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A Study on the Reasons for Sharp Decline on the Baltic Exchange Dry Index in 2008 Sung Man Jung World Maritime University

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A Study on the Reasons for Sharp Decline on the Baltic Exchange Dry Index in 2008 Sung Man Jung World Maritime University World Maritime University The Maritime Commons: Digital Repository of the World Maritime University World Maritime University Dissertations Dissertations 2015 A study on the reasons for sharp decline on the baltic exchange dry index in 2008 Sung Man Jung World Maritime University Follow this and additional works at: http://commons.wmu.se/all_dissertations Part of the International Business Commons Recommended Citation Jung, Sung Man, "A study on the reasons for sharp decline on the baltic exchange dry index in 2008" (2015). World Maritime University Dissertations. 496. http://commons.wmu.se/all_dissertations/496 This Dissertation is brought to you courtesy of Maritime Commons. Open Access items may be downloaded for non-commercial, fair use academic purposes. No items may be hosted on another server or web site without express written permission from the World Maritime University. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WORLD MARITIME UNIVERSITY Malmö Sweden A STUDY ON THE REASONS FOR SHARP DECLINE ON THE BALTIC EXCHANGE DRY INDEX IN 2008 By SUNG MAN JUNG Republic of Korea A dissertation submitted to the World Maritime University in partial Fulfilment of the requirements for the award of the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE In MARITIME AFFAIRS (PORT MANAGEMENT) 2015 Copyright Sung Man Jung, 2015 DECLARATION ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS First of all, I would like to express my gratitude to the Korea Ship Safety Technology Authority of the Republic of Korea for providing me with an opportunity to expand my knowledge of maritime affairs at World Maritime University. Especially, I would not be at WMU if there was no full support from former President and CEO Won- Chan Bu and incumbent President and CEO Ick-Soo Mok, former Managing Director George Y. Ham and current Man-Sung Han, Dal-Sung Jung, and incumbent General Manager Byung-Chun Choi, Kwang-Seong Lee, Hee-Sug Kim, Jong-Hae Choi, and my colleagues and acquaintances, those who believe and support me. My sincere appreciation also goes to my esteemed and distinguished supervisor, Professor Dr. Ilias Visvikis, who guided me in my dissertation work, and provided me with valuable advice and suggestions leading me to accomplish the dissertation. I would like to thank Jin-Young Roh and Gyoung-Boo Ryu, who has shared valuable materials to enhance understanding on the financialization of commodity market and shipping industry. Most of all, I will never forget the support from my “travelling companions” Anton, Han, Hyun, Kulay, Lawrence, Prahara, Quan, Sikhumbuzo, Sun-Bae Hong and other friends, those who stayed at the “Port of WMU” and gladly permit their valuable time to editing and brainstorming for dissertation. For their next trip, I am wishing to them the Bon Voyage. Honestly, I wish to show my honest gratitude to a teacher Inger Battista for her contribution to the final editing. Lastly, I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my wife, Yujin Seong, who encouraged me to focus on my dissertation, my hope Jiwon and Jaein, my parents and parents in law, elder sisters Woo-Ja, Seong-Ja, Gi-jong Jung, and brother Su- Man Jung, who always believe me whatever may happen. Especially, the late eldest sister(Myung-Ja Jung), who took care of me to focus on my study when I attended middle and high school in Daegu by myself. As usually, she will make pray for me forever, even though she is having “eternal rest” far away with my family. iii ABSTRACT Title of Dissertation: A Study on the reasons for sharp decline on the Baltic Exchange Dry Index in 2008 Degree: MSc This dissertation starts from the decline of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) of the Baltic Exchange in 2008 from 11,793 point to 663 point, which decreased by 94% from the peak within 7 months. To detect the reasons for the sharp decline of BDI, this dissertation has focused on the direction of research into demand and supply on shipping industry. All variables related with demand on shipping are divided into two groups - sea borne trade volume variables and the physical commodity price variables, ship dead weight tonnage (DWT) was selected as a supply variable, and Net Futures Position and Open-Interest were selected as financial market variables. On one hand, this dissertation tried to find the reasons for the collapse of BDI through the comparison of explainable power on the estimated model obtained by the empirical tests. Furthermore, in order to find the reasons for the sharp decline of BDI in 2008, this dissertation investigated correlation and causality between BDI and Seaborne trade volume, BDI and commodity price, and commodity price and financial market through the correlation test and regression analysis by empirical test. To sum up, the results of empirical test and the findings so far, this dissertation found that at least the reasons for the sharp decline in BDI did not caused by seaborne trade volume. Secondly, the increase of supply ship commitment was one of the main reasons for the collapse of BDI in line with the nature of demand and supply curves of freight market. And finally, further discussions on causality between physical- based commodity price and futures market need to be conducted by further research, due mainly to the “financialization”, which means that the role of futures market against physical-based commodity price has increased over the time of crisis. KEY WORDS: Commodity Price, Baltic Exchange Dry Index(BDI), Financialization, Futures, Sea borne Trade, Financial, Crisis, Correlation, Causality, Regression, Shipping, Tramp, Derivative, Commodity, Maritime Economics. iv Table of Contents Declaration. ................................................................................................................. ⅱ Acknowledgements. .................................................................................................... ⅲ Abstract. ...................................................................................................................... ⅳ Table of Contents. ....................................................................................................... ⅴ List of Tables. ............................................................................................................. ⅷ List of Figures. ............................................................................................................ ⅸ List of Abbreviations. ................................................................................................. ⅹ 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background. .......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Objective. .............................................................................................. 2 1.3 Overview on methodology. ................................................................... 3 1.4 Overall organization of dissertation. ..................................................... 5 2 Understanding of the shipping industry. ...................................................... 6 2.1 The nature of the shipping industry. ..................................................... 6 2.1.1 Definition and functions of shipping in global trade. ............... 6 2.1.2 Main characteristics of the shipping industry. .......................... 7 2.2 Types of shipping market. .................................................................... 8 2.2.1 Tramp. ....................................................................................... 9 2.2.2 Specialized( or Industrial) ....................................................... 11 2.2.3 Liner ........................................................................................ 12 2.3 Market equilibrium in the shipping industry. ..................................... 14 2.3.1 What is the market?. ............................................................... 14 v 2.3.2 Demand on shipping ............................................................... 15 2.3.3 Supply for the shipment of goods ........................................... 17 2.3.4 Market equilibrium in the short term ...................................... 19 2.4 What is the Baltic Exchange Dry Index(BDI)?. ................................. 21 2.4.1 The origin of BDI and trend at the time of 2008 .................... 21 2.4.2 Composition of BDI. ............................................................... 22 2.4.3 Factors affecting the changes of BDI. .................................... 23 3 Literature review and difference with precedent research ....................... 26 3.1 Review of precedent research. ............................................................ 26 3.1.1 Characteristics of tramp market .............................................. 26 3.1.2 Characteristics on commodity market volatility. .................... 28 3.1.3 Lessons from precedent research. ........................................... 30 3.2 The differentiation on methodology with precedent research. ........... 31 3.2.1 Classifying variables into physical and derivatives markets. 31 3.2.2 Finding reasons from the correlation and causality. ............... 31 4 Methodology and overview on the collapse of BDI in 2008 ...................... 33 4.1 Market conditions at the time of financial crisis in 2008. .................. 33 4.2 Outline of the empirical analysis. ....................................................... 34 4.2.1 Setting up hypotheses ...........................................................
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