Velindre Cancer Centre Relocation Transport Assessment

23 March 2017

Velindre Cancer Trust Fitzalan House Fitzalan Road Cardiff CF24 0EL United Kingdom

T +44 (0)29 2046 7800 F +44 (0)29 2047 1888 mottmac.com

Velindre Cancer Centre 361662 01 A RelocationC:\Users\cha77685\AppData\Local\Microsoft\Windows\Temporary Internet Files\Content.Outlook\37W3G4O3\Velindre CC Transport Assessment Final (002).docx TransportMott Assessment MacDonald

23 March 2017

Velindre Cancer Trust

Mott MacDonald | Velindre Cancer Centre Relocation

Contents

Executive Summary 1

1 Introduction 5 1.1 Overview 5 1.2 The New Velindre Cancer Centre 5 1.3 Scope of Work 5 1.4 Meetings 6

2 Policy Context 7 2.1 Healthcare Policy 7 2.2 National Transport Policy 7 2.3 Local Transport Policy 8

3 Development Proposals 10 3.1 Site Location 10 3.2 Site Description 10 3.3 Development Proposals 10 3.4 Emergency Access 11 3.5 Pedestrian access 11

4 Sustainable Transport and Accessibility 12 4.1 Introduction 12 4.2 Public Transport 12 4.3 South Wales Metro Proposals 15 4.4 Active Travel 16

5 Travel Plan 18

6 Highway Improvements 20 6.1 Main site access route 20 6.2 Emergency Access 22

7 Traffic Data 24 7.1 Overview 24 7.2 Survey Type 24

361662 | 01 | A | 23 March 2017 C:\Users\cha77685\AppData\Local\Microsoft\Windows\Temporary Internet Files\Content.Outlook\37W3G4O3\Velindre CC Transport Assessment Final (002).docx Mott MacDonald | Velindre Cancer Centre Relocation

8 Base Traffic Flows 28 8.1 Junctions to be Assessed 28 8.2 Base Traffic Data 28

9 Forecast Future Year Base Traffic Flows 29 9.1 Growth Factors 29 9.2 Committed Developments 30

10 Forecast Development Trip Generation 31 10.1 Trips Removed from Future Year Base Data 31 10.2 Development Trip Generation 31 10.3 Trip Distribution 38

11 Junction Capacity Analysis 40 11.1 Background 40 11.2 Longwood Drive Roundabout 41 11.3 Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Junction Analysis 44

12 Parking and Servicing 51 12.1 Introduction 51 12.2 Car Parking Calculation approach 51 12.3 Policy Context 51 12.4 Base Data 53 12.5 Methodology and Assumptions 53 12.6 Parking Requirements – Motorised Vehicles 54 12.7 Private Motorised Vehicle Parking Mitigation analysis 56 12.8 Total Parking Requirements – Motorised Vehicles 57 12.9 Emergency and Service Vehicles 57

13 Construction 58 13.1 Introduction 58 13.2 Construction management plan 58 13.3 Construction Routes 58 13.4 Longwood Drive Roundabout 59 13.5 Bridge Crossings 60 13.6 Main site development – Construction of nVCC 60

14 Collision Analysis 61 14.1 Collision Data 61 14.2 Collision Summary Analysis 62 14.3 Summary 63

15 Conclusion 64 15.1 Capacity analysis 64 15.2 Sustainable modes 65 15.3 Conclusion 65

Appendices 66

A. Site Plan 67

B. Highways Alignment Drawings 68

C. Flow Diagrams 69

D. Supporting Documents 70

E. Development Trips 71

F. ARCADY Results 72

G. LINSIG Results 73

H. Travel Plan 74

Executive Summary

Improvements in cancer treatment have led to an increasing rate of survival but the number of people getting cancer is also increasing year on year. Velindre National Health Service Trust (VNHST) has known for some time that these facts mean, without change, Velindre Cancer Centre (VCC) will increasingly struggle to meet forecasted levels of demand whilst continuing to deliver the highest level of care, quality, and patient experience in the 21st century. The proposed new facility will provide a regional cancer centre for South East Wales covering the Cwm Taf, Cardiff and Vale, Anuerin Bevan and Abertawe Bro Morgannwg (ABM) (Bridgend) health boards.

This Transport Assessment has been prepared by Mott MacDonald on behalf of Velindre NHS Trust in support of the planning submission for the relocation of Velindre Cancer Centre.

The new Velindre Cancer Centre (nVCC) will provide in the region of 39,000m2 of health floor space providing non -surgical critical services including: Radiotherapy, Chemotherapy, Pharmacy, Out patients, Imaging, and a small number of In-patient beds. In addition, the Maggie’s Centre Charity plan to build a support unit on the proposed site.

The nVCC proposals have been developed within the context of existing planning and health care policies, which must be considered for the development to be aligned with the aspirations and objectives of the relevant planning bodies.

Development Proposals The proposed development site is comprised of previously undeveloped land currently not accessible by vehicles from the highway network. It is situated on the northern outskirts of Cardiff, approximately 2km from Whitchurch Village, 6km north of Cardiff City Centre and 400m from Coryton Interchange, giving good connections to the M4, A470 and the local highway network. Adjacent developments include the Whitchurch Hospital site, the residential areas of the Hollybush Estate, Clos Coed Hir, Coryton Railway station and ASDA Superstore (Coryton).

The proposed development consists of the cancer centre and associated infrastructure that includes the vehicle main site access route, an emergency vehicle access route, internal site roads, a new pedestrian access, pedestrian linkages to Coryton Railway station, vehicle parking areas, internal pedestrian routes and associated utilities infrastructure, public realm, and landscaping.

Proposed Site Access Arrangements The main site access would be provided from the north of the site via the existing roundabout on Longwood Drive. It is proposed to upgrade the roundabout and the arms that serve Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory junction and the ASDA Supermarket site. A new access road would spur off from the ASDA access road to the south-east of McDonalds, across the disused railway cutting via a 3- span bridge and enter the main site area through the north-west boundary. The bridge location allows an optimised highway alignment, minimising the number of curves in the road and maximising the length of existing road used, thus reducing the cost and environmental impacts of the road construction. The proposed alignment would provide a 6m wide road giving two-way vehicle movement and a shared pedestrian and cycle lane.

A secondary ‘emergency only’ access is proposed from the Hollybush Estate; this access would only be used in the event of an emergency and gated to prevent other vehicular access. Pedestrian access to the east of the site will be provided by the existing bridge with an upgraded footway.

Other upgraded pedestrian and cycle accesses would be provided from Pendwyallt Road and Coryton Rail Station connecting in to the local public rights of way near the site.

Proposed highway improvements

To improve traffic flow on the development access roads some modification of the Longwood Drive road lay-out is required. This includes;

● Modification of the stop line widths on all arms of Longwood Drive Roundabout ● Increasing the inscribed circle diameter from 23m to 28m and reducing the island radius from 3.5m to 2m radius ● Extension of the two-lane approach on Longwood Drive East from 20m to 60m to provide a dedicated left turn for access to ASDA and the proposed development. ● Provide two lanes increasing to three from Longwood Drive Roundabout to Coryton Gyratory signalised junction rather that the present one lane to three lane configurations. The ‘emergency only’ access from Hollybush Estate is proposed as a bridge deck with a single unmarked 5.5m wide carriageway with 0.6m wide verges on either side, providing adequate carriageway width for emergency vehicles to pass each other on the structure.

Sustainable Transport Sustainable transport and active travel was considered in line with the requirements of the Active Travel (Wales) Act (2013) and Cardiff Council’s Local Transport Plan (2015 – 2020).

The availability of bus and rail services in the locality have been identified and included in the development strategy. The VNHS Trust is in talks with local bus operators to provide services directly into the site.

The Transport Assessment shows the current plans to connect the existing walking / cycle routes to the development and proposed new routes from Coryton station and adjacent to the northern access road.

The report includes the current Velindre travel plan, which will be updated for the new hospital location.

Trip generation The traffic flows were assessed for three years: 2016 (Base); 2022 (Opening); and 2032 (Design) in the AM and PM peaks. Base traffic data was obtained through a traffic survey programme on the local highway network in 2015 and 2016. Microprocessor Optimised Vehicle Actuation (MOVA) data was supplied by Traffic Wales in 2016 from the Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory signalised junction assessment.

Future year growth was determined by applying TEMPro Interim v7.1 growth factors for the Cardiff 010 area and the National Transport Model 2015 traffic growth dataset for urban principal roads, adjusted using WebTAG factors for forecast fuel price and income changes. The resulting background traffic growth show a forecast increase of 12% between 2016 and 2022 and 30% between 2016 and 2032.

Development trips have been generated for staff, patient, deliveries, and other ad-hoc trips associated with the hospital and applied to the base and future year flows.

Staff trip calculations are based on information provided by the Velindre NHS Trust. The trip arrival and departure profile and percentage travelling by car has been developed from information given in the Velindre staff travel to work survey 2016.

The Patient trip profile is based on the information contained in the Workforce / Activity and Capacity model developed by GE Finnamore Health Care Planners and further information provided by VCC operational management.

The Other Goods Vehicle (OGV) and Light Goods Vehicle (LGV) trip profile has been developed on known delivery schedules provided by VCC with an allowance made for ad-hoc and non-hospital related trips.

Junction modelling Two junctions were assessed using industry standard software

● Longwood Drive roundabout assessed in ARCADY. The results show that Longwood Drive roundabout with the proposed improvements operates within capacity in all existing and development scenarios, including sensitivity tests undertaken at plus 20% and 50% development traffic for 2022 and 2032.

● Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory signalised junction, assessed in LinSig. The junction was assessed for the existing situation and the development proposals both with and without the depot arm as this has very low flows and does not operate every cycle. The analysis covers the existing junction layout and the proposed layout.

Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Signalised junction The assessment results indicate that the junction with the existing layout will start to experience capacity issues without the development approaching 2032.

With the proposed Longwood Drive realignment, the junction modelling results indicate that ‘with the development’ the junction will operate just within theoretical capacity in 2032 without depot signal operation, with a Degree of Saturation (DoS) of 99.5% on Longwood Drive and 98.9% on the Circulatory arm but operates over theoretical capacity in the PM peak with the depot arm on both the Circulatory arm and Longwood Drive, with DoS of 103.6% and 100.3% respectively. Therefore, it is concluded that the junction will operate at or above capacity with or without the development by 2032

Car parking The section sets out the results of the calculations undertaken to assess the daily motor vehicle parking requirements of staff and patients attending nVCC as well as staff for the Maggie’s centre, Trust HQ, TCS, conference centre, the project company’s daily management team and maintenance staff.

The parking requirement has been calculated with due regard to parking policy but it is accepted that due to the nature of the illness, the type of treatments offered, the specialist nature of the work and the limited number of experienced staff a higher percentage of patients and staff will travel by private motor vehicle.

The anticipated parking requirement has been calculated from information provided by VNHS Trust, Velindre operations management, Staff Travel to Work Survey 2016 and the TRICS data base factored to reflect the number of staff expected on site at any one time and the operation performance of the different hospital units.

The minimum parking requirement including Disabled provision, the conference centre, two-wheeled vehicles, and Maggie’s centre is 841 spaces in 2022 rising to 879 by 2032.

Construction The anticipated opening date for the nVCC is 2022 with the construction programmed to take approximately 2.5 years, with construction starting towards the end of 2019. Prior to this a programme of enabling works are required to provide the site access requirements. A Construction Management Plan detailing a construction programme and methodology that clearly demonstrate how vehicle movements will be managed to meet programme constraints, minimise disruption and operate safely will be provided by the appointed contractor.

The proposed bridge construction routes have been identified as the existing ASDA Access Road and a temporary access from the south, via the railway cutting or the existing Whitchurch hospital site.

A site compound is envisaged in the ASDA carpark. The exact location is subject to agreement. Deliveries are proposed outside of ASDA’s main trading periods. With appropriate levels of traffic management in place.

The main site development will commence on completion of the enabling works. The site compound will be located within the proposed site and will include parking for staff and laydown areas. Site worker access by personal transport will be limited by employing measures such as Park and Ride with shuttle bus provision.

The primary construction access route for all vehicles will be via ASDA Access Road. it is envisaged that the average vehicles per day will be less than 100, although there may be individual instances where figures exceed on a specific daily basis.

Velindre NHS Trust are committed to providing good access to the site by all modes for staff and patients enabling the new Velindre Cancer Care centre to meet the Welsh Government and NHS Wales requirements for Cancer Care for south east Wales and the Welsh Government and Cardiff Councils objectives for transport provision.

1 Introduction

1.1 Overview This Transport Assessment has been prepared by Mott MacDonald on behalf of Velindre NHS Trust, in support of the planning submission, to assess the transport issues relating to the proposed new Velindre Cancer Centre. It identifies the measures proposed to deal with the transport impacts in relation to all forms of travel and to support the use of more sustainable modes. The assessment covers the development once operational and constructed.

1.2 The New Velindre Cancer Centre With the increase in the numbers of people getting cancer and improved survival rates Velindre NHS Trust has known for some time Velindre Cancer Care Centre will increasingly struggle to meet forecast levels of demand whilst continuing to deliver the highest level of care, quality and patient experience.

The new Velindre Cancer Centre (nVCC) is proposed to provide in the region of 39,000m 2 of health floor space. No surgical treatment would be provided at the centre, but provision for the delivery of the following critical services would be provided:

● Radiotherapy ● Chemotherapy ● Pharmacy ● In-patient Beds ● Out-patient services ● Support Services and, ● Imaging The nVCC is to be designed with the needs of the patient at its core, reinforcing the reputation of the current Velindre hospital as a centre of excellence for cancer treatment. The new facility aims to make Velindre an international focal point for Research and Development with an emphasis on expanding clinical trials and improving the translation research links between “bench and bed”. A centre for learning, teaching and research and development would therefore be included in the planning application. In addition to the nVCC, a Maggie’s Centre development is planned on the site to work in partnership with Velindre, offering free practical, emotional, and social support to people with cancer and to their family and friends.

1.3 Scope of Work This document sets out the methodology and results of work undertaken to assess the likely traffic impact of the development proposals on the local highway network.

This Transport Assessment covers the following;

● Section 2 – Provides the policy context ● Section 3 - Sets out the development proposals, conditions, and constraints in context of the development site location. ● Section 4 – Gives an overview of the public transport connectivity the proposed active travel (Walking and Cycling) measures.

● Section 5 - Provides an outline Travel Plan ● Section 6 - Provides information on the proposed highway realignment ● Section 7 - Gives the traffic count data. ● Section 8 - Presents the base year traffic flows. ● Section 9 - Presents the forecast future years’ base traffic flows. ● Section 10 - Provides information on the development trip generation methodology and calculations of trips forecasts for the proposed development, including all assumptions made. ● Section 11 - Provides the junction capacity analysis. ● Section 12 – details the development parking requirements ● Section 13 - Deals with Construction traffic ● Section 14 – Provides collision analysis. ● Section 15 – Conclusions

1.4 Meetings The analysis has been undertaken in accordance with current policy requirements of Cardiff Council and Welsh Government and agreed at meetings on:

● Cardiff Council on the 20th October 2016; and 23th February ● Welsh Government on19th May 2016, 13th December and 20th January 2017

2 Policy Context

The new Velindre Cancer Care Centre (nVCC) will be developed within the context of existing planning policy, which must be considered so that the development can be aligned with the aspirations and objectives of the relevant planning bodies. This section firstly sets out the relevant healthcare policy that underpins the rationale behind the nVCC and then considers the relevant transport planning policy at national and local level.

2.1 Healthcare Policy The healthcare policies form the key policy and legislative context within which the nVCC must be developed and form the basis for service improvements to be provided.

