DANISH FOREIGN POLICY YEARBOOK 2015 EDITED BY NANNA HVIDT AND HANS MOURITZEN DIIS · DANISH INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES DANISH FOREIGN POLICY YEARBOOK 2015 FOREIGN POLICY DANISH 196 DANISH FOREIGN POLICY YEARBOOK 2015 Edited by Nanna Hvidt and Hans Mouritzen DIIS Danish Institute for International Studies 2015 © Copenhagen 2015 2 DIIS · Danish Institute for International Studies Østbanegade 117, DK-2100 Copenhagen, Denmark Ph: +45 32 69 87 87 Fax: +45 32 69 87 00 E-mail: [email protected] Web: www.diis.dk Editors: Nanna Hvidt ([email protected]) and Hans Mouritzen ([email protected]) Assistant Editor: Anine Kristensen Editorial Advisory Board DANISH FOREIGN POLICY YEARBOOK 2015 FOREIGN POLICY DANISH Clive Archer, Manchester Metropolitan University Hans Branner, Retd. Eric Einhorn, University of Massachusetts Daniel Hamilton, The Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies Christine Ingebritsen, University of Washington, Seattle Tonny Brems Knudsen, University of Aarhus Henrik Larsen, University of Copenhagen Sverre Lodgaard, Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Ove Kai Pedersen, Copenhagen Business School Sten Rynning, University of Southern Denmark Helle Rytkønen, Danish Institute for Study Abroad Bengt Sundelius, Uppsala University Ben Tonra, University College Dublin Linguistic Consultant: Robert Parkin Graphic design: Mark Gry Christiansen Printed in Denmark by Gullanders Bogtrykkeri a-s ISBN (print): 978-87-7605-748-0 ISBN (pdf): 978-87-7605-749-7 ISSN: 1397-2480 DIIS publications can be downloaded free of charge or ordered from www.diis.dk The full text of this book can also be found electronically in EBSCO Publishing’s databases. DANISH FOREIGN POLICY YEARBOOK FOREIGN POLICY DANISH Contents 3 Preface · 5 Chapter 1: Articles · 7 Abstracts in English and Danish · 7 The International Situation and Danish Foreign Policy 2014 · 11 Martin Lidegaard, Minister for Foreign Affairs Danish Defence Policy 150 years after the Defeat of 1864 · 21 Nicolai Wammen, Minister of Defence Rude Awakening: Security Challenges in Northern Europe · 25 Daniel S. Hamilton Assassinations, Office Sex and Climate Change: The Danish Intelligence Community Under Public Scrutiny · 51 Flemming Splidsboel Hansen Responding to Radicalization: Exporting the Dilemmas · 71 Lars Erslev Andersen and Louise Wiuff Moe Coping with a Disorderly World: Denmark and the European External Action Service 2009-2014 · 103 Christine Nissen and Fabrizio Tassinari Chapter 2: Selected Documents · 125 Chapter 3: Danish Foreign Policy in Figures · 171 Chapter 4: Opinion Polls · 177 Chapter 5: Selected Bibliography · 191 PREFACE Preface 5 The Danish Foreign Policy Yearbook is about Danish foreign policy and Denmark’s role in both a regional and a global context. As a novelty, this particular volume presents essays by Denmark’s foreign and defence min- isters about the country’s contemporary challenges and policy. In addition, it includes four scholarly articles, whose authors represent only themselves and their academic expertise (for their titles and affiliations, see each article). Dan Hamilton surveys the Nordic-Baltic security landscape in the wake of the Ukraine conflict and argues that Western governments should sup- plement deterrent approaches with resilience strategies designed to address the disruptive potential of the new situation. Flemming Splidsboel Hansen contributes with a pioneering analysis of the challenges in the post-Snowden world being faced by the Danish intelligence services after the two recent political assassinations in Copenhagen. Lars Erslev Andersen and Louise Wiuff Moe investigate Denmark’s export of its CVE (Countering Violent Extremism) model to the conflict-torn Horn of Africa and highlight dilem- mas and unintended consequences in the process. Five years since its incep- tion, Fabrizio Tassinari and Christine Nissen report on the European Ex- ternal Action Service, examining the extent to which the Danish Foreign Service has adapted to the new European structure and promoted its own national priorities through it. The scholarly articles are abstracted in English and Danish at the start of chapter one. After the articles follows a selection of official documents considered to be characteristic of Danish foreign policy during 2014. This is supplemented by essential statistics as well as some of the most relevant polls on the attitudes of the Danes to key foreign-policy questions. Finally, a bib- liography offers a limited selection of scholarly books, articles and chapters published in English, French or German in 2014 within the field covered by the yearbook. The editors ofDanish Foreign Policy Yearbook are Director Nanna Hvidt and Dr Hans Mouritzen. Anine Kristensen has served as the assistant editor. The