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Stopping War Before It Starts: Civil War Prevention Methods And

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Stopping War Before It Starts: Civil War Prevention Methods And STOPPING WAR BEFORE IT STARTS: CIVIL WAR PREVENTION METHODS AND REAL-WORLD APPLICATIONS AN HONORS THESIS SUBMITTED ON THE TWENTY EIGHTH DAY OF APRIL, 2020 TO THE DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS OF THE HONORS PROGRAM OF NEWCOMB TULANE COLLEGE TULANE UNIVERSITY FOR THE DEGREE OF BACHELOR OF ARTS WITH HONORS IN POLITICAL SCIENCE BY ______________________________________ Wendy Cohen APPROVED: ____________________ Christina Kiel Director of Thesis ____________________ Geoff Dancy Second Reader _____________________ Elisabeth McMahon Third Reader ii This thesis examines the United Nations’ efforts to prevent civil wars. I first determine the signals that indicate if a country is likely to go into civil war. I then examine whether the United Nations is successful in identifying countries at risk of civil war and utilizing the most appropriate prevention methods to stop civil war before it starts. Chapter one introduces the UN’s role in conflict prevention as an international organization, defines pertinent terms and includes a literature review. The literature review reveals that there is a dearth of research on conflict prevention, relative to other aspects of conflict management. Chapter two goes into further detail about the UN’s role, what it looks for when determining when to get involved in a country that appears to be heading towards civil war, and the methods it uses to prevent those wars from escalating. I have chosen to use a comparative case study of Burkina Faso and Burundi (1991-2016) to determine if the UN is successful in using its prevention methods. Chapter three focuses on the case study Burkina Faso, a case in which the UN was able to prevent civil war. In contrast, chapter four focuses on Burundi, a case in which the UN was not able to prevent civil war. The thesis concludes with an analysis of why the UN was successful in one case but not the other, as well as suggestions for how the UN can improve upon these methods in the future. I have found that while the UN is successful in identifying the situations in which it needs to get involved in to prevent civil war, it cannot be the only international organization to give aid. It seems that the UN gave a substantial amount of economic aid to Burundi in an attempt to prevent civil war; however, because other international organizations did not give the same amount of economic assistance, there was still civil war. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS Section of Thesis Page No. Title Page [i] Blank Page Abstract ii Table of Contents iii List of Tables and List of Figures iv Chapter 1: Introduction and Literature Review 1 Section 1.1– Literature Regarding Prevention Methods 5 Section 1.2 – Literature Regarding Causes of Civil War 7 Chapter 2: Defining the United Nations and its Role in Conflict Prevention 19 Chapter 3: Case Study 1 – Burkina Faso 33 Chapter 4: Case Study 2 – Burundi 47 Chapter 5: Analysis and Conclusion 56 Bibliography 62 iv LIST OF TABLES Table No. Page No. Table 1 Indicators for Potential Instability 25 Table 2 How the UN Prevents Civil Conflicts 28 Table 3 Burkina Faso – Net Official Development 45 Assistance and Official Aid Received Over the Past 50 Years Table 4 The HDI Value and its Factors for Burundi 55 Table 5 Prevention Methods Used in the Burkina 59 Faso and Burundi LIST OF FIGURES Figure No. Page No. Figure 1 Burkina Faso – Net Official Development 44 Assistance and Official Aid Received Over the Past 50 Years Figure 2 Burundi – Net Bilateral Aid Flows from 54 Development Assistance Committee (DAC) Donors, Total Over the Past 50 Years 1 Chapter 1: Introduction and Literature Review There are many studies on conflict resolution, peacebuilding, and peacekeeping. While these are all important pieces of the study of civil and international conflicts, there seems to be much less research on ways in which people or organizations try to prevent conflict. The United Nations Charter states that the organization is “committed to maintaining international peace and security”.1 This thesis considers if and when the United Nations (UN) takes appropriate action to prevent conflicts. It focuses on the UN’s ability to prevent conflict, specifically in its efforts to prevent civil wars. There are gaps in the literature regarding this topic, which makes a study of prevention methods imperative. If we can learn to identify when a country is in need of UN assistance to prevent them from descending into civil war as well as determine which prevention methods are best suited in which cases, this could save the lives of many people. Before examining the prevention methods that the UN uses and which countries it decides to intervene in, it is important to demonstrate why the UN represents international organizations in this study and the services that it provides. The UN was developed in 1945 after the Second World War.2 51 countries organized in order to commit to “maintaining international peace and security, developing friendly relations among nations and promoting social progress, better living standards and human rights”.3 This organization has the ability to reach every corner of the globe and specializes in peacekeeping, peacebuilding, conflict prevention and humanitarian assistance.4 Due to its wide-reaching influence and goal to prevent conflict, the UN 1 “Charter of the United Nations.” United Nations, United Nations, www.un.org/en/charter-united-nations/. 