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Multifamily Residential in Australia

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Multifamily Residential in Australia Insights and Research Investment Highlight | March 2017 Multifamily Residential in Australia SYNOPSIS Overview The following research paper has been With Australian real estate continuing to attract significant Disclaimer prepared by Emerge Capital Partners, and offshore investment, increased competition for prime represents our house views. commercial assets is leading institutional investors to seek out Given the current conditions of the alternative asset classes with attractive characteristics. Situation to Australian residential market, is there an be Assessed opportunity for Multifamily Residential Multifamily Residential is often mentioned as a potentially (“MFR”) as an asset class? attractive sector, due to its success in a number of offshore markets including North America, Japan and mainland Origins in affordable housing; Europe. However, to date institutional investment in Focussed on gateway cities; Observations Australian residential has been fairly limited, prompting from Mature Driven by demographics & supply debate about the factors that are holding investment back in Markets constraints; the local market. (USA, Japan, Policy environment important; Europe) Attractive investment characterised by This research paper seeks to examine the typical stable income profile. characteristics and drivers of Multifamily Residential in offshore markets, and to understand its applicability to the Strong demand for rental housing; Australian market. Supply constraints in inner city areas; Drivers in Strong rental growth & low vacancy; What is Multifamily Residential? Australia Growing acceptance of apartment Multifamily Residential refers to a multi-unit residential living; building (e.g. an apartment building) owned by a single entity. Investor appetite for new assets. Individual dwellings are rented to residents, typically on the Higher development returns to strata open market, but in some instances to special market sectors product crowd out development; (e.g. social and affordable housing, military housing). Investors and occupants need to In mature markets, product varies widely in terms of location Challenges in understand new asset class; Australia (inner urban to suburban), density (low rise to high rise) and Policy environment biased to home positioning (affordable housing to premium product). In the ownership & strata buyers; world’s largest securitised market, the US, the market is fairly No experienced operators. distinctly separated into affordable housing, known as Low Short Term: Ad-hoc growth in sector Income Tax Credit Housing, and premium product, which has mainly driven by strategic development grown recently due the higher proportion of households plays and/or distressed projects. renting for longer. Outlook Long Term: Strong growth expected over the longer term, supported by changes to the policy environment at a Federal and State level. The market environment appears ripe for Multifamily Residential to begin emerging Key as an asset class in Australia. The growth in Takeaway this asset class would be greatly aided by policy changes, which can be promoted through industry advocacy. Insights and Research Multifamily Residential in Australia Investment Characteristics Multifamily Residential in the UK Globally, multifamily residential real estate funds have experienced a period of expansion in recent years. Multifamily Although the market is far from mature, Multifamily is usually viewed as attractive to institutional investors due to: Residential is beginning to emerge as an asset class in the Stable Income Profile: Rental income is typically stable United Kingdom, driven by regulatory and economic due to the relatively inelastic demand for housing; changes. Attractive Risk Adjusted Returns: Total returns Parallels may be drawn between the historical limitations of typically have lower standard deviations than other Multifamily in the United Kingdom, and those in Australia. property classes; In particular, government policies that favour home ownership / strata investment have crowded out Portfolio Diversification: Allows diversification across institutional investors in both markets. sectors and geographies to spread risk; and However, recent changes to tax treatment of strata investors Inflation Hedging: Residential often viewed as an in the United Kingdom are expected to significantly cool effective inflation hedge. demand from smaller investors. To maintain investment in From a development perspective, multifamily is also attractive new housing, the Government is implementing a suite of as it: recommendations from the Montague Report (2012) aimed Increases Speed of Development: Removes the at increasing institutional investment in the sector. requirement to meet pre-sales hurdles; These policies are beginning to take effect, with a number Mitigates Settlement Risk: Forward sale to an of projects now coming to market, including the institutional buyer mitigates settlement risk; and redevelopment of several council housing estates. This shift Retains Control: Development above an existing asset policy stance may be indicative of the change required in (e.g. shopping centre) allows an owner to retain control, Australia for multifamily to become attractive asset class. mitigating risks associated with operational requirements or expansion potential of the underlying asset. Observations from Mature Markets Key observations from mature multifamily markets including the US, Germany, and Japan, include: Origins in Affordable Housing: Mature multifamily markets tend to have their origins in affordable housing due to government policies aimed at promoting supply. Focused on Gateway Cities: Multifamily tends to be concentrated in gateway cities, where housing affordability is low, and population growth and limits on new supply underpin strong rental growth and low vacancies. Driven by Demographics & Supply Constraints: Key success drivers appear to be demographic demand drivers Factors Supporting Multifamily in Australia (e.g. high formation of rental households), restrictions on new supply, and a supportive policy environment. When considering the Australian market, there are a number Policy Environment is Important: A policy of factors that suggest Multifamily Residential may be environment that supports and incentivises institutional attractive: investment in residential is a common driver across mature Demand for Rental Housing: Australia is experiencing a markets. structural shift toward lower home ownership, with Product Varies to Meet Market Demand: MFR product increased demand for rental housing driven by varies widely in terms of form (low to high density) and affordability issues. This demand is further compounded market positioning (affordable to premium). Developers by the increasing population of Australia’s key capital will typically design for local market conditions, with rents cities. / leases designed to meet the market. Insights and Research Multifamily Residential in Australia Supply Constraints: There is a general undersupply of Investor Acceptance of Asset Class: Early investors are rental housing, particularly in the inner areas of the likely to require higher returns for an asset class with no gateway cities Sydney and Melbourne, and new supply is local track record, making development even more restricted due to site availability and planning controls. challenging. In this environment, Multifamily assets are Market Metrics: As a result of the supply and demand also illiquid in nature and appreciation is notional unless metrics, Australian cities have demonstrated strong rental the sales are realised. growth and low vacancy rates, which compare favorably to Limited Policy Support: State and federal policy is mature Multifamily markets. currently heavily biased towards home ownership and Growing Acceptance of Apartment Living: The recent strata investors (e.g. beneficial tax treatment for retail apartment boom, driven by a long-term trend towards investors including negative gearing and capital gains tax), inner urban living, indicates a growing acceptance of distorting the market in favour of strata investment. There apartment product in Australia, which is more amenable to is limited support for institutional investment in residential Multifamily product. outside of social and affordable housing. Investor Appetite for New Assets: A shortage of No Experienced Operators: Multifamily Residential is traditional asset classes is pushing up prices, stimulating challenging to manage due to the number of tenants, but increased investor interest in alternative assets effective management is crucial for successful funds. There are currently no experienced operators with a track Challenges for Multifamily in Australia record in Australia. Establishing a credible and effective platform will require investment and a minimum scale. Despite the supporting factors, a number of challenges exist: Higher Returns from Strata Development: Given the strong demand for residential product from strata buyers, the yields in the strata market are significantly lower than would be accepted by multifamily investors (Figure 1). All other things being equal, this means that development returns to strata development will be higher, which suggests that strata development may be crowding out multifamily product. Figure 1: Strata Yields (Aus & UK) vs. Multifamily Yields (%, Y/E Dec 2015) 6% Lower strata yields may crowd out MFR 5.1% 5% development 4.6% 4.5% 4% 3.6% Conclusions 3%
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