The Welsh Government sets out the strategic framework and formulates the health and social care policy which is to be implemented by NHS Wales and its partners when planning and delivering services for Wales. The relevant healthcare policy is as follows:

● NHS wales – Delivery Framework 2013-14 and Future Plans (May 2013): Explains the delivery priorities for NHS Wales and how these align with government policy and the need to improve standards. ● Social Services and Well-being (Wales) Act 2014: Imposes duties on local authorities, health boards and Welsh Ministers, requiring them to work towards promoting the well-being of those who need care and support. ● Health and Care Standards (April 2015): Establishes a basis for improving the quality and safety of healthcare services in Wales, by providing a framework that can be used in highlighting areas for improvement. ● Working Together to Transform Cancer Services in South East Wales (April 2015): Sets the vision for the future of cancer services at Velindre and how these will integrate with the wider context of cancer care across Wales. ● Together for Health – Cancer Delivery Plan up to 2016 for NHS Wales and its Partners (June 2012): Provides a framework for action by Local Health Boards and NHS Trusts. It sets out the Welsh Government’s expectations and responsibility of the NHS in Wales to meet the needs of people at risk of cancer or affected by cancer. ● Cancer Delivery Plan for Wales 2016 – 2020 (November 2016): Aims to close the gap with the best performing European countries by giving everyone with cancer the highest standard of care.

2.2 National Transport Policy The transport aspects of national planning strategy and policy for Wales are set out by the Wales Transport Strategy, and Planning Policy Wales Technical Advice Note (TAN) 18 on Transport. Recent legislation in the form of the Active Travel (Wales) Act 2013 places duties on local authorities across Wales to plan for walking and cycling.

Wales Transport Strategy (One Wales: Connecting the Nation, April 2008). The overarching ambition for transport in Wales is set out in the Wales Transport Strategy. This ambition includes reducing the greenhouse gas and environmental impact of transport whilst at the same time improving accessibility and safety. To achieve these ambitions, the expectation is to improve access by public transport, cycling and walking.

The nVCC will act as a key site for healthcare and employment in South East Wales and will address the aspirations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve public transport integration by

providing clear pedestrian and cycle connections between the site and local bus stops and rail stations. By improving these connections the development has the potential to encourage a mode shift towards active modes and public transport.

Active Travel (Wales) Act (November 2013) The Active Travel (Wales) Act makes it a legal requirement for local authorities in Wales to plan for, improve, and promote suitable walking and cycling routes within designated built-up areas. By connecting key sites such as workplaces, hospitals, schools and shopping areas with active travel routes, the intention of the Act is to encourage people to rely less on their cars when making short journeys.

The nVCC site is located within the Cardiff built-up area (and is therefore within the remit of the Act) and will encourage use of active modes through integration with the surrounding network of pedestrian rights of way as well as linking in with cycling infrastructure including the Taff Trail and Cardiff Strategic Cycle Network (Enfys). This will help to fulfil the Act’s aspiration to provide access to workplaces and hospitals and reduce reliance on cars for short journeys.

Planning Policy Wales Technical Advice Note (TAN) 18: Transport (March 2007) Planning Policy Wales (most recently updated in November 2016) sets out the land use planning policies for Wales. The document is supplemented by a series of Technical Advice Notes (TANs).

TAN 18 describes how to integrate land use and transport planning, and explains how transport impacts of development should be assessed and mitigated. TAN 18 sets out the thresholds at which planning applications should be accompanied by a Transport Assessment. New hospitals with a gross floor area exceeding 2,500sqm require a Transport Assessment.

TAN 18 also contains advice on parking standards, designing for inclusive mobility and promoting alternatives to the car, integrating development with policies for walking and cycling, and improving public transport provision. Each of these categories is being considered as part of the nVCC development:

● Parking requirements have been carefully examined to ensure that adequate parking is provided for both employees and patients, yet is at an appropriate level in accordance with the underlying advice in TAN 18; ● Alternatives to the private car are being promoted through the design of inclusive pedestrian environments, and connections to surrounding walking and cycling networks; and ● The development will be integrated with the local public transport (bus and rail) networks

2.3 Local Transport Policy Local transport policies are contained primarily within the Cardiff Local Development Plan 2006-2026 and the Cardiff Local Transport Plan 2015-2020. The aspects that are relevant to the nVCC are set out in this section.

Cardiff Local Development Plan 2006-2026 (LDP) The Cardiff LDP provides the statutory framework for land use development within Cardiff until 2026. The LDP establishes a plan-led approach to meeting the city’s future housing and employment needs, along with associated supporting local healthcare and education services. The LDP was adopted in January 2016 and now forms the basis for decisions on land use planning and determining housing and employment site planning applications.

Although the LDP is not intended to deal with major regional healthcare facilities, such as the nVCC, there are some general principles which are being followed in developing the Centre.

The LDP identifies the importance of both implementing new infrastructure and delivering sustainable transportation solutions, seeking to minimise travel demand and provide a range of measures and

opportunities to reduce reliance on the car. The LDP also requires new housing and employment development to provide improved travel choices for the wider community. Although it is not being developed as a new housing or employment site, the nVCC will support LDP principles by providing new connections to walking and cycling routes and linking in to public transport routes.

Cardiff Local Transport Plan 2015-2020 (LTP) The Cardiff LTP identifies the key transport issues relevant to Cardiff, and the high level interventions needed to address these issues. It also details the delivery priorities for the plan period, and the longer-term aspirations up to 2030.

The LTP seeks to promote ‘schemes which facilitate easy interchange between transport modes and services’ and encourage ‘development of active travel networks to increase walking and cycling for local journeys’. The intention is that schemes included in the LTP programme will complement transport infrastructure that is provided in conjunction with developments brought forward through the LDP.

Desired LTP outcomes, which are relevant to the nVCC, include improved access to jobs, modal shift to bus, and improved non-car travel opportunities between communities and healthcare sites. The LTP suggests that these outcomes will be met through a combination of high-level interventions such as strategic bus corridor development, developing the active travel network through the Cardiff Strategic Cycle Network (Enfys) programme, and strategic junction improvements.

Key transport scheme delivery packages that are relevant to the nVCC are:

● Cardiff Strategic Cycle Network Plan (Cardiff Council, 2011): Proposes a network of cycle routes (known as ‘Enfys’) and a 5-year delivery programme, accompanied by a Cycle Design Guide. The nVCC will be in close proximity to strategic cycle routes running through Forest Farm as well as the nearby NCN 8 ‘Taff Trail’ and links will be provided to these routes. ● Walkable Neighbourhoods Plan (Cardiff Council, 2013): Proposes interventions for improving walkability within key areas in Cardiff. The nVCC will engage with the surrounding pedestrian environment by providing safe and well-lit pedestrian footpaths both within the site and connecting to nearby walking and cycling routes and to public transport networks. ● Improving access to local stations: Proposes improvements to sustainable access to stations including Coryton, the closest rail station to the nVCC.

3 Development Proposals

3.1 Site Location The proposed development site is situated in the north of Cardiff approximately 2km from the centre of Whitchurch Village and 6km north of Cardiff City Centre. Coryton Interchange, connecting to the M4, A470 and the local highway network is located approximately 400 metres from the site. The site is not currently accessible by vehicle from the highway network. Pendwyallt Road and Park Road located to the east of the site are the closest public roads and connect Whitchurch village to Coryton Interchange. Prominent adjacent users to the site include: Whitchurch Hospital to the southeast; the residential areas of Hollybush Estate and Clos Coed Hir, and Coryton railway station to the northeast, ASDA and Coryton House to the north, and GE Healthcare to the northwest.

Figure 1: New Velindre Cancer Centre Site Location

Source: OS Data @ Crown Copyright and Database right 2016

3.2 Site Description The site is currently open meadow and a mixture of grasslands with numerous footpaths currently used for recreational purposes by the local community. The proposed building will encompass almost 39,000m2 of floor area. A site plan is included in Appendix A.

3.3 Development Proposals The proposed development consists of the cancer centre and associated infrastructure including site main access, emergency access route, internal site roads, a new pedestrian access, a pedestrian linkage to Coryton railway station, vehicle parking, internal pedestrian routes and associated utilities infrastructure, public realm and landscaping.

Main Site Access Arrangement The main site access route would be provided from the north of the site via the existing roundabout on Longwood Drive and Coryton gyratory. To facilitate the development, it is proposed to upgrade the roundabout, the ASDA link and the link between the roundabout and the Coryton Interchange. A new access road will spur off from the upgraded ASDA access and cross the disused railway cutting to the north-west site boundary.

3.4 Emergency Access An emergency access would be delivered through northern boundary of the site via the Hollybush Estate using the existing highway that dissects Sycamore House and Poplar House. A single span bridge is proposed to enable the access to cross the railway cutting.

3.5 Pedestrian access An adopted highway (not currently used as a road) accesses the site at its most easterly point off Pendwyallt Road. This will be upgraded to provided pedestrian access. The new main site access route will include a pedestrian / cycle way. A new pedestrian route will also be created between the nVCC site and Coryton Railway station.

4 Sustainable Transport and Accessibility

4.1 Introduction The site is located close to a wide range of existing and proposed transport networks providing staff and visitors with sustainable transport links to and from the area. While these modes are suitable for staff and visitors, it is not expected that many patients will utilise such modes due to the nature of their illness. Increased use of alternative modes by Velindre staff will assist in reducing the impact for the development on the highway network.

This section sets out the existing public transport provision (bus and rail), public transport proposals, and the existing and proposed provision for walking and cycling. Section 5 covers the Velindre NHS Trust Travel Plan.

4.2 Public Transport

4.2.1 Bus Guidance from the Institutions of Highways and Transportation (Planning for Public Transport in Developments 1999) states a threshold of 400m as being generally considered to be the maximum distance acceptable to most people for walking to a bus stop. Furthermore, the document ‘Inclusive Mobility’ (A Guide to best practice on access to pedestrian and transport infrastructure DFT 2002) refers to research that indicates bus use by the elderly and the disabled reduces rapidly where distances to bus stops are more than 200m. Figure 2 illustrates the areas that fall within a 400m walking distance from the access points to the site and indicates that several bus stops are accessible within this distance. Stops concentrated around the Hollybush Inn on Park Road fall within this radius from the site’s eastern access point, with the other stops on Park Road falling slightly outside a 400m boundary. The stop located adjacent to ASDA will be within 400m of the site’s western access point.

Figure 2: Bus Stops near the proposed new Velindre site

Source: Background Mapping-Ordinance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2016

Figure 3 indicates the bus routes that operate within easy reach of the new site. Bus services 21 and 23 are operated by Cardiff Bus, services 26, 132, and 136 by Stagecoach South Wales and G1, 801 and 813 by New Adventure Travel (N.A.T.) with Table 42 outlining their daily service frequency.

Figure 3: Bus Routes

Source: Background Mapping-Ordinance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2016

Table 1: Bus Routes Along Park Rd / Pendwyallt Rd Route Route Detail Operator Mon-Fri Daytime Sat-Sun Daytime Frequency Frequency G1 Gwaelod-y-garth – Cardiff Gwaelod-y-garth – Cardiff New Adventure travel Cardiff – Gwaelod-y-garth 1 service per day Cardiff – Gwaelod-y-garth 21 Cardiff – Cardiff Lower ST Approximately every 20-25 Saturday approximately Mary St via Whitchurch Cardiff Bus minutes every 20-25 minutes

23 Cardiff – Cardiff Lower ST Approximately every 20-25 Saturday approximately Mary St via Whitchurch minutes every 20-25 minutes Cardiff Bus Sunday approximately ever 60 minutes 26 Blackwood – Cardiff Every 30 minutes Saturday every 30 minutes Sunday every 60 Minutes Stagecoach South Wales Cardiff – Blackwood Every 30 minutes Saturday every 30 minutes Sunday every 60 Minutes 132 Cardiff – Maerdy Approximately every 15 Saturday approximately minutes every 15 minutes Sunday Stagecoach South Wales every 30 minutes Maerdy – Cardiff Approximately every 15 Saturday approximately minutes every 15 minutes Sunday every 30 minutes 136 Cardiff – Creigau Dol-y- Every 60 minutes Saturday every 30 minutes Felin Stagecoach South Wales No Sunday Service Creigiau Dol-y-Felin– Every 60 minutes Saturday every 30 minutes Cardiff No Sunday Service 801 Fairwater – Llanishen 1 service per day Caerphilly Crossroads – 1 service per day No Sunday Service New Adventure Travel Bishop of Llandaff

Route Route Detail Operator Mon-Fri Daytime Sat-Sun Daytime Frequency Frequency 813 Llandaff North – Chartwell 1 service per day Drive New Adventure Travel No Sunday Service Chartwell Drive – Llandaff 1 service per day North Source: Published Time Tables 2016

Figure 4 shows the wider areas served by these bus routes, indicating that areas to the north via Taff’s Well and south to Cardiff city centre are better served than areas to the west and northeast of the site.

Figure 4: Wider Area Bus Routes

Source: TEMPro Interim v7.1 Background Mapping-Ordinance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2016

4.2.1.1 Summary Cardiff bus operates regular services from the local Whitchurch and Coryton area and provides good connections from Cardiff Central railway station which travel along Park Road and Pendwyallt Road as far as Pantmawr Road. For bus access from further afield Stagecoach operate routes from Blackwood along the Sirhowy and Rhymney Valley’s and from Maerdy in the Rhondda Valley to Cardiff with stops for both services on Pendwyallt Road. These services would allow staff, patients, and visitors to access the site along the planned pedestrian walk ways. There are no direct services for the wider South East Wales area covered by the nVCC.

4.2.2 Rail There are two rail lines running services to four local Rail stations within 3km of the nVCC site.

● Llandaff North Rail Station, located approximately 2km to the south of the site and serves those travelling from Barry and Penarth through the southern part of the Vale of Glamorgan operating a six services an hour to Pontypridd. From Pontypridd two trains in each hour continue on to Aberdare, two to Treherbert and two to Merthyr Tydfil. ● Taff’s Well Railway Station, located approximately 3 km to the north of the site and serves those travelling from the north on the Merthyr and Rhondda Valley lines. The station is served by bus routes 26 and 132, which connect to the new Velindre site via Pendwyallt Road and Park Road. ● Coryton Railway Station is located 300m east of the site. The station is served by two trains per hour from Cardiff Central station providing good links to the wider Rail network.

● Radyr Railway Station is located approximately 1.4 km to the southwest of the site and will be linked to the site via the Taff Trail and Longwood Drive West.

Figure 5: Rail Network Close to the Proposed Velindre Site

Source: Background Mapping-Ordinance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2016

4.2.3 Public Transport Proposals Velindre NHS Trust are keen to promote use of public transport and are in discussion with local operators on the provision of services into the proposed site.

The proposed upgraded walkways will Improved access to Coryton rail station. Drawing MMD- 361662-D-DR-00-XX-2006 show the proposed link.

4.3 South Wales Metro Proposals The South Wales Metro is a new transport system that will transform the way people travel around the Cardiff Capital Region. It will provide faster, more frequent and joined-up services using trains, buses and light rail. The proposed transport system will provide benefits to passengers, link communities together and help transform the economy. It is intended to have a positive social, economic and environmental effect, and will help to shape the region’s identity.

Metro Phase 1 is in progress, with the completed extension of the Ebbw Valley line to Ebbw Vale Town and with further capacity enhancements being delivered on the line to enable an increased service frequency. In addition, there are other station enhancements across the network already complete or in progress. The Metro Phase 1 improvements will increase the number of people who have rail as a realistic travel option for journeys to and from Cardiff.

Metro Phase 2 is anticipated to take place between 2017-2023, focusing on modernising the core Valley Lines and the wider South Wales rail network. This infrastructure work will be integrated with the programme to procure the next Wales and Borders franchise. This will result in a network that enables high-quality and reliable services which can deliver four vehicles per hour across the entire core Valley Lines network when needed, with reduced journey times, increased vehicle capacities, and the capacity for additional stations and network extensions.

