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Fall 11-2013 Every Picture Tells a Story: The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Robert G. Boatright Clark University

James R. Gomes Clark University

Diana Evans Trinity College

John Baughman Bates College

Nicholas M. Giner Clark University

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Recommended Citation Boatright, Robert G.; Gomes, James R.; Evans, Diana; Baughman, John; Giner, Nicholas M.; Scala, Dante J.; Najjar, Amelia; and Rossi, Nicholas, "Every Picture Tells a Story: The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England" (2013). Mosakowski Institute for Public Enterprise. 26. https://commons.clarku.edu/mosakowskiinstitute/26

This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Academic Departments, Centers & Programs at Clark Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Mosakowski Institute for Public Enterprise by an authorized administrator of Clark Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected], [email protected]. Every Picture Tells a Story: The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England

Abstract The nitU ed States Constitution requires that the number of representatives in Congress be reapportioned among the states based on a decennial census, and the U.S. Supreme Court ruled half a century ago that congressional districts within each state must be, as nearly as practicable, equal in population. However, the actual drawing of district lines for our national lower house and the methods employed for doing so are largely left ot the individual states. Redistricting thus presents a fertile field for the comparative examination of state politics and political institutions.

Keywords Redistricting, New England

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Part of the Constitutional Law Commons, Law and Politics Commons, and the Political Science Commons

Authors Robert G. Boatright, James R. Gomes, Diana Evans, John Baughman, Nicholas M. Giner, Dante J. Scala, Amelia Najjar, and Nicholas Rossi

This article is available at Clark Digital Commons: https://commons.clarku.edu/mosakowskiinstitute/26 Every Picture Tells A Story

THE 2010 ROUND OF CONGRESSIONAL REDISTRICTING IN NEW ENGLAND

Mosakowski Institute for public Enterprise

Robert Boatright and Jim Gomes, Editors November 2013 The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England

1 Introduction 3 Redistricting in Connecticut, 2011-2012 Diana Evans

8 Can’t Get There From Here: Maine’s Circuitous 2011 Redistricting John Baughman

13 Redistricting Massachusetts 2012: A More Open Process, a More Rational Map, and No Indictments Robert G. Boatright, Nicholas M. Giner and James R. Gomes

21 New Hampshire’s Congressional Redistricting Dante J. Scala

24 Redistricting in Rhode Island: A Zero-Sum Game Amelia Najjar and Nicholas Rossi Every Picture Tells a Story: The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England

Introduction In the spring of 2012, we were privileged to organize and present a panel on “Redistricting in New England” at the Annual Meeting of the New England Political Science Association (NEPSA) in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. This booklet consists of papers that are based on the presentations made by the panelists and, in one case (Rhode Island), a paper written by two of our students in a 2011 Congressional Redistricting course at Clark University.

The United States Constitution requires that • the possibility of achieving partisan gain — even the number of representatives in Congress be in the “zero sum” situation of the two-district reapportioned among the states based on a decennial states — through the delicate calculus of improving census, and the U.S. Supreme Court ruled half a a party’s chances enough to win one district, while century ago that congressional districts within each diminishing their chances just enough so as not to state must be, as nearly as practicable, equal in lose the other (Maine, New Hampshire, and Rhode population. However, the actual drawing of district Island); lines for our national lower house and the methods 1 • the possibility that, because of the unusual state employed for doing so are largely left to the individual laws regarding the allocation of electoral votes, states. Redistricting thus presents a fertile field for redistricting could conceivably affect the outcome the comparative examination of state politics and of a future presidential election (Maine); political institutions. • the role of independent, nonpartisan redistricting New England has become, by many measures, the entities in redrawing a state’s district lines most Democratic-leaning region in the United States. (Connecticut and Maine); It might seem, at first, that this would make redistricting in this region rather uninteresting. However, in four • the appeal, to legislators, judges, and citizens, of of its five states that redrew congressional district maintaining the status quo or something close to it lines after the 2010 census (Vermont, because of its when drawing new district boundaries (Connecticut, small population, has had but one district since 1933), Maine, and New Hampshire). partisan considerations played a significant part in the recent round of redistricting. As the papers collected here vividly demonstrate, the outcomes of each state’s redistricting processes reflect the interplay of a variety of factors: • the very different responses by the majority party in the state legislature to a perceived electoral threat to a co-partisan member of Congress (New Hampshire and Rhode Island);

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England The only state where complete one-party control of struck by our students’ interest in the process and their the congressional delegation appeared secure from the efforts to consider the broader public interest in their outset — Massachusetts — was also the only state in own line-drawing efforts. We offer these essays with the region that was losing a seat, due to the Bay State’s the hope that we can add to the historical record that slow growth relative to the rest of the nation over will guide policymakers and citizens the next time New the past decade. The “musical chairs” nature of that England’s congressional district lines are drawn. process was unique in the region for this decade. We are grateful for the knowledge, insight, and One theme that emerges from this examination of expository skills of all of our colleagues who authored the 2010 round of redistricting in the five states is the the articles in this compendium: John Baughman, relative invisibility of the process to voters. There are Diana Evans, Amelia Najjar, Nicholas Rossi, and Dante many possible explanations for this. It may be because Scala. We also thank Maureen Moakley who made most voters tended to wind up in a similar district to the presentation on Rhode Island at the Portsmouth their previous one, because most voters calculated meeting and advised on the Rhode Island article herein. that line-drawing decisions would have little impact We owe a special debt of thanks to Nicholas Giner, on things they cared about, or simply because voters our co-author on the Massachusetts article, who also were unaware of the process (an unawareness no applied his skills as a geographer to produce the maps 2 doubt abetted by the relative lack of media coverage for each of the state articles. Finally, we gratefully of redistricting). Whatever the reason, the state-by- acknowledge the generous support of Clark University’s state accounts here show that there is little citizen Mosakowski Institute for Public Enterprise, which made engagement in the redistricting process. Also, because both the NEPSA panel and this booklet possible. of the relative homogeneity of the population in the region and its relatively placid recent history regarding voter qualifications and procedures, considerations of race and the Voting Rights Act played only a small role in the region’s drawing of new district lines. We are publishing these articles in part because we believe that today, far more than in previous years, citizens have the tools to engage constructively in redistricting. In our experience at Clark teaching Jim GOMES Robert Boatright students about the process (discussed in our article Director Associate Professor “Teaching Redistricting to Undergraduates: Letting Mosakowski Institute for Political Science the People Draw the Lines for the People’s House,” PS: Public Enterprise Clark University Clark University Political Science & Politics 46 (2): 387-394), we were Redistricting in Connecticut, 2011-2012 Diana Evans*

Redistricting in Connecticut is not the However, if the commission fails to Redistricting in 2001: usual raw partisan affair, although meet the November 30 deadline Connecticut Loses a partisanship plays a significant role. or if an adopted plan is appealed, District The Connecticut Constitution, Article the Connecticut Supreme Court In the 1990s, Connecticut’s population III, Section 6, requires the appointment takes over. The court may order the grew less than that of many other of a bipartisan “reapportionment redistricting commission to alter its states; as a consequence, the state lost committee” by legislative leaders of plan or it may draw up its own plan. one of its six congressional districts both parties; the committee consists The Supreme Court must issue or in the 2001 reapportionment. Not of an equal number of Republicans and approve a final plan by February 15. In surprisingly, the ensuing redistricting Democrats. The timeline is as follows: 2011, the commission failed to adopt process was unusually contentious but a plan for Congress and the Supreme By Feb. 15, “the general assembly shall nevertheless produced a bipartisan Court intervened. appoint a reapportionment committee compromise: it essentially combined consisting of four members of the Redistricting in Connecticut is the 5th District, represented by senate, two who shall be designated designed to be controlled by the Democrat Jim Maloney, and the 6th by the president pro tempore of General Assembly’s party leadership; District, held by Republican Nancy the senate and two who shall be therefore, partisanship is inevitably Johnson. The commission did so designated by the minority leader of and intentionally at the heart of the by shifting the boundaries of the the senate, and four members of the process. However, each party is given surrounding districts in such a way that house of representatives, two who equal power; even the appointment of their partisan balance was not upset, shall be designated by the speaker the ninth member must be minimally and by drawing the new 5th district 3 of the house of representatives bipartisan. As long as the redistricting to make it as competitive as possible, and two who shall be designated commission controls the process, giving both incumbents a reasonable 1 by the minority leader of the house any plan to which it agrees must chance of winning it. of representatives” (Connecticut be bipartisan. If the commission is The resulting 5th district encompassed Constitution, Article III, Section 6). committed to devising a plan before much of northwestern portion of the Those leaders virtually always select the Supreme Court has a chance to state. Approximately 21 percent of the themselves and a top deputy or other take over, each party can be expected population is in Republican-leaning loyalist. to minimize its losses. That is because Litchfield County, which had been part neither party is in a position to make If that committee agrees on a plan of Johnson’s old district. Some of the major gains at the other party’s before Sept. 15, it is presented to the more Democratic-leaning cities of the expense, as would be the case with General Assembly, which must adopt of old 5th district, cities that had been purely partisan gerrymandering. the plan by a 2/3 majority for it to take in Maloney’s base, were also included Thus, if the two parties enjoy an even effect. If the redistricting committee in the new 5th district. However, in the division of seats, any plan to which the fails to adopt a plan by Sept. 15, the interest of creating a competitive 5th commission agrees is likely to protect governor is required to appoint a district and protecting incumbents in the status quo, meaning incumbents. “reapportionment commission” which, the other four districts, one of the key in practice, consists of the existing However, several factors can Democratic towns — Bristol — was eight-member committee and a ninth introduce a potentially destabilizing carved out and placed in the heavily member chosen within thirty days by set of threats and opportunities: Democratic 1st district, as were some the original eight members. Although the loss or gain of a seat in the of the smaller Republican-leaning the ninth member obviously was decennial reapportionment, the towns of the northeastern part of the intended to serve as a tie-breaker, emergence of one or more open old 6th district. The resulting 2001 historically he played that role only in seats, or the existence of substantial map (Figure 1) was characterized the 1981 redistricting; in other years, seat advantage to one party. by a “claw” shape (formed by the that member has been neutral, as he Such circumstances increase the 1st district) on its eastern boundary, was, by explicit agreement among incentive for one party or the other commission members, in 2011. If the to withhold agreement and gamble 1 The Republican, Nancy Johnson, won the 2002 commission adopts a redistricting plan on the Supreme Court. That is what election by a relatively narrow 54 percent. by a simple majority by November 30, happened in 2011-12. *Professor of Political Science, Trinity College the plan becomes law. The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting IN CONNECTICUT, 2011-2012

laying the groundwork for a Republican The committee held six public hearings challenge to any Democratic map that in July 2011, in Hartford (two hearings), preserved that shape. New Haven, Norwich, Norwalk and Waterbury. Testimony was given by In the first two elections following the a number of state House members 2001 redistricting, Republicans enjoyed as well as citizens’ groups such as an advantage, holding three of the Common Cause and the Latino and five House seats (including the new Puerto Rican Affairs Commission, along 5th District), despite the fact that the with a number of interested individuals. state had been trending Democratic Much of the testimony pertained to for a number of years. However, in the state legislative districts, but there Democratic wave elections of 2006 was some comment on congressional and 2008, all three Republicans lost Figure 1: Connecticut Congressional districts as well. Districts, 2002-2010 their seats, upsetting the partisan balance and giving Republican The Reapportionment Committee redistricters in 2011 less to lose by (as it was officially known) took as proposing a more radical redistricting its first task the redrawing of the plan, one that was virtually certain to state’s 187 House and Senate districts. throw the decision to the Supreme The Committee acknowledged on Court. September 9 that, as in 1991 and 2001, it would fail to meet its Sept. 4 15 deadline to redraw lines for the Redistricting in 2011 state districts, necessitating the The leaders of each party in each appointment of a ninth member. chamber appointed themselves and a (Pazniokas, Sept. 9, 2011). After the member of their respective leadership Sept. 15 deadline, the Committee teams to the redistricting committee. officially became the Reapportionment Figure 2: House/Senate Congressional District Exchange, 11/10/2011 The co-chairs were Senate President Commission and appointed former Pro Tempore Donald Williams (D) Democratic State Auditor Kevin and House Minority Leader Lawrence Johnston as its ninth member. in an effort to keep redistricting in the Cafero (R). The other two legislative However, the Commission, following hands of legislative leaders, extended leaders on the committee were House past precedent, was committed not the Commission’s deadline until Speaker Christopher Donovan (D) to cede the process to Johnston’s December 21. and Senate Minority Leader John potentially tie-breaking vote; rather, In Connecticut, congressional districts McKinney (R). However, Speaker they decided either to reach a have to be (as in every other state) Donovan, as a candidate for the bipartisan compromise or turn the as nearly equal in population as open 5th District House seat, was process over to the Supreme Court practicable. Given shifts in the state’s pressured by Republicans to resign for the first time ever (Pazniokas, population of 3,574,097 (United States (although that pressure did not come November 30, 2011). Indeed, according Census 2010), the largest change from the Republican members of the to the Connecticut Mirror, Johnston was was to be made to the 2nd District, commission itself), which he did on not part of the daily negotiations at all comprising the entire eastern portion of Nov. 30 after the state legislative (Pazniokas, Nov. 22, 2011). the state; 15,000 people in that district district plan was completed but The Commission unanimously would have to be moved to adjacent before significant work began on the approved state legislative districts in districts to produce an average district congressional map. He appointed late November, but had made little size across the state of approximately Majority Leader Brendan Sharkey to progress on congressional districts, 714,819 people. Although it is not take his place. ensuring that formal control of the legally required, redistricters generally redistricting process would pass to the attempt not to split any of the state’s Supreme Court. However, the Court, 169 towns into more than one district.

