Implementation of a Coastal Management Model at Kinvara Bay in the North Atlantic Ocean

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering

Article Implementation of a Coastal Management Model at Kinvara Bay in the North Atlantic Ocean

Catalin Anton 1, Carmen Gasparotti 1, Iulia Anton 2 and Eugen Rusu 3,* 1 Department of Naval Architecture, Faculty of Naval Architecture, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800008 Galati, Romania; [email protected] (C.A.); [email protected] (C.G.) 2 Department of Civil Engineering, School of Engineering & Informatics, National University of Ireland Galway, University Road, Galway H91HX31, Ireland; [email protected] 3 Department of Mechanical Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Dunarea de Jos University of Galati, 47 Domneasca Street, 800008 Galati, Romania * Correspondence: [email protected]

Received: 17 December 2019; Accepted: 19 January 2020; Published: 23 January 2020

Abstract: Applying a management model to coastal areas is always a challenge because of the multiple scenarios from which they can be addressed. The coastal zone represents a dynamic area, which can be analyzed using physical processes. However, it can also be analyzed from the perspective of land–sea interaction or the socio-economic activities that take place in the area. Last but not least, the coastal area holds great signiﬁcance for biodiversity, as well as for the communities that live there, their traditions and customs, and their cultural heritage, especially in the context of climate change and sea-level rise. In this context, the present paper aims to analyze the social and economic aspects of environmental protection issues and how these factors, identiﬁed by a series of indicators, can coexist together. The target area is Kinvara Bay, which is located south of the Atlantic’s Galway Bay, in the western part of Ireland.

Keywords: coastal zone; management model; Kinvara Bay; Atlantic Ocean; land-sea interaction

1. Introduction The phenomenon of globalization involves interaction between communities in diﬀerent locations, which causes physical boundaries separating states to diminish in importance when it comes to daily activities. The importance and value of the products and services that a community produces, the resources it allocates, and the sustainable way in which it develops its infrastructure and economy while preserving its cultural traditions represent its competitive value. Coastal areas are spaces in which activities are carried out at a much more dynamic pace, since competition between communities is much stronger. Several years ago, the environmental protection component became highly valued, representing a secondary objective in the management of most companies. Today, concepts such as transparency and responsibility, environmental health, and environmental protection are starting points in most analyses of macroeconomic and social strategies. In this sense, this stage of strategic analysis becomes the ﬁrst basic step of strategic management when considering both a company and a community [1]. The present paper refers to a multicriteria analysis of the coastal area of Kinvara Bay, located in the western part of the Republic of Ireland, and includes many factors related to the respective area, starting with economic, social, and environmental protection activities. A series of indicators was developed for each of these activities [2]. In this case, the development of a management model aims to highlight competitive advantages and, at the same time, identify the pressures and threats that some indicators exert on others. The model

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71; doi:10.3390/jmse8020071 www.mdpi.com/journal/jmse J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 2 of 15 is based on the PESTEL analysis (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Environmental, and Legal) [3]. A PESTEL analysis has various notions in the scientific literature, starting with PEST (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, and Technological) and STEPE (Socio-cultural, Technological, Economic, Political, and Environmental) [4]. Initially, this analysis was conceived by Aguilar as an analysis of political, social, technical, and economic factors (ETPS); it was then re-thought by Arnold Brown for the Life Insurance Institute (as STEP), but analysis of environmental changes was added later. After 1980, a legal dimension was introduced. For the analysis of Kinvara Bay, we considered three of the six factors of PESTEL, forgoing the political, technological, and legal factors. Most of the time, political factors are given the most importance. Government or regional policy decisions can affect economic and social development and may affect the environment or the emergence and implementation of new technologies. The political factor can, at the same time, be a progress factor and also a risk factor that could lead to major vulnerability. In general, there are several indicators analyzed when calculating the political factor. They refer to bureaucracy, level of corruption, freedom of the press, pluripartidism, free elections, and so forth. The reports analyzed by the authors, which are from the United Nations, World Bank, European Central Bank, Unicef, and the European Union, contain analyses of the political factor and situate the Republic of Ireland as a state that rigorously fulfills the criteria for political efficiency and the rule of law. The authors also analyzed the legislative provisions in the field of education, anti-trust, labor, discrimination, data protection, environmental protection and pollution, health and safety, competition regulation, fiscal policy (tax rates and incentives), intellectual property (copyright, patents), consumer protection, and e-commerce. First of all, it can be noticed that the Republic of Ireland has largely implemented the recommended directives and regulations approved by the European Parliament. The analyzed reports presented above did not reveal any legislative deficiency in the analyzed areas. In the coastal area of Kinvara Bay, technological factors were introduced within the economic factor as indicators of industry, economic performance, and energy. This strategic analysis of Kinvara Bay aims to identify the environment in which activities existing in the area are carried out, including the pressures that arise as a result of the action of natural or anthropic factors, which may weaken the area analyzed in the short, medium, and long term. Clearly, this analysis is a precondition, but it still presents some limitations in terms of measurement and evaluation. In this paper, we did not intend to carry out a quantitative measurement of the analyzed factors, taking into account the values generated by the analyzed activities (such as air quality analysis through the analysis of CO, SO2,O3, NOx, PM2.5, or PM10 emission values), but we did want to show the interactions between these activities that generate pressure, resulting in the vulnerability of some activities. We will take into account a statistical sampling technique in order to obtain a probabilistic approximation of the solution to a model, as in the case of the Monte Carlo simulation [5–7]. This simulation combines probability distributions based on existing relationships in models by testing multiple combinations of input variables and storing results for display.

