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BANKING AND FINANCE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES NORA SRZENTID 2013 Advisor Prof.dr. Michael Frömmel Submitted to the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration of Ghent University in Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor in Economic Sciences. BANKING AND FINANCE IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES by NORA SRZENTID 2 DOCTORAL JURY Prof. dr. Marc De Clercq (Ghent University, Dean) Prof. dr. Patrick Van Kenhove (Ghent University, Academic Secretary) Prof. dr. Michael Frömmel (Ghent University, Supervisor) Prof. dr. Rudi Vander Vennet (Ghent University) Prof. dr. Koen Schoors (Ghent University) Prof. dr. Jarko Fidrmuc (Zeppelin University) Dr. Franziska Schobert (Deutsche Bundesbank) 3 Acknowledgements If there is one thing that I have learned during my PhD studies, it can be wrapped up as following: you need a good research question, solid data, and the tools to obtain some results which hopefully have acceptable policy implications. So let me apply these notions and check if I got them right. The research question is how one can skip school during the war years and still make it to the doctor degree. As it appears, only data I needed to plug in are the wonderful colleagues and personalities that were surrounding me on my path. Tools boil down to perseverance, hard work and some intellect. Results are satisfying enough for some decent policy proposals: just when you think you had enough and the road leads to nowhere, make a few more steps uphill- there is a big chance a mountain lake or a meadow will open up in front of you. Next, easy paths lead to crowded picnic areas, the difficult ones to the astonishing spaces. And lastly, just as you think you are all alone bearing the burden, there is always a good soul who notices you are stumbling and readily picks you up. As appendix, let me describe my variables. Maybe it is best to start with the core ones that have shown to be reliable in the previous research. My grandparents were the steady roots on which I could develop my branches. My parents were the tree that equipped me with water and mineral nutrients so that I can grow leaves and develop. Oliver is a dew drop that makes me shine and start each new day full of energy. My friends were always full of understanding for my work-life imbalance, and tolerant enough to be there for me at a right time. Even if sometimes I could not offer the same to them. Very special thanks to Philippe, Dries and Nathalie who made those rare free moments enjoyable and gave me strength that I can lean on. I greatly appreciate the warm home atmosphere that Tanja gave me throughout this period, providing a family feeling far away from home. All of my past and present colleagues are equally significant determinant of my success. Firstly, my fellow PhD students and colleagues: Frederick, Selien, Valerie, Glenn, Arnoud, Frederik, Ine, Vivien, Reuben, Garo, Xing, Joris, Julio, Murat, Martien, Maria, Dries and Gert, the best office mate one could wish for. They lent time and energy whenever I needed it; they were there for whatever professional or a human need I had. Equally important was the backup I have obtained from Nathalie and Sabine, who took care of the administrative issues so that I can dedicate fully to the academic activities. Of course, they were always there for a feel-good chat or initiation into different aspects of local culture as well. This PhD would have never been possible if it were not for the Professors Michael Frömmel, Rudi Vander Vennet, Gert Peersman, Koen Schoors, Jarko Fidrmuc and other members of the Faculty. Each one taught me something -some hard facts, some soft skills, others tenderness and hospitality. I hope that our paths in the future converge forever, because this guarantees me the shoulders to stand on. 4 My co-authors are to be thanked for the success of all of my working and published papers. Katja, Markus, Michael and Oleh made the better part of the dream team, whereas I was merely learning from them and trying to find my place under the research umbrella. Thanks for the patience, knowledge and skills you have shared with me: this thesis is the result of the shared endeavor and testifies that independent research makes much more fun and yields far better results when conducted jointly. The memorable experiences I have collected during the studies entail the visits I had at different institutions, which kept me updated with the situation in the industry and gave me ideas for my academic research. Dr. Markus Eller prepared my stay at the Österreichiesche National Bank in a way that I could effectively accomplish set goals, and contributed to my work and well being so that this research visit turned into a very pleasant lasting memory. Dr. Franziska Schobert and her colleagues at the Deutsche Bundesbank surpassed any expectations I had. Her professionalism and hospitality made my internship both successful and enjoyable and therefore I owe her immense gratitude. Prof.dr. Danijela Milos invited me to the Faculty of Economics and Business Administration at the University