In the National Security Arena
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
Governance, Democracy Peace
AND GOVERNANCE, DEMOCRACY PEACE HOW STATE CAPACITY AND REGIME TYPE INFLUENCE THE PROSPECTS FOR WAR AND PEACE David Cortright with Conor Seyle and Kristen Wall © 2013 One Earth Future Foundation The One Earth Future Foundation was founded in 2007 with the goal of supporting research and practice in the area of peace and governance. OEF believes that a world beyond war can be achieved by the development of new and effective systems of cooperation, coordination, and decision making. We believe that business and civil society have important roles to play in filling governance gaps in partnership with states. When states, business, and civil society coordinate their efforts, they can achieve effective, equitable solutions to global problems. As an operating foundation, we engage in research and practice that supports our overall mission. Research materials from OEF envision improved governance structures and policy options, analyze and document the performance of existing governance institutions, and provide intellectual support to the field operations of our implementation projects. Our active field projects apply our research outputs to existing governance challenges, particularly those causing threats to peace and security. ONE EARTH FUTURE FOUNDATION 525 Zang Street | Suite C Broomfield, CO 80021 USA Ph. +1.303.533.1715 | Fax +1 303.309.0386 ABOUT THE AUTHORS David Cortright is the director of Policy Studies at the Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies at the University of Notre Dame and chair of the board of directors of the Fourth Freedom Forum. He is the author of seventeen books, including the Adelphi volume Towards Nuclear Zero, with Raimo Vayrynen (Routledge, 2010) and Peace: A History of Movements and Ideas (Cambridge University Press, 2008). -
Appendix I: Contributing Authors' Biographies
Appendix I: Contributing Authors’ Biographies | 107 Appendix I: Contributing Authors’ Biographies Richard Cincotta is the Demographer in Residence at the Stimson Center in Washington, DC, and a consultant to the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Environmental Change and Security Project. Dr. Cincotta served as the Political Demographer in the National Intelligence Council’s Long Range Analysis Unit from 2006 to 2009. He has authored articles in various publications, including Foreign Policy, Current History, Nature, and Science. James C. Clad is an independent consultant and a Senior Adviser at the Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, VA. From 2007-2010 he served as a US Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Asia security affairs, and as a Senior Research Fellow at the National Defense University. He has also held senior positions at the Overseas Private Investment Corporation and at the US Agency for International Development. During the 1990s up to 2002, he was Professor of South and Southeast Asian Studies at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service. During the 1980s and 1990s, he wrote for the Far Eastern Economic Review. F. Gregory Gause, III, is Professor of Political Science and Chair of the Department at the University of Vermont, and was Director of the University’s Middle East Studies Program from 1998 to 2008. He was the Kuwait Foundation Visiting Professor of International Affairs at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, in 2009-10, and in the spring of 2009 he held a Fulbright Fellowship at the American University of Kuwait. He was previously on the faculty of Columbia University, and was Fellow for Arab and Islamic Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. -
Human Cycles: History As Science
NEWS IN FOCUS CYCLES OF VIOLENCE The motivating issues vary, but episodes of violent political upheaval in the United States are surprisingly regular. NUMBER OF 80 VIOLENT EVENTS ~920 PER 5 YEARS Racial tensions, unrest among workers and anticommunist feeling surged in the aftermath ~870 of the First World War. 60 Racial, class and political tensions peaked during and after the Civil War. ~970 40 The civil-rights movement, social change and opposition to the Vietnam War marked the tumultuous 1960s. 20 POLITICAL LABOUR OR ECONOMIC RACIALLY MOTIVATED 0 VIGILANTE 780 800 820 840 860 880 900 920 940 960 980 2000 HISTORY AS SCIENCE Advocates of ‘cliodynamics’ say that they can use scientific methods to illuminate the past. But historians are not so sure. BY LAURA SPINNEY trends and outbursts of violence in the United States, and has come to the conclusion that ometimes, history really does seem to a new wave of internal strife is already on its 1 repeat itself. After the US Civil War, for way . The peak should occur in about 2020, 1 SOURCE: REF. example, a wave of urban violence fuelled he says, and will probably be at least as high as Sby ethnic and class resentment swept across the one in around 1970. “I hope it won’t be as the country, peaking in about 1870. Internal bad as 1870,” he adds. strife spiked again in around 1920, when race Turchin’s approach — which he calls clio riots, workers’ strikes and a surge of anti- dynamics after Clio, the ancient Greek muse of Communist feeling led many people to think history — is part of a groundswell of efforts to that revolution was imminent. -
Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability In
Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution Modeling Social Pressures Toward Political Instability in the United Kingdom after 1960: A Demographic Structural Analysis Oscar Ortmans1, Elisabetta Mazzeo1,2, Kira Meshcherina1, Andrey Korotayev1,3 1 National Research University Higher School of Economics 2 HSE-Skolkovo Institute for Law and Development 3 Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences Abstract In the current paper, we investigate the predictive ability of Goldstone’s demographic structural model. In particular we seek to apply Turchin’s version of it to modeling the social pressures for political instability in the UK. It is then demonstrated that Turchin’s analysis of ‘demographic structural’ pressures in the US presents similar conditions that developed under neoliberalism during the same time periods in both countries. It is also demonstrated that the modeling of social pressures toward political instability in the UK and the USA performed by Peter Turchin and us can throw some light on the factors and patterns of the global sociopolitical destabilization wave of the 2010s. Thus, Goldstone’s demographic structural model might have some predictive potential not only at the national level, but also global scale. Introduction Kuran’s review of Revolution and Rebellion in the Early Modern Word (Goldstone 1991) praised Goldstone’s ability to accommodate historical record ‘far more satisfactorily’ than alternative theories. Yet, just as promptly, the review argues that “if the book has any weaknesses, it is that it blurs the distinction between explanation and prediction” (Kuran 1992: 9). For Kuran, Goldstone’s ‘structural demographic theory’ amounted largely to consilience, where “after an event’s occurrence information consistent with that event gains silence at the expense of inconsistent information” (Kuran 1992: 8). -