2. Materials and Methods The Republic of Ireland has a local administration system, which includes county councils and city councils. Since 2014, the county and city councils have been replaced by a system of municipal districts, which integrate the governance of cities and counties. At the county or city level, there are 31 city and county councils with integrated municipal districts. They are the main providers of local government services throughout the country. Kinvara is part of Galway County in the west of the Republic of Ireland. Kinvara Community Council was formed in 1990. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 3 of 15

Kinvara Bay is part of the Galway Bay Southeast Catchment, as described in a report by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency (EPA; 2018). The global coverage basin covers the drained surface of all streams entering Galway Bay between Black Head and Renmore Point. As such, the basin has a J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 3 of 15 total area of 1270 km2, with a population of approx. 74,400 and a population density of 59 persons per km2 (Figure1). The main urban centers, apart from Galway, are Athenry, Loughrea, Gort, and per km² (Figure 1). The main urban centers, apart from Galway, are Athenry, Loughrea, Gort, and Oranmore. The river basin comprises 9 sub-basins, with 33 river water bodies, 6 lakes, 20 transitions, Oranmore. The river basin comprises 9 sub-basins, with 33 river water bodies, 6 lakes, 20 transitions, 9 coastal water bodies, and 17 groundwater bodies. There are no highly modiﬁed or artiﬁcial water 9 coastal water bodies, and 17 groundwater bodies. There are no highly modified or artificial water bodies in the basin [8]. bodies in the basin [8].

Figure 1. Kinvara Bay (adapted from Google Earth and Epsg.io source). Figure 1. Kinvara Bay (adapted from Google Earth and Epsg.io source).

In the basin, there are 15 group water schemes, 7 public deliveries, and another 3 schemes, with a total of 44 extractions from 8 underground wate waterr bodies, one from Lough Rea, and one from the Cannahowna River (Figure 22).). FreshwaterFreshwater drainagedrainage waterwater andand threethree seawaterseawater bathsbaths areare designateddesignated in the basin, with a single Ballyloughane beach, which has failed to achieve good water quality results. The The profile profile of of the the bathing bathing water water indicates indicates that that significant significant pressure pressure comes from the urban sewers from from the the east east of of Galway. Galway. There There are are three three des designatedignated areas areas of of basin basin shells. shells. There There areare also also 25 special25 special conservation conservation areas areas (SACs), (SACs), some some of which of which are arehabitats habitats with with species species that that are aredependent dependent on water.on water. Therefore, Therefore, 18 surface 18 surface water water bodies, bodies, 12 tran 12sient transient water water bodies, bodies, and 2 and groundwater 2 groundwater bodies bodies were wereprioritized prioritized for action. for action.Although Although there are there seven are specia sevenl protected special areas protected (SPAs) areas in the (SPAs) river inbasin, the there river arebasin, no therespecific are conditions no specific to conditions support the to quality support of the water quality required of water for the required site-specific for the conservation site-specific objectives.conservation objectives.

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Figure 2. KinvaraKinvara catchment catchment area area (adapted from http://www.wfdireland.iehttp://www.wfdireland.ie source).source).

