WMO OMM

DrDr JimJim SalingerSalinger President of CAgM National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Auckland, [email protected]

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 1 2009 WMO OMM • Observed trends in drought and extreme temperatures • Case studies : Europe 2003 and 2009 • projections • Changes in drought • Changes in extreme temperatures • Implications and conclusions

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 2 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 3 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 4 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 5 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 6 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 7 2009 WMO OMM

The extreme drought & heat wave that hit Europe in the summer of 2003 had enormous adverse social, economic & environmental effects, such as the death of thousands of vulnerable elderly people, the destruction of large areas of forests by fire, & effects on water ecosystems & . It caused power cuts and transport restrictions and a decreased agricultural production. The losses are estimated to exceed 13 billion euros. Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 8 2009 WMO OMM

Over Europe, the main sectors hit by the extreme climate conditions were the green fodder supply, the arable sector, the livestock sector & forestry. Drought affects the state of vegetation by lowering photosynthetic activity leading to a reduction in productivity, in particular for crops & fodder. It also affects forests, weakening trees & making them vulnerable to diseases & insect attacks.

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 9 2009 WMO OMM

Europe heatwaves 'soon routine‘: Scientists at the 's Hadley Centre say the 2003 European heatwave, the hottest ever recorded, could within just 60 years pass as "unusually cool".

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 10 2009 WMO OMM

The fires came on the back of an unprecedented period of hot weather. On Saturday 7th, Melbourne, a city of 4 million people, recorded 46.4°C its hottest day since records began 150 years ago. An all-time state record was set at Hopetoun, in the state’s north-west, when the temperature reached 48.8°C.

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 11 2009 WMO OMM

It has been a truly unbelievable event and the implications are very clear - it was the hottest day on record in the midst of the longest heatwave on record with 2009 having the driest start to a year on record in a 12 year drought which has been our hottest, longest and driest on record.

Dr David Jones Bureau of Meteorology

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 12 2009 WMO OMM

Australia: Horticulture faces 10 year recovery

Fruit Growers Victoria general manager John Wilson says it could be a decade before Victoria’s horticulture industry will fully recover from devastating bushfires still menacing the state.

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 13 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 14 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 15 2009 WMO OMM

• Very dependent on emissions scenario (beyond ~2300) – We are already committed to more change, but... – Serious emissions reductions now make a big difference

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 16 2009 WMO OMM

• Projected best estimates of warming 1.8 to 4.0°C

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 17 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 18 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 19 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 20 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 21 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 22 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 23 2009 WMO OMM

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 24 2009 WMO OMM

• There is a tendency for drying of mid-continental areas during summer, indicating a greater risk of drought

• It is very likely that heatwaves will become more intense, more frequent and long lasting in a future warmer climate

• Decreases in frost days are projected to occur almost everywhere in middle and high latitudes

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 25 2009 WMO OMM

Some extreme weather events have changed in frequency and/or intensity over the last 50 years: • It is very likely that cold days, cold nights and frosts have become less frequent over most land areas, while hot days and hot nights have become more frequent. • It is likely that heat waves have become more frequent over most land areas. • From 1900 to 2005 have been observed in precipitation amount in many large regions. • Precipitation declined in the Sahel, the Mediterranean, southern Africa and parts of southern Asia. • Globally, the area affected by drought has likely increased since the 1970s.

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 26 2009 WMO OMM

During the 21st century:

• It is very likely that hot extremes and heat waves will become more frequent. •It is very likely that cold days and frost days will decrease almost everywhere. • Dry extremes are projected to become more severe in areas where mean precipitation is projected to decrease. • Increased runs of dry days occur in large areas of the subtropics, the Mediterranean, and lower mid-latitudes. • Overall drought and extremes of high temperatures are projected to increase globally.

Workshop on Drought and Extreme Temperatures, Beijing, 16-17 February 27 2009