PAYING THE PRICE The cost of mental health care in England to 2026 Paul McCrone Sujith Dhanasiri Anita Patel Martin Knapp Simon Lawton-Smith © King’s Fund 2008 First published 2008 by the King’s Fund Charity registration number: 207401 All rights reserved, including the right of reproduction in whole or in part in any form ISBN: 978 1 857175 714 A catalogue record for this publication is available from the British Library Available from: King’s Fund 11–13 Cavendish Square London W1G 0AN Tel: 020 7307 2591 Fax: 020 7307 2801 Email:
[email protected] www.kingsfund.org.uk/publications Edited by Edwina Rowling Typeset by Andrew Haig & Associates Printed in the UK by Charlesworth Contents List of figures and tables vii About the authors xiii Foreword xv Executive summary xvii Background xvii Methods xvii Findings xviii 1 Introduction 1 Background 1 Rationale for the review 5 Aims of the review 6 Structure of report 6 2 Methods 7 Quantifying mental health need 7 Estimation of service provision 8 Estimation of service and total costs 9 Intervention modelling 9 3 Projected demographic change in England, 2007–2026 11 Population projections by ethnic group 13 Summary 14 4 Depression 15 Summary 15 Introduction 15 Prevalence estimates 16 Population estimates 18 Service costs and lost employment 20 Projected costs 25 Scenario modelling 27 5 Anxiety disorders 35 Summary 35 Introduction 35 Prevalence estimates 36 Population estimates 38 Service costs and lost employment 38 Projected costs 43 Scenario modelling 43 6 Schizophrenic disorders