The Grantham Research Institute at 10 Analysis, engagement, leadership GRANTHAM RESEARCH INSTITUTE AT 10 ANALYSIS, ENGAGEMENT, LEADERSHIP

Foreword

Welcome to the celebration of 10 years will enable people across the globe to of the Grantham Research Institute on meet the challenges of climate change, Climate Change and the Environment, from transitioning to a new era of here at the London School of Economics low-carbon development to building and Political Science. resilience in those already being LSE was founded with a mission affected by its impacts. of undertaking research ‘for the On behalf of the School, I extend betterment of society’. Over one our deep gratitude to the Grantham hundred years later, the Grantham Foundation for the Protection of Research Institute stands as an the Environment, which has been embodiment of the very best of that instrumental in providing support mission, bringing together researchers for establishing the Institute and and students from across the School for the contributions it has made, in common pursuit of solutions to as detailed in these pages. The School environmental challenges. also gratefully acknowledges the In particular, during a period funding from the Economic and Social when climate change has grown in Research Council, which has enabled international consciousness into one the work of the Centre for Climate of the most pressing challenges of Change Economics and Policy, jointly our age, the Institute has established hosted by the Institute at LSE and the a national and international reputation University of Leeds. for research which has contributed As the environmental challenges to a global debate on how humanity facing our world continue to grow in can respond. complexity, so too grows the need for As the following pages demonstrate, policy-relevant research that provides the Institute’s team has engaged on pathways to solutions. I hope that every front of this debate, from the in exploring the contribution the very highest level of international Grantham Research Institute has policymaking to regular engagement made over the last decade you too with decision-makers across will recognise the value of supporting national governments, parliaments, such active and relevant research. international agencies and civil society. Their ongoing aim is to bring the Dame Minouche Shafik benefits of their insights to bear Director, London School of Economics on decisions being made now which and Political Science GRANTHAM RESEARCH INSTITUTE AT 10 ANALYSIS, ENGAGEMENT, LEADERSHIP

Introduction Contents

of action to match the scale and 2 Supporting a global urgency of the challenges the world agreement: to Paris faces. Research and policy analysis and beyond now need to focus on how to create 4 Engaging with and exploit the opportunities that multilateral institutions sustainable development and the low-carbon transition are generating, 5 Contributing to carbon particularly for strong and inclusive market reform growth across the global economy. 6 Exploring corporate Our understanding has developed climate risk: the a great deal over the past decade, Transition Pathway but we still have much more to learn. Initiative Since its beginnings in 2008, the The low-carbon transition will Grantham Research Institute has require a deepening of international 8 Equipping contributed to a transformation in collaboration, building on the spirit of parliamentarians the way action on climate change is mutual understanding that has already worldwide with climate understood around the world – evolving fostered so much progress, with greater legislation and litigation from narrow cost–benefit calculations investment in innovation, technology knowledge to much broader and stronger analyses development and infrastructure. Key 10 Contributing to the and insights into the relationship to this is enlightened and credible changing Chinese debate between the low-carbon transition and policymaking. on climate change economic growth and development. The low-carbon transition offers the The Institute has been established only realistic path towards sustainable 12 Building resilience to on the principles of rigorous, robust and and inclusive growth. Rich countries climate change impacts independent research and analysis, and must support the world’s poor countries in developing countries engagement with the public, private and to make the transition to low-carbon 12 Working with the private third sectors, to promote well informed growth and to build their resilience to sector: Climate risks decision-making about environmental those impacts of climate change that and opportunities in problems, particularly climate change. cannot now be avoided. insurance As the following pages show, the The Grantham Research Institute is Institute has been engaged with a global institute with an international 14 Advising on emissions decision-making on the global, regional outlook, addressing the biggest reductions and climate and national scales. Our work has environmental challenges facing the risk management ranged from helping the international world. We seek to provide opportunities 16 Communicating climate negotiators to achieve the 2015 Paris for researchers worldwide and from change risks Agreement on climate change, to across many disciplines to work together contributing evidence to the reform of to create new ideas and insights. As 18 World-class research, the EU emissions trading system; and we look forward to the next 10 years, academic impact from identifying potential improvements we hope to forge new partnerships and events in flood risk management for the UK, and build further relationships with 20 10 minutes on 10 years to working with partners in Sub-Saharan those who share our vision of a world in with… Judith Rees Africa to improve the use of climate which climate change and other global information in making decisions about environmental challenges are managed 22 Supporting career development and building resilience. effectively to promote prosperity and progression A global agenda has been created over wellbeing for all. 24 A last word from… the past few years, primarily through the Jeremy Grantham CBE Paris Agreement and the United Nations Professor Lord Nicholas Stern, Chair Sustainable Development Goals. The Professor Dame Judith Rees, Vice-chair 25 A ‘thank you’ from next 10 years will require acceleration Professor Sam Fankhauser, Director the Institute

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Supporting a global agreement: to Paris and beyond

gap between the collective emissions reductions resulting from national plans and the projected emission pathways needed to limit global warming to no more than 2°C. The resultant report focused the attention of negotiators on the importance of increasing the ambition of emissions cuts by 2020.

Reframing the arguments for low-carbon growth

Despite intensive efforts, the Copenhagen summit failed to achieve a full consensus between all countries. According to Professor Stern, the Nicholas Stern (left) welcomes the signing of the Paris Agreement, with Al Gore and Ségolène Royal UNFCCC principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibility’ had Building a global consensus on and representatives of Hillary Clinton, become a significant stumbling block collective climate change action then Secretary of State of the United in reaching meaningful international has been a central aim of the States, on the contentious question agreement. He challenged the international climate negotiations of how much financial support rich prevailing narrative that low-carbon since the United Nations Framework countries should provide for developing growth would only entail significant Convention on Climate Change nations’ transition to low-carbon costs that would need to be shouldered (UNFCCC) was agreed in 1992. growth and increases in their resilience mainly by industrialised nations, Through its research and analysis to climate change impacts. The United and highlighted the major economic the Grantham Research Institute States eventually agreed that rich benefits, especially for developing has contributed to the negotiation countries should provide US$100 billion countries, that were being overlooked. process, helping to transform the narrative around climate action “The Institute’s research challenged the prevailing narrative from one of burdens to be shouldered that low-carbon growth would only entail significant costs mainly by rich countries, towards that would need to be shouldered mainly by industrialised one of shared opportunities, fostered by an atmosphere of collaborative nations, and highlighted the major economic benefits internationalism. that were being overlooked.”

Securing international agreement a year, from both public and private Governments and citizens needed on climate change has been a long sources, by 2020 to support developing to recognise the economic benefits and difficult process, but one that countries. This commitment was of a low-carbon transition beyond the Institute has been dedicated included in the Copenhagen Accord, the avoided damage from climate to supporting. In the run-up to the and endorsed by all countries in the change impacts. Professor Stern Copenhagen climate change summit Cancún Agreements a year later. and Institute colleagues worked with in 2009, the Institute’s chair, Nicholas Ahead of the Copenhagen summit, partners across the world to increase Stern, collaborated closely with Meles the Institute, with the United Nations this understanding. A key milestone Zenawi, the Ethiopian Prime Minister Environment Programme, also was the launch in 2014 of a landmark who was leading the African Union, contributed influential analysis of the report, Better Growth, Better Climate,

