DOCSLIB.ORG

The Pennsylvania State University the Graduate School EFFECTS OF

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Pennsylvania State University the Graduate School EFFECTS OF The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School EFFECTS OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION ON THE CYCLOGENESIS OF HURRICANES EMILY (2005) AND FAUSTO (2002) A Thesis in Meteorology by Stephanie E. Zick c 2008 Stephanie E. Zick Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science May 2008 The thesis of Stephanie E. Zick was reviewed and approved∗ by the following: William M. Frank Professor of Meteorology Thesis Advisor Jerry Y. Harrington Associate Professor of Meteorology George Young Professor of Meteorology William H. Brune Professor of Meteorology Head of the Department of Meteorology ∗Signatures are on file in the Graduate School. Abstract Equatorial waves and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) play significant roles in the modulation of tropical convection and development of cyclones in all of the major storm basins. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, case studies are examined for Hurricane Fausto (2002), which formed in the east Pacific during a convectively active phase of the MJO, and Hurricane Emily (2005), which formed in the north Atlantic during a neutral to somewhat convectively inactive phase of the MJO. First, control simulations are run with initial conditions interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Pre- diction/Nation Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis; the model then is reinitialized and run with the statistically correlated components of the MJO removed. Owing to the newness of the procedure, the case studies are run as ensembles to ensure that the results are statistically significant. Four ensemble members, created by varying the model parameter physics, are performed for each simulation. In response to modified intial conditions, both Hurricane Fausto and Hurricane Emily evolve in very different ways. Mechanisms responsible for these differences and how they are related to the MJO are discussed, including the large scale environment, location of formation, storm track, intensity, and structure. Varying physical parameterizations within the ensemble also has significant effects on the storms and is considered in the results. iii Table of Contents List of Figures vi List of Tables viii Acknowledgments x 1 Introduction and Background 1 1.1 Previous Studies of Tropical Cyclogenesis . 2 1.2 Observations of Equatorial Waves . 3 1.3 Characteristics of the MJO . 5 1.4 Previous Studies of Wave Interaction with Tropical Cyclones . 7 1.5 Goals . 10 2 Observational Data and Model Output 16 2.1 Datasets . 16 2.2 Diagnostic analyses . 17 2.3 WRF Model . 17 2.3.1 Model Initialization . 18 2.3.2 Boundary Conditions and Nesting . 18 2.4 Modification of Initial Conditions . 19 2.5 Ensemble Technique . 20 3 Analysis of the MJO’s Influence on Hurricane Fausto - East Pa- cific 24 3.1 Synoptic History . 25 3.2 Analysis of MJO wave structure during cyclogenesis and intensification 25 3.3 Model Domain . 26 3.4 Comparison of Initial Fields . 26 3.5 Evaluation of Genesis Parameters . 28 3.5.1 Dynamic Parameters . 28 iv 3.5.2 Thermodynamic Parameters . 29 3.6 Storm Track . 30 3.7 Storm Intensity . 34 4 Analysis of the MJO’s Influence on Hurricane Emily - North At- lantic 55 4.1 Synoptic History . 55 4.2 Analysis of MJO wave structure during cyclogenesis and intensification 56 4.3 Model Domain . 57 4.4 Comparison of Initial Fields . 57 4.5 Evaluation of Genesis Parameters . 58 4.6 Storm Track . 59 4.7 Storm Intensity . 60 5 Summary and Conclusions 75 5.1 Comparing Intensities in the Case Studies Using a Student’s t-test . 75 5.2 Conclusions . 77 5.3 Future Work . 79 A Large-scale Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameters for Hurricane Fausto 80 B Large-scale Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameters for Hurricane Emily 83 References 86 v List of Figures 1.1 Spectral Bands for Filtering . 12 1.2 Depiction of MJO propagation . 13 1.3 Idealized 3D structure of the MJO . 14 1.4 Composite MJO-filtered anomalies in the northeast Pacific relative to genesis point and date . 15 2.1 Specified and relaxation zones for WRF boundary conditions . 23 3.1 Best track of Hurricane Fausto (from Unisys) . 36 3.2 MJO-filtered OLR anomalies averaged over 0-20N . 37 3.3 MJO-filtered 850 mb wind and 200 mb wind anomalies averaged over 0-20N . 38 3.4 WRF model domain configuration . 39 3.5 Unfiltered OLR and 850 mb wind anomalies at 00Z Aug 20 . 40 3.6 MJO-filtered OLR and 850 mb wind anomalies at 00Z Aug 20 . 41 3.7 Initial 850 mb and 200mb wind difference field for 54 km domain . 