THIS WHITE PAPER IS PUBLISHED JOINTLY BY STRATEGIC MULTI- LAYER ASSESSMENT (SMA) AND U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT DIRECTORATE Perspectives on Political and Social Regional Stability Impacted by Global Crises - A Social Science Context January 2010 The views expressed in this document are those of the authors and do not reflect the official policy or position of the organizations with which they are associated. Editorial Board: Hriar Cabayan (OSD), Barbara Sotirin (USACE-HQ, CERD), Robert Davis (ERDC-NH), Robert Popp (NSI), Andy Reynolds (U.S. Dept. of State), Anne Ralte (USAID), Herm Myers (OUSDP), Phil Kearley (JFCOM), Robert Allen (TRADOC), Lynda Jaques (PACOM), Sharon Halls (AFRICOM), Carl Dodd (STRATCOM/ GISC), Martin Drake (CENTCOM), MAJ Bradley Hilton (EUCOM), Tom Rieger (Gallup), Tom Mullen, (PA), Peter Steen (JS/J-5), Larry Kuznar (NSI) Contributing Authors: Clare Lockhart (State Effectiveness Institute), Philip Martin (UC-Davis), Jack A. Goldstone (GMU), Elizabeth Leahy Madsen (PAI), David L. Richards (Memphis), Ronald Gelleny (Akron), Peter Steen (JS/J-5), Jerome Delli Priscoli (USACE), J. Rolf Olsen (USACE), Kathleen D. White (USACE), Julie E. Kiang (USGS), D. Phil Turnipseed (USGS), Levi D. Brekke (Reclamation), David A. Raff (Reclamation), Roger S. Pulwarty (NOAA), Robert Webb (NOAA), Alex O.Dehgan (DOS), Laura Jean Palmer-Moloney (USACE), James Diaz (LSU), Kenneth S. Yalowitz (Dartmouth), Ross A. Virginia (Dartmouth), Richard J. Stoll (Rice), Douglas J. Arent (NREL), Jeffrey Steiner (USDA), Timothy Griffin (Tufts), Donald Suarez (USDA), Debarati Guha-Sapir(CRED), Daniel Strickman (USDA), Victor Asal (Albany), Stephen Shellman(William and Mary), Lawrence A. Kuznar (NSI), Laura Leets (NSI), J. Joseph Hewitt (CIDCM), Tom Rieger (Gallup), Frank C. Zagare (SUNY Buffalo), Robert Axelrod (Michigan), George Cybenko (Dartmouth), Douglas Madory (Dartmouth), Stephen M. Millett (Futuring Assoc), Ame Stormer (DMHA), Jessica Wambach (DMHA), and Lt Gen (Ret) John F. Goodman (DMHA), Robert Popp(NSI), Tom Mullen (PA) Compiled by: Rosa Affleck (ERDC-NH) – [email protected] Rose Rainey (IIA) – [email protected] April Hartman (NSI) - [email protected] Deborah Pyle (SRC) – [email protected] Table of Contents PREFACE (RDML John E. Roberti).......................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary (Rosa Affleck, Todd Anderson, Roy Cooper, Rose Rainey).................. 4 1. Stability and State Building (Clare Lockhart) ................................................................ 12 2. Independent Trend and Trajectory of the Future: Issues Impacting Social Regional Stability ............................................................................................................................ 23 2.1. Demographics ................................................................................................................................... 23 2.1.A. Demographic and Economic Trends: Implications for International Migration (Philip Martin) ............................................................................ 23 2.1.B. Demography and Security (Jack Goldstone) ............................................... 32 2.1.C. Demographic Security (Elizabeth Leahy Madsen)...................................... 44 2.2. Economics........................................................................................................................................... 51 2.2.A. Banking Crises, Collective Protest and Rebellion (David Richards, Ronald Gelleny)........................................................................................................ 51 2.2.B. Economics and Political Instability within the Global Economic Crisis (Peter Steen)................................................................................................. 73 2.3. Water .................................................................................................................................................... 78 2.3.A. Water and Security: Cause War or Help Community Building? (Jerome Delli Priscoli)............................................................................................... 78 2.3.B. Water Resources and Stability (J. Rolf Olsen, Kathleen White, Julie Kiang, D. Phil Turnipseed, Levi Brekke, David Raff, Roger Pulwarty, Robert Webb)........................................................................................................... 89 2.3.C. Water Security and Scarcity: Potential Destabilization in Western Afghanistan (Alex Dehgan, Laura Jean Palmer-Moloney).......................... 98 2.4. Changing of Climate and State Weather ..............................................................................110 2.4.A. Maintaining Geopolitical and Social Stability throughout a Global Economy in an Era of Climate Change (James Diaz)................................................ 110 2.4.B. The Arctic Region: Prospects for a Great Game or International Cooperation (Kenneth Yalowitz, Ross Virginia)............................................................ 125 2.4.C. Changing Climate Impacts to Water Resources: Implications for Stability (Kathleen White, J.Rolf Olsen, Levi Brekke, David Raff, Roger Pulwarty, Robert Webb)............................................................................................. 131 Energy............................................................................................................................................................144 2.4.D. Energy, Africa, and Civil Conflict: What Does the Future Hold? (Richard Stoll)........................................................................................................... 144 2.4.E. Energy: A National and Global Issue (Douglas Arent) ............................. 150 2.5. Food.....................................................................................................................................................170 2.5.A. World Food Availability and the Natural Land Resources Base (Jeffrey Steiner, Timothy Griffin)........................................................................... 170 2.5.B. Food Production in Arid Regions as Related to Salinity (Donald Suarez) 178 2.6. Epidemics..........................................................................................................................................184 2.6.A. Epidemics: A Thumbnail Sketch of the Past, Present and Future (Debarati Guha-Sapir)................................................................................................ 184 i 2.6.B. Infectious Disease and Social Instability: Prevent, Respond, Repair (Daniel Strickman).................................................................................................. 190 3. Social Science Modeling and Analysis Approaches ...................................................... 196 3.1. Analyzing Political and Social Regional Stability with Statistics: Challenges and Opportunities (Victor Asal, Stephen Shellman) ...............................................................196 3.2. The Social Stability of Societies: An Anthropological View (Lawrence Kuznar)203 3.3. Quantitative Content Analysis (Laura Leets) ....................................................................213 3.4. The Peace and Conflict Instability Ledger Ranking States on Future Risks (J. Joseph Hewitt) ................................................................................................................................219 3.5. Perception is Reality: Stability through the Eyes of the Populace (Tom Rieger) ...............................................................................................................................................................236 3.6. Assessing the Stability of Interstate Relationships Using Game Theory (Frank Zagare) ...............................................................................................................................................242 3.7. Theoretical Foundations of Partnerships for Economic Development (Robert Axelrod).............................................................................................................................................247 3.8. Process Query System as a Framework for Modeling and Analysis of Regional Stability (George Cybenko, Douglas Madory) ...................................................................258 3.9. The Use of Cross‐impact Analysis for Modeling, Simulation, and Forecasting (Stephen Millett)............................................................................................................................267 3.10. Development of a Framework for Action: Community Resiliency as a Means of Achieving Stability (Ame Stormer, Jessica Wambach, Lt Gen (Ret) John Goodman) .........................................................................................................................................277 4. Case Studies ...................................................................................................................... 283 4.1. Sudan Strategic Assessment: A Case Study of Social Science Modeling (Robert Popp)...................................................................................................................................................283 4.2. Analyzing Stability Challenges in Africa: Case Study of an Approach (Tom Mullen)...............................................................................................................................................289