2 “History of the UN.” United Nations Seventieth Anniversary, United Nations, 2015, www.un.org/un70/en/content/history/index.html. 3 Ibid. 4 “History of the UN.” United Nations Seventieth Anniversary, United Nations, 2015, www.un.org/un70/en/content/history/index.html. 2 is an important organization to examine to see if it effectively achieves the goals it has set out to accomplish. Of course, the UN does not act in a bubble and there will always be outside influences. While there are international influences that may affect the outcome of the situation, there should be a uniform decision-making process tailored to each individual situation. It is important to note that this research is limited to the prevention of escalation of civil conflicts into large-scale civil war. There has been a significant decrease in the number of civil wars since the end of the cold war, making civil wars of particular interest and the focus of this research.5 Some of the main questions this research seeks to answer is how the UN determines which cases to get involved in, if its methods for preventing conflict actually work, and even more specifically, which prevention methods work best. This research is conducted using a comparative case study between Burkina Faso and Burundi to determine why Burkina Faso was able to avoid civil war while Burundi was not. Furthermore, this research examines if the reason why Burkina Faso was able to avoid civil war was due to the help of the United Nations, and, if so, what types of prevention methods were used to ensure this success. The expectation is that the amount of economic aid given to a country that is perceived to be unstable or entering an unstable time will directly correlate with whether or not that country will enter into civil war. If the country receives more monetary aid when it is unstable, then it will not go into civil war. The area of fragility that is addressed with this aid is income inequality in developing countries. If a country does not receive the monetary aid necessary, it will continue to remain in its fragile state and fall into civil war. 5 Nagdy, Mohamed, and Max Roser. “Civil Wars.” Our World in Data, Global Change Data Lab, ourworldindata.org/civil-wars. 3 Before reviewing the literature and identifying the gaps within it, it is imperative to define the most important terms that will be used throughout the thesis: civil war and conflict prevention. According to Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), “war” is “a state-based conflict or dyad which reaches at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in a specific calendar year”.6 A “state-based armed conflict” as defined by the UCDP is “a contested incompatibility that concerns the government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths in one calendar year”.7 Based on this information, a state-based war or civil war would be conflict between two parties, one of which is the government, expressing incompatibility concerns about the government and/or territory where the dyad reaches at least 1,000 battle related deaths in one calendar year.8 Conflict prevention is stopping any violence from occurring.9 Whether it be armed conflict or civil war – conflict prevention would be the ability to stop either of these outbreaks of violence. The UN defines conflict prevention as ‘sustaining peace’, “which encompass activities to prevent the outbreak, escalation, continuation and recurrence of conflict”.10 Conflict prevention should not be confused with the concept of peacebuilding. The UN Secretary- General’s Policy Committee states that “Peacebuilding involves a range of measures targeted to reduce the risk of lapsing or relapsing into conflict by strengthening national capacities at all levels for conflict management and to lay the foundations for sustainable peace and development. Peacebuilding strategies must be coherent and tailored to the specific needs of the 6 “Definitions.” Department of Peace and Conflict Research, www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/definitions/. 7 Ibid. 8 Ibid. 9 Ibid. 10 Ibid. 4 country concerned, based on national ownership, and should comprise a carefully prioritized, sequenced, and therefore relatively narrow set of activities aimed at achieving the above objectives.”11 This differs from conflict prevention in that it peacebuilding could refer to preventing a relapse of conflict whereas conflict prevention refers to situations only in which there has not been a recent conflict.
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