The multicriteriamulticriteria analysisanalysis model model considered considered for for the the coastal coastal area area of Kinvaraof Kinvara Bay Bay was was based based on theon PASTELthe PASTEL type type of analysis. of analysis. This modelThis model identiﬁed identified the relevant the relevant forces that forces put that pressure put pressure on the analyzed on the coastalanalyzed and coastal marine and area. marine This area. model This can model be implemented can be implemented on any coastalon any area,coastal starting area, starting by clearly by identifyingclearly identifying the activities the activities and the and pressure the pressure in the respective in the respective area, and area, taking and also taking into accountalso into that account each coastalthat each area coastal has its area speciﬁc has its features specific [9 features–12]. [9–12]. The model created must be validatedvalidated over time, so it isis necessarynecessary toto periodicallyperiodically performperform multicriteria analyses analyses to to identify identify possible possible changes changes in inthe the components components of the of theanalyzed analyzed factors factors [13]. [The13]. Themore more detailed detailed the theanalysis, analysis, and and the the shorter shorter the the inte intervals,rvals, the the better better becomes becomes the the framework framework that can be created for identifying and mitigating potential vulnerabilities given by the overlapping pressures of some factors [[14].14]. Given the above, for the analysis of Kinvara Bay, we considered three of the six factors in the PESTEL analysis,analysis, giving giving up up the the political, political, technological, technological, and and legal legal factors. factors. The RepublicThe Republic of Ireland, of Ireland, being abeing country a country of the European of the European Union, has Union, a general has legislative a general framework legislative in lineframework with EU standards,in line with which EU arestandards, some of which the most are some restrictive of the in most the worldrestrictive in terms in the of world environmental in terms of protection environmental but also protection respect humanbut also fundamental respect human freedoms. fundamental Also, politically, freedoms. taking Also, intopolitically, account taking the fact into that account Ireland isthe part fact of that the EuropeanIreland is part Union, of the it was European assumed Union, that theit was country assumed successfully that the country met the successfully political standards met the accepted political bystandards the community accepted group. by the Regardingcommunity the group. technological Regarding indicators, the technological which mainly indicators, concern which industrial mainly activities,concern industrial in considering activities, the in analyzed considering area, the where analyzed there arearea, very where few there industrial are very activities few industrial and are limitedactivities to and the meatare limited processing to the industry, meat processing we considered industry, them we not considered very relevant them in not the presentvery relevant analysis. in However,the present some analysis. indicators, However, especially some indicators, those of a legislative especiallynature, those of can a legislative be found includednature, can in thebe found social indicatorsincluded in (the the indicator social indicators of safety and (the security indicator that concernsof safety theand existing security legislative that concerns framework) the existing [15–18]. Aslegislative for the otherframework) factors, [15–18]. they are As described for the other in the factors, following. they are described in the following. Economic factor: Indicators regarding the activities in the area as well as their impact on other economic, social, and environmental activities were identified [19]. Thus, agriculture and, in particular, animal husbandry represents the main economic activity of the analyzed area. Another potential economic activity is aquaculture, especially oyster crops. Tourism is also an important economic activity in the area. Car traffic and economic performance given by access to broadband internet were also analyzed.

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Economic factor: Indicators regarding the activities in the area as well as their impact on other economic, social, and environmental activities were identified [19]. Thus, agriculture and, in particular, animal husbandry represents the main economic activity of the analyzed area. Another potential economic activity is aquaculture, especially oyster crops. Tourism is also an important economic activityJ. Mar. Sci. in Eng. the 2020 area., 8, 71 Car traffic and economic performance given by access to broadband internet13 were of 15 also analyzed. has developedSocial factor: a series This of considered studies and the strategies social environment for the socio-economic and identified development the trends existing of the region, in the analyzedsuch as the area. Galway Six indicators County Development were established Plan to201 analyze5–2021, this which factor, provided namely the urban authors agglomeration, with useful activeinformation labor force,for this crime, work education, [29–31]. health, and cultural heritage [20]. Environmental factor: This factor referred to the influence that other factors had on the environment and5. Conclusions the impact of ecological aspects. The environmental factor includes relevant indicators regarding the components of air, water, soil, and waste. In Figure3, the steps required to perform a PESTEL type of analysis are presented.

Figure 3. The framework for conducting a PESTEL (Political, Economic, Socio-cultural, Technological, Environmental, and + Legal) analysis (author).

NominationThis study is of part the of indicators larger research of the threeon the proposed impact of factors coastal alone activities is not under enough the to conditions carry out anof esustainablefficient analysis development. that will The be the application basis of aof sustainable the PESTEL model analysis for aims the coastal to determine zone. Thethe interactions interaction betweenbetween thethe proposed environmental indicators activities and how and some the social of the and indicators economic place activities, less or greater as in pressureour case, on but others also mustthe technological, be identified political, (Figure4 )[and21 legislative,22]. For example, activities in that the are breeding exercised activity over a of coastal animals, area. the nutrients producedStrategic affect analysis the groundwater, on Kinvara which Bay has leads identified to poor an water environment quality. The in which fact that the these existing waters activities, of not veryas well good as the quality pressures reach thethat Bay arise of as Kinvara a result aff ofects the the natural economic or anthropic activity of factors raising of oysters, these activities, which means may thatweaken the economicthe area analyzed activity ofin raisingthe short, animals medium, puts and pressure long term. on the The economic multicriteria activity analysis of raising model oysters. used in the coastal area of Kinvara Bay identified the relevant forces that put pressure on this coastal and marine area. Improving the quality of the environmental factors, especially the quality of the groundwater, is a clear objective for authorities in the medium and long term. Also, the diversification of economic activities, and especially the increase in the share of tourism in the analyzed area, will give an aspect of sustainability. However, in order to develop this area, degradation of coastal ecosystems must be mitigated, providing a common framework for managing multisectoral activities and maintaining options for future coastal resource uses. Applying this model will create a multisectoral perspective and approach that considers all sectoral and stakeholder interests and addresses economic, social, environmental, and ecological issues. Quantifying these activities with the help of the supportability factor shows us even more clearly how high the pressure is on one or another activity and where it comes from. This allows an integrated and multifactorial assessment of a situation, representing a tool to support decision-makers at the local, regional, or national level. Of course, the model can be developed by introducing more indicators or by directing the indicators to a certain aspect that is to be analyzed. Also, when calculating the supportability factor, calculation thresholds can be established based on statistical data, or data collected from the field, regarding the interaction between them. It should also be specified that, for a model to be as viable as possible, the quality of the data collected, as well as the actuality of these data, is very important. The use of data from different

