Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) Agriculture & Fisheries Unit MARS – FOOD Action Bulletin № 1, 2007

CROP MONITORING for FOOD SECURITY

South and East Mediterranean Countries

Situation at the End of January 2007 Agro-meteorological overview for winter crops

Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries

Introduction

The present Bulletin is dedicated to the analysis of the agro-meteorological situation in the non-European countries of the Production and Yield of Wheat in 2005 Mediterranean basin during the period from the beginning of December 2006 to the end of January 2007. This is a period for the (FAOSTAT data, last accessed 01.02.2006) first stages of winter crops development in most countries of the region. Practically in all countries, wheat and barley are the main Country Production, Yield, winter crops. Additionally, sugar beets are cultivated in winter in Israel, as well as potatoes in Morocco. The main part of winter 1000 tons t/ha crops is cultivated in rain-fed conditions. In Israel, Libya and Syria about 20-30% of winter cereal crops and in Egypt and Saudi Algeria Arabia practically all crops are irrigated. The present Bulletin is devoted to the analysis of the meteorological conditions only for 2600 1,4 winter wheat. Egypt 8141 6,5 Israel 190 2,5 The monitoring of the agro-meteorological situation is based on the analysis of the following dekadal data: minimal, maximal and Jordan 33 1,4 average air temperature, sums of precipitation and global radiation, dekadal values of the climatic water balance, dekadal maps of Lebanon the Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes (NDVI), dekadal maps of the Dry Matter Production. Meteorological data are 120 2,6 derived from the outputs of the numerical meteorological model from ECMWF (UK), and were prepared for analysis by Libya 125 0,8 METEOCONSULT (NL). SPOT-VEGETATION data were used as a basis for calculation of the remote sensing indicators of crop Morocco 3043 1,0 growth. Data were preprocessed by VITO (BE). After that, dekadal maximal NDVI values were weighted for pixels within which Palestine Auth. 50 2,3 winter crops are cultivated, and then – were weighted again at country level. Thus, weighted NDVI values were used as an indicator Saudi Arabia of crop status. Dry Matter Production maps were calculated by VITO based on SPOT-VEGETATION data and information about 2400 5,2 global radiation, applying the Monteith approach. Syria 4669 2,5 The Bulletin has the following structure. The first pages contain the main results of the analysis. The following pages are dedicated Tunisia 1360 1,6 to the analysis of separate indicators of the crop growth during the period of analysis. Green color indicates figures, which are higher than The background information is given in the following table (statistical data for the year 2006 is not available yet). normal and red color indicates figures, which are lower than normal.

This is a Bulletin prepared by the MARS-FOOD action, Agriculture & Fisheries Unit, IPSC, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

Acknowledgements. The following organizations were involved in data supply: VITO (BE), METEOCONSULT (NL), ECMWF (UK). Disclaimer. The geographical borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Legal Notice. Neither the EC nor any person acting on behalf of the commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information.

Contact: Jacques Delincé, Head of the Agriculture and Fisheries Unit, fax: +39-0332-789029 Olivier Leo, MARS-FOOD Action leader, [email protected] Igor Savin, Bulletin author, [email protected]

2 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries Highlights

Meteorological conditions during December 2006 -January 2007 were favorable for winter crops and, in general, close to the previous season in all countries, excepting Morocco and some regions of Algeria, where the situation was worse. The wheat yield 2007 is likely to be better or close to normal in all countries of the region. Only in Morocco the yield is likely to by lower than normal.

Country by Country Algeria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year. Egypt The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 and the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 were close to the previous year.

Israel The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly worse than in the previous season. Jordan The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and slightly better than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season. Lebanon The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season. Libya The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. However, remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was better than in the previous year.

Morocco The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were worse than in the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was worse than in the previous year.

Palestine Auth. The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and close to the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season.

Saudi Arabia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year.

Syria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season. Tunisia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but worse than in the previous year. However, the remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly better than in the previous year. The situation is detailed in the following pages 3 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries

Results of the analysis Comparing with previous season Wheat Yield Extreme cold air temperature was not observed over cropping areas of the countries of the region. The Country Meteorological Crop status at 2007 moisture regime during December-January was better as compared with the previous year in Jordan. It was conditions during the end of expectation, worse in Maghreb countries and Syria, and it was close to the previous year in other countries (see the map October-January January 2007 (t/ha) below). In general, the meteorological conditions during December 2006 – January 2007 were favorable for Algeria - = 1.0-1.4 winter crops development in the main cropping areas of the region. The amount of precipitation was Egypt 6.1-6.3 unfavorable for rain-fed winter crops only in Saudi Arabia, and in Morocco. = =