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overseen by the Global Commission and colleagues as they develop tools “Under the visionary on the Economy and Climate, co- for assessing how to make national leadership of Nicholas chaired by former Mexican President regulatory frameworks consistent with Stern, over the past Felipe Calderón and Professor Stern. contributions to the Paris Agreement. 10 years the Grantham It showed the additional benefits of This work has been presented to the Research Institute action on climate change, including UNFCCC, European Commission, and has been one of a reduction in death and illness from to national parliaments and ministries. the most influential research local air pollution; these have proved to The commitments on financial powerhouses on global climate be powerful arguments for accelerating support for developing countries change. Their consistently compelling the low-carbon transition. to make the transition to a low- analyses of the economics of climate carbon economy were extended change have shifted the debate Ensuring credible action and beyond 2020 at the Paris summit, on decarbonisation from burden to implementing the Paris Agreement and Professor Stern worked with key opportunity and growth. It is this new countries to explore the role that understanding that will allow us to Principal research fellow Alina the multilateral development banks, effectively address climate change.” Averchenkova has been very active including the World Bank, could play Christiana Figueres, Executive in dialogue with parliamentarians, in implementation. As the summit Secretary, UNFCCC, 2010–16 including the Inter-Parliamentary entered its final session, Professor Stern Union, and other policymakers around was given a front-row seat to witness the world especially on the importance the historic moment when countries “Nick Stern has been of domestic governance frameworks approved the Paris Agreement. an inspiration to me, and processes in ensuring the credibility Professor Stern notes the because as a leading of international commitments. At the transformation in attitudes towards economist he both Paris summit in 2015, Dr Averchenkova low-carbon growth between the understands and presented analysis of the credibility summits in Copenhagen and Paris. conveys the climate of countries’ pledges, or ‘nationally He emphasises the change in the justice message. In addition, we determined contributions’, on understanding of the role China could both reference our grandchildren! mitigation and adaptation action. play in climate leadership (see p10), and The LSE and Grantham Research Researchers from the Institute also the growing spirit of internationalism Institute database on climate change developed a framework for assessing which led to the Agreement. laws of the world [see p8] has been the likelihood that the G20 nations Supporting the implementation invaluable to my Foundation in would be able to implement their of the Paris Agreement is a core pillar assisting countries to respond to pledges. To aid national legislators of the Institute’s research strategy. recommendations on climate change and other policymakers, this work has Professor Stern remains engaged with as part of the Universal Periodic been extended by Dr Averchenkova high-level policymakers, particularly Review of the Human Rights Council.” on the issue of financing sustainable Mary Robinson, President, infrastructure. The Institute’s governance Mary Robinson Foundation – and legislation team continue to focus Climate Justice on national climate governance systems (see p8–9), assessing the credibility of policies and the alignment between national legislative frameworks and countries’ commitments under the Paris Agreement. The Institute is also analysing the impacts of existing climate change legislation, and evaluating policymakers’ experiences of passing and implementing climate laws and policies in various countries. There is Alina Averchenkova presents the 2015 a new focus on the political economy Global Climate Legislation Study at the of ambition and drivers for ratcheting Paris summit (Photo: IISD/ENB enb.iisd.org/ up the level of national contributions climate/cop21/enbots/8dec.html) to the Paris Agreement.

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Engaging with multilateral institutions

The support of multilateral Nicholas Stern and Sam Fankhauser focusing on the growth trajectories of institutions is crucial to the held positions in the World Bank and the middle-income countries, and helped to successful implementation of EBRD prior to joining the Institute. There draft a chapter of the report exploring the Paris Agreement on climate is a regular exchange of staff between green growth, with recommendations change. The Institute has long the Institute and the World Bank, for middle-income countries to meet been contributing expertise to which has provided Visiting Fellows to their commitments under the Paris decision-makers at the highest undertake post-graduate training, and Agreement while continuing to grow. level in institutions that are with the OECD, which researchers and The economic consequences of increasingly turning their attention students have joined following their moving to a low-carbon economy was to actively building a sustainable time at the Institute or on secondment. also the theme of a two-year research and low-carbon future, including Researchers from the Institute and programme sponsored by the South the World Bank, the European Bank international organisations have joined Korea-based intergovernmental for Reconstruction and Development forces to explore specific policy options. organisation, the Global Green (EBRD), and the Organisation For example, in 2017, along with Growth Institute (GGGI). The project, for Economic Co-operation and Professor Joseph Stiglitz at Columbia Green Growth and the New Industrial Development (OECD). University, Professor Stern was invited Revolution, examined how environmental by the Carbon Pricing Leadership regulations can encourage economic The Institute’s engagement with Coalition – an initiative supported by growth; and how decision-makers should multilateral institutions is based on the World Bank – to chair a High-Level handle shifts in employment in sectors longstanding relationships. Both Commission on Carbon Prices. The that might be adversely affected by objective was to explore how pricing green growth policies. carbon could drive investment in the Work with the OECD has explored low-carbon economy of the future in particular the impact of the low- “Under Nick Stern’s and implementation of the Paris carbon transition on competitiveness vital leadership, Agreement. The World Bank is now and innovation. the Grantham exploring the introduction of an internal In 2015 the Institute hosted the Research Institute carbon price, consistent with the Stern- OECD’s Secretary-General, Angel has made a great Stiglitz recommendations, that it would Gurría, for a lecture on the state contribution over use in the appraisal of all its projects. of the climate debate in the run-up the past 10 years to shaping Professor Fankhauser was part of the to the Paris summit. In 2016 researchers the global debate on climate team that produced the World Bank’s from the two organisations discussed change and the protection of the World Development Report 2010: the impact of environmental regulation environment. The OECD is proud Development and Climate Change, on low-carbon innovation and trade of our fruitful collaboration, which exploring how to enable countries in a joint workshop with OECD Chief extends not only to research and worldwide to grow their economies and Economist Catherine Mann. analysis, but also to advocacy. The lift people out of poverty, while reducing Institute has been an indispensable emissions. Professor Fankhauser also What’s next? partner in our efforts to disseminate co-edited the Special Report on Climate the work of the OECD in this area Change: The Low Carbon Transition, The Institute continues to work and communicate the policies published by the EBRD in 2011. The with international institutions on needed to leave a better planet report reviewed mitigation efforts in issues such as low-carbon growth to future generations. We thank countries across central Europe and and competitiveness. Antoine Nick and his team for the great central Asia and the steps required Dechezleprêtre, associate professorial partnership, which we look to transition to low-carbon growth. research fellow, is currently seconded forward to continue enhancing Continuing this engagement with to the OECD. A project with the in the years to come.” the EBRD, Professor Fankhauser European Investment Bank is exploring Angel Gurría, contributed to the Bank’s Transition finance for home energy efficiency OECD Secretary-General Report 2017–18: Sustaining Growth, in France, Germany and the UK.

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Contributing to carbon market reform

While carbon trading in the decline in demand had created, continued operation and design as European Union has helped member and the corresponding danger this they evolve,” Dr Taschini says. “The states to cut their greenhouse gas posed to achieving both long-term work we are doing at the Institute emissions, low carbon prices have emissions reduction targets and is now examining the issues around caused concern that innovation the incentivisation of investment in linking carbon markets as we gradually and investment in clean energy low-carbon infrastructure, for some move towards joined-up, international technologies are being stifled. Now, years the European Commission has schemes. By researching potential new mechanisms are being developed been examining how best to reform operational challenges now, we aim to ensure carbon trading reduces the ETS. When the Commission held to provide evidence for decision-makers emissions and stimulates businesses a consultation on reforms in 2013, to enhance the design of mechanisms to shift more rapidly to a low-carbon including proposals for a Market to tackle emissions years into the future.” economy. Work by the Grantham Stability Reserve – whereby permits Research Institute has contributed could be stored and released as What’s next? to the direction of these reforms. required to reduce carbon price volatility – Luca Taschini and colleagues Along with continued engagement with In 2005 the EU established its emissions drew on their research into carbon the European Commission on EU ETS trading system (ETS), which remains trading systems worldwide to propose reform, Dr Taschini is providing South the world’s largest ‘cap-and-trade’ further improvements to the plans. Korean officials with information on scheme. While offering a mechanism Further discussions with staff at the addressing liquidity problems within that in theory enables large polluters European Commission followed, centred the country’s carbon trading scheme. to reduce their emissions in the most on modelling by Institute researchers He has also been asked to advise cost-effective way, the EU ETS suffered showing that the permanent removal Chinese officials on designing a similar from substantial operational problems of surplus permits within such a Reserve mechanism for an internal carbon in its early phases. Significant among could further improve the intended aim trading system for China. these was falling demand for emissions of the mechanism to stabilise permit The linking of carbon markets is permits, leading to an imbalance prices. Subsequently, in early 2017, the recognised as crucial for the cost- in supply and demand to which the Council of the European Union decided effective implementation of the Paris system could not adequately respond; to include a measure in the EU ETS Agreement, yet little is known about in common with many cap-and-trade reform proposals that considered the what factors determine the economic systems, the EU ETS was designed with dynamic cancellation of permits held gains from it. Dr Taschini and Dr Baran a fixed cap on emissions and a rigid in any Stability Reserve Mechanism, Doda are researching how to integrate allocation programme of permits. now scheduled for introduction in 2019. carbon markets, proposing a general In recognition of concern around “There is a clear role for research model to describe and quantify cost- the sustained low permit prices this on carbon markets to inform their savings associated with such linkages.