Extending the railway line from Coryton past the proposed VCC is not planned within the current Metro proposals and would be outside the timescale covered by this transport assessment. Therefore, this is not considered further.

4.4 Active Travel The development of Cardiff’s walking and cycling network is promoted through the Cardiff Council ‘Keep Cardiff Moving’ Scheme which promotes active travel choices and supports the Cardiff Strategic Cycle Network Plan (2011) and the Walkable Neighbourhood Programme (2013).

The Cardiff Strategic Cycle Network Plan (now named Enfys Cardiff’s Cycle Network) was developed using information gathered in the 2009 consultation about cycling in Cardiff. The scheme identifies a main network of routes and the plan works to develop them across the city through colour-coded routes, signposting and a Cycle Design Guide.

It is accepted that, due to the nature of the illness suffered by the patients attending the nVCC, few patients are likely to walk or cycle to the site. However, the design will include adequate provision for staff and visitors by linking to the local pedestrian and cycle routes and providing cycle storage facilities on site.

4.4.1 Walking The area immediately to the east of the proposed hospital site is primarily residential, offering a safe and convenient walking environment, with the roads near the site providing footways and lighting with speed limits at or lower than 30 mph.

Pendwyallt Road and Park Road feature several pedestrian crossings. These crossings range from dropped curbs with central islands (shown in pink) to crossing lights (green) to zebra crossings (red) as shown in Figure 6, and help connect pedestrians to bus stops for services travelling in both directions.

The site is accessible via the footpath network surrounding the site. A Public Right of Way (PRoW) (reference: Whitchurch 12) follows the southwest boundary into the middle of the site where it becomes an informal route that enables pedestrians to walk through the site. This PRoW is connected to a series of other PRoW which provide access north to Longwood Drive and south into Longwood Nature Reserve (reference: Whitchurch 13 – 16). The site is also accessible from the meeting of the southwest and southeast boundaries by a PRoW (reference: Whitchurch 11). The PRoW does not enter the site but it connects to the informal route connecting to PRoW Whitchurch 12 and Forest Farm Road Located south of the site.

4.4.2 Cycling There are several cycling routes between the proposed site, city centre and railway stations, enhancing the choice of sustainable connections between different districts of Cardiff. The northern section of Park Road features a designated cycle lane while the nearby Taff Trail (National Cycle Route 8) provides a traffic-free route south to the City Centre and north towards Tongwynlais.

4.4.3 Planned Development Pedestrian / Cycle Routes The site is surrounded by a series of unpaved pedestrian footpaths, and footways and cycleways running along all the major roads. These routes will link into the facility via the adopted highway at the meeting of Park Road and Pendwyallt Road north of the Coryton railway bridge. The route is currently used as a footpath by local residents

A new pedestrian and cycle route would be created between the site and Coryton railway station under the road bridge, via the amenity grassland, then using the redundant railway cutting at the end of the grassed area nearest to the site and linking into the site via the existing adopted highway previously described.

The planned main access road will include a footway / cycleway from Longwood Drive into the hospital site.

To ensure pedestrian and cycle access routes are fit for purpose it is proposed to repair and refurnish the existing masonry arch bridge, resurface the route and provide sufficient levels of lighting. Once the route enters the site it would connect with the main site access and pedestrian and cycle routes and the footpath network that surrounds the site. Figure 6 below shows the existing pedestrian and cycle access and the proposed routes to join the routes with the new site.

Figure 6: Planned Pedestrian and Cycle Access Route

Source: Background Mapping-Ordinance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2016

A series of internal pedestrian routes would be provided within the site to connect the parking areas, the Velindre Cancer Centre, Maggie’s Centre and the Energy Centre. The routes would also interface with the footpath network previously described to ensure that walkers are able to pass through the site as they currently do. Where possible the routes will replicate the existing prominent pathways. Routes connecting the key main development components would be designed to professional standards, while the routes connecting to pedestrian routes surrounding the site would be more natural in appearance (soft finish) to reflect the existing character of the routes.

5 Travel Plan

Velindre NHS Trust encourage the use of sustainable modes by their staff. They have an existing Travel Plan and Travel Plan Coordinator and undertake annual staff travel to work surveys. The Travel Plan covers all their facilities, including Trust HQ, Velindre Cancer Care Centre, the Welsh Blood series and a number of subsidiary organisations associated with the services. This Plan will be updated by the Travel Plan Coordinator to cover the nVCC site.

The Travel Plan is supported by senior staff, with the Executive Directors having overall responsibility for ensuring that resources are available to meet the plan’s requirements.

The Trust is committed to making environmental improvements and to lessen the hospital’s impact on the environment. The Travel Plan fits in with the aspirations to promote sustainability, ease of access and healthy lifestyles for their staff.

A number of measures are promoted to reduce their staff’s reliance on private motor vehicles for both work related trips and their commute to and from work. These include:

● Providing information on accessible public transport modes for each of their locations; ● Salary sacrifice scheme for the purchase of annual public transport season tickets; ● Encouraging staff to use public transport where possible for attendance at meetings and conferences; ● Secure bike sheds / racks and showers for those who choose to cycle; ● Access to cycle-to-work scheme; ● Encouraging car-sharing for staff commutes with guarantied lifts home in an emergency; ● The introduction of Car parking permit scheme to control the number of staff permitted to park; ● Promoting running clubs; ● Promoting home working where possible. Staff have Microsoft Lync installed on their laptops which provide instant messaging, file sharing phone and video facilities for ad-hoc and scheduled meetings; ● Video conferencing facilities are provided to reduce the need to travel; ● The trust provides several pool cars for staff to use on operational business to reduce the need for personal vehicles to be brought on site; and ● Events aimed at encouraging staff to walk and cycle have been held at VCC - A Travel Road Show - Bike maintenance sessions - Practical cycle riding skills session - Lunch time walks

The Travel Plan contains established measures and targets, with a timetable of actions designed to measure the progress in achieving the set goals. This is undertaken on a quarterly basis.

For the Travel Plan to succeed the Trust recognises the need to engage with external organisations. As such, partnership working has been established with, Sustrans, Travel Line Cymru, Carshare2 Cardiff and the Welsh Government.

In anticipation of the construction of the nVCC the Trust is already engaging with local public transport operators to provide direct service access to the new hospital site and are investigating the possibility of providing discounts on travel for staff.

Velindre NHS Trust is committed to sharing results of the annual review with Local Authorities and work with them to resolve any issues which may arise with the Travel Plan.

The Travel Plan will be updated to reflect the new location of VCC and provide any additional information and deal with arising issues.

A copy of the present 2016 Travel Plan can be found in Appendix H. The process of updating the Travel Plan for 2017 is already underway with the annual staff survey presently being undertaken (February 2017).

6 Highway Improvements

6.1 Main site access route The development plans propose a main site access route from the north of the site via the existing roundabout on Longwood Drive. To facilitate the development, it is proposed to upgrade the roundabout, Longwood Drive between the roundabout and Coryton Interchange and the arm that currently serves the ASDA Supermarket site. A new access road would spur off from the upgraded ASDA access and cross the disused railway cutting and enter the main site area through the north- west boundary. The improvements to Longwood Drive aid the performance of the Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory traffic signals.

The access would provide for two way vehicle movement and within the site will include a shared pedestrian and cycle lane, which would interface with strategically located crossings to access ASDA and the wider pedestrian cycle network in the local area.

Coryton interchange is as part of the trunk road network and as such is the responsibility of Welsh Government. Longwood Drive east and west, including the roundabout is the responsibility of Cardiff Council. The ASDA arm and associated paths and verges is owned by ASDA.

All drawing appertaining to the existing situation and proposed alignment are shown in Appendix B.

6.1.1 Existing Alignment The existing Longwood Drive (east) eastbound carriageway running from Longwood Drive roundabout to the Coryton Gyratory is formed of a 5.5m wide lane which splits to form two further filter lanes approximately 80m from the signalised stop line. The carriageway width at the stop line is 13.8m. The lanes are configured with a traffic island giving one lane to the left and two lanes to the right.

The existing Longwood Drive (east) westbound entry is a 3.5m single lane from the Coryton gyratory slip road which splits into two lanes approximately 20m prior to the Longwood Drive roundabout with a stop line width of 6m.

The existing Longwood Drive roundabout is non-standard with a circulatory carriageway width of approximately 8.5m, an inscribed circle diameter of 23m, a traffic island of 7m diameter and 4 arms serving the petrol filling station to the north, the ASDA Supermarket to the south, Longwood Drive (east) and (west). There are two entry lanes to the roundabout and one exit lane from Longwood Drive (east) and (west). The petrol filling station and ASDA access arms are single lane entries and exits. The current non-compliances result in the roundabout operating in a less efficient manner with driver behaviour creating uncertainty at the roundabout.

6.1.2 Proposed Alignment To provide access to the development, the proposals include works to increase the capacity of the roundabout and consequently the junction of Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory. The improvements include:

● Stop line widths around the junction to be modified as follows: – Longwood Drive (west) widths increased to 4.3m northern lane, 3.5m southern lane (existing widths 3.5m). – Longwood Drive (east) - 7.6m northern lane (existing 3.7m), 5m southern lane (existing 3.6m) – ASDA Access entry - 6.6m (existing 6m).

● The roundabout Inscribed Circle Diameter (ICD) increased from 23m to 28m and the island has reduced from 3.5m to 2m radius. ● The Longwood Drive (west) westbound lane increased from approximately 3m to 3.5m. ● The existing Longwood Drive (east) eastbound exit is formed of a wide 5.5m lane which splits into 2 further lanes in approximately 35m. It is proposed to provide two exit lanes on the eastbound exit of 3.5m widths which splits into the existing three lanes approximately 80m from the junction. ● The existing Longwood Drive (east) westbound entry is formed of a 3.5m lane which splits into two lanes approximately 20m prior to the roundabout. It is proposed to maintain the existing lane at 3.5m width which will continue straight ahead and provide an additional left turn only lane of 3.5m width and 60m length to provide a dedicated left turn for access to ASDA and the proposed development. ● The proposed alterations to Longwood Drive (east) result in the carriageway levels being lowered between 0.5m and 2.0m and approximately 15m of grass verge being removed between Longwood Drive (east) and the ASDA access road. Subsequently the grass verge levels have been lowered to improve visibility and the ASDA access road has been lowered by approximately up to 0.5m. The above proposals will improve the circulatory flow of vehicles around the roundabout, and on the approaches. The expected land take for the arm realignment is approximately 700m2. The split per arm is given below: ● Longwood Drive (west) - 90m2 ● Longwood Drive (east) – 30m2 ● ASDA Access - 550m2 ● ASDA Access proposed footway/verge on existing carriageway - 80m2

6.1.3 Design Constraints The following constraints have restricted various aspects of the proposed roundabout design and Longwood Drive (east) carriageway alignment:

● The existing vertical alignment between Longwood Drive (east) and the ASDA HGV access road limits the amount of alteration that can be made. ● Adjacent landscape verges. ● Maintaining the position of the ASDA HGV delivery access road / store deliver point has restricted the road realignment. ● Ensuring that the proposed design ties into Longwood Drive alignment without significant alteration to existing road layout. ● Proximity of the petrol filling station to the existing roundabout arm. ● A high-pressure gas main which passes beneath the carriageway restrains major vertical alteration to the proposed levels. ● Longwood Drive (west) is constrained by the SSSI, Local Nature Reserve and deep cutting of the dis-used railway line (approx. 18m deep). ● The McDonalds restaurant has constrained any significant alterations to the southern arm of the proposed roundabout and/or Asda car park. ● The proximity of Coryton Gyratory significantly restricts the repositioning of junctions and road layouts.

6.1.4 ASDA Access - Articulated Vehicles For articulated Heavy Goods Vehicles (HGV’s), the southern arm access into ASDA will require significant widening. To inform the design Swept Path Analysis has been undertaken.

A 16.5m articulated vehicle has been successfully tracked from Longwood Drive (east) taking a left turn to the ASDA delivery point. It has also been tracked from the ASDA access to all the other arms, Longwood Drive (east) and (west) excluding the petrol filling station, which is to remain as existing. The drawings are shown in Appendix C.

6.1.5 Velindre Hospital Site Access Road The existing southern arm of the Longwood Drive roundabout provides access to the ASDA delivery access point and ASDA car parks. A new private road, is proposed at the south west corner of the existing ASDA car park continuing south into the nVCC site. The proposed road incorporates an elevated section of highway over the existing disused railway corridor.

The road width on the existing ASDA access varies between 5.5m – 6m. This will be widened to 6.5m.

The primary access bridge provides a continuation of the current ASDA access road, crossing the railway cutting at a high skew, thus creating a crossing with a total span of approximately 110m. This links from the south-west edge of ASDA’s car park to the Local Nature Reserve on the south side of the crossing. The bridge location allows an optimised highway alignment, minimising the number of curves in the road and maximising the length of existing road used, thus reducing the cost and environmental impacts of the road construction. Drawing showing the proposed alignment are given in Appendix C

Options were investigated to reduce the span of the crossing by either crossing the cutting at a squarer angle or by moving the crossing to the south end of ASDA’s car park where the cutting is not so wide. Cutting the crossing at a squarer angle was problematic due to the limited space between ASDA’s carpark and the cutting bank and minimum turning circles required for the highway design. Locating the bridge to the south of ASDA’s carpark was also deemed unfeasible as it would then intrude into the protected setting located around Ty Coryton and cause increased disruption to ASDA’s operation.

The bridge will be a 3 span, multi-girder, weathering steel bridge. The road carriageway will be 6.5m wide with a 3.5m pedestrian/cycle shared space on one side and a 0.6m wide verge on the other. Visualisations of the bridge structure can be seen below.

Figure 7: Proposed Main Access Bridge Figure 8: Proposed Main Access Bridge

Source: Mott Macdonald Source: Mott Macdonald

6.2 Emergency Access Emergency access through the current Whitchurch hospital site was discounted as any potential future development in the area would be out of Velindre’s control and the access would pass through a wildlife corridor to the south of the cancer centre’s site. Given this constraint, a new road which is to

serve as an emergency access road is proposed north of the proposed linking the nVCC Site to the Holybush Estate via a new bridge which is accessed from A4054 Pendwyalt Road.

Access to the bridge will be restricted by gates / other barriers which will only open in an emergency.

As the emergency access road does not provide normal access it is not required to meet the minimum standards for normal road widths. It is proposed that the bridge deck will have a single unmarked 5.5m wide carriageway with 0.6m wide verges on either side. This provides adequate carriageway width for emergency vehicles to pass each other on the structure. A 3D visualisation of the bridge can be seen below.

Figure 9: Proposed Emergency Access Bridge Design

Source: Mott Macdonald

Although only intended for emergency use the bridge is suitable for conveying buses into the site, which would allow future use of the route for bus access in line with the VNHS sustainable travel aims. Controls would remain in place to prevent non-bus / emergency traffic from accessing the site via the Hollybush Estate, thus minimising disruption to residents of the estate from traffic.

7 Traffic Data

7.1 Overview To inform the transport assessment several traffic surveys were undertaken in the vicinity of the current Velindre Hospital, along Velindre Road, Park Road and the proposed nVCC location on Longwood Drive and ASDA access road during:

● November 2015 ● March 2016, and ● June 2016 All the surveys were commissioned by Mott MacDonald and undertaken by Tracsis.

7.2 Survey Type Three types of traffic surveys were undertaken including:

● Junction Turning Counts (JTCs) – locations shown in Figure10; ● Automatic Traffic Counts (ATC) – locations shown in Figure 11; and ● Automatic number Plate Recognition (ANPR) – locations shown in Figure 12. ● MOVA signals data for the Longwood Drive arm of the Coryton Interchange was also obtained from Traffic Wales.

7.2.1 Junction Turning Counts (JTC)

7.2.1.1 November 2015 JTC and journey times were collected at seven sites on Thursday 26th November 2015 for the AM and PM peak hours only (0700-1000 and 1500-2030). Queue lengths were also collected for one site (Park Road roundabout) for the same time periods.