The meteorological conditions for the whole current season (October-January) were worse than in previous Israel - - 1.9-2.4

season in Algeria, Israel, and Morocco, and were better in Jordan. Jordan 1.2-1.4 + = The analysis of crop growth indicators shows that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 seems to Lebanon = = 2.3-2.7 be worse than in previous year in Israel, and Morocco, seems to be better in Libya, and Tunisia, and close to Libya 0.7-0.9 the previous year in other countries of the region. = +

A summary of the analysis of meteorological conditions for winter cereals is given in the Table. Morocco - - 0.7-1.2

The last column of the table represents the winter wheat yield 2007 expectation (green figures indicates Palestine Auth. 2.4-3.1 = = higher, red – lower, and black – close to normal values). These figures were obtained by the analysis of all Saudi Arabia = = - crop growth indicators, mentioned in the Bulletin (see last page). The yield expectation values are only Syria 2.5-3.1 indicative. = = Tunisia = + 1.8-2.2

Favorability of meteorological conditions for winter crop during December 2006-January 2007 (color on the map shows favorability and main limitations (see legend on the left)) Comparison with the conditions of the previous season (hatchings show units, where: br – better radiation regime; bm – better moisture regime; wr – worse radiation regime; wm – worse moisture regime; nodif – conditions are close to the previous year) (grey boundaries show units with croplands)

Mediterranean Sea Lebanon Syria Tunisia Israel Palestine Auth. Jordan Morocco Algeria S. Arabia Libya Egypt

4 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries

Global Radiation and Air Temperature Global radiation Comparing with (October-January) previous season The amount of radiation was close to optimal for winter crops in all countries of the region. The cumulated radiation during difference in % December-January (see the map below) was higher or close to the previous year in most countries of the region. The amount of Algeria +3 +12 radiation received by crops from the beginning of current season is higher than in previous season in the most countries of the Egypt -2 +1 region (see the table). 0 0 0 Israel Average daily temperature was near +5+10 C practically everywhere. Tmin was below 0 C (-1-2 C) in some dekads during +3 +9 December-January only in Morocco, Algeria, Lebanon, Syria, and Jordan. Tmax was not extreme during the period under analysis. Jordan -1 +3 The air temperature in general was higher than in the previous season in Maghreb countries, and it was lower in Jordan, eastern Lebanon +4+10 Syria, and Lebanon. Libya +1 +3 Morocco 2 +7 +14 Difference in Global Radiation Sum (kJ/m ) between current and previous Palestine Auth. +2 +3 seasons (December-January). Cross hatching shows regions, where this Maximal and Minimal Air Temperature difference was higher than 10%, and vertical hatching –than 5%. Algeria Saudi Arabia +1 +4 (grey boundaries show units with croplands) 50 Syria +7+10 extreme air temperature 40 Tunisia +5 +9

30

20 degree C 10

0

-10 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 dekad

tmax 2005/2006 tmax 2006/2007 tmin 2005/2006 tmin 2006/2007

Mediterranean Sea Syria Lebanon Tunisia Israel Palestine Auth. Jordan Morocco Algeria Egypt Libya S. Arabia

5 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries Precipitation Sum Precipitation was scarce during December-January in many countries of the region. Main part of precipitation took place in form Precipitation for rain- Comparing with of rain, but little part of precipitation in mountainous Morocco and eastern Syria was in form of snow. Heavy rains took place fed winter crops previous season during December-January only in near cost zone of central Algeria. (October-January) In general, the amount of precipitation during December-January was slightly higher than normal in western Algeria, lower than Algeria - normal in Morocco, and eastern Syria and close to normal in other countries. Simultaneously the amount of precipitation was Egypt = higher comparing with the previous year in eastern Libya, and it was lower in Tunisia, Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Syria, and Israel - Morocco (see the map below). Jordan The amount of precipitation for the whole current vegetative season (October-January) is higher than normal in Tunisia, Jordan, +

and eastern Syria, and lower – in Morocco, Algeria, Israel, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. Less precipitation comparing with the Lebanon =

previous year was observed in Algeria, Israel, and Morocco, and more – in Jordan (see the table). Libya = Difference in Precipitation Sum (mm) between current and previous Morocco - seasons (December-January). Cross hatching shows regions with Cumulated Precipitation Palestine Auth. = amount of precipitation more than 120 mm during the period Morocco Saudi Arabia = December-January, vertical hatching – with 60-120 mm of 500 Syria precipitation . (grey boundaries show units with croplands). = 400 Tunisia = - “heavy” rains (more than 100 mm of precipitation per dekad) 300 mm 200

