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Thesis Organization View metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk brought to you by CORE provided by Calhoun, Institutional Archive of the Naval Postgraduate School Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection 2012-03 The Strategic Alternatives of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Disruption of Maritime Traffic in the Arabian Gulf as a result of Iranian Threats to Close the Strait of Hormuz. Al-Kaabi, Mohamed K. Monterey, California. Naval Postgraduate School http://hdl.handle.net/10945/6760 NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY, CALIFORNIA THESIS THE STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES OF THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC): DISRUPTION OF MARITIME TRAFFIC IN THE ARABIAN GULF AS A RESULT OF IRANIAN THREATS TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ by Mohamed K. Al-Kaabi March 2012 Thesis Co-Advisors: Robert E. Looney Abbas Kadhim Approved for public release: distribution is unlimited THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704–0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching existing data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202–4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, Paperwork Reduction Project (0704–0188) Washington DC 20503. 1. AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED March 2012 Master’s Thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE The Strategic Alternatives of the Gulf Cooperation 5. FUNDING NUMBERS Council (GCC): Disruption of Maritime Traffic in the Arabian Gulf as a result of Iranian Threats to Close the Strait of Hormuz. 6. AUTHOR(S) Mohamed K. Al-Kaabi 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION Naval Postgraduate School REPORT NUMBER Monterey, CA 93943–5000 9. SPONSORING /MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSORING/MONITORING N/A AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S. Government. IRB Protocol number ______N/A______. 12a. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT 12b. DISTRIBUTION CODE Approved for public release: distribution in unlimited 13. ABSTRACT (maximum 200 words) The Arabian Gulf is a strategically significant region of the world with regard to the global energy supply chain as well as maritime trade and commerce. For the past three decades, the region and Strait of Hormuz, in particular, have witnessed major crisis, wars, and foreign intervention which lead to undermine the stability, peace, and security of the region. Since the collapse of Saddam’s regime, Iran found propitious opportunity to pursue a regional hegemony. In the name of its national security, nuclear ambitions, and protection of its self-interests, Iran has repeatedly threatened international passage, disrupted maritime shipping and interrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. On the other side, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has pursued a collective security approach to achieve balanced outcomes ensuring free oil flow, supporting stability, and maintaining security in this region. Despite these efforts, the situation remains tumultuous, confrontational and uncertain; therefore, the GCC must consider strategic alternatives to establish regional balance of power, achieve a sustainable stability, and ensure security in the Arabian Gulf region. 14. SUBJECT TERMS. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), Strait of Hormuz, Arabian Gulf, United 15. NUMBER OF Nations Convention on the Law Of the Sea (UNCLOS), global trade, maritime shipping, OPEC, PAGES Petrodollar, Oil revenue, sea lines of communication (SLOC), global interdependency, Disruption, 125 territorial sea, innocent passage, transit passage, Iranian Revolution, Hegemony, Non-Proliferation 16. PRICE CODE Treaty (NPT), International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), nuclear weapons , fragile stability, Khaleejism “Al-Khaljanah in Arabic”, collective security, Joint Defense Agreement, Peninsula Force Shield, Maritime security, alliance. 17. SECURITY 18. SECURITY 19. SECURITY 20. LIMITATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF CLASSIFICATION OF THIS CLASSIFICATION OF ABSTRACT REPORT PAGE ABSTRACT Unclassified Unclassified Unclassified UU NSN 7540–01–280–5500 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 2–89) Prescribed by ANSI Std. 239–18 i THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK ii Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited THE STRATEGIC ALTERNATIVES OF THE GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL (GCC): DISRUPTION OF MARITIME TRAFFIC IN THE ARABIAN GULF AS A RESULT OF IRANIAN THREATS TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ Mohamed K. Al-Kaabi Major, United Arab Emirates Navy B.S., Karachi University, 1998 Submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF ARTS IN NATIONAL SECURITY STUDIES (MIDDLE EAST, SOUTH ASIA, AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA) from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL March 2012 Author: Mohamed K. Al-Kaabi Approved by: Robert E. Looney Thesis Co-Advisor Abbas Kadhim Thesis Co-Advisor Daniel Moran, Ph.D. Chair, Department of National Security Affairs iii THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK iv ABSTRACT The Arabian Gulf is a strategically significant region of the world with regard to the global energy supply chain as well as maritime trade and commerce. For the past three decades, the region and Strait of Hormuz, in particular, have witnessed major crisis, wars, and foreign intervention which lead to undermine the stability, peace, and security of the region. Since the collapse of Saddam’s regime, Iran found propitious opportunity to pursue a regional hegemony. In the name of its national security, nuclear ambitions, and protection of its self-interests, Iran has repeatedly threatened international passage, disrupted maritime shipping and interrupted oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz. On the other side, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has pursued a collective security approach to achieve balanced outcomes ensuring free oil flow, supporting stability, and maintaining security in this region. Despite these efforts, the situation remains tumultuous, confrontational and uncertain; therefore, the GCC must consider strategic alternatives to establish regional balance of power, achieve a sustainable stability, and ensure security in the Arabian Gulf region. v THIS PAGE INTENTIONALLY LEFT BLANK vi TABLE OF CONTENTS I. INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................1 A. MAJOR RESEARCH QUESTION ................................................................1 B. IMPORTANCE ................................................................................................1 C. PROBLEMS AND HYPOTHESES ...............................................................2 D. METHODS AND SOURCES .........................................................................4 E. THESIS OVERVIEW .....................................................................................4 II. THE MOST IMPORTANT GLOBAL CHOKEPOINT “STRAIT OF HORMUZ” ...................................................................................................................9 A. INTRODUCTION............................................................................................9 B. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE STRAIT TO THE ARABIAN GULF REGIONAL COUNTRIES ...........................................................................10 C. THE ARABIAN GULF AT A GLANCE .....................................................11 D. THE GEOGRAPHICAL IMPORTANCE OF THE GLOBAL MARITIME CHOKEPOINTS .....................................................................12 E. MARITIME TRAFFIC IN THE ARABIAN GULF ..................................13 F. THE MOST CRITICAL GLOBAL CHOKEPOINT:THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ.................................................................................................15 G. THE DEVELOPMENT OF UNITED NATIONS CONVENTIONS ON THE LAW OF THE SEA (UNCLOS) AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS FOR INTERNATIONAL STRAITS ............................16 H. THE UNCLOS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ .......................................................................................................18 I. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................20 III. THE REGIONAL AND GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS IN CASE IRAN ATTEMPTS TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ .......................................21 A. INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................21 B. IRAN POSES THREAT TO CLOSE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ .......22 C. THE IRANIAN NUCLEAR PROGRAM ....................................................25 D. REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS.....................................................................27 E. GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS .........................................................................33 F. CONCLUSION ..............................................................................................38 IV. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN IRAN AND THE GCC STATES SINCE THE IRANIAN REVOLUTION ..............................................................................39
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