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Exploring corporate climate risk: the Transition Pathway Initiative

The world’s economy is starting to Established in January 2017 by the the new opportunities afforded by the transition to low-carbon growth, National Investing Bodies of the vast scale of the capital investment boosted by an increase in climate Church of England and the Environment required to make such a transition. legislation over the last decade Agency Pension Fund in the UK, the “There was a feeling that the and the work of the G20’s Taskforce TPI is backed by institutional investors, investment community could benefit on Climate-related Financial pension funds and asset managers. from the research we were already Disclosures (TCFD) in developing It is evaluating what a transition to conducting at the Institute exploring voluntary, consistent climate risk a low-carbon economy might look like climate risk,” says Simon Dietz, who disclosure guidance. In tandem, across different sectors and for different leads the Institute’s engagement a growing number of institutional companies, enabling asset owners to with the Initiative. “At the same time, investors have been considering make informed judgements about how we recognised that for, say, a pension the implications of climate change companies contributing to climate fund trustee, the majority of the existing for their portfolios. It was in this change are adapting to the low-carbon literature is too detailed. There was context that the Transition Pathway transition. It is also examining the extent a need for a high-level overview across Initiative (TPI) was born, with the to which companies are capitalising on different sectors, indeed for individual Grantham Research Institute as the flagship academic partner, “Results to date from a range of sectors, from electricity addressing previously limited access utilities to the automotive industry, reveal stark variations to information on exposure to climate risks for assets across different sectors. in progress on addressing climate risks between companies.”

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says Adam Matthews, co-chair of the Initiative and head of engagement for the Church Commissioners and the Church of England Pensions Board. “There can be no doubt about the seriousness with which asset owners are taking account of these risks and it will be a key feature in the discussions we will be having with companies over the coming years.”

What’s next?

Forthcoming work from the TPI includes continuing to scale up coverage to cover over 200 companies, broadening the The TPI was launched at the London Stock Exchange on 11 January 2017 with 13 leading range of the online tool to include new international asset owners and five asset managers with over £2 trillion under management sectors, updating and increasing the (Photo: London Stock Exchange) comprehensiveness of the methodology, and revamping the website and online companies, which we saw could aid Transition Pathway Initiative, brings this tool to improve usability. engagement around climate risk issues.” framework to life,” says Professor Dietz. Use the TPI toolkit and explore The team at the Institute devised The number of supporting institutional the results at www.lse.ac.uk/ a bespoke methodology, using data investors and asset managers has GranthamInstitute/tpi/ provided by FTSE Russell, and worked doubled during the life of the Initiative. with asset owners to produce a free It has also gained official recognition online tool, with new sectors being from Principles for Responsible Disclaimer: This article does not provide investment added continually. “What we are doing, Investment – supported by the United advice and nothing within should be construed as being personalised investment advice for your particular in a very practical way, is analysing Nations, this body is the leading circumstances. This article does not take account of how comprehensively companies are proponent of responsible investment individual investment objectives or the financial position or specific needs of individual users. You must not rely reporting on climate risks, whether worldwide and it now provides the on this article to make a financial or investment decision. those risks are being strategically secretariat for the TPI. Before making any financial or investment decisions, we recommend you consult a financial planner to take into recognised and managed and, if they “The Transition Pathway Initiative account your personal investment objectives, financial are, whether performance is at a level is a tipping point for the market,” situation and individual needs. which matches international ambition in terms of emissions reductions,” says Professor Dietz. This includes evaluating performance against both national and “Businesses should be able explain international climate change pledges to investors how they plan to under the Paris Agreement. manage climate change risks, Results to date from a range of invest and innovate on the way sectors, from electricity utilities to to the zero-carbon economy the automotive industry, reveal stark of the future. With the launch variations in progress on addressing of the Transition Pathway Initiative, climate risks between companies. asset owners from around the As well as providing a tool for world are sending a strong signal investors directly, the Initiative has that portfolios will align in the engaged with the TCFD, which was future with companies that initiated by Mark Carney and is are taking the transition to a chaired by Michael Bloomberg, and low-carbon economy seriously.” aims to develop voluntary, consistent Emma Howard Boyd, chair, risk disclosure guidance for use Environment Agency (UK) Simon Dietz addresses the TPI launch, with by companies. “Our work here at Emma Howard Boyd and Adam Matthews the Institute, contributing to the (Photo: London Stock Exchange)

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Equipping parliamentarians worldwide with climate legislation and litigation knowledge

Creating a case for stronger legislation The Institute originally partnered with The Institute has continued to build in support of climate action can be the Global Legislators Organisation, up this one-of-a-kind knowledge difficult for parliamentarians without GLOBE International, to provide a resource, first with GLOBE as its partner, the evidence to show how this will platform for climate champions from later with the Inter-Parliamentary benefit their country. The Grantham different parliaments to meet and Union, and since 2017 with the Sabin Research Institute has been building exchange knowledge to inform their own Center for Climate Change Law at up a unique knowledge resource to law-making. “That first meeting revealed Columbia Law School. Now a searchable support their efforts. that these parliamentarians required online resource with global coverage, accurate information of what was ‘Climate Change Laws of the World’ Parliamentarians play several crucial roles in climate change processes: “The scope of Climate Change Laws of the World is all the making laws, passing budgets and laws and policies from legislative and executive branches of overseeing government action. Recognising that making the government that are relevant to climate change mitigation case for stronger climate action, and adaptation, and to transitions to a low-carbon economy.” especially through legislation, can be challenging, the Institute has been happening in other countries, particularly is a tool for policymakers, academics, engaging this group and supporting those with similar circumstances or legal professionals, NGOs and journalists. their work since 2010. “Theirs were challenges,” explains Dr Nachmany. So Updated regularly, its scope is all the voices that were not yet clearly heard in 2011 the Institute published the first laws and policies – close to 1,500 to at the UNFCCC conferences so they in a ground-breaking series of global date – from legislative and executive needed to be better equipped with climate change legislation studies: a branches of government that are knowledge to influence within their own compendium of laws, each summarised relevant to climate change mitigation governments,” says Michal Nachmany, succinctly in English, avoiding legal and adaptation, and to transitions whose work focuses on climate change jargon. They show what is being done, to a low-carbon economy. In 2017 legislation and governance. where, how and why. the web resource had nearly 11,000

The ‘Climate Change Laws of the World’ resource’s interactive map leads to detailed information on national-level climate change legislation and policies for every country

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over insufficient ambition and those in which compensation has been sought from major emitters for climate-related injuries and costs. Increasingly, courts are being exposed to disputes involving action and inaction on climate change mitigation and adaptation. Dr Joana Setzer, who leads the Institute’s research in this area, says, “The litigation database is a valuable resource for learning about specific cases or understanding trends in litigation.”

What’s next?

