www.policymagazine.ca January—February 2021

Canadian Politics and Public Policy

2021—The Year Ahead

$6.95 Volume 9 – Issue 1 CN_Policy_ad_04_17.indd 1 2020-10-14 13:39 Clean energy, off the grid. Made by bold research.

A sustainable way to transport clean energy across Canada and the world

One big barrier to a low carbon economy? The lack of a safe, affordable way to transport clean energy. McGill researchers are developing new ways of storing and generating clean energy with reusable metal powders. This technology can help us power remote communities, electrify the transport sector, and trade clean energy across the world.

Jeffrey Bergthorson and Keena Trowell CanadianIn ThisPolitics Issue and Pu2b lic FromPoli cythe Editor / L. Ian MacDonald 2021—The Year Ahead Canadian Politics and 3 Kevin Lynch and Paul Deegan Public Policy Brace Yourselves: The Tests of 2021 Jeremy Kinsman EDITOR AND PUBLISHER 6 L. Ian MacDonald Global 2021: A Saner, Less Fragmented World [email protected] 9 Dan Woynillowicz and Eric St. Pierre ASSOCIATE EDITOR How a New Bilateral Bromance Could Enhance Climate Action Lisa Van Dusen [email protected] 12 Kevin Page Fiscal Policy and the Post-COVID Recovery CONTRIBUTING WRITERS Thomas S. Axworthy, 15 Dr. Tim Evans Andrew Balfour, Yaroslav Baran, Can the Delivery of COVID-19 Vaccines Match the Speed of James Baxter, Derek H. Burney, their Discovery? Catherine Cano, Stéphanie Chouinard, Margaret Clarke, Rachel Curran, 17 John Delacourt Paul Deegan, John Delacourt, An End to the Annus Horribilis? Team Trudeau’s Year Ahead Susan Delacourt, Graham Fraser, Dan Gagnier, Helaina Gaspard, 20 Geoff Norquay and Yaroslav Baran Martin Goldfarb, Sarah Goldfeder, Erin O’Toole’s 2021 To-Do List: Broaden the Base Patrick Gossage, Frank Graves, Robin V. Sears Jeremy Kinsman, Shachi Kurl, 23  Brad Lavigne, Kevin Lynch, Canada’s 2021 Political Forecast: Less Trump Noise, Leslie MacKinnon, Peter Mansbridge, More Sabre Rattling Carissima Mathen, , Elizabeth May Velma McColl, David McLaughlin, 25 David Mitchell, Don Newman, The Greens’ —Ready to Make History, Again Geoff Norquay, Fen Osler-Hampson, Kevin Page, Robin V. Sears, America 2021 Vianne Timmons, Brian Topp, Lori Turnbull, Jaime Watt, 27 Sarah Goldfeder Anthony Wilson-Smith In Between What Was and What Could Be America WEB DESIGN on the World Stage Nicolas Landry Lisa Van Dusen [email protected] 29 Joe Biden’s New Role: Humanist-in-Chief SOCIAL MEDIA EDITOR John Weekes Grace MacDonald 31 [email protected] Canada’s Goal: Re-engaging the World on Trade GRAPHIC DESIGN & PRODUCTION Canada and the World Monica Thomas [email protected] 33 Stéphanie Chouinard Policy Revising the Official Languages Act: Will History Repeat Itself? Policy is published six times annually 36 Lori Turnbull by LPAC Ltd. The contents are Maintaining Confidence in the Convention of Confidence copyrighted, but may be reproduced with permission and attribution in 38  print, and viewed free of charge at the Canada as a Sentinel of Freedom, Then and Now Policy home page at policymagazine.ca. Column / Don Newman Price: $6.95 per issue 40  Annual Subscription: $39.95 Playing the Prediction Game: An Election in 2021 PRINTED AND DISTRIBUTED BY St. Joseph Communications, Book Reviews 1165 Kenaston Street, Review by Anthony Wilson-Smith , Ontario, K1A 1A4 41  War: How Conflict Shaped Us Available in Air Canada Maple Leaf Margaret MacMillan Lounges across Canada, as well as VIA Rail Lounges in , Ottawa 42 Review by Derek H. Burney and . The Man Who Ran Washington: The Life and Times of James A. Baker III Now available on PressReader. Peter Baker and Susan Glasse

Cover photos: , Adam Scotti photo. Joe Biden, Gage Skidmore Flickr photo Special thanks to our sponsors and advertisers who are solely responsible for the content of their ads. Connect with us: @policy_mag facebook.com/policymagazine Everyone has the right to live free from harm and discrimination.

That’s why the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples (UNDRIP) is so important. It’s time to move forward—together.

Assembly of Learn more at First Nations SupportUNDRIP.ca #SupportUNDRIP 2

From the Editor / L. Ian MacDonald 2021—The Year Ahead elcome to our special issue, our capacity for creative, collaborative da. Our own Associate Editor Lisa Van 2021—The Year Ahead. For longer-term thinking.” Dusen, herself an experienced Wash- W openers, and to state the Foreign affairs writer Jeremy Kinsman ington hand, looks at the challenges obvious, it’s impossible to look at the was at the table in an era when Cana- facing Joe Biden and Kamala Harris year just beginning without looking da’s voice as a middle power mattered as they step into “the metaphorical- at the one we’ve recently completed: in the world. He pointedly asks: “Do ly ransacked Oval Office.” And John 2020—The Year of the Pandemic. we still have the stuff, the will and Weekes, Canada’s chief negotiator on the first NAFTA, points out that much The year that changed everything. ability to be a key player again?” of the Canada-US bilateral comes The year of the virus that swept ashore Pandemic or post-pandemic, climate down to trade, trade, trade. worldwide and killed over a million change remains an even larger threat Back home, noted fiscal authority and a half people before Christmas. to the world’s health, economy and Kevin Page looks at the federal spend- The year that changed the way we environment. Dan Woynillowicz and ing envelope going into Budget 2021. live and the way we work. The year of Eric St. Pierre look at environmental And McGill’s Dr. Tim Evans, Execu- the mask and social distancing, The issues between Canada and the US as tive Director of the federal health task year we discovered the difference be- well as the global conversation. force, weighs the challenges of getting tween working from home and hav- With 2021 considered a likely election vaccines into the arms of . ing to work from home. The year of year in Canada, we offer a package on In Canada and the World, Stépha- the Zoom call. The year of the virtu- the positioning and prospects of four nie Chouinard writes of the Trudeau al school class. The year of postponed parties, not from the perspective of government’s promise in its throne weddings, cancelled funerals and fore- pundits but from the vantage point of speech to update the 1969 Official gone grad dances. The year of ex- some of the most experienced opera- Languages Act, noting it’s not clear hausted health care workers and se- tives. John Delacourt looks back at the what that means for minority French niors abandoned in long-term care pandemic and the events of 2020 as a and English-speaking communities. residences. The year, as it ended, with formative experience for the Liberals, vaccines on the horizon. who “can take stock and be hopeful.” Lori Turnbull writes of the game of And the year of government, present For the Conservatives, longtime strat- parliamentary chicken going on be- in our lives with emergency relief pro- egists Geoff Norquay and Yaroslav Ba- tween the Liberals and the opposi- tion over the government falling on a grams to help workers without work, ran write of Erin O’Toole’s need to non-confidence vote and contends it businesses suddenly out of business, lead a united party by sidelining some endangers the constitutional conven- and families with no means of keep- of the “SoCon” voices of intolerance, tion that the government either has ing a roof over their heads. The year and making a home for moderate Pro- the confidence of the House, or not. fiscal frameworks became redundant, gressive Conservatives. with record deficits and debts as a per- On the NDP, onetime national direc- And Conservative foreign affairs critic centage of output. tor Robin Sears notes that for a fresh- Michael Chong looks back at his par- ents, post-war immigrants to Cana- And the year of the defeat of Donald man leader, been an ef- da from Hong Kong and the Nether- Trump and his replacement by a nor- fective presence in a minority House. lands, as an example of Canada as a mal person, Joe Biden. How he plays the balance of power card is a big question going into the beacon of hope and freedom. hatever the new normal budget. For the Greens, former lead- And columnist Don Newman looks may be, the year ahead er Elizabeth May writes that the par- ahead to a Canadian election and pre- W may result in a different ty made the right call in choosing An- dicts who’s going to win and why. normal. And we’ve brought together namie Paul as her successor. Finally, in Book Reviews, Anthony a group of outstanding writers to help Looking at America 2021, former Wilson-Smith reviews Margaret Mac- us think about it. State Department officer Sarah Gold- Millan’s War: How Conflict Shaped To begin, Kevin Lynch and Paul Dee- feder writes that Team Biden will be- Us. And Derek Burney looks at Peter gan enumerate policy and social chal- gin from a well-formed institutional Baker and Susan Glasser’s The Man lenges confronting Canadians in outlook on the US global leadership Who Ran Washington a bio of James 2021. As they write: “These will test role, and its relationship with Cana- A. Baker.

Policy 3

Then Vice President Joe Biden, weeks before leaving office in 2016, with Justin Trudeau in the PM’s former Centre Block office. Biden takes office as President in January 2021 with the US, Canada and the world in a very different place with the pandemic and a new post-Trump political era. Adam Scotti photo Brace Yourselves: The Tests of 2021

Where 2020 was a year of shocks, 2021 will be a year of Kevin Lynch tests. Tests of international collaboration, of policy inno- and Paul Deegan vation, of systemic integrity and of societal resilience. We year ago, most Canadians have experienced the previously unthinkable in so many had never heard of a novel A coronavirus. Yet, COVID-19, negative ways recently, that if we can meet the challenges a particularly virulent virus, dom- of the next year, our sense of the possible might just take inated our lives and livelihoods in a turn for the better. 2020 and will continue to shape them throughout 2021. Its toll on public health, economies, govern- ment finances, businesses, and fam- ilies will last for decades.

We had been warned. On May 15, 2017, the cover of TIME magazine blared, “WARNING: WE ARE NOT READY FOR THE NEXT PANDEMIC”. A second “black swan” crisis in just two decades points to the need for bet- ter contingency planning and greater resiliency built into our core health, financial, and economic systems. We

January—February 2021 4 should not forget these lessons as we look ahead. Canadian governments Canadian governments and Canadians face a and Canadians face a number of number of must-tackle challenges in 2021. must-tackle challenges in 2021. These These will test our capacity for creative, collaborative, will test our capacity for creative, col- longer-term thinking, and whether we can raise our policy laborative, longer-term thinking, and game to emerge stronger and more resilient. whether we can raise our policy game to emerge stronger and more resilient in an uncertain and interconnected post-COVID world.

The first test for all governments is European producers to Canadians are face a troubling drop in longer-term to control the COVID-19 pandemic. firming up, we are experiencing a sig- real growth to 1.2 percent according Without flattening the COVID curve, nificant second wave of the pandem- to Bank of Canada estimates, due to a wicked combination of poor produc- the recovery will be planked. ic, leading to renewed lockdowns in various parts of the country and in- tivity performance, weak capital in- While newly developed vaccines hold creasing pressures on the health care vestment, slow labour force growth the promise of controlling the virus, system. The slower the execution of and lasting scarring from the pandem- it is the execution of the vaccination the vaccination program, the slower ic recession. That implies stagnant program itself that holds the key to the economic recovery and the great- per capita incomes, or even worse for success—delivering a two-dose vacci- er the economic and social costs. We segments of the population. As for- nation to 38 million Canadians, across should have been better prepared, par- mer Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn immense geography and various juris- ticularly after Canada’s experiences Wilkins said recently, “Businesses are dictions, and in lockstep with other with SARS in 2003 and H1N1 in 2009. investing less because of the pandem- countries. Canada’s less-than-stellar ic, and that puts a lid on how much record to date with widespread rapid potential the economy has to grow.” he second challenge is a growth testing and contact tracing elicits con- strategy for the recovery and Rebuilding Canada’s potential cern on the execution front. Add to beyond. The economy will not growth will require a clear plan to this the fact that the newly developed T return to pre-pandemic levels until improve our competitiveness, en- vaccines are neither licensed for pro- 2022, and that assumes a vaccine-as- courage productive investments and duction in Canada nor guaranteed for sisted rebound combined with a shift create a Canadian global advantage. earliest delivery in the government’s in government spending from income Governments cannot solve all prob- vaccine purchase arrangements, and and liquidity support to growth- en- lems, but they can help create the the execution risks rise. hancing measures. Beyond the imme- conditions to make the private sec- As Canada’s plans to distribute these diate challenge of recovery, which is to tor more successful. We are at one of vaccines from American, British, and get back to pre-COVID levels, we also those pivotal moments. A third challenge is the glaring ab- Canadian Real GDP Forecast sence of a fiscal anchor from the gov- ernment’s policy playbook. A fiscal anchor is not something that waits for 7 better times—it is something that is a 6 prerequisite for sustained better times. 5 Federal debt will have risen an as- 5.5% 4 tounding 75 percent between last year 3 4.0% and next year according to the Fall Economic Statement 2020. This debt 2 3.0% burden, which future generations will 1 2.0% 2020 1.7% bear, comes at both a cost and a risk. 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -1 The debt servicing cost is manageable -2 while interest rates are at abnormal- ly low levels because of the pandem- -3 ic recession, but they will gradually -4 rise as growth returns. The risk is that -5.7% -5 international financial markets begin -6 to lose faith in our ability to manage -7 our fiscal affairs—after all, how much confidence should they place on a fis- Source: BMO Economics

Policy

01/20 05/20

2030 Today: 5 cal projection of a drop in the deficit gas emissions from oil sands opera- an income issue, it is an opportuni- from nearly $400 billion this year to tions, allowing time for the province ty issue with unequal access to dig- under $100 billion by 2022 without to diversify its economy and become ital skills and broadband, and it is a any fiscal constraints. To avoid this, a global clean energy leader. This is health issue which the pandemic has and its caustic effects on growth and where new thinking and a new narra- laid bare. As Binyamin Applebaum of confidence, the government should tive is so desperately needed. As Gross the New York Times has written, “The articulate a credible fiscal anchor for argues, “Eliminating unpopular en- distribution of wealth and income these uncertain times. ergy sources or technologies, like nu- has a meaningful influence on the clear or carbon capture, from the con- distribution of opportunity, on the A related challenge is fiscal federal- versation is short-sighted. Renewable mechanics of the business cycle, and ism: provincial fiscal situations are electricity generation alone won’t on the pace of innovation.” not good, some are dire, and all be- get us there—this is an all-technolo- lieve that increased federal transfers During the COVID crisis, many low- gies-on-deck problem.” are in order, particularly since the er-wage workers were overrepresent- federal government has loudly ar- ed in essential roles in the retail and gued it has unused fiscal firepower. anada-US relations are a chal- health care sectors where working The health system clearly has to be lenge that always looms large remotely is not an option. Women better prepared for future pandem- C over Canada’s foreign and and minorities were overrepresented ics, and this will take money, part- trade policy priorities, and never more in service-sector job cuts due to the nerships and surge capacity. And, so than during the chaotic Trump pandemic. Inequality is becoming as with the Liberal government signal- presidency. While the Biden adminis- much a blocker to economic growth ling new policy ambitions in areas tration will be a welcome change for as it is an unacceptable social reali- of provincial or shared jurisdiction, most Canadians, it will come with un- ty in advanced western economies. the price tags to encourage provincial resolved issues—including pipelines, This is a challenge that Canada can buy-in will be lofty. This combina- Buy America, softwood lumber tariffs, lead on, both at home and abroad, tion of provincial fiscal gaps and fed- Huawei involvement in 5G networks but feel- good rhetorical bromides are eral policy plans will only place more and national security exemptions— not a plan. upward pressures on federal transfer that will all continue to affect the Ca- There are decades where nothing spending, and reinforce the need for nadian economy. happens and there are weeks where a fiscal anchor. Now is the time to reach out to the decades happen. This saying seems There is no question that we need to Biden administration, which will be particularly apt to describe what has transition to a low carbon, greener struggling in the fraught political af- transpired during the pandemic. And economy. But, as Samantha Gross of termath of the election, on how we we will continue to be tested, but the the Brookings Institution has argued, can work together to solve common focus will shift from the immediate “Those pushing to end fossil fuel pro- issues, not present a list of “asks” and crisis to the recovery and beyond. duction now are missing the point concerns. This could include upgrad- The longer-term challenges before that fossil fuels will still be needed for ing NORAD’s 1980s-era North Warn- us in 2021 will also demand a much some time in certain sectors.” The re- ing System in the Arctic; ensuring more innovative and cooperative ap- ality is that energy is our biggest ex- that both countries have an adequate proach to policy-making—both at port earner, and a major source of val- supply of critical goods ranging from home and with our allies. ue-added growth, well-paying jobs personal protective equipment to Having been caught flat-footed, the and tax revenues. The challenge is pharmaceutical compounds; invest- questions we need to ask ourselves how to sustain a robust Canadian en- ing in next-generation North Amer- today are do we have the necessary ergy sector and make real progress on ican energy grids and clean energy strategic planning skills within gov- climate change. It is not an “either or” production; expanding environmen- ernment, the right incentives for pri- choice, it is about achieving both. tal co-operation; and engaging China vate-sector expansion, and the col- together, with allies, where we have lective will and wisdom to “build This is not just an problem, common purpose. it is a pan-Canadian issue—both eco- back better”? nomically and politically. Why can’t The International Monetary Fund Contributing Writer Kevin Lynch was we reduce carbon dioxide emissions (IMF) has identified income inequal- formerly Clerk of the Privy Council and in the oil sands through the deploy- ity as an impediment to the recovery Vice Chair of BMO Financial Group. ment of Generation IV Small Modu- in most countries, including Cana- lar Nuclear Reactors to meet the steam da. The challenge of inequality has Contributing Writer Paul Deegan, CEO and heat requirements of Alberta’s risen significantly during the pan- of Deegan Public Strategies, was a public heavy oil industry, which are current- demic, with ongoing social, econom- affairs executive at BMO Financial ly met by carbon intensive fuels? This ic and political impacts. The IMF has Group and CN, and served in the would dramatically limit greenhouse highlighted that inequality is not just Clinton White House.

January—February 2021 6

The G7 in Toronto in 1988, when Canada was not only host, but an influential player at the table. (L to R) European Commission President Jacques Delors and G7 leaders Ciriaco De Mita; Margaret Thatcher; Ronald Reagan; ; François Mitterrand; Noboru Takeshita and Helmut Kohl. Colin McConnell, Photograph Archive, Courtesy of Toronto Public Library

Global 2021: A Saner, Less Fragmented World

Canada has spent the past four years wedged between an Jeremy Kinsman

unrecognizably belligerent United States and an unpro- onald Trump’s exit from the ductively belligerent China. Provided the economic dam- White House wins our dis- age from the COVID lockdown doesn’t produce geopolit- D rupted and divided world another chance to get its collective ical consequences that make 2020 look good, a new US act together to meet existential glob- administration and a fresh appreciation of both democ- al challenges. racy and multilateralism present a new opportunity for Only 20 years ago, Canadian diplo- macy was at the front end of the post- Canadian leadership in 2021. Cold War effort to design and anchor new inclusive norms for internation- al governance. Do we still have the stuff, the will and ability, to be a key player again?