100

0 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 dekad

pre 2005/2006 pre 2006/2007 pre long-term average

Mediterranean Sea Syria Lebanon Tunisia Israel Palestine Auth. Morocco Jordan Algeria Libya Egypt S. Arabia

6 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries Climatic Water Balance The cumulated Climatic Water Balance (CWB) for December-January was positive for croplands of all countries of the region CWB for rain-fed Comparing with excluding Egypt, eastern Libya, Saudi Arabia, and western Morocco. winter crops previous season The climatic water balance situation during December-January was worse than long-term average data for croplands in Syria, and (October-January) Morocco, and it was close to the average values in other countries. The CWB during the period under analysis was worse than in the Algeria - previous year in Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Syria, and Palestine Auth. It was close to the previous year in other Egypt = countries of the region (see the map below). Israel - The CWB cumulated for the whole current vegetative season (October-January) was positive for croplands of all countries of the Jordan region excluding Egypt, Libya, western Morocco, and Saudi Arabia. At the end of January, the CWB situation was better than long- +

term average in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and Tunisia, and worse in Saudi Arabia. Simultaneously, the situation with CWB at the end of Lebanon -

January 2007 was worse than in the previous season in Algeria, Israel, Lebanon, Morocco, and it was better only in Jordan (see the Libya = table). Morocco - Difference in Climatic Water Balance (mm) for the period December- Palestine Auth. =

January between current and previous season. Vertical hatching shows Cumulated Climatic Water Balance Saudi Arabia = Algeria regions with positive Climatic Water Balance. Syria = (grey boundaries show units with croplands) 200 Tunisia 100 = 0 -100 -200 -300 mm -400 -500 -600 -700 -800 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 dekad

cwb 2005/2006 cwb 2006/2007 cwb long-term average

Mediterranean Sea

Lebanon Syria Tunisia Israel Algeria Palestine Auth. Jordan Morocco Libya Egypt S. Arabia

7 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries

Remote Sensing Indicators

The analysis of the NDVI profile’s behavior shows that the crop status at the end of January 2007 was better comparing with the previous year only in Libya, and Tunisia. The NDVI indicates worse crop status than in the previous year in Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Syria. The NDVI curves shows that the winter crop development in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia is close to the season 2002/2003, in Jordan it is close to the season 1999/2000, in Israel – to 2003/2004 season, in Algeria, and Morocco – to the season 2001/2002, in Syria – to the season 2004/2005, and in Lebanon, Palestine Auth., and Saudi Arabia - to the previous season.

Examples of weighted NDVI profiles for areas with

winter wheat and for country level (“min” and Remote sensing Tunisia - winter wheat indicators of winter NDVI in 2007 Year –analogue “max” are absolute extremes for the period 1999- comparing with for the NDVI crops status 2006) 0.8 previous season curve behavior

0.7 (current season)

0.6 Algeria = 2002 Israel - winter wheat 0.5 Egypt 2003 = 0.8 0.4 NDVI Israel - 2004 0.7 0.3 Jordan 2000 0.6 0.2 -

0.5 0.1 Lebanon = 2006

0.4 0 NDVI Libya + 2003 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 0.3 dekads Morocco - 2002 0.2 2005/2006 2006/2007 min max Palestine Auth. 2006 0.1 =

0 Saudi Arabia = 2006 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 dekads Syria - 2005

2005/2006 2006/2007 min max Tunisia + 2003

Morocco - winter wheat

0.8

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 NDVI 0.3

0.2

0.1 0 Sep1 Oct1 Nov1 Dec1 Jan1 Feb1 Mar1 Apr1 May1 Jun1 Jul1 Aug1 dekads 2005/2006 2006/2007 min max 8 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries

Dry Matter Production modeling

The results of the Dry Matter Production (DMP) modeling demonstrate the better situation than in previous season at the end of January in winter cropping regions of Algeria, Israel, Jordan, Palestine Auth., Libya, and Tunisia. The situation in other countries of the region is close to the previous year. The DMP shows that in general the situation is not extreme in all countries of the region, excluding some regions of Morocco and Algeria, where the situation is significantly worse than in the previous season (see the map below). The cumulated DMP curves show that the winter crop development in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia is similar to the season 2002/2003, in Israel, Palestine Auth., and Morocco – it is close to the season 2000/2001, in Jordan – to the season 1998/1999, in Algeria – to the 2003/2004 season, and in other countries of the region - to the previous season.

