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California State University, Northridge CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE Unemployment, Immigration and the Rise of the National Front in France A graduate project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements For the degree of Master of Arts in Political Science By Sigfredo Ramos Martinez May 2019 The graduate project of Sigfredo Ramos Martinez is Approved: _______________________ ________________ Dr. Jennifer DeMaio Date _______________________ ________________ Dr. Tyler Hughes Date _______________________ ________________ Dr. Alexandra Cole Macias, Chair Date CALIFORNIA STATE UNIVERSITY, NORTHRIDGE ii Table of Contents Signature Page ii List of Tables iv List of Figures v Abstract vi Part I 1 Introduction 1 Party Leadership and Organizational Capacity 4 Political Opportunity Structure 9 The European Union, Unemployment and Immigration 14 Voting for the National Front 17 Part II 23 Data Analysis 23 Electoral results 24 First Environmental Factor: Unemployment 28 Second Environmental Factor: Immigration 33 Part III 36 Conclusion 36 Bibliography 38 iii List of Tables Table Page 1 Comparison of Electoral Support base (%) 1987 20 2 Percentage votes of National Front by Demographic 1988,20017 & 2012 21 3 The Percentage and Number votes of National Front Legislative Elections 1986-1997 24 4 Percentage and Number support for the FN during 2002-2017 Legislative Elections 26 5 Bivariate Correlation For Unemployment During Legislative Election Years 30 6 Bivariate Correlation Analysis for Immigration and Party Votes Received 34 iv List of Figures Figure Page 1 National Unemployment in France During Legislative Elections 1986-2017 28 2 Amount of Immigrants arriving in France During Legislative Election Years 1986-2017 32 v Abstract Unemployment, Immigration and the Rise of the National Front in France By Sigfredo Ramos Martinez Master of Arts in Political Science The National Front which was founded in 1972, has become one of the oldest continuously running political parties in France. It has also become a model for all European parties of the far right. Although it has never been in government, the National Front has slowly expanded over time and was on the verge of winning the French presidency in 2017. This paper will take a look at some of the factors that have helped the party establish itself in French politics. While some attention will be paid to the manner in which the party has established itself and how it was able to do, the main focus of this paper is the influence of unemployment and immigration as the top two most important issues for voters of the National Front. The paper will seek to determine if there is a correlation between unemployment and immigration rates in France, and electoral support for the National Front. vi PART I Introduction In the 1970s, a new political party appeared on the French political stage bent on challenging the established political parties of the left and the right alike. This new “extreme party of the right” was the National Front, led by a veteran of both the wars in Indochina (1946- 1954) and of Algerian Independence (1954-1962), Jean Marie Le Pen. Under his leadership, the National Front slowly grew from a fringe party to a political contender. The party has contested French presidential elections four times, and in two of these presidential elections they made it to the second round. The 2017 presidential election marked the closest the party has ever been to the presidential palace. The rise of the National Front has been the topic of numerous research articles, with many scholars studying the different factors used to explain their rise in French politics. There are three factors which I attribute to the rise of the party. First there is what one could call a personal factor which is the leadership of Jean Marie Le Pen (and eventually his daughter Marine Le Pen) as well as the organizational capacity of the party. Second there are factors that are internal to the French political system. These factors are political cleavages and the importance of media access in the system. Third, and last there is what I would call the environmental factor. This third factor can be split into two categories, the first being factors from outside the French political system which have had an impact on French society. An example of this is the rise of globalization and the centralization of power of the European Union in Brussels, which could be argued to have aided in a resurgence of right-wing populism throughout Europe. Secondly there are the factors that impact French politics and originate from within the country itself. Of these there are two main factors that I will argue have had great 1 effect on the rise of the party. The first of the two is the issue of immigration in France, which has been present since the 1980s. The National Front has used this issue several times since decolonization, and up to the more recent Syrian refugee crisis. The second environmental factor is that of high unemployment levels in France. As France moved away from an industrial economy and transitioned to a more globalized and service-based market, many of the workers who worked in factories that were shut down found appeal in the National Front’s promise to bring those jobs back. In addition to these environmental factors which have contributed to the National Front, there have been smaller events which have helped improve the party’s electoral profile. Such events have been: the normalization of the party’s issue granted by media airtime and mainstream parties bringing the issues of the FN to the forefront. (Schain 1997). Scholars have suggested that the National Front has served as a prototype party for the European far right (Mudde 2007). Given this, it is important to understand the National Front in order to understand the other parties of the European far right. By studying how this party gained traction, it will be possible to look at other such parties and draw comparisons between the personal, institutional, and environmental factors that may have led to their rise. The aim of this paper is to focus on the internal environmental factors to see if there is a empirical relationship between rising unemployment & immigration, and the rise of the FN. This argument is not unheard of, there have been scholars who point to socioeconomic factors which may have helped push the National Front forward (Veugelers 1997, Perrineau 1988, Taylor 1997, et al.) as well as demographics of the FN’s voter base (ie. Perrineau 1988). Given the prevalence of the FN’s anti-immigration platform and its repetitive promise to bring working class jobs “back into France”, it seems wise to determine if there is a correlation 2 between the actual conditions and the support for the National Front. Such an analysis was applied to some of the explanations for Brexit, where unemployment in working class jobs and rising immigration were prevalent issues emphasized by the conservative proponents of the leave campaign (Calhoun 2017). Research found that there was actually no correlation between rising unemployment & immigration and voting for “Leave”. In terms of immigration, researchers have found that some of the areas with the least immigration (i.e. rural) tended to have voted ‘leave’ as compared to urban centers where immigration rates were substantially higher, yet these centers (ie. London) voted to remain. This paper will undertake a similar analysis and ask the question “are Unemployment or immigration levels correlated with the growth of the National Front”? It is also important to take note of the other factors that have influenced the rise of this party, such as the personal and institutional factors. This paper will take a brief look at these additional factors and their roles in the rise of the National Front in order to help give context to the rise and the solidification of the party in French politics. The leadership of the Le Pens, rise of anti-globalism, and the high unemployment and immigration levels in France are important to explain FN success. This work will examine these factors as well in order to determine the role they played in the growth of the party. 3 Party Leadership and Organizational Capacity The National Front is not a party that emerged organically but came about as a reaction to events and the ongoing failure of the far right in France to unite and win seats in government. The outcome of the second World War left a strong and negative view of not only fascism, but of the far right for most French people. After the war, the far-right parties of France were small and fragmented into groups. None of these parties could gain any traction due to the ties many officials in these parties had to the Vichy government that had been set up by and collaborated with the Nazi government (Williams 2011). The support that groups such as nationalists had shown these parties had diminished greatly. However, far right sentiment began to reappear during the decolonization era as France lost long time colonial possessions in Vietnam and throughout Africa. France’s military defeats prompted disgruntled former soldiers to form small political groups such as l’Ordre Nouveau and L’Occident. It was from the Ordre Nouveau that the National Front planted it’s roots. In the late 1970s the Ordre Nouveau sought to unify the French far right parties under one banner in order to create a strong presence in the French National Assembly. In June 1972, the Front National pour une Unite Francaise (UNFUF) was formed, then later in October of the same year, it was renamed the Front National (Stockemer 2017). The party’s most prominent members, Francois Duprat and Jean Marie Le Pen were both experienced politicians by the time the party had been formed.
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