MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA APPENDICES VOLUME FOUR DECEMBER 2016 MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA APPENDICES DECEMBER 2016 MAG 2017 EIGHT-HOUR OZONE MODERATE AREA PLAN FOR THE MARICOPA NONATTAINMENT AREA APPENDICES APPENDIX A Exhibit 1: 2011 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa County, Arizona, Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area. Maricopa County Air Quality Department. February 2014. Addendum August 2015. Exhibit 2: 2014 Periodic Emissions Inventory for Ozone Precursors for the Maricopa County, Arizona, Eight-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area. Maricopa County Air Quality Department. September 2016. APPENDIX B Exhibit 1: Technical Support Document in Support of the MAG 2017 Eight-Hour Ozone Moderate Area Plan for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area. Maricopa Association of Governments. Exhibit 2: State of Arizona Fifty-Second Legislature Senate Bill 1255 and Final Revised Fact Sheet for Senate Bill 1255. APPENDIX C Exhibit 1: Public Hearing Process Documentation. Exhibit 2: Certification of Adoption and MAG Authority for Regional Air Quality Planning. APPENDIX B APPENDIX B EXHIBIT 1: Appendices to the: Technical Support Document in Support of the MAG 2017 Eight-Hour Ozone Moderate Area Plan for the Maricopa Nonattainment Area. Maricopa Association of Governments. APPENDICES APPENDIX A MODELING PROTOCOL OZONE MODELING PROTOCOL IN SUPPORT OF THE MAG 2017 MODERATE AREA PLAN FOR THE MARICOPA EIGHT-HOUR OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA (2008 OZONE STANDARD) Maricopa Association of Governments November 2015 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF TABLES. iii LIST OF FIGURES. iv ACRONYMS.. v 1.0 OVERVIEW OF MODELING STUDY.. 1 1.1 Background. 1 1.2 Purpose of Modeling Protocol. 1 2.0 CONCEPTUAL MODEL. 2 3.0 EPISODE SELECTION. 2 4.0 MODEL SELECTION. 3 5.0 MODELING DOMAIN SELECTION. 5 5.1 Horizontal Domain. 5 5.2 Vertical Layer Configuration.. 7 6.0 MODEL INPUTS.. 9 6.1 Meteorological Modeling Inputs. 9 6.2 Emission Inputs. 10 6.3 Emissions Preprocessing.. 17 6.4 Ozone Column Data. 19 6.5 Observed Ozone Data. 19 6.6 Photochemical Modeling Configuration. 20 6.7 Quality Assurance. 22 7.0 MODEL PERFORMANCE EVALUATION. 23 8.0 OZONE ATTAINMENT DEMONSTRATION. 25 8.1 Future Year Selection. 25 8.2 Eight-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration Procedures. 25 8.3 Future Year Air Quality Simulations.. 26 8.4 Unmonitored Areas Attainment Test. 26 9.0 SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSES.. 27 10.0 MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE AND COMMITTEES. 28 11.0 PARTICIPATING ORGANIZATIONS. 31 i 12.0 PROCEDURAL REQUIREMENTS.. 31 13.0 SCHEDULE. 31 REFERENCES. R-1 APPENDIX A. CONCEPTUAL MODEL. A-1 APPENDIX B. DRAFT EMISSIONS INVENTORY. B-1 APPENDIX C. GROWTH FACTORS. C-1 APPENDIX D. MAPPING OF SPATIAL SURROGATES. D-1 APPENDIX E. MEXICO AND CANADA EMISSIONS.. E-1 APPENDIX F. DRAFT EIGHT-HOUR OZONE NONATTAINMENT AREA EMISSIONS .. F-1 ii LIST OF TABLES Page Table 5-1 WRF and CAMx modeling domains. 6 Table 5-2 Pressures and heights of WRF and CAMx vertical layers.. 8 Table 6-1 Growth indices and growth factors for non-EGU point and area sources in Maricopa County. 11 Table 6-2 Growth indices and growth factors for non-EGU point and area sources in Pinal County. 12 Table 6-3 Operations for airports in the 4 km domain in 2011 and 2017. 16 Table 6-4 Ozone monitoring sites in the 4 km domain. 20 Table 6-5 CAMx model configuration. 21 Table 7-1 Statistical metrics used in model performance evaluation. 23 Table 13-1 Schedule for the eight-hour ozone modeling demonstration for the Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area. 33 iii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 4-1 MAG air quality modeling system flowchart.. 4 Figure 5-1 CAMx photochemical modeling domains (red: 36/12/4 km) and WRF meteorological modeling domains (blue: 36/12/4 km).. 6 Figure 5-2 The inner-most CAMx modeling domain (red) and WRF modeling domain (blue), along with the Maricopa County boundary (green) and the Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area (purple). 7 Figure 6-1 Locations of ozone monitoring sites within and near the Maricopa eight- hour ozone nonattainment area. 19 Figure 10-1 MAG policy structure.. 29 Figure 10-2 MAG committee structure. 