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting IN CONNECTICUT, 2011-2012

Figure 3: Map Proposed by Connecticut Figure 4: Democratic (left) and Republican Plans Compared Republicans

The large number of towns relative to to New Haven, another overwhelming compactness of the district. Their population makes this relatively easy to Democratic city. That change would map eliminated the 1st District’s achieve, with only a few exceptions as have left the 4th district even more claw around heavily Democratic New required to achieve population equality heavily dominated by affluent Fairfield Britain, drawing that city into the 1st or political goals. County, with its more Republican District and moving back into the inclinations. This proposal prompted 5th District six Republican-leaning If the objective were to maintain the accusations from minority group towns currently in the northwestern 5 status quo, the relatively small changes representatives, including the NAACP, part of the 1st District: Colebrook, required by population shifts between that Republicans were attempting Hartland, Barkhamsted, New Hartford 2000 and 2001 would mean that the to “bleach” the 4th District without and Granby. Figure 4 compares pre-existing partisan balance could significantly increasing the probability the Democrats’ and Republicans’ rather easily be maintained. Thus, of electing a minority representative in proposals. the Commission’s four Democrats the 3rd District. proposed a map that largely However, Democrats, especially maintained existing boundaries, while By the court-imposed December African-American Democrats, shifting lines slightly to add population 21 deadline, Republicans on the strenuously opposed those changes as to all but the 2nd District (Figure 2). redistricting commission had backed well: although the 1st District’s minority off that proposal but continued to population would have grown from 35 Yet despite the fact that the largest pursue the second part of their plan, percent to 40 percent, the minority changes were required in the which involved drawing the 5th population in the 5th District would eastern part of the state, Republican District’s lines in a manner more have declined from 27 percent to 20 redistricters focused on the western favorable to Republican candidates percent. Given that the 1st District was districts, where they saw the greatest (Altimari, Dec. 22, 2011). As the already solidly Democratic and the 5th potential for gains (Figure 3). They 5th District was to be an open seat District was much more competitive, proposed a map that would have made in 2012, it offered the best chance that change might have resulted in a the newly Democratic 4th District for a Republican gain in 2012. The net decline in minority group influence solidly Republican, and shifted the 5th Republican plan again moved a heavily by making it no more likely that the 1st to a more Republican leaning as well. Democratic city — New Britain — District would elect a Democrat and Indeed, until Democrat Jim Himes’ from the 5th District to the already less likely that the 5th District would defeat of Chris Shays in 2008, the Democratic 1st District. It also moved do so. “Black and Latino politicians, all 4th district had consistently elected Torrington, which is competitive, and Democrats, said the Republicans’ claim moderate Republicans to the House. some smaller Republican towns from that their plan would have enhanced The Republicans’ major proposal for the 1st into the 5th; both changes chances for a minority candidate to that district would have moved the would make the 5th more Republican. eventually be elected in the 1st was Democratic city of Bridgeport out a pretext. If the GOP was interested of the 4th District into the already To accomplish this goal, Republican in helping minorities, they might heavily Democratic 3rd District, home map-makers increased the

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting IN CONNECTICUT, 2011-2012

2. In developing the plan, the Special and 3rd districts, would be united in the Master shall modify the existing 3rd. Torrington, which is split between congressional districts only to the 1st and 5th, would be unchanged” the extent reasonably required to (Pazniokas, January 6, 2012). comply with the following applicable In a public hearing before the special legal requirements: master, held on Jan. 9, Republican a. Districts shall be as equal in commission members argued correctly population as is practicable. that the current 5th district acquired its “bizarre” shape as a result of the b. Districts shall be made of merging of districts in 2001. Given that contiguous territory. the 5th District was gerrymandered Figure 5: Special Master’s Plan; c. The plan shall comply with 42 to make it competitive between two Connecticut Congressional Districts 2012 U.S.c. § 1973(b) and with other incumbents, Republicans essentially applicable provisions of the Voting argued that its lines should not be Rights Act and federal law. considered sacrosanct and that have consulted with the legislature’s greater compactness should and easily Black and Puerto Rican Caucus, said 3. In no event shall the plan of the could be achieved in redistricting. Rep. Gary Holder-Winfield, D-New Special Master be substantially As Republicans argued in an earlier Haven. ‘That didn’t happen,’ he said” less compact than the existing brief to the Supreme Court, between (Pazniokas, Dec. 21, 2011). congressional districts and in no the reapportionment of 1964, when 6 event shall the plan of the Special Given the disparity between the two Connecticut was awarded its sixth Master substantially violate parties’ proposals and the lack of congressional district, and 1991, the town lines more than the existing incentive of either to compromise, the maps “reflected compact districts and congressional districts. (Supreme commission failed to reach agreement aligned communities of interest.” Thus, Court, Jan. 23, 2012) by its court-imposed deadline of Dec. Republicans argued that the Court 21. House Minority Leader Lawrence The key to the eventual outcome is in should return to that standard and treat Cafero said that the two parties had the instructions on compactness: in (3) the 2001 map as an anomaly. (Supreme agreed on all but 13 towns, “with most above, the Court ordered that districts Court, Reply of the Republican of the disagreement centering around not be made less compact than they Members of the Reapportionment the ragged border of the 1st and 5th currently were, but did not require that Commission, 2011). districts. ‘I think it boils down to New they be made more compact, a key By contrast, Democrats argued that Britain,’ Cafero said” (Pazniokas, Dec. feature of the Republican proposal. their own map, which largely preserved 21, 2011). Given that the special master was the status quo, had stood the test of also ordered to approve only minimal On December 28, the Hartford time and had not been subject to legal changes to the existing map, it was Courant reported that the Supreme challenges. Moreover, they noted that unlikely that he, or, more importantly, Court would appoint a special master the district had proved competitive, as the Court, would approve the (from candidates nominated by it had been won twice by a Republican Republican proposal. commission members) to redraw the and three times by a Democrat. district lines. On December 30, the Indeed, the Democratic proposal had On January 13, Special Master Persily Court chose political scientist and the clear advantage. As the Connecticut issued his draft report; as instructed, lawyer Nathan Persily of the Columbia Mirror reported, “The Democratic plan he made minimal changes to the University Law School. Within days, makes no changes in 164 of the 169 existing map (Figure 5). He noted the Court essentially tied the special towns. It equalizes the populations that while his plan achieved slightly master’s hands, issuing the following of the districts by shifting the lines in greater compactness, “Both the Special instructions: four communities currently divided Master’s Plan and the Democrats’ Plan between two districts: Glastonbury, reunite Durham and split Glastonbury, Middletown, Shelton and Waterbury. Middletown, Shelton, Torrington, and Durham, now split between the 2nd

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting IN CONNECTICUT, 2011-2012

Waterbury” (Persily 2012, p. 25). References Pazniokas, Mark. Jan. 6, 2012. “GOP Thus, the towns contested by the Altimari, Daniela. Dec. 22, 2011. Bends, Democrats Stand Pat on Republicans stayed where they were “Lawmakers Can’t Agree on Districts,” Congressional Map,” The Connecticut placed in 2001. Hartford Courant, p. B1. Mirror, http://www.ctmirror.org/ story/14981/gop-bends-democrats- On February 10, only five days ahead Pazniokas, Mark. Sept. 9, 2011. stand-pat-congressional-map (April of the Constitutional deadline, the “Wanted: Elder Statesman; Must 20, 2011). Connecticut Supreme Court adopted Like Puzzles,” The Connecticut Mirror, the special master’s recommended http://www.ctmirror.org/story/13891/ Persily, Nathan. Jan. 13, 2012. “Draft map, handing victory to the Democratic wanted-elder-statesman-must-puzzles Report and Plan of the Special members of the Reapportionment (April 20, 2011). Master.” http://www.cga.ct.gov/ Commission and setting the stage for red2011/documents/special_master/ a more competitive race for the open Pazniokas, Mark. Nov. 22, 2011. “Malloy Merged%20Draft%20Report%20 5th District seat than the Republicans Turns Up Heat on Redistricting Panel,” with%20Exhibits.pdf. (Accessed April would have preferred. Republicans’ The Connecticut Mirror, http://www. 22, 2012). fears were realized in 2012 as ctmirror.org/story/14595/malloy- Supreme Court, State of Connecticut, Democrat Elizabeth Esty won the seat turns-heat-redistricting-panel (April No. SC 18907. In RE Petition of by a 52 to 48 percent margin. The 20, 2011). Reapportionment Commission, Ex. Rel. state’s other four representatives all Pazniokas, Mark. Nov. 30, 2011. January 3, 2012. won comfortably. “Redistricting: General Assembly is Set, Supreme Court, State of Connecticut, 7 Not Congress,” The Connecticut Mirror, http://www.ctmirror.org/story/14659/ No. SC 18907. In RE Petition of redistricting-general-assembly-set- Reapportionment. REPLY OF THE not-congress (April 20, 2011). REPUBLICAN MEMBERS OF THE CONNECTICUT Pazniokas, Mark. Dec. 21, 2011. “Congressional Map to be Drawn by REAPPORTIONMENT the Supreme Court,” The Connecticut COMMISSION TO THE MOTION Mirror, http://www.ctmirror.org/ AND MEMORANDUM OF THE story/14874/congressional-map-be- DEMOCRATIC MEMBERS, filed Dec. drawn-supreme-court (April 20, 2011). 21, 2011. http://www.cga.ct.gov/ red2011/documents/final/Brief_ Republicans.pdf (Accessed April 22, 2012).

