Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur

0 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur

Acknowledgement

Local Adaptation Plans of Actions (LAPA) was prepared by the DevCon Development Consultants under the project called “GROW campaign” a joint collaboration of Oxfam in Pakistan and Indus Consortium and implemented in Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore districts.

Special thanks to the representatives of the government line departments, civil society, media, farmers and academia for providing information and support in consultation workshops/meetings. The DevCon team extends its appreciation to the management and project staff of Oxfam Pakistan and Indus Consortium for their continuous support and collaboration during the assignment.

1 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur

Table of Contents Acknowledgement...... 1 1. Background ...... 3 2. Purpose ...... 3 3. Key Objectives ...... 4 4. Methodology ...... 4 5. Geography ...... 5 6. Administration ...... 6 7. Secondary Data Findings ...... 6 7.1. Climate Change Trends in Pakistan ...... 7 7.2. Institutional Arrangement for Climate Change ...... 7 7.3. Economic Relevance of Agriculture ...... 9 7.4. Land se ...... 9 7.5. Food Security and Nutrition ...... 10 7.6. Challenges for the Agricultural Sector ...... 10 7.7 Agriculture and Climate Change ...... 11 7.8 Climate Change and Agriculture in Punjab ...... 11 7.9 Climate Change and Agriculture in District Rajanpur ...... 12 8. Primary Data Findings ...... 12 8.1. Issues ...... 12 8.2. Effects ...... 13 8.3 Recommendations ...... 13 9. LAPA Framework ...... 14 10.1 Climate Change Sensitisation ...... 15 10.2 Climate vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment ...... 15 10.3 Prioritization of adaptation options ...... 15 10.4 Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action ...... 15 10.5 Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes ...... 16 10.6 Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action ...... 16 10.7 Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action ...... 16 11. Framework for Plan of Action ...... 17

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1. Background

Indus Consortium (IC) a collaborative platform of 3 humanitarian and development organizations works on climate change, water governance, tax justice, democracy and governance. Humanitarian work is the key of the area of expertise of Indus Consortium.

Pakistan, currently ranking 145thof 187 countries on the Human Development Index (HDI), has a population of 177 million, 22.7% of whom live on less than $1.25 per day1.60.6% of rural households are food insecure2 and, lagging behind MDG1, the country has dropped from 52nd on the Global Hunger Index (GHI) in 2010 to 57th in 20123.In Layyah District, which has the 5th highest incidence of severe poverty amongst Punjab’s 35 districts4, 91% of the population have insufficient income to meet their basic needs5.

GROW campaign is a 04 years joint collaboration of Oxfam in Pakistan and Indus Consortium and implemented in Rajanpur, Layyah, Multan, Rawalpindi and Lahore districts. Facilitation in the development of local adaptation plan of actions (LAPA) in 5 respective districts, incorporation of small growers and woman framers’ input in draft CC policy of Punjab province and budget analysis/ advocacy on CC related budget and expenditure has been done. Youth engagement has been ensured through formal MOU signing and partnership with 3 top public universities of Punjab including University of Punjab, Lahore, Bahauddin Zakriya University, Multan and Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi.

Budget of provincial government of the Punjab is being analyzed three consecutive years as Climate Public Expenditure Review (CPER) / Budget Primer. Creating the drive through local level then to provincial level, a research is being planned to conduct in order to understand the budget cycle at district level.

2. Purpose National Climate Change Authority Act 20176 also emphasized to prepare the National Adaptation Plan and its constituent provincial and local adaptation plans of Actions, the would help out to design Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action Framework.

Indus Consortium has taken the initiative to develop sectoral Local Adaptation Plans of Action on Agriculture in two districts of Punjab, i.e. Rajanpur and Layyah. Moreover, in order to achieve more specific results and to highlight how climate change affect crops of the Rajanpur, agriculture LAPA’s in are made crop specific. The most affected crop from Rajanpur is wheat.

Local Adaptation Plans of Actions (LAPA) will support decision-makers from local-to-national level actors to:

1 Human Development Report 2011, United Nations Development Programme 2 National Nutrition Survey, 2011, Aga Khan University, Pakistan Medical Research Council and Government of Pakistan. 3 Global Hunger Index 2012, Welthungerhilfe, Concern Worldwide and International Food Policy Research. 4 Naveed and Ali (2012) Clustered Deprivation: District Profile of Poverty in Pakistan. Sustainable Development Policy Institute. 5 Siddiqui (2008) Income, Public Social Services & Capability Development: A Cross-district Analysis of Pakistan; Pakistan Institute of Development Economics. 6 National Climate Change Authority Act: http://www.na.gov.pk