The seven surveyed site locations were:

● A4054 Park Road / Clos Coed Hir (priority T-junction); ● A4054 Park Road / Park Crescent / Whitchurch Hospital (left to right stagger); ● Park Road / Tyn-Y-pwll Road / Penlline Road / Kelston Road / Velindre Road (standard roundabout); ● Velindre Road / Velindre Hospital East Access (priority T-junction); ● Velindre Road / Heol Don (mini roundabout); ● Velindre Road / Velindre Hospital West Access (priority T-junction); and ● Velindre Road / Ty-Mawr Road (priority T-junction).

7.2.1.2 March 2016 JTC were collected at 1 site at the Pendwyallt Road / Pantmawr Road priority T-junction on Tuesday 15th March 2016 for the AM and PM peak hours only (0700-1000 and 1500-2030).

7.2.1.3 June and July 2016 JTC and queue lengths were collected at seven sites on Thursday 30th June, Saturday 2nd July and Sunday 3rd July 2016 for the AM and PM peak hours only (0700-1000 and 1500-2030).

The seven surveyed site locations were:

● Coryton Gyratory / Longwood Drive (3 arm signalised junction);

● ASDA / Longwood Drive / Petrol Station (standard roundabout); ● McDonalds access (priority T-junction); ● ASDA delivery access (priority T-junction); ● ASDA car park access north (priority T-junction); ● ASDA car park access south (priority T-junction); and ● Pendwyallt Road / Hollybush Estate access (priority T-junction).

Figure 10: Junction Turning Count Locations

Source: OS Data @ Crown Copyright and Database right 2016

7.2.2 Automatic Traffic Count (ATC)

7.2.2.1 November 2015 Automatic traffic counts (ATCs) were collected at two sites at Park Road and Velindre Road for one full week beginning Friday 27th November to Thursday 3rd December 2015 for 24 hour two way counts.

7.2.2.2 June / July 2016 ATCs were collected at one site on Longwood Drive at the eastern arm of the roundabout, (located between the ASDA roundabout and M4 Gyratory) for one full week beginning Thursday 30th June to Wednesday 6th July 2016 for 24 hour two-way counts

Figure 11: Automatic Traffic Count Locations

Source: OS Data @ Crown Copyright and Database right 2016

7.2.3 Automatic Number Plate Recognition (ANPR)

7.2.3.1 June / July 2016 ANPR origin-destination counts were collected at 2 sites at the Longwood Drive / ASDA roundabout and Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory 3 arm signalised junction on Thursday 30th June for the AM and PM peak hours only (0700-1000 and 1500-2030) and Saturday 2nd July for a total of 9 hours (0800-1700).

Figure 12: Automatic Number Plate Recognition Sites

Source: OS Data Crown Copyright and Database Right 2016

7.2.4 MOVA Data (Micro-Processed Vehicle Actuated)

7.2.4.1 October 2016 MOVA signals data was supplied by Traffic Wales for the Longwood Drive / Coryton Interchange traffic signals.

8 Base Traffic Flows

8.1 Junctions to be Assessed The junction assessment covers the two junctions listed below. These junctions have been identified as being potentially sensitive to an increase in vehicle movements associated with the nVCC.

● Site 1 Longwood Drive Roundabout ● Site 2 Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory signalised junction For reference Hollybush Estate / Pendwyallt Road junction has not been included in this assessment as there will be no increase in traffic flow generated by the development as the access is planned as emergency only and will gated at all other times.

8.2 Base Traffic Data Base traffic flow data for Longwood Drive Roundabout was based on the ATC and JTC collected in June/July 2016. The ATC data was collected for one full week (24 hours per day), while classified JTC data was collected between the hours of 07:00 and 10:00 to cover the AM peak period and 15:00 to 20:00 to cover PM peak period.

The base flows for the Longwood Drive / Coryton Interchange signalised junction were taken from the MOVA data supplied by Traffic Wales in October 2016.

Analysis of the traffic data established that the peak hours for the junctions are AM 08:00 – 09:00 and PM 16:30 – 17:30.

Existing 2016 AM and PM peak hour flows have been plotted on the local highway network and are shown in Appendix C.

9 Forecast Future Year Base Traffic Flows

The future year base traffic flows have been calculated for 2022 (opening year) and 2032 (design year). The flows represent the future situation without the nVCC. The flows are based on the 2016 base traffic flows with the following adjustments:

● Application of National Trip End Model Interim v7.1 trip end growth ● Consideration of Committed Developments. The resultant future year base traffic flows are shown in Appendix D.

9.1 Growth Factors Forecast traffic flows, representing background traffic volumes that will exist in the future (without the nVCC), have been calculated for 2022 (opening year) and 2032 (design year). The following uplifts have been applied to the existing (2016) base traffic flows:

● National Trip End Model (NTEM) Interim v7.1 trip end growth, combined with National Transport Model (NTM) 2015 traffic growth forecasts (using TEMPro 7.1); and

● WebTAG forecast income and fuel adjustment factors.

TEMPro 7.1 has been used to obtain traffic growth factors, based on NTEM Interim v7.1 for the Cardiff 010 area as shown in Figure 13 and the NTM 2015 traffic forecast dataset for an urban principal road. This was used as a worst-case traffic growth rate, producing higher growth for Cardiff 010 in comparison to Cardiff and South East Wales.

Figure 13: Location Area Cardiff 010 TEMPro Interim v7.1

Source: TEMPro Interim v7.1 Background Mapping-Ordinance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2016

WebTAG factors have then been used to adjust the TEMPro (Interim v7.1) growth factors for forecast fuel price and income changes between 2016 and the two future years (2022 and 2032). The resulting growth factors are shown in Table 2. For 2016 to 2022 traffic growth is approximately 12% over the

next five years. Growth factors for 2016 to 2032 show peak period traffic growth of approximately 30% over the next fifteen years.

Table 2: Growth factors Year Time Period TEMPro Factor Income Factor Applied Adjustment TEMPro 2016 - 2022 AM Peak 1.0951 1.021 1.1183 TEMPro 2016 - 2022 PM Peak 1.0955 1.021 1.1187 TEMPro 2016 - 2032 AM Peak 1.2220 1.063 1.2994 TEMPro 2016 - 2032 PM Peak 1.2205 1.063 1.2977 Source: TEMPro Interim v7.1

9.2 Committed Developments The only committed development in the vicinity of Longwood Drive is a Starbucks Coffee Shop located at the petrol filling station. The Transport Statement submitted as part of the planning application indicates no additional trips would be generated on the local highway network.

No other committed developments have been explicitly included in the future years flows as any future growth on the network is adequately accounted for through the application of the worst-case NTEM growth factor for Cardiff 010 to the base flows. The Cardiff 010 NTEM area includes the Whitchurch Hospital site and is deemed to cover the redevelopment of this site.

10 Forecast Development Trip Generation

The future year traffic flows with the nVCC have been calculated for 2022 (opening year) and 2032 (design year). The flows are based on the future year base traffic flows with allowances for the following:

● Removal of existing Velindre Hospital Trips ● Addition of forecast trips associated with the new Velindre Cancer Campus.

10.1 Trips Removed from Future Year Base Data

To remove double counting, trips associated with the existing Velindre Hospital, already on the network have been removed from the calculated future year base trips in the PM peak for the Coryton Gyratory / Longwood Drive Junction.

AM Peak trips arriving at Velindre via Coryton Gyratory would leave the gyratory prior to this junction and are therefore not in the Base data.

10.1.1 Patient Trips Removed The calculations for the number of patient trips removed from the future year base flows are based on the percentage of patients travelling from three health board areas: ABM UHB Bridgend; Anuerin Beven UHB; and CwmTaff UHB. It is assumed that those travelling from Cardiff and Vale will not access the current Velindre site via Coryton Gyratory and are therefore not already in the network in this location.

10.1.2 Staff trips Removed The number of staff trips removed from the future year base flows have been calculated using postcode information provided in the Travel to Work Survey 2016.

The total peak hour flows removed for both staff and patients are given in Table 3.

Table 3: Total Flow Removed from PM Peak Future Year Base Data Time Period 2022 2032 16:30 – 17:30 150 183

10.2 Development Trip Generation Forecast trips associated with the proposed development have been derived using information provided VNHST and by Healthcare Planners GE Finnamore on behalf of VNHST. The proposed development will generate an increase in traffic from staff, patient and deliveries arrival and departures.

Calculation of development trips covers the following:

● Staff ● Patients ● Other – in-patient visitors; hospital transport, delivery vehicles ● Maggie’s Centre The calculation methodology and assumptions are set out below.

Trip generation figures are given in Appendix E.

10.2.1 Documents The calculation of staff trips for the nVCC are based on the documentation listed below and from information provided by Operational Management at Velindre Hospital.

The main documents used to inform the staff trips calculations are;

● Summary / Workforce Activity and Capacity Spreadsheet (S/WACS) ● Staff Travel to Work Survey 2016 (STWS) ● Activity for Predicting Footfall (APT) Copies of these documents are provided in Appendix D.

10.2.2 Staff Trip Development

10.2.2.1 Staff Numbers The S/WACS gives total number of staff for three categories: staff; VCC staff to be located at the new site; and Other, assumed to be located elsewhere. Only staff identified as nVCC have been used in the calculations.

The numbers given in the S/WAC are shown as Whole Time Equivalents (WTE). To convert to actual staff numbers a factor of 1.14 was applied. This was derived from the full (0.86) and part time (0.14) workers percentage split given by VCC Operational Management.

Further information obtained from VCC Operational Services identified staff not included in the original figures provided in the S/WAC Spreadsheet. The staff groups identified relate to Trust Head Quarters, Transforming Cancer Services (TCS), Site management, maintenance, and security staff, all now expected to relocate to the new site. The staff numbers given for these categories are actual numbers therefore the WTE factor was not applied.

For the calculation of future year growth, the base year number was factored by the percentage growth of staff numbers provided in S/WAC for 2021 /2022 (9.98% of 2016 Base) and 2032 (17.03% of 2016 Base).

Table 3 shows the total number of staff expected to be employed on the proposed nVCC facility for Base year (2016) Opening year (2022) and Design year (2032).

Table 4: Total Staff Staff Information / Source Number of Staff / Year 2016 2022 2032 Summary / Workforce Capacity Spread Sheet 682.4 750.5 798.6 Actual Staff (1.14 Factor Applied) 777.94 855.57 910.40 Additional Staff Identified 110 122.30 130.47 Total Staff 887.94 977.87 1040.87

10.2.2.2 Staff Travel – Trip Rate Calculation To convert the total staff into forecasted trip rates, the following assumptions where applied.

● Assume 66% of staff are on duty at any one time. This is to account for shift patterns, annual leave, sick leave etc. ● 77% of staff on duty travel by car. This figure was derived from Velindre Travel to Work Survey 2016. The results are presented below in Table 5.

Table 5: Staff Commute by car % Trip Type Staff Numbers Percentage Actual Number of Staff Surveyed 230 100% Total – Travel by Car 177 77% Source: Velindre Staff Travel to work Survey 2016

The ‘travel by car’ percentage was applied to the total staff numbers to calculate the staff travel to work trips by car profile for the proposed development for Base, Opening and Design years.

Table 6: Staff Commute l By Car Staff 2016 Base 2022 2032 Total Staff 887.94 977.87 1040.87 66% on Duty 586.04 645.39 686.97 Factored by 77% 452 497 529 Source: Mott Macdonald

10.2.2.3 Staff Arrival and Departure Profile The staff arrival / departure profile is based on the percentages given in the Travel to Work Survey 2016 which asked for the time staff normally arrive and depart the Velindre Hospital site. The calculated percentages given in Table 7 were applied to the development staff totals for each modelled year.

Table 7: Staff Arrival and Departure Percentage Per Time period from Staff Travel to Work Survey Staff Arrival Time AM Staff No % / Per Time Period

7:00am to 7:29am 8 3.48%

7:30am to 7:59am 54 23.48%

8:00am to 8:29am 68 29.57%

8:30am to 8:59am 65 28.26%

9:00am to 9:29am 23 10.00%

9:30am to 10:00am 5 2.17%

Other (please specify) 7 3.04% Staff Departure Time PM Staff No % per Time Period

4:00pm to 4:29pm 37 16.09%

4:30pm to 4:59pm 36 15.65%

5:00pm to 5:29pm 73 31.74%

5:30pm to 5:59pm 21 9.13%

6:00pm to 6:29pm 21 9.13%

6:30pm to 7:00pm 7 3.04%

Other (please specify) 33 14.35%

Source: Velindre Travel to Work Survey 2016 The percentage of staff stating ‘Other’ as their arrival or departure time choice are assumed to arrive or depart in the inter-peak period and have been distributed accordingly.

To calculate an arrival and departure distribution profile the percentages given in Table 6 were applied to the staff numbers calculated for all 3 modelled years. 2016 (Base) 2022 (Opening) and 2032 (Design). The resulting profile is given in Table 8.

Table 8: Staff Arrival and Departure Profile Time Period 2016 2016 2022 2022 2032 2032 Arrival Departures Arrival Departures Arrival Departure 07:00 - 07:30 23.92 26.30 27.99 07:30 - 08:00 92.82 102.08 108.63 08:00 - 08:30 139.75 154.11 163.99 08:30 - 09:00 134.60 148.44 157.96 09:00 - 09:30 39.53 43.48 46.27 09:30 - 10:00 8.59 9.45 10.06 10:00 - 10:30 3.05 4.71 3.94 10:30 -11:00 2.36 2.76 3.68 11:00 - 11:30 11:30 - 12:00 12:00 - 12:30 12:30 - 13:00 6.61 5.75 6.44 13:00 - 13:30 8.13 9.15 10.16 13:30 - 14:00 8.13 9.15 10.16 14:00 - 14:30 8.13 9.15 10.16 15:00 - 15:30 8.13 9.15 10.16 15:30 - 16:00 3.05 3.81 3.86 16:00 - 16:30 63.60 69.95 74.43 16:30 - 17:00 61.88 68.06 72.42 17:00 - 17:30 148.35 163.57 174.05 17:30 - 18:00 58.97 65.26 69.45 18:00 - 18:30 36.10 39.70 42.24 18:30 - 19:00 12.03 13.23 14.08 19:00 - 19:30 8.13 8.13 8.41 19:30 - 20:00 7.94 8.52 7.11 20:00 - 20:30 10.16 11.18 11.89 Source: Mott MacDonald

10.2.3 Patients Trip Development The patient trip profile for the nVCC is based on the information given in the S/WACS provided by Health Care Planners G.E. Finnamore on behalf of Veindre NHS Trust and the APF provided by the Operational Services Velindre Hospital.

10.2.3.1 Total Annual Appointments The total number of possible annual appointments was derived by multiplying the capacity by the performance of each activity identified.

10.2.3.2 Total Daily Appointments The total possible annual appointments were factored to reflect the daily operation of each activity giving the total number of possible treatments / appointments per day using the following assumptions from the APF spreadsheet.

● Weeks of operation per year of each activity ranging from 48 to 52 per year; ● Days of operation per week for each activity ranging from 4 to 5 days per week; ● The hours of operation per day for each activity ranging from 7.5 to 12 hours per day; and ● Percentage utilisation for each activity ranging from 85% to 90%. The daily capacity / performance calculation for each activity for the base, opening and design years are shown in Tables 9 to 11.

