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Home , Donald Carcieri, John Olver, Ken Block (politician), Mike Capuano, Paul LePage

Election Update SPECIAL POLICY POLICY AND RESEARCH BRIEF 45 Temple Place , MA 02111 Fall 2010 Race 10/13/10

New England Election Coverage & Forecasts Written by: Political Climate and Analysis P.1 Carolyn House and Senate Committee P.2 Morwick Race P.3 Carolyn Morwick is a consultant & Races P.4 at NEBHE and former director of New Hampshire, & the Caucus of New England State

Legislatures Vermont Races P.5

Edited by: A High-Stakes Election for New England. John O. Harney Like the traditional four seasons in New District in New Hampshire vacated his post to run for Executive Editor Gregg’s Senate seat. New England Journal of England, election season has the potential

Higher Education to bring about stunning change. This year, In what some are calling, “the factor”, races at the gubernatorial, federal and state House members from each New England state are legislative levels will have significant impacts being challenged, except (D-Mass.) who Matthew A. Crellin on education and policy in the region for years is running unopposed. Members of New England’s con- Director of Policy and Research to come. gressional delegation occupy positions on key commit-

tees. But in recent years, the region’s clout has waned. The political landscape in New England will be dramati- New England’s influence on the Senate Committee on POLICY AND RESEARCH cally altered following the Nov. 2 midterm elections. At Health, Education, Labor and Pensions has diminished NEBHE’s Department of least four of the six New England states will elect new Policy and Research serves considerably with the passing of Edward M. Kennedy governors. Governors M. Jodi Rell (R-Conn.), John E. as a resource to education, who chaired the HELP Committee, and the retirements Baldacci (D-Maine), (R-R.I.) and James government, and business of Dodd and Gregg. The remaining New Englanders on Douglas (R-Vt.) are not seeking re-election. Deval leaders throughout New the committee include Jack Reed (D-R.I.) and Bernie England. It seeks to provide Patrick (D-Mass.) and John Lynch (D-N.H.) are seeking Sanders (I-Vt.). Dodd also chaired the powerful Senate timely information and policy re-election, but both face challengers. Committee on Banks, Housing and Urban Affairs. research to inform decision- makers and the public about At the federal level, two new U.S. senators will be elect- issues relating to higher With anger running high among voters and jobs front ed from Connecticut and New Hampshire. Democrat education and workforce and center, those seeking to be re-elected are in many Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Republican Judd Gregg development throughout cases facing strong opposition. Depending on the out- of New Hampshire are not seeking re-election. In addi- New England. come of midterm elections, key committees in congress, tion to the Senate seats, two seats in the U.S. House which influence education, workforce development poli- of Representatives opened up when William Delahunt cy and investment may undergo more changes. of the 10th Congressional District in Massachusetts

retired, and Paul Hodes of the 2nd Congressional Michael K. Thomas President and CEO About NEBHE:

The New England Board of Congressional Higher Education (NEBHE) promotes greater educational Committees opportunities and services for the residents of New England. In pursuit of this mission, Current members of these we work across the six New committees from New England states to: England are as follows: * Engage and assist leaders in the assessment, develop- ment, and implementation of sound education practices and policies of regional significance. * Promote policies, programs, and best practices to assist the states in implementing impor- House Budget Committee John Tierney (D-Mass.), member of the key Subcommittee tant regional higher education policies. Focus: setting total spending limits Joe Courtney (D-Conn.), on Labor, HHS, Education and * Promote regional coopera- for the federal budget Carol Shea Porter (D-N.H.) Related Agencies tion and programs that encour- age the efficient use and shar- ing of educational resources. New England members: James House Ways and Means Senate Health, Education, * Provide leadership to McGovern (D-Mass.), Niki Committee Labor and Pensions (HELP) strengthen the relationship Tsongas (D-Mass.) Focus: all federal tax policies, Committee between higher education and the economic well-being of New Temporary Assistance for Needy Focus: authorizes Workforce England. House Appropriations Families, Trade Adjustment Investment Act, Higher Education Committee Assistance Act, Perkins Act, Adult Basic Policy & Research Staff: Matthew Crellin – Director of Policy Focus: discretionary federal fund- Education. and Research ing, Subcommittee on Labor, HHS, New England members: Education and Related Agencies John Larson (D-Conn.), New England members: John O. Harney – Executive Editor, New England Journal of Higher determines funding levels for job (D-Mass.) Reed (D-R.I.), Education training, education and human Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) services based on House Budget Senate Budget Committee Dodd and Gregg are mem- Charles Desmond – Senior Fellow Committee funding targets Focus: sets total spending limits bers of the key Subcommittee Carolyn Morwick – Policy for the federal budget on Employment and Workplace Consultant New England members: Safety until 12/31/10.)