3 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur

 Identify the most climate vulnerable Village Development Committees (VDC’s), wards and people and their adaptation outcomes and actions.  Prioritise adaptation actions in easy ways whereby local people make the prioritisation decisions.  Prepare and Integrate local adaptation plans for action into local-to-national planning in accordance with the Local Self Governance Act.  Identify appropriate service delivery agents and channels for funding to implement local adaptation plans for action. The LAPA Framework can thus ensure that the best sequence of adaptation actions is carried out by the most appropriate service providers in a timely and resource efficient manner.  Assess the progress of LAPA to ensure effective planning and delivery.  Provide cost-effective options for scaling out local-to-national adaptation planning.  Provide the understanding of how gender and social exclusion exacerbates the impact on women and excluded groups and provides information that support decision makers to make gender sensitive and inclusive processes for all stages of adaptation interventions. 3. Key Objectives The main objectives of District Level Sectoral Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) on Agriculture are as under:

• LAPAs shall be developed to see mitigation and adaptation options available according to the district profile of impacts of climate change on agriculture sector, available resources (human, financial and infrastructure) and implementation strategies and plans by GROW District Forums. • LAPAs shall herald a window of lobbying and advocacy efforts at district as well as provincial level and also provide opportunity to gear up efforts to integrate these LAPAs into district plans of Agriculture Department.

4. Methodology DevCon collected primary data from district Rajanpur. The data collection process included FGDs/consultations with relevant line departments, CSOs, Media and farmers (men and women).

FGDs with Community Members

FGDs with farmers (men and women) were conducted at District level. Discussion mainly focused on current agriculture practices, cropping pattern, climate resilient crops, challenges, coordination mechanism with agriculture department, services available from agriculture department, current polices and plan.

Consultation Workshop

One day consultation workshop organized in District Rajanpur to get the input of relevant stakeholders. The stakeholder’s views were compiled and used for LAPA development. The following government departments and stakeholders were consulted during data collection.

. Agriculture Extension . Agriculture Field & Research . Agriculture Water Management . Agriculture Pest Warning . Agriculture Soil Fertility . Agriculture Marketing

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. Food . Environment . Irrigation . Forest . Finance & Development Officer . ADP Officer . Women farmers/ Community members \ small farmers . Local CBO/ NGOs representative . PRSP representative . DDMA representative

5. Geography District Rajanpur was formed in 1982 by separating two tehsils Rajanpur & Jampur, of the then district D.G.Khan. Rajanpur is situated on the band between River Indus and hilly territories of Balochistan. To the North of it is located D.G.Khan district. In the South, it touches Jackobabad district of Sindh Province. Districts Sibi of Balouchistan is located towards West of Rajanpur. The enormous Indus makes Eastern boundary of the district separating it from districts of Muzaffargarh and Rahimyar Khan.

The climate of the district is tremendously hot in summer while in winter it is very cold due to nearness to Koh Suleman range of mountains. The land is plain except for some hilly portions. A large area of the district is sterile and uncultivated so far.

Figure 1: District Rajanpur Map

5 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur

6. Administration

Pakistan’s 18th constitutional amendment was signed into law in 2010 targeting to decentralize political supremacy. It pursued to curb the oft-abused powers of the Pakistani presidency and empower the country’s four provinces by transferring federal-level capital, resources and authorities to provincial governments. The main purpose was to ensure upright governance and impartiality at the doorstep. This plan gave the assurance of the rights of the people and their partaking in the communal welfare.

Figure 2: Local Government Structure and its Hierarchy

7. Secondary Data Findings During the last 2-3 years, it has been observed that in district Rajanpur and especially in UC Rakh Kot Mithan & Murghai, wheat production has been badly decreased every year due to negative impact of climate change. Previously, average production of wheat was more than 55 million per acre but during last 2-3 years the production of wheat reduced and last year it was observed to be 28-35 million per acre. Reason of this decrease was heat wave increase in fertilizer quantity, more weedicides (pesticides), more water for irrigation and ultimately expenditures increased but production decreased.

Local community especially riverine community is more affected from this reduce in wheat crop. For example, production of wheat has been decreased and ultimately, they could not be able to meet their expenses which results in the increase in poverty. Similarly, on the other side due to climate change usage of fertilizers, herbicides, pesticides have increased, crops now require more water and also have storage issues at household level.

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Under the emerging challenges of climate change, food security and water scarcity, increase in production of cereals, pulses, fruits and vegetables to meet the food requirement of increasing population is direly needed. In countries like Pakistan, majority of the people living in rural areas consume substantial quantity of pluses for meeting their daily meal needs because these are rich source of protein and substitute of other costly sources of protein - meat and fish. Major pulses include gram, lentil, mung and mash. The pulses are grown on 5% of the country's total cultivated area. Punjab contributes 80% in total production of the pulses in the country and occupies 5% of the total cropped area.

