The Impact of Brownfield Regeneration on Neighbourhood Dynamics: the Case of Salford Quays in England

Home , BBC London, BBC Trust, Langworthy (ward), Manchester Docks, Ordsall (ward), Salford Quays

TPR, 89 (5) 2018 https://doi.org/10.3828/tpr.2018.33

Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics: the case of Salford Quays in England

Reusing brownfield land has been a key element of planning and regeneration policy in England for many years. While many sites are small and of local importance, there are a few major sites where reuse is expected to bring jobs and economic opportunities to a wider area. There has been a lack of longitudinal study that tracks the impact of such large-scale regeneration projects on neighbouring areas. This is partly due to data limitations and the short-term nature of most government-funded evaluation studies. One such site is Salford Quays, a canal harbour area in Greater Manchester, which fell derelict in the early 1980s. Since then a range of regeneration activities has taken place in the area, including the more recent strategic decision to locate part of the BBC’s broadcasting operations on the site as part of MediaCityUK. This paper aims to analyse the extent to which this investment has had a beneficial effect, with a focus on its workplace dynamics and social sustainability, on the regenerated area and its neighbouring areas, which are amongst the most deprived areas in England. The analysis uses a range of socio-economic indicators as well as innovative commuting-flow typologies to establish the spatial dynamics.

Keywords: Salford Quays, brownfield regeneration, commuting flows, deprivation, neighbourhood change

Introduction The image of Margaret Thatcher’s famous ‘walk in the wilderness’ on the devastated landscape of the banks of the river Tees in 1987 (Harrison, 2010) epitomised the chronic dereliction problem of many northern industrial cities in Britain. However, it was not until the late 1990s that the policy of regenerating vacant and derelict land became part of a more comprehensive brownfield development strategy. The emphasis on brownfield development is not just about regenerating individual sites and their immediate neighbourhoods, but also about the wider policy context of adopting a more sustainable spatial-development approach (Spaans et al., 2011). The notion of bringing people back to towns and cities by removing environmental degra- dation (HM Government, 2005) and exploiting untapped ‘urban capacity’ (Barker, 2003; English Partnerships, 2003) is seen as a politically appealing solution. Previous studies, mostly relying on qualitative data and case studies, tended to focus on examining barriers and drivers of brownfield regeneration (e.g. Adams and

Andreas Schulze Bäing is Lecturer in Urban Planning and Cecilia Wong is Professor of Spatial Planning, both at the Department of Planning and Environmental Management and the Manchester Urban Institute, the University of Manchester, Oxford Road, Manchester, M13 9PL, UK; email: [email protected]; Cecilia. [email protected] 514 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

Watkins, 2009; Dixon et al., 2006; Wernstedt et al., 2006). By examining residential development, Schulze Bäing and Wong (2012) performed longitudinal statistical analysis of the relationship between brownfield development and changes in house price and economic deprivation indicators across deprived areas of different types in England. Despite these efforts, knowledge of housing and employment impacts are restricted to site level and little is known about the wider changing spatial impacts over time (Schulze Bäing, 2010). This is partly due to the short-term nature of most government-funded evaluation studies and partly due to the difficulty in obtaining small-area data to establish an evidence base (Wong, 2006). More importantly, spatial- policy intervention is not bounded by time or space and is therefore more difficult to assess (Rae and Wong, 2012). Salford Quays, formerly known as Salford Docks, were part of Manchester Docks, which fell derelict in the early 1980s. Since then a range of regeneration activities has taken place in the area, with the more recent strategic relocation of part of the BBC’s broadcasting operations on the site of MediaCityUK. It was one of the earliest and largest urban regeneration projects in Britain following the closure of the dockyards in 1982. Given the lack of longitudinal analysis in the literature of the wider spatial impact of large-scale regeneration projects, this paper aims to analyse the extent to which such flagship brownfield regeneration projects have long-term beneficial effects on the regenerated area and its neighbouring areas, which are amongst the most deprived in England. To achieve this, the paper analyses small-area data on deprivation and workplace population structure from the UK census and applies an innovative typology of commuting data based on the 2011 census. After this introduction, the next section provides a discussion of the relationship between ‘flagship’ urban regeneration projects and neighbourhood change. The development context and policy history of Salford Quays’ regeneration initiative is then examined. The penultimate section explores the spatial effects brought about by the redevelopment of Salford Quays, with a focus on its workplace dynamics and social sustainability, by analysing socio-economic indicators and an innovative commuting flow typology to establish spatial dynamics. The final section provides some discussion and the conclusion.