Table 9: Capacity / performance calculation by activity 2016 (Base) Activity Capacity Performance Total Weeks of Patients Days of Patients Utilisation Patients Appointments Operation per Operation per Day per Day Week Factored

Ambulatory Care 3.8 888 3374.40 52.00 64.89 5.00 12.98 0.85 11.03 Imaging 3.1 5138 15927.80 52.00 306.30 5.00 61.26 0.90 55.13 Inpatient 43.6 6 261.60 52.10 5.02 7.00 0.72 0.85 0.61 Out Patients 23.4 3010 70434.00 52.00 1354.50 4.00 338.63 0.85 287.83 Radiotherapy 7.7 7118 54808.60 48.00 1123.13 5.00 224.63 0.87 195.42 Radiotherapy Non 0.1 4034 403.40 52.00 7.76 5.00 1.55 0.87 1.35 Linac Radiotherapy Prep 4.1 3393 13911.30 52.00 267.53 5.00 53.51 0.87 46.55 / Review SACT 15.9 884 14055.60 52.00 270.30 5.00 54.06 0.85 45.95 Total Appointments 173176.70 3399.43 747.32 643.88

Table 10: Capacity / performance calculation by activity 2022 (Opening) Activity Capacity Performance Total Weeks of Patients per Days of Patients per Utilisation Patients per Appointments Operation Week Operation Day Day Factored Ambulatory Care 3.7 944 3492.80 52.00 67.17 5.00 13.43 0.85 11.42 Imaging 4.5 4764 21438.00 52.00 412.27 5.00 82.45 0.90 74.21 Inpatient 43 5.6 240.80 52.10 4.62 7.00 0.66 0.85 0.56 Out Patients 29.7 2603 77309.10 52.00 1486.71 4.00 371.68 0.85 315.93 Radiotherapy 6.9 8328 57463.20 48.00 1177.52 5.00 235.50 0.87 204.89 Radiotherapy Non 0.1 4034 403.40 52.00 7.76 5.00 1.55 0.87 1.35 Linac Radiotherapy Prep 3.1 4298 13323.80 52.00 256.23 5.00 51.25 0.87 44.58 / Review SACT 10.3 1326 13657.80 52.00 262.65 5.00 52.53 0.85 44.65 Total 187328.90 3674.93 809.06 697.59 Appointments

Table 11: Capacity /Performance Calculation by Activity 2032 (Design) Activity Capacity Performance Total Weeks of Patients Days of Patients Utilisation Patients Appointments Operation per Week Operation per Day per Day Factored

Ambulatory 4.5 944 4248.00 52.00 77.61 5.00 15.52 0.85 13.19 care

Imaging 5.4 4764 25725.60 52.00 469.99 5.00 94.00 0.90 84.60

Inpatient 50.9 5.6 285.04 52.10 5.20 7.00 0.74 0.85 0.63

Out patients 31.7 2590 82103.00 52.00 1499.96 4.00 374.99 0.85 318.74

Activity Capacity Performance Total Weeks of Patients Days of Patients Utilisation Patients Appointments Operation per Week Operation per Day per Day Factored

Radiotherapy 8.4 8328 69955.20 48.00 1361.83 5.00 272.37 0.87 236.96

Radiotherapy 0.2 4034 806.80 52.00 14.74 5.00 2.95 0.87 2.56 Non Linacc

Radiotherapy 3.8 4298 16332.40 52.00 298.38 5.00 59.68 0.87 51.92 prep review

SACT 12.6 1326 16707.60 52.00 305.24 5.00 61.05 0.85 51.89

Total 216163.64 4032.94 881.29 760.50 appointments

10.2.3.3 Patient Arrival and Departure Profile The hospital daily appointments are between the hours of 08:00 and 18:00, therefore it is assumed that patients will start to arrive after 07:30 and leave after 18:00. With the exception of SACT department a flat profile of arrival and departures has been assumed. For SACT, VCC provided an average length of stay per appointment of 120 min, therefore the model assumes that these patients will not leave less than 2 hours after arrival. Patient arrival and departure profile for each modelled year is shown in table 12

Table 12: Patient Arrival / Departure Profile for each Modelled Year Time Period Arrival 2016 Departure Arrival 2022 Departure Arrival 2032 Departure 2016 2022 2032 Total Patients 612 663 761 07:00 - 07:30 07:30 - 08:00 10 10 13 08:00 - 08:30 13 13 16 08:30 - 09:00 38 10 41 10 47 13 09:00 - 09:30 38 10 41 10 47 13 09:30 - 10:00 38 35 41 39 47 44 10:00 - 10:30 38 43 41 47 47 54 10:30 - 11:00 38 35 41 39 47 44 11:00 - 11:30 38 35 41 39 47 44 11:30 - 12:00 38 35 41 39 47 44 12:00 - 12:30 38 43 41 47 47 54 12:30 - 13:00 38 35 41 39 47 44 13:00 - 13:30 38 35 41 39 47 44 13:30 - 14:00 38 35 41 39 47 44 14:00 - 14:30 38 43 41 47 47 54 14:30 - 15:00 38 35 41 39 47 44 15:00 - 15:30 38 35 41 39 47 44 15:30 - 16:00 38 35 41 39 47 44 16:00 - 16:30 10 35 10 39 13 44 16:30 - 17:00 10 35 10 39 13 44 17:00 - 17:30 18 18 22 17:30 - 18:00 10 10 13 18:00 - 18:30 10 10 13 18:30 - 19:00

Time Period Arrival 2016 Departure Arrival 2022 Departure Arrival 2032 Departure 2016 2022 2032 19:00 - 19:30 19:30 - 20:00 Source: Mott Macdonald

10.2.4 Other Vehicle Trips

10.2.4.1 In-Patient Visitors The nVCC is expected to have a maximum of 43 in-patient beds at opening in 2022. The following assumptions have been made in the calculation of patient visitor daily trips:

● Visiting times 14:00 and 16:00 and 18:00 and 20:00; ● Assume one visit / vehicle per patient per day; and ● Trips split evenly between the two visiting periods per day. ● Assumes 10% travel by public transport The model assumes afternoon visiting arrivals and evening arrivals and departures will be out of the main peak periods therefore only 17 PM departures in 2016 and 2022 and 20 in 2032 have been included in the development trips modelled.

10.2.4.2 Patient Hospital Transport The patient trips calculations assume 5% of patients will arrive / depart using hospital transport and an average of four patients per vehicle. This gives a provision of 8 two-way trips in the course of each day in the Base year 2016 rising to 11 in 2032. For robustness three arrivals have been modelled in the AM peak and three departures in the PM Peak.

Table 13: Patient Hospital Transport Calculation for Base, Opening and Design Years Calculation Assumptions 2016 Base 2022 2032 Total Annual Patient using Hospital Transport (5%) 8658.84 9366.45 10808.16 Patient per week Patients (52 weeks) 166.52 18.012 207.85 Patients per day , assume 5 days operation 33.30 36.02 41.57 Assume an average of 4 patients per vehicle 8.33 9.02 10.39 Source: Mott Macdonald

10.2.4.3 Delivery Vehicles Other Goods Vehicles (OGV’s) Velindre Operational Management provided information on the expected delivery profile and size of vehicles for OGV’s accessing the hospital. The modelled trip profile assumes an average flat arrival / departure profile between 08:00 and 16:00. For robustness two arrivals have been modelled in the AM peak period.

Future years OGV trips have been generated by factoring 2016 base by the percentage growth in patients for 2022 (7.55%) and 2032 (13.50%) given in the Summary / Workforce Activity /Capacity Spreadsheet.

Table 14: OGV Delivery Calculations Type of Delivery Storage Indicative Total VehicleTotal VehiclesTotal Vehicles Requirements Vehicle Size Per Week per Week Per Week 2016 2022 2032 Deliveries from National 2 – 4 times a OGV 2 4 4.30 4.88 Distribution week

Type of Delivery Storage Indicative Total VehicleTotal VehiclesTotal Vehicles Requirements Vehicle Size Per Week per Week Per Week 2016 2022 2032 Local Suppliers 10 – 15 per Largest Vehicle 15 16.13 18.31 Week 13.5 Tonne Ad hoc External Deliveries Allow 2-3 per Largest Vehicle 3 3.23 3.66 Week 13.5 Tonne Equipment Supplies Ad-hoc 1 per Largest Vehicle 5 5.38 6.10 Day 13.5 Tonne Third Party Deliveries Ad-Hoc 1 per Largest Vehicle 5 5.38 6.10 Day 13.5 Tonne Linen Deliveries 2 per Week 7.5 Tonne 2 2.15 2.44 Waste Collection 3 per Week 13.5 Tonne 3 3.23 3.66 Total Weekly OGV1 4 4.30 4.88 Total Weekly OGV 2 33 35.49 40.28 Total OGV 37 39.79 45.16 Source: Velindre Hospital Operation Management

Light Goods Vehicles (LGV’s) The delivery information provided by VCC shows 8 hospital related LGV’s deliveries per day but no information is available on adhoc LGV trips, therefore a nominal 2% of combined staff and patient trips has been added to the hospital LGV trips to give an estimated total LGVs per day shown in Table 15. A flat distribution profile over an 8-hour time between 08:00 and 16:00 has been assumed gives three arrivals and two departures in the AM peak and two departures in the PM peak period.

Table 15: LGV Vehicles Per Day Total Staff and Patients 2016 2022 2032 Staff and Patients 2016 1389.62 1518.28 1670.90 2% of Combined Staff Patient Numbers 27.79 30.37 33.42 Daily Hospital LGV deliveries 8 9.04 10.22 Total LGV per day 36 40 44 Source: Mott Macdonald

10.2.5 Maggie’s Centre A Maggie’s Centre is planned on land adjoining the hospital development offering support to Velindre patients. The previous planning application approved by Cardiff Council states that 10 parking spaces will be required, and that the majority of patients will already be on site to attend hospital appointments. Therefore limited additional trips would be expected. For robustness it is assumed the 10 spaces would be for staff arriving in the AM peak and leaving in the PM peak as information from other Maggie’s centres indicated the opening hours as 09:00 to 17:00 Monday to Friday.

10.3 Trip Distribution There is only one planned general vehicle access onto the nVCC site which is the main site access from Longwood Drive via Coryton Gyratory. For trip distribution purposes the direction travelled to Coryton has been aligned to the number of patients arriving from the different health board areas:

● Cardiff and Vale Health Board 20% ● ABM (Bridgend) Health Board 10% ● Cwm Taff Health Board 30% ● Anuerin Beven Health Board 40%

Therefore 40% arrive / depart M4 east, 10% M4 west (ABM Bridgend), 30% A470 north (Cwm Taff). It is assumed for modelling purposed that the remaining 20% are either on A470 south or A4045 (Cardiff and Vale).

To determine the effect of the development generated traffic on the local highway network, trips associated with the development are added to the forecast base flows presented previously in Section 7 and Appendix D for the base year 2016 and future years 2022 and 2032.

11 Junction Capacity Analysis

11.1 Background Junction capacity analysis has been undertaken for the main site access via Longwood Drive. The two junctions assessed are:

● Longwood Drive Roundabout. The existing junction is a non- standard four arm roundabout, with Longwood Drive (east) connecting to the Coryton Gyratory at the M4 Junction 32. This junction will provide access into the proposed site, with a through route proposed along the ASDA car park access road and south towards the development. ● Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory three arm signalised junction, that makes up the southwestern arm of the M4 Junction 32 Coryton Gyratory. This junction is located approximately 150m east of the Longwood Drive roundabout. The locations are shown in Figure 14 below.

Figure 14: Junction locations

Source: Background Mapping - © OpenStreetMap contributors 2016

11.1.1 Modelling Software Longwood Drive Roundabout was modelled in ARCADY, one of the components within TRL's industry-standard package ‘Junctions 9’ (version 9.0.1) for the modelling of roundabouts. This provides the assessment of the capacity and operation of a roundabout as a ratio of flow to capacity (RFC) and an estimate of maximum queue and delay. For roundabouts, a RFC of 0.85 or less

indicates the junction operates within desirable capacity. This allows for the standard error of prediction of the entry capacity by formula of + or -15% (DMRB vol. 6 TA 23/81). With a RFC between 0.85 and 1.00 a junction would be considered to operate within its theoretical capacity but will at times experience operational problems resulting in queues and delays. A RFC of greater than 1.00 indicates the junction is operate over maximum capacity and would become saturated resulting in queuing and delays.

It should be noted for the ARCADY results presented, the maximum queue, delay and RFC are the ‘worst’ values over the total time period modelled (90 minutes), and therefore it is possible that each of the values are taken from a different time segment (divided into 15-minute time segments). Furthermore, the use of lane allocation within the model means the RFC values are provided for the entry lanes only, taking the ‘worse case’ result for a single entry lane for the worst time segment. The queue and delay values stated in the tables are for all lanes of an arm (worst entry and approach lane queues / delays added together) for the worst time segment.

For Coryton Gyratory signalised junction LinSig (version 3.2.27.0) software has been used. Output from LinSig provides Degree of Saturation (DoS), delay and queue length as the primary measures of performance. For traffic signals a DoS of 90% or less indicates the junction operates within capacity. A DoS of 90% to 100% indicates the junction will at times experience operational problems resulting in queues and delays. A DoS of greater than 100% indicates the junction is operating over capacity.

11.1.2 Capacity Assessment Scenarios The junction capacity assessment has been undertaken for the current layout and proposed layout for both junctions in the following scenarios

● Base 2016 ● Base 2022 ● Base + Development 2022 ● Base 2032 ● Base + Developments 2032 In addition, sensitivity tests have been undertaken for Longwood Drive proposed roundabout for both plus 20% and 50% development traffic. The distribution of development traffic has been based on the percentage split of patients attending from the different Heath Board areas provided by Velindre NHS Trust.

11.2 Longwood Drive Roundabout

11.2.1 Longwood Drive Roundabout – Existing Lay-out The results for each scenario tested can be found below in Table 16 to Table 20, with full output reports available in Appendix F.

Table 16: ASDA / Longwood Drive Roundabout – Base 2016 AM AM AM PM PM PM Movement Queue Delay (sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 3 0.12 0 4 0.14 Longwood Drive (east) 1 6 0.33 1 8 0.49 ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.12 0 3 0.29 Longwood Drive (west) 0 6 0.09 1 9 0.34

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the base 2016 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

Table 17: Longwood Drive Roundabout –Base 2022 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 4 0.14 0 5 0.17

Longwood Drive (east) 1 7 0.39 2 9 0.54

ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.15 1 3 0.33

Longwood Drive (west) 0 7 0.11 1 10 0.38

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the base 2022 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

Table 18: Longwood Drive Roundabout Base + Developments 2022 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (Sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 4 0.14 0 6 0.21 Longwood Drive (east) 4 16 0.75 2 9 0.57 ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.16 1 5 0.56 Longwood Drive (west) 0 7 0.10 1 14 0.46

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the development 2022 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

Table 19: Longwood Drive Roundabout Base 2032 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (Sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 4 0.16 0 5 0.21

Longwood Drive (east) 2 8 0.44 2 11 0.63

ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.17 1 4 0.38

Longwood Drive (west) 0 7 0.12 1 12 0.47

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the base 2032 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

Table 20: ASDA / Longwood Drive Roundabout Base + Developments 2032 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (Sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 4 0.16 0 7 0.27

Longwood Drive (east) 9 26 0.86 3 12 0.67

ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.19 2 6 0.64

Longwood Drive (west) 0 7 0.12 2 21 0.58

The assessment results show the junction is operating just over the desirable capacity threshold in the AM peak and within desirable capacity in the PM peak for the development 2032 scenario. In the AM peak, Longwood Drive (east) presents the highest RFC value of 0.86 with queues and delays of 9 PCUs and 26 seconds respectively. In the PM peak, Longwood Drive east also presents the highest RFC value of 0.67, with queues and delays of 2 PCUs and 12 seconds respectively.

11.2.2 Longwood Drive Roundabout Modelling Results Revised Lay-out To accommodate; the future development traffic, the request from ASDA to have a dedicated left turn lane and Cardiff Council’s request for the upgrade of the present non-standard roundabout, an upgraded design has been tested. The upgrade includes an enlarged inscribed turning circle from

23m to 28m; increased lane widths on Longwood Drive east and west and an increase in the length of the nearside entry lane of Longwood Drive (east). The layout is shown in Appendix B. The results for each scenario tested can be found below in Table 21 and Table 22, with full output reports available in Appendix G.