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Can’t Get There From Here: Maine’s Circuitous 2011 Redistricting John Baughman*

Nationally, the 2010 election gave from using their majority to reshape Two more recent deviations from Republicans not only a large majority Maine electoral politics, although they national practice are relevant here. in the U.S. House of Representatives could claim a small victory in shifting First, since the 1972 election Maine by recent standards — and their the redistricting calendar to conform to has allocated its Electoral College largest caucus since the Truman the rest of the country. votes by congressional district, one Administration — but enough victories elector per district plus two for the in state legislatures to suggest they candidate winning the statewide could use the redistricting process History and Process vote. Second, by state law starting to maintain their majority past 2012. Maine is one of three states that in 1983, congressional redistricting After that election, they had legislative use an advisory panel to hold public has been conducted in the third year majorities in 25 states, the most since hearings and to draft redistricting after a decennial census, rather than 1928. This gave Republicans arguably recommendations for the state in the second year as in every other their greatest advantage in redistricting legislature, here called the Legislative state. Both of these variants, the latter in a century, and certainly since the Apportionment Commission. The unique in the country and the former advent of the modern redistricting commission has 15 members, seven nearly so, affected party strategy in the 1 process in 1962. appointed by the Democrats and redistricting that occurred following the 2010 census. The results in Maine seemed to be seven by the Republicans, with the of a piece. For the first time in almost fifteenth member selected by the half a century, Republicans won the other commissioners and serving as 2 Republican Gambit governorship and majorities in both chair. In practice, because the major 8 chambers of the state legislature. parties typically submit two competing The strategy of Maine Republicans had Not only had the party won control, plans for consideration, this means two linked elements, to draw a map but the conservative Tea Party wing the recommended plan is determined more favorable to their candidates and was ascendant at the expense of the by that fifteenth commissioner. After to change the date the map would take more moderate state Republican a recommendation has been made, effect in order to increase its impact. establishment. To the surprise of the legislature has 120 days to act. To redraw the map, the most direct many both inside the party and out, Congressional redistricting in Maine route would be to have it approved conservatives were able to replace the occurs through an act of the legislature, by the commission, and they would establishment’s party platform with a signed by the governor, and requires need to convince its nonpartisan chair. much more conservative, Tea Party- a two-thirds vote of each chamber. As a result, in addition to a strategic inspired alternative (Wickenheiser Should they fail to act by the deadline, motivation the plan put forward had 2010). With these victories came the Maine Supreme Judicial Court also a public rationale. takes responsibility for the redistricting. great expectations, including the hope Ever since Maine went from three that redrawing the state’s legislative In other ways Maine has been even congressional districts to two following and congressional districts might help more unusual in its electoral practices. the 1960 census, the line dividing Republicans. As one Republican voter Throughout much of the 19th century, the first district from the second has said at a public hearing on the party’s election dates varied widely from state followed a very similar path: map, elections have consequences. to state, sometimes by more than a year. An 1872 federal law standardized Nevertheless, the experience in 1 Because there was no reapportionment following the Maine appears at odds with these federal elections on the first Tuesday 1920 census, the last time the Republican Party had expectations. After Republicans after the first Monday in November of such influence over redistricting was after the 1910 even numbered years. However, that census. proposed a bold redrawing of the 2 To be more specific, three commissioners are selected state’s two congressional districts, the law made an exception for those states by the state House majority leader and three by which had an election date specified in the minority leader, two each from the state Senate state legislature approved a plan that majority and minority leaders, one by the chair of the was nearly identical to the previous their state constitutions. So it was for Maine Democratic Party, and one by the chair of the Maine. Not until 1958, several decades Maine Republican Party. Each party’s contingent of map and provided the GOP negligible six appointees chooses a seventh from the public, and advantage. Institutional and political after the last state, did it revert to the these two partisan commissioners select the fifteenth constraints prevented Republicans national standard. member. *Associate Professor of Political Science, Bates College

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Maine’s Circuitous 2011 Redistricting

A southern, largely coastal district Republicans two seats in the House. As ranged from Kittery at the New a further constraint on the Democrats, Hampshire border northeast to they insisted that any redistricting plan Camden and inland to Augusta, with ought to leave a population difference the second district comprising the of only a single resident, as theirs did. much sparser and more expansive The second prong in their strategy remainder of the state. The two involved moving the effective date for districts corresponded roughly to Maine’s congressional redistricting what some call the “two Maines” to 2012 in order to conform to the with one poorer, more rural and more rest of the country. Under state law, conservative than the other (Fried redistricting would not occur until 2013 2012). Adjustments to account for and take effect with the 2014 midterm population migrations following Baker election. Two Republicans living in the v. Carr involved shifting towns from the 1st district, which had gained several first district to the second — usually thousand residents since the previous Figure 1: Maine Congressional Districts, in Kennebec, Waldo and Knox census compared with the 2nd, filed 2002-2010 counties — creating districts that suit in federal district court, arguing became progressively even more that this diluted the value of their vote divergent in their land mass and in the 2012 election in violation of the urbanicity. Figure 1 shows Maine’s two one-person, one-vote principle outlined 9 congressional districts as they stood in Baker v. Carr (Hench 2011). Named before redistricting. as defendants were Gov. Paul LePage, Instead, Republicans proposed using President of the Maine Senate Kevin a north-south boundary to divide the Raye, Speaker of the Maine House first and second districts, as shown in Robert Nutting, and Maine Secretary Figure 2. It was a dramatic shift from of State Charles Summers. All these practices of the previous half century, defendants, however, were Republicans and also yielded a sharp contrast with and supportive of the lawsuit, and Raye the Democratic plan (shown in Figure was running in the Republican primary 3), which would retain something far to be the party’s nominee for the 2nd closer to the status quo. In a state of district race. 1.3 million people, about 300,000 Figure 2: Maine Congressional Although Republicans did not say would have changed districts under the Districts — Republican Plan so publicly, presidential politics Republican plan whereas only a few helped to motivate their strategy. thousand would have done so in the The reason has to do with another incremental Democratic alternative. of Maine’s peculiarities. As noted The Maine GOP reasoned that their above, since the 1972 election Maine plan would reduce the socioeconomic has allocated its Electoral College divisions between the two districts, votes by congressional district. It has but the Republican plan, would also not yet resulted in a split vote, but it serve a strategic purpose. The shifts has affected election strategy in the would have added far more Republican state on multiple occasions.3 Ross voters to the first district, making the Perot came closest in 1992, finishing seat less safely Democratic, and at less than five percentage points away the same time the current Democratic incumbents, Chellie Pingree and Mike Michaud, would be forced to 3 Nebraska, which has also allocated its electors by congressional district since 1992, did split its votes in run against each other in the second 2008, with Barack Obama winning the 2nd district in district (Metzler 2011). If the cards Omaha while John McCain won the other Nebraska Figure 3: Maine Congressional districts and the state popular vote. fell right, the strategy could net Districts — Democratic Plan The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England from winning an elector. With the Democratic Response Outcome state becoming more Democratic over The Democrats chose to defend the The first shoe to drop was the federal the last two decades of presidential status quo, or at least something very district court ruling on the redistricting elections, Republicans have seen the close to it. The plan they put forward date. On June 9, the three-judge panel 2nd district as their best, and arguably proposed only incremental changes announced that Maine had to resolve only, shot at winning an electoral vote of the sort used since 1962, shifting the population inequity between the in the state, with the George W. Bush a single town from the 1st district to districts prior to the 2012 election and John McCain campaigns devoting the 2nd in order to create more equal (Canfield 2011). In order to have a map resources there. Barack Obama populations but preserving the shape in place by the date candidates could received 55 percent of the district’s of the previous map (Metzler 2011). file for the 2012 primaries, the court vote in 2008 and would receive 53 This would have kept the 1st district required the state legislature to enact percent in the new district in 2012. solidly Democratic, the 2nd district its plan by September 30, and, failing Even the 2nd district, consistently the leaning Democratic, and both of the that, for the state judiciary to approve more conservative of the two, has begun party’s incumbents in safe and familiar a plan no later than November 15. If the to slip out of reach for Republicans — in constituencies. Indeed, it was precisely latter date were not met, the federal 2010, an excellent year for Republicans, the incrementalism that they used in court would impose its own plan by Mike Michaud (D) won reelection trying to persuade the nonpartisan January 1, 2012. commission chair, Michael Friedman, by 13 percentage points (Sambides Maine Republicans wanted to arrive at to adopt their plan over the Republican 2010) — raising the stakes for this a district map through the legislative one. Friedman asked the parties to redistricting effort. Moving Republican process, where they retained some submit new plans in order to find voters from the 1st district to the 2nd control, rather than through state or 10 compromise, so Democrats offered a would cede three of four electoral votes federal courts, especially because the variation on their previous plan, this to Democrats while making the race for latter would be more likely to approve time shifting six additional towns but that fourth elector more competitive. a more incremental plan closer to reducing the population difference Not since Rutherford Hayes vs. Samuel the one preferred by Democrats. As to one resident, as Republicans had Tilden in 1876 has a presidential race Republican legislator and commission insisted (Russell 2011a). come down to a single electoral vote, member Ken Fredette said in a party but there were plausible scenarios If the presidential election helped to press release, “The vote that counts that would have produced a 269-269 motivate the Republican strategy, it will be the one taken by the Maine outcome in 2012 — or 270-268 in favor also helped to drive the Democratic House of Representatives and Senate of Republicans were they to peel away response. Protection of their two during the special legislative session an elector in Maine (Goodman 2011).4 incumbents also played a part. Because which is scheduled for September 27, The strategy was in keeping with the governor would not defend the 2011. I would rather the legislature, not national GOP conversations about state against the lawsuit to move the courts, resolve this.” up the redistricting date, the Maine how to tilt the electoral map in their The Apportionment Commission Democratic Party filed an intervening favor in 2012 and beyond. Pennsylvania worked on the question over the brief in order to avoid a default Republicans, for example, came summer of 2011, with a public hearing judgment in favor of the plaintiffs (Kim close to enacting a law to allocate its on August 23. After asking the parties 2011). Democrats argued that the electoral votes by congressional district to offer compromise plans, and seeing population difference was still small in the manner of Maine and Nebraska. little compromise between them, and that the court ought to defer to The state has voted for the Democratic Friedman cast the deciding vote on the orderly process set out in state nominee since 1992 and in recent an otherwise party-line 8-7 decision law and used for the three previous years has been shedding its reputation in favor of an incremental plan very redistrictings. Case law and data were as a swing state to become solidly close to what the Democrats had not on their side, but they hoped for Democratic in presidential elections. offered (Metzler 2011b). Republicans a cautious court that would defer State GOP leaders believed that such immediately reminded the public that a system, together with strategic judgment to the state. redistricting, would benefit the party’s 4 For a recent analysis of plausible scenarios which presidential chances (Silver 2011; could result in an Electoral College tie, see Silver Seelye 2011). (2012).

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Maine’s Circuitous 2011 Redistricting

the consequential vote would be the ostensibly requiring a supermajority. three dissenting votes in the House. In one taken by the state legislature and Legislative leaders quickly rejected the end, 13 towns in Kennebec County that the commission recommendation the possibility, and there were two switched congressional districts, was merely that. political reasons for them to do so. increasing on net the estimated One was a threat that such a move number of Republicans in the second The legislative process presented its would precipitate a people’s veto district by about 2,500 voters (Russell own hurdle, however. By law, a plan question on the next statewide ballot, 2011c). The governor signed the could be sent to the governor for his a procedure that allows Maine voters plan into law a day before the court- signature only with a 2/3 vote of to reject legislative acts. Because many imposed deadline. Fourteen months both chambers; Republicans, despite more residents would be switched later, both of Maine’s Democratic their gains in 2010, were well short of under the Republican plan than either incumbents were easily reelected. that threshold in the House and the the Democratic alternative or the Senate. In addition to their inability commission’s recommendation, GOP to sway Democrats to their plan, leaders likely did not relish the chance Conclusion some Republicans most affected by to sell their more drastic version in an the plan began to voice concerns Despite its successes in the 2010 election. Second, Democrats further as well. GOP leaders from rural election and the high ambitions which undercut Republican arguments about western Oxford County objected that followed, the Maine Republican Party the need for a simple majority by they would be moved from the 2nd was unable to shift the congressional pointing out that GOP leaders earlier in district, which was dominated by rural electoral calculus to any discernible the year had cosponsored legislation to interests similar to their own, to the degree in the first and second 11 change the redistricting date — which 1st district, which would be dominated districts. The plan that was adopted included a supermajority provision by the interests of Portland and other was incremental and served largely (Russell 2011b). population centers on the southern to protect incumbent interests; coast of the state (Mistler 2011). Acting under pressure from the court, the incumbents protected were the commission recommendation, Democrats. Legislative authority over The backlash within the party was and Democrats, the Republican-led redistricting was conditional both on similar to the resistance that prompted legislature adopted an incremental implicit approval by the voters via a Pennsylvania Republican leaders to map (shown in Figure 4) nearly possible people’s veto process and on drop their Electoral College plans. In identical to the commission and judicial review. Together with growing that case, GOP members of the U.S. Democratic schemes by a unanimous rebellion in their own ranks over a more House and the state legislature feared vote in the state Senate and with only dramatic change in the map, these that their own electoral chances would checks induced the Republicans to be hurt if Democrats, in an effort to revert to the status quo. win the district-level electors, invested heavily in districts they otherwise Although the GOP failed to redraw would have written off (Hirschhorn the map for U.S. House elections, they 2011). In Maine as in Pennsylvania, succeeded in changing the calendar. local self-interest by party members Governor LePage and the Maine induced the party to walk back a bold Republicans successfully sued to make plan to redraw the state’s electoral Maine fall in line with the rest of the landscape. country and to have its redistricting occur in year two after a census rather In response to the dwindling prospects than year three. To their chagrin, for their plan via the standard process, however, the change in calendar was some Republicans in the legislature much less valuable in the absence of a floated the possibility of structuring a change in the map. vote such that it would require only a simple majority, noting that Democrats

had pulled similar procedural Figure 4: Maine Congressional maneuvers in the past on measures Districts, 2012–2020

