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Ukraine's 2019 Elections and the Rise of a New Political Guard — 6/2019 Ukraine’s 2019 Elections and the Rise of a New Political Guard — Katya Gorchinskaya PUBLISHED BY THE SWEDISH INSTITUTE OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS | UI.SE Summary Ukraine held presidential and parliamentary elections in 2019. The results radically altered the political landscape and concentrated power in the hands of a single political group in an unprecedented way. The political novice and former comedian, Volodymyr Zelensky, won the presidency by a huge margin on April 21 and his rapidly formed political party, Servant of the People, won a parliamentary majority just three months later. This concentration of power in the hands of a single group presents a unique opportunity to make a radical leap with much-needed reforms. However, it also presents multiple risks for a country with weak institutions and a short history of democracy. © 2019 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs 2 Presidential elections corruption and the war with Russia. The top five expectations for the first 100 days of Ukraine held the first round of its the new presidency were to: (a) reduce presidential election on March 31 and a run- utility tariffs, 39.1 per cent; (b) introduce a off vote followed on April 21. Despite a draft bill to remove immunity from proliferation of candidates – there were 44 prosecution for parliamentarians, judges in total – the real fight for the nation’s top and the president, 35.5 per cent; job was between the incumbent president, (c) begin/speed up the largest corruption Petro Poroshenko, a multimillionaire, and investigations, 32.4 per cent; (d) start the actor and comedian, Volodymyr negotiations with Russia, 23.3 per cent; and Zelensky, a complete novice in politics. (e) reduce the salaries of senior officials, 18.4 per cent. Zelensky won the run-off overwhelmingly with 73.22 per cent of the vote, as against Unlike Poroshenko, Zelensky echoed the 24.45 per cent cast for Poroshenko. In people’s concerns in his election addition, Zelensky received a majority of programme and campaign, albeit in a support in all of Ukraine’s regions, bridging populist way. His campaign comprised a the traditional east-west divide in the series of performances by his comedy country for the first time since the country’s troupe. Fittingly, his programme read more independence in 1991. like a television script than a list of policies that would take care of the country’s woes: In his concession speech, Poroshenko announced that he would be remaining in I will tell you about the Ukraine of my politics despite the defeat: “We did not win dreams. It’s the Ukraine where the only shots this fight but it certainly does not mean that are fireworks at weddings and birthday we lost the war”. Zelensky’s victory was parties. It’s a Ukraine where it only takes an widely interpreted by observers as a hour to start a business, it takes 15 minutes to demonstration of the nation’s desire to see get a passport and it takes a second to vote in new faces in politics – a trend that began elections, via the Internet….Where there are with “Revolution of Dignity” and the no adverts about “Jobs in Poland”, and presidential election in 2014. In that Poland has ads about “Jobs in Ukraine”. election, Poroshenko had run on a slogan of Where a young family has only one “Living the New Way” and claimed that challenge, to choose between a flat in the city “fundamental changes are needed for the or a house in the suburbs….Where doctors country, and for each citizen individually”. and teachers receive real salaries – and His rhetoric had changed dramatically five corrupt officials real jail time. Where it is the years on, when he ran on a conservative Carpathian forests that are untouchable, not slogan: “Army; language; faith”. members of parliament. Where an elderly woman gets a decent pension, not a heart Expectations attack from her housing bills. Poroshenko’s departure from his original Media coverage programme was out of line with the demands of the electorate. According to an Zelensky’s campaign relied heavily on April 2019 poll by the Kyiv International coverage from 1+1, one of Ukraine’s most Institute of Sociology, in the run-up to popularmedia outlets, which is owned by elections voters were most concerned about his long-time business partner, the dollar the state of the economy, political injustice, billionaire Igor Kolomoisky. The skewed © 2019 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs 3 coverage in favour of Zelensky was the remarks on social networks. These were subject of a special review by the regulator, often derogatory about Zelensky and his the National Television and Radio Council, supporters. In one such post that reflects on May 17, 2019. The council’s monitoring the general sentiment, Poroshenko’s showed that in the two-week period April adviser, Roman