We have a stake in successful interna- tional cooperative outcomes. It needs

Policy 7 robust outreach diplomacy. Cana- We have a stake in successful international da can’t just fall into line behind Joe Biden’s more congenial US leadership cooperative outcomes. It needs robust outreach and hope for the best. diplomacy. Canada can’t just fall into line behind Joe Biden’s more congenial US leadership and hope for the best. The world has vastly changed in 20 years. Optimistic assumptions were crushed by events whose residue still disrupts. The jihadist attacks of Sep- tember 11, 2001 re-cast global pri- orities, fed enduring terrorism, and prompted the long Afghan war and ost countries now impa- serves that “the world order has (so tiently endure an overlong far) endured because it is in every- the disastrous and divisive US/UK and dysfunctional US tran- body’s interest.” But that general in- invasion of Iraq that spewed refu- M sition, anticipating the remedial terest has to be translated into com- gees into Europe. Borders stiffened succession of Joe Biden, a welcome mon purpose, and it doesn’t come and populist nationalism gained multilateralist. easily. Two decades ago, as the dean traction, bolstered by ubiquitous so- of G8 finance ministers, cial networks that polarized publics. But expectation of restoration comes argued convincingly that the world With the encouragement of Russia, with a hedge. Germany, as an im- needed a more inclusive forum to nativist populists vilified globaliza- portant example, had since the war negotiate trade-offs on critical glob- tion and liberal democracy. Mean- viewed the US as its key ally, protec- al challenges. It became the G20. while, China continued its remark- tor, and democratic mentor before But it isn’t working. Notions that a able and inexorable rise in economic Trump turned the privileged relation- democratic G7 enlarged to include stature, shifting the global balance ship into what Germans came to call India, South Korea, and Australia of power, with an increasingly na- the US “catastrophe.” The US repu- would provide a more inclusive but tionalist posture. tation for can-do competence plum- effective forum than either the G7 meted as the world witnessed with a or the G20 begs how to engage Chi- Barack Obama’s election in 2008 had “mixture of concern, disbelief, and na. The increasingly fractious rival- lifted hopes of a reprise of construc- schadenfreude,” a “leaderless Ameri- ry between China and the US for tive internationalism. But the finan- ca slip into a deep pandemic winter,” economic primacy is apt to define cial cataclysm he inherited laid bare per CNN’s Brian Stelter. Chancellor our age. an unfair system that privileged capi- Merkel’s observation that “the times tal over ordinary people’s welfare. we could rely on the US are some- A rare US bipartisan consensus con- what over” won’t now be archived cludes that China has gamed inter- The world’s mood trended to pes- national trade rules, bullies neigh- just because of a close election. simism and identity-based nation- bours, and represses human rights Trump leaves behind a polarized US alism, including in the UK. The US in Xinjiang and Hong Kong. Can- which could reverse direction again. elected as president a disruptive na- ada, other democracies, and Chi- tionalist who wrought carnage on Even though the incoming Biden na’s neighbours agree. Incoming US international cooperation and insti- team is reassuringly experienced, pos- Secretary of State Antony Blinken tutions. Pledging to “no longer sur- itive, and outward-looking, it will face knows the resolution of key global render the country to the false song an obstinate partisan opposition, the issues needs agreement between the of globalism,” Trump tore up foun- overwhelming domestic priority to US and China. He has previewed the dational agreements in the name of manage the pandemic and econom- bilateral relationship as a composite “America first,” upending 75 years of ic recovery, and the many unexpect- of components that are adversarial, US international leadership. ed things that land on the president’s competitive, and also, where possi- desk. US allies share German worries ble, cooperative, recognizing that Just how scorched he left the institu- about the extent to which the new on global warming and the pandem- tional landscape was clear when the administration will have much room ic, China is an essential factor. The increasingly deadlocked G20 met vir- for range and transformative am- US will resist calls to “de-couple” tually on November 21, under the bitions in foreign affairs. So, others western economies from China’s inauspicious rotating chairmanship need to maintain creative momen- and won’t endorse an allied Cold of Trump ally Saudi Arabia. Trump tum to reform and reinforce interna- War “containment” strategy. But mocked hopes of concrete progress tional cooperation. Will Canada be in the Biden administration will move on the agenda, trashing the notion the front rank? warily and firmly. Other countries of global warming, and skipping the need to engage China on multilat- critical session on the global pandem- Princeton University international eral issues. Canada needs a realistic ic to play golf. relations theorist John Ikenberry ob- and open-eyed approach only possi-

January—February 2021 8 ble after resolution of our debilitat- tions of our world. We badly need But crisis response has been excellent, ing hostage dispute. like-minded solidarity groups to gal- notably in procuring PPE, and evacu- vanize institutional reform and pos- ating Canadians during the pandem- Of course, our main bilateral prior- itive outcomes for such essential UN ic. Work to save NAFTA and craft the ity is our critical relationship with activities as peacekeeping, humani- the US. Canada has, in the Biden ad- ground-breaking CETA with the EU tarian aid, poverty, migration, and ministration, a partner on whom we was outstanding. public health, including immedi- can count for civil discussion and ately the COMAX coalition of over negotiation based on shared facts As to our creative 100 countries to assure equitable af- and evidence. But it will be no plea- fordable COVID-19 vaccine distri- policy capacity, the sure cruise: US political themes are bution, in which Canada should be perception in the foreign inward and protection-ish. We need a protagonist. to remain in campaign communi- affairs community is that it cations mode toward all levels of Ottawa has been working with atrophied under recent the US, to temper impulses to “buy like-minded internationalist coun- top-down governments America,” and to lift the US view tries to try to unlock some key mul- centralized in PMOs and of the benefits of the North Ameri- tilateral issues. On trade, the Otta- can partnership. leaders with narrower wa Group initiative of middle-power countries to revive and reform the international aims. ther regions are organizing. World Trade Organization is mak- Asian countries including ing progress. But it will need a wid- O China, Japan and Austra- er buy-in from the great powers. lia, representing one-third of global More broadly, then-Foreign Minis- GDP have created the tariff-cutting ter encouraged the “Regional Comprehensive Economic formation of the Multilateral Alliance We need to revive the creative ca- Partnership.” Canada must succeed in group that brings together Canadian, pacities of the Foreign Service and Asia. Looking ahead, our Comprehen- German, French and other partners re-energize our international public sive Economic and Trade Agreement seeking ways to re-build trust and diplomacy. The world also sees “the with the EU could become the tem- purpose in multilateral fora. One ex- other North America” through inter- plate for a comprehensive North At- emplary success stands out as a mod- acting with multitudes of Canadi- lantic economic partnership between el of international governance—the an scientists, entrepreneurs, scholars the and North Amer- Arctic Council, an innovative, bot- and students, artists, humanitarian ica as an expansion of NAFTA. tom-up consensus-based organiza- workers, military, firefighters, and Canada needs to work every day tion of the eight circumpolar states innumerable family ties. Including abroad to strengthen opportunities and Indigenous peoples that guides public consultation in the policy from a diversity of partnerships, in- the sustainable development and process is essential. cluding to build support for glob- shared custody of the world’s High al multilateral reform. Twenty years North in line with the UN’s interna- The pandemic makes it emphatical- ago, Foreign Minister Lloyd Axwor- tional legal norms. ly clear we are all in the same global thy was the leading protagonist for boat. But it needs fixing to stay afloat. “human security,” a paradigm plac- oe Biden has pledged to convene Canadians are globalists. That repair ing people at the centre of new a summit of democracies to ad- work is rightfully our brand. norms of international behaviour J dress democracy’s global reces- Contributing Writer Jeremy Kinsman and accountability. With like-mind- sion and to restore a better example. ed middle-rank states and interna- It should reaffirm that universal hu- is a former Canadian Ambassador to tional NGOs we formed the Human man rights are democracy’s building Moscow, former Ambassador to the Security Network to design and pro- blocks and our commitment to have European Union, and former High mote landmark initiatives to end the the backs of human rights defenders Commissioner to London. He is a use of anti-personnel land mines, everywhere, consistently. Distinguished Fellow of the Canadian and to establish both a Responsibil- International Council. As to our creative policy capacity, ity to Protect (RTP) to prevent trag- the perception in the foreign affairs edies such as Rwanda and Srebren- community is that it atrophied un- ica, and an International Criminal der recent top-down governments Court to apply principles of univer- centralized in PMOs and leaders sal justice. with narrower international aims, Today the United Nations system focused on signaling our virtues, ab- is bogged down by the fragmenta- sorbed by electoral politics.

Policy 9 How a New Bilateral Bromance Could Enhance Climate Action

There may be no issue that better illustrates the shared ident Joe Biden is as committed to interests of Canada and our nearest neighbour than the climate action as candidate Biden was. need to address climate change. After four years during Biden was a compromise candidate for the Democratic nomination. As which an American president did everything in his power the primary started heating up in ear- to reverse progress on global warming mitigation, Canada ly 2020, climate action emerged as a key issue among Democratic primary now has a partner it can work with. voters and the contenders jockeyed for position. Based in part on his em- brace of the Green New Deal, Bernie Sanders briefly topped the polls and Dan Woynillowicz hicle emission regulations (which are took early leads in the Iowa caucuses, and Eric St. Pierre harmonized between our two coun- where he was edged out by Pete Butt- tries), while others, such as rules to igieg, and in New Hampshire, which reduce potent methane pollution he narrowly won. Meanwhile, Jay Ins- n the days following the Ameri- from the oil and gas sector, bolstered lee, the governor of Washington State, can presidential election, you opposition to regulating pollution in focused his run singularly on climate could sense a weary (and wary) I Canada on the grounds that it would change, laying out the most compre- relief settle in among most Canadi- impact competitiveness. hensive climate platform conceivable. ans. It had been a challenging four Kamala Harris laid out a $10 trillion years, to put it mildly, and now there climate plan and played up her creden- was at least one reason to look for- Biden was a tials as a prosecutor who would target ward with some optimism. This sen- big polluters. timent was even more acute among compromise those Canadians concerned about cli- candidate for the Democratic Meanwhile Biden, the establish- mate change; there was even a sense nomination. As the primary ment candidate and frontrunner, laid of ebullience among those of us work- out a moderate approach to climate ing to advance climate solutions. started heating up in early change that was broadly perceived as 2020, climate action a potential drag on his candidacy. Simply put, Donald Trump’s presiden- emerged as a key issue cy had been a train wreck for federal But as the primaries wore on, it be- climate policy in the US, with the de- among Democratic primary came clear that climate change bris field sprawling northward into voters and the contenders wasn’t just going to be a significant Canada. Trump had his team scour- jockeyed for position. issue for the Democratic base. Opin- ing for any and every opportunity to ion research published in April by the roll back and weaken environmental Yale Program on Climate Communi- regulations. The result? According to cation, part of an ongoing study of a New York Times analysis, informed views on climate change dating back by research from Harvard Law School, to 2008, found a significant shift in Columbia Law School and other public opinion: “Today, the Alarmed With the arrival of a US administra- sources, the Trump administration re- (26 percent) outnumber the Dismis- tion that not only accepts the myriad versed, revoked and rolled back more sive (7 percent) nearly 4 to 1. In 2014, threats posed by a changing climate— than 80 environmental rules and reg- they were tied at 1 to 1. That’s a ma- to health, the environment, the econ- ulations, and 20 rollbacks were still in jor shift in the political, social and omy, and security—but aspires to find progress as of November. cultural climate of climate change.” opportunity in addressing them, Can- Some of those had a direct impact on ada once again has an ally and part- Similarly, research in May target- Canada, such as the weakening of ve- ner. Presuming, of course, that Pres- ing “persuadable voters” conducted

January—February 2021 Data from 11 national surveys (N=13,609) from March 2015 to April 2020. Sources: Yale program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University Centre for Climate Change Communication

10 Global Warming’s Six Americas: Five-Year Trend diplomacy and set the US economy on a trajectory to achieve net zero 100% emissions by 2050. Dismissive ▼ 5 pts 7% 12% Polling commissioned by the New York Times just weeks before the vote Doubtful ▼ 3 pts 11% 15% seemed to prove-out the thesis that climate action could be a vote-win- Disengaged ▼ 1 pts 7% ner: 66 percent of respondents were 8% supportive of Biden’s $2 trillion cli- Cautious ▼ 4 pts 20% mate plan. In the weeks following the election, it became clear that 24% young Americans had cast ballots in 50% record numbers, playing a key role in handing a victory to Joe Biden, 28% with early research suggesting cli- Concerned ▼ 2 pts mate change concerns were a major driver of this turnout. 30% As President-elect Biden began the transition process, it was abundant- ly clear he had won a clear climate 26% Alarmed ▲ 15 pts mandate—and high expectations to 11% go with it. 0% 2015 2020 n the midst of the election the Biden campaign had signalled I its interest in appointing a “cli- Data from 11 national surveys (N=13,609) from March 2015 to April 2020. mate czar” who would drive climate Sources: Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and George Mason University Centre action from the White House. Expe- for Climate Change Communication rience from the Obama administra- tion informed the Biden team of this imperative, and so Obama alumni by the Global Strategy Group found bite he would repeat numerous times teamed up with academic experts and throughout the campaign: “When I that, contrary to previous elections, former government officials to provide climate change was not a liability but hear the words ‘climate change’ I hear Biden’s transition team with advice an advantage among swing voters. another word: ‘jobs.’ We can solve our on how to deliver on his climate agen- While not necessarily a top issue for climate crisis and our economic crisis da using every department and agen- all voters, it was found to be just that at the same time.” It was a position cy. Unconventionally but wisely, the for the voters Biden would need to that echoed the approach to the post- Climate 21 Project shied away from win over in November: young people 2008 financial crash recovery, when prescribing policy advice and instead and persuadable Trump voters. Biden, as Barack Obama’s vice presi- focused on delivering “actionable ad- dent, oversaw a recovery program that vice for a rapid-start, whole-of-govern- As it became clear that Biden would combined economic stimulus with ment climate response coordinated by be the Democratic nominee, he clean energy innovation. the White House and accountable to struck a Unity Task Force. Co-chaired the president,” including memos with by former Senator and Secretary Biden’s platform included two key planks that wove together his cli- recommendations for 11 White House of State John Kerry and Congress- offices, federal departments, and fed- mate, energy and economic ambi- woman Alexandra Ocasio-Cortez, it eral agencies, as well as cross-cut- tions into a plan for a clean energy merged climate action recommenda- ting recommendations on personnel revolution, environmental justice, tions from leading House and Senate and hiring. Democrats, Biden’s primary platform, modern sustainable infrastructure and a cross-section of civil society cli- and an equitable, clean-energy fu- Appointments to date suggest that mate change and environmental jus- ture. With a federal commitment of President-elect Biden got the message: tice advocates, to inform Biden’s plat- $2 trillion over four years, Biden laid John Kerry, who helped forge the Par- form for the general election. out a vision and numerous goals, is Agreement, has been appointed spe- plans and programs to undo Trump’s cial presidential envoy for climate— This approach united his base, expand- regulatory rollback spree, re-engage now a cabinet-level appointment with ed his appeal, and informed a sound- Washington in international climate a seat on the National Security Coun-

Policy 11 cil—and asked to help raise global am- It was Vice President Biden who visited Canada in bition for action. Brian Deese, a bril- liant former climate aide to President the waning days of the Obama administration to Obama, has been tapped to lead the urge Trudeau to take up Obama’s progressive torch and National Economic Council. And Jan- there is significant alignment between the two leaders’ et Yellen, who was chair of the Fed- climate plans. eral Reserve under President Obama, has been nominated Treasury Secre- tary, hot on the heels of a stint with former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor and current UN en- tech sector that punches above its mandates to take action to address the voy on climate finance Mark Carney weight and whose growth will be fu- climate crisis. They also now share leading the Group of 30, a think tank eled by exports to, among other plac- the challenge of doing so within the of former and current policy makers, es, the US. context of pandemic-ravaged econo- academics and finance executives ex- mies, and, despite majority support, Domestic pipeline politics in general, ploring how best to shift the global polarized electorates and regional di- and Keystone XL in particular, mean economy toward net zero emissions. visions on matters of climate and en- that the federal government will need It’s clear that Biden means business. ergy policy. to be seen to champion it with Biden, t first blush, all of this is won- despite his commitment to rescind Prime Minister Trudeau appears derful news for Canada and permits and cancel the project. But primed to this potential. His govern- our climate ambitions, for the from both a diplomatic and practical ment’s strengthened climate plan, re- A leased in December on the five-year federal government especially. There’s perspective, it should hardly be “top some hope that the brief 2015-2017 of the agenda,” as Foreign Affairs Min- anniversary of the Paris Agreement, bromance enjoyed by Prime Minister ister François-Philippe Champagne noted “there is an opportunity to Justin Trudeau and President Barack has vowed it would be. collaborate with the incoming Unit- ed States Administration on strong Obama could be rekindled with Presi- But we simply can’t afford to get cross-border climate action that can dent Biden. After all, it was Vice Presi- mired in a divisive, and now mostly dent Biden who visited Canada in the better position the North American symbolic, debate about pipelines. The economy, as well as Canadian workers waning days of the Obama admin- economic and political winds have istration to urge Trudeau to take up and companies so that they can con- shifted, and clean energy collabora- tinue to be globally competitive.” Obama’s progressive torch and there tion and effective climate action must is significant alignment between the be the top priority. While seizing this opportunity, and two leaders’ climate plans. tackling this challenge, are better There is, after all, precedent for doing done in collaboration than isolation, But while there is undoubtedly plen- so. In June 2016, President Obama, ty of scope for collaboration, there are the reality is that while President-elect Prime Minister Trudeau and Mexican Biden will be a much stronger ally for also some warning signs that require President Enrique Peña Nieto estab- prompt prioritization by the Trudeau Canada than Trump was, his first pri- lished the North American Climate, government. All of those climate-ac- ority will be Americans and the Amer- Clean Energy, and Environment Part- tion induced jobs and economic ben- ican economy. Canada has managed nership. But by November 2016 Don- efits Biden promised? He wants them to carve out exceptions and partner- ald Trump was President-elect, and in the US. From zero-emission ve- ships to our advantage in the past, the partnership was effectively dead. hicle manufacturing to producing and the imperative is that Prime Min- the batteries that go in them, to ad- While it needs to be updated—to re- ister Trudeau do so again—for our en- vanced biofuels and clean-tech solu- flect the heightened ambition of new vironment and our economy. tions, Biden has “Buy American” on net zero targets and new opportuni- Dan Woynillowicz is the Principal his mind. ties to develop North American sup- of Polaris Strategy + Insight, a ply chains for batteries, zero emission public policy consulting firm focused Last fall, Canada landed commitments vehicles and other clean technolo- on climate change and the energy from Ford and Fiat Chrysler Automo- gies—and may not necessarily include transition. biles to re-tool their Canadian assem- Mexico this time around, this collabo- Eric St. Pierre is the Executive Director bly plants to produce electric vehicles rative approach could be coupled with of the Trottier Family Foundation, for the Canadian and American mar- a commitment to keeping the borders which supports organizations that kets alike. We have the ability to pro- open to free-flowing trade. work towards the advancement of duce and export a surplus of clean, re- scientific inquiry, the promotion of newable power that can help the US For the first time ever, we have feder- education, fostering better health, achieve its 2035 decarbonization goal. al leaders in Ottawa and Washington, protecting the environment and And we’re home to a growing clean DC who have been elected with clear mitigating climate change.