42 3.8 Tracks of minimum SLP for 6 km ensemble members . 43 3.9 Comparision of Control and MJO-removed 850mb relative vorticity and 850 mb winds at 00Z Aug 21 . 44 3.10 Ensemble mean tracks of minimum SLP for 6 km control and MJO- removed simulations . 45 3.11 Time series of deep layer mean wind for CEM1 and MEM1 . 46 3.12 Comparison of 200 mb heights, 200 mb winds, and SLP for CEM1 and CEM2 at 12Z Aug 21 . 47 3.13 Comparison of 200 mb heights, 200 mb winds, and SLP for CEM1 and CEM2 at 18Z Aug 21 . 48 3.14 CEM2 3 hr convective 3 hr precipitation ending at a) 00Z Aug 24 and b) 06Z Aug 24 . 49 3.15 CEM2 3 hr convective 3 hr precipitation ending at a) 00Z Aug 24 and b) 06Z Aug 24 . 50 vi 3.16 Timeseries of minimum SLP (mb) for 6 km ensemble members, en- semble mean, and observations . 51 3.17 Comparison of 850 mb relative vorticity for CEM1 and MEM1 . 52 3.18 Comparison of 850 mb relative vorticity for CEM1 and MEM1 . 53 3.19 Comparison of 3 hour convective precipitation for CEM1 and CEM2 54 4.1 Best track of Hurricane Emily (from Unisys) . 62 4.2 MJO-filtered OLR anomalies averaged over 0-20N . 63 4.3 MJO-filtered 850 mb wind and 200 mb wind anomalies averaged over 0-20N . 64 4.4 WRF model domain configuration . 65 4.5 Unfiltered OLR and 850 mb wind anomalies at 00Z Jul 10 . 66 4.6 MJO-filtered OLR and 850 mb wind anomalies (ms −1) at 00Z Jul 10 67 4.7 Initial 850 mb and 200mb wind difference field for 54 km domain . 68 4.8 Tracks of minimum SLP for 6 km ensemble members . 69 4.9 Ensemble mean tracks of minimum SLP for 6 km control and MJO- removed simulations . 70 4.10 Time series of deep layer mean wind for CEM1, MEM1, and CEM2 71 4.11 Timeseries of minimum SLP (mb) for 6 km ensemble members, en- semble mean, and observations . 72 4.12 Comparison of 3 hour convective precipitation for CEM1 and CEM2 73 4.13 Comparison of cross sections of RH for CEM2 and MEM2 . 74 vii List of Tables 2.1 Description of Ensemble Members (EMs) . 21 3.1 Large-scale Dynamical Tropical Cyclogenesis Parameters Averaged over Genesis Area for Ensemble Means . 29 3.2 Large-scale Thermodynamic Tropical Cyclogenesis Parameters Av- eraged Over Genesis Area for Each 6 km Ensemble Mean . 30 4.1 Large-scale Dynamic Tropical Cyclogenesis Parameters Averaged Over Genesis Area for Each 6 km Ensemble Means . 58 4.2 Summary of Appendix Table A.2: Large-scale Thermodynamic Trop- ical Cyclogenesis Parameters Averaged Over Genesis Area at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Mean . 59 5.1 Student T-test P-values and Confidence Intervals for Hurricanes Fausto and Emily . 76 A.1 Large-scale Dynamic Tropical Cyclogenesis Parameters Averaged Over Genesis Area at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member 80 A.2 Large-scale Thermodynamical Tropical Cyclogenesis Parameters Av- eraged over Genesis Area at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member ................................. 81 A.3 Large-scale Divergence Averaged Over 4 degree square Genesis Area at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member . 81 A.4 Large-scale VWS Magnitude and Direction Averaged Over 4, 8, and 12 degree Genesis Areas at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member ................................. 82 B.1 Large-scale Dynamic Tropical Cyclogenesis Parameters Averaged Over 8 degree Square Genesis Area at 00Z Jul 13 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member . 83 viii B.2 Large-scale Thermodynamical Tropical Cyclogenesis Parameters Av- eraged over Genesis Area at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member ................................. 84 B.3 Large-scale Divergence Averaged Over 4 degree square Genesis Area at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member . 84 B.4 Large-scale VWS Averaged Over 4, 8, and 12 degree Genesis Areas at 00Z Aug 21 for Each 6 km Ensemble Member . 85 ix Acknowledgments I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my adviser, Dr. William M. Frank, for his support and direction in this research and to the other members of my committee, Dr. George Young and Dr. Jerry Harrington. I also thank my office mate Jeff Gall for his guidance in the modelling and for many useful discussions. I thanks my parents, Joy and Bob, my brother, Greg, my boyfriend, Jon, and my best friend Brandy, for their continued encouragement and support and love. This work was supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF), grant ATM-0630364. x Chapter 1 Introduction and Background Tropical cyclones form within pre-existing convective regions that are often embedded in larger-scale cyclonic regions such as monsoon troughs, tropical waves, or cyclonic frontal disturbances that move equatorward into the tropics. These cyclonic regions are on a scale much larger than a tropical cyclone core (e.g.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific Ab Sins Nicholas S
    Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Master's Theses Graduate School March 2019 Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific aB sins Nicholas S. Grondin Louisiana State University, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses Part of the Climate Commons, Meteorology Commons, and the Physical and Environmental Geography Commons Recommended Citation Grondin, Nicholas S., "Climatology, Variability, and Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Strikes in the Northeastern and Central Pacific asinB s" (2019). LSU Master's Theses. 4864. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/4864 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Master's Theses by an authorized graduate school editor of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. CLIMATOLOGY, VARIABILITY, AND RETURN PERIODS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE STRIKES IN THE NORTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC BASINS A Thesis Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in The Department of Geography and Anthropology by Nicholas S. Grondin B.S. Meteorology, University of South Alabama, 2016 May 2019 Dedication This thesis is dedicated to my family, especially mom, Mim and Pop, for their love and encouragement every step of the way. This thesis is dedicated to my friends and fraternity brothers, especially Dillon, Sarah, Clay, and Courtney, for their friendship and support. This thesis is dedicated to all of my teachers and college professors, especially Mrs.
    [Show full text]
  • Extension of the Systematic Approach to Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting in the Eastern and Central North Pacific
    NPS ARCHIVE 1997.12 BOOTHE, M. NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL Monterey, California THESIS EXTENSION OF THE SYTEMATIC APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC by Mark A. Boothe December, 1997 Thesis Co-Advisors: Russell L.Elsberry Lester E. Carr III Thesis B71245 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. DUDLEY KNOX LIBRARY NAVAl OSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA 93943-5101 REPORT DOCUMENTATION PAGE Form Approved OMB No. 0704-0188 Public reporting burden for this collection of information is estimated to average 1 hour per response, including the time for reviewing instruction, searching casting data sources, gathering and maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the collection of information. Send comments regarding this burden estimate or any other aspect of this collection of information, including suggestions for reducing this burden, to Washington Headquarters Services, Directorate for Information Operations and Reports, 1215 Jefferson Davis Highway, Suite 1204, Arlington, VA 22202-4302, and to the Office of Management and Budget, I'aperwork Reduction Project (0704-0188) Washington DC 20503. 1 . AGENCY USE ONLY (Leave blank) 2. REPORT DATE 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED December 1997. Master's Thesis TITLE AND SUBTITLE EXTENSION OF THE SYSTEMATIC 5. FUNDING NUMBERS APPROACH TO TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECASTING IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC 6. AUTHOR(S) Mark A. Boothe 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDR£SS(ES) PERFORMING Naval Postgraduate School ORGANIZATION Monterey CA 93943-5000 REPORT NUMBER 9. SPONSORING/MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESSEES) 10. SPONSORING/MONTTORIN G AGENCY REPORT NUMBER 11. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES The views expressed in this thesis are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the Department of Defense or the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO Diploma Thesis
    MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský MASARYK UNIVERSITY BRNO FACULTY OF EDUCATION DEPARTMENT OF ENGLISH LANGUAGE AND LITERATURE Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis Diploma thesis Brno 2018 Supervisor: Author: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Declaration I declare that I have worked on this thesis independently, using only the primary and secondary sources listed in the bibliography. I agree with the placing of this thesis in the library of the Faculty of Education at the Masaryk University and with the access for academic purposes. Brno, 30th March 2018 …………………………………………. Bc. Lukáš Opavský Acknowledgements I would like to thank my supervisor, doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. for his kind help and constant guidance throughout my