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Maine’s Circuitous 2011 Redistricting

Bibliography Kim, Ann S. 2011. “Court Orders Maine ------. 2012. “New Polls Raise Canfield, Clarke. 2011. “Panel: to do Redistricting Much Earlier.” Chance of Electoral College Tie.” Congressional Districts Portland Press Herald. June 10, A1. The New York Times. October 1. (URL http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes. Unconstitutional, Must Be Redrawn.” Metzler, Rebekah. 2011a. “GOP, com/2012/10/01/new-polls-raise- Bangor Daily News. June 9 (URL http:// Democrats Divided on Plans for chance-of-electoral-college-tie/ bangordailynews.com/2011/06/09/ Redistricting.” Portland Press Herald. accessed October 3, 2012). politics/panel-congressional-districts- August 16, A1. unconstitutional-must-be-redrawn/ Wickenheiser, Matt. 2010. AAnalysis: ------. 2011b. “Democratic accessed April 22, 2012). Platform makeover clouds post primary Redistricting Plan OK’d.” Portland Press unity push.@ Portland Press-Herald. Fried, Amy. 2012. “Going Beyond That Herald. August 31, B1. Blue on Maine’s Electoral College Map: May 9, B5. Democrats and the Senate Race.” Mistler, Steve. 2011. “Parties Refocus Bangor Daily News, March 1 (URL on Consensus Redistricting; Some GOP http://pollways.bangordailynews. Lawmakers Hedge on ‘Radical’ Map.” com/2012/03/01/national/going- Lewiston Sun-Journal. August 25 (URL beyond-that-blue-on-maines-electoral- http://www.sunjournal.com/state/ college-map-democrats-and-the- story/1077986 accessed April 22, senate-race/ accessed April 22, 2012). 2012). Russell, Eric. 2011a. “GOP, Dems Draw Goodman, Josh. 2011. “Maine 12 Redistricting Could Sway Presidential New Maps.” Bangor Daily News. August Race.” Stateline. August 31. (URL 30, B1. http://www.pewstates.org/projects/ ------. 2011b. “Redistricting stateline/headlines/maine- Showdown to Dominate Special redistricting-could-sway-presidential- Session.” Bangor Daily News. September race-85899375142 accessed 24, B1. April 22, 2012) ------. 2011c. “Redistricting Deal Hench, David. 2011. “Redistricting Suit Keeps Boundaries Nearly Same.” Seeks Speedy Resolution From Judges.” Bangor Daily News. September 28, A1. Portland Press Herald. April 28, B1. Sambides, Nick, Jr. 2010. “U.S. Rep. Hirschhorn, Dan. 2011. AHouse Michaud Wins Re-Election in 2nd GOP Fret Over New Pa. Electoral District Over GOP’s Levesque.” Bangor Plan.@ Politico. September 14. (URL Daily News. November 3, A1. http://www.politico.com/news/ stories/0911/63522.html accessed Seelye, Katharine Q. 2011. April 22, 2012). APennsylvania G.O.P. Weighs Electoral Vote Changes for 2012.@ The New York James, Scott C. 2007. “Timing and Times. September 19, A12. Sequencing of Congressional Elections: Interstate Contagion and America’s Silver, Nate. 2011. APennsylvania Nineteenth-Century Scheduling Electoral College Plan Could Regime.” Studies in American Political Backfire on G.O.P.@ The New York Development 21 (Fall): 181-202. Times. September 15. (URL http:// fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes. com/2011/09/15/pennsylvania electoral college plan could backfire on g o p/ accessed April 22, 2012).

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012: A More Open Process, a More Rational Map, and No Indictments Robert G. Boatright1, Nicholas M. Giner2, James R. Gomes3

It is generally assumed by political and losers. Because Massachusetts of 2002, the fact that the resulting scientists that the primary goal of lost a seat, it was clear that at least House districts arguably helped the redistricting is partisan advantage. two members of Congress would be Republican party more than they In states where one party controls very unhappy. Although legislators may helped the Democratic Party, or the the process, it will seek to maximize develop relationships with members fact that the districts have, thus far, the number of congressional seats it of Congress — through shared met with almost universal acclaim holds either by packing members of advocacy for federal projects or simply from everyone except the state’s the opposing party into a very small through joint campaigning — not all congressional delegation? Below we number of districts or by diluting members of Congress will have clout explain the circumstances surrounding opposition party representation by with the redistricting committee. As these changes in Massachusetts’ dispersing pockets of that party’s of 2010 Massachusetts had several redistricting in light of our assumptions supporters among a number of members of Congress who serve on about what went on in the minds of districts.4 We have few theoretical powerful committees, but only five those who actually drew the maps. guideposts, however, for looking at of the ten House members as of 2011 states such as Massachusetts — a had previously served in the state state heavily enough Democratic that legislature.5 Third, legislators may A Recent History there are few ways in which one could seek to bolster the clout in Congress of Redistricting in draw districts that would reliably elect of particular regions of the state. Massachusetts even a single Republican. Although we Redistricting may thus be, in part, Massachusetts is, by many measures, cannot yet know how Republicans will a process of evaluating the claims among the most Democratic states in 13 fare in Massachusetts’ new districts of different regions and discerning the United States. Despite Republican over the coming years, it is clear that which cities will dominate the politics gains elsewhere in the country in 2010, the Massachusetts legislature has a of individual districts. And fourth, the state re-elected its Democratic somewhat different set of incentives state legislators may want to lay the Governor, Deval Patrick, and all ten from most other American legislatures. groundwork for their own potential of its Democratic members of the future runs for Congress by creating In our contribution to this volume we House of Representatives. As of 2011 districts favorable to them. Advances seek to explore these “second order” the state’s House of Representatives in mapmaking technology — and in the incentives. There are at least four such contained 128 Democrats and 32 availability of this technology to the incentives that we argue are at play Republicans, and the State Senate had public — made pursuing these goals here. First, state legislators (and, in 36 Democrats and four Republicans. easier for legislators, but (perhaps this case, state legislative committees) Republicans have at times been more importantly) these advances may seek to establish a reputation successful at the state level, as the also gave the public a greater role in for performing the redistricting 2010 special election victory of monitoring and participating in the task well. The 2002 Massachusetts Scott Brown and the gubernatorial process than had been the case in redistricting was widely viewed as a victories during the 1990s and 2000s past years. messy, undemocratic process in which of William Weld, Paul Cellucci, and personal grudges played a greater There is ultimately no way to go Mitt Romney show, and the state role than normative concerns. The behind closed doors (and, despite committee, and particularly the state the openness of the process this year, 1 Associate Professor of Political Science, Clark senator and representative who co- the doors are still closed during the University (corresponding author, rboatright@clarku. chaired it, had an incentive to perform crucial committee deliberations) to edu). 2 Ph.D. candidate, Department of Geography, Clark in a way that would garner favorable find out why districts were drawn University. media coverage and the respect and as they are. It seems evident to us, 3 Director, Mosakowski Institute for Public Enterprise, approval of the portion of the public, however, that the political logic of Clark University. 4 There is truly vast literature on this subject; for a admittedly small, that pays attention the 2012 Massachusetts redistricting review, see Bullock 2010. to such matters. Second, personal was shaped by factors such as those 5 These five are Representatives Frank, Keating, Lynch, relationships between legislators and above. How else can one explain the Markey, and Olver. Massachusetts is typical of the rest of the United States in this regard; 220 of the members of Congress may determine radically different nature of the 2012 435 members of the House previously served as state redistricting’s winners redistricting as compared to that legislators (Manning 2011).

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012

congressional delegation did include compactness or communities of the state’s (Republican) governor. The several Republicans during the 1980s interest might well place more than Senate President, in response to the and 1990s. While it would be difficult two legislators in competition with pushback against Finneran, announced to draw a district that would be likely to each other. that the senate, unlike Finneran, elect a Republican, it might be possible would take incumbency into account Absent the overriding imperative to at the least to draw districts where and avoid pitting House members maximize Democratic seats, then, Republicans would be competitive. against each other. A gerrymandered redistricting in Massachusetts has State legislators have, however, never incumbent protection map, with oddly caused a variety of problems as tried this, due no doubt to the perennial shaped North-to-South districts in legislators have used the process to overwhelming Democratic majorities in the Southeasten part of the state reward friends and punish enemies. both houses of the state legislature. (but which still included the majority- Governors have had a minimal role minority district proposed by Finneran), More consequentially, Massachusetts in redistricting over the past three resulted. Finneran, meanwhile, ran has also been losing population relative cycles; in 1992 the Republican Party into further trouble regarding the state to the rest of the United States for the did have sufficient numbers in the legislative redistricting plan, which past several decades. Massachusetts state Senate to sustain a veto by also appeared to play out political lost a House seat in 1982 and 1992 Republican Governor William Weld, vendettas, was introduced so close redistrictings, and it lost another in and the map that resulted from that to the state-mandated deadline that this most recent redistricting, dropping round did, in fact, produce Republican there was little public scrutiny, and from ten to nine seats. In the 2012 victories, albeit short-lived ones, in two was not as friendly to minorities as the redistricting there was much reference of the state’s ten districts. In the 2002 14 congressional proposal. Finneran pled in the media to communities of redistricting Republican Governor Jane guilty to obstruction of justice in 2007 interest — some regions of the state Swift6 appears not to have played a for his false and misleading testimony have historically had their own seats, role, and in 2012 Democratic Governor in a suit filed in 2003 regarding the but population decline has made it Deval Patrick could conceivably have legislative redistricting. clear that there are more communities vetoed a plan, although this veto and regions that believe themselves would not have taken place on partisan In short, the 2002 redistricting was entitled to their own seat than there grounds. In the 2002 redistricting a complete disaster in terms of the are seats. then-state House of Representatives process, public perceptions of the Speaker Thomas Finneran initially process, and the resulting maps. At At the time the 2012 redistricting pushed the redistricting committee to a minimum, it provided a lesson for process began, none of the state’s carve up the district of one member future legislators on what not to do. ten incumbent House members had of Congress he disliked, even though announced a decision to retire or to Massachusetts was not losing a seat run for higher office. The redistricting in that year’s redistricting.7 Despite Massachusetts math, then, was simple. At minimum, the fact that state law specifies Redistricting Law the districts would need to change that redistricting shall be overseen and Process such that at least two current House by a joint committee composed of members were placed in the same Massachusetts state law specifies state House and Senate members, district. The “winners” and “losers” that a Joint Special Committee Finneran, as House speaker, sought in the process would be individual on Redistricting is to be created to preempt the joint committee’s incumbents or particular regions, not following the decennial census, and proceedings by introducing his own Democrats or Republicans. Given this committee is then to present its proposal. Finneran’s gambit was that that some of the state’s existing plan to the state House and Senate his evisceration of the Rep. Martin districts looked to be oddly shaped, Meehan’s Lowell-based district would and that one area of the state that 6 be overshadowed by the creation of Swift, a Republican elected Lieutenant Governor seemed reasonably coherent — the in 1998, became Governor in April of 2001 when a majority-minority district. Meehan Governor Paul Cellucci resigned. southeastern region along Buzzards ultimately sought and received 7 A good summary of the 2000 redistricting is provided Bay — had been chopped up among in Moscardelli (2002). Much of the discussion in the backing of both of the state’s three congressional districts, a this paragraph summarizes issues raised in the (Democratic) U.S. senators, as well as Moscardelli piece. redistricting plan that prioritized