January—February 2021 12 Fiscal Policy and the Post- COVID Recovery

Governments around the world, including Canada’s, have Fiscal policy is the use of govern- ment spending and revenues to pro- spent nearly a year re-orienting their fiscal calculations mote growth and the provision of around the health and economic Catch-22 of a deadly pan- common goods. Economic channels demic that could only be contained by a self-induced eco- include the allocation of resources, income distribution, savings and in- nomic coma. As COVID-19 vaccines begin to make their vestment and aggregate demand. way into the bloodstreams of Canadians, the economic re- Fiscal policy can be used to stabilize an unstable economy through built- covery could still take many shapes, writes former Parlia- in stabilizers (e.g., unemployment mentary Budget Officer and Institute of Fiscal Studies and benefits; progressive tax systems) Democracy founder Kevin Page. and stimulus measures (i.e., defi- cit financed measures to strengthen demand). Fiscal policy was an im- portant stabilizing influence in the Kevin Page The International Monetary Fund 2008-09 global financial crisis. (IMF) is calling for a global coordina- istorians debate key turn- tion of fiscal policy and continued. overnment capacity to use ing points in history— Pax Continued monetary and fiscal poli- fiscal policy as an economic Romana; the birth of spiri- H cy support to help vulnerable people stabilizer depends on its fis- tual leaders like Jesus and Moham- G cal room. The reduction in feder- med; the invention of the printing and businesses while the pandemic al debt in Canada from 66 percent press; the renaissance; and many evolves—avoiding premature with- of GDP in 1995-96 to 28 percent of more. Will the 2020 global pandemic drawal. A synchronized global infra- GDP in 2007-08 (corresponding re- mark an inflection point, the begin- structure investment push to support duction in public debt charges from ning of a special moment in human growth, limit recession after-effects 5.9 to 1.7 percent) gave the federal history? Can global leaders imagine (i.e., so-called scarring) and address much needed a new future? Can countries, public climate goals. “‘Build back better”’ is fiscal space to support the Canadian and private sectors and citizens work now a global motto. economy in both the 2008-9 finan- together to address challenges and opportunities? Chart 1: Federal Debt and Interest Charges (% of GDP) The year 2020 started with the spread of the COVID-19 virus around the 70 7 world. It has ended with the roll-out 60 6 of vaccines. The pandemic has tak- en its toll on human lives—1.6 mil- 50 5 lion deaths globally; 13,000 deaths 40 4 in Canada. In the Dave Matthew’s song “Space Between”, the singer/ 30 3 songwriter makes the case that life is 20 2 about bridging the gaps that lie be- tween people. The cooperation of 10 1 international pharmaceutical efforts 0 0 6 has highlighted the power of collab- 2

oration bridging gaps. Policymak- 1- 1 971-72 975-76 979-80 983-84 987-88 991-92 999-00 967-68 995-96 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2023-24 2025-26 20 1 2015- 1

ers are now coalescing on agendas 2003-04 2007-08 2019-20 focused on sustainability, inclusion Federal Debt (left axis) Public Debt Charges (right axis) and resilience. Source: Department of Finance Fiscal Reference Tables; 2020 Fall Economic Statement

Policy 13 cial crisis and the 2020 pandemic. three objectives: infection fighting; tors are seen to influence the effec- The fiscal advantage was supported disaster relief; and support for aggre- tiveness of stimulus. These include by a AAA bond rating (i.e., highest gate demand. the economic context, and the tim- investment grade) from the major ing, size, composition and duration agencies. ow much fiscal stimulus will of the fiscal stimulus. be needed to support de- Canada unloaded fiscal firepower to In the 2020 Fall Economic Statement, mand in a post-pandemic support Canadian households and H the government indicated an inten- economy is an open question. Cana- businesses to facilitate social distanc- tion to use fiscal stimulus to strength- dian national accounts numbers for ing and slow the spread of the virus. en the post COVID-19 recovery. the first three quarters of 2020 show a Direct fiscal supports in 2020-21 are Different economic scenarios were pre- deep dive, a strong bounce and an in- estimated at $275 billion (12.5 per- crease in savings. Blanchard’s advice sented with stimulus values ranging in cent of GDP). Total federal-provin- is for governments to be ready but the $70 billion to $100 billion range cial-territorial multi-year supports should not commit to a specific level over a three-year period starting in including tax payment deferrals and of fiscal expansion before the outlook 2021. As well, the government indicat- credit supports are estimated near becomes clearer. ed intention to use labour market indi- $600 billion. cators—employment rate, unemploy- There are downside and upside eco- ment, hours worked—as guardrails to How does the federal budgetary defi- nomic risks around the post-pandem- guide the shape of fiscal stimulus. cit go from $39.4 billion (1.7 percent ic economic recovery. The key driver of GDP) in 2019-20 to $381.6 billion remains the evolution of the virus. A One of my favourite holiday movies in 2020-21 (17.5 percent of GDP)? U-shaped recovery for GDP is linked is “Planes, Trains and Automobiles”’. Start with $381.6 billion. Take away to struggles controlling the virus and In the 1987 film, the principal char- $275 billion in direct fiscal supports. the cumulative impact of scarring on acters, including Jim Neal (played Take away a $76 billion drop in bud- jobs and investment. A Z-shaped re- by Steve Martin) and Del Griffith getary revenue from the Budget 2019 covery is linked to successful global (played by the late Canadian icon projection because of a deep reces- vaccination and the release of pent John Candy), struggle to get home sion. We are left with a deficit of $31 up consumer demand highlighted by for the holidays. By comparison, our billion—a number that would not recent increases in savings and the re- new Finance Minister Chrystia Free- raise eyebrows in financial markets in turn of investor confidence. land and newly named Deputy Min- normal times. International research on the poten- ister Michael Sabia will spend the Olivier Blanchard, a former Chief tial impacts of fiscal stimulus has in- holidays trying to get Canada back Economist at the International Mon- creased significantly since the 2008 to fiscal normalcy. The Finance mov- etary Fund, makes the case that fiscal financial crisis and introduction of ie would be more akin to “Fiscal An- policy during the COVID19 crisis has record-low interest rates. Many fac- chors, Guardrails and Rules”.

Table 1: Fall Economic Statement 2020 ($ billions)

PROJECTION 2019-2020 2020-2021 2021-2022 2022-2023 2023-2024 2024-2025 2025-2026 Budgetary revenues 334.1 275.4 335.9 357.8 377.3 398.5 417.3 Total expenses, ex net actuarial losses 362.9 641.6 441.5 396.4 410.1 423.4 438.4 Net actuarial losses -10.6 -15.4 -15.6 -12.1 -10.5 -6.0 -3.9 Budgetary Balance before stimulus -39.4 -381.6 -121.2 -50.7 -43.3 -30.9 -24.9 Planned stimulus $70 – to – $100 billion over 3 years Federal debt before planned stimulus 721.4 1,107.4 1,228.5 1,279.3 1,322.6 1,353.4 1,378.3 Percent of GDP before planned stimulus Budgetary Revenues 14.5 12.6 14.4 14.6 14.7 14.9 15.0 Program expenses 14.6 28.5 18.1 15.2 15.0 14.7 14.5 Public debt charges 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 Budgetary balance -1.7 -17.5 -5.2 -2.1 -1.7 -1.2 -0.9 Federal debt 31.2 50.7 52.6 52.1 51.6 50.6 49.6

Source: Department of Finance, 2020 Fall Economic Statement

January—February 2021 14 Chart 2: Debt-to-GDP Ratio Under Discretionary Spending Alternative Scenarios

W NTRST RATS HGHR NTRST RATS 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 2030-31 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30 2030-31 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 2024-25 2025-26 2026-27 2027-28 2028-29 2029-30

Baseline 1 Spending 3 Spending 4.5 Spending 4.5 Spending 5 Revenue

Source: IFSD calculations

There is a genuine intellectual debate face of aging demographics. On the have a permanent impact on around fiscal discipline in a post-pan- other hand, provinces are not sus- deficits. Fiscal analysis should demic environment. tainable, largely because of assump- accompany the setting of fiscal On the one side, some argue that in tions regarding health care spending guardrails (e.g., estimates of the a low-interest rate environment there growth. output gap, cyclically-adjusted budget balances, spending and is a “‘get of jail free” card for running It is said that discipline is about tax multipliers) up large debt to support households knowing what needs to be done, and businesses during a lockdown to even if you do not want to do it. Can- c Long fiscal sustainability protect and support growth. Debt-to- ada will need a fiscal planning frame- analysis should be tabled with GDP should fall with primary budget work with discipline or risk passing the budget. balances and interest rates lower than on higher unnecessary debt to future 2 Set a fiscal anchor. It should be a the growth in the economy. generations; not being able to sup- prudent level of debt relative to port Canadians in the next recession; On the other side, some argue that income. higher debt will eventually be paid by and potentially losing a hard-earned 3 Set fiscal rules. These are higher taxes. They argue it is voodoo AAA credit rating. operational targets consistent economics to assume interest rates There is lots of good advice on fiscal with the fiscal anchor including will stay low for long and that public discipline from international organi- primary balances (program investment will pay for itself. High- zations. Are we able to implement it? spending, less revenues); er debt will limit fiscal room for fu- discretionary spending growth; ture generations and create economic 1 Outline a fiscal strategy. How will and public debt interest charges as instability risks. Fiscal consolidations fiscal policy be used to support a percent of GDP. are costly—a lesson learned in Cana- economic recovery and long-term da in the 1990s. structural policy shifts (e.g. climate 4 Establish escape clauses. change)? How will corrective Fiscal policy needs to adjust if Finance scenarios and work by IFSD fiscal measures (e.g. spending assumptions are substantially suggest Canada is headed for a much restraints and tax increases) be altered. higher debt-to-GDP ratio over the introduced over the medium-term 5 Use the Parliamentary Budget medium term—likely in the 50 to as economic conditions improve. 55 percent range. This is well above Office to provide support for the 30 percent debt-GDP ratio in the a Investment spending should Parliament on the enforceability pre-pandemic period. On a positive be defined. Non-investment of the fiscal anchors, guardrails

note, these debt numbers are well initiatives should not be deficit- and rules. financed in a post pandemic below debt loads of most advanced Contributing Writer Kevin Page is the period. countries. PBO analysis suggests this founding President and CEO of the level of federal debt with the current b If fiscal stimulus is required, Institute for Fiscal Studies and fiscal structure (i.e., before initiatives a performance framework Democracy at highlighted in the 2020 Speech from should be established. Stimulus and was previously Canada’s first the Throne) could be sustainable in programming should not Parliamentary Budget Officer.

Policy 15 Can the Delivery of COVID-19 Vaccines Match the Speed of their Discovery?

While it may be little consolation to those who’ve lost taking place, companies were build- ing global production capacity for bil- loved ones to the COVID-19 pandemic, one positive out- lions of vaccines. Never has the world come of the crisis has been the stunning pace at which witnessed such an abundant scientific the immunization process—from sequencing the virus harvest on so many fronts in such a short period of time. to vaccine discovery to delivery—has been telescoped by health and economic urgency. Dr. Tim Evans, the Exec- hile there are countless utive Director of Canada’s COVID-19 Immunity Task factors explaining this W yield, a few deserve par- Force, explains. ticular attention. First, the complete genetic sequencing of the SARS- CoV-2 virus and its placement in the public domain within 2 weeks of the outbreak allowed interested parties, suit, approving the same vaccine this Dr. Tim Evans globally, to begin working immedi- week, with a quarter of a million dos- ately on vaccine development. One n the May 2020 issue of Policy, es scheduled for delivery by year-end. would be hard pressed to imagine a two months into the global pan- Incredibly, the revving up of vaccine stronger endorsement of the value of demic of COVID-19, I outlined discovery and production has land- I open science. As Jeremy Farrar, head several areas of focus to strengthen ed us with a 2021 public health chal- of the Wellcome Trust in London Canada’s pandemic response. These lenge like no other in history: how tweeted “(this is a)…really important included: scaled-up testing; procure- can COVID-19 vaccines be delivered moment in global public health.” ment of critical materials; the safe- to the majority of the world’s 7.5 bil- ty of care workers; attention to hot lion people? Second, the novel approach common spots like long-term care; and in- to both of the Pfizer/BioNTech and The story of how we arrived at this vesting in accelerated development Moderna vaccines emerges from de- grand challenge on vaccine delivery of new technologies like vaccines. cades of research on messenger RNA deserves some reflection. As we enter With indications the first wave was (mRNA). The results from the late- the COVID-19 vaccine era, it is im- on the wane, there was optimism phase trials showing up to 95 percent portant to note just how meteoric and these measures would flatten the success in preventing infection are unprecedented their development has curve and accelerate the re-opening rarely seen in vaccine development been. In the first 12 months of the of the economy. Now, in the midst and the 50 percent threshold of regu- pandemic, 12 vaccines have made it of a much-bigger-than-expected sec- latory bodies. Together with very good to Phase III clinical trials, the final ond wave and with a return to lock- safety profiles, this breakthrough ap- stage of evaluation prior to regulato- downs, it is clear these countermea- proach holds boundless promise for ry approval. This contrasts with the sures have fallen short. The singular application to other infections. normal industry standard of 10 years exception relates to vaccine develop- for getting a single vaccine to Phase Third, government treasuries took ment, where rapid progress is raising III clinical trials. Within a year of the unprecedented risks in backing vac- hopes amid wider despair. outbreak, three vaccine candidates are cine development with multi-billion The world celebrated news of the likely to receive regulatory approval, dollar subsidies. In the face of the first recipients of the Pfizer/BioN- two of which have pioneered a novel multi-trillion dollar cost of COVID-19 tech vaccine in the approach to vaccination (via messen- to the global economy, these subsi- just one week after its regulatory ap- ger RNA, or mRNA). Moreover, as this dies represented an overwhelmingly proval. Health Canada has followed accelerated vaccine development was positive return on investment. Smart

January—February 2021 16 and scaled public financing not only With politicians eschewing manda- the delegated responsibility of health removed financial barriers to vaccine vaccination, this choice boils to provinces/territories, there is no research and development, but also down to persuading and enabling such unified system in Canada. In- guaranteed, through advance pur- those whose lives are on the line “to stead, monitoring vaccine safety and chase agreements, global production get in line” for vaccines. While sur- effectiveness across the country will capacity for billions of vaccines well veys suggest about two thirds of Ca- require aggregating across P/T sys- before their regulatory approval. nadians are willing to get in line, tems and pulling together a diverse vaccine hesitancy—the reluctance The manufacturing at scale of un- array of purpose-built networks— or refusal to be vaccinated—is wide- proven vaccines is unprecedented. largely found within the Canadian spread enough to require pro-active The Canadian government negotiat- management. Hesitancy is actively Immunization Research Network. ed these purchase agreements with fueled by anti-vaccine crusaders who Repurposing, aligning and mobiliz- seven vaccine manufacturers, guar- are rampant on social media. More- ing this patchwork vaccine surveil- anteeing procurement of more than over, for informed and misinformed lance system to match the speed and 200 million vaccine doses for Canadi- publics alike, hesitancy is refracto- scale of the vaccine roll-out is a tall ans. These agreements will ensure an ry to old-style public health messag- order but must garner the requisite adequate market share of COVID-19 ing of “these are the facts” or “don’t political and technical attention to vaccines for Canadians in a competi- listen to them”. Tailored communi- sustain vaccine confidence. tive global market. Further, over-pro- cation engaging diverse communi- curement hedges the risk that some ties with trusted agents deploying an The delivery challenge, however, of these vaccines will not meet regu- array of media is the way forward. goes well beyond securing public latory standards. However, generating these strategies confidence in vaccine safety and ef- Now comes the challenge of figur- rapidly and deploying them at scale fectiveness. COVID-19 vaccines are ing out how to vaccinate the major- requires tapping the best strategic unlikely to have a significant im- ity of Canadians as quickly as possi- communications minds, social media pact on the trendline of SARS-CoV-2 ble. The government of Canada has and community micro-influencers all cases and deaths for at least sever- set the ambitious targets of vaccinat- at the same time. al months after roll-out begins. As ing three million Canadians by March such, good public behaviors such as 2021 and the rest of Canadians by the eyond effective communication physical distancing and mask wear- end of the 2021. This 12-month deliv- and engagement strategies, the ing will need to be sustained in or- choice to be vaccinated relies ery challenge is no less daunting than B der to counter expectations that im- discovering and producing COVID-19 on an individual’s confidence that munization permits an immediate vaccines at scale within a year. a vaccine is safe and effective. Even return to “normal life”. Without ac- with rigorous regulatory approv- Encouragingly, the Public Health al, safety and effectiveness remain tive management of these expecta- Agency of Canada has just issued an ongoing concern as vaccines roll tions with clear data, new COVID-19 a COVID-19 immunization plan. out. The early reports of allergic reac- cases during the roll-out may be mis- Grounded in clear principles with tions to the vaccine in the UK under- interpreted as a failure of vaccines. multi-jurisdictional engagement, the line the imperative for ongoing vigi- As we look forward to the COVID-19 plan identifies seven action elements lance. Many questions require further New Year, therefore, the response with the overall objective of enabling study. For example, how long will rapid immunization of Canadians vaccine protection last? Does vacci- must not only seize the opportunity with priority to high-risk populations. nating persons previously infected of vaccine delivery but also surmount Several of these elements are already with COVID-19 pose any risks? Does the second wave! On both of these well underway, such as procurement vaccination prevent transmission of fronts, the battle’s most valuable re- arrangements for vaccines and their infection? And what about subgroups source will remain an informed and regulatory approval, and the prioriti- like infirm elderly, children and preg- engaged public supported to make zation of the elderly and care workers nant women on whom the vaccines the best choices for their own and the as the first to receive the vaccines. The have not been tested? nation’s health. recent announcement of “Operation Vector”, enlists the military through Answering these and other questions Dr. Tim Grant Evans is the Executive a National Operations Centre to en- central to vaccine safety and efficacy Director of the COVID-19 Immunity sure timely and efficient distribution requires a fit-for-purpose vaccine sur- Task Force and Director and Associate of vaccines to the provincial-territo- veillance system. Ideally, a pan-Ca- Dean of the School of Population and rial front lines. All of these elements nadian vaccine registry in which ev- Global Health at McGill University. to strengthen the delivery of vaccines ery person vaccinated is followed-up He is former Senior Director, Health, hinge on the choice of individual Ca- over time would provide the best and Nutrition & Population at the nadians to take them. simplest system. Unfortunately, with World Bank.

