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Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013 Arctic Resilience Arctic Interim Report 2013 Report Interim Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013 ds an Isl n ia Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky ut le A PACIFIC Bering OCEAN Sea of Sea Kamchatka Okhotsk Gulf of Amur Alaska Koryaks r e Mts. v Anadyr i Anchorage R e n g o ains n k ount a u lyma M a R Y Ko Alask ALASKA Juneau Bering iver lyma R e Whitehorse Fairbanks (USA) Ko g Strait n e a Teslin ng R Dawson Ra y ntains s Wrangel k Mou k Chukchi rs Yakutsk y e ock oo e R Mackenzie r Island h g B Barrow Sea C n Mountains Prudhoe Bay a East Verkhoyansk R cken a zie River k M s Siberian n Inuvik ya Northwest Territories Beaufort Sea ho rk er e iv Great Bear Sea V R New a Lake S Great Slave Lake Tiksi en Ba a Yellowknife Siberian L ik sk Lake a a l t Lake Islands c Canada h Athabasca e w Banks Basin a Laptev n Island Central R ARCTIC Sea . CANADA Victoria Siberian Island OCEAN Lake Nunavut Upland Winnipeg Ta Makarov im Basin y r Churchill ge North P Arviat id e e R dg Land n RUSSIAN Resolute a i Rankin Inlet h R in lp ov s FEDERATION A os u Norilsk n la o Naujat Ellesmere m o nisey River Hudson Island L AmundsenBasin Ye Alert e r Bay i v Franz R Foxe d b n Qaanaaq Josef N O Basin a Nansen l o West James Land v Is Nansen-Gakkel Ridge Basin a Ya Bay mal P in y eni Siberian Ungava Hudson ff Baffin a nsu a Kara la Strait B Bay Z Plain Peninsula e SVALBARD m Sea Salekhard O b Québec Iqaluit (NORWAY) ly R Khanty-Mansiysk a i v e r Vorkuta Irt ys Longyearbyen h Fram Barents Naryan-Mar Sisimiut Ilulissat Strait E Ural Mountains Davis L Sea C Strait Bjørnøya IR GREENLAND C Nuuk Greenland IC (DENMARK) T C K Labrador Sea R a A Syktyvkar m a Murmansk Perm R Jan i Ammassalik Tromsø Kola Arkhangelsk v N. Dvina e Mayen Peninsula White r F Sea I Norwegian N L Lake Sea Y A V o N Onega l A g a Reykjavik N D W Lake R E i v R Ladoga e D r O E Helsinki Moscow FAROE St. Petersburg Torshavn N ISLANDS W (DENMARK) Oslo S ATLANTIC Stockholm OCEAN North Sea Baltic Copenhagen Sea DENMARK Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013 i First published in 2013 by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre Scientific Coordinator:Annika E. Nilsson, Stockholm Environment Institute Project Management Team: Katarina Axelsson, Stockholm Environment Institute Marcus Carson, Stockholm Environment Institute Sarah Cornell, Stockholm Resilience Centre Ulf Molau, Stockholm Resilience Centre Cathy Wilkinson, Stockholm Resilience Centre Language editors: Marion Davis and Tom Gill, Stockholm Environment Institute Design and layout: Anke van Lenteren and Jared Farrell, Van Lenteren Design Graphics: Hugo Ahlenius, Nordpil Cover credits: Front cover Arctic sea ice on September 16, 2012 © NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio –The Blue Marble data is courtesy of Reto Stockli (NASA/GSFC) Icebergs off the coast of Greenland © Lawrence Hislop, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Alina Serotetto with reindeer © Bruce C. Forbes, Arctic Centre, University of Lapland Inside front cover Map of the Arctic region © Hugo Ahlenius, nordpil.com Created with data from: Natural Earth Project. 2011. Natural Earth version 1.3. Retrieved February 3, 2011, from http://www.naturalearthdata.com/downloads/ Patterson, T. 2006. CleanTOPO2 3D. Retrieved November 5, 2010, from http://www.shadedrelief.com/cleantopo2/ Printing: Danagård LITHO on Profisilk paper This publication should be cited as: Arctic Council (2013). Arctic Resilience Interim Report 2013. Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm. Individual chapters should be cited by chapter author/s. This report is available to download at no charge from: www.arctic-council.org/arr Contact information: ARR Secretariat Stockholm Environment Institute and Stockholm Resilience Centre Email: [email protected] Website: www.arctic-council.org/arr © Arctic Council 2013 ISBN 978-91-86125-42-4 (Print) ISBN 978-91-86125-43-1 (PDF) ii The Arctic Resilience Report (ARR) is an Arctic Council project led by the Stockholm Environment Institute and the Stockholm Resilience Centre. It builds on collaboration with Arctic countries and indigenous peoples in the region, as well as several Arctic scientific organizations. The ARR was approved as an Arctic Council project at the Senior Arctic Official’s meeting in November 2011. The ARR was initiated by the Swedish Ministry of the Environment as a priority for the Swedish Chairmanship of the Arctic Council (May 2011 – May 2013) and continues until May 2015. Project Steering Committee (PSC) The ARR project is governed by a Project Steering Committee, which consists of representatives of Arctic Council Member States, Permanent Participants and Working Groups, as well as representatives of collaborating organizations. PSC