‘Flagship’ urban regeneration projects and neighbourhood dynamics The pace of urban change in Britain has intensified since the 1980s as the sheer scale of socio-economic problems encountered in many urban areas was exposed during the deep recession of the early 1980s. The compact urban growth charac- teristics established during the Industrial Revolution were challenged by the use of modern transport, which has made decentralisation from large cities possible (Hall The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 515

and Breheny, 1996). With the encouragement of the government’s massive slum clearance programme in inner-city locations in the 1960s and 1970s (Yelling, 2000), there were mass flows of migration to new towns, expanded towns and overspill sites (Diamond, 1991). It is the socio-economic inertia and industrial structure (Begg, 2002) left from this historic change that continuously impacts upon the performance of many northern industrial cities (Robson et al., 2000; Swinney and Sivaev, 2013). The combination of population decline, changes in manufacturing production methods among the surviving inner-city industries and the major shift of city employment from manufacturing to services has created a complicated skills mismatch between local residents and the new employment opportunities (Robson et al., 2000). With the demise of traditional industries, industrial inertia meant that textile mills and warehouses were left lying derelict for decades. The physical fabric was obsolete and unable to accommodate modern office usage without requiring a great deal of capital to carry out appropriate conversion. The problems of economic decline, physical decay and social disintegration have combined to create multiple forms of deprivation and social exclusion which means certain residents are prevented from entering fully into mainstream normal life (Boddy, 2002). A whole suite of area-based programmes was introduced by central government in the 1980s and 1990s – including urban programmes, urban development corporations, city grants, derelict land grants, enterprise zones etc. – to address urban challenges (see Hambleton and Thomas, 1995). Urban regeneration and renewal have been very much focused on problems encountered in city and town centres, in the transitional area between the commercial hub of the city and the suburban neighbourhood, and in particular residential neighbourhoods facing multiple forms of deprivation. The built environment is an important factor influencing investment confidence and projecting place image. Large-scale physical regeneration projects have been discussed critically, particularly when associated with the long-term legacy of temporary mega- events such as world expos (Deng et al., 2016) or Olympic Games (Gold and Gold, 2008). Bennett and Krebs (1991) however, comment that large-scale physical regeneration is often the only way to break the spiral of decline, because businesses tend to hold back from investment in declining areas to avoid exploitation by free-riders. More importantly, physical blight caused by dereliction bears a direct impact on the quality of living of local residents (Wong et al., 1991). It is thus not a surprise to find that the objective of regenerating deprived areas was deeply entrenched in the UK government’s brownfield strategy (Dixon and Adams, 2008) and successive government policies have linked deprivation indicators with physical regeneration (Wong, 2006). In order to attract investment and diversify the economic base to compensate for job losses in manufacturing, cultural regeneration has been used to reconstruct and refine the image of the city through place branding (Kunzman, 2004; Paddison, 1993). The regeneration of signature historic buildings and the physical fabric of a 516 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

site not only serves the designated functions of development (such as an art gallery or museum), but also aims at creating a landmark statement for place repositioning (Landry, 2002). The development of the Guggenheim Museum in Bilbao is a well-cited example, though such developments do not always produce the expected outcomes or provide any stimulus for local cultural creativity (Kavaratzis and Ashworth, 2015). The establishment of cultural or creative districts through urban regeneration could lead to gentrification and the displacement of local residents (Landry, 2002). The cultural producers helping to establish the branding of the place are subsequently driven out by the commercialisation process, as shown in the historic Nanluoguxiang (Shin, 2010) and the 798 Art District in Beijing (Currier, 2008). This discussion highlights that urban regeneration impacts are not easy to disen- tangle as different forces of change are interconnected and impact on each other in the restructuring process. More importantly, initial success in urban regeneration does not necessarily achieve longer-term social and cultural sustainability due to gentrification and displacement of residents and economic activities. These pose challenging policy and methodological questions of how to capture the changing neighbourhood dynamics of flagship regeneration schemes, both spatially and temporally.