Policy 17

Prime Minister Justin Trudeau with the media under cover of an open air tent at the PM’s residence at Rideau Cottage, for months the main venue of news announcements on the pandemic. What will 2021 bring? In a world of social distancing and virtual campaigning, perhaps more of the same, plus vaccine news and updates. Adam Scotti photo An End to the Annus Horribilis? Team Trudeau’s Year Ahead

Among the oddities of a pandemic combined with a lock- John Delacourt down is that the most indelible image of the year 2020 he year 2020 has been defined in Canadian history will be of a young-ish prime minister for Canada’s Liberal minority with a salt-and-pepper beard standing in front of a Victori- T government by variations on tragedy and crisis response. As a an house in Ottawa, addressing his fellow citizens through high-ranking Conservative put it to the lens of a television camera. How that inextricable asso- me, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau ciation with deadliest, costliest crisis ever to hit the world has earned the grey in his beard. How many ways can events converge to in peacetime will play out in Justin Trudeau’s political for- break the spirit of a country? Air trag- tunes will depend on may factors, writes veteran Liberal edy, mass murder in a small commu- strategist and H+K Vice President John Delacourt. nity, the insistent drumbeat of our most vulnerable claimed by a raging pandemic? It’s a checklist from hell.

More to the point, from how many fronts can the Liberal government’s mettle be tested? Let’s add the

January—February 2021 18 threats of a refreshed Conservative Election readiness activities—the selection of brand with a new leader, the slow- drip depletion of the Liberals’ hard- candidates, fundraising and even a little virtual won political capital with the WE meet-and-greeting—continue apace but more as contingency charity controversy and, oh yes, the planning. There is much more work ahead on what’s keeping departure of a finance minister be- many potential Liberal voters up at night. fore any kind of budget could be- gin to be drafted. If the plot points were formulated by a fiction writer, one would say the 2020 narrative for the Liberals had an over-determined tragic arc. or blockades, but that’s so last centu- are currently sketching out will as- Except the real arc was a curve of ry now. The country is under attack suredly emphasize these as priorities. COVID-19 cases that rose in the third and a few days lost to crisis misman- act of this year with surprising mo- agement means thousands of lives o, with all of this in mind, 2021 mentum. When emailing anyone are suddenly at risk. is unlikely to bring any surpris- inside Trudeau’s government about es in terms of policy announce- So, it may be no surprise that, given S what the year ahead might look like, ments; day-to-day crisis management where the focus is, talk of confidence you were likely to read a response like contains as much of the unpredict- votes in the House and a possible “2021? Let’s talk about next week in- able as anyone can bear right now. stead. Or better yet tomorrow.” In all spring election can seem like consid- seriousness. Because serious is not a erations currently in the periphery. What Finance Minister Chrystia Free- mood, it’s room tone now. And that’s Election readiness activities—the se- land is likely to affirm, whether an not likely to change anytime soon. lection of candidates, fundraising election is in the offing or not, is that and even a little virtual meet-and- there can be no recovery that doesn’t This despite the prospect of some- greeting—continue apace but more put the health and wellbeing of Ca- thing like crisis resolution with the as contingency planning. There is nadians first above all thoughts of long-awaited distribution of COVID much more work ahead on what’s opening up the economy once again. vaccines. All talk of decision points keeping many potential Liberal vot- She remains poised to defend this ap- and what can be expected for the ers up at night. The vision for eco- proach from the Conservatives’ at- year ahead—the budget, the like- nomic recovery first signaled in the tacks in the House, which center on ly election—is, for the time being, Speech from the Throne acknowl- how open-ended deficit spending subsumed by the massive logistical edged that the pandemic had pulled continues to be. undertaking required over the next the curtain back on some troubling Will this approach bring the Liber- few months. systemic inequities. Building back als back in power? Perhaps it is ow- better for the Liberals means that ing to a state of collective exhaustion, his major mobilization is be- advancements in national phar- but there is a blasé tone that sets in ing aptly compared to a war macare, affordable housing and when you talk of the next election effort, and not simply because clean technologies—the policies first T campaign with anyone who’ll have to it is being led by a former NATO com- introduced with the 2019 campaign take the Liberal vision on the road (or mander in Iraq, Major General Dany platform—will remain in the fore- on the Zoom tour, coming to a com- Fortin, with a staff of 28 seasoned ground. But there is a new urgency puter screen in front of you). It’s the planners of ground operations in in- in responding to the social injustices new legacy of crisis response; a gov- ternational hot zones. The official that a summer of Black Lives Mat- ernment that has, but for a brief in- line is that this is a “whole of nation” ter protests gave voice to with the terlude in the summer months, been approach to preparing for the known gravity of a persistent injustice that constantly communicating, announc- unknowns, and so much of it is fur- knows no borders in North America. ing stimulus measures rolled out in re- ther complicated by the unique fac- The continuing work of reconcilia- cord time, then extending, adapting tors of COVID vaccine production, tion with First Nations is another vi- and expanding upon all the support it storage and distribution that will tal component of this renewed com- initially put in place. So much of any weigh heavier on resources and time- mitment to historical redress. To add nascent campaign platform feels like lines in, say, Nunavut than it will in to this, the two glaring challenges it’s already been put through its paces downtown Ottawa, where Fortin’s for governments the pandemic has in the scrums from the Prime Minis- team is based. Calling in the military amplified are the struggles with ade- ter’s front yard each day. was once viewed as an admission of quate childcare and seniors care that planning or negotiation failure in the many Canadian families are facing. And with many of the commitments face of emergency, be it snowstorms Any campaign platform the Liberals to prop up struggling businesses,

Policy 19 and a firm hand on national self-in- terest. A seasoned diplomat in the White House bodes well for conge- nial relations and new partnerships in the coming months.

Trudeau’s team can be forgiven a little confidence—even when it’s easily spun as arrogance by an Opposition restive for a campaign—for saying ‘bring on the budget vote, there’s a lot of work to be done to get the country back on its feet’.

Vice President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau have a private stroll down the corridor of the National Art Gallery in Ottawa in late 2016, only weeks before the Obama administration left office. The next time Biden visits Ottawa it will be as President of the United States. Adam Scotti photo And so, even with the prospect of an election in the spring, the Liber- als can console themselves that 2021 there have simply been fewer options ered normal; Biden is unlikely to dis- will at least be more predictable, and to consider, too. Take, for example, avow some of the policies that could their messaging has been tested every the restaurant sector. When a report be considered economically national- day for much of a year. What is a six- from the Canadian Chamber of Com- ist, given how acutely economic de- week battle after you’ve just waged a merce states that as many as 60 per- cline continues to afflict the rust belt twelve-month war? Trudeau’s team cent of them will be out of business states, not to mention the states that can be forgiven a little confidence— by the end of the year, what govern- are the major agricultural producers. even when it’s easily spun as arro- ment, be it Conservative or Liberal, But as one senior Liberal adviser put gance by an Opposition restive for a would not be compelled to act, taking it to me, there will be a coherence, a campaign—for saying “bring on the on some more debt so those business consistency, something close to pre- budget vote, there’s a lot of work to owners will not have to? Perhaps the dictability in trade relations. There be done to get the country back on its wartime analogy obtains once again; will be known unknowns to contend feet”. And if the provincial elections who would want to campaign against with once again. in New Brunswick and British Co- the most aggressive measures possi- lumbia are any indication, attempts ble taken against an enemy threaten- An American president who believes to politicize those efforts at economic ing a way of life? in the value of multilateralism and recovery by forcing Canadians to the diplomacy also bodes well for an al- polls may be met with a stronger re- liance to combat the worst effects of hen the smoke on the buke than the Opposition imagined. illiberal populism, be it found in for- health and economic bat- mer Soviet satellite nations, India, So, Liberals, going into 2021, can le- tlefield clears, the Liber- W Latin America or China. And this gitimately take stock and be hopeful. als will shift focus to non-pandemic too gives this Liberal government Not only that the worst has passed but relations beyond our borders, where cause to hope that the coarsening that they may even aspire to a strong an imminent Joe Biden presidency of foreign policy may no longer be showing in the House after the votes shares some features with the advent trending for the worst. The new geo- are counted in the next election. of available vaccines. politics may ultimately be about dig- Contributing Writer John Delacourt, Biden’s inauguration will mark the ital infrastructures, defined by their Vice President and Group Leader of Hill conclusion of the most volatile phase standards of cybersecurity and reg- & Knowlton public affairs in Ottawa, is ever of bilateral issues management. ulatory environments, but much of a former director of communications for There are no guarantees that things this dialogue will require the oldest the Liberal research bureau. He is also will return to what was once consid- tools of diplomacy: an open mind the author of three novels.

January—February 2021 20

Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole needs a united party for a busy year ahead. André Forget, CPC photo Erin O’Toole’s 2021 To-Do List: Broaden the Base

While Canadians may not have greeted Erin O’Toole’s Geoff Norquay August election as leader of the federal Conservative and Yaroslav Baran

Party with an outpouring of Erinmania, they did have a t is a truism of electoral politics few other things on their minds. Since then, O’Toole has in Canada’s four-party system been defining himself as an alternative to Justin Trudeau I that governments get elected when they reach the 36 to 38 percent in anticipation of an election that could come any time. threshold in the popular vote. With Two of the shrewdest Conservative strategists in Cana- the Liberals lately averaging roughly 36 per cent in support, the Conserva- da, Earnscliffe’s Geoff Norquay and Yaroslav Baran, lay tives constantly at around a third of out the perils and potential for O’Toole as the new year the vote and the NDP at 17 percent— dawns. give or take a point or two—elections are, more often than not, decided by which party has the more “gettable votes” or room to grow in the mar- gins beyond those bases.

These prevailing trends in popular support usually leave the Conser-

Policy 21 vatives with two choices: hope and Canada could well be in an election shortly after the pray for a strong NDP to siphon cen- tre/left votes away from the Liberals, spring budget, either because the Liberals want one, or expand their base. Newly elected or the opposition parties see the opportunity of electoral Conservative Leader Erin O’Toole is gains at the Liberals’ expense. beginning to address this perennial challenge through a series of initia- tives to broaden the number of Ca- nadians who are willing to give the Conservative party a chance. faithful during the recent leadership tiative, but how we got there. If a As 2021 begins, these efforts are campaign to be Unifor President “Jer- million workers were displaced to a work in progress, hastened by a ry Dias’s worst nightmare” may not create a new industry for three mil- loudly ticking clock. Depending on be helpful. lion, then it’s a problem. American a timely and successful rollout of Author J.D. Vance captured well the vaccines that will stem the tide Perhaps to keep faith with the par- the social consequences of entire of the COVID-19 pandemic’s second ty’s more “regular folk” supporters, industries, classes and regions be- wave, Canada could well be in an O’Toole’s appeal at times has a dis- ing squeezed out to make room for election shortly after the spring bud- tinctly populist tinge. In his October newer sources and regions of pros- Canadian Club speech, he claimed get, either because the Liberals want perity in his bestseller Hillbilly Elegy. that “middle class Canada has been one, or the opposition parties see the Every political leader on either side betrayed by the “elites” pursuing opportunity of electoral gains at the of the border would do well to read “unchecked globalization.” While Liberals’ expense. the book. the current pandemic has reminded The boldest of O’Toole’s outreach ef- us all of the value of national self-suf- The best response to these challenges forts is to working class and lower ficiency, and he will need to be care- is not to ignore or patronize real anx- middle-class Canadians. The strate- ful not to stoke the rage of the radi- ieties, but to respond with detailed gy is based on recent trends observed cal individualists. We have just had policies that prove the Conservative in the United States and the Unit- a four-year lesson to the south on Party fully understands the aspira- ed Kingdom that have seen work- where “know-nothing” populism tions and needs of gig workers, Uber ing-class voters increasingly abandon leads, and Canadians will not buy drivers, redundant petroleum engi- traditional voting patterns and cross that approach. neers, and factory workers worried from the left to support the right. about their jobs. This is not a pie-in-the sky gambit. O’Toole understands that the na- In 2016, Donald Trump’s appeal to tivist backlash to globalization has The road to expanding the Conser- the “left-behinds” living in “fly-over its origins not only in the loss of vatives’ potential base runs direct- states” fuelled his presidential vic- skilled jobs but also in the inability ly through energy and climate pol- tory. In 2019, Boris Johnson won a of governments to respond to grow- icy. O’Toole’s predecessor, Andrew majority by breaching Labour’s “red ing economic insecurity, complicat- Scheer, was unable to convince Ca- wall” stronghold in Britain’s north ed by elite contempt for its victims. nadians that he understood climate with a successful appeal to work- (Think Liberals pushing for thou- change or took it seriously; conse- ing-class voters. sands of clean-tech jobs for people quently, he paid a price at the polls. who would gladly displace thou- A September Leger poll for Canadi- sands of Albertan energy workers—a ans for Clean Prosperity found that he new Conservative leader group barely tolerated through grit- 67 per cent of potential Conservative has begun courting private ted teeth and forced smiles—with- voters living in Ontario’s “905 re- sector labour unions in the ser- T out addressing the bridges needed to gion” were not prepared to vote for a vices and the skilled trades to build ease such a transition.) party that doesn’t have a credible cli- bridges, describing them as an “es- mate plan, and an equal number also sential part of the balance between Indeed, it can be argued that the said a carbon tax and rebate should what was good for business and what most valuable lesson of the recent be a priority. was good for employees” in a re- global rise of populism is that, while cent speech. This labour outreach is the decades of globalization have re- O’Toole has opposed a carbon tax, not without challenges. O’Toole has sulted in prosperity, they also had a but has also been open to provinc- to live down something Harper got fundamental blind spot: a singular es adopting other approaches to car- wrong in courting these voters: leg- focus on statistics rather than peo- bon pricing or other market mech- islation designed to undermine and ple. What matters, however, isn’t anisms; he also favours the recent weaken unions under federal jurisdic- just the two million net new jobs re- federal announcement of energy ret- tion. O’Toole’s own promise to party sulting from a particular policy ini- rofits for homes and businesses. He

January—February 2021 22 has said he supports policies that deals and opening new markets as logues like former leadership hope- “reduce emissions without under- we re-balance trade away from Chi- ful , who wears it on his mining productivity.” That’s a start, na.” This is a departure from Cana- sleeve and for whom public provo- but the party will have to reconcile dian trade policy under Prime Minis- cation appears to be the primary ob- the instinctive fears of a carbon tax ter Trudeau, and it is resonating with jective. The latter has also become among Albertans and Saskatchewa- the public. a poster child for anti-vaxxers—a nians in the oil sector, with the ex- group O’Toole would not want any- pectations of Quebecers and Ontari- O’Toole will also where near his party, particularly at ans who don’t think twice about the such a sensitive time. petroleum industry and for whom have a challenge a strong emission-reduction plan is in managing the more O’Toole is a fighter. And given his electoral table stakes. extreme social conservatives background and varied career histo- ry, he has greater credibility poten- in his camp—not the hile a full platform is un- tial than either of his predecessors. der construction by the pragmatists who happen His childhood was split between his W leader and caucus, O’Toole to be socially conservative, hometown of Montreal, , has made some good starts in other but the ideologues like and Bowmanville, Ontario. First an policy areas. former leadership hopeful Airforce Captain, and later a lawyer, GTA’s autoworkers were his neigh- With Canada-China relations in the Derek Sloan. bours. There is something in Erin deep-freeze courtesy of the Meng O’Toole with which most Canadi- Wanzhou extradition case, which ans will be able to relate. His “real provoked the arbitrary detention of people” background should serve two Canadians by China, the Conser- him well in contrast to an opponent vatives have been scoring significant points on the government’s lack of born into privilege. He also lacks his response to China’s increasingly ag- Perhaps the most profound tests for opponent’s proclivity for political gressive foreign policy. Erin O’Toole in the year ahead will be gaffes and lapses of judgment, yet his ability to deal with political traps trails Trudeau in dynamism and po- Indeed, a China policy most resonat- laid for him by the Liberals. They litical charisma. ing with regular Canadians is built on have already attempted to bait him three Michaels: Michael Kovrig and A second truism in Canadian pol- on social policy such as new feder- Michael Spavor—whose abduction itics is that opposition leaders do al legislation on conversion therapy by Beijing sparked a broad Canadian not defeat governments—govern- and medical assistance in dying. The distaste for their state captors—and ments defeat themselves. This means Tory leader has managed both files Michael Chong—O’Toole’s unas- O’Toole’s job is largely to be the next smartly—supporting the objectives sailable foreign affairs point man. credible person ready to take up the in principle, and working to fine-tune Chong has been Parliament’s most mantle when the time comes (and the bills rather than opposing them. vocal critic of the growing influence possibly hasten the process a bit, if The coming year will hold more traps of Chinese agents in Canada, the he can). Erin O’Toole is already tak- from a government that is expert at genocide against Uyghurs in Chi- ing important steps to be that natu- laying them. This could include “poi- na, and the crackdown on democrat- ral successor when the government son pills” in the federal budget de- ic rights in Hong Kong. O’Toole has changes. He’s off to a good start, and signed to force the Conservatives to been equally critical of the Trudeau he has to stay on a path that includes vote against a package that contains government’s “endless indecision” boldly challenging some canonical other popular and needed COVID re- on Huawei’s involvement in build- tenets of his party, and renewing covery measures. While such tactics ing Canada’s 5G network. them into a more modern Canadian are hardly new, dealing with them . It won’t be easy, but it Recent polling suggests Canadi- requires nimble political skill and will ultimately be his path to elector- an public opinion supports what shrewd political messaging. To his al success. O’Toole is saying. In October, Pew credit, O’Toole has brought in some Research reported that seventy-three of the best advisers his party has on Geoff Norquay, former senior social per cent of Canadians now hold an offer to help on both counts. policy advisor to Prime Minister Brian unfavourable view of China. O’Toole Mulroney, is a Principal at Earnscliffe links concerns about China’s grow- O’Toole will also have a challenge Strategy Group in Ottawa. ing influence to a tweaked Conser- in managing the more extreme so- vative trade policy: “I want working cial conservatives in his camp—not Yaroslav Baran, a former parliamentary families to know our focus is on their the pragmatists who happen to be adviser and Conservative strategist, is well-being by seeking better trade socially conservative, but the ideo- Managing Principal of Earnscliffe.

