Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen (IPSC) Agriculture & Fisheries Unit MARS – FOOD Action Bulletin № 1, 2007 CROP MONITORING for FOOD SECURITY South and East Mediterranean Countries Situation at the End of January 2007 Agro-meteorological overview for winter crops Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries Introduction The present Bulletin is dedicated to the analysis of the agro-meteorological situation in the non-European countries of the Production and Yield of Wheat in 2005 Mediterranean basin during the period from the beginning of December 2006 to the end of January 2007. This is a period for the (FAOSTAT data, last accessed 01.02.2006) first stages of winter crops development in most countries of the region. Practically in all countries, wheat and barley are the main Country Production, Yield, winter crops. Additionally, sugar beets are cultivated in winter in Israel, as well as potatoes in Morocco. The main part of winter 1000 tons t/ha crops is cultivated in rain-fed conditions. In Israel, Libya and Syria about 20-30% of winter cereal crops and in Egypt and Saudi Algeria Arabia practically all crops are irrigated. The present Bulletin is devoted to the analysis of the meteorological conditions only for 2600 1,4 winter wheat. Egypt 8141 6,5 Israel 190 2,5 The monitoring of the agro-meteorological situation is based on the analysis of the following dekadal data: minimal, maximal and Jordan 33 1,4 average air temperature, sums of precipitation and global radiation, dekadal values of the climatic water balance, dekadal maps of Lebanon the Normalized Difference Vegetation Indexes (NDVI), dekadal maps of the Dry Matter Production. Meteorological data are 120 2,6 derived from the outputs of the numerical meteorological model from ECMWF (UK), and were prepared for analysis by Libya 125 0,8 METEOCONSULT (NL). SPOT-VEGETATION data were used as a basis for calculation of the remote sensing indicators of crop Morocco 3043 1,0 growth. Data were preprocessed by VITO (BE). After that, dekadal maximal NDVI values were weighted for pixels within which Palestine Auth. 50 2,3 winter crops are cultivated, and then – were weighted again at country level. Thus, weighted NDVI values were used as an indicator Saudi Arabia of crop status. Dry Matter Production maps were calculated by VITO based on SPOT-VEGETATION data and information about 2400 5,2 global radiation, applying the Monteith approach. Syria 4669 2,5 The Bulletin has the following structure. The first pages contain the main results of the analysis. The following pages are dedicated Tunisia 1360 1,6 to the analysis of separate indicators of the crop growth during the period of analysis. Green color indicates figures, which are higher than The background information is given in the following table (statistical data for the year 2006 is not available yet). normal and red color indicates figures, which are lower than normal. This is a Bulletin prepared by the MARS-FOOD action, Agriculture & Fisheries Unit, IPSC, Joint Research Centre, European Commission. Acknowledgements. The following organizations were involved in data supply: VITO (BE), METEOCONSULT (NL), ECMWF (UK). Disclaimer. The geographical borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. These boundaries do not necessarily reflect the official EC position. Legal Notice. Neither the EC nor any person acting on behalf of the commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information. Contact: Jacques Delincé, Head of the Agriculture and Fisheries Unit, fax: +39-0332-789029 Olivier Leo, MARS-FOOD Action leader, [email protected] Igor Savin, Bulletin author, [email protected] 2 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries Highlights Meteorological conditions during December 2006 -January 2007 were favorable for winter crops and, in general, close to the previous season in all countries, excepting Morocco and some regions of Algeria, where the situation was worse. The wheat yield 2007 is likely to be better or close to normal in all countries of the region. Only in Morocco the yield is likely to by lower than normal. Country by Country Algeria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year. Egypt The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 and the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 were close to the previous year. Israel The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly worse than in the previous season. Jordan The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and slightly better than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season. Lebanon The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season. Libya The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. However, remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was better than in the previous year. Morocco The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were worse than in the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was worse than in the previous year. Palestine Auth. The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, and close to the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season. Saudi Arabia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were close to the previous year. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous year. Syria The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but slightly worse than in the previous season. Remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was close to the previous season. Tunisia The meteorological conditions during December 2006 –January 2007 were favorable for winter crops development, but worse than in the previous year. However, the remote sensing indicators show that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 was slightly better than in the previous year. The situation is detailed in the following pages 3 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries Results of the analysis Comparing with previous season Wheat Yield Extreme cold air temperature was not observed over cropping areas of the countries of the region. The Country Meteorological Crop status at 2007 moisture regime during December-January was better as compared with the previous year in Jordan. It was conditions during the end of expectation, worse in Maghreb countries and Syria, and it was close to the previous year in other countries (see the map October-January January 2007 (t/ha) below). In general, the meteorological conditions during December 2006 – January 2007 were favorable for Algeria - = 1.0-1.4 winter crops development in the main cropping areas of the region. The amount of precipitation was Egypt 6.1-6.3 unfavorable for rain-fed winter crops only in Saudi Arabia, and in Morocco. = = The meteorological conditions for the whole current season (October-January) were worse than in previous Israel - - 1.9-2.4 season in Algeria, Israel, and Morocco, and were better in Jordan. Jordan 1.2-1.4 + = The analysis of crop growth indicators shows that the winter crop status at the end of January 2007 seems to Lebanon = = 2.3-2.7 be worse than in previous year in Israel, and Morocco, seems to be better in Libya, and Tunisia, and close to Libya 0.7-0.9 the previous year in other countries of the region. = + A summary of the analysis of meteorological conditions for winter cereals is given in the Table. Morocco - - 0.7-1.2 The last column of the table represents the winter wheat yield 2007 expectation (green figures indicates Palestine Auth. 2.4-3.1 = = higher, red – lower, and black – close to normal values). These figures were obtained by the analysis of all Saudi Arabia = = - crop growth indicators, mentioned in the Bulletin (see last page). The yield expectation values are only Syria 2.5-3.1 indicative. = = Tunisia = + 1.8-2.2 Favorability of meteorological conditions for winter crop during December 2006-January 2007 (color on the map shows favorability and main limitations (see legend on the left)) Comparison with the conditions of the previous season (hatchings show units, where: br – better radiation regime; bm – better moisture regime; wr – worse radiation regime; wm – worse moisture regime; nodif – conditions are close to the previous year) (grey boundaries show units with croplands) Mediterranean Sea Lebanon Syria Tunisia Israel Palestine Auth. Jordan Morocco Algeria S. Arabia Libya Egypt 4 Agro meteorological Bulletin №1, 2007. South and East Mediterranean Countries Global Radiation and Air Temperature Global radiation Comparing with (October-January) previous season The amount of radiation was close to optimal for winter crops in all countries of the region. The cumulated radiation during difference in % December-January (see the map below) was higher or close to the previous year in most countries of the region.