The governance and legislation team is further researching governance and institutional arrangement indicators, Michal Nachmany at the GLOBE International Climate Legislation Summit 2014, where to assess the frameworks that countries the Institute’s fourth climate legislation study was launched (Photo: Jeff Leyshon) use to design, implement and revisit their laws and policies. Additionally, visitors and the published annual world leaders at the Paris summit more information is being analysed update highlighting key trends in December 2015, in his support for about targets in national laws and was the Institute’s most viewed a ‘2 degree deal’, and UK legislators policies, to assess their consistency and and downloaded publication. have repeatedly referred to the resource alignment with countries’ nationally The resource reveals a wide range in parliamentary debates. determined contributions (the building of options and solutions, helping The accompanying collection of blocks of the Paris Agreement) and the parliamentarians to develop national information on litigation features over extent to which they allow ratcheting responses to climate change. Indeed, 260 climate-related court cases from up of ambition. China’s National Center for Climate 25 countries, including those in which Explore the data at www.lse.ac.uk/ Change Strategy and International governments have been challenged GranthamInstitute/legislation Cooperation credited it as directly informing the development of the country’s draft climate change law: “The experience of other countries,” “The Inter-Parliamentary Union is proud to have partnered with wrote director general Li Junfeng the Grantham Research Institute in producing The Global Climate in 2014, “has contributed greatly Legislation Study in 2015 and Global trends in climate change to our own legislation and policies.” legislation and litigation in 2017. These publications constitute By promoting transparency a significant knowledge capital for parliaments: they are an and access to information, the important resource that MPs can consult at any time during resource sends a strong signal to the their legislative work. Parliamentarians are a crucial element of any successful international community. “Before the strategy for tackling climate change and are duty-bound to enact and amend Paris Agreement, it was too easy for laws, approve national budgets and hold governments to account. The aim governments to disengage – why should of IPU’s collaboration with the Grantham Research Institute is to produce one government act if they couldn’t high-quality and policy-relevant research to further support and empower see that others were? Our work has parliamentarians working on climate change all over the world.” been particularly effective in assuring Martin Chungong, Secretary-General, Inter-Parliamentary Union parliamentarians that their country is not acting alone, thus strengthening their resolve and willingness to take action,” says Dr Nachmany. UK Prime Minister David Cameron used the data to make this point in his address to

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Contributing to the changing Chinese debate on climate change

The first 10 years of the Grantham Agreements a year later, in turn an Research Institute have coincided important step towards the landmark with a period that has seen a Paris Agreement. Since then, China has transformation in China’s society, become a global leader on international economy and environment, and climate change, and action has been the mainstreaming of climate embedded into its Five-Year Plans. action into its plans for economic How did China’s radical new growth. Nicholas Stern, who has approach to thinking about climate been working in China since 1998, change come about in such a short has contributed important analysis time? Through rigorous empirical to the evidence base on which the analysis of solid evidence, according to Chinese government has drawn Professor Stern, and by seeking expert for its climate change policymaking advice, China has understood that and target-setting. action on climate change is consistent with its goals for sustainable economic The outcome of the Copenhagen growth. As one of the few overseas climate change summit in 2009 was experts regularly invited to contribute viewed by many as a disappointment to the annual China Development for not producing a comprehensive Forum, Professor Stern has presented agreement signed by all countries, and discussed his work with senior and the Chinese negotiators were Chinese representatives in Beijing. unfairly blamed by some rich countries He has been very active in drawing for that failure. However, the road the attention of the world to the to Copenhagen and the summit speed and scale of climate action in itself generated commitments to China. A paper delivered to the Forum reduce emissions from China and the in 2015, which projected that China’s United States, the world’s two largest annual emissions of carbon dioxide greenhouse gas emitters, for the first may have been close to peaking, time. China was one of five countries received worldwide media coverage. that successfully agreed the terms Professor Stern has maintained good of the Copenhagen Accord, which relationships with members of the became the blueprint for the Cancún Chinese government, including Xie

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Zhenhua, China’s chief negotiator commitment to reduce its reliance on as it has increased its understanding at the United Nations climate coal. Professor Stern has pointed out of the risks posed by the extent of change summits. that developing green infrastructure in its greenhouse gas emissions. This Asia over the next 20 years is the key to is apparent from the role it played Mobilising finance for sustainable managing the risks of climate change. in finalising the Paris Agreement and development He is a member of the international from its 12th and 13th Five-Year Plans, advisory panel of the Asia Infrastructure in which energy conservation, pollution The launch of the New Development Investment Bank, launched in 2015 as control and renewable and alternative Bank (popularly known as the BRICS part of the Belt and Road Initiative’s energy sources have been given high Bank) in 2015 was the culmination regional infrastructure plan, and priority. Professor Stern has also been of a process that began from an headquartered in Beijing. instrumental in showing the rest of the idea originally conceived by Professor Stern with Professor Joseph Stiglitz “Professor Stern has been instrumental in showing the rest of Columbia University in 2011. It of the world how rapidly the picture is changing in China has focused on mobilising finance for sustainable development and and the extent to which the country could act as a model sustainable infrastructure, and for other emerging market and developing countries.” especially on promoting renewable energy development. In China, the It is undeniable that the way world how rapidly the picture is changing Bank is providing long-term loans that China approaches growth in China, and the extent to which the to projects including offshore wind and development, both domestically country could act as a model for the farms and rooftop solar power, and internationally, has changed economic growth of other emerging which will contribute to the country’s dramatically over the last decade market and developing countries.

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Building resilience to climate change impacts in developing countries

Climate science insights is changing in Malawi and Tanzania, as droughts and extreme rainfall, to including how extreme conditions may explore their specific information needs for Sub-Saharan Africa affect these countries in the future. on climate change. The researchers The development and investment “We are working with decision-makers then produced data and analysis decisions being made now across to produce tools that enable them relevant for decisions being made on sub-Saharan Africa will affect to use the latest climate information the development of new infrastructure, resilience to climate change impacts to pursue development that is resilient such as hydropower installations. For for years to come. The Grantham to the effects of climate change,” says example, the project has considered Research Institute is the lead academic Professor Conway. “We are anticipating how climate change will affect the partner in a major international that this could be applied in other Rufiji river basin, designated as the collaboration involving universities and countries and regions, informing Southern Agricultural Growth Corridor local organisations in several countries, development strategies in a broad of Tanzania, on which 80 per cent of working to enhance decision-making range of circumstances across Africa.” the country’s hydropower depends. in the face of future climate impacts The cross-institutional team worked Balancing rapidly growing demand while strengthening local capacity with decision-makers in both countries, for water to support food and energy to become more resilient. which are already affected by changing production is a critical challenge. patterns of high-impact events such A key part of the project is to build This is the focus of UMFULA long-term climate resilience expertise (Uncertainty reduction in models A Malawi government meteorologist in the region, and so the consortium for understanding development explains forecasting techniques has sponsored Masters and PhD students applications – umfula means ‘river’ to an UMFULA researcher. at Lilongwe University of Agriculture in Zulu), a research project and (Photo: Katharine Vincent) & Natural Resources in Malawi and consortium of universities in the UK, Sokoine University of Agriculture in Tanzania, Malawi, South Africa and Tanzania. UMFULA also aims to create Cameroon, led by Declan Conway strong relationships between researchers at the Grantham Research Institute. and decision-makers within affected This international team is producing countries and internationally, so that climate science insights for more the benefits continue long after the reliable information on how the climate project concludes.