Policy 23 Canada’s 2021 Political Forecast: LESS TRUMP NOISE, MORE SABRE RATTLING

The global health and economic exigencies of the The traditional clichés about the fall of minority governments—small- COVID-19 pandemic have redefined our political context er party loses, governing party peels for nearly a year. In the same way that world wars have votes from both sides by appealing for a majority—are only partially true this been a test of domestic political leadership, Canadian time. Canada being Canada, each par- leaders will be defined by what they did in the war on ty has widely varying challenges prov- this pandemic. As veteran political strategist Robin Sears ince by province. writes, those definitions, and the crisis itself, may have to Will Alberta’s and Jason Kenney’s bungling of COVID see disgruntled clarify before a federal election can be fought. stay home, leaving some room in Edmonton and Calgary for both the orange and red teams? Does Bri- Robin V. Sears COVID cover? Or will that be seen as an Pallister’s wasted summer and fall staggeringly irresponsible if the pan- disaster, notably his public meltdown t’s usually unwise to choose an un- demic is still raging, and deep prob- in early December over COVID, mean tested personality as a party leader. lems about vaccine access have con- Tory losses in Manitoba? Do the im- I There are occasional exceptions tinued to grow? pressive pandemic management and that prove the rule—Rachel Not- strong new majority of British Co- Does the impressive launch by their ley, Barack Obama. Then there is the lumbia’s New Democrat premier, new leader, Erin O’Toole, get strength- much larger club: , Mi- John Horgan, assist his federal party chael Ignatieff, Boris Johnson, Brian ened by more social equality and in seat-rich B.C.? Pallister. One might have put Jagmeet green policy foundations, or does the Singh in the bigger group if Justin passage of time merely leave his cau- he party facing the greatest Trudeau had not handed him a rac- cus opponents—and the occasion- challenges this time is clear- ist springboard from which to soar al anti-vaxxer idiots, notably Derek T ly the Liberals. They will have in 2019. Today, Singh has had a sol- Sloan, in his caucus—to energize op- been in power for six years this No- id minority opposition party leader position to his more centrist Progres- vember, with a decidedly mixed lega- performance. sive Conservative approach to plat- cy on policy delivery versus theatrical form development? performance. After the bruising and bizarre year 2020 fades into mostly unhappy For the New Democrats, who were They face a broadly appealing leader memory, the three national political still deeply in debt in the fall, dodg- and a financially secure challenger on parties face an almost equally chal- ing an election was strategically es- their right, for the first time since Bri- lenging one ahead. On the pandemic sential. That debt will be gone in an Mulroney showed up nearly four journey, we have a complex set of is- short months, and they plan to have decades ago. On their left, they face sues to manage about vaccine distribu- a set a goal of 240 candidates selected an increasingly seasoned and confi- tion, schools and economic recovery. in the first quarter, with very few cau- dent NDP leader who has managed his political position well in this pan- First—following Chrystia Freeland’s cus members retiring. They appear closer to formulating a powerful mes- demic. For the first time ever, they economic statement, and the sub- face an impressive newcomer in sequent response to it in a minority sage on social justice, challenging the Liberals’ failure to deliver from the Green Leader Annamie Paul, who will House—comes Budget 2021, expect- no doubt challenge them in Ontario, left, while O’Toole attacks from the ed in February or March. Do the Lib- Quebec and B.C., among women and centre-right. had an aw- erals use it as a launching pad for a younger voters. campaign, or has their window of ful first two campaigns, then found opportunity begun to close as the his voice in 2011—only to be so trag- All of which is causing some seasoned pandemic lingers? For the Tories, do ically silenced just weeks later. Singh Liberals to hold up a caution sign they try to force an early election as increasingly sounds like he has found about an early election call—still re- the Liberals appear to be losing their his political voice. portedly Justin Trudeau’s imprudent

January—February 2021 24 preference. Why not wait until the ice, recruiting a few stars, and focus- pandemic has been truly defeated and ing on a small list of urban ridings. the economy is on a sound path to re- covery? What is the benefit of going f the vaccine rollout wobbles— early, when neither the health nor which now seems more likely the economic ballot questions can yet I than not—if the second wave be answered? Why not a fall or even does not slow before the snow melts, spring 2022 campaign, when Liber- and if angry anti-lockdown, anti-vax als can claim victories on both fronts sentiment mounts and voters begin with much less risk of contradiction? to seethe “Punish them!” neither the Ontario Tories nor the federal Liber- For New Democrats, a further timing als are going to call an early election. complication is Ontario. Until recent- If the assessment is mixed, one or the ly, the Ford team was preparing for other seems likely to want to revive a campaign in the first half of 2021. their mandates in the year ahead. In But then things went south in their the unlikely event that they each get management of the second surge of ringing endorsements for how they the pandemic. Now the fervour is have juggled the pandemic issues of cooling even among the hawks. An- health, vaccination, education and drea Horwath and the NDP team are NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh in October 2020, economic recovery, we’ll probably not only out of debt and building a after a solid first year for a new leader in a see them both go before the fall. I good war chest—the only one of the contentious minority House. NDP B.C. photo wouldn’t bet the rent on strong pan- provincial parties who can make that demic reviews, however. claim—they are increasingly con- Erin O’Toole clearly wants to broad- uebec is a puzzle for all five fident about their ability to chal- en the Tories’ base to include some federal parties who will con- lenge the new Liberal leader, Stephen older white urban working-class vot- Del Duca, whose timid and tepid Qtest the federal election ers, adding to the more SoCon, small there. Will the Bloc Québécois be launch has even many Ontario Lib- town/small business base that Stephen able to defend their surprising 2019 erals scratching their heads. The Lib- Harper built. Keeping his SoCons in comeback, or will history repeat it- eral base is still deeply vulnerable— line will require some fancy footwork, self with a slow secular slide. Jean- so battered in the previous election but he appears to have concluded they it was not only banished from gov- François Blanchet, another untested have nowhere to go, so he needs to ernment to opposition, but denied leader, had a good campaign perfor- bend to them only rhetorically. even third-party status being one seat mance but has been decidedly unim- If there is pandemic finger-point- short of recognized party standing in pressive in the House. ing, the federal Liberals will get at- the Legislature. It is not clear their Will the fluently bilingual Ms. Paul tacked on all sides by Teams Orange, federal cousins will show much inter- be able to recruit a small group of Blue and Green. Jagmeet Singh has est in offering the kind of assistance young Green stars in Montreal to up- flagged one likely barrage: linking they showered on the Kathleen Wyn- heave all three of the national parties’ vaccine bungling to broader public ne campaign in 2018. strongholds? Will Trudeau get the health mismanagement and the need largest share of the blame from Que- Del Duca will presumably find his for pharmacare protection. He will be becers for their terrible pandemic ex- feet, not to mention a seat in the Leg- tempted to oust the Liberals at a time perience? Can O’Toole’s shift to the islature over time, but the tempta- of his choosing on the issue, as a so- centre help rebuild the bleu coalition tion of a summer/fall campaign for cial justice icon. of nationalists, and small town, small the Ford team remains strong as they Now that we no longer need to obsess business, farm and elderly voters— believe they will have an easier cam- over a madman to the south, we’ll be the coalition that shot John Diefen- paign in a one front war with the New paying closer attention to Canadian baker and Brian Mulroney to stun- Democrats. The timing and outcome political leaders and their pre-elec- ning majorities in 1958 and 1984? of the Ontario and federal election tion sabre-rattling. It will be a high- will be determined by one question For the New Democrats, the Quebec stakes year for all—especially if we do and one question only: Do the Ford decision forks are fewer and more not enter next summer proud to say and Trudeau governments deserve to obvious. This will not be an Orange we beat the most serious public health be punished for their shaky pandem- Wave election in Quebec. There is no challenge in our history. ic management of the second wave? Jack Layton, the favourite son and Contributing Writer Robin V. Sears, also And there won’t be federal and pro- the man with the cane. It will be a a Sunday columnist with The Toronto vincial campaigns in the same politi- rebuild-slowly campaign, protecting Star, is a former national director of the cal season in Ontario. the lone incumbent, André Bouler- NDP during the Broadbent years.

Policy 25 The Greens’ Annamie Paul— Ready to Make History, Again

Whenever the next federal election comes, voters will im- recovery remain, and uncertainties mediately notice a change in the fight card from 2019, generally abound. with one new white male candidate and one new Black, ne thing about which there is no uncertainty is that we female Jewish candidate. After 13 years as leader and four O cannot ignore the climate national elections, Elizabeth May will be replaced in the emergency. federal leaders’ lineup by Annamie Paul. May writes here As the year came to a close U.N. Sec- retary General António Guterres is- about why that’s good for the party. sued a stark warning: “Humanity is waging war on nature. This is suicid- al. Nature always strikes back—and it is already doing so with growing Elizabeth May not coming back as a growth sec- force and fury.” tor. They are shrinking. New ener- Amid the pandemic in 2020, the aving just lived through gy sectors are growing in solar and world experienced over one hun- 2020, it feels an act of hubris geo-thermal. Our working life will dred climate events that killed over to predict anything about the H likely change as more businesses 400,000 people. No one can forget coming year, as no one could have see benefits in remote working. And the horrors of the fires that swept predicted 2020. that will impact the service sector in through the Western United States, It has been a year of health and eco- our downtown cores. producing smoke that choked us in nomic crisis colliding with previously The impacts are uneven. People are . The worsening in- unthinkable politics to form an avoid- returning to work, but less so wom- tensity of hurricanes, the extreme able catastrophe. Among its other les- en. Finance Canada is worried about drought in some regions and extreme sons, we are still a species crowding childcare in a way it has never been flooding in others, heat waves in Si- unwanted into habitats not our own. before. Income inequality, always beria and fires in rain forests, massive We are living in our own petri dish for visible before, has been rendered far loss of Arctic ice and rising seas— other viruses, other pandemics. more obvious in all of its impacts and these are no longer future events, but Still, we have reason to hope that with implications by COVID. daily headlines. the availability of vaccines, we can Government finances are challenged, Governments around the world must imagine a more normal life ahead. but interest rates are at all-time lows make the transition away from fos- With the re-opening of our businesses, and our federal debt is increasing- sil fuels a priority. The fate of the we can imagine economic recovery. ly locking in at low interest rates. world improved with the election of The economic impacts of COVID-19 While the C.D. Howe Institute wor- Joe Biden as president of the Unit- were so unlike anything we have ries about quantitative easing and the ed States. Biden, who’ll be sworn in known before. It was an economic di- risk of inflation, most messages from on January 20, 2021, has commit- saster, but household income of Ca- the Governor of the Bank of Cana- ted to immediately rejoin the Paris nadians went up because of govern- da suggest deflation is a much bigger Agreement. He has appointed a cab- ment programs. Levels of personal risk than inflation. The federal gov- inet-level envoy, John Kerry, himself debt are down. The real estate market ernment provided 80 percent of all thoroughly committed to meaning- is hot. The forestry sector did well, as the COVID relief for Canadian indi- ful climate action. With China hav- did construction. Tourism is in terri- viduals and businesses. No wonder ing significantly improved its com- ble shape. The oil and gas sector was the federal debt has skyrocketed and mitments to net zero earlier this fall, hit hard. The energy mix is moving the deficit ballooned. there is reason for optimism. sharply toward renewable energy. Those things needed to be done. Just But we need to make up for lost Some changes are likely to be- as stimulus spending is still needed. time. In 2020, key climate goals were come permanent. The oil sands are The uncertainties of our economic missed. We were supposed to in-

January—February 2021 26 crease our target, our Nationally De- Harvey of University of New Bruns- termined Contribution (NDC) in wick), found that our culture of grass- 2020. We were supposed to have a roots democracy has led to barriers to plan in place for reducing emissions. our success. The structural and cul- No matter how much the Liberals tural barriers created by the Greens’ claim otherwise with Bill C-12, the anti-hierarchal philosophy can be government’s net-zero emissions leg- changed without changes to make islation, they do not have a plan. Nor the leader the boss. The structural have we met the terms of our com- re-alignment means we will be more mitment in Paris to improve our 2030 effective and coordinated to obtain target in 2020. better results. This is the election in With great fanfare, on December 11, which, with a fresh new face and the day before the United Nations voice at the helm, the summit to mark five years since Par- will, I predict, significantly grow our is, the prime minister announced we vote—and our seat count. have a plan. Well, we do not. We have Clearly, the post-pandemic desires of some new and welcome initiatives, many Canadians resonate with key such as increases in the carbon price societal changes we Greens have been and a whack of new green promises. advocating for a generation—Guaran- But, once again, Trudeau ignored the teed Livable Income, pharmacare, a pledge to improve our target. He of- post-carbon economy, early learning fered that with more work with prov- and child care and greater and more inces we might get to 32-40% below effective protection of nature. 2005 levels by 2030; not officially a As Annamie Paul has said from the new target and far short of the cuts Green Leader Annamie Paul. Her predecessor moment she was elected leader on Oc- required to hold to 1.5 degrees. Elizabeth May thinks the party made the right tober 3rd, the Green Party is exactly leadership choice, and the campaign will prove Enthusiasm for the $15 billion in it. photo suited to the times. “The policies that new green initiatives is somewhat have mattered the most and the poli- muted by the Parliamentary Budget cies that have been spoken about the Officer’s report from days earlier that yer with serious international diplo- most are not our environmental or cli- government spending on the TMX matic experience and a global policy mate policies at the moment,” Paul pipeline is now cresting toward $17 perspective, she brings the combina- told CBC News. billion. The sad reality is that Cana- tion of breadth of vision and intelli- gence required to address the prob- “It has been our social policies—our da ranks near the bottom of the pack role in championing and leading the among industrialized countries on lems people want solved when they vote for us. way on Guaranteed Livable Income or climate action. universal pharmacare or reform to our We were hoping for more. We would After a vigorous competitive lead- long-term care system. People in Can- rather congratulate Liberals for mean- ership race, Annamie’s competence ada are starting to see all of the dimen- ingful climate action, than blast them and principle in speaking to a vast sions of the Green Party.” in a coming election. array of issues has already assured Green Party members that we made The more Canadians hear from Ms. nd that brings me to another the right choice. Paul, the more likely they will be to want more Green MPs in the House. place of uncertainty. When Together, our caucus of three Green A will this minority government MPs works by consensus with our In uncertain times, Canadians want to decide it’s time to try for a majority new leader to press issues that mat- hear from thoughtful people who seek and take Canadians into an election? ter to Canadians in Parliament. With to inspire hope, rejecting fear-mon- Just as I always did as leader of the Ca- our members and volunteers, we are gering and partisan sniping. The more nadian Greens, so too does our new organizing for the next election cam- they get to know Annamie, the more leader, Annamie Paul, keep principle paign. The party commissioned an they will want to hear. And the more at the forefront. independent review of the 2019 elec- they will sign up to help Annamie make history again. Annamie (pronounced Anna-Me) has tion campaign.

already made history—being elected The review, conducted by three not- 2021 will be our year. the first Black leader of a federal polit- ed academics (professors Kimberly Contributing Writer Elizabeth May, ical party. And obviously tripling the Spears of the University of Victoria, former Leader of the Green Party of “firsts” as the first Black Jewish wom- Matto Mildenberger of University of Canada, is the MP for Saanich-Gulf an leader of any federal party. A law- California Santa Barbara and Janice Islands.

Policy 27 America 2021

IN BETWEEN WHAT WAS AND WHAT COULD BE America on the World Stage

The four years of the Trump presidency were uncharted ter- the strategic relationships between Is- rael, the UAE, and Bahrain. Other re- ritory in American foreign policy. President-elect Joe Biden sults have been less well-received, es- and his foreign policy team will prepare their path forward pecially by globalists both in and out as of January 20. Former US career diplomat, now Otta- of government—from the deepening of the trade rift between the Unit- wa-based expat Sarah Goldfeder assesses that transition ed States and China and the result- from up here. ing increasing hostility between the two great powers to the ineffectual strategies employed against Iran and Sarah Goldfeder gle with the reality that some de- North Korea. In addition, the empow- mocracies and some pursuits will not ering of Israel, the endorsement of Is- ince the very beginning, foreign align with our understanding or ex- rael’s annexation of the West Bank policy experts have disagreed perience. Our ability to see the world settlements, and the assassination of S on the proper and balanced role from the point of view of others is Iran’s lead nuclear physicist may leave of the United States of America on the limited. The lack of personal inter- an unwelcome inheritance for the in- world stage. For the first 35 years of actions with foreign perspectives has coming administration. America’s democracy, foreign poli- much to do with the same geography Canada and others could be forgiven cy was simple. It was focused on pro- that allows us to escape the immedi- for feeling that in the past four years tecting and nurturing established al- ate consequences of war and famine. the United States was not only turn- liances and ensuring access to trade It protects us, in more ways than one. ing away from the rest of the world, routes. The notion of entanglements The distrust of mainstream media re- but lashing out at it. But if we want in the affairs of others was rejected as porting, official government reports, to gaze into the foreign policy crystal being particularly imperial, and exact- and the prevalence of propaganda ball and ask what will a Biden admin- ly what the American colonies had re- dispersed by social media has only istration will bring, we need to under- jected in the policies of King George. aggravated that disconnect. stand the past four years in the con- It wasn’t until the 1820s and the heat- Donald Trump operated with an overt text of generational change. ed debate on the Monroe Doctrine philosophy that international in- that the United States articulated a volvement should only come with im- he world should not want a re- fully-developed foreign policy. It took mediate benefits for the United States, turn to a hegemonic, howev- generations to get from there to the based on his definition of “benefit”. T er benevolent, United States of post-Second World War assertion of He reached out to dictators and global America. Somewhere in between what the Marshall Plan and the entrench- bad actors and pushed away America’s we were and what we’ve become will ment of American diplomacy and mil- traditional allies, including Canada. be a necessary compromise. There are, He has dispatched his second secre- itary power around the world. of course, the arguments that the world tary of state, Mike Pompeo, his former itself has changed, has become more Throughout its history, Americans CIA director and an evangelical Chris- complicated, that our enemies are no have argued among ourselves about tian who has long blended religion longer nation-states that are subject the rightness and efficiency of our and policy into his understanding of to international standards of behav- global involvement, and with the evo- the national interest, to secure these ior and norms, but non-state actors. In lution of the intelligence community immediate benefits. the depth of these debates, academics from war-time capacity to fixture of The results have included a strength- and pundits inevitably sound nostalgic the everyday diplomatic relationship, ening of Israel’s alliances in the Mid- for other times. The reality is that ev- many have questioned the why, the dle East in the form of the Abraham ery moment in America’s past has con- how, and the what. Accords, which even Democrats, how- tained uncertainty and instability, just Americans believe in democracy and ever unconvinced of the tactics, ap- as now. Non-state actors have been freedom, in “life, liberty, and the plaud. Speaker Pelosi and then-candi- around since the beginning of state-to- pursuit of happiness.” But we strug- date Biden lauded the deal to deepen state diplomacy and have always been