Salford Quays: the journey from dirty old town to shiny city

Reputedly the inspiration for Coronation Street, Salford has long been the archetypal Grim Northern Town. Its decline from thriving Victorian industrial centre to urban wasteland meant that little attention was paid to it. Until now, that is … Suddenly the dirty old town has become a shiny new city – and it makes such obvious sense, you wonder why it didn’t happen before. Five minutes from Old Trafford and a stone’s throw from the North’s hippest city centre, it’s a no-brainer. (Davis, 2007) This quotation captures the dramatic transformation of Salford Quays at the turn of the millennium, with the opening of the Lowry Art Gallery as a cultural magnet. This was shortly followed by the opening of the Imperial War Museum in 2002, the first outside south-east England, designed by the deconstructivist architect Daniel Libeskind. The Quays were also used as the venue for the triathlon and race walk events of the 2002 Commonwealth Games. However, there was another cultural turn in 2011, when the first phase of MediaCityUK was completed. The relocation of 26 departments of the BBC in 2011 and the move of the television production of ITV Granada in 2013 have provided a major economic boost to the area. Behind this glamorous makeover is more than a century’s historic legacy and major regeneration effort since the late 1970s. At the end of the nineteenth century, to avoid paying hefty taxes to Liverpool’s dock and railway companies, the Manchester Ship Canal was constructed with the The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 517

capability of accommodating ocean-going ships from the estuary of the river Mersey to Manchester. The Manchester Docks were opened in 1894 and their larger Salford docks comprised the western section, with Trafford Park, the world’s first planned industrial estate, in the south, and Ordsall, a working-class housing estate, in the east. The introduction of container shipping drove the docks into decline in the 1970s, and they were further decimated by recession in the early 1980s. This resulted in a loss of around 25,000 jobs in Trafford Park and physical vacancy and dereliction on over a third of the estate (Struthers, 1997). In 1982 the remaining docks were formally closed, with a loss of 3,000 jobs (Salford City Council, 2008). Since then, the area has undergone three decades of regeneration and transformation with different projects and milestones (see Table 1). The Salford– Trafford Enterprise Zone was set up in the early 1980s to promote development of the site, but few developers were interested in the area. Recognising the importance of the derelict docklands, Salford City Council persuaded the Department of Environment to provide a derelict land grant for it to purchase 220 acres of the docks in 1983 and to fund a rolling reclamation programme. The Council purchased the area in 1984 and published and adopted the Salford Quays Development Plan (SQDP) in 1985 to enable the coordination and implementation of key infrastructure development, water-quality improvement and environmental enhancement of the site. The rapid progress of the public-sector programme during 1986–1991 was supported by central government and European Community funding, which helped to secure investment confidence among the private sector. Later, in 1988, the SQDP was reviewed to include a Metrolink light rail.

Table 1 Key development milestones of Salford Quays

Manchester Docks 1981 The Salford–Trafford Enterprise Zone created before 1985 1982 The remaining docks closed 1984 Purchase of the area by Salford City Council The Salford Quays 1987 Multiplex cinema, Copthorne Hotel and first phases of offices and Development Plan housing opened 1985–1990 1988 Development Strategy Review proposed performing arts centre and Metrolink 1988 Chandlers Canal opened 1989 Masterplan framework and first phase developments completed 1989 Mariners Canal opened 1990 2 new canals and 4 miles of waterfront promenade completed A Cultural Flagship 1992 Masterplan for the Salford Centre became the Lowry 1990–1996 1993 Water achieved bathing quality; the first water sports centre opened 1994 Salford Wharf opened 1994 Lowry funding bids, Lowry Project Team set up 1996 Lottery funding for the Lowry awarded, Lowry Trust established 518 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