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012

Consequences of the New Redistricting Plan The joint committee released its proposed congressional map on November 7, 2011. Figure 1 shows the 2002 and 2012 maps, and Table 1 shows the relationship between the geographic areas covered by the 2002 districts and those of the 2012 map.11 Below, we describe the districting changes with reference to the criteria we expect would be of the most concern to politicians and Massachusetts citizens. Changes from the Prior Districts: As Table 1 shows, five of the nine Figure 1: Massachusetts Congressional Districts, 2002-2010 new districts have retained more than 80 percent of the land area of for approval.8 The governor has veto Perhaps the most important prior districts. One major change in power over the eventual legislation, but informal constraint on the process, the map was the combination of the 15 his or her veto can be overridden. The however, was a sentiment that the state’s two Western districts into 2011 act establishing the committee joint committee should not repeat one district, based in Springfield. The stated that the committee should the controversy of 2002. The bad removal of this district resulted in consist of seven senators appointed aftertaste left by that redistricting the prior Springfield-based district by the Senate president, one of whom may have prompted the legislature shedding much of its territory in the must be a member of the minority to open up the process in 2011; central Southern part of the state, party, and 21 representatives appointed the Joint Committee scheduled 14 leading to a more compact district by the speaker, of whom four must public hearings throughout the state. in the central part of the state. The be members of the minority party. The Joint Committee also set up a central, Worcester-based district, in Republicans, then, were represented on website that contained summaries turn, lost a narrow corridor that had the committee in rough proportion to of Massachusetts redistricting laws, previously snaked from Worcester their presence in the legislature. court cases related to redistricting toward the Southeastern industrial city of Fall River. This change facilitated a There are legal and geographic (both at the state and federal level), second major alteration in the state’s constraints on the process — the state past district maps, and links to public 10 districts, as the Cape Cod district contains sufficient, and sufficiently mapping programs. The site listed the became more compact, losing the concentrated, minority population to committee members and the public Boston-area suburb of Quincy and construct one majority-minority district hearing dates, and after the public gaining the Buzzards Bay city of New (this district was 51.4 percent minority hearings had been completed, videos as of the 2000 census9), and in places of these meetings were included. (notably the Cape Cod area) the The committee also promised, and delivered, a two-week comment period 8 For a full summary of Massachusetts redistricting state’s geography and borders limit the laws, see http://www.malegislature.gov/District/Laws. between the release of proposed creativity of line-drawers. As in most 9 This district, MA-8, has since its creation been other states, there are also informal legislative and congressional maps and represented by a white Democrat, Michael Capuano. 10 constraints, including addressing the the state House vote on these maps. See http://www.malegislature.gov/District. In the previous round of redistricting, 11 We provide data for shifts in territorial area here needs and desires of different regions instead of population because geography remains and, to the extent possible, avoiding the maps were released on a Thursday static from one redistricting to the next while and voted upon on a Monday (see population shifts across decades. Some of the dividing cities and towns. effects of population shift are addressed below in our Brown 2011). discussion of changes in partisanship.

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012

2012 Congressional Districts District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6 District 7 District 8 District 9 2002 District 1 59.17 32.43 8.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Congres- District 2 53.74 42.47 0.00 3.78 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 sional District 3 0.00 45.34 4.87 40.57 7.86 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.36 Districts District 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 46.61 2.12 0.00 0.00 1.29 49.97 District 5 0.00 0.01 84.11 0.00 6.24 9.64 0.00 0.00 0.00 District 6 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.04 99.94 0.00 0.00 0.00 District 7 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.09 97.87 0.05 1.99 0.00 0.00 District 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.11 8.81 0.00 87.96 3.12 0.00 District 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.70 0.00 0.00 7.46 70.92 3.92 District 10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.02 89.98 Total 112.91 120.25 97.41 108.85 122.95 109.62 97.41 85.36 145.24

Table 1: Changes in Territory of Massachusetts Congressional Districts, 2002-2012

Bedford and part of Fall River. The of actual voters and in terms of the congressional districts in Western remainder of Fall River is now in the partisanship of these districts. and Central Massachusetts and in 16 new 4th District, which had previously the Lowell-based district of Rep. Niki Incumbents: There was substantial contained New Bedford but now takes Tsongas (Phillips 2011a, b; Sutner 2011). speculation in the Massachusetts in more territory along the border of John Olver, who represented a district media about the new congressional Rhode Island. Although the territorial including the Berkshires and a long maps for several weeks before they changes in the South Shore area of swath of the northern tier of the state finally appeared. The proposed state the state are less dramatic than those stretching almost to the Merrimack legislative maps had been released in the Central and Western parts of Valley, announced his retirement in mid-October, and at that time the state, the movement of several on October 26, shortly before the a series of rumors had circulated medium-sized industrial cities has proposed congressional maps were about potential changes in the three greater ramifications in terms of shifts released but after the publication of several news articles speculating about a matchup between Olver and another incumbent (either Springfield’s Richard Neal or Worcester’s James McGovern). The final map would have indeed forced Olver to run against another incumbent (McGovern), but it did not in fact look much like those rumored to be under consideration before Olver announced his resignation. In the Eastern part of the state, the residences of Representatives Steven Lynch and William Keating were drawn into the same district, a problem Keating addressed by choosing to run in the new Cape Cod district where he had a summer home, a district containing much of the territory of his

Figure 2: Massachusetts Congressional Districts, 2012-2020 old district, with the notable exception

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012

District 2012 Incumbent’s Pct. Pct. Pct. Pct. Pct. Pct. Pct. Pct. (Incumbent) District Democratic Democratic Republican Republican Unenrolled Unenrolled Nonwhite Nonwhite 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 2012 2002 1 (Neal) 2 37.31 35.97 13.29 13.23 49.40 50.79 17.53 17.12 2 (McGovern) 3 33.15 33.49 12.54 13.30 54.31 53.21 14.79 16.19 3 (Tsongas) 5 33.40 33.49 13.36 13.30 53.24 53.21 21.52 16.19 4 (Open / Frank) 4 33.41 38.32 13.11 11.32 53.49 50.36 11.00 13.60 5 (Markey) 7 40.60 34.00 10.66 13.27 48.74 52.72 20.65 21.68 6 (Tierney) 6 31.43 31.33 13.32 13.40 55.25 55.27 12.02 12.46 7 (Capuano) 8 55.57 56.33 6.71 6.78 37.72 36.89 48.94 45.52 8 (Lynch) 9 40.02 41.32 11.68 11.07 48.30 47.62 20.44 25.76 9 (Keating) 10 32.31 29.99 14.27 15.67 53.42 54.34 9.44 10.30

Table 2: District Changes in Partisanship and Race Note: Partisanship data for both redistricting plans are taken from voter registration in the 2008 election. Race data from the 2000 census. of Quincy, his place of residence and 1st district appears likely to remain Partisanship: Table 2 shows changes the old district’s largest city (Phillips Democratic for the near future, but in the partisan and racial composition and Bierman 2011). And Representative the combination of his home city of Massachusetts’ districts following 17 Barney Frank announced his retirement of Springfield with the Berkshires the 2012 redistricting. This table after the redistricting; he did not cite provided the incumbent, Richard compares each of the incumbents’ redistricting as a primary reason for his Neal, with a somewhat competitive current and former districts, assuming decision, but he did hint that he was primary challenger. The state’s most that if Barney Frank had remained in retiring a cycle sooner than he would competitive race in 2012, however, Congress he would have run in the new have liked because of his concerns was the new 6th district, on the state’s 4th district. While it may oversimplify about introducing himself to so many North Shore. This district changed matters somewhat to argue that, for new constituents (Richmond 2011). little, but ethical issues involving the instance, the old 2nd district “became” Had he run, he may well have faced district’s incumbent representative, the new 1st district, the data we a more difficult reelection contest in John Tierney,12 led to a challenge from a showed in Table 1 clearly demonstrated 2012 than he had faced in previous prominent centrist Republican, Richard that each of the incumbents who years, although the larger turnout we Tisei, and the National Republican sought to remain in Congress chose can expect in a presidential election Campaign Committee and various to run in the new district that most year would likely have aided any conservative Super PACs spent heavily resembled his or her prior district. Democratic candidate. on the race (Isenstadt 2011). Although The partisanship data here, drawn Tisei led in several late polls, Tierney The final map, then, ultimately from 2008 voter registration records, eked out a narrow victory. Barney produced one open seat and no show how little Massachusetts’ Frank’s retirement appeared at first to incumbent vs. incumbent matchups, districts changed in their partisanship. have the potential to set off a heated but it clearly is not an incumbent Whether one considers Democratic Democratic primary, and Frank’s Tea protection gerrymander. Some registration, Republican registration, Party-inspired 2010 opponent, Sean incumbents were safer than before, or registration as unenrolled, it is clear Bielat, again sought the Republican including Representatives Tsongas that mapmakers sought to change the nomination. However, the entry of and McGovern, both of whom current districts as little as possible Joseph Kennedy III, son of former maintained their urban bases while Representative Joseph Kennedy II and shedding some Republican-leaning grandson of Robert Kennedy, reduced rural and suburban areas. However, 12 Rep. Tierney’s wife pled guilty to aiding and abetting competition on the Democratic side their security came at a cost of taking the filing of false tax returns by her brother and served and erased Republican expectations of 30 days in prison. on many new constituents. The new winning this seat.

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012

in terms of their partisanship.13 Two and 9th are centered around the arguably more compact than previous districts — those of Reps. Markey Metrowest area, the North Shore, and districts; because they do not appear and Keating — became slightly more the Cape and Islands, or a “majority- to be blatantly pro-incumbent; because Democratic, and one district, formerly minority” concentration of people of there are arguably more competitive held by Rep. Frank, became slightly less color (the 7th includes the urban and districts than were produced in 2002; Democratic. The partisanship changes heavily minority communities in and and because the maps remedy some in the districts of Keating and Frank near Boston). Only the 4th and 8th long-standing complaints about are a consequence of the movement appear to have been constructed based communities of interest (particularly of the larger cities of New Bedford and on population remnants, i.e., who and in Southeastern Massachusetts) it part of Fall River from the 4th to the where was left over after accounting appears that the committee did seek 9th districts; the change in Markey’s for the cities and communities listed to produce “fair” results and did, in district is a result of the movement above. fact, act upon some of the testimony of some of the northern towns in it received. Although the committee Compactness: Scholars have long- Frank’s district to Markey’s. The large invited testimony, both in writing and since concluded that there are no number of unenrolled voters in each during the public hearings, its website generally preferable ways to measure of these districts makes it difficult to does not include the written testimony the compactness of districts.14 predict what might take place in future that it received. However, it is not going too far out elections, but it is clear that there on a limb to assert that the 2012 map Redistricting proposals from outside is only one district (the 4th) where represents a significant stride forward, the legislature can be grouped into Republicans were arguably advantaged in terms of compactness, from the three categories. First, local media 18 by the redistricting. 2002 map. Both the western and throughout the state published pieces Race: Massachusetts continues to southeastern parts of the state are about ensuring representation of have one district that is nearly a divided more neatly and compactly their regions but did not endorse majority-minority district; this district than previously. The differences in the comprehensive plans. Newspapers does reach that level if one sums the southeast are especially noticeable, as in the Berkshires (at the western percentage of African-Americans, a region that had previously been sliced end of the state) argued that they Asians, and Latinos (who may also and diced among three districts has were different from residents of identify themselves as white on the now been neatly cut in two. Although Springfield (the largest city in Western census). This district became slightly there is no way to be certain about the Massachusetts) and should thus have less white in the 2010 redistricting, intentions of legislators, it appears that their own district (Davis 2011); political although it appears that it will the notions of communities of interest leaders in Worcester argued that continue to have a white incumbent. and compactness won out in this round they were different from residents of It is technically possible to draw this over incumbent protection, but without Springfield or Lowell (Monahan 2011); district in a manner that includes more much, if any, harm to what is perhaps and editorial pages on the state’s North minorities — in fact, it is possible, if one the paramount concern: protecting Shore, as well, argued that they were draws districts very creatively, to draw the interest of the majority party different from their neighbors and two Massachusetts districts that are Democrats. should not be grouped with Lowell or majority-minority — but doing so has Lawrence (Newburyport News 2011). never been a priority of the legislature or of voting rights organizations. A More Open Process? 13 Massachusetts allows citizens to register as The joint committee on redistricting “unenrolled” — essentially, to proclaim themselves Major cities: The new, nine district to be independents. These voters are permitted to map contains no fewer than seven certainly sought to make information request the ballot of any party in a primary election on the redistricting process visible to without changing their registration status. The districts that are either centered allegiances of unenrolled voters are a subject of around a major municipality (the 1st, the public. It is difficult to make firm frequent discussion in Massachusetts politics. Given connections between citizens’ ideas the anemic Republican registration totals (as shown in 2nd and 3rd are centered, respectively, Table 2), unenrolled voters are generally crucial to the around Springfield, Worcester, and about redistricting and the maps that success of statewide Republican candidates. Lowell), a well-recognized regional were ultimately developed by the 14 See generally Monmonier, pp. 64-76. community of interest (the 5th, 6th, committee. Because the maps are