J.J. Mar. Mar. Sci. Sci. Eng. Eng. 20202020, ,88, ,71 71 66 of of 15 15 J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 6 of 15

FigureFigure 4. 4. InteractionInteraction between between the the indicators indicators proposed proposed for for analysis analysis (authors). (authors). Figure 4. Interaction between the indicators proposed for analysis (authors). ToTo quantify quantify the the interaction interaction between between these these activiti activities,es, we we used used the the notion notion of of a asupportability supportability factor. factor. ThisThis instrumentTo instrument quantify represents the represents interaction the the threshold between threshold these at atwhich whichactiviti one onees, of we ofthe used the activities activitiesthe notion can canexist of a exist supportability without without causing causing factor. the otherThisthe other instrumentactivity activity to representsdisappear. to disappear. theFor threshold non-interacting For non-interacting at which activities, one activities,of the the activities stability the stability can factor exist factor was without set was to causing set zero. to zero.For the activitiesotherFor activities activity that thatharmedto disappear. harmed each each other,For other, non-interacting the thesupportabil supportability activities,ity factor factor the was wasstability negative, negative, factor on on awas ascale scale set from fromto zero. zero zero For to to minusactivitiesminus five, five, that depending depending harmed on each the other, greater the or supportabil lesserlesser impactimpactity between betweenfactor was activities.activities. negative, Likewise,Likewise, on a scale if if an an activityfrom activity zero had had to a aminuspositive positive five, e ffeffectect depending on on the the other, other,on the the the greater supportability supportability or lesser factor impact factor was betweenwas also also positive, activities.positive, on aonLikewise, scale a scale from fromif zeroan activityzero to five to fivehad [23]. [23].aThe positive impactThe impacteffect was on establishedwas the established other, based the supportability based on existing on existing data factor from data was o ffialsofromcial positive, sources.official onsources. For a scale example, For from example, the zero pressure to fivethe pressure[23].exerted The byexerted impact agricultural bywas agricultural established activities, activities, namely based raisingon namely existing animals raising data and animalsfrom its impactofficial and its onsources. impact groundwater, Foron groundwater,example, was based the waspressureon the based report exerted on ofthe the byreport Environmentalagricultural of the Environmental activities, Protection namely Agency Protection raising regarding Agencyanimals water regardingand fromits impact thewater Gort–Kinvara on from groundwater, the Gort– river Kinvarawasbasin based (Figure river on5 basin).the This report (Figure report of clearly5).the This Environmental showed report clearl that Pr they otectionshowed main sources Agencythat the of regarding pressuremain sources were water fromof frompressure agricultural the Gort–were fromKinvaraactivities agricultural river and alsobasin activities domestic (Figure and 5). activities, Thisalso reportdomestic more clearl precisely activities,y showed by more the that septic precisely the tanksmain by insources the households.septic of pressure tanks in In were thisthe households.fromcase, agricultural the supportability In this activities case, factor theand was supportabilityalso negative domestic because activities,factor thewas more quality negative precisely of thebecause groundwaterby the the septic quality wastanks aof ffinected thethe groundwaterhouseholds.by the indicator wasIn establishedthis affected case, by the forthe thesupportabilityindicator economic establis factor–agriculture–and factorhed for was the negativeeconomic since becausefactor–agriculture–and the etheffect quality was very of since high,the thegroundwaterthe effect supportability was verywas affectedhigh, factor the reached by supportability the indicator the maximum factorestablis reached limit.hed for The the the allocation maximum economic of factor–agriculture–andlimit. these The values allocation was empirical, of these since valuesthebased effect onwas was data empirical, very collected high, basedin the the supportabilityon area data and collected also factor on in similar thereached area studies theand maximum conductedalso on similar limit. by the Thestudies Marine allocation conducted Institute of these andby thevaluesthe Marine National was Institute empirical, University and based ofthe Ireland, National on data Galway. collectedUniversity in of the Ireland, area and Galway. also on similar studies conducted by the Marine Institute and the National University of Ireland, Galway.

(a) (b) (c) (a) (b) (c)

FigureFigure 5. SomeSome examplesexamples of of groundwater groundwater pressures: pressures: (a) pressure(a) pressure from agriculturefrom agriculture sources; sources; (b) pressure (b) pressureFigurefrom anthropogenic 5. from Some anthropogenic examples sources; of (sources; c)grou pressurendwater (c) pressure from pressures: domestic from domestic wastewater(a) pressure wastewater sources from agriculture (adapted sources (adapted from sources; EPA). from (b) EPA).pressure from anthropogenic sources; (c) pressure from domestic wastewater sources (adapted from EPA).

