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Arran Locality Partnership

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Arran Locality Partnership Arran Locality Partnership Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership What we will cover: Population Housing Health SIMD 2016 Population Change Population distribution by locality (2015) Arran 3% Garnock Three Towns Valley 24% 15% North Coast Irvine 17% 29% 3% 12% Kilwinning 4,562 Source: NRS Small Area Population Estimates Locality Population Estimates 2015 45,000 39,517 40,000 35,000 32,915 30,000 25,000 22,827 20,128 20,000 16,181 15,000 10,000 4,562 5,000 ‐ Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Three Valley Coast Towns Source: NRS Small Area Population Estimates 2016 Arran Population Drops THE population of the Arran has dropped by more than 400 people - despite an overall increase in the number of people living on Scottish islands. According to the latest census figures, the number of islanders throughout the country has risen by 4 per cent to 103,702. The census, which took place on March 27, 2011, determined that islanders represented 2 per cent of Scotland's 5.2 million population….. Locality Population Estimates 2013‐2015 45,000 39,517 40,000 39,271 35,000 32,915 Down ‐5.1% 30,000 Down ‐6.2% 25,000 21,584 22,827 21,221 20,128 20,000 17,255 Down 16,181 15,000 ‐1.1% 10,000 4,613 4,562 5,000 0 Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Coast Three Valley Towns 2013 2014 2015 Source: NRS Small Area Population Estimates 2016 Arran Locality ‐ Population Estimates 2011‐2015 10,000 9,000 8,000 2011 Census Down 7,000 128 ‐2.7% 6,000 5,000 4,690 4,613 4,562 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Percentage Change in Locality populations 2011 to 2015 8.0 6.0 5.5 4.0 2.0 0.0 Arran Garnock Irvine Kilwinning North Three North ‐2.0 Valley ‐0.5 Coast Towns Ayrshire ‐0.7 ‐1.4 ‐2.7 ‐4.0 ‐6.0 ‐6.5 ‐6.9 ‐8.0 Arran Population Projection 2012‐2026 3,000 2,500 2,000 +15% 0 to 17 1,500 18 to 64 Population 65+ 1,000 ‐47% 500 ‐32% 0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 - North Coast 2012 2016 The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. 0‐17yrs 0‐17yrs Over Over 16% 14% 65s 65s 32% 49% 37% 52% The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. Working Age Working Age 18‐64yrs 18‐64yrs Source: National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016 Population Change ‐ Summary Age Group Arran North Ayrshire 0 to 17 years 32% 9% 18 to 64 years 47% 13% 65 years & over 15% 31% Overall population change ‐25% ‐4% Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014 79.0 78.2 78.0 77.0 77.1 76.5 76.0 75.9 Scotland 75.0 74.4 East Ayrshire 74.0 North Ayrshire 73.8 73.5 73.2 South Ayrshire 73.0 72.0 71.0 70.0 2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014 Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. North Scotland Arran 1 Ayrshire 76.6 76.5 79.7 years years years MALES The image part with relationship ID rId3 was not found in the file. North Scotland Arran 1 Ayrshire 85.5 years 81.0 years 80.8 years FEMALES Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates 1 Based on median of life expectancy for relevant North Coast, West Kilbride & Cumbrae intermediate zones Female Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) Fairlie and Rural Skelmorlie and Rural West Kilbride and Seamill Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and… Irvine Broomlands Largs North Springside and Rural Irvine Tarryholme Arran 83.3 Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Dalry East and Rural Kilbirnie North Largs South Ardrossan North West Beith East and Rural Dalry West Kilwinning Central and North Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Irvine Central Scotland 80.8 Largs Central and Cumbrae Saltcoats North West Irvine East Beith West Kilwinning Pennyburn Stevenston North West Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Ardrossan North East Irvine Castlepark North Kilbirnie South and Longbar Stevenston Hayocks Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Castlepark South Saltcoats Central Irvine Fullarton Ardrossan Central 76.1 Kilwinning West and Blacklan Saltcoats North East 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0 Male Life Expectancy (IZs) Kilwinning Whitehirst Park… Skelmorlie and Rural Fairlie and Rural Arran 80.9 Ardrossan North West Largs South Springside and Rural Largs North Saltcoats North West Kilbirnie North West Kilbride and Seamill Irvine Perceton and Lawthorn Dreghorn Stevenston Ardeer Kilwinning Central and North Dalry West Scotland 76.6 Beith West Irvine Girdle Toll and Staneca Ardrossan North East Kilwinning Pennyburn Irvine Tarryholme Beith East and Rural Stevenston Hayocks Largs Central and Cumbrae Kilbirnie South and Longbar Dalry East and Rural Saltcoats North East Irvine East Saltcoats Central Irvine Bourtreehill Irvine Central Ardrossan Central 72.1 Irvine Broomlands Kilwinning West and Blacklan Stevenston North West Irvine Castlepark South Irvine Fullarton Irvine Castlepark North 0.0 50.0 100.0 Household Income –Arran Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire) £36,402 £34,625 £35,000 £30,537 £30,000 £25,000 £20,000 £15,000 £10,000 £5,000 £0 North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain Gross Household Income (% of households by locality ) 35.0 30.0 28.7 25.0 22.7 20.0 19.8 20.0 households 17.2 of 15.5 15.0 14.1 13.9 12.2 11.9 Percentage 10.2 10.0 8.8 5.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 £0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+ Arran Garnock Valley Irvine Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain House Prices Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements 250,000 200,000 193,000 150,000 (£) 150,000 133,000 126,500 Price 118,000 100,000 92,000 Median 85,000 81,500 75,000 68,750 60,000 50,000 ‐ Source: NRS Registers of Sasines 2015 Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014 100.0 87.5 80.0 60.0 2014 ‐ 48.4 2004 40.0 27.6 20.0 Change % 0.0 ‐20.0 SIMD 2016 ‐ Arran Scotland’s geography of deprivation • The geography of deprivation remains stable • Deprivation is mostly urban & clustered • Glasgow has a disproportionate share • Rural areas have pockets of need More than nine out of ten datazones in the Top 20% most deprived are urban areas Mauchline to Dundee captures 94% of Scotland’s top 20% most deprived datazones (1306 / 1395).
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