work. Bc. Lukáš Opavský OPAVSKÝ, Lukáš. Presentation Sentences in Wikipedia: FSP Analysis; Diploma Thesis. Brno: Masaryk University, Faculty of Education, English Language and Literature Department, 2018. XX p. Supervisor: doc. Mgr. Martin Adam, Ph.D. Annotation The purpose of this thesis is an analysis of a corpus comprising of opening sentences of articles collected from the online encyclopaedia Wikipedia. Four different quality categories from Wikipedia were chosen, from the total amount of eight, to ensure gathering of a representative sample, for each category there are fifty sentences, the total amount of the sentences altogether is, therefore, two hundred. The sentences will be analysed according to the Firabsian theory of functional sentence perspective in order to discriminate differences both between the quality categories and also within the categories.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Fausto 21 August - 03 September 2002
    Tropical Cyclone Report Hurricane Fausto 21 August - 03 September 2002 James L. Franklin National Hurricane Center 6 December 2002 Hurricane Fausto was a long-lived category 4 hurricane (on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) that did not affect any land areas. After degenerating to a remnant low in the Central North Pacific basin, Fausto was reborn as a tropical depression and later as a tropical storm. a. Synoptic History Fausto developed from a tropical wave that crossed the west-African coast on 11 August and entered the eastern North Pacific basin on 17 August. By late on 18 August the system acquired enough organization to be classified using the Dvorak technique. By the following day a broad closed circulation was present, but the convective pattern had weakened. Early on 21 August the system began to reorganize and at 1200 UTC became a tropical depression about 400 n mi south- southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The “best track” chart of the tropical cyclone’s path is given in Fig. 1, with the wind and pressure histories shown in Figs. 2 and 3, respectively. The best track positions and intensities are listed in Table 1. The depression initially moved westward and strengthened, becoming a tropical storm at 0000 UTC 22 August, about 450 n mi south-southwest of Manzanillo. Fausto turned to the west-northwest, a heading it would maintain for the next six days, and steadily strengthened, becoming a hurricane later that day at 1800 UTC, when it was about 565 n mi south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Steady and significant strengthening continued, with Fausto reaching its peak intensity of 125 kt at 1200 UTC 24 August, roughly 60 hours after becoming a tropical storm.
    [Show full text]
  • 2008 Tropical Cyclone Review Summarises Last Year’S Global Tropical Cyclone Activity and the Impact of the More Significant Cyclones After Landfall
    2008 Tropical Cyclone 09 Review TWO THOUSAND NINE Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 NORTH ATLANTIC BASIN 2 Verification of 2008 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts 3 Tropical Cyclones Making US Landfall in 2008 4 Significant North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones in 2008 5 Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009 15 NORTHWEST PACIFIC 17 Verification of 2008 Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts 19 Significant Northwest Pacific Tropical Cyclones in 2008 20 Northwest Pacific Basin Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009 24 NORTHEAST PACIFIC 25 Significant Northeast Pacific Tropical Cyclones in 2008 26 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN 28 Significant North Indian Tropical Cyclones in 2008 28 AUSTRALIAN BASIN 30 Australian Region Tropical Cyclone Forecasts for 2009/2010 31 Glossary of terms 32 FOR FURTHER DETAILS, PLEASE CONTACT [email protected], OR GO TO OUR CAT CENTRAL WEBSITE AT HTTP://WWW.GUYCARP.COM/PORTAL/EXTRANET/INSIGHTS/CATCENTRAL.HTML Tropical Cyclone Report 2008 Guy Carpenter ■ 1 Executive Summary The 2008 Tropical Cyclone Review summarises last year’s global tropical cyclone activity and the impact of the more significant cyclones after landfall. Tropical 1 cyclone activity is reviewed by oceanic basin, covering those that developed in the North Atlantic, Northwest Pacific, Northeast Pacific, North Indian Ocean and Australia. This report includes estimates of the economic and insured losses sus- tained from each cyclone (where possible). Predictions of tropical cyclone activity for the 2009 season are given per oceanic basin when permitted by available data. In the North Atlantic, 16 tropical storms formed during the 2008 season, compared to the 1950 to 2007 average of 9.7,1 an increase of 65 percent.