7.1. Climate Change Trends in Pakistan A significant warming trend of about 0.57°C in the annual mean temperature was observed in the past century from 1901 to 2000 in Pakistan. This increase is less than the mean annual temperature increase of 0.75°C in the past century in the South Asia region.7 A more accelerated trend of warming, with the rise of 0.47°C, was observed from 1961 to 2007 in the country. The warmest year recorded until 2007 was 2004, and the highest increase is observed during winter when the temperature ranges from 0.52°C to 1.12°C. This is in agreement with the pronounced rate of warming observed over the South Asia region in the decade 1998–2007, which was attributed to increase in winter temperature and post-monsoon changes. On a regional basis, the highest increase in winter temperature was observed for Balochistan province, while the northwestern parts of the country showed negative temperature trends in the summer. The annual temperatures in Pakistan increased by 0.87°C (maximum) and 0.48°C (minimum) from 1960 to 2007.8

Based on the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) station data from 1951 to 2000, a rising tendency in the annual mean surface temperature was observed throughout the country.9 In the hyper arid plains, arid coastal areas, and mountain regions of Pakistan, an increase of 0.6°C–1.0°C in the mean temperature was observed, whereas an increase of 0.5%–0.7% in solar radiation was noted over the southern half of the country. In central Pakistan, the cloud cover decreased by 3%–5% with a consequent increase of 0.9°C in temperature.

The continuous and longtime span data of various meteorological parameters of 56 selected PMD meteorological stations showed the behavior of summer and winter maximum and minimum temperatures during the last decade.24 A time series of area-weighted mean annual temperatures of Pakistan for the years 1961 to 2013, after applying uniform weighing factor, based on regional surface feature characteristics for all the climatic zones of Pakistan.

7.2. Institutional Arrangement for Climate Change The role and importance of strong institutions to address climate change is highly acknowledged to mainstream the issue in development policies and programs. Strong institutions promote adapting to climate change and ultimately transform the system by building resilience. However, developing countries, including Pakistan, suffer from inefficient and weak institutional structures, ultimately yielding poor governance systems.

Institutionalization of climate change in Pakistan finds its roots in the early environmental efforts dating back as early as the mid-1970s. Pakistan signed and ratified 14 international environmental commitments

7 M. Ahmed and S. Suphachalasai. 2014. Assessing the Cost of Climate Change and Adaptation in South Asia. Manila: ADB. 8 Q. Z. Chaudhry et al. 2009. Climate Change Indicators of Pakistan. Technical Report. No. 22. Islamabad: Pakistan Meteorological Department. 9 B. F. Anjum et al. 2005. Climate Change Perspective in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Meteorology. 2(2). pp. 11–21.

7 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur between 1971–2001, including the United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change and Kyoto Protocol, which acted as stimuli in initiating and guiding the policy processes and efforts on climate change in the country. Significant progress has been made to set up institutional structures for guiding the environmental initiatives in the country. After over 4 decades, however, these efforts still remain fragmented, with insufficient coordination, political support, and ownership.

After the 18th constitutional amendment was passed in 2010, the Ministry of Environment was devolved to the provinces and a new Ministry of Disaster Management was established in 2011. This was later renamed as the Ministry of Climate Change in 2012, which raised the issue of climate change to a cabinet level portfolio. In 2013, the Ministry of Climate Change was downgraded to a division of the Cabinet Secretariat and remained in this position until early 2015, when it was upgraded to the level of a ministry again. Table 9 outlines the institutionalization of environment and/or climate change in Pakistan.

Table 1: Brief History of Institutionalization of Climate Change in Pakistan Year Accomplishment Purpose and/or Function 1974 Environment and Urban Affairs Division established at Follow up to Stockholm Declaration June 1972 the Federal level 1983 Pakistan Environment Protection Ordinance enacted First comprehensive environment-specific legislation 1989 Environment and Urban Affairs Division upgraded to Federal Ministry of Environment, Forestry, and Wildlife 1991–1993 National Conservation Strategy prepared It provided the broad framework for addressing environmental challenges National Environmental Quality Standards adopted in 1993 1995 • Cabinet Committee on Climate Change established • Acted as policy coordination forum for climate change 1997 • Pakistan Environmental Protection Act enacted • First environmental act of the country 2002 • Global Centre for Impact Studies on Climate Change • This research center on climate change functioned established for 10 years as a development project 2004– • Prime Minister Committee on Climate • Includes Prime Minister, Ministers of 2005 Change convenes National Environment Policy Water and Power, Food and Agriculture, Science and Technology, Environment, Planning Commission, Special Advisor to the Prime Minister 2006 • National Energy Conservation Policy • National Renewable Energy Policy • Clean Development Mechanism National Operational Strategy 2010 • 18th Amendment to the 1973 Constitution • Devolution of power to the provinces 2011 • Ministry of Environment ceases to exist • Functions transferred to the Planning Commission • New Federal Ministry of Disaster Management established