of Zagreb and organized a cordial welcome that made me feel at home. She provided a platform in which I could gather new ideas, exchange experiences and share my thoughts freely in a both academic but also a friendly setting, for which I owe her my deep appreciation and gratitude. I dedicate this PhD to my Mum Branka Rumora, whose support in every sense of the word was indispensable for the success of this project…and everything else in my life. Water is muddy when you start digging a well, but it gets clearer as the time passes by. 5 Nederlandstalige samenvatting Motivatie De ontwikkelingen in de Midden- en Oost-Europese (CEE) landen zijn een erg populair onderzoeksonderwerp in bijna elk aspect van de economische theorie. Hervormingen die in de laatste twee decennia plaatsvonden in de regio bieden overvloed van hypothesen die kunnen getest worden, en bijna een natuurlijk experiment set-up die onderzoekers kunnen gebruiken om de moderne theorieën tegen de nieuwe gegevens te beoordelen. In dit opzicht, thesis ontwikkelt nieuwe benaderingen van de bestaande praktijken, maar pakt ook sommige bestaande thema's in de nieuwe instelling. Algemene economische omstandigheden in de regio De regio Centraal- en Oost-Europa wandelde een lange weg, beginnend met de macro- economische onevenwichtigheden, beleid onzekerheid en crisis in het laatste decennium van de 20ste eeuw. Daarna een periode van groei, en in de laatste periode soortgelijke problemen als de rest van de Europa. De weg naar het EU-lidmaatschap werd vergezeld door vele hervormingen in zowel economische als politieke systemen. Zij de initiële voorwaarden verschilden, het uitgangspunt was meestal centraal geleide economie en de weg naar marktgerichtheid was niet altijd gemakkelijk. Transformatie hat grondige remake van de instellingen en regels nodig, vergezeld van processen van liberalisering van de markt en de prijzen, decentralisatie, liberalisering van de handel en uitwisseling systeem, privatisering, herstructurering van bedrijven, eigendomsrechten verbetering en een groot aantal bijbehorende voorzieningen. Centrale autoriteiten en planning waren overgestapt voor krachten van de markt en nieuwe verordeningen zijn ingevoerd. Streaming van de buitenlandse investeringen was impliciet geconditioneerd op de eigenschap rechtshandhaving, waarbij een concurrentiële omgeving met een gemakkelijker toegang tot de markt en afrit moest ook worden vastgesteld. Staat eigendom werd vervolgens geprivatiseerd, met verschillende privatisering programma's en met een verschillend succes, variërend van een geval-per-geval verkoopmethode tot massale voucher privatisering. Resterende staatsbedrijven werden geherstructureerd en het bestuur heeft verbeterd. In de loop van de transformatie, de prijs en de markten waren ook geliberaliseerd, en lijken op systemen van het "oude Europa". De uitwisseling en handel systeem liberalisering vergezelt de uitwisseling van kapitaal. De ontwikkeling van kapitaalmarkten en andere niet-bancaire financiële instellingen bleef echter enigszins smal in de meeste van de landen van de regio. 6 Het is ook belangrijk om op te merken dat de heterogeniteit in de regio gebleven is, zodat we niet altijd alle landen onder de dezelfde noemer kunnen stellen. Economische prestaties, financiële voorwaarden en andere indicatoren verschillen tussen de CEE landen, net zoals er verschillen tussen de West-Europese landen bestaan. Financiën en bankieren in de CEE landen Genoemde economische groei kwam in wisselwerking met de ontwikkeling in de financiële sector van de regio. Financiële sector bezorgde diensten die handel, risicobeheer, mobiliseren van spaargelden en toezicht vergemakkelijkt. De overgang van mono-bank systeem naar commerciële bankieren die we nu observeren is getuige geweest van vele proeven en fouten. De eerste liberalisering met soepele toegangsvoorwaarden, zwakke toezicht en het gebrek aan know-how bracht mee probleem van de slechte leningen, bank mislukkingen en ernstige financiële crisis in sommige landen. Golf van consolidatie en harde budgettaire beperkingen voor banken, samen met optreden van de buitenlandse banken bracht bankieren in de regio tot een meer duurzame niveau zij het met een hoge groei van de kredietverlening. Onderzoek heeft aangetoond dat buitenlandse banken kunnen de toegang tot de internationale kapitaalmarkten verbeteren, concurrentie stimuleren en efficiëntie verbeteren, geavanceerde bancaire technologie en risicobeheer introduceren, en kunnen zelfs tot de betere financiële infrastructuur en regelgeving brengen. Ondanks de genoemde mogelijke voordelen van buitenlandse bank entry, sterke aanwezigheid van buitenlandse banken in de CEE regio bezorgde over de hogere besmetting risico's tijdens de meest recente crisis. Dit heeft geleid tot de vorming van het Vienna initiatief waarin publieke en private sector: toezichthouders, centrale banken en fiscale autoriteiten uit host en binnenlandse landen van belangrijkste grensoverschrijdende banken en ambtenaren van de EU en de internationale financiële instellingen samenkomt om de wanordelijke deleveraging en credit crunch te voorkomen.
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