How Policy Actions Affect Short)Term Post)Crisis
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HOW POLICY ACTIONS AFFECT SHORT-TERM POST-CRISIS RECOVERY? Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) BEM, June 2012, Bratislava Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 1 / 20 Many papers investigated why - Berglof et al. (2009), Berkmen et al. (2009), Giannone et al. (2010), Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2009), Rose and Spiegel (2009), Blanchard et al. (2010a), IMF (2010), Crespo and Feldkircher (forthcoming)... Right now, it is obvious that di erent countries are recovering di erently from the crisis. Still, no research on the issue. Background Di erent countries were a ected in di erent ways by the Great Recession. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 2 / 20 Right now, it is obvious that di erent countries are recovering di erently from the crisis. Still, no research on the issue. Background Di erent countries were a ected in di erent ways by the Great Recession. Many papers investigated why - Berglof et al. (2009), Berkmen et al. (2009), Giannone et al. (2010), Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2009), Rose and Spiegel (2009), Blanchard et al. (2010a), IMF (2010), Crespo and Feldkircher (forthcoming)... Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 2 / 20 Still, no research on the issue. Background Di erent countries were a ected in di erent ways by the Great Recession. Many papers investigated why - Berglof et al. (2009), Berkmen et al. (2009), Giannone et al. (2010), Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2009), Rose and Spiegel (2009), Blanchard et al. (2010a), IMF (2010), Crespo and Feldkircher (forthcoming)... Right now, it is obvious that di erent countries are recovering di erently from the crisis. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 2 / 20 Background Di erent countries were a ected in di erent ways by the Great Recession. Many papers investigated why - Berglof et al. (2009), Berkmen et al. (2009), Giannone et al. (2010), Lane and Milesi-Ferretti (2009), Rose and Spiegel (2009), Blanchard et al. (2010a), IMF (2010), Crespo and Feldkircher (forthcoming)... Right now, it is obvious that di erent countries are recovering di erently from the crisis. Still, no research on the issue. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 2 / 20 It will investigate which factors a ect short-term GDP growth after economic crises. It will focus on the policy actions: 1 Monetary policy 2 Fiscal policy 3 Banking regulation and supervision policy This paper... This paper will do that. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 3 / 20 It will focus on the policy actions: 1 Monetary policy 2 Fiscal policy 3 Banking regulation and supervision policy This paper... This paper will do that. It will investigate which factors a ect short-term GDP growth after economic crises. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 3 / 20 1 Monetary policy 2 Fiscal policy 3 Banking regulation and supervision policy This paper... This paper will do that. It will investigate which factors a ect short-term GDP growth after economic crises. It will focus on the policy actions: Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 3 / 20 2 Fiscal policy 3 Banking regulation and supervision policy This paper... This paper will do that. It will investigate which factors a ect short-term GDP growth after economic crises. It will focus on the policy actions: 1 Monetary policy Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 3 / 20 3 Banking regulation and supervision policy This paper... This paper will do that. It will investigate which factors a ect short-term GDP growth after economic crises. It will focus on the policy actions: 1 Monetary policy 2 Fiscal policy Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 3 / 20 This paper... This paper will do that. It will investigate which factors a ect short-term GDP growth after economic crises. It will focus on the policy actions: 1 Monetary policy 2 Fiscal policy 3 Banking regulation and supervision policy Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 3 / 20 The scal policy e ect is even stronger in highly-leveraged countries In other words, public saving during crises hurts post-crisis recoveries substantially This paper... Findings All three policies have signi cant positive in uence on recovery Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 4 / 20 In other words, public saving during crises hurts post-crisis recoveries substantially This paper... Findings All three policies have signi cant positive in uence on recovery The scal policy e ect is even stronger in highly-leveraged countries Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 4 / 20 This paper... Findings All three policies have signi cant positive in uence on recovery The scal policy e ect is even stronger in highly-leveraged countries In other words, public saving during crises hurts post-crisis recoveries substantially Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 4 / 20 Park and Lee (2003) - which factors in uence short-term growth after 176 currency crises? Depreciation of exchange rate and supportive monetary and scal policy. Endogeneity problems - output and policy variables measured over the same period. Hong and Tornell (2005) - recoveries from 100 currency crises. Credit expansion and reserve inadequacy before the crisis depress growth after the crisis. No clear relationship between policy variables and recovery. Again, endogeneity - policy variables contemporaneous with recovery. Abiad et al. (2009) - medium-term output after 88 banking crises. Expansionary scal policy correlated with higher growth, but not the monetary policy. Again, endogeneity - policy variables measured before the growth, but they both refer to post-crisis period. Existing literature Existing literature Very few papers investigate determinants of post-crisis recoveries. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 5 / 20 Hong and Tornell (2005) - recoveries from 100 currency crises. Credit expansion and reserve inadequacy before the crisis depress growth after the crisis. No clear relationship between policy variables and recovery. Again, endogeneity - policy variables contemporaneous with recovery. Abiad et al. (2009) - medium-term output after 88 banking crises. Expansionary scal policy correlated with higher growth, but not the monetary policy. Again, endogeneity - policy variables measured before the growth, but they both refer to post-crisis period. Existing literature Existing literature Very few papers investigate determinants of post-crisis recoveries. Park and Lee (2003) - which factors in uence short-term growth after 176 currency crises? Depreciation of exchange rate and supportive monetary and scal policy. Endogeneity problems - output and policy variables measured over the same period. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 5 / 20 Abiad et al. (2009) - medium-term output after 88 banking crises. Expansionary scal policy correlated with higher growth, but not the monetary policy. Again, endogeneity - policy variables measured before the growth, but they both refer to post-crisis period. Existing literature Existing literature Very few papers investigate determinants of post-crisis recoveries. Park and Lee (2003) - which factors in uence short-term growth after 176 currency crises? Depreciation of exchange rate and supportive monetary and scal policy. Endogeneity problems - output and policy variables measured over the same period. Hong and Tornell (2005) - recoveries from 100 currency crises. Credit expansion and reserve inadequacy before the crisis depress growth after the crisis. No clear relationship between policy variables and recovery. Again, endogeneity - policy variables contemporaneous with recovery. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 5 / 20 Existing literature Existing literature Very few papers investigate determinants of post-crisis recoveries. Park and Lee (2003) - which factors in uence short-term growth after 176 currency crises? Depreciation of exchange rate and supportive monetary and scal policy. Endogeneity problems - output and policy variables measured over the same period. Hong and Tornell (2005) - recoveries from 100 currency crises. Credit expansion and reserve inadequacy before the crisis depress growth after the crisis. No clear relationship between policy variables and recovery. Again, endogeneity - policy variables contemporaneous with recovery. Abiad et al. (2009) - medium-term output after 88 banking crises. Expansionary scal policy correlated with higher growth, but not the monetary policy. Again, endogeneity - policy variables measured before the growth, but they both refer to post-crisis period. Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 5 / 20 Endogeneity Endogeneity, i.e. reverse causality When regressing output on scal policy, for example, positive coecient can mean that scal policy a ects output positively, but also that higher output allows more supportive policy. That would bias the policy coecient upwards. Even when scal policy is dated before the output, positive coecient can be obtained because policy makers increase spending today in anticipation of higher output in the future... Branimir Jovanovic (Tor Vergata, Rome) () BEM, June 2012, Bratislava 6 / 20 Endogeneity How to avoid it? But, in times of crises