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2012 • Ministry of Disaster Management renamed to the • Elevate climate change issue to a cabinet level Ministry of Climate Change portfolio • National Climate Change Policy approved by Federal • A dedicated policy on climate change Cabinet • Punjab and Balochistan Environmental Protection Act prepared and enacted • Deals with environmental cases; 2013 decision • “Green Benches” established in all High Courts and prioritizes environmental cases in the High Courts Supreme Court of Pakistan by the Chief Justice of Pakistan • National Disaster Management Plan approved • National Sustainable Development Strategy 2013 • Ministry of Climate Change downgraded to Division • Becomes part of Cabinet Secretariat of Climate Change • Global Climate Change Impact Studies granted • Serves as the secretariat for the Prime autonomous status Minister Committee through “GCISC Act 2013” • National Disaster Risk Reduction Policy approved 2014 • Framework for Implementation of Climate Change Policy adopted 2015 • Division of Climate Change upgraded to the Ministry • Federal focal ministry on all climate change-related of Climate Change issues

7.3. Economic Relevance of Agriculture Agriculture remains the second largest economic sector in Pakistan, contributing approximately 18.9% to the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and absorbing 42.3 % of the labour force, mainly composed of women. The sector is not only the largest employer in the country but generates over 75% of export revenue through agri-based textiles (cotton) and agri-food products.

Despite its critical importance to food security, livelihoods, economic growth and export revenues, agricultural productivity remains low, with significant yield gaps compared to global averages in key crops like wheat, rice, cotton and sugarcane. The average farm size in Pakistan is 2.6 hectares (ha), with approximately 43% of the farmers categorized as smallholders with holdings of less than one ha, while only 22% own more than 3 ha of land. In 2016, for first time in the past 15 years, the sector experienced a negative growth rate of 0.2%, primarily due to the impact of extreme events on key crops, a lack of access to key inputs, and a global downturn in commodity prices.

Critical investments in improved seeds, farming technology and techniques, and water infrastructure are needed to tackle the emerging challenges to the sector’s development, especially in the context of declining water availability and climate change impacts.

Agriculture provides employment for roughly 25 million people in Pakistan and is the main income source for 34% and 74% of economically active men and women respectively. Yet women have limited access and control over productive resources (e.g. land, irrigation infrastructure, and agricultural inputs), low awareness of improved technologies and skills for value addition and marketing, and limited access to extension and financial services. Their role in the household and in daily agricultural activities, however, varies across regions according to local customs and traditions.

7.4. Land se Pakistan receives monsoon rainfall in the summer, while in the winter it receives rainfall due to western systems (prevailing winds from the Mediterranean). These two forces broadly determine the two main cropping seasons in the country. These are ‘Kharif’ (April-June), suitable for summer crops cultivation

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(e.g. rice, sugarcane, cotton, maize, pulses), and ‘Rabi’ (October-December) when wheat, lentil, tobacco, rapeseed, barley and mustard are grown. The major crops are cotton, wheat, rice, sugar cane and maize that cover over 50% of the harvested area. Some crops such as pulses, onions, potatoes, chili, and tomatoes, have gained in economic importance in the country, given the consistently high prices of these essential commodities. Climate variability and change, pest infestation, and commodity price fluctuations are some of the challenges to crop productivity.

7.5. Food Security and Nutrition Natural disasters, economic instability, and militancy have challenged food security in Pakistan over the past years, despite significant increases in staple crop yields. Pakistan ranks 78th out of 113 countries in the Global Food Security Index, with more than half of the population (60%) experiencing food insecurity. The average food supply in the country is estimated at 2,440 kcal/person/day, yet this is rated insufficient to meet demand (the country boasts an index score of 39.7, where 100 indicates sufficiency of supply) given high geographical disparities in food production and supply. From a nutrition perspective, over one- fifth (22%) of the total population is undernourished, one-third (31%) of children are underweight for their age (15% are affected by wasting) and diets generally lack diversity (Pakistan scores a 53.60 on the food diversity index).

7.6. Challenges for the Agricultural Sector Despite significance of agriculture to the country’s economy and its people, the sector currently faces a multitude of challenges including population growth, reduced water resource availability and gender inequality.

