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Hurricane Douglas eVENT Hurricane Tracking Advisory Hurricane Douglas Information from NHC Advisory 25A, 8:00 AM HST Sun July 26, 2020 On the forecast track, Douglas will pass near, or over, the islands from Maui to Kauai today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the islands. Intensity Measures Position & Heading U.S. Landfall (NHC) Max Sustained Wind 90 mph Position Relative to 90 mi E of Kahului Hawaii Speed: (Cat 1) Land: 185 mi ESE of Honolulu Hawaii near, or over, the islands Est. Time & Region: from Maui to Kauai today and tonight Min Central Pressure: 987 mb Coordinates: 20.9 N, 155.0 W Trop. Storm Force Est. Max Sustained 85 mph 105 miles Bearing/Speed: WNW or 285 degrees at 16 mph Winds Extent: Wind Speed: (Cat 1) Forecast Summary ■ The NHC forecast map (below left) and the wind-field map (below right), which is based on the NHC’s forecast track, both show Douglas moving near, or over, the islands from Maui to Kauai today and tonight. To illustrate the uncertainty in Douglas’s forecast track, forecast tracks for all current models are shown on the wind-field map in pale gray. ■ Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of Maui County today, on Oahu by this afternoon, and on Kauai and Niihau tonight. Tropical Storm conditions are imminent across the Big Island. Due to the steep terrain, hurricane-force wind gusts are possible even within the tropical storm warning area. ■ Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially destructive surf along exposed shores. The combination of higher than predicted water levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center of Douglas. ■ Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from early this morning into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the greatest amounts up to 15 inches in elevated terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides, as well as rapid water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.. Forecast Track for Hurricane Douglas Forecast Wind-field for Hurricane Douglas © Copyright 2020 Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. All rights reserved: No part of this publication may be reproduced, disseminated, distributed, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or otherwise transferred in any form or by any means, whether electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc. Some information contained in this document may be compiled from third party sources and Willis Towers Watson Hazard and damage potential maps (as defined below) does not guarantee and is not responsible for the accuracy of such. This document is for general information only and is not intended to be relied upon. Any action based on or in connection with anything contained herein produced by Willis are based on numerical should be taken only after obtaining specific advice from independent professional advisors of your choice. The views expressed in this document are not necessarily those of Willis Limited / Willis Re Inc., its parent companies, sister companies, subsidiaries or affiliates, Willis Towers Watson PLC and all member companies thereof (hereinafter collectively, “Willis Towers Watson”). Willis Towers Watson is not responsible for the accuracy or completeness of the contents herein and modeling results from Kinetic Analysis expressly disclaims any responsibility or liability, based on any legal theory, for damages in any form or amount, based upon, arising from or in connection with for the reader's application of any of the contents herein to any analysis or other Corporation. matter, or for any results or conclusions based upon, arising from or in connection with the contents herein, nor do the contents herein guarantee, and should not be construed to guarantee, any particular result or outcome. Willis Towers Watson accepts no responsibility for the content or quality of any third party websites that are referenced. Kinetic Analysis Corporation's (KAC) real-time hazard and impact forecast information is provided "as is" and without warranties as to performance or any other warranties whether expressed or implied. The user is strongly cautioned to recognize that natural hazards modeling and analysis are subject to many uncertainties. These uncertainties include, but are not limited to, the uncertainties inherent in weather and climate, incomplete or inaccurate weather data, changes to the natural and built environment, limited historical records, and limitations in the state of the art of modeling, as well as limits to the scientific understanding of storm weather phenomena. Anyone making use of the hazard and impact information provided by KAC, or the information contained within, assumes all liability deriving from such use, and agrees to "hold harmless" any and all agencies or individuals associated with its creation. The user agrees to provide any subsequent users of this data with this disclaimer. The publication of the material contained herein is not intended as a representation or warranty that this information is suitable for any general or particular use. Coastal Watches and Warnings A Hurricane Warning – meaning that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours - is in effect for Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe, Oahu, Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau. A Tropical Storm Warning – meaning that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours - is in effect for Hawaii County. A Tropical Storm Watch - that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours - is in effect for Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from, Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef. Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument should monitor the progress of this system. Wind Speed Probabilities and Most Likely Arrival Time of Tropical Storm Force Winds The graphic at lower left shows Tropical-Storm-Force Wind Speed Probabilities through 2 AM HST Wednesday July 29. It shows probabilities of sustained (1 -minute average) surface wind speeds equal to or exceeding 34 kt (39 mph). These wind speed probabilities are based on the official National Hurricane Center (NHC) track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts, and on NHC forecast error statistics for those forecast variables during recent years. The graphic at lower right shows the time before or after which the onset of tropical-storm-force winds is equally likely. New Tropical Cyclone Potential A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. This system is producing a wide area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward around 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development and a tropical depressions is likely to form within the next few days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...70 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Contact us Roy Cloutier Mahesh Shinde roy.cloutier@ willistowerswatson.com [email protected] 2 .
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