The Grantham Research Institute The programme involved 29 staff Working with has worked with several insurance members at LSE, and covered areas sector partners. In 2008, German ranging from the impacts of climate the private sector: reinsurance company Munich Re change on extreme weather events agreed to partner with LSE in a major to the economic impacts on emerging Climate risks research programme for five years, economies. It proved to be an agenda- and opportunities under the auspices of the Centre for setting programme, triggering many Climate Change Economics and Policy, further projects, including the Institute’s in insurance a joint venture between the Institute current work exploring how climate and the University of Leeds. The insurance can improve resilience in Munich Re programme explored how developing countries. The programme climate change would affect the also placed emphasis on direct insurance sector around the world. engagement with policymakers,

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Traditional cotton the University of Ouagadougou in spinning or Mottude Burkina Faso; Kenya Markets Trust in in Wendu Bosseabe Kenya; the Regional Environment Center village, Senegal, part for Central Asia in Tajikistan; and the of the PRISE research Mountain Societies Research Institute area. (Photo: Lancelot Ehode – IED Afrique/PRISE) at the University of Central Asia in Kyrgyzstan. They have explored potential pathways to enabling households and small businesses – which employ a significant proportion of people in these countries – to become more resilient in the face of climate risks. The researchers have found businesses are already proactively using a range of strategies to ensure their continuity during extreme weather conditions. However, government support and specific adaptation assistance are essential to enhancing the ability of Building business The Institute’s researchers who are these firms to build their resilience. contributing to PRISE are working As part of the broader PRISE resilience in with policymakers and decision- consortium, the Institute’s team is now semi-arid nations makers involved in shaping economic engaging with national governments development in these semi-arid in partner countries, international Semi-arid regions are already regions to promote climate-resilient civil society, multilateral development experiencing changing rainfall economic development. PRISE does this organisations, donor agencies, the patterns and periods of intense by deepening understanding among international climate community and drought. The Institute’s sustainable stakeholders of the opportunities those involved more broadly in global development group has been part that climate change may bring, and economic development to present of PRISE (Pathways to Resilience also ways to build resilience to the evidence on how they can support small in Semi-arid Economies), the aim challenges posed by its impacts. businesses in semi-arid lands to become of which is to improve the resilience The consortium is led by the Overseas more resilient to climate change. to climate change impacts of people Development Institute, and the team “While climate change is already living in semi-arid parts of Africa has worked alongside the Sustainable impacting these businesses, there is and South-Central Asia, including Development Policy Institute in recognition now that there should be an Senegal, Kenya, Tanzania, Pakistan Pakistan; Innovation, Environnement, aspiration not only to cope, but to thrive and Kyrgyzstan. Développement en Afrique in Senegal; even as conditions change,” concludes Dr Florence Crick, one of the project’s researchers. “We are contributing, in a specific and significant way, to making that a reality.” leading to follow-on projects such Several outputs from the as a stocktake of risk transfer schemes Munich Re programme received What’s next? in developing countries conducted by special recognition. The paper Swenja Surminski and Nicola Ranger. by Dr Ranger and Dr Surminski The team will soon complete research on This database, intended to inform the on non-life insurance demand understanding the impacts of the major UNFCCC’s discussions about the use in the BRICS countries was 2015 El Niño event on water resources of financial instruments for addressing shortlisted for the Lloyd’s Risk and business activity in Botswana, Kenya ‘Loss and Damage’, was subsequently Prize in 2014. The EAERE-award- and Zambia. A new project, ACACIA, used by the UK’s Department for winning paper ‘Scientific ambiguity is investigating the sustainability of International Development and and climate policy’ (Millner, Dietz development corridors established to other aid agencies, and the UNFCCC and Heal) has had a significant promote areas of economic integration has frequently consulted Dr Surminski impact on research into climate in East Africa, including the role of on insurance and risk. change economics. Chinese investment.

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Advising on emissions reductions and climate risk management: mitigation and adaptation in the UK and beyond

Reducing greenhouse “A significant recommendation we with the independent CCC playing made as a committee was to elevate its vital role, has also had an impact gas emissions in the UK the UK’s emissions reduction target internationally. The Act is widely Through insights and analysis from 60 to 80 per cent below 1990 considered as one of the factors that provided to the Government and levels, which in 2008 became the 2050 enabled the UK to play a leadership role the UK’s expert independent advisory target in the Climate Change Act,” says in the negotiations leading up to the body, the Committee on Climate Professor Fankhauser. “The five carbon Paris Agreement. This is a role that Change (CCC), the Grantham budgets we recommended define other countries value as they design Research Institute has contributed ambitious emission reduction paths legislation to cut emissions. to more informed policymaking into the 2030s, with clarity on the about how to cut emissions. near-term necessary actions.” So far the UK has achieved cuts that have Between 2008 and 2016 Sam Fankhauser surpassed the first and second carbon “The Grantham was one of eight members of the CCC budget targets. Research Institute analysing research in order to advise In explaining the scientific and has played a crucial on targets for the UK to reduce its international context for the fifth role in the work emissions in line with the landmark carbon budget, set in 2015, the of the Climate 2008 Climate Change Act. CCC used details from the Institute’s Change Committee. “I joined the Grantham Research 2015 Global Climate Legislation The quality of its work and its Institute soon after becoming Study (see p8). The CCC took evidence intellectual capacity has helped a member of the CCC. This meant from the Institute’s research on the our thinking in some of the most I was able to contribute the most widespread introduction of climate complex areas that we cover. relevant and timely findings from the change legislation and economy-wide Its name has always been a Institute’s research,” says Professor reduction targets around the world, guarantee of rigour and objectivity. Fankhauser. For example, the Institute’s and used it to show the credibility Of course, the Institute has brought work on low-carbon competitiveness of developing policies to support together outstanding individuals informed an important Committee low-carbon technology and markets. but its fundamental strength has study published in 2013. The Institute’s Research carried out in 2017/18 by the been its corporate discipline and research suggested that some of the Grantham Research Institute into the common standards. Few Institutes UK’s energy-intensive sectors had effectiveness of the CCC in its advisory have achieved such a reputation a comparative advantage over key role within the UK Climate Change for rigour and capacity in a single competitors. These findings went on Act framework shows that it is viewed decade of existence.” to support the advice of the CCC to as a source of independent, objective Rt Hon. John Gummer, the Government on how to reduce the and trusted information, enabling an Lord Deben, Chair, Committee UK’s carbon footprint and manage intelligent debate within and outside on Climate Change competitiveness risks. government. The Climate Change Act,

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Adapting to climate asked by the Government to produce Swenja Surminski an evidence report to inform the second change impacts in Climate Change Risk Assessment. the UK and Europe Professor Fankhauser and colleagues contributed the methodology for Climate change is already affecting deciding how to prioritise adaptation businesses and communities in the risks and opportunities. UK, with a higher risk of heatwaves, Swenja Surminski, the Institute’s heavy rainfall leading to river and programme leader for the ‘climate surface water flooding, and coastal risk, insurance and private sector’ flooding from sea level rise. There work stream, was chosen to be lead is a clear need for planning and author of the business and industry investment to adapt to these risks. chapter of the second Climate Change The Grantham Research Institute Risk Assessment. Her selection followed Dr Surminski, with colleagues at has provided important analysis the publication of her extensive and the Institute and at the University of in this area, especially in relation influential research on flood risk Oxford, extended the work under the to flood risk and insurance. insurance, especially her examination EU’s ‘Enhance’ project, using England of the design of Flood Re, the UK as a case study. She says, “We were Two key processes the UK government government’s flood reinsurance scheme. looking for new ideas for how to use uses for identifying priority risks and adapting to climate change impacts “As a result of Dr Surminski’s recommendations, the Government are the five-yearly Climate Change revised the underpinning legislation for its flood reinsurance Risk Assessments and its strategy for addressing the identified risks and scheme, Flood Re, to take account of climate change impacts.” opportunities, the National Adaptation Programme (NAP). The Institute has “We found that worsening flooding flood insurance, beyond paying for strong expertise in finance, investment due to climate change is a barrier flood damages. We asked whether flood and insurance, and in the analytical to provision of affordable insurance. insurance could help to prevent flooding and empirical examination of policies Using insurance to incentivise effective by addressing the underlying risk, for to deliver adaptation action; it identified adaptation and flood risk management example by presenting incentives for priorities for action in a ‘shadow’ NAP instead of creating a false sense of homeowners and property developers in 2013, sparking frank exchanges with security is crucial for ensuring that to build more resilient homes, and government, and made significant flood insurance is affordable and widely by influencing government decisions.” inputs to the second Climate Change available,” Dr Surminski explains. Her The team shared their findings Risk Assessment in 2017. recommendations prompted the UK and recommendations with insurers, Between 2009 and 2015, Sam government to revise the underpinning policymakers and regulators in Fankhauser was a member of the CCC’s legislation for Flood Re to take account England and the rest of Europe. Adaptation Sub-Committee, which was of climate change impacts. Asked by the Bank of England to take up the role of visiting academic in 2015, Dr Surminski contributed to the Bank’s first report on climate change impacts, which raised the question of who should pay to bridge the widening gap between the cost of the flood insurance the UK needs and the insurance that is currently in place. The report had a powerful impact. For example, Chinese officials engaged with Dr Surminski over questions of fairness, and twice she presented evidence to the Irish Parliament to inform their debates about flood insurance and adaptation, including refinement of Ireland’s Flood Insurance Bill.