Pakistan’s population has more than doubled in the past two decades, growing at a rate of approximately 2% per year and is expected to further increase to 244 million by 2030 and 300 million by 2050. At the same time, life expectancy in the country is projected to increase from 66 to 71 years by 2050. Such exponential growth will put significant strains on the already extended and vulnerable agriculture system, boosting demand for food. The current per capita caloric availability in Pakistan, 2,432 kcal/day is likely to fall unless food production keeps the pace with the projected population growth.

Deficiency in water availability, degradation of soil, and an increasingly animal-based diet are additional threats to food security in Pakistan. Changing climate conditions such as rainfall, temperature, and humidity multiply these threats, affecting the availability and quality of natural resources and increasing the vulnerability of the sector. Most of the country’s territory is classified as arid to semi-arid. Three-fourths of the country receives less than 250 mm of rainfall annually, while about 20% of such area receives less than 120mm Rainfall alone, then, is generally insufficient for growing agricultural crops, maintaining pastures, and growing fruit trees. Roughly 8 million ha of land in Pakistan is idle and unutilized due to unfavorable climatic conditions. Supplemental water is required for profitable agricultural production in Pakistan, either from irrigation or through water harvesting techniques.

The rural population, which represents the backbone of the agricultural sector, is comprised mainly of small-scale, poor farmers who lack access to modern farming technologies, machinery, fertilizer inputs, as well as drought and other weather-tolerant seeds. The high price of seeds and a lack of support from government further restrict farmers from adopting improved techniques. Rural infrastructure lacks properly built roads, transport and storage facilities, electricity, education and health services. Each of these features is currently inadequate to meet the requirements of a growing agricultural sector.

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7.7 Agriculture and Climate Change Agriculture in our country is significantly affected by short-term climate variability and longer-term climate change. Pakistan is ranked among the top ten most climate vulnerable countries in the world in the Global Climate Risk Index. The country has a diversified geography and climate. Climate change threats are exacerbated in the country due to the arid climate and reliance on water from the glacial melt in the north.

Periods of severe droughts, followed by devastating floods are common in the country and have contributed to low crop yields, loss of livestock, damage to irrigation infrastructure and food shortages in recent years. Economic losses associated to the 2010-2014 floods amounted to US$ 18 billion, affecting the livelihoods of 38 million people and causing damages to approximately 4.3 million ha of cropland. Changes in climate have been manifested through long-term reduction in rainfall in the semi-arid regions of the country and higher glacial melts that contribute to over 70% of river flows. Moreover, the mean temperature across the country has increased by 0.5°C in the past 30 years.

Changes in monsoons and increased temperatures are likely to bring considerable challenges to agriculture. Increases in temperature will likely speed up crop growth cycles and shorten the time between sowing and harvesting, affecting crop yields. According to the Climate Change Vulnerability Index, droughts are expected to increase in winter, affecting the yield of cash harvests. Meanwhile, increase in precipitation in the summer season may cause floods throughout different areas of Pakistan.

7.8 Climate Change and Agriculture in Punjab The province of Punjab has the largest share in the agriculture sector, with 57.1% of the cultivated land belonging to the province. It produces the majority share of cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane crops and milk. Extreme temperatures and a changing global climate have serious implications for the future of agriculture in Punjab. Changing climate affects both cropping patterns as well as crop productivity through changes in temperatures and precipitation levels. A recent study by Siddiqui et al (2012) finds that the impact of climate change is statistically significant on crop productivity in Punjab.

A more recent study finds that maximum temperatures adversely affect wheat production, while the effect of minimum temperature is positive and significant for all crops. Rainfall effect towards the yield of a selected crop is negative. To cope with and mitigate the adverse effects of climate change, there is a need for the development of heat- and drought-resistant high-yielding varieties to ensure food security in the Province and country. Although these studies have their statistical limitations, they have shown that climate change has real and adverse implications for the future of agriculture in Punjab (Punjab Economic Report, 2017).

The province of Punjab has the largest share in the agriculture sector, with 57.1% of the cultivated land belonging to the province. It produces the majority share of cotton, wheat, rice, and sugarcane crops and milk. Agriculture, predominantly contributes to income generation for the people of the province. It is imperative to protect the agriculture sector from extreme events and natural hazards. The change in climatic conditions has a profound effect on the agriculture sector, innately connected with the environment. Punjab, much like the entire country, suffers from various issues including climate change and natural disasters. Floods have been the major cause of damages in the province between 1980-2015. Riverine floods have the largest spread across the province and

11 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur have historically affected the greatest number of people, and destroyed property, arable land and crops (Lead, 2016).