Darrell Aaron – Policy Research Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.), New England members: Graduate Assistant (D-Mass.) Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), Senate Finance Committee (D-R.I.) Focus: Authorizes all federal tax Shoshana Akins – Communications Assistant House Education and Labor policies, Temporary Assistance for Committee Senate Appropriations Needy Families, Trade Adjustment Christine Cassis – Communications Focus: federal programs in educa- Committee Assistance. Assistant tion from preschool through higher Focus: sets funding levels for job Ian Davis – Administrative education, including Workforce training, education and human ser- New England members: Coordinator Investment Act, Higher Education vices (D-Mass.),

David Mabe – Policy Research Act, Perkins Act for Career, Olympia J. Snowe (R-Maine) Graduate Assistant Technical Education and Adult New England members: Neither Kerry nor Snowe are Basic Education Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.), members of the key Subcommittee Courtney Wilk – Policy Research Graduate Assistant (R-Maine) on Social Security, Pensions and New England members: and Jack Reed (D-R.I), who is a Family Policy. Contested Races in

Connecticut New England Governor: District 2 Joe Courtney (D) Thomas Foley (R) Janet Peckinpaugh (R) Dannel Malloy (D) Tom Marsh (I) Democratic U.S. Rep. Courtney, who is seeking a third term, is Warren Mossler (I) a member of the House Education and Labor Committee. He is being challenged by Republican Peckinpaugh, a small business Democrat Malloy, a former prosecutor and mayor of Stamford will owner. The latest polls conducted by Merriman River Group show face off with Republican businessman, Foley. Latest polls show Courtney leading Peckinpaugh 55% to 41%. the race tightening with Foley gaining. The latest Quinnipiac University poll gives Malloy a 3-point lead, while Rasmussen District 3 polls say Malloy is up by 5 points. The polls also indicate that Rosa DeLauro (D) Independent voters are breaking for the Republican candidate, Jerry Labriola (R) Foley. Democratic U.S. Rep. DeLauro has served ten terms and sits U.S. Senate: on the powerful House Appropriations Committee, where she chairs the Subcommittee on Agriculture and is a member of the Richard Blumenthal (D) Subcommittee on Labor, HHS, Labor, Education and Related Linda McMahon (R) Agencies. She is being challenged by Republican Labriola , an attorney and treasurer of the Republican State Committee. This Senate seat has been vacated by long time Democratic DeLauro currently leads Labriola by more than 20 points. Sen. Dodd, who chose not to seek re-election. Attorney General Blumenthal, a Democrat, hopes to prevail over Republican District 4 McMahon, former head of World Wrestling Entertainment, James Himes (D) a Stamford based company. The latest Rasmussen poll shows Dan Debicella (R) Blumenthal leading with 54% to McMahon’s 43%. Connecticut’s 4th Congressional District is a statistical dead heat. U.S. House of Representatives: Democratic U.S. Rep. Himes is seeking his second term and is being challenged by Republican state Sen. Debicella, who has District 1 a narrow lead according to the latest polls by Merriman River John Larson (D) Group. Political observers say the race will be decided by the city Ann Brickley (R) of Bridgeport.

