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The Rise of Athletic Apparel Across the Mall 13 June 2012 Americas/United States Equity Research Apparel The Rise of Athletic Apparel Across The Mall Research Analysts COMMENT Christian Buss 212 325 9667 [email protected] NKE, UA, VFC Long-Term Beneficiaries As Gary Balter 212 538 4228 Retailers Focus On High-Growth Activewear [email protected] Seth Sigman ■ Athletic apparel growth continues to outpace the rest of the apparel 212 538 8043 industry, gaining share of wallet. As a result we are seeing more retailers [email protected] increase their exposure to this category with both branded and private label Bilun Boyner products. In this report we highlight the increase in offerings at department 212 325 8717 stores, specialty apparel, athletic footwear, and sporting goods retailers. [email protected] ■ Simeon Gutman, CFA Some of the Changes: Dick’s Sporting Goods, Foot Locker, and Finish Line 212 538 5247 are increasing branded offerings namely with Nike, Under Armour, and The [email protected] North Face. Specialty retailers are expanding private label including Macy’s Brian Innes (Ideology), Nordstrom (Zella), JC Penney (Xersion), Gap (GapFit), Old Navy 212 325 7056 (Old Navy Active), Victoria’s Secret (VSX) and Lady Foot Locker (Actra.) [email protected] Company Implications. With this backdrop, we expect the following companies Darla Shay to be the largest beneficiaries of retailers’ increasing activewear offerings: 212 325-2379 [email protected] ■ Nike (near- and long-term): We see an incremental lever for growth in the United States, with improved apparel presentations and product offerings across channels (category offense, SKU rationalization). ■ Under Armour (near- and long-term): We expect benefits from greater shelf space within existing retail doors (DKS, JWN, FL, FINL), new distribution points (M), and stronger brand stories given rationalized product offerings (DKS, JWN, FL). ■ VF Corp. (near- and long-term): The North Face has opportunity to benefit from square footage gains in department and sporting goods stores in spring/summer. The company’s Lucy activewear retailer (60 stores) could also benefit with further expansion of wholesale offerings (250 currently). ■ lululemon athletica (near-term): Near-term, we expect benefits from lululemon’s status as the premier women’s athletic brand, with opportunity for share-capture from casual fashion brands. Longer-term, greater competitor emphasis on athletics raises the prospect of price competition ■ Dick’s (near-term): With the most developed athletic apparel product offering and best in class merchandising, we expect Dick’s will remain a near-term beneficiary of the shift in consumer apparel spending habits. Longer-term, increasing athletic penetration could prove a competitive threat. ■ Hibbett Sports (near-term): HIBB continues to be a beneficiary of brands’ distribution expansion outside of the core big box sporting goods channel, as suppliers leverage HIBB’s position in small and mid-size markets. 77% of HIBB stores are in strip malls where the primary competition is Wal-Mart. DISCLOSURE APPENDIX CONTAINS ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. FOR OTHER IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, visit www.credit-suisse.com/ researchdisclosures or call +1 (877) 291-2683. U.S. Disclosure: Credit Suisse does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES RESEARCH & ANALYTICS BEYOND INFORMATION® Client-Driven Solutions, Insights, and Access 13 June 2012 Industry Overview – Apparel Outperformed In 2011 – Longer-Term Positive Industry Outlook Sports Apparel Dramatically Outpaces Apparel Industry Growth in 2011... Sports apparel’s 6.1% growth compares to total U.S. wholesale apparel growth of 2.5% Y/Y in 2011, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. …Following a Trend That Began in 2007. Between 2007 and 2011, the U.S. sports apparel wholesale market increased 6.4% to $31.4B, compared to the total U.S apparel wholesale market declining 2.7% for the same period. We note that the segment’s outperformance is a relatively recent trend, as U.S. sports apparel’s CAGR (2000 to 2011) of 3.4% compares to total the apparel industry’s 10-year CAGR of 3.2%. Exhibit 1: Sports Apparel Wholesale Sales Rose 6.4% While Total Apparel’s Fell 2.7% Between 2007 and 2011 8.0% 6.4% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -2.7% -4.0% Sports Apparel Total U.S. Apparel Source: SGMA, U.S. Census Bureau, Credit Suisse estimates Apparel Leads Sporting Goods Wholesale Sales Growth in 2011. Wholesale sales of sporting goods merchandise rose 4.2% Y/Y to $77 billion in 2011, according to the SGMA (Sporting Goods Manufacturers Association). Within the