7.9 Climate Change and Agriculture in District Rajanpur The district of Rajanpur is comprising of three tehsils and 44 UCs. Agriculture in Rajanpur depends solely upon canal irrigation since rainfall is negligible in the region. The five rivers of the Punjab meet at the locality of Wang near Mithankot; hence these rivers provide water for irrigation as well as for domestic usage. Rainfall occurs during the monsoon season (July–September). Occasional heavy rainfall causes flooding in this region, but such floods are rare. In Rajanpur, flood waters come from the Koh Sultan and Shacher torrents, as well as the Indus. The district is famous for cotton and sugarcane crop, although they are cultivating wheat and rice as well (Eikipedia.org). An empirical study reveals the effect of climatic change on rural livelihood of farmers in the district. As per study climate change has adversely affected on agriculture yield, income of small landholders. While Changes in natural temperature directed cause for the unscheduled rains, flood that cause for the damage of mature crops of small landholders. The livelihood also causes for the weak health condition of the small landholder. The agricultural sector (crops and livestock), which is the main source of food and income (livelihood) for majority of local people in the area damage. So, the farmers are unaware from the changes of climate change (Rehman et al., 2018).

The table given below shows the yield of wheat crop in district Rajanpur. The data shows fluctuation in the yield of wheat crop in both the districts. The main cause of fluction in yield is the change in climatic conditions which includes floods, fluctuation in temperature, rains etc.

Table 2: Yield of Wheat in District Rajanpur

Year Rajanpur maunds/acre 2009-10 27.30 2010-11 27.70 2011-12 23.92 2012-13 26.24 2013-14 26.40 2014-15 28.60 2015-16 31.16 Source: PDS (various years)

8. Primary Data Findings 8.1. Issues During consultation with the government, civil society & farmers communities the following issues were highlighted which are negatively impacting the efforts made by stakeholders to combat the facts of climate change on agriculture. The key issues are;

1. Lack of coordination/communication between stakeholders and communities 2. Insufficient, skilled & technical human resources in government line departments 3. Lake of prioritization by Government institutions for policy development regarding climate change

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4. Insufficient allocation of financial resources for Climate Change 5. Inflexibility of polices implemented in different regions without considering local dynamics 6. Less focus on community awareness raising regarding climate change adaptation 7. Communities are not introduced to progressive farming techniques that are more water conservative 8. Provision of approved quality seeds 9. Knowledge of crops and cropping patterns 10. Change in rain fall pattern 11. Less rain falls as compared to past on the other hand the district Rajanpur is also prone to heavy floods that destroy the crops mainly in moon soon season.

8.2. Effects 1. Reduction in agriculture Crops productivity 2. Lesser utilization of land 3. Less opportunities for agriculture labor 4. Change in cropping timing 5. Livestock fodder availability reduced 6. Animal mortality increasing day by day 7. Worsened household food security condition 8. Increased migration trend in the communities

8.3 Recommendations Soft Measures 1. Farmers are needed to be educated on climate resilient farming 2. Imparting technical knowledge and skills to farmers by establishing farmer schools/advisory centres 3. Networking with other forums working on smart agriculture techniques 4. Formation of agriculture and seasonal calendar 5. Improved coordination among government line departments and with other stakeholders 6. Exposure visit for farmers to learn about new agriculture practices and researches 7. Documenting indigencies practices to use this knowledge base to adopt best practices 8. Pictorial resource material (IEC) on climate change impact and its impact on agriculture needs to be made available at community level 9. Re-schedule of sowing pattern of crops 10. Research on seeds, vegetation and plantation techniques 11. Adopt best practices (saving soil test, water, usage of land leveler, low usage of poisons/pesticides/ Fertilizers/chemical) 12. Community should encourage to do versified farming to better utilized their land and resources

Hard Measures

1. Efficiency of canal systems/water channeling needs to be improved 2. A careful assessment need to conducted to identify mitigation measures to minimize community crops/property losses during floods 3. Provision of environment friendly seeds to the farmers

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4. Provision of Agriculture equipment’s and machinery 5. Provision of Kitchen Gardening kits and seeds to encourage communities to grow vegetables to meet their food security needs 6. Special attention should be given on proper land leveling to reduce water losses 7. Provision of Green Manure to farmers for environment protection

9. LAPA Framework The LAPA Framework consists of seven steps for integrating climate change resilience into local-to national planning processes. The steps involved in preparing and implementing local adaptation plans for action are shown in Figure 3 and include:

1. Climate change sensitisation 2. Climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment 3. Prioritization of adaptation options 4. Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action 5. Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes 6. Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action 7. Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action

Each step is detailed in the following sub-sections outlining why each step is important, the actions to be undertaken and the tools that can be used.