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Communicating climate change risks: championing evidence and challenging misinformation

The Grantham Research Institute Professor Stern’s influence as a has actively promoted information communicator has won him several to policymakers and the public accolades including the Stephen about the risks of climate change, H. Schneider Award for Outstanding and has vigorously rebutted Climate Science Communication attacks from so-called ‘sceptics’ in 2013, with the panel recognising who oppose efforts to reduce that “few people have impacted the greenhouse gas emissions. discussion of economics of carbon pollution more”. Three years later the Since its creation, the Institute has Political Studies Association awarded been very active in making evidence Professor Stern ‘Best Use of Evidence on climate change more accessible, Jerry Brown, Governor of California, awards the by a Politician’ for his “robust approach particularly to policymakers and the Stephen H. Schneider award to Nicholas Stern leading up to, during, and following public, and in combating inaccurate the Paris Climate Change Conference and misleading claims by climate past 10 years, and has written in late 2015, acknowledged as being an change ‘sceptics’. As a result of its many influential newspaper articles. important part of a significant global actions, the Institute has gained a For instance, he was invited to write diplomatic achievement”. worldwide reputation as a champion an opinion article that led the front Other members of the Institute of evidence-based policymaking on page of The Guardian in February have also emphasised the importance climate change. 2014 to stress the urgent need for an of presenting evidence accurately. Nicholas Stern, has been a prolific international agreement on climate During the final preparation of the communicator through speeches, change. The many other newspapers Fifth Assessment Report by the presentations and the media. He Professor Stern has written for range Intergovernmental Panel on Climate has been interviewed regularly by from the Miami Herald to the South Change, the Institute’s policy and the international media over the China Morning Post. communications director, Bob Ward,

Scientists challenge work of climate change dissenter Channel 4 News, 4 April 2014 Nicholas Stern: cost of global warming ‘is worse than I feared’ Lawson’s climate-sceptic The Observer, 6 November 2016 group hit by charity status row BBC News, 16 July 2014 Good chance Trump won’t

The headlines on these pages show a small sample end up withdrawing from Paris of reporting on the Institute’s work. CNBC, 7 July 2017

16 GRANTHAM RESEARCH INSTITUTE AT 10 ANALYSIS, ENGAGEMENT, LEADERSHIP

Greenhouse gases Nicholas Stern: Spend billions on green predicted to peak investments now to reverse economic earlier than pledged downturn and halt climate change China Daily, 9 June 2015 The Guardian, 11 February 2000 British Press Watchdog Says Climate Change Article Was Faulty British scientists to Theresa May: The New York Times, 16 September 2017 Urge Trump to support climate research The Washington Post, 16 January 2017 World leaders must act faster on climate change Financial Times, 29 September 2013 intervened as a reviewer to stop the to UK Prime Minister Theresa May adjudication that the newspaper inclusion of an erroneous conclusion in advance of her first meeting with had breached editorial standards that economic studies show moderate President Trump. The letter, which on accuracy. global warming to be beneficial overall. was widely reported by media in the The Institute has used its website The role of evidence is now more US and UK, drew attention to the and many other channels to explain crucial than ever. As the world takes dangers of political interference the main issues around climate change stock of progress towards the goals in climate research. in an accessible way. In 2012, the Institute worked in collaboration with “The Institute challenges attempts by some in the media The Guardian newspaper to produce ‘the ultimate climate change FAQ’, to mislead the public.” which aimed to ‘amass the world’s best layman-friendly online guide of the Paris Agreement, policymakers The Institute supports accurate media to all aspects of climate change’. are also under pressure from small reporting on climate change, including, The Institute’s own website features but vocal groups of climate change for instance, through sessions at expert commentaries on topical issues, ‘sceptics’. “In the UK there is a the UK and European conferences including rebuttals of false claims very active campaign by lobbying of science journalists. It also challenges about climate change by politicians organisations and by their allies in the attempts by some in the media to and the media. media to mislead policymakers and mislead the public about the risks of The Institute’s efforts to promote the public about climate change,” climate change. For example, a report informed public and policy discussions says Bob Ward. And in the United in a Mail on Sunday article in February about effective management of States, particularly since the election 2017 falsely alleged major misconduct climate change risks have paid off, of President Trump, strong efforts during the preparation of a US research according to Mr Ward. “We have been have been made to undermine the paper on the so-called ‘hiatus’ in successful in debunking many false evidence. In January 2017, Mr Ward global warming. Mr Ward made claims about climate change, but there helped to organise a letter from 100 a complaint about the article to the is no room for complacency and we members of the UK’s climate research UK’s Independent Press Standards must continue to battle so that the community, expressing solidarity with Organisation which eventually resulted public and policymakers have access their counterparts in the United States, in the publication of an official to robust and reliable information.”

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World-class research, academic impact and events

Awards to senior staff The Grantham Research Institute has built up an international team of talented academic researchers from across multiple disciplines. The World and associates Bank has described the Institute as having ‘the largest and strongest group Professor Nicholas Stern was most of environmental economists in the world’1 and assessors from the Economic recently made Companion of Honour and Social Research Council have rated the research achievements of the in the Queen’s Birthday Honours in ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy (CCCEP), which is June 2017 for services to economics, hosted by the Institute and the University of Leeds, as ‘excellent’. international relations and climate change. He was President of the The Institute’s events programme reflects the rigour and cross-disciplinary British Academy between 2013 nature of its academic work and has attracted many inspiring, world-class and 2017. In 2014 he was elected speakers from different spheres to deliver keynote speeches. as a Fellow of the Royal Society in recognition of his work challenging These pages provide a snapshot of highlights from the past 10 years. the world view on the economics of climate change and for his distinguished career in mathematical economics with involvement in Prestigious events James Hansen, Patricia Espinosa, industry and in government. Scott Barrett, Michael Greenstone, Professor Judith Rees was awarded and speakers Judith Rodin and Hans-Werner Sinn. the title of Dame Commander (DBE) High-profile speakers the Institute Among the conferences the Institute in 2013 for her services to higher has hosted include Angel Gurría, Fatih has organised, an international education. In 2012 she was elected Birol, Anthony Giddens, Cass Sunstein, meeting to mark the 10th anniversary as the first woman President of Jeffrey Sachs, Catherine McKenna, of the publication of The Economics Royal Geographical Society (with of Climate Change: The Stern Review the Institute of British Geographers), stands out. Hosted in London in a role she fulfilled until 2015. 2016 with CCCEP, it took stock of the Professor Simon Dietz was made extraordinary changes taking place a fellow of the Royal Society of the in the global economy and sought Arts in 2016. His awards include to guide the development of research a teaching prize for outstanding and policy about delivering the global teaching performance from the agenda created by the Paris Agreement LSE in 2014, and several prizes and Sustainable Development for papers (see opposite). Goals. Following a keynote lecture Dr Misato Sato was awarded from Professor Stern, speakers from the Economic and Social Research finance, industry, international Council’s Future Research Leaders institutions and government gave grant for 2016–2018. speeches, including Debra Roberts Jeremy Grantham was named (IPCC), Sir Suma Chakrabarti a Commander of the Order of the (European Bank for Reconstruction British Empire (CBE) in 2016. The and Development), Rachel Kyte previous year Jeremy Grantham (UN Special Representative), Dr Vítor and his wife Hanne, who together Patricia Espinosa, Executive Secretary of Gaspar (International Monetary Fund), co-founded the Grantham the United Nations Framework Convention Professor Laurence Tubiana (French Foundation for the Protection on Climate Change, gives a speech in ambassador and special representative of the Environment, the Institute’s February 2017, entitled ‘Climate change: for the Paris Conference), and Paul lead donor, were honoured with from challenge to opportunity’ (Photo: LSE) Polman (Unilever). the Carnegie Medal of Philanthropy.