Editors DIIS, Copenhagen May 2015 CHAPTER 1 · ARTICLES CHAPTER 1 · Chapter 1 7 Articles Abstracts in English and Danish Rude Awakening: Security Challenges in Northern Europe Daniel S. Hamilton Insecurity has returned to northern Europe, sparked in particular by Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea, the deployment of troops across Ukrainian borders to support Ukrainian separatists, and provocative military activities towards northern European countries. Governments have responded with crisis diplomacy, sanctions, and reinforced efforts at closer defence coopera- tion, yet they are only beginning to supplement deterrent approaches with tailored resilience strategies designed to address the instabilities and disrup- tive potential of the new security landscape. Widespread assumptions about a prolonged period of peace and stability in a “post-Cold War’’ period are giving way to the realization that the post-Soviet succession is likely to be a far more turbulent, challenging and violent historical period than many had cared to admit, with profound yet uncertain implications for security in northern Europe and the Arctic. Nordeuropa er igen blevet usikkert, ikke mindst på grund af Ruslands ulovlige annektering af Krim, dets militære støtte til de ukrainske separatister og dets militære provokationer over for nordeuropæiske lande. Disse lande har svaret med krisediplomati, sanktioner og bestræbelser i retning af et tættere forsvars- samarbejde. De er dog først nu begyndt at supplere afskrækkelsesstrategien med skræddersyede strategier, der skal give øget modstandskraft (‘resilience’) over for 8 ustabilitet og mulig undergravende virksomhed i det nye sikkerhedslandskab. Den udbredte forvisning om en lang freds- og stabilitetsperiode efter den kolde krig er ved at vige pladsen for bevidstheden om, at den post-sovjetiske periode vil blive langt mere turbulent, udfordrende og voldelig, end mange havde forestillet sig og have vidtgående – omend usikre – implikationer for sikkerheden i Nord- europa og Arktis. Assassinations, Office Sex and Climate Change: DANISH FOREIGN POLICY YEARBOOK 2015 FOREIGN POLICY DANISH The Danish Intelligence Community under Public Scrutiny Flemming Splidsboel Hansen The spectacular revelations of US whistleblower Edward Snowden about the activities of the US intelligence community, including its co-operation with foreign partners, caused the Danish media and public to take an increased interest in the work of the two public intelligence services in Denmark. The debate suggests that, while the Danish intelligence culture has developed to become surprisingly robust, favouring an intelligence community that simply delivers, there is also growing concern that core norms may be com- promised in the process. Public trust in the ethical integrity of the intel- ligence community remains high, but uncomfortable questions about the standards of intelligence work are being asked with still greater frequency. Parliamentary control has been strengthened, but it remains weak in relation to comparable countries. Den amerikanske ‘whistleblower’ Edward Snowdens opsigtsvækkende afsløringer af de amerikanske efterretningstjenesters aktiviteter – herunder deres samarbejde med udenlandske partnerinstitutioner – har ført til stigende interesse i danske medier og i offentligheden for det arbejde, som Danmarks to statslige efterret- ningstjenester udfører. Debatten indikerer, at selvom den danske efterretnings- kultur er blevet overraskende robust (som det ses i ønsket om at få ‘leveret varen’), er der også stigende bekymring for, at centrale normer kan blive overtrådt. Den offentlige tillid til efterretningstjenesterne er fortsat høj, men der bliver stadig oftere rejst kritiske spørgsmål. Den parlamentariske kontrol er blevet styrket, men den er fortsat svag i forhold til sammenlignelige lande. CHAPTER 1 · ARTICLES CHAPTER 1 · Responding to Radicalization: Exporting the Dilemmas 9 Lars Erslev Andersen and Louise Wiuff Moe This article examines the background to the development of ‘Countering Violent Extremism’ (CVE) and shows how it has gained traction in the con- text of Danish security governance. The complex entanglement of domestic and global threat perceptions with value-based politics are used to justify giving increased powers to the relevant security and intelligence bodies. The complexities defining contemporary security threats are rescaled to the level of the individual or so-called ‘in risk societies’. This may appear promising in addressing extremism domestically as well as abroad. However, there are important dilemmas and possibly unintended consequences that deserve at- tention. They become particularly evident in the context of recent exports of Danish CVE. This is demonstrated through an analysis of Denmark’s export