Step-1 Sensitisation (Carried out in all Steps)

Step-2 Step-7 Review and Vulernerability & Progress Assessment Adaptation Assessment

Step-6 Step-3 Implementation of Prioritisation of Adaptation Plan Adaptaion Options

Step-5 Step-4 Integration of Formulation of Adaptation Plan into Adaptation Plan Planning Processes

Figure 3: Steps of LAPA (from GoN, 2011)

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10.1 Climate Change Sensitisation Effective adaptation planning that addresses the potential impacts of climate change requires information on climate induced impacts, potential adaptation options and challenges and information on how to access resources for adaptation. Climate change has a differentiated impact on agriculture, men, women and other social groups. Information collected therefore needs to be available in disaggregated manner considering gender, age and social status. This information is needed by district decision makers, civil and private sector stakeholders and climate vulnerable households alike. Sensitizing stakeholders to the impacts of climate change and to adaptation options is an essential starting point for adaptation planning. Secondly, climate change sensitisation also supports stakeholders to identify and establish institutions that will directly implement and/or assist in the implementation of adaptation plans. The likely institutions may include Agriculture extension & AR department, DDMA, Irrigation, District networks and civil society.

10.2 Climate vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment Integrating climate change resilience into local-to-national development planning requires adequate information on climate vulnerability and adaptation options. In order to make decisions, district planners need to identify approaches and interventions that will enable the most climate vulnerable communities to adapt to the impacts of climate change on agriculture and other sectors.

Common Hazard

 Riverine Flood  Heavy Rains with Thunderstorms  Flash Flood  Drought  Epidemics  Industrial Accidents The climatic change negatively impacting on rural livelihood of farmers, rural agricultural yield and production. The incomes of small farmers directly affected on agricultural yield due to climate change. However, the changes in natural temperature directed cause for the unscheduled rains, flood that cause for the damage of mature crops of small farmers. The livelihood also causes for the weak health condition of the community. The agricultural sector (crops and livestock), which is the main source of food and income (livelihood) for majority of local the people in the area damage.

10.3 Prioritization of adaptation options Identified adaptation options would need prioritization with due consideration of climate threats. The process of prioritising adaptation actions helps decision makers in taking forward a robust set of actions for implementation. Prioritisation helps ascertain actions that are cost-effective and sustainable and are able to address the needs of the most vulnerable communities first.

10.4 Developing Local Adaptation Plans for Action Developing a Local Adaptation Plan for Action is an essential step in ensuring that prioritised adaptation options are implemented. The following 5WH framework can be used to develop an adaptation plan:

1. What actions? 2. Where to implement? 3. Who will implement?

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4. When to implement? 5. How much will it cost?

10.5 Integrating Local Adaptation Plans for Action into planning processes Integration of adaptation plans into sector and development planning would help to address climate induced challenges in an effective and sustainable manner. Integrating LAPA into local-to-national development planning processes and outcomes allows climate vulnerable men, women, households, communities, wards, VDC to articulate their adaptation priorities, and draw down on government, civil and private sector resources for sustainable implementation.

10.6 Implementing Local Adaptation Plans for Action Implementation of the LAPA is important to bridge the gap between adaptation assessment, planning and delivery. If the adaptation plan has been prepared in a logical way and the leaders and those who will carry out the actions including the monitoring and evaluation (M&E) have been identified, then implementation is simply a matter of carrying out the plan.

10.7 Assessing progress of Local Adaptation Plans for Action LAPA Monitoring and Evaluation supports the development planning process in dealing with uncertainty by collecting and evaluating evidence on the progress and outcomes of the LAPA. Monitoring and evaluation (M&E) and reviews provides opportunities for learning, reflection and feedback to support responsive and iterative adaptation planning.

16 11. Framework for Plan of Action

What Action? Connection to Where to Who will When to implement TIMING? How to implement What will Who will pay Thematic implement? implement? ? it cost? (Donor Areas )?

