water Article The Role of Climate Changes in the Spread of Freshwater Fishes: Implications for Alien Cool and Warm-Water Species in a Mediterranean Basin Antonella Carosi 1,* , Lucia Ghetti 2 and Massimo Lorenzoni 1 1 Department of Chemistry, Biology and Biotechnologies, University of Perugia, 06100 Perugia, Italy;
[email protected] 2 Forest, Economics and Mountain Territory Service, Umbria Region, 06100 Perugia, Italy;
[email protected] * Correspondence:
[email protected]; Tel.: +39-075-5855716 Abstract: In running waters, under climate change conditions, the combined effect of water warming and decreasing flow rates may encourage colonisation by invasive cool and warm-water fish species. The aim of the study was to analyze the potential climate change effects on the spread of four invasive alien fishes in the Tiber River basin, taking into account the effects of river fragmentation. Fish and environmental data collected in 91 sites over the years 1998–2018, were used to analyze temporal changes in their habitat requirements. A multivariate analysis was conducted, and the hypothesis of a range expansion towards the upstream reaches has been tested. For Barbus barbus, Gobio gobio, Padogobius bonelli and Pseudorasbora parva population abundances and body condition were analyzed. Detectability, occupancy, local extinction and colonization probabilities were estimated. We showed that B. barbus and P. bonelli have significantly extended their range toward upstream. P. parva did not Citation: Carosi, A.; Ghetti, L.; move toward higher altitudes significantly, suggesting that, at this stage, the species has probably Lorenzoni, M. The Role of Climate reached an equilibrium. River fragmentation, elevation, water temperature and average current Changes in the Spread of Freshwater speed seem to be major determinants in colonization processes, affecting the dispersal ability of Fishes: Implications for Alien Cool the species.