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012

Testimony at the public hearings often MassVote, an organization that also stretching the old 1st (Berkshires) and followed this model; at the Worcester advocates for increased representation 2nd (Metro Springfield) districts even hearing, for instance, it appeared to for minorities, jointly developed two farther east, sandwiching but avoiding us that there was an organized effort different proposed maps that would Worcester (the hub of the old 3rd afoot to ensure that Worcester and have also increased the population Distrtict). Such a configuration might Springfield were not placed in the of this district, but these maps did also have complicated the redrawing same district and that the region west less to increase the competiveness of of the district that is home to the of the Boston metropolitan area have other districts than did the FDM maps. delegation’s lone female member, Rep. three districts. Republicans on the joint These groups also issued a statement Niki Tsongas. It may be that creating committee also often adopted this approving of the committee’s process.16 a favorable district for a future run by sort of argument — a convenient one Common Cause Massachusetts did Stan Rosenberg would have required for them, perhaps, since preserving not explicitly endorse any of these gerrymandering so obvious and bizarre three districts in an area of the state proposals but it did argue for increasing as to be politically untenable, at least in with only two major cities would have the transparency of the redistricting the current climate. had the effect of creating at least one process (as compared with the 2002 Overall, then, it appears that citizen largely rural, and somewhat more procedure) and commended the groups found much to like in the Republican-leaning, district. committee for allowing a two week process, and that the only losers comment period after the release of Second, an organization called Fair were residents of the Berkshires and, the proposed maps.17 The national Districts Massachusetts (FDM), led by arguably, some of the incumbent office of Common Cause issues report former Republican Senate candidate representatives. The committee 19 cards for the state on various matters Jack E. Robinson and advised by clearly sought to encourage public of open government; although it Republican State Representative Daniel feedback and to provide citizens with gave Massachusetts a “C” overall, it Winslow, released two proposed the necessary tools with which to gave it an “A” for the openness of its maps that would have had more draw their own conclusions about the redistricting.18 These groups and FDM compact districts and would arguably procedure. In our opinion, the process both found an unlikely ally in April 2011 have increased competitiveness in Massachusetts was as open, if not as Senator Scott Brown announced in Boston’s southern and western more so, than it was in any of the other his support for empowering minorities suburbs. These maps also substantially states we looked at. It is not at all clear (although Brown did not endorse any increased the minority population in that the committee took the various particular plan; see Emery 2011). the state’s majority-minority district. outside proposals into account (but Although FDM asserted that this was An interesting aspect of this round then, how would one tell one way or a nonpartisan effort, it claimed that its of redistricting in Massachusetts the other?). proposal had pushed Frank and Olver was the role of State Senator Stan towards retirement, an argument made Rosenberg (D-Amherst), the Senate prominently enough on the group’s chair of the Special Joint Committee 15 See http://fairdistrictsmass.org/FDMPressRelease. pdf. website; one cannot but assume that on Redistricting. Rosenberg is a 16 See http://massvote.org/2011/11/new-congressional- it took pride in its role in ending the long-time member of the senate who maps-give-you-more-power/. career of the liberal icon Frank in had been mentioned as a possible 17 http://www.commoncause.org/siteapps/advocacy/ particular. FDM endorsed the state’s successor to 1st District Congressman ActionItem.aspx?c=dkLNK1MQIwG&b=7809089. 18 See http://www.commoncause.org/site/ final maps and stated that its advocacy (and fellow Amherst resident) John pp.asp?c=dkLNK1MQIwG&b=4847587. Common had guided the committee’s decision- Olver. In his own political interest, Cause certainly is not susceptible to grade inflation; 15 Massachusetts’ overall “C” grade was the tenth- making. Rosenberg might well have wanted highest among the states. to keep Amherst together in a district Third, the New Democracy Coalition, with Berkshire County and separate a coalition of organizations on the left, from both Springfield and Worcester. also argued for the enhancement of But the loss of population in the the state’s majority-minority district. western counties compared to the The Massachusetts NAACP and rest of the state would have required

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting Massachusetts 2012

Outlook for Future Another factor worthy of note was Bibliography Redistricting Reforms that Democrats had lost their majority Brown, Steve. 2011. “Mass. Lawmakers What accounts for this change in the U.S. House of Representatives will Unveil New State Districts.” WBUR, in the politics of redistricting in during the 2010 midterm elections. Had October 18. Massachusetts? We have already Democrats remained in the majority in Bullock, Charles. 2010. Redistricting: The discussed two factors, the loss of a Washington, the state legislature may Most Political Activity in America. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield. congressional seat that necessitated well have thought better of creating substantial redrawing of lines and districts that disadvantaged long-time Emery, Theo. 2011. “Brown says powerful incumbents like Frank and Redistricting Plan should Empower the recent history of scandal that Minorities.” Boston Globe, April 28. Olver. There is, of course, no way of arguably set the bar higher for Isenstadt, Alex. 2011. “Tierney’s Challenge a ethical conduct. A third factor, the knowing how this might have played Relative Issue.” Politico, December 7. out, although, at least in the case of much greater availability of mapping Levenson, Michael and Frank Phillips. software and data, may have been the Frank, maintaining the thin, north-to- 2010. “Galvin calls for changes to district most important reason the legislature south gerrymander of southeastern redrawing,” Boston Globe, December 5. produced the eventual 2012 map. Massachusetts that, inter alia, provided Manning, Jennifer. 2011. “Membership of Frank with reliable nests of Democratic the 112th Congress: A Profile.” Washington, In earlier decennial redistrictings, voters in both the north (Newton and DC: Congressional Research Service, Report mapping software was more expensive, Brookline) and south (New Bedford and R41647. less widely available, and harder to use. part of Fall River) of his district might Moscardelli, Vincent G. 2002. “Politics, By the 2012 round, however, programs have been hard to resist. Geography, and the Ghost of Elbridge such as Dave’s Redistricting19 were Gerry: Redistricting in Massachusetts in 20 available to anyone with a personal To close with a hoary cliché, ten the 21st Century.” Paper presented at the years is a very long time in politics, Annual Meeting of the American Political computer. A modicum of skills, Science Association, Boston, MA. so it is hard to predict the historical patience, and the inclination to try Monmonier, Mark. 2001. Bushmanders one’s hand at map-making were all that legacy of Massachusetts’ 2012 and Bullwinkles. Chicago: The University of was required to duplicate the process redistricting. Population projections Chicago Press. that heretofore had been confined for the 2020s make it appear Phillips, Frank. 2011a. “House Districts may to closed-door rooms at the State unlikely that Massachusetts will get Shake-up.” Boston Globe, October 19. House. The website of the Joint Special lose another seat in ten years, so the Phillips, Frank. 2011b. “Tsongas Seat at Committee on Redistricting even had calculus for legislators will no doubt Center of Redistricting Standoff.” Boston its own “Draw Your Own Districts” be different in 2022. It seems more Globe, November 5. link,20 something that surely never likely that a Republican will win one of Phillips, Frank., and Noah Bierman. 2011. occurred to former Speaker Finneran. Massachusetts’ congressional seats in “Map Changes Incumbents’ Terrain.” Boston the coming decade than it is that the Globe, November 8. Before the legislature began its work Massachusetts legislature will become Richmond, Will. 2011. “Changing District on new district maps, Massachusetts substantially more Republican, so Prompted Rep. Barney Frank to Retire 2 Secretary of State William Galvin, Years Earlier than Planned.” Fall River Herald it may well be that partisanship will News, November 28. the commonwealth’s chief elections play a greater role in the future than it Sutner, Shaun. 2011. “McGovern vs. Olver? official — and a former state has this year. The legacy of the 2002 legislator — had publicly called for a Loss of Seat on Congress Fires Rumor Mill.” redistricting, however, clearly weighed Worcester Telegram & Gazette, October 24. new independent commission to draw on Massachusetts legislators as they 21 district lines. His proposal was quickly approached the mapmaking process shot down by State Senate President in 2012. If the early reviews of this Therese Murray (D-Plymouth), and year’s redistricting are any indication, the near-universal praise for the results legislators will have less to prove in the reached by the legislature in this round future than they did this year. of redistricting will no doubt be offered as evidence a decade from now that 19 http://gardow.com/davebradlee/redistricting/ the elected politicians are clearly launchapp.html 20 http://www.malegislature.gov/District/ capable of doing the job. CreateDistricts 21 Levenson and Phillips 2010.

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England New Hampshire’s Congressional Redistricting Dante J. Scala*

With only two congressional districts now serves as the outermost circle Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley. Two to draw and minimal changes required, of Greater Boston and its suburbs. years later, Shea-Porter successfully the state of New Hampshire had The Second District extends over a fended off Bradley’s attempt to regain one of the easiest redistricting tasks significantly larger geographical area, his seat. 2010, however, was a far less in the union after the 2010 Census. encompassing all of northernmost friendly environment than the previous The final result barely shifted the Coos County, as well as the three two cycles for the Democrat, and contours of the two districts. Why, counties bordering Vermont. Shea-Porter was easily pushed aside then, did the process itself take so Significantly for Republicans, the by former Manchester Mayor Frank long? New Hampshire was next to Second District includes a strip of Guinta. last in completing the task, with prosperous towns along the border The Second Congressional District Governor John Lynch signing off on with Massachusetts that have has acquired a distinct Democratic the new map on April 23 (Wichita become part of the core Republican tilt, currently possessing a PVI of Eagle 2012). The answer, in short, base in New Hampshire. The district D + 3. In the Second Congressional was that the process was left to the also includes Nashua, the state’s District, Republican Charlie Bass had congressmen themselves. To be more second-largest city. (Traditionally, held the seat since the “Republican specific, a simple job on paper became New Hampshire’s two largest cities, Revolution” of 1994. The Democratic a more complicated zero-sum game Manchester and Nashua, have each wave of 2006, however, carried him for the two Republican incumbents, been allocated to separate districts.) out of office. Four years later, when both of whom won their seats in the Since 1992, New Hampshire has shifted his successor, Paul Hodes, decided to Republican avalanche of 2010. Now from a strongly Republican state to a run for the U. S. Senate seat vacated 21 facing tough races to keep their seats swing state in presidential elections. by Republican incumbent Judd Gregg, during a presidential election year, The last Republican presidential Bass attempted to regain his old both incumbents hoped to enhance candidate to win a majority of the seat. Facing Ann McLane Kuster, a their chances in their swing districts state’s vote was George H. W. Bush Democratic newcomer with formidable by squeezing out possible advantages in 1988; his son carried the state in fundraising strength, Bass nonetheless in the redistricting process. The result, 2000 with only a plurality of the vote. prevailed, albeit with less than 50 predictably enough, was a stand- In 2004, New Hampshire was the percent of the vote. off that ultimately yielded few net only state to shift from Republican to positives for either congressman. Both Guinta and Bass faced Democratic, casting its four electoral significant challenges in 2012, when votes for Senator John Kerry from the “enthusiasm gap” in the two neighboring Massachusetts; in 2008, A Recent History of parties’ respective bases narrowed Barack Obama easily carried the New Hampshire’s considerably. Bass was widely state over John McCain, who won the Congressional Districts considered to be the more endangered state’s heralded first-in-the-nation of the two, but in the end both lost The Granite State has possessed two Republican presidential primary in their seats in the 2012 general election, congressional districts since 1882. 2000 and 2008. The bellwether nature Bass by a 50 to 45 percent margin The districts are divided by a single of the Granite State has been reflected to Kuster and Guinta by a 50 to 46 boundary line that runs roughly in recent elections in the state’s two percent margin to Shea-Porter. Perhaps north-south, splitting the state into congressional districts. the eastern First Congressional redistricting would have saved one District bordering Maine, and the The First Congressional District is a or the other, but the election shows western Second Congressional District true bellwether, with a Partisan Voting little evidence that either candidate bordering Vermont. The First District Index (PVI) of R+0. Three different benefitted from redistricting. is geographically the more compact politicians have occupied the seat of the two, extending from the state’s since 2006. In that year, little-known largest city of Manchester to the progressive activist Carol Shea-Porter *Associate Professor of Political Science, University of New Hampshire seacoast; the district includes much captured the Democratic nomination, of the voter-rich southern tier, which and then pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the cycle in upending