Activities Location Immediate Medium Long Methods Amount Donor/ (Within Term Term of Implementing Six (Within (Within Money Agencies months) 1-2 2-5 years) years) MHVA need to be i. Agriculture District  Agriculture   Situational/Vulnerability To be Deputy conducted to identify ii. Climate Rajanpur extension Assessment added commissioner mitigation measures to Change  DDMA through planning minimize community Adaptation  Agriculture officer along with crops/property losses Universities budget finance during disaster  NGOs officer,  Research Institutes agriculture  Revenue department, Department Agriculture Universities and INGOs

Provision of climate i. Agriculture District  Agriculture   Training sessions & To be resilient seeds ii. Climate Rajanpur Extension &AR Community meetings added Punjab Seed varieties to farmers Change  Agriculture Corporation, Adaptation Universities Private  Seed producers Corporation and  NGOs NGOs

17 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur

Access point for i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Agriculture   UC wise Farmer Centre To be Government certified seeds for ii. Climate Mithan & UC Extension & AR added UN/Bilateral small farmer (1-2 Change Murghai  Agriculture Donors & INGOs Acre) and on farm Adaptation Universities facilitation through iii. DRR  NGOs field officer iv. Food  Private sector Security v. Nutrition vi. Health vii. Livelihood iii. Livestock Networking with other i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Government line   Monthly Consultation To be Government, forums working on ii. Climate Mithan & UC departments meetings with focal added INGOs and smart agriculture Change Murghai  NGOs persons recommended Media techniques adaptation  Farmers groups by departments,  Civil society seminars and workshops Development of Web portal Media Messaged, Mobile apps

Coordination meeting i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Districts Forum,  Quarterly meetings To be Government of the District forum ii. Climate Mithan & UC Government Line added UN/Bilateral Rajanpur Change Murghai  NGOs Donors & INGOs Adaptation  Civil Society iii. DRR iv. Food Security v. Nutrition vi. Health vii. Livelihood iii. Livestock Imparting technical i. Technical UC Rakh Kot  Agriculture   Technical To be Government knowledge and skills Skills Mithan & UC Extension & AR training/Awareness added Agriculture ii. Agriculture Murghai, Extension

18 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur to farmers by iii. Climate  Irrigation sessions Consultation Pest companies establishing farmer Change  Agriculture meetings, seminars Agriculture water schools/advisory Adaptation Universities management Centres  INGO/NGOs Education  Private sector Institutes  Civil society Exposure visit for i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Agriculture   Exposure visits to To be Government farmers to learn about ii. Climate Mithan & UC Extension & AR government farms, added Universities, new agriculture Change Murghai  Irrigation, private Farms. NGOs and practices and Adaptation  Agriculture Private Sector researches Universities  NGOs IEC Material on i. Agriculture District  Agriculture   Awareness raising To be Government climate change and its ii. Climate Rajanpur Extension campaign added Media and impact at community Change  Agriculture Advertisement Mobile level. Adaptation Universities campaign, Social Media companies  INGO/NGOs Campaign, Radio  Civil society Messages, Tv programs Theater/ street i. Agriculture District  Agriculture   Theater/ street To be Government and performance ii. Climate Rajanpur Extension performance added INGOs Change  Agriculture Adaptation Universities  INGO/NGOs  Civil society Re-schedule of sowing i. Agriculture District  Agriculture   Research & Model To be Government pattern of crops ii. Climate Rajanpur Extension & AR forms added (Agriculture Change  Agriculture Extension, Adaptation Universities Research Institute, Agronomist) Improve resource i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Irrigation   Advocacy, land To be Government and saving technology Mithan & UC department leveling, Rehabilitation added INGOs Murghai  Water Management and construction of canals

19 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur

Provision of i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Agriculture   To be Government Agriculture ii. Climate Mithan & UC Engineering Advocacy added UN/Bilateral equipment’s Change Murghai  Donor Donors and machinery and adaptation organizations INGOs techniques iii. DRR INGOs iv. Food Security v. Nutrition vi. Health vii. Livelihood iii. Livestock Provision of Kitchen i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Agriculture   Community training To be Government Gardening kits and ii. Climate Mithan & UC Extension sessions & provision of added UN/Bilateral seeds to encourage Change Murghai  Horticulture seeds and kits Donors and women farmers to Adaptation department Advocacy and INGOs grow vegetables to iii. DRR  NGOs coordination with meet their food iv. Food department Security security needs v. Nutrition vi. Health viii. Livelihood Provision of Green i. Agriculture UC Rakh Kot  Farmers   Community training To be Government Manure to farmers for ii. Climate Mithan & UC sessions & Green added UN/Bilateral environment Change Murghai manure production Donors and protection adaptation INGOs iii. DRR iv. Food Security v. Nutrition vi. Health vii. Livelihood ix. Livestock Documenting i. Agriculture  Agriculture  Documentation of Case To be Government, indigencies practices ii. Climate District Universities study and best practices, added Media and Social to use this knowledge Change Rajanpur  NGOs Video Documentaries Media Adaptation  Farmer Groups

20 Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA)-District Rajanpur base to adopt best practices

Media campaigns i. Agriculture  Government   Radio messages To be Government, ii. Climate  Media and Social Newspaper articles added Media and Social Change Media impact stories Media Adaptation  INGOs