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J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 7 of 15 3. Results 3. Results The interaction between the activities that took place in the coastal area was defined with the generic termThe interaction land–sea interaction, between the used activities in the contextthat took of place marine in planningthe coastal and area management was defined in thewith coastal the generic term land–sea interaction, used in the context of marine planning and management in the areas. As we already mentioned, the interaction was between economic, social, and environmental coastal areas. As we already mentioned, the interaction was between economic, social, and factors. As an example, this type of interaction may include, but is not limited to, the flow of environmental factors. As an example, this type of interaction may include, but is not limited to, the contaminants from a terrestrial agricultural surface to a freshwater body, which is in contact with the flow of contaminants from a terrestrial agricultural surface to a freshwater body, which is in contact coastal waters. This represents an economic–environmental interaction, but it may also be the type of with the coastal waters. This represents an economic–environmental interaction, but it may also be bathingthe type water of bathing that aff ectswater coastal that affects tourism, coastal which tour representsism, which anrepresents environmental–economic an environmental–economic interaction. Oninteraction. the one hand, On itthe is one necessary hand, it to is knownecessary that to the know same that factor the same can exert factor an can impact exert an on impact other factors on other but, at thefactors same but, time, at the can same receive time, the can impact receive of the other impact factors. of other factors. ThereThere was was a closea close connection connection between between most most ofof thethe activitiesactivities that that were were analyzed analyzed within within integrated integrated coastalcoastal zone zone management. management. Consistency Consistency and integrationand integration between between marine marine and terrestrial and terrestrial spatial planningspatial areplanning important are and important should and be achieved should be through achieved consistent through policies,consistent plans, policies, and plans, decisions. and decisions. Some uses, especiallySome uses, in theespecially field (e.g., in the beach field (e.g., tourism, beach waterfront, tourism, waterfront, ports), also ports), extended also extended their scope their toscope the to sea. Thesethe interactionssea. These interactions should be should identified be identified and mapped and tomapped assess to their assess cumulative their cumulative impact andimpact potential and conflictspotential and conflicts synergies. and synergies. In theIn the table table below, below, we establishedwe established the interaction the interact modeion mode between between the activities the activities of the threeof the analyzed three factors,analyzed namely factors, the namely economic the factor,economic the factor, social factor,the social and factor, the environmental and the environmental factor. This factor. was This also outlinedwas also in outlined Table1. Inin thisTable table, 1. In this the factorstable, the that fact wereors that the were source the ofsource interaction of interaction were depictedwere depicted in the rows,in the and rows, the factorsand the that factors were that targeted were targeted by the interactionby the interaction were presentedwere presented in the in columns. the columns. As it As can be seen,it can mostbe seen, pressures most pressures were created were by created economic by economic factors, andfactors, the environmentaland the environmental factors absorbedfactors absorbed most pressures. most pressures.

Table 1. Interaction mode between economic, environmental, and social factors (authors). Table 1. Interaction mode between economic, environmental, and social factors (authors).

Positive interaction Negative interaction Non impact / Non interaction

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RegardingRegarding the the valorization valorization ofof factorsfactors in the table below, below, impacts impacts between between indicators indicators can can be be ascertainedascertained following following the the interaction interaction betweenbetween the pr proposedoposed factors factors (Table (Table 2).2). The The authors authors considered considered thatthat the the theory theory of of integrated integrated coastal coastal zone zone management management should should be be applied applied in in this this situation, situation, in in which which the factorsthe factors interact, interact, sometimes sometimes generating generating conflicts, conflicts, between between existing existing activities. activities. InIn determining determining the the valuation, valuation, itit waswas establishedestablished that that the the activities activities that that did did not not affect affect each each other other hadhad zero zero value. value. The The pressures pressures exertedexerted by one activi activityty on on another another had had a apositi positiveve or ornegative negative impact, impact, andand the the value value was was between between minusminus fivefive toto fivefive dependingdepending on on the the pressure pressure exerted. exerted. A Avalue value of of–5 –5 representsrepresents the the maximum maximum point point atat whichwhich an activity can can withstand withstand the the pressures pressures of ofanother another activity. activity. TheThe evaluation evaluation was was based based on dataon data obtained obtained from from various various sources. sources. In the In discussionthe discussion chapter, chapter, we explain we howexplain the evaluation how the evaluation was done was and done also and the originsalso the oforigins the sources of the sources used. used.

Table 2. Valuation impact of activities (authors). Table 2. Valuation impact of activities (authors).