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England New Hampshire’s Congressional Redistricting

The Redistricting Process his district that would have rid his in New Hampshire electorate of its Democratic tilt. These New Hampshire’s state legislature, towns lay mainly in New Hampshire’s overwhelmingly Republican after the southern tier. In the 2010 elections, a 2010 elections, was responsible for small set of voter-rich Massachusetts redrawing district lines, subject to border towns stretching across the approval of Democratic Governor Hillsborough and Rockingham counties John Lynch. In addition to the two had proven vital to Bass’s successful congressional districts, the legislature comeback. Bass had long had his also was responsible for drawing five eye on Bedford, a town adjoining Executive Council districts and twenty- Manchester, which was one of the four State Senate districts; it also faced most Republican in the state; such the formidable task of allocating the a shift was viewed as infeasible, lower State House’s 400 seats among though, because of the town’s historic the Granite State’s various towns and connection with the adjoining city. cities. In the end, Bass proposed a swap of Compared to such work, redrawing the northern towns (including the college two Congressional districts appeared town of Plymouth) for Republican- to be a fairly simple task. Population tilting areas such as Merrimack, changes had been undramatic and Plaistow, Hampstead, and Kingston. 22 relatively uniform across both districts, This would have left Bass in a slightly Figure 1: New Hampshire Congressional and therefore the two districts were better position, at the expense of Districts 2002-2010 only a few hundred votes shy of being his colleague in the neighboring equal in population. Furthermore, district. Bass argued that making Republican leadership in the State his district slightly more Republican House was intent on keeping the was in the long-term interests of status quo between the two districts. the New Hampshire GOP. While the “For State House leaders, dramatic congressman, who turned 60 this change creates unnecessary drama,” year, described himself as a “short- wrote longtime Granite State political termer” in office, the benefits of such reporter James Pindell last February redistricting would accrue to the fellow (Pindell 2012a). party member who attempted to succeed him. Bass’s plans beyond the Given their druthers, both Republican 2012 election, however, were unclear.1 congressmen most likely would have preferred to redraw the district lines Guinta, who turned 42 in 2012 and in their favor. While Guinta clearly thus had reason to anticipate a longer represented the more conservative congressional career than Bass, of the two Granite State districts, the saw little merit in his colleague’s makeup of the First Congressional plan. In addition, some lawmakers District did not offer him a partisan from affected towns also objected advantage. It was his colleague Bass, to the changes. The First District however, facing an electorate that congressman suggested a simpler fix: clearly leaned Democratic, who move exactly one town, Waterville doubtless saw a more urgent need to Figure 2: New Hampshire Congressional shake up the status quo in his favor. 1 See DiStaso 2012a, Pindell 2012a. Bass’s proposal Districts 2012-2020 apparently never gained traction among fellow In particular, the Second District Republicans in the State House. In fact, a House subcommittee on redistricting put forth a proposal congressman wished to acquire a that would make Bass’s district lean slightly more number of Republican towns for Democratic (Tucker 2012).

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England New Hampshire’s Congressional Redistricting

Valley, in order to address the small district a distinctive Republican population imbalance (DiStaso 2012a). tilt for the next decade. In all, New This minimalist approach won the Hampshire’s GOP elected to do no approval of State House leadership, harm to either incumbent and hope for including Speaker of the House Bill the best. O’Brien. In mid-March, a House committee voted 14-1 to approve a plan O’Brien co-sponsored, which Bibliography moved Waterville Valley and Sargent’s DiStaso, John. 2012a. “Granite Status.” Purchase into the First District. New Hampshire Union Leader, March 1. Combined, the changes affected a Retrieved April 27, 2012 from http:// mere 250 people (DiStaso 2012b). www.unionleader.com. Ultimately, the two Republican ----. 2012b. “Panel backs Guinta over congressmen agreed on a more Bass in redistricting feud.” The New expansive set of changes, which helped Hampshire Union Leader, March 13, pp. Bass’s re-election prospects slightly. A1, A8. In late March, the two consented to a plan that swapped six towns, affecting Pindell, James. 2012a. “Bass, Guinta some 15,000 voters. Figures 1 and 2 At Stalemate Over Congressional show the old and new districting plans. Redistricting.” WMUR Political Scoop. 23 Bass’s district became slightly less com, February 15. Retrieved April 27, Democratic-tilting as a result, while 2012 from http://www.wmur.com/ doing negligible harm to Guinta’s re- political-scoop. election prospects (Pindell 2012b). ----. 2012b. “Guinta and Bass Come In sum, during a redistricting session To Agreement On Redistricting.” in which they held almost all the cards WMUR Political Scoop.com, March 28. (including a veto-proof majority in the Retrieved April 27, 2012 from http:// state legislature), New Hampshire www.wmur.com/political-scoop. state legislative leaders deferred Tucker, William. 2012. “N.H. to the wishes of its Republican Congressional Redistricting Plan congressional incumbents. And when Released.” Miscellany Blue.com, March the two incumbents were unable to 9. Retrieved April 27, 2012 from http:// reach an agreement, the Republican miscellanyblue.com/. legislative leadership opted for a near status-quo approach more favored Wichita Eagle. 2012. “Reform by Guinta, the congressman with the redistricting.” April 25. Retrieved April more Republican of New Hampshire’s 27, 2012 from http://www.kansas.com. two districts. A plan that would have made its Democratic-leaning Second District more competitive for the next decade was a non-starter for the GOP leadership. On the other hand, New Hampshire’s GOP did not see fit to strip Bass’s district of Republican towns, thus giving Guinta’s bellwether

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting in Rhode Island: A Zero-Sum Game Amelia Najjar and Nicholas Rossi*

California comprises 53 districts; generally not been aimed at severely from the commission members and Florida, 27; Texas, 36. Rhode Island has altering the districts in terms of shape the commission members could two. Congressional redistricting in this and communities of interest; it has hear testimony from members of the small state is somewhat simple when mainly been about shifting certain community. Groups such as Common compared to the above-mentioned voters along the boundary lines to Cause, the Rhode Island League of states. However, the Ocean State does change the makeup or demographic Women Voters, the Urban League have its fair share of complexities, of the district just enough to achieve a of Rhode Island, the Providence which made for a stirring and particular result. 2010 was no different. Branch of the NAACP, the American enthralling redrawing of districts during Civil Liberties Union, and various While the criteria for redistricting the 2010-12 redistricting cycle. This newspapers frequented the meetings are essentially the same across the redistricting was largely characterized held by the commission (“Rhode nation, how it is carried out can by a political tug of war between the Island Redistricting Project”). Average vary considerably, depending on the two Democratic representatives, citizens, however, do not attend public geography, demographics, history, David Cicilline (D – District 1) and hearings, so the media therefore played and political atmosphere of each Jim Langevin (D – District 2), over a major role in informing the public state. On June 22, 2011, Governor voters in Providence. The media was about these hearings. Lincoln Chafee signed into law Bills H quick to highlight speculation that the 6096 and S 924, creating an advisory The political makeup of a state is an redrawing was unevenly benefiting commission to redraw state legislative important determinant of how the the districts, helping one politician and congressional districts based on redistricting process will pan out. more than the other. It is not overly the 2010 census (Levitt 2013). This In recent years Rhode Island has 24 surprising that those involved in the advisory commission consisted of become increasingly Democratic. It is process have been accused of playing 18 members: four representatives the fourth bluest state in the nation, politics, since a political body—the appointed by the House speaker, two with 40.9 percent of voting Rhode state legislature—holds almost representatives appointed by the Islanders registered as Democrats, exclusive power over redistricting; that House minority leader, four senators while only 10.4 percent are registered is, current state legislators comprise appointed by the Senate president, as Republicans (“Gemma” 2010). In the commission that redraws district two senators appointed by the Senate the 2012 presidential election, Rhode maps for themselves as well as for minority leader, three members of the Island voters cast 67.2 percent of their congressional representatives. Rhode public appointed by the House speaker votes for Barack Obama (“2012 Rhode Island experienced minor population and three members of the public Island Presidential Results”). It is changes that needed to be accounted appointed by the Senate president. clear that in Rhode Island competition for,1 but shifts in district lines were For the 2010 cycle, there were seven occurs mostly among politicians to the still largely political, and certainly Democrats and five Republicans on left of center fighting to ensure they are contentious. the commission (excluding the public chosen to represent their demographic, members). The six public members rather than among opposing parties. tended to be somewhat politically The northern and western parts of the Redistricting in active, be it on a town planning or state, however, do tend to be more Rhode Island zoning board, as the chairman of conservative than the rest of the state Historically, the districts in Rhode a town political committee or as a and can occasionally pose a threat to Island have not tended to change former state politician. Some public the Democratic establishment. drastically over the years. There were members also had experience as small three districts until 1933, when the business owners, government workers, state’s slow population growth relative or as workers in the private sector (“A 1 All states must adhere to the 14th Amendment Equal to the rest of the country led to the Breakdown” 2011). Protection Clause-based requirement that all districts loss of one district. Since then, Rhode within a state be as close to equal in population as The advisory commission conducted possible. Wesberry v. Sanders, 376 US 1 (1964). Island has seen two districts cutting * Clark University, B.A. 2012; candidate for M.A. in Urban up the state in an east-west divide. a series of public hearings, in which and Environmental Policy and Planning, Tufts University Redistricting in Rhode Island has members of the public could hear † B.A. 2012, M.A. 2013, Clark University

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting in Rhode Island

Additionally, with 48.6 percent of particularly in Providence. While whites passed identical bill H 7209. On voters registered as Independents, maintain a majority of the population, February 8, 2012, both were signed Rhode Island is a state in which the number of white residents actually into law by Governor Chafee. Following independent/unaffiliated voters decreased in the last decade by 34,322 these votes, the state House lines can easily sway elections (Cohen people (“Rhode Island Redistricting were challenged in the courts, but no 2012). This may explain why Rhode Project”). The Hispanic population court case was brought challenging the Island has not elected a Democratic was by far the most rapidly growing congressional map. governor since 1992. In 2010, while ethnic group, increasing by 39,835 The earliest plans unveiled by the Democrats had the upper hand in (Parker 2012). The minority population redistricting commission were their congressional general election increases thus have sustained Rhode scrapped due to widespread criticism contests, both Democrats campaigned Island’s population growth and helped from both Democrats and Republicans aggressively. In the 2010 congressional maintain its two-district makeup. on the grounds that they were too election in District 2, Jim Langevin However, Rhode Island does not have drastic and too blatantly aimed at won 59.9 percent of the vote, to his a large enough concentrated minority bolstering District 2 Representative Republican opponent Mark Zaccaria’s population to require the creation of a David Cicilline’s political fortunes. 31.8 percent; however, in the open majority-minority district. One, for example, known as “Plan E,” seat race in District 1, David Cicilline would have moved three of the more only won 50.6 percent of the vote conservative towns to District 2 and to Republican John Loughlin’s Redistricting in 2012: about half of Providence into District 44.6 percent (Cohen 2012). While Raw Politics 1, shifting the districts of a total of 25 incumbents are always interested in Despite Rhode Island’s Democratic 125, 276 people. The map eventually redistricting making their seats as safe tilt, the fact that it was neither gaining approved by the legislature, “Plan F,” as possible, given the narrow 2010 nor losing a district, and the lack scaled back these changes but still margin in District 1, in 2012 Cicilline of a majority-minority district, the moved significantly more people than in particular had a strong interest in remapping process became convoluted what was needed to equalize district the redistricting process, resulting in a with much political maneuvering. The populations. As Figures 1 and 2 show, more Democratic-leaning district. 2011 process had a distinctly political the districts did not look that much Rhode Island is not only a distinctly tone, and featured an unusual public different in terms of geography. The blue state — it is also the smallest state spat between two colleagues within the town of Burrillville had been moved in the nation in terms of geography. It Democratic Party. Since redistricting from District 1 into District 2 with more does, however, manage to satisfy the in Rhode Island was between two portions of the city of Providence being population requirements for having Democratic districts, decisions about moved into District 1. However, Plan two districts. Rhode Island’s two who got what changes, and where, F moved about 75,016 voters, even districts, each somewhere slightly operated as a zero-sum game: any though the difference between the old above 500,000 people, are smaller changes that benefited one politician districts due to population change had than most of the country’s districts, were detrimental to the other. been only 7,200 (Blake 2011). which average approximately 700,000 The timeline for the Rhode Island The commission justified these people (Nesi 2011). There was early process was as follows: the changes by stating that it had moved speculation that R.I. would become a commission was required to make more people than necessary so that single district state, since it was one its recommendation to the General minorities could have a greater voice of the slowest growing populations in Assembly by January 15, 2012, and the in District 1. The newly redrawn the country between 2000 and 2010. General Assembly was required to vote District 1 was now 75.86 percent According to the U.S. Census Bureau, on a plan in time for it to be effective non-Hispanic White compared to Rhode Island gained 4,248 people for the 2012 elections. On December District 2, which was 83.83 percent (less than 0.04 percent population 19, 2011, the commission voted on draft non-Hispanic White. As Table 1 growth) during that decade (Mackun congressional lines, which were then shows, Hispanics make up the largest et al 2011). The population growth that sent to the legislature for a vote. On minority group in both districts did occur, however small, was entirely February 1, 2012, the Senate passed (“Rhode Island Redistricting Project”). due to a growing minority population, S 2178, and on February 2, the House

