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Bradford District Covid-19 Economic Impacts Overview 9Th November 2020 1

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Bradford District Covid-19 Economic Impacts Overview 9Th November 2020 1 Bradford District Covid-19 Economic Impacts Overview 9th November 2020 1. Economic Overview UK GDP recovered strongly in recent months Will be 2022 before economy recovers to pre-Covid levels Brexit risks to forecast growth Brexit risks to forecast growth 1. Labour Market Unemployment has risen sharply • Claimant count numbers have increased from 17,090 in March 2020 to 31,525 in September 2020, an increase of 14,435 (85%). • The Bradford District claimant rate was 9.5% in Septemer 2020 – the highest in West Yorkshire. • Leeds City Region is rate 6.8% and UK rate is 6.5%. Ward claimant rate Claimant rates vary from 17.0% in Manningham to 2.9% in Wharfedale. The highest rates are in Bradford inner city wards with many of them having some of the highest rates in the UK. % Manningham 17.0 Little Horton 15.0 Bowling and Barkerend 14.6 Bradford Moor 13.5 City 13.4 Great Horton 13.2 Toller 12.3 Keighley Central 11.6 Heaton 11.3 Tong 11.1 Eccleshill 10.8 Royds 9.7 Thornton and Allerton 9.5 Clayton and Fairweather Green 9.4 Bolton and Undercliffe 9.3 Wibsey 9.3 Keighley West 8.8 Windhill and Wrose 8.3 Wyke 8.3 Keighley East 7.2 Shipley 6.5 Queensbury 6.0 Idle and Thackley 5.3 Bingley Rural 5.2 Baildon 4.9 Bingley 4.6 Worth Valley 4.5 Ilkley 3.5 Craven 3.4 Wharfedale 2.9 Ward claimant rate percentage point increase March-September Some of the highest increases in wards not affected by highest unemployment levels pre-COVID, for example Toller & Heaton % pt inc. Manningham 7.3 Bradford Moor 6.5 Toller 6.2 Little Horton 6.1 Great Horton 6.0 Bowling and Barkerend 5.7 Heaton 5.6 City 5.3 Keighley Central 5.0 Clayton and Fairweather Green 4.7 Eccleshill 4.6 Thornton and Allerton 4.5 Tong 4.3 Royds 4.3 Wibsey 4.2 Bolton and Undercliffe 4.0 Keighley West 3.9 Wyke 3.8 Keighley East 3.5 Windhill and Wrose 3.3 Shipley 3.2 Queensbury 3.1 Bingley Rural 3.0 Worth Valley 3.0 Baildon 2.9 Idle and Thackley 2.9 Bingley 2.6 Ilkley 2.5 Wharfedale 2.1 Craven 1.9 Bradford District youth claimant rate highest in the country • The Bradford District youth claimant rate (% of 16-24 year old residents) has increased to 11.7% in September 2020 - a 5.7 percentage point increase since March, when it was 6.0%. • Of the largest towns and cities in the country, Bradford has the highest youth claimant rate and it is significantly above the UK rate (7.6%). Latest data indicates number of workers furloughed has halved • 62.000 employee jobs furloughed in May reduced to 31,000 in July • Retail furloughed employments fell from 12,800 in May to 5,600 in July • Manufacturing furloughed employments fell from 10,700 in May to 4,700 in July • Hospitality furloughed employments 8,800 in May to 5,150 in July Furloughed jobs fall not caused rise in unemployment…Yet • Number of furloughed employments from an estimated 57,000 in May to around 33,000 in July - a fall of 24,000 • Claimant Count rose by 560 over the same time period • However, recent announcements by TSB, Fullers, Whitbreads, TUI, Virgin, Boots, Jet2, Costa etc. suggest large proportion of remaining furloughed jobs are at risk Employment forecast to rise in the medium to long term 1. Business Conditions Majority of business are now trading … But around half are operating below normal levels… Business credit scores are improving Bradford businesses slightly more at risk compared to regional and national picture Business Start Ups on a par with 2019 overall • Number of businesses starting up during the first eight months of this year compared with the corresponding period of last year was broadly unchanged(-0.8%). • This growth rate ranks Bradford at 15 out of the 317 English districts. 1. Place Impacts City Centre footfall is 60% of pre footfall City Centre National Lockdown Begins Non-essential Retail allowed to open - coronavirus levels coronavirus Local Restrictions Imposed Keighley Town Centre footfall 66% of pre-coronavirus levels Keighley performing slightly better than the city centre in line with Centre for Cities data showing small towns and cities performing better than large cities Markets footfall recovery following lockdown Bradford performing better than most large cities.
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