Economic factorEnvironmental factor Social factor Waters Tourism Transport Economic Agriculture Performance Aer Soil Crime Health Waste Energy Industry Services Land Use Education Aquaculture Employment Cultural heritage Cultural rate Urban Agglomerations Lakes Rivers Traffic homes awards awards animals boating Tourism Tourism Internet Internet Growing Intensity Intensity Seasonal Seasonal eco-label broadband Coastal and and Coastal Transitional Recreational Recreational Beaches with with Beaches Groundwaters Bed occupancy Growing Agriculture 0 -3 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 2 0 1 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 2 0 0 -2 2 animals Aquaculture 0 00 0 0 0 0 0 03 0 002 -20000-20 20303 Transport Traffic -1-20 -2 -2 0 0 0 00 0 10-30 000-20 -20-20-30 Tourism 0 -3 -3 0 2 0 4 2 0 2 0 0 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 3 -2 0 -1 2 Intensity Beaches with eco-label 0 00 -1 0 1 3 3 03 0 003 3 00003 2 21233 awards Recreational Tourism 0 -20 2 2 0 2 2 13 0 100 -10000-10 10222 Economic boating factor Bed occupancy 0 00 4 0 0 0 3 03 0 2-20 0 0000-3-32-2000 rate Seasonal 0 0-23 0 2 0 0 12 0 2-20 -1-2-2-3-3-2-220000 homes Industry 4 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -2 -3 3 0 2 10 Services 2 2-20 3 0 0 0 00 0 000 0 0000-2-300000 Economic Internet 0 00 0 0 0 2 2 33 0 000 0 00000 0 00333 Performance broadband Land Use 2 22 2 0 0 0 2 22 1 000 0 00000 0 00000 Energy 0 00 1 0 0 0 0 12 0 000 0 00000 0 00000 Aer 2 20 -2 -3 0 -3 -300 0 000 0 00000 -3000-4-2 Coastal and 0 -40 0 -5 -3 -3 -300 0 000 0 00000 0 000-3-2 Transitional Environmental Waters Lakes -3-30 0 0 0 -2 -200 0 000 0 00000 0 000-2-2 factor Rivers -3-30 0 0 0 -2 -200 0 000 0 00000 0 000-2-2 Groundwaters -3 -3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 00000 0 000-2-2 Soil -200 0 0 0 0 0 00 0 000 0 00000 0 000-3-2 Waste 0 0 0 0 x 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1-1-1-1-1-10 0 0 0 0 -20 Urban Agglomerations -1 -2 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -2 3 4 2 2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 3 -2 2 -2 2 Employment 2 20 2 0 0 0 0 45 0 000 0 00000 0 01220 Crime 0 00 -3 0 0 0 0 0-20 000 0 00000 0 00-2-2-2 Social factor Education 3 30 3 3 3 0 0 44 3 020 0 00003 0 34034 Health 0 00 3 0 0 0 0 33 0 000 0 00000 0 30000 Cultural heritage 1 10 4 0 3 3 3 22 0 000 0 00000 0 00330 -5-4-3-2-1012345

Graphically, Figure 6 shows the impact on each factor. Graphically, Figure6 shows the impact on each factor.

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Figure 6. Graphic representation of the impact between the activities in the coastal area (author). Figure 6. Graphic representation of the impact between the activities in the coastal area (author). Generally, when indicators are based on data coming from different fields of analysis, their Generally, when indicators are based on data coming from different fields of analysis, their aggregation is done using weights corresponding to the calculation norms and the existing standards aggregation is done using weights corresponding to the calculation norms and the existing standards in the respective field. in the respective field. In the case of insufficient or inconclusive data, aggregations should be treated as approximations In the case of insufficient or inconclusive data, aggregations should be treated as approximations to unknown totals or average values. to unknown totals or average values. The aggregation rules are intended to produce estimates for a constant set of data from one period The aggregation rules are intended to produce estimates for a constant set of data from one to another and for all indicators. period to another and for all indicators. In the analyzed case, we used results of the median report coming from the sum of the values In the analyzed case, we used results of the median report coming from the sum of the values of of the interactions exercised at the level of an analyzed activity (Table3) and of the average values the interactions exercised at the level of an analyzed activity (Table 3) and of the average values for for the factors (economic = 0.139053254, social = 0.505494505 and environmental = 0.487179487). the factors (economic = 0.139053254, social = −0.505494505− and environmental = 0.487179487). The The corresponding graphical representations can be seen in Figures7 and8. corresponding graphical representations can be seen in Figures 7 and 8.

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Table 3. Average values of economic, social, and environmental indicators (author).

Agriculture Growing Animals 0.57692 − Aquaculture 0.346154 Transport Traﬃc 0.69231 − Tourism Intensity 0.19231 − Beaches with eco-label Awards 1.192308 Tourism Recreational Boating 0.615385 Economic Factor Bed occupancy rate 0.153846 Seasonal Homes 0.26923 − Industry 0.23077 − Services 0 Economic Performance Internet Broadband 0.730769 Land Use 0.576923 Energy 0.153846 Air 0.61538 − Coastal and Transitional 0.88462 − Lakes 0.53846 − Waters Rivers 0.53846 Environmental Factor − Groundwaters 0.38462 − Soil 0.26923 − Waste 0.30769 − Urban Agglomerations 0.57692 − Employment 0.769231 Crime 0.42308 Social Factor − Education 1.730769 Health 0.461538

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 Cultural Heritage 0.961538 11 of 15

FigureFigure 7. Average 7. Average values values of economic, of economic, social, social, and and environmental environmental indicators indicators (author). (author).