January—February 2021 28 complicated as well as often ruthless he good news for Canada is and violent. The United States has, for that Americans understand decades, been an active participant in T the requirement for strong stra- dialogues with non-state actors, some- tegic relationships on the North Amer- times openly and sometimes not, ma- ican continent. If there is any country nipulating the ebbs and flows of these that is consistently understood to be a players for its own national interests. valuable and unconditional partner by Americans, it is Canada. The challeng- The immediate renewal of the engine es for the relationship will continue to that powers American diplomacy will be the traditional ‘condominium is- be the first order of business for the sues’ that Condoleezza Rice described. Biden national security team, includ- Transactional and compartmental- ing incoming Secretary of State Antony ized, these are largely trade-based, but Blinken. The US Department of State, also include burden-sharing at NATO long the standard-bearer for the glob- and alignment on national security is- al diplomatic corps, has been hollowed sues such as 5G network participation out and demoralized in the past four by Huawei. years. The care and feeding of Ameri- ca’s diplomatic, intelligence, and in- Both Canada and the United States ternational development communi- have long benefited from the asymme- ties will be a priority. The Blinken era try in the relationship, and there will will be one of rebuilding and buttress- Antony Blinken as US Under Secretary of State be the expectation that the contin- ing of the human capital that makes with Vice President Biden in 2016. As SecState ued leverage of Canada’s global rela- diplomacy happen. Colin Powell en- under President Biden, Blinken begins with tionships will work for the good of the institutional knowledge of issues, including tered into his tenure as secretary rec- Canada-US files, that was conspicuously continent. In diplomacy, sometimes ognizing the importance of taking care lacking under the previous Trump the mouse is better deployed than the of the country’s first line of defense in administration. US Air Force Flickr photo elephant. And now, at least for a lit- ways that only a general could thor- tle while, the elephant’s behaviour oughly appreciate. Tony Blinken will including Canada, and not only ap- should be more predictable. That said, similarly need to focus on building the plaud the additional leadership they expect the next four years to be about intellectual and strategic personnel as- have taken in these past four years, but rebuilding the relationship between sets that the country will need to rees- look to them to take on more. the American people and American tablish itself as a trusted actor on the The challenge for the Biden Admin- foreign policy more than restoring global stage. istration will be navigating a world American dominance to a world that where trust in diplomatic institutions is looking for a more multilateral ap- his national security team will that form the foundation of this pos- proach to global leadership. Especially also need to address fundamen- sibility has been eroded and networks in a world post-COVID, with precious T tal issues that have long been frayed. They will have to not just con- little funding on the table for invest- ignored, and not just in the adminis- vince the world that America is a will- ment diplomacy akin to the Chinese trations of the immediate past. Ameri- ing partner, but Americans that the Belt and Road Intitiative, the United cans need to be able to see how a glob- world stage is an important place to be. States will have to carefully choose its al footprint is important, that what methods and spheres of influence. Canada and the rest of the world un- happens around the world matters to derstand that there’s no snapback to Canada should stand ready to con- them at home. Putting a national in- how the world was before Donald J. tinue the pathway it has been on terest test on foreign policy, trade, and Trump became president. But the real these past four years. Engagement, development policy is already some- question is whether the world under- multilateralism, and leadership in thing openly being discussed—how stands that the United States, in ways areas of strength will remain import- to measure and understand how these unique to it, has been failing its for- ant. The biggest change will be that policy actions impact middle and eign policy infrastructure by failing instead of looking over its shoulder, working-class Americans must be part the American people. There is every Canada can look across the table at of the process, similar to how Gen- indication that the Biden team un- its neighbour and know that its con- der-Based Analysis (GBA+) is now en- derstands that one of the most chal- tributions are valued and will be re- trenched in policy making in Canada. lenging aspects of their foreign policy warded, not punished. The result may well be a less activist plan is domestic politics. Demonstrat- Contributing Writer Sarah Goldfeder, a America, one that looks to the rest of ing the value of international entan- career State Department officer, was an like-minded nations to carry more wa- glements to the American public will adviser to two American ambassadors ter. This national security team will be both a priority and a challenge for to Canada. She is now a Principal of the likely look to NATO allies and others, Blinken and team. Earnscliffe Strategy Group in Ottawa.

Policy 29 Joe Biden’s New Role: Humanist- in-Chief

The first two decades of a century transformed by the Fourth es that any normal presidency would have been compelled not only to fo- Industrial Revolution have been characterized by the gradual cus on but, in a healthy democracy, siphoning of power away from the public good toward a nar- deal with publicly. row group of interests that would once have been described There is no shortage of such challeng- as special, but who might now be more practically thought es, from climate change to economic inequality. But two decades into the of as harmoniously corrupt. The new American president transformative impact of the Fourth can begin to change that, writes longtime Washington col- Industrial Revolution, the public pol- icy challenge that has been most im- umnist and Policy Associate Editor Lisa Van Dusen. pactfully obscured by the chaos of the past four years is the future of work, which is simply a less melodra- Lisa Van Dusen pandemic that should have been con- matic way of labeling the future of tained and whose contagion was am- human beings. ore than any incumbent plified, accelerated and mocked by the since Franklin Delano Roos- president of the United States. It also n his International Monetary M evelt took office in 1933 includes the corruption and degrada- Fund Richard Goode Lecture on amid the Great Depression, Joe Biden tion of democracy that same presi- I Dec. 4, 2020, MIT economist will have an epic checklist of immedi- dent has undertaken, from his role as Daron Acemoglu, co-author with ate, medium-term and long-term pri- a one-man disinformation geyser to James A. Robinson of Why Nations Fail orities and promises to get through as his threats against democratic norms, and The Narrow Corridor: States, Societ- 46th president of the United States. institutions and processes to his ongo- ies and the Fate of Liberty, outlined how ing, at this writing, refusal to partici- technological change over the past When Biden took office as Barack pate in the peaceful transfer of power two decades has combined with the Obama’s vice president in 2009, the that has distinguished every change in decline in labour demand, the decline same was said about the global finan- administration since John Adams suc- in wages and earnings and the inter- cial cataclysm that was both the ur- ceeded George Washington in 1797. net-surged rise of artificial intelligence gent crisis management challenge It also includes a pro-active campaign (AI) to produce the societal reckoning and, potentially, the economic em- to deplete American influence world- we’re now facing between the enor- bolization that could choke their wide, the emboldening of America’s mous profits of AI-enhanced auto- governing agenda. The Obama ad- geopolitical rivals and the negative mation and the value of human en- ministration responded by combin- outcomes that have been produced as deavour. “What we view as the right ing economic recovery with prog- a result of both. More practically, it in- approach to AI is shaped by the same ress on its policy priorities, including cludes the sabotage of American gov- companies that are profiting from it,” $90 billion in clean energy jobs and ernance from the inside, partly cata- Acemoglu noted of Big Tech’s influ- manufacturing. logued in the Michael Lewis book The ence on this evolution. “When you So, Biden is no stranger to the hair-rais- Fifth Risk, that has defined a parade of look at the vision of companies that… ing, white-knuckle transition briefing. public incompetence and corruption want to get rid of humans and make But this time is different because the and gutting of public service bodies algorithms more capable, of course damage that he, Vice President Kama- from the State Department to the En- they are not going to spearhead tech- la Harris and their team face in the vironmental Protection Agency. nological change that puts humans metaphorically ransacked Oval Office Meanwhile, the hourly distraction back into the picture. We are put- that Biden will be stepping back into and diversion, the sheer unbelievable ting all of our eggs in the automation will have been perpetrated and/or ra- lunacy of the reality-show rampage of basket because we have relinquished tionalized entirely by his predecessor. the past four years has served anoth- technological leadership as a society That list includes, first and foremost, a er purpose. It has obscured the most to a handful of companies led by a tragically avoidable death toll from a urgent reality-based policy challeng- handful of people.”

January—February 2021 30 2025—accelerated by the pandemic— will disrupt 85 million jobs globally. In September, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia produced the study Forced Automation by COVID-19? Early Trends from Current Population Survey Data outlining the process by which time and lockdown attrition are already producing the permanent au- tomation of human jobs.

On Dec. 4, the same day Acemoglu delivered his virtual IMF lecture, the Montreal inaugural plenary of the Global Partnership on Artificial Intel- ligence was wrapping up two days of meetings convened by Prime Minis- ter Justin Trudeau and President Em- manuel Macron of France. The group, which also includes the United States, Australia, Germany, India, , Ja- Joe Biden and Sen. Kamala Harris on the primary campaign trail in March 2020. They became pan, Mexico, New Zealand, the Re- the Democratic ticket and swept the popular vote by 7 million votes, and won the Electoral public of Korea, Singapore, Slovenia, College by a decisive margin of 306-232. The College confirmed their election as President and the United Kingdom, and the Europe- Vice President on December 14. Joe Biden Flickr photo an Union, represents the first, best ex- ample of a multilateral response to the The core question at the heart of this AI’s disruptive potential, and who has challenge that holds the broader pub- reckoning isn’t whether Artificial Gen- described it as humanity’s “biggest ex- lic interest at the core of its mission. eral Intelligence (AGI) will have the istential threat.” capacity to learn any intellectual task That may help the Biden adminis- that human beings can perform—that The obvious bulwark against that tration begin to address at least one has essentially been answered. It’s Hobbesian nightmare in which hu- of three phenomena that have inter- whether AGI will be able to replace man beings literally become more twined into one unsettling trend. The humans across a broad range of pro- trouble than they’re worth—with degradation of democracy, the eco- duction, and whether the prioritiza- their costly health care needs and end- nomic marginalization of human cap- tion of profit over people will allow less demands for food, water, freedom, ital and the avoidably amplified mor- that to happen. The implications of agency and fun—is democracy. Late- bidity and mortality of the COVID-19 that question have not yet been the ly, democracy has been as besieged as pandemic have produced the sort of subject of serious public debate at na- truth, normalcy, public integrity and devaluation of human beings and tional, international or multilateral human rights, most overtly by Don- their interests that, history has shown, levels, though they have been pon- ald Trump’s antics and by China’s le- can be epically catastrophic. dered for some time by Silicon Valley, veraging of its economic heft to un- The resistance to correcting what intelligence agencies, academic spe- dermine democracy worldwide and of some interests see not as damage cialists and the interests who stand technology to prototype surveillance but as progress will be significant. to gain the most in power and profit state authoritarianism at home and, But the arrival of a president whose from automation. increasingly, in Hong Kong. profile includes the attribute of be- “If we just bumble into this unpre- he COVID-19 pandemic has ac- ing authentically, empathetically pared, it will probably be the biggest celerated AI trends that would human could bring exponential val- mistake in human history,” MIT phys- T be unbridled by the absence of ue to the process of reversing dehu- icist Max Tegmark says of the public democracy by several orders of magni- manization. Joe Biden’s job may be intelligence vacuum on AI. “It could tude. “If you ask tech companies, they to build back better, but his role may

enable brutal global dictatorship with think this is a great period for further be much larger. unprecedented inequality, surveil- automation,” Acemoglu said. “Seven- Lisa Van Dusen is Associate Editor of lance, suffering and maybe even hu- ty-five percent of the companies in the Policy Magazine. She was Washington man extinction.” That view is echoed United States say they are taking fur- bureau chief for Sun Media, international by Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk, ther steps no for further automation.” writer for Peter Jennings at ABC News, who, as the developer of an AI neu- The World Economic Forum says and an editor at AP in New York and ro-implant, knows something about that the next wave of automation in UPI in Washington.

Policy 31 Canada’s Goal: Re-engaging the World on Trade

If the COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world of how the World Trade Organization (WTO), foreign discrimination against Ameri- biologically and economically borderless our most wicked can goods, and ongoing trade negoti- problems are, the presidency of Donald Trump was an object ations, notably with the UK. lesson in the importance of trade as a bilateral barometer and Biden has been clear that he views China as a “competitor” and not an multilateral operating system. Veteran trade negotiator and “enemy” and that he wants to work former Canadian Ambassador to the World Trade Organi- with allies in bringing China more ef- zation John Weekes looks ahead to the 2021 trade horizon. fectively into the rules-based system. He will also need to decide what to do about the tariffs his predecessor John Weekes count of the fact that the legislative applied to China. framework empowering the presi- As a supporter of traditional American he top trade priority for Can- dent to negotiate trade agreements— multilateral diplomacy, the Biden ad- ada in 2021 must be build- Trade Promotion Authority or TPA, ministration will want to show Ameri- ing an effective working re- T also known as “fast-track authori- can support for the WTO. In particular, lationship with the incoming Biden ty”—was last renewed in 2015 and it will want to engage constructively in Administration in Washington. The expires on July 1 2021. appointing a new director general, re- reasons are simple. The United States The pursuit of a number of Biden’s vitalizing the organization’s negotiat- remains by far our most important top policy priorities will generate trade ing function, and in finding a solution bilateral partner and working with impacts in other countries. For ex- to the impasse largely created by the the US will enhance the prospects ample, addressing economic recov- Trump administration over the Ap- for achieving Canada’s objectives for ery through an infrastructure program pellate Body. Biden will want to use global trade reform. with “Buy American” features, or ad- the WTO and its dispute settlement During the transition, President-elect dressing climate change by rescinding system as part of his China strategy. Biden made clear that his focus will be the presidential permit for the Key- There will be significant opportunities on the pandemic, economic recovery, stone XL project, will adversely impact for Canada to work with the new ad- climate change, and healing a frac- Canadian interests. At least, that’s the ministration in pursuit of Canadian tured country. Trade is not near the consensus view of the Canadian ener- objectives for WTO reform. top of his priority list. gy sector and trade policy community. Unlike Canada and several other coun- However, Biden will find it hard to Even though this latter action would tries, the US does not have a free trade avoid dealing with a number of trade achieve no reduction of emissions in agreement with the European Union issues because trade considerations the US or globally, it would offer a po- (EU) and is not part of the Compre- will permeate many aspects of his do- litical win for Biden’s progressive sup- hensive and Progressive Agreement mestic policy priorities. porters, led by his climate change czar, for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). John Kerry, who as Secretary of State Biden’s trade policy will be more mea- Trade negotiations between the US in the Obama Administration revoked sured than Donald Trump’s—less er- and the UK are well-advanced; an the Keystone permit in the first place. ratic, but still focused very much on agreement may be seen as attractive On the hopeful side, the American what is best for American interests. to the US which would like to help de- Recovery and Reinvestment Act over Very importantly, it will be tempered fine the UK’s post Brexit trade policy. which Biden presided following the by a belief that the rule of law in in- In addition, the Trump administra- 2008-09 financial crash included “Buy ternational trade relations is good for tion has completed so-called Phase I American” provisions to which Cana- Americans. However, Biden’s ap- agreements with China and Japan and da obtained key exemptions. proach may still pose significant chal- it intended to pursue more compre- lenges for Canadian interests. everal other trade matters will hensive agreements at an early date. Any serious discussion of the future be hard to avoid. These include As the new administration takes stock trade agenda will need to take ac- S dealing with China, the crisis at of the trade files, it may well conclude

January—February 2021 32 In the Pacific, Canada should be en- couraging other countries in South- east Asia to join the CPTPP if they are willing to accept its high standards. Doing so took on new importance in November when 15 countries signed the Regional Comprehensive Eco- nomic Partnership (RCEP). This deal, eight years in the making, links the 10 members of the Association of South- east Asian Nations (ASEAN) with Chi- na, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. Although it is not of the same quality as the CPTPP it is none- theless expected to have significant Historical context on NAFTA 2.0 begins in Texas in October 1992. President Carlos Salinas, trade-generating effects. President George H.W. Bush, and Prime Minister Brian Mulroney watch as their trade ministers, Jaime Serra Puce, Carla Hills and Michael Wilson sign the first NAFTA deal. John Weekes was The Canadian government has al- Canada’s Chief Negotiator in the talks. George Bush Presidential Library photo ready concluded a trade continuity agreement with the UK, to ensure the that trade needs to move up the policy al marketplace. Much groundwork has two countries continue to apply CE- priority list. been done including in the CUSMA, TA-like conditions to each other when but more is needed in part to prevent Canadians should not forget that, the UK completes its transition out of splitting the world into two digital the EU on December 31. while Canada will be focused primari- universes as a result of damaging fric- ly on the Canada-US bilateral, the US tion between China and the US. In both the EU and the Pacific, the will be focused on the world. Canada government needs to make a further Governments will emerge from the can maximize its influence in Wash- effort to encourage and assist Cana- pandemic heavily indebted; this offers ington by demonstrating how it be dian businesses to take advantage of an excellent opportunity to improve can be a helpful partner, with useful these new trade agreements. ideas. Working with the Biden team WTO disciplines aimed at reduc- on global challenges will also improve ing the use of trade distorting subsi- Finally, the government should devel- prospects for successfully managing dies. Before the pandemic, the US, the op a long-term strategy for strengthen- bilateral disputes. EU and Japan were already discuss- ing trade relations with China. China ing how to engage in such negotia- is simply too big to ignore. By some To be successful in its US engage- tions with China. For Canada, heavily measures it already has the world’s ment, Canada needs to have a clear dependent on the export of prima- largest economy and is growing at a sense of its objectives and goals— ry commodities that are often subsi- much faster rate than any of our other the key elements of trade reform and dized by foreign governments, this is partners. Despite the current political trade disciplines needed to bolster a unique opportunity. difficulties in the bilateral relationship, Canadian trade competitiveness. This The pandemic has illustrated the fra- Canada’s merchandise exports to Chi- work will also pay dividends in fur- gility of supply chains for medical na in September 2020 were 12.5 per- thering wider cooperation, for exam- products and underlined the need cent greater than a year earlier—this, ple with Mexico in working toward for a more resilient system to manage while Canada’s total merchandise ex- the smooth implementation of the a future pandemic more effectively. ports dropped 7.4 percent and exports Canada-US-Mexico Agreement (CUS- Canada is already promoting new ap- to the US were down 9.1 percent. MA) known as NAFTA 2.0. proaches through the Ottawa Group. While there is no doubt about the Of course, Canada must also be pre- tightening that has taken place under pared to firmly defend its interests if eyond the US, Canada needs to the Xi Jinping regime, at some point, the United States, or any other coun- redouble its efforts to ensure if China’s history is a guide, those fa- try, takes unjustified action against Canadians can sell their goods B vouring opening up and greater reform Canadian exports that may require and services into fast-growing mar- will once again be in the ascendancy. retaliation. kets in other parts of the world. The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Canada needs to lay the ground now

he digital economy is the most Agreement (CETA) with Europe and to prepare for that opportunity. dynamic factor in interna- the CPTPP offer Canadians a chance John Weekes, a senior business advisor T tional economic relations. Im- to succeed in these markets because at Bennett Jones, was Canada’s chief proved trade rules are needed to foster the United States does not have free negotiator for the original NAFTA and its contribution to growth in the glob- trade agreements with these countries. served as ambassador to the WTO.