Democratic U.S. Rep. Larson has served six terms and is currently District 5 part of Speaker ’s leadership team and a member of Christopher Murphy (D) the powerful House Ways and Means Committee. Larson is facing Sam Caligiuri (R) a tough fight from Republican Brickley, a professional engineer, who worked for United Technologies Corp. and GE. Brickley has Two-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Murphy has fallen behind chal- moved up in the polls and now trails Larson by 7 points. lenger, Republican State Sen. Caligiuri. The latest Merriman River Group poll shows Cailigiuri moving ahead of Murphy. Maine Massachusetts Governor: Governor: Two-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Tsongas cur- rently serves on the House Armed Services Deval Patrick (D) Committee and the House Budget Committee. (D) Charles Baker (R) She is being is challenged by Republican busi- Paul LePage (R) Tim Cahill (I) nessman Golnik of Carlisle, and Independent Jill Stein (Green Party) candidates, Brown of Chelmsford and Clark of Elliot Cutler (I) Berlin. Shawn Moody (I) The race for governor of Massachusetts Kevin Scott (I) continues to be close. Democratic Gov. District 6 Patrick, seeking a second term, is tied with John Tierney (D) Republican Baker, former CEO of Harvard Bill Hudak (R) The race for governor is tighten- Pilgrim Health Care. In a messy political situ- ation, Independent candidate, Cahill, charged Democratic U.S. Rep. Tierney, is a member of ing. The Maine Center for Public Republicans with undermining his campaign the House Education and Labor Committee Opinion’s most recent poll shows (Cahill’s lieutenant governor left the campaign and the House Select Intelligence Committee. Republican LePage virtually tied and endorsed Baker) while the Baker campaign Tierney is being challenged by Republican countered that Cahill has used state employees Hudak, an attorney from Saugus. The race is with Democrat Mitchell. Results in his campaign. Cahill may earn some sympa- expected to tighten given recent events involv- show LePage at 30%, Mitchell thy from voters but not enough to make a dif- ing the congressman’s wife Patrice Tierney, ference. Green Party candidate, Dr. Jill Stein is who has admitted to irregularities in filing tax at 29%, Independent candidates expected to run a distant fourth. returns. Cutler at 11%, Moody at 5% and Scott at 1.5%, with 24% of voters U.S. House of Representatives District 7 Edward Markey (D) still undecided. District 1 Gerry Dembrowski (R) John Olver (D) Bill Gunn (R) The dean of the Massachusetts congressio- U.S. House of Representatives: Michael Engel (I) nal delegation, Markey has served 17 terms. He currently chairs the Select Committee on District 1 Democratic U.S. Rep. Olver is a solid bet, Energy Independence and Global Warming and according to the Cook Political Report. The the Energy and Environment Subcommittee Chellie Pingree (D) 10-term congressman is being challenged by of the House Energy and Commerce Dean Scontras (R) Republican Gunn of Ware, who owns a con- Committee. Markey is opposed by Republican struction company, and Engel, an Independent Dembrowski, a chiropractor from Woburn. from Southampton. Olver sits on the House Markey is expected to win re-election. A new poll by the Maine Center for Appropriations Committee. Public Opinion shows Republican District 8 District 2 Michael Capuano (D) Scontras, a co-owner of an alterna- Richard Neal (D) tive energy company, is gaining on Tom Wesley (R) Democratic U.S. Rep. Capuano is running unopposed for a 7th term. Capuano serves on Democratic U.S. Rep. Pingree, who Ten-term Democratic U.S. Rep. Neal is the House Financial Services Committee and is seeking her second term. Some expected to be easily re-elected. He is being the House Transportation and Infrastructure polls have Pingree leading by as challenged by Republican Wesley, a business- Committee. man and former military pilot. Neal sits on the many as 15 points, while others say House Ways and Means Committee. District 9 her lead has narrowed to 7 points. Stephen Lynch (D) District 3 Vernon Harrison (R) Pingree serves on the House Armed Jim McGovern (D) Phil Dunkelbarger (I) Services Committee and the House Marty Lamb (R) Rules Committee. Democratic U.S. Rep. Lynch is a member Democratic U.S. Rep. McGovern is seeking of the House Financial Services Committee his eighth term. He serves as vice chair of the and the House Committee on Oversight and District 2 Rules Committee and a member of the House Government Reform. He is seeking a sixth Budget Committee. He is being challenged by term and is opposed by Republican Harrison of Michael Michaud (D) Republican Lamb, a real estate attorney from Braintree who is employed in the IT field, and Jason Levesque (R) Holliston, and Independent Patrick Barron of Independent Phil Dunkelbarger