0.6

0.4

0.2 factor

y 0 Economic Environmental Social

ortabilit -0.2 pp Su -0.4

-0.6

Figure 8. Average value for each factor (author).

4. Discussion The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development has stated that the overall objective of integrated coastal zone management is to maximize the benefits offered by the coastal area and to minimize the conflicts and harmful effects of some activities on others. Coastal management focuses on the interactions between activities in the coastal area and activities in other regions. The present work aimed to identify an integrated management model that, on the one hand, can be applied to the particularities of the Kinvara Bay area and, on the other hand, can be applied to other situations. Analyses of each of these situations started from the particularities of the analyzed area, using a matrix of economic, social, and environmental factors, to which other factors of the PESTEL analysis can be added (i.e., political, legislative, and technological factors). Validation over time is absolutely necessary for the new model created. This should be done periodically through a multicriteria analysis to identify changes in the components of the analyzed factors. Within the analysis, local, regional, national, and international objectives should be

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 11 of 15

J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 11 of 15 Figure 7. Average values of economic, social, and environmental indicators (author).

0.6

0.4

0.2 factor

y 0 Economic Environmental Social

ortabilit -0.2 pp Su -0.4

-0.6

Figure 8. Average value for each factor (author). Figure 8. Average value for each factor (author).

4. Discussion4. Discussion TheThe Organization Organization for Economic for Economic Cooperation Cooperation and Development and Development has stated has that stated the overall that objectivethe overall of integratedobjective of coastal integrated zone managementcoastal zone management is to maximize is theto maximize benefits off theered benefits by the coastaloffered areaby the and coastal to minimizearea and the conflictsto minimize and harmfulthe conflicts effects and of some harmful activities effects on others.of some Coastal activities management on others. focuses Coastal on themanagement interactions focuses between on the activities interactions in the between coastal area activi andties activities in the coastal in other area regions. and activities The present in other workregions. aimed The to identifypresent work an integrated aimed tomanagement identify an integrated model that, management on the one model hand, that, can beon appliedthe one hand, to thecan particularities be applied to of the particularities Kinvara Bay area of the and, Kinvara on the Bay other area hand, and, can on bethe applied other hand, to other can situations.be applied to Analysesother situations. of each of theseAnalyses situations of each started of these from situations the particularities started from of the the analyzed particularities area, using of the a matrixanalyzed of economic,area, using social, a matrix and environmentalof economic, social, factors, and to whichenvironmental other factors factors, of the to PESTELwhich other analysis factors can of be the addedPESTEL (i.e., political,analysis can legislative, be added and (i.e., technological political, legislative, factors). and technological factors). ValidationValidation over over time time is absolutely is absolutely necessary necessary for fo ther the new new model model created. created. This This should should be donebe done periodicallyperiodically through through a multicriteria a multicriteria analysis analysis to identifyto identify changes changes in thein the components components of theof the analyzed analyzed factors.factors. Within Within the analysis,the analysis, local, regional,local, regional, national, na andtional, international and international objectives should objectives be integrated. should be Using a holistic perspective, the model avoids traditional sectorial interconnections between the coastal systems and uses management approaches. The interrelation and interaction between the indicators of the factors proposed for this analysis are very important because, in some cases, the interaction can have a positive effect, and in other situations, the effect may be predominantly negative or does not exist. That is why it is very important, especially in the situation of a negative effect, that we quantify what the threshold is where the negative effect becomes a vulnerability that can lead to a disaster [24]. In previously published works that were part of the preparation of the doctoral thesis of the first author, we developed an instrument that we called the supportability factor. This tool is useful to determine the degree of supportability of one indicator with another. In general, an ideal situation is a constant situation in which the analyzed indicators do not affect, or positively affect, each other. However, in the theory of coastal zone integrated management, there are existing conflicts between activities. It is natural to have such conflicts; for example, in coastal areas there are tourist activities but also protected areas that require protection measures against human activities [25]. Therefore, by establishing a supportability factor, we will see how much it can withstand one of the existing activities and the pressure of the others. In determining the supportability factor, it was established that if the activities did not affect each other, they would have a zero value. Also, the pressures they exerted had a positive or negative impact, J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 12 of 15 and the value will be between minus five to five. If the impact of one activity on the other is negative, that means a pressure is affecting one activity. A value of 5 represents the maximum point at which − one activity can withstand the pressures of the other activities. Above this value, the activity can no longer exist in the respective area [26]. The allocation of the value scale between 5 and 5 is not accidental; it is based primarily on the − theory of risk analysis. A risk assessment consists, in our case, in studying the probability that the activity will reach a satisfactory performance. In this context, the probability must be interpreted as an index in which a value of 5 represents complete certainty that a prediction will be confirmed, a value of 5 represents the certainty that a prediction will not be confirmed, and intermediate values for any − situation between the two extremes can be identified [27]. The instrument of probability was used as an evaluation tool. The values of this scale can be generated by the experience of specialists in the field at the local or regional level. Probability thresholds reflect the perception of decision-makers about the uncertainty with which the identified risks may be associated. In some of the analyzed activities, a qualitative evaluation is required, while in others, a quantitative evaluation is required. This theory was initiated by a Monte Carlo analysis, developed in the 1940s, and it is a computerized method that uses statistical sampling techniques to obtain a probabilistic approximation to the solution of a model. In this context, the simulation consists of the process of approximating model results by repetitive random applications of the model algorithm. The Monte Carlo simulation combines probability distributions according to the relationships existing in the models by testing several combinations of input variables and storing the results for display. The relevance of this method is that the results are often graphs of probability distributions or cumulative probability distributions of output variables, such as the total cost or completion dates. These results allow the complete and objective measurement of the different risks [28]. In addition to multicriteria analysis (MCA), several statistical techniques can be used to evaluate project risks, such as PERT (repeated program evaluation technique), sensitivity analysis, and decision tree analysis. Regarding the sources used, these were mainly based on official reports or analytical studies in the area. Data on the quality of environmental factors were obtained in particular from the Environmental Protection Agency of Ireland (EPA). The report on the Kinvara–Gort River Basin Management Plan provides extensive data of existing pressures on ground and surface waters as well as transitional and marine waters in Kinvara Bay. Also, the online catchments.ie database provided current data on the factors analyzed in this paper. The Marine Institute in Galway has also developed a comprehensive study of socio-economic pressures on oyster cultivation in the Kinvara Bay area. Last but not least, the Galway County Council has developed a series of studies and strategies for the socio-economic development of the region, such as the Galway County Development Plan 2015–2021, which provided the authors with useful information for this work [29–31].