sector, sports apparel posted the strongest growth of 6.1% Y/Y, followed by footwear (up 4.5%), equipment (up 2.5%). Sporting Goods Retail Sales Similarly Led by Apparel. The U.S sporting goods retail market (sales across sporting goods retailers, excluding department and general merchandise stores), showed similar trends to the SGMA data, with apparel (up 4.8% Y/Y) leading overall U.S. sporting goods growth of 2.0% Y/Y to $55 billion 2011), according to the National Sporting Goods Association (Exhibit 2). Sporting Goods Sales Remain at Highs as a Percentage of Total Retail Sales. Sporting goods sales as a percentage of total U.S. retail sales remains at recent highs. In 2009-2011, sporting goods store sales accounted for 1.45% of total retail sales, up from an average of 1.3% from 2000-2008 (Exhibit 3). We Expect Athletic Apparel Will Continue to Outpace Apparel Industry Sales 2012- 2016E. We project annual athletic apparel growth to average 5%-plus over the next five years (based on National Sporting Goods Association’s figures), versus our expectation for 2-3% overall apparel industry growth. The Rise of Athletic Apparel Across The Mall 2 13 June 2012 Exhibit 2: We Estimate 2-3% Annual Sporting Goods Exhibit 3: Sporting Goods Should Continue to Grow as a Industry Growth Percent of the U.S. Consumer’s Wallet $63,000 10% 1.50% 8% 1.45% $58,000 6% 4% 1.40% $53,000 2% 1.35% 0% 1.30% $48,000 -2% -4% 1.25% $43,000 -6% 1.20% -8% 1.15% $38,000 -10% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013E 2015E Sporting Goods Store Sales as % of Total Retail Sales (ex. Auto and Sporting Goods Sales Y/Y Growth Gas) Source: NSGA.org, Credit Suisse estimates Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Credit Suisse estimates Square Footage Growth Favors Sporting Goods. We note that planned 4-5% annual square footage growth at sporting goods, outdoor specialty, and athletic footwear retailers is expected to exceed specialty retail averages. Current company guidance suggests 4.4% square footage growth in sporting goods retail in 2012, as outlined in Exhibit 4. This is 150bp above growth expectations for the overall specialty retail landscape. Exhibit 4: Sporting Goods And Outdoor Square Footage Growth of 4-5% To Exceed Industry Average of 2-3% Sporting Goods Retail Square Footage Growth (sq. ft. 000s) 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Full-Line Sporting Goods Academy 4,125 5,170 5,830 6,220 6,664 8,320 9,100 10,075 25.3% 12.8% 6.7% 7.1% 24.8% 9.4% 10.7% Big 5 3,663 3,773 3,993 4,191 4,224 4,378 4,466 4,543 3.0% 5.8% 5.0% 0.8% 3.6% 2.0% 1.7% Champs 2,093 2,131 2,131 2,034 1,932 1,890 1,869 1,922 1.8% 0.0% -4.6% -5.0% -2.2% -1.1% 2.8% Chick's Sporting Goods 575 665 765 850 - - - - 15.7% 15.0% 11.1% Dick's Sporting Goods 14,625 16,700 19,313 21,400 23,351 24,600 26,300 28,100 14.2% 15.6% 10.8% 9.1% 5.3% 6.9% 6.8% Dunhams 3,425 3,525 3,775 3,700 3,897 4,070 5,370 5,820 2.9% 7.1% -2.0% 5.3% 4.4% 31.9% 8.4% Hibbett Sporting Goods 2,745 3,070 3,460 3,760 3,870 4,010 4,181 4,420 11.8% 12.7% 8.7% 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 5.7% Joe's Sports 1,210 1,147 1,540 1,590 - - - - -5.2% 34.3% 3.2% MC Sports 1,163 1,244 1,275 1,356 1,291 1,275 1,275 1,275 7.0% 2.5% 6.4% -4.8% -1.2% 0.0% 0.0% Modell's 2,152 2,254 2,300 2,453 2,453 2,487 2,521 2,657 4.7% 2.0% 6.7% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 5.4% Olympia Sports 700 760 835 855 832 860 953 1,023 8.6% 9.9% 2.4% -2.7% 3.4% 10.8% 7.3% Sport Chalet 1,531 1,793 2,085 2,205 2,205 2,205 2,165 2,165 17.1% 16.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% -1.8% 0.0% Sports Authority 16,542 17,300 17,900 19,200 19,500 19,335 19,713 19,713 4.6% 3.5% 7.3% 1.6% -0.8% 2.0% 0.0% Total 55,759 59,532 65,202 69,814 70,219 73,430 77,913 81,713 6.8% 9.5% 7.1% 0.6% 4.6% 6.1% 4.9% Hunt, Fish, and Camp Bass Pro/Outdoor World 4,556 5,146 6,310 7,363 7,658 7,658 7,948 7,948 12.9% 22.6% 16.7% 4.0% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% Cabela's 2,126 2,691 3,981 4,300 4,400 4,400 4,987 5,486 26.6% 47.9% 8.0% 2.3% 0.0% 13.3% 10.0% Gander Mountain 5,037 5,536 6,200 5,384 5,400 5,492 5,261 5,365 9.9% 12.0% -13.2% 0.3% 1.7% -4.2% 2.0% Scheels 1,210 1,320 1,210 1,210 1,400 1,620 1,620 1,620 9.1% -8.3% 0.0% 15.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% The Sportsman's Warehouse 2,150 3,100 3,350 3,210 1,246 1,246 1,399 1,534 44.2% 8.1% -4.2% -61.2% 0.0% 12.3% 9.6% Total 15,079 17,793 21,051 21,467 20,104 20,416 21,215 21,953 18.0% 18.3% 2.0% -6.3% 1.6% 3.9% 3.5% Outdoor/Ski Eastern Mountain Sports 533 449 436 521 521 513 545 577 -15.8% -2.9% 19.5% 0.0% -1.5% 6.2% 5.9% REI 2,115 2,296 2,808 3,091 3,254 3,364 3,571 3,717 8.6% 22.3% 10.1% 5.3% 3.4% 6.2%
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