Policy 33 Canada and the World

Official Languages Minister Mélanie Joly and PM Trudeau at a press conference in late 2020. In the Throne Speech, the Liberals promised a renewal of the Official Languages Act, but it’s not clear what that means.Adam Scotti photo Revising the Official Languages Act: Will History Repeat Itself?

Canada’s Official Languages Act was made law in 1969, Stéphanie Chouinard was substantially amended in 1988 and is now overdue t has been several years since of- for an overhaul. As the issue of language rights re-emerged ficial languages have been as hot- I ly debated in the House of Com- in the final weeks of 2020, it was obvious that many ele- mons as they were in the last few ments of the debate have changed since 1988, but, as Roy- weeks of 2020. Indeed, parliamentar- ians have recently focused on the sta- al Military College professor Stéphanie Chouinard writes, tus of both official languages, as well the politics at all levels remain remarkably consistent. as whether, and if so, when, the gov- ernment would present its plans for a new-and-improved Official Languag- es Act (OLA)—a promise the Liberals made during the 2019 electoral cam- paign and reiterated in last Septem- ber’s Speech from the Throne.

The OLA turned 50 in 2019; its pres- ent iteration was adopted in 1988. To say this legislation needs a revi- sion is an understatement. Some of its elements are painfully outdat- ed. For example, while Part IV of the Act outlines the federal govern-

January—February 2021 34 ment’s obligation to use both offi- As of today, two out of five Canadians were not cial languages in communications with the Canadian public, it is de- born in this country. While our immigration void of any mention of now-ubiqui- system favours speakers of both official languages, tous electronic communications or knowledge of English far outweighs knowledge of French of social media. Other weaknesses in among newcomers. the Act, such as the Official Languag- es Commissioner (OLC)’s mandate, or Part VII of the Act (outlining the federal government’s commitment to the enhancement of official lan- guage communities’ vitality, which modation and compromise between tection and enhancement of Indige- was gutted by the Federal Court in French and English that predates nous languages. 2018), are also in dire need of a ma- Confederation itself. jor facelift. At least one element has remained Second, Indigenous peoples mark an- unchanged since the OLA was last Generally speaking, it is good prac- other change in our society, not only amended: the omnipresence of Que- tice to revisit legislation of such im- from a demographic perspective, as bec in Canada’s language debates. portance as the OLA once every few they are the fastest growing segment One needs to remember that in 1988, decades to ensure its continued use- of the population, but also because the Meech Lake Accord, Prime Min- fulness and relevance. However, de- Canadians are paying more attention ister Brian Mulroney’s attempt to bates on this legislative overhaul are to their issues than ever before, and “bring Quebec back into the Cana- taking place in a country that looks the protection and revitalization of dian fold” by granting it status as a very different today from the Cana- their languages is an urgent issue. “distinct society”, was still being de- da of 1988. bated in the country’s provincial leg- Of the more than 70 indigenous lan- islatures. The new OLA was a way guages that are spoken in Canada to- irstly, Canada’s demographics to signal to Quebec a willingness to day, only three are considered to be have changed drastically since reinforce French as an official lan- in a relatively safe position, a suffi- F then. Our population has guage in Canada, while calming of- cient number of speakers prevent- grown by a third in the past three ficial-language minorities (namely, ing their disappearance: Cree, In- decades, and much of that growth Anglo-Quebecers and Francophones uktitut, and Ojibway. All others are can be attributed to immigration. As outside Quebec) who, understand- endangered or on the verge of ex- of today, two out of five Canadians ably, feared being forgotten in the were not born in this country. While tinction—a direct result of Canada’s constitutional debates. our immigration system favours attempts at assimilation through co- speakers of both official languages, lonial policies such as residential ust over 30 years later, it appears knowledge of English far outweighs schools. In 2019, the federal govern- not much has changed on this knowledge of French among new- ment adopted the Indigenous Lan- Jfront. Despite organizations such comers, which was spoken by only guages Act. While this was a first step as the Fédération des communautés 2.82 percent of Canada’s immigra- in the right direction, the act does francophones et acadienne (FCFA) tion intake in 2019. not live up to some Indigenous peo- and Quebec Community Groups ples’ expectations. For example, the Network (QCGN) tirelessly calling As a result, while the number of Inuit made it clear that they wished on the federal government to mod- French speakers in Canada is ris- for more than a recognition of their ernize the OLA for years, the safe- ing, their weight relative to the to- languages’ existence but also for the ty of French in Quebec is what has tal population is slowly decreasing. development of government services sparked the latest political debate on We have now reached the symbol- in their language (to which they are official languages. In mid-Novem- ically critical point where there are entitled at the territorial, but not at more allophones (individuals whose ber, St-Laurent Liberal MP Emman- the federal, level). mother tongue is neither English uella Lambropoulos questioned the nor French) in Canada than there The powers of the newly created In- veracity of the decline of the use of are French-as-mother-tongue indi- digenous Languages Commission- French by Montreal merchants in a viduals. These statistics do not fail er’s office (the holder of this office parliamentary committee meeting to be mobilized by detractors of offi- is not yet named) are only a shadow with the OLC. Her questions elicited cial languages, who often argue that of the OLC’s. An eventual revision a political storm; several debates in French should not be getting special of the OLA will once again address the House of Commons have since treatment in this country – forget- the comparative inaction of the fed- been devoted to the protection of ting a history of linguistic of accom- eral government towards the pro- French in Quebec. This issue now ap-

Policy 35 Evolution of the Population by Mother Tongue, as a Percentage of the Total Population, 1901 to 2016, Canada

90

80

70 English 60

50

40 French 30 20 Non-official languages 10

0 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011

Source: Statistics Canada, Census of the Population. pears to be the main concern in the Francophones and Acadians outside have made their requests clear. More- revision of the OLA. Quebec, this rhetoric rather seems over, the only provincial counterpart an attempt at seducing right-wing with whom she appears to be in dis- The different parties’ position on this nationalists in Quebec, a province cussions over the revision of the act file is revealing. The Bloc Québécois where the Conservative vote is noto- has, unsurprisingly, adopted the po- is Quebec minister Simon Jolin-Bar- riously weak, and potential elector- sition of the Legault government that rette. The white paper announce- al gains plentiful. This Conservative all institutions under federal jurisdic- ment is hardly coincidental in terms rhetoric also overlooks Indigenous tion in Quebec should be subjected of electoral politics, especially in a peoples and their languages. Mean- to Bill 101, rather than the OLA. minority House that could move into while, the NDP, which was a force election mode at any time. This would create a dangerous prece- to contend with in Quebec less than dent whereby other provinces could a decade ago, and which tradition- Just as the concern for Quebec was top push for similar exemptions. Outside ally had a strong official-languages of mind for legislators in the revision New Brunswick, Canada’s only offi- “champion” (former Acadie-Bathurst of the OLA in 1988, the last weeks of cially bilingual province, and Ontar- MP Yvon Godin, for instance, tabled 2020 have set the stage for history to io’s “designated regions” as per the several bills on mandatory bilingual- be repeating itself in the new year. French Language Services Act, federal ism for Supreme Court justices), is Let’s hope the parties’ appetite for institutions could function in English missing in action in this debate. electoral gains in that province won’t only. This would in practice render eclipse the necessity of strengthening both Part IV (pertaining to commu- ate in November, Official Lan- this act so it meets today’s challeng- nications with the public) and Part V guages Minister Mélanie Joly es and the needs of all Canadians— (pertaining to federal civil servants’ announced an upcoming white including official-language minori- right to work in the official language L paper on the future of official lan- ties—who have until now driven the of their choice) of the OLA mean- guages, which should be presented to discussion on the new OLA, and who ingless. During the fall sitting of the Parliament early in 2021. The choice depend on it most. House, the federal Conservative Party of a white paper as a policy tool is not was pressuring the government to ta- uninteresting, empowering her to go Contributing Writer Stéphanie ble a new OLA by the end of the year. beyond the scope of the OLA and to Chouinard is an Assistant Professor It has also begun referring to official propose changes to other critical leg- of Political Science at Royal Military languages as “national languages” in islation and regulations impacting College (Kingston). She is cross- a nod to the “two founding peoples” official languages. However, Joly has appointed at Queen’s University. Her of this country. already conducted wide-ranging con- research focuses on language rights, While this ideological turn does not sultations with minority communi- Indigenous rights, federalism, and intrinsically deny the existence of ty stakeholders on the OLA, and they judicial politics.

January—February 2021 36 Maintaining Confidence in the Convention of Confidence

In Canada’s parliamentary system, the confidence conven- n the early days of the first wave tion is not written into any statute or standing order of the of the pandemic, as emergency cir- I cumstances took over and the House, but without it the system lacks democratic legitima- country braced itself for an indefinite cy. The confidence convention gives Parliament the power period of hardship, the spirit on Par- liament Hill was more cooperative and to hold government to account. In the context of a deadly collegial than we are used to. The par- pandemic, opposition parties who might otherwise have an tisan bickering that has become typ- ical in Canadian politics was tempo- incentive to bring down the government are trying to have rarily softened, and all federal parties it both ways: they tell us they have no confidence in the eventually came together (after some government but they allow it to continue to hold office, all jostling) in support of an $82 billion aid package. But, in the months that to avoid an election. The Trudeau government, for its part, followed, this détente was replaced by has been misusing the Prime Minister’s prerogative to deem a climate of partisanship that can be described as particularly nasty even by any vote as a matter of confidence as a tool to avoid gov- Canadian standards. ernment accountability in Parliament. The political drama started in ear- nest back in June with the discovery Lori Turnbull the government and the opposition that the WE Charity, an organization set a dangerous precedent that could known for its closeness to the Trudeau n November 30, 2020, Dep- contribute to the erosion of the confi- family, was chosen to administer the uty Prime Minister and Min- dence convention. Canada Student Service Grant pro- ister of Finance Chrystia Free- gram. Cabinet ministers, high-ranking O The Liberal government is in a mi- land delivered a long-awaited fiscal civil servants, representatives from the nority position, which means that its update to a skeptical House of Com- WE Charity, and the prime minister survival of confidence votes is not a mons. In her statement, she proposed himself appeared before the Standing foregone conclusion. Though pub- a range of measures aimed at eco- Committee on Finance and the Stand- lic approval ratings regarding the fed- nomic stabilization and recovery in ing Committee on Access to Informa- the short, medium, and long terms, eral government’s handling of the tion, Privacy and Ethics. The program including $100 billion in stimulus pandemic have been high, the gov- was cancelled and Minister of Finance spending, extensions of the wage and ernment’s claim to holding the confi- , himself the subject of a rent subsidies, and support for the dence of the House of Commons has WE-related investigation by the Con- tourism and hospitality industries. been shaky, specifically in the second flict of Interest and Ethics Commis- half of 2020. sioner, resigned. The government survived the confi- dence votes related to the fiscal up- The fierce political rhetoric has sug- Though the WE story no longer dom- date, but expressions of confidence gested that opposition parties have inates headlines, it has had a lasting in this government have been hol- serious concerns about both the effect on political discourse and on low and tentative. Opposition leaders competence and the integrity of the the relationships between political have made public statements to the ef- government but, paradoxically, the parties. Opposition parties have regu- fect that, while they do not have con- government has survived successive larly accused Prime Minister Trudeau fidence in the government, they allow tests of confidence. This pandemic pe- and his government of corruption, fa- legislation to pass in order to avoid an riod has shone a closer light on a wide vouritism, entitlement, and incom- unwanted election. For its part, the range of systemic problems and weak- petence. For example, in a press con- government has not shied away from nesses, among them the vulnerabil- ference following the announcement using the confidence convention as ity of the confidence convention—a that Minister Freeland would take a political tool to avoid parliamenta- foundational piece of our constitution over the Finance portfolio, Conserva- ry accountability. The actions of both —to political agendas. tive MP accused the

Policy 37 government. Bloc Québécois leader Yves Blanchet has said that the gov- ernment is not “worthy” of the pub- lic’s trust and has called on the Prime Minister to resign. If none of the par- ties has confidence in the Liberal mi- nority government, what is it still do- ing here? A legitimate government is one that holds the confidence of the House. If opposition leaders are to be believed, there is no confidence here.

he key challenge lies in the fact that, in minority government T circumstances, the expression of “no confidence” and the decision to go to election are conflated. Ideal- ly, these would be two separate trans- actions. Under the current conditions, opposition parties are keen to spend their political capital on efforts to drain our confidence in the government, but they do not want to be responsible for Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland at her Fall Economic Statement. As a money measure it was a confidence vote the government easily survived. But the constitutional convention isn’t always an early election in the middle of a so clear, and in this minority Parliament, Lori Turnbull writes, that could be a problem. deadly pandemic (particularly if they Adam Scotti photo don’t have the money to fight one). Prime Minister of “corruption and fidence measure, which was the politi- The government knows this and is not chaos.” Media pressed Poilievre on cal equivalent to the government say- shy to use a snap election as a threat to the harshness of his words, suggest- ing: “Over my dead body.” avoid losing a confidence vote. ing that if he and his party believe the Apparently, the government would The “constructive confidence” vote, a government to be corrupt, then sure- have preferred to throw the coun- familiar practice in other Westminster ly efforts should be made to defeat it. try into an election during a global systems, would be a game changer. But this has not happened. pandemic, as the second wave com- This convention would require that, if menced in earnest, rather than face Parliament wanted to defeat a govern- his begs questions around committee investigation. On the oth- ment, it would have to namethe new what, if anything, confidence er hand, the Liberals suggested that Prime Minister in the very same mo- or lack thereof means, if parties T the Conservatives were the ones play- ment. This would allow governments are willing to tolerate a government ing politics. Liberal House Leader Pab- to lose votes without losing confi- that they believe to be rotting from lo Rodriguez made the point that the dence. It would take away any incen- the inside out. The NDP has been the Conservative motion was “extremely tive to pass laws in order to avoid an Liberal government’s partner since serious. They go over the limits. It’s election. And it would allow Parlia- the minority government was elected. irresponsible. It was about paralyzing ment, rather than the Prime Minister, They have protected the Liberals from the government in the middle of pan- to determine whether confidence is losing confidence votes, even as lead- demic when we need to be there work- at stake. Canada might consider this er Jagmeet Singh complains of years of ing for Canadians, working for our route in order to avoid situations like broken promises on childcare and oth- seniors, working for our families, help- the one that has boiled over at the er important files. ing those who have lost their jobs.” present time. In the meantime,par- Perhaps the most concerning display The NDP voted with the Liberals ties on both sides of the House need of the fragility of the confidence con- against this motion, which achieved to stand behind their rhetoric: don’t vention, not to mention the break- the dual objective of keeping the gov- use the word “confidence”, either in down in civility between the parties, ernment alive and allowing it to avoid the positive or negative sense, unless occurred in October when the Con- the scrutiny of a new committee. you really mean it. servatives introduced a motion to cre- However, afterwards, Singh refused to Contributing Writer Lori Turnbull is ate a special committee to investigate confirm his confidence in the govern- an Associate Professor and Director of government ethics and spending. The ment. For his part, Conservative Lead- the School of Public Administration at Liberals immediately announced that er Erin O’Toole has said publicly that . She has been a co- the motion would be treated as a con- he does not have confidence in the winner of the Donner Prize.

January—February 2021 38 Canada as a Sentinel of Freedom, Then and Now

Michael Chong’s parents were among those who came to during the government of Prime Min- ister Brian Mulroney. Canada, grateful to their new home for its role in liberating The current government came to of- their people—Hong Kongers and the Dutch—in the Second fice saying it was going to make Can- World War. The Conservative foreign affairs critic finds ada a global leader in helping the poorest around the world. Under the our country doesn’t step up today in freedom missions as it current government, ODA has aver- did then, and offers examples of Canada coming up short. aged 0.27 percent, a 10 percent de- cline from the 0.30 percent averaged by the previous government. Michael Chong That generation of Canadians and called out the government their parents who fought in the on this failure. About Canada’s ODA war—the greatest generation—un- target number, he wrote in a report y family knows first-hand derstood all too well the price paid submitted to the government, “Cana- M that foreign policy matters. to defend our interests and values. da has never come close to that num- Thankfully, we no longer live in an At the start of the Second World War, ber, and if our rate this year looks era of war between great powers. a young Chinese boy and his family slightly better than last year’s, it is May it remain that way. were among the Hong Kongers liv- only because the GNI number is stag- nant, if not declining. Despite this re- ing in fear of an attack. They were de- That generation understood some- cord, Canadians think of their coun- fended by two regiments of Canadian thing we have forgotten. They under- try as generous, and deeply engaged soldiers, some two thousand in all. In stood that foreign policy is more than on the international front.” the ensuing battle, half were killed or just words. They understood that what wounded. The surviving Canadians Canada says on the world stage must anada has failed to live up to were taken as prisoners of war, suffer- be matched with action. They under- our military commitments to ing under horrific conditions for four stood Canada’s word must be its bond. C the NATO alliance. We have long years. Their families back home If we are to defend our interests—our a longstanding pledge to spend 2 per- had no word on what happened to citizens, our economy, our sovereign- cent of GDP on our military. That them—they simply disappeared. ty—our words must be matched with commitment has not been met since action. So, too, if we are to project our the 1980s. Currently, Canada spends At the end of the war, an infant Dutch values—a belief in democratic institu- only half that, ranking 20th out of 29 girl and her family were among the tions, human rights and freedoms, the NATO members. millions in the Netherlands liberated rule of law—in places like Ukraine and by Canadian soldiers, some 7,500 of Many Canadians cherish the idea of , and in solidarity with peoples whom never returned home, perish- Canada as a peacekeeping nation. The such as the Uyghurs and Tibetans in ing in the canals, fields and villages current government played to that China. of Holland. That Dutch girl and that sentiment with a big commitment in the 2015 election to resurrect Canadi- Chinese boy from Hong Kong were Unfortunately, that has not been the an peacekeeping. my parents. case in recent years, and there is plen- ty of blame to go around. Canadians It sent hundreds of peacekeepers to Like millions after the war, they came believe their government generous Mali. As in other matters with this to Canada to build a new life. He was in foreign aid. The facts say other- government, these efforts were made a Queen’s University med student at wise. For decades, Canada has not for a short time, barely a year. The Hotel Dieu Hospital in Kingston, and come close to meeting its official de- government then lost interest and she was a nurse. They met, got mar- velopment assistance (ODA) target the mission ended. One year later ried and raised a family. They raised us to spend 0.70 percent of Gross Na- there was a coup and the Malian gov- to believe in Canada and what it stood tional Income (GNI) on foreign aid. ernment replaced by a military junta. for. They taught us to remember the The closest Canada has ever come to The Liberal government has offered price of freedom. meeting this target was 0.49 percent, little but bromides.

