eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory

Hurricane Douglas Information from NHC Advisory 25A, 8:00 AM HST Sun July 26, 2020 On the forecast track, Douglas will pass near, or over, the islands from to today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the islands.

Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 90 mph Position Relative to 90 mi E of Kahului Speed: (Cat 1) Land: 185 mi ESE of Honolulu Hawaii near, or over, the islands Est. Time & Region: from Maui to Kauai today and tonight Min Central Pressure: 987 mb Coordinates: 20.9 N, 155.0 W

Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 85 mph 105 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 16 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (Cat 1)

Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Douglas moving near, or over, the islands from Maui to Kauai today and tonight. To illustrate the uncertainty in Douglas’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of Maui County today, on by this afternoon, and on Kauai and Niihau tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are imminent across the Big Island. Due to the steep terrain, hurricane-force wind gusts are possible even within the tropical storm warning area. ■ Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially destructive surf along exposed shores. The combination of higher than predicted water levels, dangerous , and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center of Douglas. ■ Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from early this morning into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the greatest amounts up to 15 inches in elevated terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides, as well as rapid water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island..

Forecast Track for Hurricane Douglas Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Douglas

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Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours - is in effect for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, Oahu, Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau. A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours - is

in effect for Hawaii County. A Tropical Storm Watch - that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours - is in effect for Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from, Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef. Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

Wind Speed Probabilities and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds The graphic at lower left shows Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities through 2 AM HST Wednesday July 29. It shows probabilities of sustained (1 -minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph). These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years.

The graphic at lower right shows the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely.

New Potential A broad area of low pressure associated with a is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing a wide area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward around 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depressions is likely to form within the next few days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

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