    [Show full text]
  • September Weather History for the 1St - 30Th
    SEPTEMBER WEATHER HISTORY FOR THE 1ST - 30TH AccuWeather Site Address- http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?showtopic=7074 West Henrico Co. - Glen Allen VA. Site Address- (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- AccuWeather.com Forums _ Your Weather Stories / Historical Storms _ Today in Weather History Posted by: BriSr Sep 1 2008, 11:37 AM September 1 MN History 1807 Earliest known comprehensive Minnesota weather record began near Pembina. The temperature at midday was 86 degrees and a "strong wind until sunset." 1894 The Great Hinckley Fire. Drought conditions started a massive fire that began near Mille Lacs and spread to the east. The firestorm destroyed Hinckley and Sandstone and burned a forest area the size of the Twin City Metropolitan Area. Smoke from the fires brought shipping on Lake Superior to a standstill. 1926 This was perhaps the most intense brief thunderstorm ever in downtown Minneapolis. 1.02 inches of rain fell in six minutes, starting at 2:59pm in the afternoon according to the Minneapolis Weather Bureau. The deluge, accompanied with winds of 42mph, caused visibility to be reduced to a few feet at times and stopped all streetcar and automobile traffic. At second and sixth street in downtown Minneapolis rushing water tore a manhole cover off and a geyser of water spouted 20 feet in the air. Hundreds of wooden paving blocks were uprooted and floated onto neighboring lawns much to the delight of barefooted children seen scampering among the blocks after the rain ended. U.S. History # 1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA.
    [Show full text]
  • Regional Association IV (North and Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan
    W O R L D M E T E O R O L O G I C A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N T E C H N I C A L D O C U M E N T WMO-TD No. 494 TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMME Report No. TCP-30 Regional Association IV (North and Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan 2001 Edition SECRETARIAT OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION - GENEVA SWITZERLAND ©World Meteorological Organization 2001 N O T E The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. (iv) C O N T E N T S Page Introduction ...............................................................................................................................vii Resolution 14 (IX-RA IV) - RA IV Hurricane Operational Plan .................................................viii CHAPTER 1 - GENERAL 1.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Terminology used in RA IV ..............................................................................1-1 1.2.1 Standard terminology in RA IV .........................................................................1-1 1.2.2 Meaning of other terms used .............................................................................1-3 1.2.3 Equivalent terms ...............................................................................................1-4
    [Show full text]
  • Section 5.4-5.4.2
    SECTION 5.4: RISK ASSESSMENT – HAZARDS PROFILES AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 5.4 HAZARDS PROFILES AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT The following sections profile and assess vulnerability for each hazard of concern. For each hazard, the profile includes: the hazard description; its location and extent; previous occurrences and losses; and the probability of future events. The vulnerability assessment for each hazard includes: an overview of vulnerability; the data and methodology used; the impact on life, health and safety; impact on general building stock; impact on critical facilities; impact on the economy; additional data needs and next steps; and the overall vulnerability assessment finding. Hazards are presented in hazard priority order, starting with the coastal storm hazard and ending with the earthquake hazard. DMA 2000 Hazard Mitigation Plan – City of New Rochelle, New York 5.4-1 September 2010 SECTION 5.4.1: COASTAL AND SEVERE STORMS 5.4.1 COASTAL AND SEVERE STORMS This section provides a profile and vulnerability assessment for the coastal storm and severe storm hazards. HAZARD PROFILE Hazard profile information is provided in this section, including information on description, extent, location, previous occurrences and losses and the probability of future occurrences within the City of New Rochelle. Description Coastal storms (hurricanes, tropical depressions, tropical storms, and Nor’Easters) are typically events associated with severe storms (hailstorms, windstorms, lightning, thunderstorms and tornadoes). Therefore, for the purpose of this HMP, severe storms and coastal storms are grouped together. Both types of storms affect the City of New Rochelle. Severe Storm The severe storm hazard includes the following types of events: hailstorms, windstorms, lightning, thunderstorms and tornadoes.
    [Show full text]
  • 2017 Edition
    Regional Association IV – Hurricane Operational Plan for North America, Central America and the Caribbean Tropical Cyclone Programme Report No. TCP-30 2017 edition TER WA E T A CLIM R THE A WE World Meteorological Organization WMO-No. 1163 WMO-No. 1163 © World Meteorological Organization, 2017 The right of publication in print, electronic and any other form and in any language is reserved by WMO. Short extracts from WMO publications may be reproduced without authorization, provided that the complete source is clearly indicated. Editorial correspondence and requests to publish, reproduce or translate this publication in part or in whole should be addressed to: Chair, Publications Board World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 7 bis, avenue de la Paix Tel.: +41 (0) 22 730 84 03 P.O. Box 2300 Fax: +41 (0) 22 730 80 40 CH-1211 Geneva 2, Switzerland E-mail: [email protected] ISBN 978-92-63-11163-0 NOTE The designations employed in WMO publications and the presentation of material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of WMO concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by WMO in preference to others of a similar nature which are not mentioned or advertised. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in WMO publications with named authors are those of the authors alone and do not necessarily reflect those of WMO or its Members.