members are listed below. Chair Representatives of Collaborating Organizations Rockström, Johan – Stockholm Resilience Centre and Arctic Council Observers Forbes, Bruce C. – International Study of Arctic Change Member States and Permanent Participants Hansen, Ketil – University of the Arctic Murray, David – Canada Hik, David – International Arctic Science Committee Nuttall, Mark – Denmark Kofinas, Gary – Resilience Alliance Mähönen, Outi – Finland Kuylenstierna, Johan L. – Stockholm Environment Einarsson, Niels – Iceland Institute Holmén, Kim - Norway McGlade, Jacqueline – European Environment Agency Syroechkovskiy, Evgeny – Russian Federation Sommerkorn, Martin – WWF Global Arctic Lilliesköld, Marianne – Sweden Programme Clement, Joel – United States Vlasova, Tatiana – International Arctic Social Science Gamble, Jim – Aleut International Association Association Dickson, Cindy – Arctic Athabaskan Council Linklater, Joseph / Thompson, Amy – Gwich’in Council International Meakin, Stephanie – Inuit Circumpolar Council Berezhkov, Dmitry – Russian Association of Indigenous Peoples of the North, Siberia and Far East Mathiesen, Svein D. – Saami Council Arctic Council Working Groups Israelson, Ann-Sofi – Arctic Contaminants Action Programme Fuglestad, Jon L. – Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme Barry, Tom – Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna Lunde, Synnove – Emergency Preparedness and Response Gudmundottir, Soffia – Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Pilozzi, Bruno – Sustainable Development Working Group of the Arctic Council iii Contributing experts (Alphabetical order) Alessa, Lillian Meakin, Stephanie Alfthan, Bjørn Molau, Ulf Amundsen, Helene Mustonen, Tero Berman, Matthew Kofinas, Gary Berkes, Fikret Koivurova, Timo Broderstad, Ann Ragnhild Mathiesen, Svein D. Carmack, Eddy McLennan, Donald Chapin III, F. Stuart Nilsson, Annika E. Clark, Douglas Nilsson, Lena Maria Corell, Robert Nuttall, Mark Cornell, Sarah Olsen, Julia Crépin, Anne-Sophie Oskal, Anders Degteva, Anna Overduin, Paul Eira, Ravdna Biret M. Quinlan, Allyson Eira, Inger Marie G. Rasmussen, Rasmus Ole Evengård, Birgitta Robards, Martin Forbes, Bruce C. Roue, Marie Forchhammer, Mads Sara, Mikkel Nils Ford, James Skum, Eli R. Gerlach, Craig Sommerkorn, Martin Heleniak, Timothy Turi, Ellen Inga Henry, Colleen Turi, Johan Mathis Hovelsrud, Grete Vlasova, Tatiana Jeppesen, Erik Wassmann, Paul Johansson,Margareta Wilkinson, Cathy Johnsen, Kathrine I. Workman, Linaya Jorgenson, Torre Young, Oran Acknowledgements We gratefully acknowledge the financial support provided to this project from the following sources: the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency, the Swedish Research Council (Formas) and the Nordic Council of Ministers. We also thank our collaborating partners for their support and vital contributions to the development of this report: University of the Arctic; International Arctic Science Committee; International Study of Arctic Change; International Arctic Social Science Association; European Environment Agency; WWF Global Arctic Programme. Finally, we thank all reviewers for their thoughtful suggestions, which have greatly improved the manuscript. We especially want to thank IASC for organizing the review process. iv Table of contents Part I 1 Chapter 1 The Arctic Resilience Report: Background, aims and scope 3 1.1 Rapid and pervasive change 3 1.2 A resilience lens to Arctic change 4 1.3 Aims and project overview 5 1.4 The ARR in relation to other Arctic Council processes 7 1.5 The ARR approach 9 Chapter 2 A resilience approach to social‑ecological systems: Central concepts and concerns 15 2.1 Introduction 15 2.2 What is resilience? 15 2.3 Social-ecological systems 16 2.4 Ecosystem services link ecosystems and society 19 2.5 Assessing resilience 21 2.6 Resilience assessment as part of policy processes 23 Chapter 3 Indigenous perceptions of resilience 27 3.1 Introduction 27 3.2 Traditional knowledge and resilience 27 3.3 North America 30 3.4 Eurasian North 31 Part II 35 Chapter 4 Thresholds in the Arctic 37 4.1 Introduction 37 4.2 Developing theoretical backgrounds for the ARR thresholds analysis 38 4.3 Biophysical thresholds in the Arctic 46 4.4 Social thresholds in the Arctic 56 4.5 Outlook for feedbacks and thresholds in social-ecological systems 62 4.6 Conclusions, key findings, and the process ahead 64 Part III 71 Chapter 5 Adaptive and transformative capacity 73 5.1 Introduction 73 5.2 Dimensions of adaptation 77 5.3 Sources of adaptive capacity in the Arctic context 79 5.4 Noting regional differences 84 5.5 Adaptation and governance 84 5.6 Governance for adaptation 86 5.7 Transformative capacity – determinants and prospects for the Arctic 88 5.8 Conclusion, key findings, and the process ahead 90 v Part IV 95 Chapter 6 Purpose and scope
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