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Greaves Cotton (GREAVE) Rating : Buy

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Greaves Cotton (GREAVE) Rating : Buy Initiating Coverage June 6, 2013 Rating Matrix Greaves Cotton (GREAVE) Rating : Buy Target : | 86 | 68 Target Period : 12-18 months Steady and dominating play… Potential Upside : 26% Greaves Cotton (GCL) is a dominant player in supplying engines to the three wheeler (3W) auto industry, especially the 3W goods segment where YoY Growth (%) it commands 80-90% share. Strong technology, optimum capacities and (YoY Growth) FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E low turnaround time (in developing new engines vis-à-vis industry) have Net Sales 39.9 6.7 13.4 10.1 EBITDA 21.2 (1.3) 15.7 11.1 augured well for GCL, as it has earned a place in the books of almost all Net Profit 45.8 (27.1) 26.2 11.4 OEMs in the 3W industry. With the 3W segment entering a stable growth phase, we expect the pick-up of the four wheeler (4W) small commercial vehicles (SCVs) to provide the next leg of growth, as GCL’s engines power Valuation Matrix Tata Motor’s Ace Zip and Magic brands, which are a runaway hit in the SCV FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E P/E 9.0 12.3 9.7 8.7 segment. GCL, on the other hand, is also expanding its non-auto business Target P/E 11.3 15.5 12.3 11.0 (~45% of revenues: farm equipment, power gensets and infra equipment) EV / EBITDA 6.3 6.4 5.6 4.9 by spending more on R&D, new product launches and focusing on costs to P/BV 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 increase competitiveness. Coupled with this, GCL boasts a solid balance RoNW 28.6 19.0 21.4 21.2 sheet, efficient working capital cycle, robust free cash flows and generous RoCE 31.0 27.3 28.5 28.3 dividend payouts, which is commendable for an engineering company in such challenging times. We initiate coverage on GCL with a BUY rating. Stock Data 4W SCVs to provide bump up; 3W segment growth sobers up Bloomberg/Reuters Code GRV IS / GRVL.NS Sensex 19,568.0 With 28.9% volume CAGR over FY13-15E, we expect the SCV segment to Average volumes 99,245 be the key driver for GCL. We expect total supplies to the SCV segment to Market Cap (Rs crore) 1,660.6 ramp up ~2.5x from 39,000 units in FY12 to 108,000 units in FY15E, with 52 week H/L 86 / 61 SCVs accounting for 14% of consolidated revenues by FY15E. On the other Equity Capital (Rs crore) 48.8 hand, GCL will dominate in the 3W segment, where we expect volumes to Promoter's Stake (%) 51.6 grow at 2.9% CAGR over FY13-15E. FII Holding (%) 8.4 Infra segment break even: Critical driver of non-auto segment performance DII Holding (%) 27.2 The infrastructure segment (dealing in construction equipment) contributes Comparative return matrix (%) 10-12% of overall revenues while contributing negatively on the EBIT front. Return % 1M 3M 6M 12M Management’s guidance on FY14E break even can provide the much Greaves Cotton 3.0 (9.4) (8.6) (9.1) required financial leverage and enhanced margins and RoEs (21.2% over Cummins India 3.7 4.3 7.6 13.8 FY14E-15E). Other non-auto businesses, like farm equipment and power Kirloskar Oil Engines 7.7 (5.2) (5.9) 20.6 genset businesses are expected to perform steadily witnessing revenue Larsen & Toubro 11.6 2.4 (5.6) 33.3 CAGR of 9.0% and 8.0% over FY13-15E, respectively. Solid credentials despite challenging environment calls for BUY Price movement Leadership status in three wheeler segment will help keep fundamentals 6,500 90 steady while exposure to SCVs, on the other hand, would provide next leg 6,000 80 up, as we expect overall volumes in the auto segment to grow at a CAGR of 5,500 70 7.6% over FY13-15E. Being a product based engineering company, GCL 5,000 60 commands a solid balance sheet, supported by robust FCF (yield at ~5% on FY14E FCF), generous dividend payouts and strong RoE profile (21.5% 4,500 50 over FY14E-FY15E), provides margin of safety. We forecast 11.7% and 4,000 40 18.6% CAGR in revenues and profitability, respectively, over FY13-15E and 3,500 30 value the stock at 11x FY15E EPS to arrive at a fair value of | 86/share. May-12 Aug-12 Nov-12 Feb-13 May-13 Exhibit 1: Key financials Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) (Year-end March) FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E Net Sales (| crore) 1,250.5 1,750.0 1,867.9 2,118.1 2,331.9 EBITDA (| crore) 197.8 239.6 236.6 273.7 304.0 Analyst’s name Net Profit (| crore) 127.2 185.4 135.2 170.6 190.0 EPS (|) 5.2 7.6 5.5 7.0 7.8 Chirag J Shah P/E (x) 13.1 9.0 12.3 9.7 8.7 [email protected] Price / Book (x) 3.2 2.6 2.3 2.1 1.9 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.7 6.3 6.4 5.6 4.9 Sonabh .Bubna RoCE (%) 23.0 22.9 18.7 19.9 19.8 [email protected] RoE (%) 24.2 28.6 19.0 21.4 21.