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2017 Darlington Retail Tables

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2017 Darlington Retail Tables WYG PLANNING DARLINGTON RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY UPDATE 2017 SCENARIO 1: EXPERIAN POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS TABLE 1 (SCENARIO 1): POPULATION AND PER CAPITA EXPENDITURE WITHIN EACH ZONE OF STUDY AREA Population Per Capita Expenditure Convenience 2017 2022 2027 2032 2036 2015 2017 2022 2027 2032 2036 Persons Persons Persons Persons Persons £ per Person £ per Person £ per Person £ per Person £ per Person £ per Person Zone 1 21,477 21,558 21,639 21,623 21,582 2,064 2,050 2,013 2,001 2,003 2,011 Zone 2 26,558 26,857 27,027 27,240 27,452 1,782 1,769 1,738 1,727 1,729 1,736 Zone 3 21,211 21,441 21,565 21,617 21,714 1,933 1,920 1,885 1,874 1,876 1,884 Zone 4 23,032 23,247 23,359 23,500 23,676 1,841 1,828 1,795 1,785 1,786 1,794 Zone 5 17,450 17,746 18,028 18,163 18,260 2,227 2,211 2,172 2,159 2,161 2,169 Zone 6 57,473 58,392 59,270 59,982 60,438 1,872 1,859 1,825 1,814 1,816 1,823 Zone 7 74,801 75,436 75,989 76,328 76,505 2,089 2,074 2,037 2,025 2,027 2,035 Zone 8 38,934 39,682 40,312 40,830 41,279 1,872 1,859 1,826 1,815 1,817 1,824 Zone 9 21,330 21,827 22,300 22,605 22,871 2,083 2,068 2,031 2,019 2,021 2,029 TOTAL 302,266 306,186 309,489 311,888 313,777 Notes: a. Zones based on the following post code sectors 1 - DL3 7, DL3 8, DL3 9 2 - DL1 1, DL1 4, DL1 5 3 - DL1 2, DL1 3 4 - DL3 0, DL3 6 5 - DL2 1, DL2 2, TS21 1 6 - DL4 1, DL4 2, DL5 4, DL5 5, DL5 7, DL17 0, DL17 8, TS21 1 7 - DL2 3, DL6 2, DL7 0, DL8 3, DL8 4, DL8 5, DL9 3, DL9 4, DL10 4, DL10 5, DL10 6, DL10 7, DL11 6, DL12 0, DL12 8, DL12 9 8 - DL14 0, DL14 6, DL14 7, DL14 8, DL14 9 9 - TS15 9, TS16 0, TS16 9 b. Per capita expenditure derived from Experian MMG3 data (2017 report) c. Population derived from Experian MMG3 data (2017 report) d. Per capita expenditure projected forward using forecast growth rates taken from Figure 6 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14, November 2016 e. Expendiure excludes Special Forms of Trading in line with 'adjusted' allowance derived from Figure 5 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14 2015 Prices WYG PLANNING DARLINGTON RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY UPDATE 2017 SCENARIO 1: EXPERIAN POPULATION GROWTH PROJECTIONS TABLE 2a (SCENARIO 1): TOTAL CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE EXPENDITURE GROWTH CONVENIENCE CONVENIENCE 2017 2022 2027 2032 2036 2017-22 2017-27 2017-32 2017-2036 £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m £m Zone 1 44.02 43.40 43.30 43.31 43.40 -0.63 -0.72 -0.71 -0.62 Zone 2 46.99 46.67 46.68 47.10 47.65 -0.32 -0.31 0.11 0.66 Zone 3 40.72 40.43 40.42 40.55 40.90 -0.30 -0.31 -0.17 0.18 Zone 4 42.11 41.74 41.69 41.98 42.47 -0.37 -0.42 -0.12 0.36 Zone 5 38.58 38.54 38.91 39.25 39.61 -0.05 0.33 0.66 1.03 Zone 6 106.82 106.58 107.53 108.93 110.20 -0.24 0.72 2.12 3.39 Zone 7 155.15 153.66 153.86 154.70 155.68 -1.48 -1.29 -0.44 0.54 Zone 8 72.39 72.46 73.16 74.18 75.30 0.07 0.78 1.79 2.91 Zone 9 44.11 44.33 45.02 45.68 46.40 0.22 0.91 1.57 2.29 TOTAL 590.88 587.79 590.58 595.68 601.62 -3.09 -0.30 4.80 10.73 TABLE 2b (SCENARIO 1): CONVENIENCE GOODS EXPENDITURE SPLIT BETWEEN MAIN FOOD SHOPPING AND TOP-UP FOOD SHOPPING SPEND EXPENDITURE CONVENIENCE 2017 MAIN TOP-UP TOTAL £m £m £m Zone 1 35.60 8.42 44.02 Zone 2 36.90 10.09 46.99 Zone 3 31.33 9.39 40.72 Zone 4 33.44 8.67 42.11 Zone 5 31.22 7.37 38.58 Zone 6 87.45 19.37 106.82 Zone 7 120.62 34.53 155.15 Zone 8 58.41 13.98 72.39 Zone 9 35.27 8.84 44.11 TOTAL 470.23 120.66 590.88 Notes: a. Zones based on the following post code sectors 1 - DL3 7, DL3 8, DL3 9 2 - DL1 1, DL1 4, DL1 5 3 - DL1 2, DL1 3 4 - DL3 0, DL3 6 5 - DL2 1, DL2 2, TS21 1 6 - DL4 1, DL4 2, DL5 4, DL5 5, DL5 7, DL17 0, DL17 8, TS21 1 7 - DL2 3, DL6 2, DL7 0, DL8 3, DL8 4, DL8 5, DL9 3, DL9 4, DL10 4, DL10 5, DL10 6, DL10 7, DL11 6, DL12 0, DL12 8, DL12 9 8 - DL14 0, DL14 6, DL14 7, DL14 8, DL14 9 9 - TS15 9, TS16 0, TS16 9 b. Per capita expenditure derived from Experian MMG3 data (2017 report) c. Population derived from Experian MMG3 data (2017 report) d. Per capita expenditure projected forward using forecast growth rates taken from Figure 6 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14, November 2016 e. Expendiure excludes Special Forms of Trading in line with 'adjusted' allowance derived from Figure 5 of Experian Retail Planner Briefing Note 14 f. Figures derived from multiplying per capita expenditure by population within each zone using data provided at Table 1 (Scenario 1) 2015 Prices WYG PLANNING DARLINGTON RETAIL CAPACITY STUDY UPDATE 2017 TABLE 3: CONVENIENCE GOODS SHOPPING PATTERNS Total Zone 1 Zone 2 Zone 3 Zone 4 Zone 5 Zone 6 Zone 7 Zone 8 Zone 9 MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP MAIN FOOD TOP UP DESTINATION %%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%%% STUDY AREA Zone 1 Co-operative Food (former Somerfield), Cockerton District Centre, Woodland Road, Darlington 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.5 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Co-operative Food, Cockerton District Centre, West Auckland Road, Darlington 0.3 1.3 0.8 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 11.