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Sediment Yield Modelling in the Upper Tsitsa Catchment, Eastern Cape, South Africa

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Sediment Yield Modelling in the Upper Tsitsa Catchment, Eastern Cape, South Africa Sediment yield modelling in the upper Tsitsa Catchment, Eastern Cape, South Africa. By Simone Norah Pretorius Submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree Master of Science in Environmental Management in the Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences. University of Pretoria Pretoria Supervisor: Professor Paul D. Sumner Co-supervisors: Mr Harold L. Weepener Dr Jacobus J. Le Roux Department of Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorology August 2016 i © University of Pretoria Declaration By submitting this assignment/thesis/dissertation electronically, I, Simone Norah Pretorius declare that the thesis/dissertation, which I hereby submit for the degree Master of Science in Environmental Management at the University of Pretoria, is my own work and has not previously been submitted by me for a degree at this or any other tertiary institution. Signature: …………………………… Date: 14/12/2016 Simone Norah Pretorius ii © University of Pretoria Abstract The Mzimvubu River is the largest river in South Africa without a dam. The Department of Water and Sanitation has identified the Tsitsa River Catchment on the Mzimvubu River as a potential site for a water resource development. The soils in the Tsitsa Catchment are prone to extreme soil erosion, in particular gullying. The sediment generated from these gullies and other forms of erosion will have a detrimental effect on any water resource development. Changing climate and land use will also affect soil erosion dynamics and thus need to be considered before any development is planned in the catchment. Previous studies have mapped the gully systems in the catchment as well as used hydrological models to determine erosion from sheet and rill processes. However, these studies did not account for the effects of change in land use or climate. The mapping of the gullies was also done manually, which is extremely time-consuming and is susceptible to human error. This study aims to determine the sediment yield in the catchment under current and future climate and land use scenarios as well as develop a methodology to identify and map the gullies automatically in order to determine the rate of gully growth from a time series of images. The study had two main components, the first was to study gully erosion in the catchment. In the second section the sheet and rill aspects of erosion under various climate and land use changes were modelled. Using object-based image analysis (OBIA) on SPOT 5 images a methodology was created to automate the task of gully mapping. This was applied to two SPOT 5 data sets one from 2007 and the other from 2012 in order to determine the rate of gully growth over the five- year period. Various accuracy assessments were also conducted to assess the accuracy of the methodology. It was determined that the methodology had an overall accuracy of 98% for the 2012 image and 99% for the 2007 image. There was an overall increase in gully erosion in the catchment by 28% in the five- year period. The estimated sediment yield generated from the gullies ranged between 7 and 14 t/ha/yr. It was concluded that OBIA resulted in faster processing times and more objective classification results. The second part of the study used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to determine the sediment yield from sheet and rill erosion. SWAT only considers sheet and rill aspects of erosion and disregards gully erosion thus ii © University of Pretoria both methods needs to be incorporated into the study in order to understand the complete dynamics of soil erosion in the catchment. SWAT was used to model the current land use and climate scenario using land cover data and observed weather data for the 2007-2012 period. On average 0.18 t/ha/yr of sediment is generated in the catchment from sheet and rill erosion. Using climate data from 1969 and projected to 2100, future sediment yield from sheet and rill erosion was estimated. The effects of possible land use change on sheet and rill erosion was also estimated by changing the land use component in SWAT into various crops that may be cultivated in the catchment over the next century. The results of the land use change showed that the current land use is optimal for minimal sheet and rill erosion and converting to maize crops will have the greatest impact on sediment yield This study aimed to understand the dynamics of soil erosion under current and changing land use and climate scenarios. It was concluded that the majority of the sediment is derived from gully erosion, which accounts for up to 70 times more sediment yield annually than sheet and rill erosion. Gully formation and propagation in the catchment is of critical concern to any land or water developments proposed for the Tsitsa Catchment. iii © University of Pretoria Acknowledgements I would like to take the opportunity to thank the various people who helped me both professionally and personally throughout the years working on my MSc thesis. An MSc thesis is a huge undertaking and it would not have been possible to complete without the help of the following people. First and foremost, I would like to extend my sincere gratitude to my supervisors who gave me guidance throughout the project. In particular, my supervisor at the ARC-ISCW, Mr Harold Weepener, who not only gave me technical support and recommendations but who also patiently, taught me so much in the fields of GIS and remote sensing. In addition, his weekly reviews of my thesis gave me the motivation to continually write throughout my project. I would also like to thank Dr Jay Le Roux who structured my project from the beginning, as it was a wonderfully intriguing topic where I was able to study so many aspects of the environment, from remote sensing and GIS modelling to climate change and water resources. Lastly, Professor Sumner who was always supportive and who edited my thesis. I would also like to thank the many staff at the ARC-ISCW and the University of Pretoria for their continuous advice and guidance. I was fortunate enough to receive recommendations and knowledge from Ms E. van den Berg on my SPOT 5 images and analysis. As well as from Dr Mohamed Ahmed who guided me in the photographic analysis of soil erosion. I am very grateful to Christien Engelbrecht who formatted the climate data from the six GCM models, which I was then able to use. Dr Franscois Engelbrecht and the CSIR for the use of their climate change data and for Dr Engelbrecht’s advice on analysing the results. I would also like to thank Louw Potgieter who took the time to peruse my soil information. Dr Danie Beukes, Dr Gary Patterson and Mr Piet Nell who all advised on soil sampling. I would also like to thank the wonderful support I received from the technical staff at the ARC-ISCW who always helped me fix technical errors on my PC and the various software issues that frequently arose throughout my project. In particular, Mr Philip Beukes whom I bothered many times with small problems and queries and who was always ready to help. iv © University of Pretoria The staff at the University of Pretoria also gave their advice throughout my studies. Mr Barend van der Merwe who was always there to assist and give advice on any topic and Mr Fritz van der Merwe who gave his assistance and worldly knowledge of GIS whenever I needed it. I would also like to thank the ARC and their PDP program who gave me the opportunity to pursue my MSc. Through the program, I received not only the financial support to conduct my research, the wonderful facilities and use of their software but also amazing experiences. I was able to attend conferences both in South Africa and abroad, which opened horizons and allowed my work to be reviewed numerous times helping me to see the many angles this project has. The ARC and the staff have been wonderful mentors throughout the project I am extremely grateful for everything they offered. I would also like to thank the Water Research Commission who funded this project and whose advice in the early stages helped me to develop a wonderful and hopefully valuable thesis. Last but certainly not least, I would like to thank the people who are closest to me and who provided support throughout the thesis. My loving parents who were my biggest believers throughout my undergraduate and post-graduate studies and who supported me wholeheartedly every step of this long journey. I will be forever grateful. My sister who was always there giving me the boost I needed to keep going and who listened to my endless moaning about software failures. Finally, my loving boyfriend Andre. Who believed in me every day even when I did not, and whose constant support I could always rely on. He gave me the strength and advice to push through the tough times and I am so grateful to him. v © University of Pretoria Table of Contents Declaration……………………………………………………………………………...ii Abstract………………………………………………………………………………….ii Acknowledgements……………………………………………………………………iv Table of Contents……………………………………………………………………...vi List of Figures…………………………………………………………………………..x List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………..xv List of Abbreviations………………………………………………………………….xvi 1. Introduction…………......……… …………………………………………...……...1 1.1 Introduction to the study……………………………………………….........1 1.1.1. Problem statement…………………………………………..6 1.1.2. General aims and objectives…………………………....….7 1.2. Rationale………………………………………………………..……….…...8 1.2.1. Modelling sheet and rill erosion…………………......……..……8 1.2.2. Modelling gully erosion…………………………………………...9 1.2.3. Catchment selection………………………………….…...........10 1.3. Specific objectives………………………………………….……………...11 1.3.1. Modelling sheet and rill erosion under current conditions…..11 1.3.2. Modelling gully erosion………………………………………….11 1.3.3.
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