Table 21: Longwood Drive Roundabout Revised Layout - Base + Developments 2022 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (Sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 3 0.13 0 6 0.19

Longwood Drive (east) 1 5 0.46 1 4 0.35

ASDA Superstore 0 2 0.14 1 4 0.48

Longwood Drive (west) 0 3 0.05 0 5 0.24

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the Base + development 2022 scenario.

Table 22: Longwood Drive Roundabout Revised Layout - Base + Developments 2032 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (Sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 3 0.14 0 7 0.23

Longwood Drive (east) 2 5 0.59 1 4 0.41

ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.15 1 6 0.59

Longwood Drive (west) 0 3 0.05 1 6 0.28

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the Base + development 2032 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

11.2.2.1 Sensitivity Testing The results presented above for the base and development scenarios, all illustrate the junction with the revised layout performing within desirable capacity for year 2032 (excluding the development) and 2032 with development scenario. Further sensitivity testing has been undertaken to identify the maximum increase in flows before the junction exceeds desirable capacity. This was tested under two additional scenarios, increasing the development flows by 20% and 50%.The results are shown in Tables 23 to 26.

Table 23: Longwood Drive Roundabout 20% Sensitivity Test Revised Layout Option 2022 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 3 0.14 0 6 0.21

Longwood Drive (east) 2 5 0.50 1 4 0.36

ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.14 1 4 0.52

Longwood Drive (west) 0 3 0.05 0 5 0.25

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the 20% sensitivity 2022 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

Table 24: Longwood Drive Roundabout 50%Ssensitivity Test Revised Layout Option 2022 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 3 0.14 0 7 0.23

Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Longwood Drive (east) 2 5 0.59 1 4 0.37

ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.15 2 5 0.59

Longwood Drive (west) 0 3 0.05 1 6 0.28

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in the AM peak and PM peak hours for the 50% sensitivity 2022 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85

Table 25: Longwood Drive Roundabout 20% Sensitivity Test Revised Layout Option 2032 Movement AM AM AM PM PM PM Queue Delay (sec) RFC Queue Delay (sec) RFC Petrol Station 0 4 0.16 0 7 0.42

Longwood Drive (east) 2 3 0.17 1 5 0.59

ASDA Superstore 0 3 0.17 1 5 0.59

Longwood Drive (west) 0 3 0.06 1 6 0.31

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the 20% sensitivity 2032 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

Table 26: Longwood Drive Roundabout 50% Sensitivity Test Revised Layout Option 2032 Moveme AM AM AM PM PM PM nt Queue Delay RFC Queue Delay RFC (sec) (sec) Petrol 0 4 0.16 0 8 0.31 Station

Longwood 2 7 0.65 1 14 0.43 Drive (east)

ASDA 0 3 0.18 2 6 0.66 Superstore

Longwood 0 3 0.06 1 7 0.36 Drive (west)

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the 50% sensitivity 2031 scenario, with RFC values under 0.85.

11.2.3 Summary Overall, the revised junction option assessment results show the junction operates within desirable capacity for all base, base + development scenarios and sensitivity tests for 2016, 2022 and 2032.

11.3 Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Junction Analysis The Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory signalised junction, base flows and base + development flows have been tested with and without the flow and stage timings for the depot arm to the north of the junction for the existing and proposed alignment. The depot arm is vehicle activated with very low flows and therefore does not run in every cycle. The results with the depot arm shows the worst-case situation. The results without the depot arm will be an underestimate of the capacity. The real level of performance will be somewhere between the two sets of figures depending on how often the stage for the deport is triggered in any time period.

The analysis covers the existing junction layout and an improved layout.

11.3.1 Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Existing Lay-out Results are presented for each scenario in Tables 27 to 36. The full output reports are provided in Appendix H.

Tables 26 and 27 show the performance of the junction for 2016 base flows. These show the existing junction operates satisfactorily.

Table 27: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Lay-out with depot - Base 2016 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 85.0% 18 86.8% 22

Longwood Drive 53.0% 3 83.6% 7

Depot Arm 13.7% 0 33.0% 1

The assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the base 2016 scenario, with DoS values under 90%.

Table 28: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Lay-out no depot - Base 2016 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 79% 15 81.4% 19 Longwood Drive 59.5% 3 77.6% 7

The results show the junction operating with in desirable capacity on all arms in 2016.

Table 29: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Lay-out with depot - Base 2022 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 93.0% 25 92.6% 30

Longwood Drive 57.9% 3 87.8% 11

Depot Arm 15.3% 0 45.8% 1

The results show the junction is operating within theoretical capacity in the AM and PM peak base 2022 scenario, with DoS values between 90-100% on the circulatory arm (93.0%) with a mean max queue of 25 and 30 PCUs respectively.

Table 30: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Layout no depot - Base 2022 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 86.6% 13 86.7% 27 Longwood Drive 65.1% 2 87.8% 10

The results show the junction operating with in desirable capacity on all arms in 2022.

Table 31: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Lay-out with depot - Base + Development 2022

Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 93.0% 25 98.3% 43 Longwood Drive 59.0% 3 93.8% 15 Depot Arm 15.3% 0 45.8% 1

The results show the junction is operating within theoretical capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the development 2022 scenario, with DoS values between 90-100%. In the AM peak, the circulatory arm presents the highest DoS value of 93.0%, with a mean max queue of 43 PCUs. In the PM peak both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive operate at theoretical capacity with results of 98.3% and 93.8% respectively.

Table 32: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Layout no depot - Base + Development 2022 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 86.%5 19 92.5% 36 Longwood Drive 66.3% 4 89.8% 13

With the development, the results show the junction operating with in desirable capacity on all arms in the 2022 AM peak. The 2022 PM peak is shown to operate within theoretical capacity on the Circulatory arm.

Tables 33 and 34 show the performance of the junction in 2032 without development. The ‘with development’ analysis is given in tables 35 and 36.

Table 33: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Lay-out with depot - Base 2032 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 87.8% 25 99.5% 56 Longwood Drive 83.0% 3 97.1% 18 Depot Arm 33.6% 0 56.0% 2

The results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in the AM peak (with DoS values under 90%). In the PM peak the analysis shows the junction operating just within theoretical capacity with both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive operating at theoretical capacity with results of 99.5% and 97.1% respectively.

Table 34: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Layout no depot - Base 2032 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 85.7% 33 93.3% 46 Longwood Drive 83% 8 93.6% 15

The results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity for the 2032 AM peak (with DoS values under 90%). The 2032 PM peak is shown to operate within theoretical capacity on both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive with results of 93.3% and 93.6% respectively.

The combined results given in Tables 32 and 33 indicate that in the PM peak the junction will operate with a DoS of between 93.3% and 99.5% for the circulatory arm and between 93.6% and 97.1% for Longwood Drive. This indicates that by 2032 without the development the junction will be operating with no spare capacity.

Table 35: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Existing Lay-out with depot - Base + Development 2032 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 87.3% 36 105.2% 83 Longwood Drive 84.5% 8 105.6% 55 Depot Arm 33.6% 1 56.0% 2

With the development, the assessment results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity in the AM peak (87.3%) with DoS values under 90 and over theoretical capacity of 100% in the 2032 PM peak for both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive showing with DoS values of 105.2% and 105.6% respectively.

Table 36: Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Existing Layout no depot - Base + Developments 2032 Movement AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU) Circulatory Arm 85.5% 33 106.0% 96 Longwood Drive 84.5% 8 106.2% 64

With the development, the results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity for the AM peak (with DoS values under 90%). The junction is operating above theoretical capacity on both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive in the PM peak with DoS values of 106% and 106.2% respectively. The queue of 96 and 64 are within the stacking capacity of the junction.

11.3.2 Junction Analysis Results Proposed Lay-out

The improvements to Longwood Drive (east) required for the Longwood Drive roundabout improvement provide an increase in capacity for the Longwood Drive / Coryton gyratory (See Section 6).

Results of the junction analysis for the opening years 2022 and design year 2032 with the proposed realignments on Longwood Drive in the with and without depot inputs are shown in Tables 37 to 40 below.

Table 37: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Proposed Layout with depot - Base + Development 2022 Arm AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU)

Circulatory Arm 93.0% 25 94.8% 37

Longwood Drive 34.7% 2 91.6% 14.5

Depot Arm 15.3% 0 45.8% 1

The results show the junction is operating within theoretical capacity in both the AM and PM peak hours for the development 2022 scenario, with DoS values between 90-100%. In the AM peak, the circulatory arm presents the highest DoS value of 93.0%, with a mean max queue of 37 PCUs. In the PM peak both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive operate at theoretical capacity with results of 94.3% and 91.6% respectively.

Table 38: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory Proposed Layout no depot - Base + Development 2022 Arm AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU)

Circulatory Arm 86.5% 19 89.6% 31

Longwood Drive 30.4% 1 89.2% 13

Without the Depot, the results show the junction operating within desirable capacity on all arms in 2022.

Comparing Tables 37 and 38 with Tables 29 and 30 shows the performance of the proposed layout in 2022 is only slightly worse than the existing layout with no development.

Table 39: Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Proposed Layout with depot - Base + Development 2032 Arm AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU)

Circulatory Arm 87.3% 25 103.6% 75

Longwood Drive 50.4% 2 100.3% 27

Depot Arm 33.6% 0 56.0% 2

With the development, the results show the junction is operating within desirable capacity for the AM peak (with DoS values under 90%). The junction is operating just above theoretical capacity on both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive in the PM peak with DoS values of 103.6% and 100.3% respectively. The queue of 75 and 27 are within the stacking capacity of the junction.

Table 40: Longwood Drive/Coryton Gyratory – Proposed Layout no depot - Base + Developments 2032 Arm AM DoS AM Queue (PCU) PM DoS PM Queue (PCU)

Circulatory Arm 85.5% 33 98.9% 52

Longwood Drive 84.5% 1 99.5% 13

Comparing Tables 39 and 40 with Tables 33 and 34 shows the performance of the proposed layout in 2032 is only slightly worse than the existing layout with no development.

11.3.3 Linsig Modelling Summary Table 40 below compares the DoS for the circulatory arm for all time periods and all the scenarios.

Table 41: Comparison of DoS for Circulatory Arm for all time periods and all scenarios Existing Junction Existing Junction Revised layout Base Base + Development Base + Development

2016 A With depot 85.0% M No depot 79.0%

2016 P With depot 86.8% M No depot 81.4%

2022 A With depot 93.0% 93.0% 93.0% M No depot 86.6% 86.5% 86.5%

2022 P With depot 92.6% 98.3% 94.8% M No depot 86.7% 92.5% 89.6%

2032 A With depot 87.8% 87.3% 87.3% M No depot 85.7% 85.5% 85.5%

2032 P With depot 99.5% 105.2% 103.6% M No depot 93.3% 106.0% 98.9%

Overall, the assessment results indicate that the junction with the existing layout operates within desirable capacity in the 2016 base scenario, with or without depot operation. By 2022 the junction is operating within theoretical capacity in the base and with development Scenarios. By 2032 the existing junction operates within desirable capacity in the AM peak in the base and with development scenarios. In the PM in the base scenario the existing junction operates at theoretical capacity, with the development it is operating over capacity. This shows that without the development the junction will start to experience capacity issues approaching 2032.

With the proposed Longwood Drive realignment, the junction modelling results are closer to the performance of the existing junction with the base flows only. The junction with the development will operate just within theoretical capacity in 2032 without depot signal operation with a DoS of 99.5% on Longwood Drive and 98.9% on the Circulatory arm. It operates over theoretical capacity in the PM peak with depot arm on both the circulatory arm and Longwood Drive with DoS of 103.6% and 100.3% respectably.

11.3.4 Further Investigation of Coryton Gyratory Results The results indicate the Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory junction is near or at capacity with or without the development by 2032. Further information on the gyratory operation has therefore been obtained to assess the accuracy of the LinSig modelling. Welsh Government provided the M4 Junction 32 Coryton Aimsun Microsimulation Model (October 2013) report used for the M4 Westbound to A470 North Dedicated Link work undertaken by Jacobs. The finding of the report are given below.

11.3.4.1 AIMSUN Model Comparison ● The AIMSUN Microsimulation Model was constructed by Ken Fox of Fox Traffic Simulation for Jacobs on behalf of Welsh Government, covering two peak hours: ○ AM Peak: 07:30-08:30 ○ PM Peak: 16:45-17:45 ● New data was collected and used to update the model in area of proposed new M4 / A470 link ○ Count Data: July to September 2012 (MIDAS data from Cardiff Council) ○ Queue Data: 11 to 13 December 2012 (Video footage) ● Data collected at 2 locations ○ M4 WB off slip ○ Looking across A470 to NB off slip. ● Report mentions previous work (reported 2010: TA/TW04/R07). ● There is no indication of base year of model or dates of original traffic data, but unless the model has been further updated since 2012 the data used for the majority of the model is at least 6 years old. ● While the assumption is that the model has been validated (has been accepted by WG/SWRTA) there is no direct evidence of this in this report. The model output shows model flows and volume/capacity (v/c) ratio on each model link. Table 39 below gives a comparison of traffic flows between Aimsun model and the current LINSIG model base 2016, at the Longwood Drive arm of the Coryton junction. Extracts from the Aimsun Report shown in Figures 15 and16 provide the volume and capacity levels for the whole junction in the AM and PM peak hours.

Table 42: Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Flow comparison Time Period Arm Aimsum Model Flows Linsig Model Flows (2013) (2016) AM Gyratory Inside lanes 456 395 AM Gyratory Outside 2522 2198 Lanes AM Longwood Drive 255 283 PM Gyratory Inside Arms 411 500 PM Gyratory Outside 2329 2222 Lanes PM Longwood Drive 662 732 Source: Aimsum Micro Simulation Report Ken Fox Traffic Simulation 2013.

A comparison of flows from the 2013 Aimsun model and the Mova data supplied by Traffic Wales October 2016 shows a good fit in the PM period with the total for the Gyratory lanes within 1%. The AM peak shows a traffic flows 14% lower in 2016 that predicated in the 2013 model.

The Longwood Drive flows for both AM and PM Peak period are showing a 10% increase between the 2013 and 2016 models. This may be due to the additional traffic using the petrol station after its takeover by ASDA from its former owner ESSO.

Figure 15: AIMSUN Outputs, COryton Gyratory – AM Peak

Source: Aimsun Micro Simulation Report Ken Fox Traffic Simulation 2013

Figure 16: AIMSUN Outputs, Coryton Gyratory– PM Peak

Source: Aimsun Micro Simulation Report Ken Fox Traffic Simulation 2013

The results of the modelling work shown in Figures 10 and 11, largely agree with the modelling work undertaken for the Velindre relocation, validating the capacity at between 60% and 80% at the Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory signals in the AM peak and between 80% and 100% capacity in the PM peak

12 Parking and Servicing

12.1 Introduction The nVCC will be designed with the needs of the patient at its core by providing a stress-free environment wherever possible. The National Cancer Institute Publication Psychological Stress and Cancer, highlights the way in which stress can directly affect cancer outcomes. For nVCC the provision of adequate car parking is a component of a stress-free environment.

This sections set out the results of the calculations undertaken to assess the daily motor vehicle parking requirements of staff and patients attending nVCC as well as staff for the Maggie’s centre, Trust HQ, TCS, conference centre, the project company’s daily management team and maintenance staff.

12.2 Car Parking Calculation approach The assessment of car parking supply for nVCC has taken account of several factors, including;

● Hospital location ● Daily attendance numbers (patients and staff) ● Availability of public transport ● Where patients come from (Home, Health board areas) ● Staff home location ● Length of appointment / Treatment times

From the information provided several assumptions have been made on the likelihood of patients and staff being able to access the hospital by public transport.