30 iv ACRONYMS ADEQ Arizona Department of Environmental Quality ADOT Arizona Department of Transportation ADWM Arizona Department of Weights and Measures APCA Anthropogenic precursor culpability assessment APM Aviation performance metrics APU Auxiliary power unit AQMP Air Quality Modeling Platform AQTAC Air Quality Technical Advisory Committee ASOS Automated Surface Observing System ATADS Air Traffic Activity Data System AVFT Alternative vehicle and fuel technologies CAA Clean Air Act CAMx Comprehensive Air Quality Model with eXtensions CART Classification and regression tree CB6 Carbon bond version 6 CEMS Continuous Emissions Monitoring System CFR Code of Federal Regulations CISL Computational Information Systems Laboratory CMAQ Community Multiscale Air Quality Model CPA Chemical process analysis DDM Decoupled direct method DEASCO3 Deterministic and Empirical Assessment of Smoke's Contribution to Ozone DOT Department of Transportation EDMS Emissions and Dispersion Modeling System EGU Electric Generating Unit EPA Environmental Protection Agency ERG Eastern Research Group ESRL Earth System Research Laboratory ETMSC Enhanced Traffic Management System Counts FAA Federal Aviation Administration FR Federal Register GIS Geographic Information System GSE Ground support equipment HPMS Highway Performance Monitoring System I/M Inspection and maintenance ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICBC Initial and boundary conditions ISHD Integrated Surface Hourly Database LAI Leaf area index LCP Lambert Conformal Projection LTO Landing and takeoff MAG Maricopa Association of Governments v MATS Modeled Attainment Test Software MCAQD Maricopa County Air Quality Department MCIP Meteorology-Chemistry Interface Processor MEGAN Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature MOVES Motor Vehicle Emission Simulator MOZART Model for Ozone and Related Chemical Tracers NAAQS National Ambient Air Quality Standards NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research NCDC National Climatic Data Center NEI National Emissions Inventory NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOx Nitrogen oxides NWS National Weather Service OSAT Ozone source apportionment technology PCAQCD Pinal County Air Quality Control District PEI Periodic Emissions Inventory PFT Plant functional types PTE Potential to Emit RRF Relative response factor RRTM Rapid Radiative Transfer Model RVP Reid vapor pressure SA Spatial Allocator SCC Source classification code SMOKE Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions TAF Terminal Area Forecast TDM Travel demand model TOMS Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer TSD Technical support document TUV Tropospheric Ultraviolet Visible UTC Universal Time Coordinate VHT Vehicle hours traveled VMT Vehicle miles traveled VOC Volatile organic compounds WPS WRF Preprocessing System WRAP Western Regional Air Partnership WRF Weather Research and Forecasting Model vi 1.0 OVERVIEW OF MODELING STUDY 1.1 Background Under the 1990 Clean Air Act (CAA), the Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area was classified as a Marginal area for the 2008 ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) of 0.075 parts per million (ppm). The Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area includes the 5,018 square mile area located predominantly in Maricopa County with a portion of Pinal County (i.e., the city of Apache Junction). The effective date of the Marginal area designation was July 20, 2012. Since the Marginal area has up to 3 years from the effective date of the designation for the attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the attainment date was set to July 20, 2015. The Maricopa Association of Governments (MAG) prepared the MAG 2014 Eight-Hour Ozone Plan. In compliance with the CAA requirements for the Marginal nonattainment area for ozone, the plan included an Emissions Statement, the 2011 Periodic Emissions Inventory, Pre-1990 Reasonably Available Control Technology Corrections, Nonattainment Area Preconstruction Permit Program, New Source Review, Emission Offset Requirements, Pre-1990 Corrections to Previously Required Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs, and Transportation Conformity Requirements Compliance. Since the modeled attainment demonstration is not required for Marginal areas under the CAA, the plan did not include the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone standard. The plan was submitted to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in June 2014. EPA approved most elements of the plan except for the New Source Review on September 25, 2015. Since the area did not achieve the 2008 ozone standard by the required deadline of July 20, 2015, the Maricopa eight-hour ozone nonattainment area was subsequently proposed by EPA to be reclassified as a Moderate area on August 27, 2015 (FR, 2015). The deadline for Moderate areas to attain the 2008 ozone standard is July 20, 2018. Since EPA requires a modeled attainment demonstration if an area is classified as a Moderate area for the 2008 ozone standard, MAG has prepared this modeling protocol for the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone standard. For the attainment demonstration, EPA requires that all control measures necessary to demonstrate attainment be implemented prior to the start of the ozone season preceding the attainment year. Thus, the modeled attainment demonstration in this study verifies that all implemented federal and