of Westwood. Worcester. McGovern is expected to win. Lynch is expected to win re-election. Democratic U.S. Rep. Michaud is District 4 District 10 seeking his sixth term. He is facing (D) William Keating (D Sean Bielat (R) Jeff Perry (R) strong opposition from business- Maryanne Lewis (I) man and army veteran, Levesque. Democratic U.S. Rep. Frank, seeking a 16th Jim Sheets (I) Recent polls put Michaud at term, faces his toughest re-election bid in two Joe VanNes (Bring Home the Troops) decades. Frank, the chairman of the House 44% and Levesque at 32%, with Financial Services Committee, is being chal- Those vying to fill Democrat Delahunt’s place 24%undecided. lenged by Republican Bielat, an ex-Marine and include Democrat William Keating, a district businessman from Brookline. Recent polls con- attorney and former state senator; Republican ducted by Bielat’s campaign, show Frank ahead Jeff Perry, a state representative; and indepen- by 10 points. dent candidates, Maryanne Lewis, a former state representative, Jim Sheets, former mayor District 5 of Quincy, and Joe VanNes (Bring Home (D) the Troops). Keating is seen as the candidate Jon Golnik (R) to beat. While party registration favors a Dale Brown (I) Democrat, Scott Brown won 60%of the vote in Bob Clark (I) this district. New Hampshire Rhode Island Governor: Democratic Rep. Shea Governor: sented by Patrick Kennedy, a Brown Porter is seeking a third University poll shows Democratic John Lynch (D) term. She is a member Frank Caprio (D) mayor of Providence Cicilline in John Stephen (R) of the House Armed John Robitaille (R) the lead with 39%, Republican state Services Committee, the (I) Rep. Loughlin at 21%, Independent New Hampshire’s House Education and (Moderate Party) Raposa at 6% and 31% undecided. Democratic Gov. Lynch Labor Committee. She is is running for an unprec- opposed by Republican Two months ago, Democrat District 2 edented fourth (two- Frank Guinta, former Caprio and Independent Lincoln James Langevin (D) year) term. Lynch is mayor of Manchester. Chafee were tied. The latest Brown Mark Zaccaria (R) opposed by Republican The latest poll conducted University poll shows Caprio with a Stephen, former head of by the UNH Survey widening lead over Chafee. Caprio In Rhode Island’s 2nd Congressional New Hampshire Health Center for WMUR is now in the lead with 30%, fol- District, incumbent Democratic U.S. and Human Services shows Guinta leading lowed by Chafee at 23%, Republican Rep. Langevin has a comfortable Department. Lynch is 49% to 39%, reversing a Robitaille at 14% and Moderate lead over his opponent, Republican considered the front- 15-point lead previously Party candidate Block at 1%. Zaccaria. The latest Brown poll runner. held by Shea Porter. shows Langevin leading with 47% of U.S. House of Representatives the vote over Zacarria’s 13%.Former U.S. Senate: District 2 U.S. Rep. Bass leads newcomer Ann Kuster (D) District 1 Annie Kuster, an attorney and com- Kelly Ayotte (R) Charlie Bass (R) (D) munity activist, by 5 points. Prior Paul Hodes (D) John Loughlin (R) to the primaries, Bass enjoyed an This is an open seat, Gregory Raposa (I) 18-point lead. While Kuster hopes Republican Ayotte, New vacated by Democratic to close the gap, a high turnout by Hampshire’s Attorney U.S. Rep. Hodes. Former In the race for Rhode Island’s 1st Republican voters could tip the elec- General, will face off U.S. Rep. Bass leads Congressional District once repre- tion. with Democratic U.S. newcomer Annie Kuster, Vermont Rep. Hodes, who gave an attorney and commu- Governor: Senate for 36 years where he chairs up his congressional seat nity activist, by 5 points. Brian Dubie (R) the Senate Judiciary Committee to run for the senate seat Prior to the primaries, Peter Shumlin (D) and is a member of the Senate vacated by Gregg. The Bass enjoyed an 18-point Agriculture Committee and Senate latest Rasmussen poll lead. While Kuster hopes The latest Rasmussen poll shows Appropriations Committee. shows Ayotte at 51% to to close the gap, a high Democrat Shumlin leading his Republican opponent, Lt. Governor U.S. House of Representatives Hodes’s 44%. turnout by Republican Brian Dubie by three points. But Peter Welch (D) voters could tip the elec- only 2% of those polled had decided Paul Beaudry (R) U.S. House of tion. whom they will vote for. Representatives Democratic U.S. Rep. Welch is U.S. Senate seeking re-election for a third term. District 1 Patrick Leahy (D) Welch sits on the House Energy Len Britton (R) and Commerce Committee and the Carol Shea Porter (D) House Oversight and Government Frank Guinta (R) Democratic U.S. Sen. Leahy is Reform Committee. Welch is well expected to win handily over ahead of his Republican challenger Republican businessman Len Britton and Tea Party Leader Paul Beaudry of Taftsville. Leahy has served in the by 30 points.