5. Conclusions This study is part of larger research on the impact of coastal activities under the conditions of sustainable development. The application of the PESTEL analysis aims to determine the interactions between the environmental activities and the social and economic activities, as in our case, but also the technological, political, and legislative activities that are exercised over a coastal area. Strategic analysis on Kinvara Bay has identified an environment in which the existing activities, as well as the pressures that arise as a result of the natural or anthropic factors of these activities, may weaken the area analyzed in the short, medium, and long term. The multicriteria analysis model used in the coastal area of Kinvara Bay identified the relevant forces that put pressure on this coastal and marine area. Improving the quality of the environmental factors, especially the quality of the groundwater, is a clear objective for authorities in the medium and long term. Also, the diversification of economic activities, and especially the increase in the share of tourism in the analyzed area, will give an aspect of sustainability. However, in order to develop this area, degradation of coastal ecosystems must be J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 71 13 of 15 mitigated, providing a common framework for managing multisectoral activities and maintaining options for future coastal resource uses. Applying this model will create a multisectoral perspective and approach that considers all sectoral and stakeholder interests and addresses economic, social, environmental, and ecological issues. Quantifying these activities with the help of the supportability factor shows us even more clearly how high the pressure is on one or another activity and where it comes from. This allows an integrated and multifactorial assessment of a situation, representing a tool to support decision-makers at the local, regional, or national level. Of course, the model can be developed by introducing more indicators or by directing the indicators to a certain aspect that is to be analyzed. Also, when calculating the supportability factor, calculation thresholds can be established based on statistical data, or data collected from the field, regarding the interaction between them. It should also be specified that, for a model to be as viable as possible, the quality of the data collected, as well as the actuality of these data, is very important. The use of data from different periods can lead to the development of different models. Also, calibration of the model can be done over time by constantly updating the entered data. However, it is not always possible to accurately quantify all proposed indicators. Often, they have certain ambiguity in their structure. Thus, this multifactorial analysis will be further developed in our future research, considering also unpleasant experiences in measuring these indicators.

Author Contributions: The first and the third authors (C.A. and I.A.) had the idea of developing the work, gathered the data and designed the figures and tables. The methodologies and approaches to be considered have been discussed with the second author (C.G.). The work supervision was provided by E.R. who was also the corresponding author. All authors have read and agreed to the published version of the manuscript. Funding: This research was funded by the project “Excellence, performance and competitiveness in the Research, Development and Innovation activities at “Dunarea de Jos” University of Galati”, acronym “EXPERT”, financed by the Romanian Ministry of Research and Innovation in the framework of Programme 1—Development of the national research and development system, Sub-programme 1.2. Institutional Performance. Projects for financing excellence in Research, Development and Innovation, Contract no. 14PFE/17.10.2018. Acknowledgments: For the first author, this work is supported by the project ANTREPRENORDOC, in the framework of Human Resources Development Operational Programme 2014-2020, financed from the European Social Fund under the contract number 36355/23.05.2019 HRD OP /380/6/13 – SMIS Code: 123847. For the third author, this work is supported by Postdoctoral Research role of the project Wave Resource Characterisation at the Galway Bay Marine and Renewable Test Site implemented by Nationl University of Ireland, Galway financed from the Marine Research Programme 2014-2020 Conflicts of Interest: The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

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