Since the hospital is a regional facility covering four health boards and considering the type of conditions treated it is accepted by Velindre Health Trust that most patients (95%) arrive by private motorised vehicle, the remaining 5% by hospital transport due to their home location.

From evidence in the Staff Travel to Work Survey (2016) undertaken by the current Velindre hospital staff, less than 20% of staff live in areas with direct public transport routes to the current site despite it being well-served by bus and rail services. This is expected to decrease further when services are transferred to the new site, as the public transport provision to the new site is worse than the existing site.

The location of the present Velindre hospital allows staff and patients to use on-street parking to supplement the on-site parking provision due to its location in a residential area. The opportunity for off-site parking at the new location is extremely limited and would cause major disruption to local businesses and inconvenience to local residents.

12.3 Policy Context

12.3.1 Planning Policy Parking Standard Cardiff Council’s parking standards are given in Error! Reference source not found..

Figure 17: Cardiff Council parking standards

Source: Cardiff Council Supplementary Planning Guidence, Access, Circulation and Parking Standards.

The nVCC does not fit into either the Hospital or Health Centre category due to the very specialised services it provides. Treatments are mainly delivered through outpatient appointments with a very limited number of in-patient beds. This position was accepted by Cardiff Council at our meeting of May 2016 where they stated ‘that any parking proposals would be look at favourably due to the unique nature of the development’.

12.3.2 Cardiff Local Development Plan 2006 – 2026 This document sets out Cardiff Council’s aspirations of achieving a 50 /50 mode split between journeys made by public and private transport. The policy is based on research undertaken by Sustrans and Socialdtd in Cardiff and Penarth in 2011. The results show that travel to work represents only 24% of all car trips and that most car trips are for other personal reasons, with a large proportion of those surveyed living within 3k of their destination.

For Velindre Cancer Hospital only 6% of staff have been identified as living within 3K of the new site and a further 7% of staff live between 3K and 5K, distances at which It would be possible to travel by sustainable modes. From the Staff Travel to Work Survey (2016) it has been identified that 47% staff live between 16k and 40K of the new location making travel by sustainable modes impossible and public transport difficult in many instances.

12.3.3 Policy – NHS Patient, Visitor, and Staff Car Parking Principles (October 2015) This policy gives the parking principals that NHS organisations should consider when formulating their parking policy, these include:

● Working with their patients and staff, local authorities, and public transport providers to make sure that users can get to the site (and park if necessary) as safely, conveniently, and economically as possible. ● Priority for staff parking should be based on need, eg staff whose daily duties require them to travel by car. ● NHS Trusts should publish their parking policy and their implementation of the NHS car parking principles, including financial information relating to their car parking and summarised complaint information and actions taken in response.

● Each NHS site is different and very few can provide spaces for everyone who needs one. Since 2010, national planning policy no longer imposes maximum parking standards on development, and no longer recommends the use of car parking charges as a demand management measure to discourage car use. With regards to the nVCC it is important to consider the needs of people with temporary disabilities as well as Blue Badge-holders due to the types of treatments offered. Consideration should also be given to staff including nurses or therapists who visit patients at home and staff requiring routine travel between hospital sites.

12.3.4 Health Bulletins – HTM 07 – 03 NHS Car Park Management The purpose of this guidance is to help NHS organisations identify best practice in car park management and sustainable transport to improve the patient and visitor experience and support staff on their journey to work. The guidance identifies how the NHS Patients, Visitors and Staff Car Parking Principles (above) can be implemented within an NHS organisations car parking provision, and measures that need to be considered when developing strategies and policies.

Consideration has been given to the guidance in this document but Velindre Cancer Hospital does not align to any of the categories or case studies highlighted due to the specialist services offered and the way the facility operates, therefore special consideration of its car parking provision is required.

12.4 Base Data The parking requirements have been determined from the staff and patient profiles calculated from base data provided by Velindre Cancer Care Trust, G E Finnamore Health Care Planners, and Velindre Hospital Operational Management. The following documents where used to calculate the arrival / departure profiles for the number of staff and patients on site at any one time:

● Summary /Workforce activity and capacity spread sheet (S/WAC) provided the number of staff employed and capacity and performance by treatment activity used to calculate expected patient numbers. ● Staff travel to work survey 2016 (STWS) provided the staff arrival / departure profile and current modal split which used to calculate the percentage of staff travelling by private motorised vehicle. ● Activity for Predicting footfall spreadsheet (APF) provided by Operational Services, Velindre Hospital. The information given on treatment times, utilisation and days of operation were used to refine the calculation of the number of patients expected to be treated by activity ● Information on Maggie’s Centre parking requirements was taken from the previous Planning Application submitted to Cardiff Council. ● TRICS database was used to calculate the car parking requirements for the planned Conference Centre / C4L

12.5 Methodology and Assumptions

12.5.1 Daily Attendance Staff and Patients As the nVCC will mainly operate as an outpatient facility with only minimal in-patient provision the main demands for car parking are expected to arise from patients attending their appointments and staff traveling to work. Visitors, the third major category for most hospitals are expected to be more ad-hoc and on business for nVCC rather than having a large influx of in-patient’s relatives at set times of day to account for.

The parking space requirements for patients and staff have been derived from the calculated development trips for the different user groups given in Section 9. The method of calculation and assumptions made are given below.

12.5.2 Staff The parking provision for staff is based on the calculated number of staff who travel by car for each assessed year given in Section 9. The trip rate calculation, as set out in Section 9, assumes 66% of staff will be on site at any one time of which 77% of staff on duty travel by car. This percentage was derived from the Velindre Travel to Work Survey 2016 giving a robust assumption to base the calculations on. The percentage split has been checked against staff postcode information and the availability of public transport as a realistic mode choice option.

12.5.3 Patients The daily patient numbers derived for the nVCC relocation are based on the documents provided by Health Care Planners G.E.Finnamore and Velindre Cancer Care Trust. Normally, out-patient appointments are of short duration but due to the unique treatment offered by the nVCC most of its patients receive their treatment as out-patients, therefore requiring longer appointment times than would normally be expected in other types of hospitals which creates above average demand for parking provision.

12.6 Parking Requirements – Motorised Vehicles

12.6.1 Staff To calculate the staff parking requirements the base numbers were taken from the staff arrival and departure profile (see Section 9, Table 7) minus the 39 staff relating to Trust HQ. These were removed from the base calculations to avoid double counting. An additional 65 spaces required for Trust HQ PPP contractors and Welsh Ambulance was then added. The final calculation gives a minimum staff parking requirement of 543 spaces in 2021/2 and 575 in 2031/2.

Table 43: Staff Parking Requirement Staff Parking 2021/ 2 Staff Parking 2031/2 Staff 478 Staff 510 Trust HQ 39 Trust HQ 39 PPP 20 PPP 20 Welsh Ambulance 6 Welsh Ambulance 6 Total Staff Parking Requirement 543 Total Staff Parking Requirement 575

12.6.2 Patients The requirement for patient parking has been calculated using the following assumptions:

● Patients will arrive at the hospital between the hours of 07.30 and 17:00 corresponding to the hours of operation for the activity they are attending; ● Average length of Visit to VCC be 120 minutes; and ● A flat distribution of arrival and departures has been assumed for the hours between 08:30 -16:00, arrivals prior to 08:30 are SACT patients only. Table 44 provides the patient parking requirement profile for the Base, Opening and Design years by hour.

Table 44: Car parking calculations for patients attending Velindre Cancer Centre Time 2016 2016 Car Park 2022 2022 Car Park 2032 2032 Car Park Period Arrivals Departures Req 2016 Arrivals Departures Req 2022 Arrivals Departures Req 2032

07:00 - 07:30 10.00 11.00 13.00 07:30 - 08:00 10.00 11.00 13.00 13.00 24.00 16.00 08:00 - 08:30 23.00 24.00 29.00 38.00 66.00 48.00 08:30 - 09:00 61.00 66.00 77.00

Time 2016 2016 Car Park 2022 2022 Car Park 2032 2032 Car Park Period Arrivals Departures Req 2016 Arrivals Departures Req 2022 Arrivals Departures Req 2032 38.00 108.00 47.09 09:00 - 09:30 99.00 108.00 125.00 38.00 10.00 11.00 139.00 47.09 13.00 09:30 - 10:00 127.00 139.00 159.00 38.00 13.00 13.00 168.00 47.09 16.00 10:00 - 10:30 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 48.00 10:30 -11:00 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 11:00 - 11:30 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 11:30 - 12:00 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 12:00 - 12:30 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 12:30 - 13:00 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 13:00 - 13:30 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 13:30 - 14:00 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 14:00 - 14:30 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 15:00 - 15:30 152.00 168.00 189.00 38.00 38.00 42.00 168.00 47.09 47.09 15:30 - 16:00 152.00 168.00 189.00 10.00 38.00 42.00 137.00 12.61 47.09 16:00 16:30 124.00 137.00 154.00 10.00 38.00 42.00 106.00 12.61 47.09 16:30 - 17:00 96.00 106.00 120.00 38.00 42.00 64.00 47.09 17:00 - 17:30 58.00 64.00 73.00 38.00 42.00 22.00 47.09 17:30 - 18:00 20.00 22.00 26.00 10.00 11.00 11.00 12.61 18:00 - 18:30 10.00 11.00 13.00 10.00 11.00 0.00 12.61 18:30 19:00 0.00 0.00 0.39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19:00 19:30 0.00 0.00 0.39 The calculations show an average number of patients requiring parking provision in the base year of 152 (2016), opening year 168 (2022) and design year of 189 (2032).

12.6.3 Additional Parking Requirements

12.6.3.1 Disabled Parking Provision Provision for disabled parking allocation is based on advice contained within the ‘Parking Guidelines of the Standing Conference on Regional Planning in South Wales’ (Revised Edition 1993) and the Department of Transport Traffic Advice Leaflet 5/95 ‘Parking for Disabled People’. This represents a minimum provision and should be provided in addition to the operational and non-operational car parking provision. Where the proportion of disabled people is known to be higher, the ratio of parking for the disabled may need to be increased. Furthermore, the needs of disabled people (including designated spaces) must be considered in developments where no off-street car parking is proposed.

The provision of disabled parking bays for VCC are calculated as per Cardiff Councils Parking requirements for Hospitals and Health Centres of with over 200 Bays (Figure 18) of 4 bays plus 4% of total capacity, this calculation give a disabled parking bay provision of 37 spaces 1n 2022 rising to 39 in 2032.

12.6.3.2 Two Wheeled Vehicles

Two wheeled motorised vehicles have been calculated as per Cardiff Councils Parking requirements for Hospitals and Health Centres which requirements a provision of between 1% and 5% of total

parking. This has been calculated for nVCC at a provision rate of 2.5% giving the number of spaces required by 2022 of 20 spaces and 21 by 2032.

12.6.3.3 Conference Centre / Centre for Learning A medical conference centre / C4L is to be included in the design. The calculation of the parking provision for this facility is based on the TRICS database Version 7.3.3. The analysis has been done using land-use category 7 – Leisure, Category 5 – Exhibition for Vehicles giving a more robust data set than for cars only.

The TRICS output gives a trip rate of 9.606 trips per day per 100sqm floor space. The size of the conference centre from the Schedule of Accommodation is 1126sqm. This equates to a daily two-way trip rate of 108. The trip profile shows a parking provision of 43 spaces required.

12.6.4 Maggie’s Centre Maggie’s Centre is a charity run facility to support cancer patients which will be located with the site but as a separate self-contained unit. Information from previous plans gives a parking requirement of 10 spaces in the base year rising to 12 in the design year 2031/32 allowing for growth at the same rate as nVCC.

12.6.5 Other nVCC Parking Requirements These calculations do not consider any provision for operational vehicles such as hospital transport, ambulances or delivery vehicles as a dedicated delivery yard and short stay ambulance drop off and pick up point will be provided in the hospital design.

For the small number of Estates vehicles, it is assumed they be in use during the day and accommodated in the under croft parking overnight.

12.6.6 Cycle Parking The cycle parking standards represent a minimum provision for all areas of Cardiff, which must be provided in addition to other vehicle parking. Short stay cycle parking provides for the needs of visitors or customers to a building for up to 5 hours, whilst long stay parking provides for the needs of residents, employees, and commuters for longer periods, for example, over 5 hours. Cycle parking must be provided in a safe, secure, and convenient position and be located close to the intended destinations. As the VCC is mainly an outpatient facility with only a small number of in-patient beds the number of required cycle parking spaces have been based on activity levels. Therefore, a minimum of 6 short stay and 6 long stay spaces should be provided.

12.7 Private Motorised Vehicle Parking Mitigation analysis There are several factors which can affect the way people travel and therefore the demand for parking, such as security concerns for shift workers, the need for staff to work between sites, lack of public transport, distance travelled, start/ finish times, type of treatment undertaken and time and length of appointments. Insufficient parking provision for the new hospital could cause serious congestion in the surrounding residential and business areas of Coryton, and parking on the access road into the hospital causing access issues for delivery vehicles, ambulance transport and emergency vehicles.

Further analysis was undertaken to examine the travel journey times of the Staff Travel to Work Survey (2016) respondents by both public transport and private car to the future site of Velindre Cancer Centre from home postcodes. These travel times aimed for an arrival time of 9:00 am to account of rush-hour traffic and peak time public transport services.

Google Maps was used to generate journey directions and times from reported home postcodes to Velindre Cancer Centre arriving by 9:00 am. Public transport journey times include walking time to/from bus and rail stations and waiting time throughout the journey to provide a complete door-to-

door journey time. Driving journey times were often impacted by variations in congestion and in cases of large variation a range of potential journey times were included. The results show the percentage of journeys with less than a 30-minute difference in time between public transport and car accounts for 28.3% of all journeys, indicating that the remaining 68% of staff would have public transport journeys, more than 30 minutes longer than travelling by private motor vehicle

A second sensitivity analysis was undertaken to measure the difference in journey times if dedicated hospital transport was provided from Taff’s Well rail station to the nVCC. From the reported postcodes and using the same methodology to calculate journey times. This analysis saw a substantial proportional reduction in rail-based public transport journey times of between 5 and 51 mins for 70% of locations analysed, although in most cases this is still longer than the respective car journey it may be enough to encourage some modal shift for a proportion of travellers to nVCC. One potential negative impact of providing dedicated transport from Taffs Well was a small reduction in car journey times for some users who may be tempted to use the car park as a park-and-ride bus site causing congestion for rail users

12.8 Total Parking Requirements – Motorised Vehicles The results indicate a total minimum car parking space requirement of 841 in the opening year 2022 and 879 in design year 2032. A breakdown of the calculated parking requirements for different user groups are given in Table 45. These numbers include the requirement for all patients, staff, disabled provision, two-wheeled vehicles, conference centre / C4L, visitors and the Maggie’s Centre.

Table 45: Parking Space Requirement Parking 2016 Base 2022 2032 Patients 152 168 189 Staff 497 562 575 Disabled Bays 33 37 39 Conference Centre 43 43 43 Two-wheeled 18 20 21 Maggie’s Centre 10 11 12 Total parking Spaces 763 841 879

12.9 Emergency and Service Vehicles

12.9.1 Emergency Velindre Cancer Care Centre would not receive Blue Light traffic on a regular basis, only when emergencies require it. An emergency waiting area would be provided for these vehicles adjacent to the main building. Other Patient Hospital Transport (PHT) will drop off and pick up at a designated location provided for in the design. These vehicles do not remain on site for any length of time once passengers have alighted.

12.9.2 Service Vehicles Service vehicles will be accommodated in a designated service delivery yard adjacent to the cancer centre, all delivery vehicles to the site will enter this space. This provision will be in addition to the required car parking spaces previously identified.

Proposals will require works to realign and widen the entry and exit lanes of the roundabout and increased lane lengths and road realignment of the adjoining highway to improve capacity and movements around the junction.