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Shareholding pattern (Q4FY13) Company background Shareholding Pattern Holdings (%) With an operational history of more than a century and a half, Greaves Promoters 51.6 Cotton (GCL) is a manufacturer of single cylinder engines, which run 3Ws Institutional investors 35.7 (like Piaggio Ape, Atul Shakti, Mahindra Alfa) and 4W SCVs (like Tata Ace Others 12.7 Zip). The company also manufactures and markets auxiliary power gensets, farm equipment (like portable engines, pump sets, tillers), industrial engines Institutional holding trend (%) and construction & concreting equipment (like batching plants, transit mixers). GCL is an established player in the majority of these categories, with the market leader tag in the 3W goods segment, commanding a 30 27.9 27.2 27.2 26.98 market share of ~80-90%. The business model being a product-based one, 25 helps maintain a steady state of revenues, with short execution and working capital cycle. Hence, the company, in the past, has exhibited a steady 20 growth profile coupled with a robust balance sheet. 15 (%) 8.74 The company was originally founded in 1859 by James Greaves and 7.6 7.9 8.4 10 George Cotton. GCL was purchased by the Thapar group in 1947. Since 5 then, the company has come a long way in earning the reputation of an established engine manufacturer. GCL commands employee strength of 0 4,400 people. The company is head-quartered in Mumbai. GCL has 11 Q1FY13 Q2FY13 Q3FY13 Q4FY13 manufacturing units located all over India. Over time, the company has also FII DII developed an extensive pan-India after sales service and dealership network, which would be hard for any new entrant to replicate. Exhibit 2: Key milestones for Greaves Cotton got Launched Introduced Opens new New manufacturing JV with Crompton Thapar group, Technical transit mixer concreting technology facility for new G Series CromptonParkinson for the current collaboration and batching equipment in centre to engine in Pune, Parkinsonceiling fans for and promoters, with BOMAG plants technical design and compaction equipment ceilingother electronic fans buys the GmbH, collaboration develop new plant and agro anditems. other JV went on company, Germany, to with CIFA of generation equipment plant opened electronicto become making it an manufacture Italy engines at in Gummidipoondi, items,Crompton JV Indian vibratory Aurangabad Tamil Nadu wentGreaves on to company compactors become Crompton Greaves 1859193719371939 19391947 19471980 19861980 1986 19861996 19961986 1996 1996 2001 2005 2006 2007 2008 2012 Co JV with Ruston Commenced Acquired two JV with Piaggio Co launches Eco Acquires Bukh- Crosses founded & Hornsby, UK manufacturing plants from Veicoli Europei SpA friendly light diesel Farymann GmbH three million by James for high power MWM Enfield India Ltd to of Italy, for making engine complying Diesel, Germany. mark in light Greaves manufacturing diesel engines manufacture the APE series of with Bharat stage II Sets up light diesel and diesel engines needed for petrol / kerosene three wheelers. The (Euro II) emission engines Unit IV at engines George in India gensets and engines stake in this JV was norms Aurangabad Cotton marine propulsion later divested Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 3: Business model Business Divided into Division What GCL Makes GCL makes Engines Supplies them to OEM's like OEMs use them to run their GCL's engines are industry 3Ws and LCVs like recognised, with 80% share in 3W goods segment, and 10% in 4W LCVs. Contributed ~55% to GCL's topline in Auto Division Auto FY12 Offers gensets in range of 25 KVA GCL makes complete to 500 KVA gensets Retail outlets, commercial With tough competition & tepid For GCL, the best category is complexes, hotels, hospitals, volume growth, the outlook is 15KVA to 135KVA. SMEs are chief user industries flattish. This segment contributed of these products ~15% to the topline in FY12 Power Division Power Unlike Cummins, which appoints OEMs to market its gensets, GCL both makes and markets it gensets GCL makes complete products and Subsidies play a key role, which transfers them to regional GCL offers constitute nearly 40-50% for distributors. They later, in turn, GCL's product range.
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