Donik, asked: “Why do we 8–21, the Kolomoisky’s flagship television have to be shy about being the smartest channel devoted three times more airtime and best educated? That’s every fourth to Zelensky than to Poroshenko. Coverage person in the country – that’s us. That we of Zelensky was on air for 31 hours and 38 are the only ones capable of critical minutes, while Poroshenko’s campaign thinking. That we are statesmen....We are received only 11 hours and 34 minutes of not afraid to take responsibility and we can airtime. take a punch”. Zelensky’s team also ran a unique and A clean election robust campaign across social media – from Facebook to Instagram, YouTube and Both rounds of the presidential election Telegram – in an attempt to mobilize were judged by international and domestic younger voters. Notably, Zelensky’s observers to be the cleanest in Ukraine’s Telegram channel became the biggest in history. According to a report by the Ukraine in March 2019 after launching on Organization for Security and Co-operation December 28, 2018. It overtook the in Europe’s elections monitoring arm, the massively popular discount travel channel, Office for Democratic Institutions and Veter Doit, which had been the market Human Rights (ODIHR), “the 2019 leader in terms of number of subscribers for presidential election in Ukraine was at least one year prior to the election. competitive and held with respect for Zelensky’s mobilization tactics worked well, fundamental freedoms”. The ODIHR report and he became the leading candidate noted, however, that: “the campaign in among younger voters. According to the both rounds lacked genuine discussion of National Exit Poll, he received 57 per cent of issues of public concern” and criticized the votes of 18–29-year olds in the first skewed coverage by the media, which round. Poroshenko received just 14 per cent reflected the business and political interests of the votes of this cohort. of owners rather than the public interest. The report also listed a number of legislative Surprise and procedural flaws. Zelensky’s victory and its margin were OPORA, the domestic election watchdog, predicted by every poll conducted in the reported that both rounds of presidential country. Nonetheless, it came as a shock for elections were better run even than the much of the political elite and to most of “clean elections” of 2014. The most those active on social media. Reactions to common violation was attempts by voters Poroshenko’s defeat from the latter group to obtain ballots without presenting a were bitter and dramatic. A short-lived but passport for identification (14.5 per cent of highly vocal community formed on polling stations experienced this violation). Ukrainian social media, calling itself “the 25 The second most common breach was per cent movement” in a reference to voters showing their completed ballot to Poroshenko’s share of the vote in the run- election officials, which was observed at 5 off. Members of this community posted per cent of polling stations. OPORA also hundreds ego-boosting or self-pitying © 2019 The Swedish Institute of International Affairs 4 expressed major concerns about the non- National Bank are filing countersuits in an transparent funding of elections. attempt to prove large-scale fraud and obtain compensation from the oligarch and An oligarch connection his multiple companies. Both during the election campaign and Kolomoisky is claiming $2 billion from since, one of the biggest concerns Ukraine for what he considers the unlawful surrounding Zelensky has been his nationalization of his bank. The National connection with the oligarch Igor Bank spent 155 billion hryvnias (over €5 Kolomoisky. Kolomoisky’s media empire billion) recapitalizing the ailing bank in supported Zelensky during the election and 2016. PrivatBank is countersuing the two have had a close business and Kolomoisky in the US state of Delaware, personal connection since 2012, when alleging large-scale fraud and money Zelensky’s company, Kvartal 95, signed a laundering. Its complaint also mentions an contract with 1+1 for the production of FBI investigation into the oligarch. programmes such as situation comedies and films, most notably his eponymous In an unrelated case, a provincial court comedy show. annulled the operating licence of SkyUp, a budget airline and successful rival of According to Schemes, an investigative Kolomoisky’s Ukraine International Airlines. television programme, Zelensky flew to see Investigative journalists discovered that the Kolomoisky in Geneva or Tel Aviv 13 times woman who won the case against SkyUp in the two years when Kolomoisky was had never flown with the budget airline and living in exile in fear of criminal prosecution did not file the lawsuit. The same court has in Ukraine. He returned home in May, after made rulings in Kolomoisky’s favour in the first round of the presidential election.
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