From the Chairman Martin Frost
From the Chairman Martin Frost he National Archives, which houses our nation’s charters of freedom, was the ideal setting for the Endowment’s 30th anniversary celebration in November. Speaker T John Boehner and Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi reaffirmed their strong support for our work, and a distinguished panel consisting of Senators John McCain (R, AZ) and Robert Menendez (D, NJ), and Representatives Ed Royce (R, CA) and David Price (D, NC) spoke with ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos about America’s bipartisan commitment to democracy abroad. It was appropriate that members of both houses development, the party institutes offered expertise of Congress played such a prominent role in the on how to write electoral laws, establish functioning celebration, since their bipartisan backing has been parliaments, develop issue briefs, and train grass critical to the success of the Endowment since its roots groups to monitor elections, frequently using inception. Indeed, it was my former House colleague the talents of those who had managed their own from Florida, Dante Fascell, who first proposed successful democratic transitions. The Solidarity the creation of a nongovernmental organization to Center, building upon the American labor movement’s advance democratic values and institutions around longstanding internationalism, developed new ways the world. to empower workers to fight for their rights, including the ability to organize free trade unions. And CIPE NED has also been honored to have the support of provided technical assistance to business partners every administration since President Reagan gave looking to open markets, fight corruption, improve his endorsement to the Endowment idea in a major corporate governance, and convince governments of foreign policy address in June 1982. -
Revolution 1 Revolution
Revolution 1 Revolution A revolution (from the Latin revolutio, "a turn around") is a fundamental change in power or organizational structures that takes place in a relatively short period of time. Its use to refer to political change dates from the scientific revolution occasioned by Copernicus' famous De Revolutionibus Orbium Coelestium.[1] [a] Aristotle described two types of political revolution: 1. Complete change from one constitution to another 2. Modification of an existing constitution.[2] Revolutions have occurred through human history and vary widely in terms of methods, duration, and motivating ideology. Their results include major changes in culture, economy, and socio-political institutions. Scholarly debates about what does and does not constitute a revolution center around several issues. Early studies of revolutions primarily analyzed events in European history from a psychological perspective, but more modern examinations include global events and incorporate perspectives from several social sciences, including sociology and political science. Several generations of scholarly thought on revolutions have generated many competing theories and contributed much to the current understanding of this complex phenomenon. Etymology Copernicus named his 1543 treatise on the movements of planets around the sun De revolutionibus orbium coelestium (On the Revolutions of Celestial Bodies). "Revolution" then passed from astronomy into astrological vernacular; coming to representing abrupt change in the social order. Political usage of the word first appeared in 1688 in the young United Kingdom as a description of the replacement of James II with William III. The process was termed "The Glorious Revolution".[3] Political and socioeconomic revolutions Perhaps most often, the word 'revolution' is employed to denote a change in socio-political institutions.[4] [5] [6] Jeff Goodwin gives two definitions of a revolution. -
The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020
Turchin and Korotayev: The Structural-Demographic Forecast for 2010–2020 1 The 2010 Structural-Demographic Forecast for the 2010–2020 Decade: 2 A Retrospective Assessment 3 Peter Turchin* and Andrey Korotayev** 4 *Complexity Science Hub Vienna and University of Connecticut 5 ** National Research University Higher School of Economics and Institute of Oriental Studies, Russian 6 Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 7 June 14, 2020 8 9 Abstract 10 This article revisits the prediction, made in 2010, that the 2010–2020 decade would likely be a period of 11 growing instability in the United States and Western Europe [1]. This prediction was based on a 12 computational model that quantified in the USA such structural-demographic forces for instability as 13 popular immiseration, intraelite competition, and state weakness prior to 2010. Using these trends as 14 inputs, the model calculated and projected forward in time the Political Stress Indicator, which in the 15 past was strongly correlated with socio-political instability. Ortmans et al. [2] conducted a similar 16 structural-demographic study for the United Kingdom. Here we use the Cross-National Time-Series Data 17 Archive for the US, UK, and several major Western European countries to assess these structural- 18 demographic predictions. We find that such measures of socio-political instability as anti-government 19 demonstrations and riots increased dramatically during the 2010–2020 decade in all of these countries. 20 Introduction 21 How resilient are our societies to internal and external shocks? Can we model and forecast the dynamics 22 of social resilience and its opposite, social breakdown? A major research challenge in answering this 23 question is that growing socio-political instability results from multiple interacting factors: economic, 24 political, and cultural.