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Co-operative Food, Fulthorpe Avenue, Mowden Local Centre, Darlington 0.1 0.6 0.8 3.6 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Heron Foods, Cockerton District Centre, Cockerton Green, Darlington 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sainsbury's Local, Duke Street, Darlington 0.2 0.3 3.2 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Local Shops, Cockerton District Centre 0.0 1.5 0.0 17.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Local Shops, Mowden Local Centre 0.0 0.5 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub Total (Zone 1) 0.8 4.4 4.8 37.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 22.1 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.2 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Zone 2 Aldi, Yarm Road Local Centre, Darlington 3.7 2.2 5.2 1.5 14.8 16.9 10.3 3.7 3.7 3.3 10.3 6.6 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 Asda (former Netto), Neasham Road Local Centre, Darlington 0.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 5.5 17.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.7 7.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Farmfoods, Neasham Road Local Centre, Darlington 0.0 1.1 0.0 2.3 0.0 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Iceland, Yarm Road Local Centre, Darlington 0.3 0.3 1.0 0.0 3.1 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Lidl, Yarm Road Local Centre, Darlington 0.6 0.6 2.5 2.3 1.6 5.9 0.0 0.9 1.5 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Marks & Spencer, Northgate, Darlington 1.2 2.1 5.8 3.5 2.5 3.8 2.0 4.3 0.0 7.6 0.8 1.2 1.8 0.8 0.0 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Morrisons, Morton Park, Darlington 9.0 2.0 7.8 0.8 30.0 3.8 21.6 0.9 2.3 3.9 42.9 12.7 1.0 0.0 5.4 2.1 0.0 0.0 3.6 2.3 Sainsbury's Local, Clifton Road, Darlington 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sainsbury's, Victoria Road, Darlington 7.7 3.2 31.0 14.6 21.4 6.6 5.9 1.0 9.5 10.1 11.6 10.3 0.0 0.0 7.1 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 Tesco Express, Cornmill Shopping Centre, Darlington 0.1 0.8 0.0 2.2 0.7 3.8 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 Local Shops, Darlington Town Centre 0.5 4.1 4.0 16.2 1.6 12.0 1.5 13.4 0.0 15.2 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Local Shops, Yarm Road Local Centre 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cornmill Shopping Centre, Darlington 0.1 0.4 0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub Total (Zone 2) 23.8 18.9 57.2 45.0 81.3 89.0 41.3 26.9 17.0 41.2 68.8 46.8 3.3 2.5 13.8 5.9 0.0 1.0 7.0 2.3 Zone 3 Asda (former Netto), Haughton Road, Darlington 0.6 1.0 0.0 1.2 0.7 4.4 6.1 8.4 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Asda, Whinfield Local Centre, Whinbush Way, Darlington 4.0 4.1 3.2 1.2 6.9 2.8 29.3 44.4 5.0 1.1 2.5 5.1 2.3 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Co-operative Food, North Road, Darlington 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Morrisons, North Road District Centre, Darlington 10.5 2.5 31.2 7.7 8.7 2.1 20.3 5.3 61.1 14.7 3.8 0.0 3.3 1.4 0.8 0.0 1.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 Local Shops, North Road District Centre 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub Total (Zone 3) 15.2 8.3 34.4 10.2 16.3 9.3 55.7 64.0 67.8 16.9 6.2 7.6 5.7 1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.0 0.0 Zone 4 Iceland, Queen Street, Darlington 0.2 0.3 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 3.2 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sainsbury's Local, Corporation Road, Darlington 0.1 0.7 0.0 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub Total (Zone 4) 0.3 1.0 0.8 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.4 10.3 0.0 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Zone 5 Local shops, Stillington 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Spar, The Green, Hurworth 0.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Co-operative Food, West Park Local Centre, Tillage Green, Darlington 0.0 0.8 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Local Shops, Middleton St George Local Centre 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Sub Total (Zone 5) 0.3 2.0 0.0 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.5 0.7 26.1 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Zone 6 Spar, Church View, Heighington 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Aldi, Greenwell Road, Newton Aycliffe 0.8 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.4 8.9 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 Co-operative Food, Market Place, Ferryhill 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.0
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