13 Construction

13.1 Introduction The nVCC has an anticipated opening date of Q2 2022. Construction of the hospital is programmed to take approximately 2.5 years with construction starting in Q3 2019.

The construction period for the enabling works is scheduled to begin in Q4 2017 with the commencement of work on the roundabout and northern access route which provides the crossing over the dis-used railway corridor which are anticipated to be completed in Q2 2019.

It is anticipated that the enabling and nVCC works will be procured separately.

The primary access route for the construction of both the enabling works and nVCC is through the ASDA Access Road (off Longwood Drive), with a low number of vehicles accessing from the south during construction of the bridge (as detailed below in section 12.3 Construction Routes).

Due to a proportion of construction traffic traversing the ASDA Access Road, the development of the construction strategy has included discussion with ASDA and their engineering consultants Sanderson Associates to identify the constraints and opportunities. The primary concern of ASDA and McDonald’s is to minimise the disruption experienced by customers, thereby reducing disruption on the adjacent road network. Physical constraints of the site and constraints to the timeline of works due to fluctuations in customer demand throughout the week and year have been identified and measures to mitigate impacts have been devised.

13.2 Construction management plan Bidders will be required to provide a Construction Management Plan (CMP) setting out their method statement detailing a construction programme and clearly demonstrating (via a Construction Traffic Plan) how vehicle movements will be managed to meet programme constraints, minimise disruption and operate safely. The plan will also be expected to detail provision of minibus/coach transport for construction personnel to the site to minimise impact on the surrounding road network. It will also be made clear to contractors that construction and delivery vehicle movements off site are to be routed via the trunk road network and not the minor residential streets in the surrounding area. This will primarily be the A470 and M4 motorway – acknowledging that a small number of vehicles will enter via the south during the bridge construction only.

Appropriate tender evaluation criteria will be put in place to allow the Trust to evaluate bidder’s proposals and bidders will be expected to engage with Velindre Trust during the procurement process of both the enabling works and nVCC.

13.3 Construction Routes The proposed Longwood Drive modifications will be accessed via Longwood Drive and will extend to the adjacent ASDA Access Road.

For construction of the proposed bridge (primary and secondary), two primary routes are considered:

● The existing ASDA Access Road with; ● Temporary access from the south either via the floor of the railway cutting and/or via the existing Whitchurch Hospital site, Park Road and Hollybush Estate, for limited heavy plant vehicles and associated deliveries. This is required to facilitate excavation, piling / foundation construction within the cutting and to allow access to the main site to construction the southern bridge abutments.

For the construction of nVCC the primary construction route is via:

● The existing Asda Road, which will become nVCC’s permanent access route

Figure 18: Construction Access Road Locations

Source: Background Mapping-Ordinance Survey data Crown copyright and database right 2016

The enabling works include construction of the improvements to Longwood Drive roundabout, ASDA Access Road, construction of the crossing over the dis-used Railway Crossing (adjacent to ASDA) and the secondary emergency access vehicle bridge through the Hollybush Estate.

The Longwood roundabout works are proposed to commence in Q4 2017, followed by upgrades to the Asda Road and construction of the crossings due to complete Q2 2019.

13.4 Longwood Drive Roundabout For the Longwood Drive roundabout works a site compound is envisaged in the ASDA car park, the exact size and position are subject to agreement. A half-lane closure on the ASDA store delivery road (on the northern side of the site), is to provide a lay-down area for site deliveries is proposed on the ASDA HGV access road.

An average of 5-6 HGVs per day are envisaged during the roundabout improvement works, typically deliveries will be less than this number. The maximum number of construction HGV deliveries during a single day shall be limited to 20 for the bridge construction element of the works but it is anticipated that deliveries will generally be less than this.

The deliveries are proposed to be outside of ASDA’s main day trading periods, including;

● Thursday & Friday – 16:00 to 20:00 ● Saturday – 09:00 to 21:00 ● Sunday –– 10:00 to 16:00 The works will be small scale in terms of the number of plant on site and deliveries of concrete, asphalt and stone. The works will require appropriate level of traffic management and temporary / task lighting. Works to the embankment will seek to minimise export of material off site.

It is anticipated that there will be less than 20 site workers on site during this phase of the enabling works.

Works which require adjustments/introduction of temporary traffic management will be undertaken overnight where possible to minimise disruption, both during the week and weekend. There will be a restriction on working (type of works and duration) during seasonal peak traffic periods, such as Christmas, Easter and Bank Holidays to reduce disruption.

13.5 Bridge Crossings The works include the construction of a bridge over the railway cutting along the northern edge of the site to connect the ASDA Access Road with the nVCC site. A secondary emergency access single span bridge is proposed linking to the Hollybush Estate.

The primary access for 3 span bridge will be via the ASDA Access Road for the northern abutment and construction of the central piers and southern abutment may be accessed via a temporary route to the south of the site. This would reduce the number of heavy goods/ construction vehicles that would need to use the ASDA Access Road and on the adjacent road network. The bridge would be formed of pre-fabricated elements which will be subject to ‘Special Wide Load’ requirements and be delivered to site outside of key times of day and year.

Bridge construction is scheduled from approximately Q2 2018 until Q3 2019.

It is anticipated that the maximum daily HGV deliveries will be limited to 20 per day.

The secondary emergency access bridge will be constructed via the Hollybush Estate Road and also from the south. The works are programmed to occur in parallel to the main bridge via the ASDA Access Road.

Site workers, on average, are anticipated to be 30 in number.

13.5.1 Southern access route for Bridge Works A potential route from the south will be via the floor of the railway cutting and/or via the proposed nVCC site, along the route of the permanent works, from the current site of the Whitchurch Hospital or Park Road, and would provide access for limited heavy plant vehicles and deliveries, for construction only. This route would provide access for the construction of the bridge spanning the railway cutting. Deliveries along this route will amount to no more than 20 per day for short periods and will be reduced to 2-3 per day thereafter. These routes would be in place for approximately 6 to 9 months with minimal utilisation as plant once delivered would remain in the site compound,

13.6 Main site development – Construction of nVCC Construction of the new Velindre Cancer Centre is scheduled between Q3 2019 and Q2 2022. These works will commence upon completion of the enabling works (Longwood Drive Roundabout and Bridges). The construction compound will be located within the proposed nVCC development site and will include parking for staff and laydown areas as required by the contractor.

Site worker access (personal transport to / from site) will be limited as far as possible by employing measures such as lift sharing, park and ride (shuttle bus) and encouraging cycling or other sustainable forms of transport. The appointed contractor will be expected to provide a Construction Management Plan which will include a construction travel plan setting out how the contractor will minimise the impact of construction vehicles and staff vehicles during the development works. A typical maximum of site workers, during peak period of the fit-out stage will be approximately 500 workers. For the majority of the build phases the site workforce is envisaged to be less than 100 workers per day.

The primary construction access route for the site will be via the ASDA Access Road for both heavy and light class vehicles. HGV construction vehicles are likely to be less than an annualised average value of 100 deliveries per day (a typical value from a similar development at the NHS Dumfries & Galloway Garroch Loaning Acute Hospital). There may be instances where this figure is exceeded on a specific daily basis.

14 Collision Analysis

14.1 Collision Data Collision data for the latest five-year period to date has been obtained from South Wales Police, through the ‘Freedom of Information Request 1057/16’. The latest data available is between 01/01/2011 to 31/10/2016.

Collision data was requested for the following areas:

● Longwood Drive, Coryton; ● A4054, Coryton (Coryton Gyratory to Whitchurch); and ● M4 J32, Coryton (Coryton Gyratory South Side). This is illustrated below in Figure 19, showing the requested area for interrogation, located within the red area as shown on the map.

Figure 19: Collison data site area

Source: South Wales Police, 2016

In the response from the South Wales Police (21 November 2016) it states the data was obtained using the following searches:

● All occurrences on the Crime and Incident Recording System (Niche Record Management System) with a Personal Injury Road Traffic Collision statistic form; and ● A search of Niche occurrences within beat 5102, where the occurrence type includes Traffic Related (TR) and contains damage incidents, Road Traffic Collision (RTC) or accident.

It should be noted that officers do not attend every RTC, and where this is the case, a precise location may not be available and generic map points are used to indicate the vicinity of the RTC. A total of three points were identified within the requested area, as shown above in Figure 19, accounting for approximately 85 of the collision records provided.

14.2 Collision Summary Analysis Across the requested area, a total of 136 collisions were reported in the five-year period. Of these, 93 were classified as damage only, 2 as injury, 37 as slight, 3 as serious and 1 as a fatal incident occurring across this time period.

A summary of the collision data by severity type (per requested area and as an overall total) is shown below in Tables 46 to 49.

Table 46: Collision data Longwood Drive, Coryton Year Damage Only Injury Slight Serious Fatal Total 2011 1 0 1 0 0 2 2012 1 0 0 0 0 1 2013 1 0 0 0 0 1 2014 2 0 0 0 0 2 2015 1 0 2 0 0 3 2016 3 0 1 0 0 4 Total 9 0 4 0 0 13 Source: South Wales Police, 2016

For the area requested at Longwood Drive, a total of 13 incidents were recorded over the total five- year period, with 9 damage only and 4 slight incidents occurring between 2011 to 2016. No further collision incidents were recorded at this location.

Table 47: Collision data A4054, Coryton (Coryton Gyratory to Whitchurch) Year Damage Only Injury Slight Serious Fatal Total 2011 0 1 0 0 0 1 2012 8 0 2 0 0 10 2013 4 0 1 0 0 5 2014 5 0 2 1 0 8 2015 4 0 7 0 1 12 2016 2 0 1 0 0 3 Total 23 1 13 1 1 39 Source: South Wales Police, 2016

For the area requested at the A4054 (from Coryton Gyratory to Whitchurch), a total of 39 incidents were recorded over the total five-year period, with 23 damage only, 1 injury, 13 slight, 1 serious, and 1 fatal incident occurring between 2011 to 2016. This equates as damage only contributing to 59% of all incidents at this area, slight as 33% and the reaming as 3% each, including the fatal incident that occurred in 2015.

Table 48: Collision data M4 J32, Coryton (Coryton Gyratory South Side) Year Damage Only Injury Slight Serious Fatal Total 2011 3 0 0 0 0 3 2012 10 1 3 0 0 14 2013 5 0 3 1 0 9

Year Damage Only Injury Slight Serious Fatal Total 2014 25 0 3 1 0 29 2015 13 0 6 0 0 19 2016 5 0 5 0 0 10 Total 61 1 20 2 0 84 Source: South Wales Police, 2016

For the area requested at the M4 J32 (at the Coryton Gyratory south side), a total of 84 incidents were recorded over the total five-year period, with 61 damage only, 1 injury, 20 slight and 2 serious incidents occurring between 2011 to 2016. This equates as damage only contributing to 73% of all incidents at this area, slight as 24%, serious as 2% and injury as 1%. There were no fatal incidents recorded at this location.

Table 49: Collision data total Year Damage Only Injury Slight Serious Fatal Total 2011 4 1 1 0 0 6 2012 19 1 5 0 0 25 2013 10 0 4 1 0 15 2014 32 0 5 2 0 39 2015 18 0 15 0 1 34 2016 10 0 7 0 0 17 Total 93 2 37 3 1 136 Source: South Wales Police, 2016

For the total combined area requested (as detailed in Table 49 above), a total of 136 incidents were recorded over the total five-year period, with 93 damage only, 2 injury, 37 slight 3 serious and 1 fatal incident occurring between 2011 to 2016. This equates as damage only contributing to 68% of all incidents at this area, slight as 27%, serious as 3% and injury and fatal as 1% each.

14.3 Summary The area located within the immediate vicinity of the proposed site access on Longwood Drive presents minimal concern with regards to collision data results, with 9 damage only and 4 slight incidents across the total latest 5-year period, with no injury, serious or fatal incidents recorded at the requested site. Any increase in traffic flow t from the nVCC would not be expected to adversely affect the accident rates in the area.

15 Conclusion

This Transport Assessment has been prepared by Mott MacDonald on behalf of Velindre NHS Trust, in support of the planning submission for a new Velindre Cancer Centre in north Cardiff. The proposed new facility will provide a regional cancer centre for South East Wales covering the Cwm Taf, Cardiff and Vale, Anuerin Bevan and Abertawe Bro Morgannwg (ABM) (Bridgend) health boards. The work has been undertaken in line with national, regional and local transport policy, current health policy guidance and the Active Travel (Wales) Act 2013 and in consultation with the Welsh Government and Cardiff Council.

The site location benefits from excellent transport infrastructure with:

● Easy access from the local and trunk road network; ● Pedestrians are able to access the site via a network of existing and improved walking routes; ● Cyclists will be able to access the site via the national cycle route network which runs adjacent to the site and the proposed links into the site. Suitable cycle storage and facilities will be provided to encourage sustainable mode usage; and ● Good bus and rail service provision within 400m of the site and the potential to have bus stops located within the hospital grounds.

15.1 Capacity analysis Capacity analysis has been undertaken for; Longwood Drive Roundabout and Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory Signalised Junction. Improvements are proposed to the Longwood Drive roundabout and Longwood Drive between the roundabout and Coryton gyratory to improve the capacity of both junctions.

Capacity analysis is based on:

● Base data obtained from a traffic survey programme undertaken in 2015 and 2016. MOVA data supplied by Traffic Wales was used to provide base calculations for Coryton Gyratory Signalised Junction assessment. ● Future Year base data has been generated by factoring the 2016 base data by factors obtained from TEMPro Interim V7.1 for opening and design years 2022 and 2032. ● Development trip calculations used data supplied by VNHS Trust and Velindre Hospital Operations management on expected numbers of staff, patients and deliveries to be on site for each assessed year. ● Development generated patient trips have been distributed as per the percentage of patients attending from each of the four health boards served by the facility. Staff trip distribution has been taken from postcode data provided in the Staff travel to Work Survey 2016.

The junction analysis results indicate that the existing Longwood Drive Roundabout layout would operate well within desirable capacity for 2022, but above desirable capacity with the nVCC development in place by 2032.

For the proposed redesigned junction the results indicate that the junction would operate well within desired capacity for all scenarios both in the AM and PM peak period. Considering the results

sensitivity tests were undertaken at both +20% and +50% development traffic. The results showed the roundabout would still operate well within capacity with additional development growth.

The analysis of Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory signalised junction indicates that it will operate just within theoretical capacity in 2022 and above theoretical capacity with or without the development by 2032.

These findings were unexpected and therefore further investigation was undertaken into the gyratory’s operation. The Aimsun model report provided to the Welsh Government in support of works undertaken on the Gyratory in 2013 was interrogated. This verified the LinSig model findings, showing the Longwood Drive / Coryton Gyratory signalised junction operating at between 80% and 100% capacity by 2016.

15.2 Sustainable modes Sustainable transport and active travel was considered in line with the requirements of the Active Travel (Wales) Act (2013) and Cardiff Council’s Local Transport Plan (2015 – 2020). The proposals look to enhance access by bus, rail, walking and cycling. The proposals include new pedestrian routes to Coryton railway Station, and new and improved pedestrian and cycling access to the site and within the site. The VNHS Trust is currently in talks with local bus operators to provide services directly into the site.

The Velindre travel plan will be updated for the new hospital location.

15.3 Conclusion The Transport Assessment shows the site is ideally situated for the needs of a regional Cancer Centre with good vehicular access via the road network and sustainable transport infrastructure. The infrastructure improvements included as part of the proposals enhance the accessibility of the site.

It is concluded that there is no highway and transport reason the development should not proceed.

Appendices

A. Site Plan 67 B. Highways Alignment Drawings 68 C. Flow Diagrams 69 D. Supporting Documents 70 E. Development Trips 71 F. ARCADY Results 72 G. LINSIG Results 73 H. Travel Plan 74

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