Policy 39 quence to threatening Canadian in- terests and undermining our values. Meeting our commitments takes re- sources. Foreign policy costs mon- ey. It costs money to meet ODA com- mitments. It costs money to meet our military and security commitments. It costs money to have diplomatic mis- sions around the world and a presence on the ground. To pay for all of this re- quires a robust economic plan. In a dif- ferent way, former Foreign Affairs Min- ister Chrystia Freeland acknowledged the link between foreign policy and the economy in her June 2017 speech in the House of Commons. She cited the rise of populism and its distrust of the global economy as one of the two Paul Wing-Nien Chong and Cornelia de Haan at their wedding in Drachten, the Netherlands on big challenges in foreign policy. She October 1, 1969. He was a Chinese kid from Hong Kong defended by Canadians in its capture by Japan in 1941 and she was a baby in Holland when the Canadians liberated her country in 1944. pointed to the government’s econom- When they grew up, both emigrated to Canada where they met and fell in love. Photo courtesy ic plan as the solution. After five years Michael Chong in power, we can judge the record.

In the 1980s, Canada provided more sions jumped to 729 megatonnes. The Canadian economy was in trou- than a tenth of all UN peacekeeping Canada’s emissions are increasing, yet ble before the pandemic hit. Our pro- forces deployed throughout the world. the government said in last Septem- ductivity, the only long-term determi- Currently, that number has declined ber’s throne speech it will not only nant of prosperity, had been lagging to less than 0.1 percent. Perhaps the meet the Paris target, it will exceed for years. Per capita GDP was flat, if world has changed, and the tradition- it. Canada’s emissions may decline in not declining, in the quarters before al model of peacekeeping that once so 2020 because of the pandemic’s eco- the pandemic hit. Canadian house- engaged Canada no longer exists—but nomic fallout. But to paraphrase Bob holds had some of the highest debt the larger context suggests a failure to Rae, just as declining national income levels in the world. The economic fall- live up to our commitments. is no way to meet our ODA commit- out of the pandemic has only made ments, it is also no way to meet our things worse. The OECD and the IMF On climate change, Canada has climate change targets. Where once predict that Canada will have a deeper missed every target in every interna- Canada met its commitments—to recession and a slower recovery than tional agreement to which it is a sig- our economic peers. natory—unlike our record decades ago NATO, to the environment—it no on acid rain and the ozone layer. We longer does. While no country is per- All this makes for a sobering reali- missed the target set out in the Kyo- fect, a clear pattern emerges from our ty check. If we are going to do bet- to Protocol. We missed the target set recent record on foreign aid, military, ter in defending Canada’s interests out in the Copenhagen Accord. And peacekeeping and climate change. and promoting our values around the world, we have to have a clear- we are on track to missing the target The world is taking note of the dis- eyed and accurate assessment of our set out in the Paris Accord. According connect between our words and our record. And we have to have an am- to Climate Transparency, a coalition deeds. Canada lost the vote for the of international climate groups, Can- bitious and robust plan to create the UN Security Council seat last June. prosperity that will pay for a projec- ada’s per capita greenhouse gas emis- It got 108 votes, six fewer than it got sions are the highest in the G20, high- tion of Canadian values and a de- a decade ago. That is six fewer coun- er than even the United States. fence of Canadian interests. tries in the world today that see Can- That generation who defended The current government came to of- ada as a leader on the world stage. and liberated my parents under- fice with loud denunciations of the That is a quantitative indictment of stood that Canada’s word must be previous government’s record on cli- the government’s foreign policy. Our mate change, promising to do much failure to meet our commitments its bond. They also understood that better. The facts say otherwise. In means we are not taken as seriously words must be matched with action.

2016, the first full year the current as we once were. Canada is becom- Lest we forget. government was in office, emissions ing a pawn in the global chess match Michael Chong, the Conservative Foreign were 708 megatonnes. In 2018, the between great power rivals, who have Affairs critic, is the MP for Wellington- last year for which we have data, emis- concluded that there is little conse- Halton Hills.

January—February 2021 40

Column / Don Newman Playing the Prediction Game: An Election in 2021 When Don Newman couches his There will be a budget in March con- to restart the economy, and how a predictions with qualifiers about firming the Liberals’ spending plans party with people in it who oppose how predictions are for suckers, we that will also serve as the party’s vaccinations will be able to conquer advise readers to recall that he pre- election platform. The decisive vari- COVID-19. On their right flank they dicted that Donald J. Trump would able on the timing of an election call will also face a challenge on the prai- is not the huge amount of spend- win the 2016 election. ries from the Mustang party, a west- ing or the size of the deficit but the ern separatist group that formed after ith all due respect to the availability of the COVID-19 vaccine the last election when voters in Alber- theme of this issue of Pol- and the distribution of it across the ta and Saskatchewan excluded them- W icy, predicting the year country. If that goes well—if some selves from representation in the Lib- ahead can be a mug’s game. One year Canadians have been vaccinated and eral government. Now they want to ago, who could have foreseen that most others can see they too will be separate their landlocked provinces COVID-19 would transform life as soon—the timing will be right for from Canada, a dubious proposition we know it—not just in Canada but the Liberals to invite Canadians to at best. While they are unlikely to win across the world? make a trip to the polls. any seats, they will take votes from Conservative candidates. But as we bid farewell to 2020, there hen the election is called, is an optimism in the air that one or the Liberals should be in Three other parties will win seats in more of the vaccines either just start- W a strong position. They an election this year: The New Demo- ing to be distributed or still in trial will run on the myriad programs the crats, the Greens and the Bloc Québé- will provide protection for most peo- government rolled out as COVID-19 cois. The most important of these is ple as they are rolled out and 2021 hit and the stability they helped to the Bloc. How many seats the Bloc unfolds. So with that hope in mind, maintain as the economy collapsed. wins will determine whether there is and the promise that as 2021 pro- And now the Liberals claim to have a a majority or minority government. gresses things are actually going to plan to restore the economy through The New Democrats have been in de- get better, it is time to make what massive investment in environmen- cline for the last two elections and surely will be a rather safe predic- tally friendly infrastructure develop- the Greens remain a special-inter- tion: That the New Year will be an ment, plus investments in education, est party with just three seats in the election year in Canada. high tech and artificial intelligence. House of Commons. And they have a new sherpa to guide By April, when the minority Liberal the transition. Michael Sabia, the As I said, forecasting what will hap- government will be a year and a half former head of the Caisse de Dépôt pen in the coming year is a mug’s into their second year, Prime Min- pension investment fund in Quebec, game, but somebody has to play it. I ister Justin Trudeau and his team who was also in a series of C-suite po- predict that in 2021, the Liberals will will be looking for the ideal time to sitions at Canadian National, BCE, again be elected to be the govern- try for an election that will provide the Canada Infrastructure Bank and, ment of Canada. Only some failure them with a majority. With a com- earlier in his career, the federal public of the vaccines to combat COVID-19 mitment to distribute vaccines effi- service, has been parachuted back to might prevent that. You can take it to ciently and effectively and promis- Finance as deputy minister to run the the bank. es of virtually unlimited spending of post-pandemic recovery. borrowed money to restart the pan- Columnist Don Newman, Executive demic-stricken economy, the Lib- As usual, the Conservatives will be the Vice President of Rubicon Strategies erals should be in a good place to only viable national opposition to the in Ottawa, is a lifetime member of make a run at the extra seats they Liberals. But they will have to explain Parliamentary Press Gallery, and author need to govern uninterrupted for an- what programs they would cancel, of the bestselling memoir, Welcome other four years. which spending they would not make to the Broadcast.

Policy 41 Book Reviews analysis of humankind’s ambivalent tegic uses, calculations and outcomes relationship with war—and why, of war throughout history. Some of despite enormous pain and cost, we the leaders she cites include Alexan- continue to fight each other. der the Great, Roman general Fabius Maximus, Napoleon, Louis XIV, and This is a remarkable book that Mac- Vladimir Ilyich Lenin. With equal Millan, who divides her time as a facility, she draws from campaigns historian and scholar between the including the Peloponnesian War, University of Toronto and Oxford (al- the seminal Battle of Kosovo of 1389, ways defining herself as Canadian), is the Franco-Prussian War, the Span- uniquely qualified to write. ish-American War, and, of course, the It grew out of an invitation to give First and Second World Wars. the BBC’s prestigious Reith Lectures None of this is to suggest that Mac- series in London two years ago. But Millan is anything less than appalled in many ways, it has been percolating by war. Rather, she believes that the through close to two decades during best way to prevent—or at least limit which she has produced five inter- the scope of—future wars is to regard nationally successful, critically-ac- them as a continuing danger rather claimed books, almost all of which than the happenstance result of an deal with some aspect of conflict. A Historian ‘At unlikely confluence of events. the Height of Her he publication in 2003 of Paris The relative peace that Western coun- T 1919—her extraordinarily de- tries and some others have enjoyed Literary Powers’ tailed rendering of the people, circum- since the end of the Second World stances, strategies and motivations War in 1945 has, she suggests, led to Margaret MacMillan driving the peace talks at the end of the dangerous belief that this is the the First World War—first showed her norm, and war the exception, which War: How Conflict Shaped Us. ability to mix deft, deeply researched leads to complacency. “With new Penguin-Random House Canada/ storytelling with shrewd, well-rea- and terrifying weapons, the growing October 2020 soned insights. Now, in War, (recently importance of artificial intelligence, chosen as one of the New York Times’ automated killing machines and cy- Review by 10 best Books of 2020) MacMillan ef- ber war, we face the prospect of the Anthony Wilson-Smith fectively draws together all the lessons end of humanity itself,” she writes. and information she has absorbed in espite such justifiably gloomy ar, the iconic 19th century her many years of studying the sub- prose, this is a hard book to put Prussian military theorist Carl ject. Brimming with supporting anec- D W down. While I can’t claim to be an ac- von Clausewitz famously observed, dotes and insights, she makes the case quaintance of MacMillan’s, I’ve been “is a continuation of politics by oth- that the wish to fight is hard-wired at a number of small social occasions er means.” Or, if you prefer the same into human nature. And, as MacMil- lan observes, war “brings both de- over the years where she has been a sentiment differently phrased, con- featured guest. In person, she is crisp, sider Mao Tse-Tung: “Politics is war struction and creation”—even as we choose to ignore the latter because engaged, engaging in her opinions, without blood, while war is politics but always looking to absorb infor- with blood.” it’s an inconvenient truth. Canada, despite a terrible human toll, emerged mation and opinions from others. Either way, the point is the same: while with more autonomy from Great Brit- Her writing reflects those qualities. we like to think of taking up weapons ain at the end of the First World War; Just turning 77 (on December 23), as an unnatural step, doing so has been and came out of the Second World MacMillan is, if anything, only now as much a part of human behaviour as War more prosperous, industrially ad- at the height of her literary powers. other, more peaceful means for as long vanced and with a whole new set of “It is not,” she concludes, “the time to as we have been on this earth. social programs. War has also led to avert our eyes from something we may The reality, as the internationally re- enormous technological and medical find abhorrent. We must, more than nowned Canadian historian Margaret advances. Among them: penicillin, ever, think about war.” Few people are MacMillan observed recently, is that blood transfusions, jet engines, and better able to deliver that message—or

very often the act of going to war computers—alongside, of course, the more convincing in doing so. creation of fearsome weaponry, in- ‘is calculating, not impulsive.’ That Contributing Writer Anthony Wilson- cluding the atomic bomb. is one of the hard truths underlying Smith, President and CEO of Historica War: How Conflict Shaped Us, Mac- MacMillan outlines, with extraordi- Canada, is also a former editor in chief Millan’s concise, vividly compelling nary sweep and scope, the many stra- of Maclean’s.

January—February 2021 42 leading the western alliance peaceful- ada needed an exemption for culture, ly and cohesively through the cata- Baker interjected in his inimitable clysmic events of the early 1990s—the Texan twang “Derek, in Texas we call fall of the Berlin Wall, the collapse of shugah (sugar) cultcha (culture)!” the Soviet Union and the unification of Germany. They also gained unique The sticking point for Canada was a support from the United Nations to binding dispute settlement mecha- drive Saddam Hussein out of Kuwait nism. We had signaled firmly that with a multinational coalition that in- we would not conclude an agreement cluded Canada. without it. Ultimately, and literally at the eleventh hour, and after receiving Baker and Bush Sr. were very close a direct phone call from Prime Min- friends, but also competitors, a friend- ly rivalry nurtured through years of ister Mulroney, Baker burst into the spirited tennis matches. When they small office next to his at Treasury differed, Bush was known to quip “If where the core Canadian group was you’re so smart, how come you’re not assembled. He flung a piece of paper the president?” at me and, as the authors recount, declared “There is your goddamn dis- Baker believed that “the point of hold- pute settlement mechanism. Now can ing power is to get things done,” a view Iron Fist in I send our report to Congress?” After that was the “currency of the realm in a Velvet Glove the Washington of Baker’s era.” His quickly scanning his terse note, we strong suit was deal-making. He also gave it a thumbs up. had a knack to recruit top-flight, high- Peter Baker he second engagement came ly talented and steadfastly loyal lieu- and Susan Glasser tenants to support his objectives. He T when I served as Ambassador in knew how to get results domestically Washington from 1989-93 and Bak- The Man Who Ran Washington: er was secretary of state. The Bush The Life and Times of James A. and globally, which is no doubt why Barack Obama’s national security ad- administration had announced that Baker III. visor, Tom Donilon, described him as it intended to negotiate a free trade Doubleday/Penguin Random “the most important unelected (Amer- agreement with Mexico. Alarm bells House, September 2020 ican) official since WWII.” rang in Ottawa given the threat this could pose to the preferential Review by hile his career was not without status we had just established with W high-stakes drama, Baker’s per- the United States. Despite some free Derek H. Burney sonal life had the makings of a book trade fatigue in Ottawa, including all its own. In 1973, three years after ased on a seven-year marathon around the cabinet table, I was in- his beloved first wife, Mary Stuart, structed to request formally that of prodigious research and inter- died of cancer, Baker and her best B Canada be included in what became views, New York Times columnist Peter friend, Susan, married. The scene of NAFTA. I did so directly with Bak- Baker (no relation to the subject) and Susan letting Jim Baker know where er, invoking the close personal ties his spouse, Susan Glasser of the New his late wife had left a parting letter Yorker, have compiled a long over- for him, the details of that letter, and between President Bush and Prime due biography of James A. Baker—The the partnership Jim and Susan Baker Minister Mulroney. Ultimately, Bak- Man Who Ran Washington—that is forged in the decades since—having er and President Bush agreed. rich in insights and lessons about how added a daughter of their own to his The Baker-Glasser book chronicles the “indispensable man” made gov- four children and her three—help to ernment in Washington work. how Baker used networking, tacti- humanize a man known more for his cal prowess, a streak of crafty, deter- Baker set the gold standard for what head than his heart. mined negotiating skills and a little was then viewed by insiders as the I had two memorable engagements luck to advance American interests. second most-powerful job in Wash- with Jim Baker. When he was desig- The unique skills of Jim Baker were ington when he served as Ronald Rea- nated by President Reagan to salvage essential in delivering great things for gan’s first chief of staff, establishing the free trade negotiations that had America and for two very different order in what was initially a chaotic been suspended in September 1987, presidents. White House and focus and discipline I was given the same responsibility across the administration. He cleverly by Prime Minister Brian Mulroney. Policy Magazine Contributing Writer sidelined or outfoxed internal rivals Along with our teams, we negotiated Derek H. Burney was chief of staff to and rapidly became the go-to man in intensely over three days in Washing- Prime Minister Brian Mulroney during Washington. ton just before the administration’s the negotiation of the Canada-US As secretary of state, Baker and pres- fast-track authority to conclude the Free Trade Agreement in 1987, and ident George H.W. Bush “managed trade negotiation was due to expire at Canadian ambassador to the United the most tumultuous period in inter- midnight, October 3rd. At one point, States during the NAFTA negotiations national politics since World War II,” when I explained carefully why Can- of 1991-92.

Policy Kelly Sikkema, Unsplash photo 1st Lt. Lauren Warner, Flickr photo

Please Support Canada’s Charities— an Open Letter to All Members of Parliament

Dear Members of Parliament, I’m writing to encourage you to provide additional funding for thousands of Cost of eliminating charities across the country and the millions of Canadians whom they serve. the capital gains tax

The removal of the capital gains tax on donations of private company shares and real estate to registered charities would create continuous benefits. The cost to the federal treasury would be $ literally a drop in the bucket, and the benefits would be positive many times over.

Long advocated by the charitable sector, this would cost the government only a foregone 50 MILLION PER YEAR $50 million a year, while stimulating at least $200 million a year in donations to healthcare, educational, arts and cultural, religious and community organizations, creating hope and help where it is much needed and, not least, creating many new jobs along the way. Benefit to Good work and good works would be the result; good work being the jobs created and good Canadians in need works being the social and economic benefits to Canadians in need of help. Thousands of charities and millions of Canadians need help more than ever during the $ pandemic. They’ll need help even more later on during the recovery. This isn’t about a tax break for the rich. It’s about enabling Canadian charities to hire thousands of Canadians and 200 help millions of their fellow Canadians in need. MILLION PER YEAR

As the new year begins, the best opportunity for the government to help will come with the spring budget. Create hope and I hope this letter is helpful in encouraging you to support the removal of the capital gains tax help where it is much on such gifts. It would be good public policy for an entirely non-partisan purpose, needed, and and good for all Canadians.

Thank you for taking the time to consider this. And many thanks for your service to your province and our country. Jobs Yours sincerely, IN THE CHARITABLE SECTOR

Donald K. Johnson, O.C., LL.D. Director, Toronto General & Western Hospital Foundation Chair, Vision Campaign, Toronto Western Hospital Member, Advisory Board, Ivey Business School, Western University Chairman Emeritus & Director, Business / Arts Member, 2020 Major Individual Giving Cabinet, United Way Greater Toronto