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England The commission, however, never Critics of the 2012 redistricting plan released data on the voting behavior thus claimed that the changes had of minorities in these districts to been motivated most by a desire to demonstrate that minority groups make Cicilline more secure in light of would actually vote in a similar way, these accusations. Rep. Langevin of which instantly generated speculation the second district was particularly that ulterior political motives were the critical of the changes, perhaps mainly real explanation for the unnecessarily because the extra margin of safety large changes (Edgar 2011). given to Cicilline had been provided at his expense from his district. Brandon Most political leaders who supported Dougherty, Cicilline’s Republican the approved plan commended it for challenger, issued similar complaints, providing a greater voice to minorities. calling the process “political Critics, however, characterized it as a gamesmanship” (Marcelo 2011). blatant attempt to pad the district with additional Democratic voters to protect The most telling comment on the Cicilline from what had been expected politics though may have come from to be a tight reelection campaign Ray Rickman, a former Democratic

(Blake 2011; Edgar 2012; Marcelo 2011; state representative and a citizen Figure 1: Rhode Island Congressional Marcelo 2012). member of the 2010 redistricting Districts, 2002-2010 commission. When asked about In the months preceding the 2012 26 politics in the redistricting process, election, Cicilline had been accused of Rickman noted that the new plans misleading the public on the well-being would definitely benefit Cicilline, and of the city of Providence’s finances in that representatives redrawing maps his former job of mayor before running to assist themselves or other for Congress. Whether these claims politicians is “an American tradition.” were true, the details of the scandal left He went on to say “Nobody says it, much for his opponents to seize upon. but [Cicilline] had a tough time getting An official state report criticized him elected the first time, and he’s going for running a “dysfunctional” budget to catch hell the second. The people of system during his time as mayor that Burrillville are not going to vote for him. left the city in a state of financial crisis He wants to get rid of them and I don’t by the time he left office. To make blame him. Do I like the politics? No. matters worse, the condition of the Am I surprised? No,” (Klepper 2011). city’s finances had not become public The general consensus among close knowledge until the new Mayor of political observers seems to be that Providence had officially taken office, the new districts had been drawn to and Cicilline had already been elected benefit Cicilline, and that strengthening to Congress. In fact, during his initial the minority voice in the first district campaign Cicilline commented that Figure 2: Rhode Island Congressional was not the real motivation, even if the he was leaving the city’s finances Districts, 2012-2020 they modestly had that effect. in “excellent condition”—a quote his political opponents eagerly took District Total White Black Asian Hispanic Non-White advantage of (Mulligan 2011). No Number Population Non- Non- Non- VAP VAP ethics violations or criminal charges Hispanic Hispanic Hispanic were ever filed, but his polling numbers VAP VAP VAP suffered as a result. He appeared 1 526,283 75.64% 6.15% 3.22% 11.94% 24.36% distinctly vulnerable going into the 2 526,284 83.83% 3.39% 2.90% 8.52% 16.17% 2012 election (Cohen 2012). Table 1: Rhode Island Congressional Districts, 2012

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting in Rhode Island

In addition to the controversy Despite controversy, the final The Future of Redistricting surrounding Cicilline, other redistricting plan received in Rhode Island criticisms were raised over the lack overwhelming support in the General By the end of the latest redistricting of transparency in certain aspects of Assembly, and was signed by the session, a significant amount of the process. At one point Common governor without major incident. frustration with the process had Cause suggested that the redistricting Governor Chafee, a former Republican been voiced by various watchdog process should stop, and that the U.S. Senator who won the governor’s groups. The exclusive power of the commission had provided “incomplete office running as an Independent, legislative branch in the process, lack information about maximizing never voiced any criticisms of the of transparency, and the seemingly minority representation to justify their redistricting plan. A veto from the brazen political motivations behind decisions” (Edgar 2011). Some state governor, however, would have made the changes all rank highly on the list representatives also complained about little difference since Democrats have of grievances. Even so, the chances the lack of transparency, although a veto-proof majority in the General of actual reform in the process seem in general the protests over this lack Assembly. This may partially explain dim at best, given the current state of of information never moved beyond Chafee’s relative silence on the topic the system. Politicians in the General statements of disapproval (Marcelo (Blake 2011; Thornton 2012). No Assembly will certainly resist the idea 2011; Klepper 2011). court cases were filed against the of giving up some of their power to the congressional districts;2 however, the Aside from comments about the executive branch, never mind a truly state Republican Party eventually did lack of information on the impact of independent commission. Democratic file one against the new state House minorities, few objections to the new Party leaders would similarly have districts map (Edgar 2012). Cicilline, 27 congressional districts were raised little incentive to give up power when meanwhile, rebounded significantly in by minority groups. This may have to they dominate the political process the polls in the weeks preceding the do with the small size of the state’s so thoroughly, particularly during 2012 general election, and in the end minority populations. These groups the current string of Republican and he sailed to a decisive 53.0 percent to gave more attention to the state Independent governors. Perhaps more 40.8 percent victory over Republican legislative districts, where minority importantly, state politicians have candidate Brendan Doherty. Langevin voters and representatives were more yet to face significant pressure from also held his seat without difficulty, heavily affected. Rhode Island voters on the issue, since garnering 55.7 percent of the vote (RI redistricting tends to be a low visibility In addition, it is worth noting that the Board of Elections 2012). issue. Without significant pressure relationship between Hispanics and In hindsight, Cicilline’s victory is not from the grassroots level, the process African-Americans in the state has particularly surprising. Rhode Island is unlikely to change. been tepid at best. The two groups has a plurality of voters registered have competed for power in the State A political movement to change the as Independent, and these voters in House, often at the expense of the process before the next round of the past have been open to choosing other. For example, Rhode Island’s redistricting, however, may make little Republican candidates at the state voter ID law, an anomaly in such a difference for the state’s congressional level. With that said, the state’s voters liberal state, was passed partly out of districts. Rhode Island has started to have shown little taste for the policies voter concerns about corruption, but lose population since the last census, of the national Republican Party, also because of some support from after only barely managing to avoid and candidates that get tied to more African-American politicians in the falling to single district status in the conservative national candidates, such R.I. House (Moakley 2013). The lack last cycle. Unless this trend reverses, as Mitt Romney, tend to do poorly. of a united front by minority groups, Rhode Island will more than likely lose Cicilline’s relative success then may relatively small minority populations, one of its districts in 2020 and will no have more to do with his campaign’s and a focus on state legislature longer need to be concerned about ability to tie Doherty to Romney than districts thus meant that the effect redrawing its Congressional districts with the relatively smaller changes to of the new congressional districts on (Parker 2012). his district (Cohen 2012). minorities received little attention. 2 Given the U.S. Supreme Court’s reluctance to strike down instances of partisan gerrymandering, it is hard to imagine what sort of action might have succeeded.

The 2010 Round of Congressional Redistricting in New England Redistricting in Rhode Island

Conclusion Bibliography McDonald, Michael, and Micah The last round of redistricting in Altman. Public Mapping Project, http:// Rhode Island provides an excellent “2012 Rhode Island Presidential www.publicmapping. org/what-is- example of how political the process Results.” Politico, November 19, 2012. redistricting/redistricting-criteria-the- can become, even in a state where voting-rights-act. “A Breakdown of R.I.’s Redistricting one party dominates. Redistricting Process.” Advocacy Solutions, Moakley, Maureen. 2013. “Voter ID in in a two-district state can actually September 7, Rhode Island.” New England Journal of be quite contentious at times, as this Political Science 16 (2): 358–370. case illustrates, since it essentially Blake, Aaron. 2011. “R.I. Rep. Cicilline boils down to a zero-sum game. Gets Help in Contentious Redistricting Mulligan, John. 2011. “Cicilline Calls Changes in Rhode Island that benefited Battle — The Washington Post.” The Financial Critique a Political Attack.” the vulnerable Representative Washington Post, December 20. Providence Journal, April 21. Cicilline were made at the expense Cohen, Micah. 2012. “Rhode Island: Nesi, Ted. WPRI Eyewitness News, of Representative Langevin, and The Most Elastic State.” New York June 2, 2011. http://blogs.wpri. many critics alleged that political Times, October 18. com/2011/06/02/rhode-islands- maneuvering to protect Cicilline played teeny-tiny-little-congressional- a heavy hand in the map’s design. In Edgar, Randal. 2012. “Redistricting Bill districts/. response, the commission attempted Advances Despite Objections.” The to justify its decision by saying Providence Journal, January 26. Parker, Paul Edward. 2012. “Census: R.I. that the new map tries to increase One of Two States to Lose Population “Gemma says Democrat ranks are 28 minority political power in District 1, from 2011 to 2012.” Providence Journal, thinning as voters shed party ties.” The but this claim remains only partially December 20. Providence Journal and Politifact Rhode substantiated since the commission Island, July 12, 2010. Parker, Paul Edward. 2011. “Census: refused to share information on voting Hispanic Growth saves RI seat in behavior. The process in the Ocean Klepper, David. 2011. “Critics: RI Congress.” The Providence Journal, State is unlikely to change due to lack Redistricting Plans Benefit Cicilline.” March 23, 2011. of visibility and political will, despite The Boston Globe, December 13. widespread frustration from certain ———. 2012. “Reinvent RI: Minority Levitt, Justin. Loyola Law School, “All interest groups. Even so, concerns communities growing rapidly as white About Redistricting.” Last modified about redrawing congressional districts population declines.” The Providence 2013. http://redistricting.lls.edu/states- will likely be rendered obsolete by Journal, December 16, 2012. RI.php. 2020 if the state continues to lose Redistricting Online, “Federal Laws population over the next decade. Mackun, Paul, and Steven Wilson. Governing Redistricting.” http:// “Population Distribution and Change: redistrictingonline.org/redistlawreview. 2000 to 2010.” US Census Bureau. html. (2011). http://www.census.gov/prod/ cen2010/briefs/c2010br-01.pd Rhode Island Reapportionment Office, “Rhode Island Redistricting Project.” Marcelo, Philip. 2011. “Republican http://www.riredistricting.com/. Candidate Doherty Blasts R.I. Redistricting Plan.” The Providence Special Commission on Reapportionment Journal, December 13. December 19, 2011 State House: Meeting Minutes. 2011. Providence, RI. http:// ———. 2012. “Common Cause Calls www.riredistricting.com/commission/ for R.I. to Stop Redistricting Process.” meetings The Providence Journal, December 13. Thornton, Kat. 2012. “R.I. General Assembly Redraws Voting Lines.” Brown Daily Herald, February 2.

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