    [Show full text]
  • Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2008
    MARCH 2010 B L A K E A N D P A S C H 705 Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2008 ERIC S. BLAKE AND RICHARD J. PASCH NOAA/NWS/NCEP, National Hurricane Center, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 10 June 2009, in final form 29 September 2009) ABSTRACT The hurricane season of 2008 in the eastern North Pacific basin is summarized, and the individual tropical cyclones are described. Official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are also evaluated. The 2008 eastern North Pacific season was relatively quiet, with overall activity at about 75% of the long-term median. A total of 16 tropical storms formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes. One hurricane, one tropical storm, and two tropical depressions made landfall in Mexico, causing eight direct deaths in that country along with significant property damage. In addition, Tropical Storm Alma was the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. On average, the official track forecasts in the eastern Pacific for 2008 were quite skillful and set records for accuracy from 1 to 3 days. However, no appreciable improvement in mean intensity forecast skill was noted. 1. Overview tropical storms (Alma and Julio) and two tropical de- pressions (Five-E and Lowell) made landfall this sea- As in the previous year, tropical cyclone activity in the son. All of these landfalls occurred in Mexico, except for eastern North Pacific basin in 2008 was below average, Alma’s, which occurred in Nicaragua. Notably, Alma is with the season continuing the relative quietness in this the first eastern North Pacific basin tropical storm or hur- basin that has prevailed since 1995.
    [Show full text]
  • Hurricane Operational Plan
    W O R L D M E T E O R O L O G I C A L O R G A N I Z A T I O N T E C H N I C A L D O C U M E N T WMO-TD No. 494 TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRAMME Report No. TCP-30 Regional Association IV (North America, Central America and the Caribbean) Hurricane Operational Plan 2007 Edition SECRETARIAT OF THE WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION - GENEVA SWITZERLAND ©World Meteorological Organization 2007 N O T E The designations employed and the presentation of material in this document do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the World Meteorological Organization concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. 2007 Edition (iii) CONTENTS Page Introduction .........................................................................................................................................viii Resolution 14 (IX-RA IV) - RA IV Hurricane Operational Plan ...............................................................ix CHAPTER 1 - GENERAL 1.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................................1-1 1.2 Terminology used in RA IV ............................................................................................1-1 1.2.1 Standard terminology in RA IV ......................................................................................1-1 1.2.2 Meaning of other terms used .........................................................................................1-3
    [Show full text]
  • Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 1996
    3068 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 126 Eastern North Paci®c Hurricane Season of 1996 MAX MAYFIELD AND EDWARD N. RAPPAPORT National Hurricane Center,* NWS, NOAA, Miami, Florida (Manuscript received 8 November 1997, in ®nal form 2 March 1998) ABSTRACT The National Hurricane Center (a component of the Tropical Prediction Center) tracked nine tropical storms, ®ve of which became hurricanes, during the 1996 eastern North Paci®c hurricane season. Five tropical storms or hurricanes made landfall in Mexico. An overview of the 1996 hurricane season is presented. 1. Introduction 2. Best tracks For the era of routine meteorological satellite cov- The NHC tropical cyclone ``best-track'' database con- erage that began in 1966, the average numbers of trop- sists of a center position and two measures of intensity ical storms and hurricanes per year in the eastern North (the maximum 1-min sustained surface wind speed and Paci®c (from 1408W eastward and from the equator the minimum sea level pressure).1 The parameters are northward) are 16 and 9, respectively. In 1996, the estimated at 6-h intervals. They are based on a poststorm National Hurricane Center (NHC, a component of the analysis of data conducted by the NHC. The primary Tropical Prediction Center) identi®ed nine tropical sources for the analysis are the National Oceanic and storms, of which ®ve became hurricanes. For the 1966± Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Tropical Analysis 95 period, only 1969, 1970, and 1977 had fewer hur- and Forecast Branch (TAFB), the NOAA Synoptic ricanes (four), and only 1977 had fewer tropical storms Analysis Branch (SAB), and the Air Force Global (eight).
    [Show full text]