18 1 Interview during the 2013 mid-term review of CCCEP. GRANTHAM RESEARCH INSTITUTE AT 10 ANALYSIS, ENGAGEMENT, LEADERSHIP

Awards for academic “The Grantham Research Institute publishing is one of the world’s Staff at all levels, and PhD students, leading research publish in the world’s leading centres focused on economics, environmental and social global environmental science journals. These include the problems generally, and climate Journal of Environmental Economics change in particular. Its outstanding and Management, Journal of the • Antony Millner and Simon staff of highly-qualified researchers Association of Environmental and Dietz (with Geoffrey Heal) have produced fundamental work Resource Economists, the Review won the European Association on a variety of important topics – for of Economics and Statistics, Global of Environmental and Resource example, the economic and social Environmental Change, Climatic Economists (EAERE) award impacts of climate change, the Change, Nature Climate Change, for outstanding publication in role of technology in transitioning Proceedings of the National Academy the journal Environmental and to lower emissions, the relationship of Sciences, Economics and Philosophy Resource Economics in 2013. between the environment and and Risk Analysis. • In 2013 Antony Millner received economic growth and development, Several staff are editors or editorial the CESIfo Distinguished and alternative approaches to advisers for international journals. Affiliate prize, which is awarded reaching international climate Notably, under Declan Conway’s to young economists by the agreements. The considerable editorship, the journal Global economic research group CESIfo volume of research has contributed Environmental Change was ranked Group Munich. enormously to our understanding as the highest impact journal in the • Former research officer Hélia of the environment and the design environmental sciences. Professor Costa won the Italian Association of environmental policy.” Conway is now on the journal’s of Environmental and Resources Professor Robert S. Pindyck, international editorial board, along Economists (IAERE) Young MIT Sloan School of Management with Professor Sam Fankhauser, who Environmental Economist is also an editorial board member of Award 2016. Climate Policy and Global Sustainability. • Jonathan Colmer, a former PhD “Within the remarkably Professor Simon Dietz is a co-editor student at the Institute, received short period of 10 of the Journal of the Association of the FEEM award for best young years the Grantham Environmental and Resource Economists, economist (sponsored by the Research Institute the world’s leading environmental Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei) has established itself economics journal. from the European Economic as a premier centre Institute staff and students that Association in 2013. for the study of the economics of have won awards for papers and • Tobias Ketterer, a post-doctoral climate change. Its star researchers publications include: researcher, was awarded the have used economic theory to • Simon Dietz and Alec Morton 2014 Epainos young scientist develop the grammar of policy received the Best Paper Award 2011 prize from the European Regional in an astonishingly fertile manner.” from the Society for Risk Analysis. Science Association. Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, Frank Ramsey Emeritus Professor of Economics, University Grantham Research Institute website of Cambridge recognised for research impact The Institute uses many channels to communicate its findings and its website won the Market Research Society award for policy/social research in 2015. This is an award that recognises the impact of research on the understanding of issues relating to, and decision-making within, the public policy and/or social arena. The judging panel acknowledged the success of the website, then recently redesigned, in increasing the Institute’s engagement with policymakers.

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10 minutes on 10 years with… Judith Rees

Judith Rees is currently the vice- chair of the Grantham Research Institute, having been one of its directors from 2008 until 2015. She was also director of the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy during its first phase from 2008 to 2012. Her distinguished academic career includes appointments as acting director of the LSE What was the impetus for What made LSE the right place (May 2011–September 2012) establishing the Grantham for the Institute? and president of the Royal Research Institute? Geographical Society (with the LSE was well placed to create the Institute of British Geographers) By 2005 it was becoming apparent interdisciplinary teams that would (2012–2015). She served on the that research on the social science be essential if social science was to UN Secretary General’s Advisory of climate change was lagging contribute to the step change needed to Board on Water and Sanitation, behind the physical science. As a address the challenge of climate change. which was concerned with the world-leading research institution No single disciplinary perspective could implementation of the Millennium for the social sciences, LSE felt that provide all the answers. Initially, the Development Goals, from its it had some responsibility to help climate change network involved inception in 2004 until the end rectify that situation. It therefore collaboration between three established of its mission in 2016. Professor created a small interdisciplinary LSE research centres: the Centre for Rees was awarded the title of network of researchers to develop Environmental Policy and Governance Commander of the Order of the research ideas and explore funding (Geography), the Centre for the Analysis British Empire (CBE) in 2006 and opportunities. This group was vastly of Time Series (Statistics) and the Centre was made Dame Commander strengthened by the appointment for Economic Performance (Economics), (DBE) in 2013. of Nicholas Stern, and of Simon Dietz, but we were able to pull in further who had worked on The Economics experts from International Relations, of Climate Change: The Stern Review. Philosophy and Law. With seed funding The public and political reactions from LSE, we began to develop a to the Stern Review convinced us programme of work which we could that the time was right to try to present to potential funders. launch a major initiative on climate In 2007, the Economic and Social change and the environment. Research Council (ESRC) announced

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that it would hold a centre competition in advising policy- and decision-makers We have seen the profound with climate change as one of its at the global and UK national levels. consequences that economic funding priorities. We made contact Nick Stern’s reputation undoubtedly transitions like deindustrialisation can with colleagues in the School of Earth has been important in some of this have on populations. The transition to and Environmental Sciences at the work but the work of Bob Ward, leading a low-carbon economy has begun and University of Leeds, where staff had our policy and communications team, it is increasingly urgent to find effective strengths in the climate sciences, has considerably amplified the impact policy solutions now so that the climate impacts, adaptation and of our academic outputs. continuing transition can be achieved vulnerability, and experience of working in a fair and just way. in developing countries: strengths that How do you see the work of the There is also space for further work on complemented those of the LSE team. Institute developing in the future, how governments can best finance the While developing the joint research particularly in relation to pressing transition, and on the role of the private programme for the ESRC, we global challenges? sector. The Institute adds value by approached other funders as potential moving beyond hypothetical scenarios partners in the venture. This led us I see continuing and deepening our to providing practical, evidence-based to the Grantham Foundation, which work in addressing the agenda set recommendations. expressed interest in establishing a new by the Sustainable Development In terms of the way we conduct institute. Together we made successful Goals as vitally important. Common research, first, the problems we want to bids to the ESRC, and to German themes including climate change and address continue to be multidisciplinary. reinsurer Munich Re, and we established water issues cut across many of the We want to broaden our expertise the Institute with the Centre for Goals. We have long recognised the further still, to include more researchers Climate Change Economics and Policy importance of the inter-relationships from law, sociology, international as an integral part [see p12]. The between environmental problems, relations and politics. Staff from these Institute’s main initial research focus resource security and sustainability disciplines can bolster our qualitative was on mitigation of climate change issues – which is why ‘environment’ research approaches in particular. but as it became increasingly evident is included in the Institute’s name. Second, we need to continue that warming was inevitable, research and expand our collaborative expanded to include adaptation. We work with governments, institutions also increased research on a wider “The Institute adds value by and other groups, nationally and range of environmental issues. moving beyond hypothetical internationally, to jointly produce scenarios to providing solutions to climate change and What particularly stands out practical, evidence-based other environmental challenges. We have a once-in-a-generation for you in terms of the reputation recommendations.” the Institute has developed? opportunity to get this right.