Examples of weighted DMP profiles for areas with Libya - wheat Dry matter production winter wheat and for country level (“min” and DMP at the end of 1400000 modeling Year –analogue January 2007 “max” are absolute extremes for the period 1999- (only for areas with for the DMP curve 1200000 comparing with winter crop) behavior 2006) previous season 1000000

800000 Algeria + 2004 Palestine Auth. - wheat 600000 Egypt = 2003 1600000 400000 Israel 2001 1400000 + 200000 1200000 Cumulated DMP (relative values) Jordan + 1999 0 1000000 Oct1 Oct3 Nov2 Dec1 Dec3 Jan2 Feb1 Feb3 Mar2 Apr1 Apr3 May2 Jun1 Jun3 Lebanon = 2006 800000 dekads Libya + 2003 600000 2006 2007 min max Morocco = 2001 400000 Palestine Auth. 2001 200000 + Cumulated DMP (relative values) 0 Saudi Arabia = 2006 Oct1 Oct3 Nov2 Dec1 Dec3 Jan2 Feb1 Feb3 Mar2 Apr1 Apr3 May2 Jun1 Jun3 dekads Syria = 2006

2006 2007 min max Tunisia + 2003

Morocco - wheat

1600000

1400000 1200000 1000000 800000 600000

400000

200000 Cumulated DMP (relative values) 0 Oct1 Oct3 Nov2 Dec1 Dec3 Jan2 Feb1 Feb3 Mar2 Apr1 Apr3 May2 Jun1 Jun3 dekads 2006 2007 min max 9 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries

Yield Prediction The preliminary winter wheat yield 2007 figures were obtained based on regression analysis between the statistical yield values and separate crop growth indicators. The indicators selected were: NDVI time profile, amount of precipitation cumulated for the period from October to January, cumulated climatic water balance for the same period (CWB), and the results of dry matter (DMP) accumulation modeling (cumulated for the same period). These indicators were first aggregated for the areas with winter wheat at country level. It was found that statistical yields have no significant correlation with CWB values at the end of January for all countries of the region. Statistically significant regression equations were found for some countries between yield and cumulated DMP, and between yield and cumulated precipitation. These equations were applied for the calculation of the wheat yield 2007. The results are presented in the table below. The results of the similarity analysis (search of the year with the similar behavior of the indicator) for the Precipitation, NDVI and DMP curves were used as additional information. The square sums of deviation between the indicator in current and other seasons, as well as extreme deviation values were used for the definition of the year- analogue. The year – analogues for the countries of the region, and corresponding statistical yield figures are presented in the table. The final wheat yield expectation figures were obtained through the expert analysis of all yield prediction values, taking into consideration the qualitative analysis of other meteorological indicators. These values of yield expectation are preliminary, and should be used with caution. They will be updated in the next Bulletin.

Use of the main crop growth indicators for winter wheat yield prediction at the end of January 2007

crop growth indicator & winter wheat yield expectation based on it’s analysis (t/ha) Linear regression with Linear regression Year-analogue for Year-analogue Year-analogue for Wheat yield Precipitation sum for the with DMP cumulated Cumulated for the for NDVI curve Cumulated for the expectation country period from October to for October-January season Precipitation behavior season Dry Matter for 2007 January curve behavior production curve (t/ha) behavior yield R2 yield R2 year yield year yield year yield Algeria 1.0 0.6077 - - 1996 1.3 2002 1.1 2004 1.4 1.0-1.4 Egypt - - 6.2 0.912 - - 2003 6.2 2003 6.2 6.1-6.3 Israel 1.9 0.6523 1.5 0.4093 1988 2.4 2004 2.4 2001 1.9 1.9-2.4 Jordan - - 1.2 0.6322 2003 1.4 2000 1.4 1999 1.3 1.2-1.4 Lebanon 2.5 0.4536 2.7 0.8081 1992 2.3 2006 - 2006 - 2.3-2.7 Libya - - - - 2005 0.8 2003 0.8 2003 0.8 0.7-0.9 Morocco 0.7 0.5214 - - 1987 1.0 2002 1.3 2001 1.2 0.7-1.2 Palestine Auth. - - 3.1 0.3269 2003 2006 - 2001 2.4 2.4-3.1 Saudi Arabia ------2006 - 2006 - - Syria - - 3.1 0.5597 2006 - 2005 2.5 2006 - 2.5-3.1 Tunisia 2.0 0.5633 1.8 0.358 2004 1.8 2003 2.2 2003 2.2 1.8-2.2

10