The Institute’s reputation for research is particularly gratifying: we have really elevated the quality of applied environmental economics compared with earlier work in that field. Our staff and associates form one of the largest and best groups of environmental economists anywhere in the world. And through hiring early- career researchers we have started to improve the talent pool in social science work on climate change. The Institute was founded very explicitly with an impact agenda: a mission to disseminate the conclusions of our work to decision- makers in governments, international Two women remove weeds in a plot in Wendu Bosseabe village, Senegal, institutions and business globally. part of the PRISE study area (see p13). Judith Rees views work on sustainable The Institute has an excellent record development as vitally important. (Photo: Lancelot Ehode – ICD Afrique/PRISE)

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Supporting career progression

The Grantham Research Institute has been privileged to train a range of talented researchers and PhD students over the years, whose careers have, in turn, gained from their time at the Institute. “I’m currently an Assistant Professorial These pages present a snapshot Research Fellow at the Institute, and of just five research students lead the Policy Design and Evaluation and staff who have developed research group, having initially joined their work in particularly Grantham in 2008 as one of the interesting and influential Institute’s first PhD students. The directions. The Institute Institute really has offered a lively and has trained and educated inspirational environment, conducive several cohorts through PhD to advancing my research interests and studentships and its Executive career. My research spans across topics Summer School, as well as on the implementation and impacts of its contribution to Masters climate and energy policies, and I have “The Institute supported me to deepen courses within LSE. received tremendous support here, to and broaden my technical skills, gave publish widely on these topics, conduct me space to innovate, and diverse policy work and also attract funding. experiences working with governments, I currently hold an ESRC Future multilaterals and the private sector Research Leaders award as Principal all over the world. The skills, networks Investigator, and from this autumn, and experience gained created a I will be taking up a new role as the foundation to accelerate my career. deputy director of CCCEP as it At Grantham, I was obsessed with transitions to its next phase.” helping societies better manage the risks of disasters and my passion Misato Sato, assistant professorial is unchanged! In 2013, the Institute research fellow, Grantham supported me to take a secondment Research Institute at the Department for International Development, which led on to a permanent job, and in 2016, to my current role as senior adviser on disaster risk financing and insurance, leading a team to deliver a major new policy agenda. Almost daily I draw upon the toolkit of skills that the Grantham Research Institute gave me.“ Nicola Ranger, senior adviser, UK Department for International Development

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“Not only were the four years I spent “My time at Grantham had an doing my PhD at the Grantham important impact on my academic Research Institute some of the most career. The interdisciplinary nature of intellectually stimulating and rewarding the Institute is inspiring and conducive I have known, but they also directly to producing top academic research contributed to my subsequent career that led to subsequent careers at path. The Institute’s reputation Yale and Princeton. Although the directly opened doors into a private ‘Behaviour’ stream wasn’t formally consultancy position in London, as active yet at the time, I was one well as extending internationally to of the first students interested in my current role investigating New this area. What’s remarkable is that Zealand’s transition to a low-emissions the Institute still gave me the space, economy. My extended Grantham resources and support to flourish network has also been immensely in this field. In addition, the support valuable – personally knowing so many I received from my LSE colleagues, of the key people working in climate especially my brilliant adviser, Richard change economics and policy has “The Grantham Research Institute Perkins, really helped shape me into made a massive difference to being provided a unique, interdisciplinary the scholar I am today.” able to stay at the cutting edge of setting with strong links to climate Sander van der Linden, knowledge in this area.” change policymakers in which to director, Cambridge Social write a high-quality, impact-oriented Amelia Sharman, principal adviser, Decision-Making Laboratory PhD on the strategic management New Zealand Productivity Commission of multilateral climate, trade and biosafety negotiations, and on how the negotiation process has a significant effect on outcomes. The Institute allowed me to carry out in-depth field research to dive deeply into the psychological dynamics of major global summits. Based on this research, I founded the Center for Multilateral Negotiations to assist in some of the most important global climate and trade negotiations, including the Paris Agreement.” Kai Monheim, CEO, Egger Philips Hamburg GmbH

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A last word from… Jeremy Grantham CBE

Dear Friends, As important, the Institute has been energetically engaging decision-makers Humans are facing the race of to try to make it as difficult as possible our lives. Our destructive behaviour to ignore the results of their rigorous and reckless use of resources and independent research on important natural systems, with accelerating scientific, economic and policy issues, climate damage, is hurtling us ranging from carbon pricing to the towards disaster. But we might structure of international agreements. just be saved by accelerating Above all else, the Institute has technological progress. championed evidence and reason over Climate change is already having ideology, vested interest and dogma. impacts across the world and if it It is a sign of the times that such an carries on unchecked, could be an approach has often caused controversy. existential threat to life on Earth. Despite the many successes The huge risks can only be managed documented in this publication, there if individuals, communities, businesses is still much more for the Institute and governments in every country to do. The election of Donald Trump act strongly and quickly to reduce means not only that the United their emissions of greenhouse gases States may withdraw from the Paris and to make themselves more resilient Agreement, but also that those who to those consequences that cannot oppose action on climate change have now be avoided. been emboldened in their efforts to The Paris Agreement set goals that, obfuscate and obstruct. if achieved, would allow the world The Institute must continue to to avoid dangerous climate change. produce world class research and policy While many countries are working hard analysis to inform decision-making at to implement the Agreement, those local, national and international level. with vested interests in maintaining It must challenge those who present the status quo are using every means fake trade-offs between the economy to slow down progress. and the environment, or between I am pleased that the Grantham prosperity and responsibility. And it Research Institute has been working must help the public and policymakers tirelessly over the past 10 years to distinguish between facts and to show a way ahead that is not a fictions about climate change. simple extension of the past century In short, it must do everything it of ruinous fossil fuel use. It has shown can to ensure that we win the race that economics and social science, of our lives. when applied in a thoughtful and robust way, can offer solutions to Yours, the stark set of problems we face. Jeremy Grantham CBE

24 A ‘thank you’ from the Institute

The Grantham Research Institute and the ESRC Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy gratefully acknowledge the funding and support that has been received over the past 10 years, including from:

• British Academy • Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment • Department for International Development (UK) • International Development Research Centre (Canada) • Economic and Social Research Council (UK) • Marc Stuart and Sheryl Gorchow-Stuart • Environment Agency (UK) and the Church of England • MAVA Fondation pour la Nature Pensions Board • Munich Re • Environmental Defense Fund • Nacional Financiera • Environmental Protection Agency (Ireland) • Natural Environment Research Council (UK) • European Climate Foundation • Principles for Responsible Investment • European Commission • Statkraft • European Investment Bank • Stiftung Mercator • Global Green Growth Institute • Swiss National Science Foundation

25 Support the Grantham Research Institute

Since its inception in 2008, the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment has established a world-leading reputation for research and policy analysis on environmental problems, with a particular emphasis on climate change.

To learn more about joining the charitable foundations, businesses, government agencies and multilateral institutions that have supported the Institute’s work since it was founded, please contact Sam Fankhauser, director: [email protected]

Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment London School of Economics and Political Science Houghton Street London WC2A 2AE UK

Tel +44 (0)20 7107 5027 / (0)20 7107 5440 Email [email protected] @GRI_LSE www.lse.ac.uk/GranthamInstitute

Project management and editing: Georgina Kyriacou Writing: Henry Rummins, Georgina Kyriacou, Victoria Druce Design: RF Design