The Lowry Project 1997 The Lowry building began 1996–2005 1999 Lowry commercial development under way 1999 Metrolink came to the Quays 2000 The Lowry and new footbridge completed 2000 The Lowry opened 2000 Metrolink continued from the Quays to Eccles 2000 Salford Tourist Information Centre opened 2001 Lowry Designer outlet and cinemas opened 2001 Permanent watersports centre opened 2002 Imperial War Museum opened 2002 Commonwealth Games came to the Quays 2004 Digital World Centre opened Towards a Media City 2005 First occupancy of NV buildings (luxury apartments) 2005–2010 2006 Planning permission granted for MediaCityUK 2007 Construction commenced 2010 BBC relocated 5 departments to the Quays 2010 Metrolink arrived at MediaCityUK

Source: Salford City Council (2008, 21)

The place branding of the Quays and its waterfront regeneration has been very much focused on leisure, culture and media. Unlike other similar heritage- led regeneration projects, only a few of the old dock structures (such as cranes) and the granite were salvaged and reused to retain the cultural links with its industrial heritage. However, the development plan emphasised the development of an exten- sive network of footpaths and the enhancement of environmental quality by planting over 1,500 trees (Struthers, 1997). Though many developments since then, including MediaCityUK, were not part of this plan, it nonetheless provided a blueprint for future regeneration of the docks. The question for any such large-scale brownfield reuse project concerns the extent to which residents in the adjacent neighbourhoods benefit from these new developments. As shown in the outline planning application document for MediaCityUK, the most recent phase in the regeneration of the area, the applicant claimed that the benefits would include the provision of 2,249 new homes in a highly accessible location, the provision of cultural facilities, employment opportunities for 15,500 people, 1,500 trainee posts per year, space for 1,150 creative and related businesses, the provision of leisure and recrea- tion facilities and a contribution of £1.5 billion to the regional economy. The applicants consider that the effects on the local economy would be positive and would be both direct and indirect. They consider that the benefits would be felt in the medium to long term and would be permanent, with some short term benefits with regard to employment generated during construction. (Salford City Council, 2006, 37) The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 519

Despite pointing out that the application did not propose any environmental mitigation measures, provide any affordable housing within the site or provide a financial contribution towards public open space, a recommendation of approval was made on these grounds: The proposals represent an effective use of a previously-developed site within the Regional Centre. The application would assist in securing the redevelopment of what is currently an under-used and generally unattractive site in a highly prominent location within Salford Quays. A broad mix of uses would be proposed within the site and it is envisaged that this development would stimulate the redevelopment of other areas within the mediacity:uk area for similar uses.

… the proposal would involve a significant amount of investment in a number of public realm and infrastructure works, which would be of considerable benefit to not only this site, but the city as a whole and the region in general. (Salford City Council, 2006, 71) With the decline of the Manchester Docks, major socio-economic impacts were to be expected, especially significant job losses, in neighbouring residential areas. Predictably, the area that was most likely to be affected was indeed the adjacent Ordsall neighbourhood, which was first urbanised in the late nineteenth century as the docks were developed. The neighbouring areas of Pendleton/Langworthy to the north and Weaste and Seadley to the north-west of the site also suffered from the spatial restructuring, which was to be expected. According to The Independent (1994), an unemployment rate of 21 per cent was recorded in the Ordsall ward in 1994, and drug-related violence and rioting occurred in the summer of 1992. Despite the regeneration effort in the Quays, in August 2011 youth riots took place in the Pendleton area of Salford, located north of Salford Quays (Jeffery and Jackson, 2012). While there were many different reasons for the riots, such incidents highlight the ongoing challenges with deprivation in these neighbourhoods, especially at a time of economic austerity after the financial crisis. Besides planning for employment, shopping and cultural uses, the SQDP also had residential developments in its blueprint. The early residential developments in the Quays tended to be low-rise flats and townhouses in Grain Wharf and Merchants Quay built in the 1980s and 1990s. High-rise apartment blocks arrived on the scene alongside the opening of the Lowry. The landmark NV Buildings built in 2005–2006 epitomise luxurious high-rise living in the area. A three-bedroom penthouse apartment was adver- tised for over £800,000 (Middleton, 2013). The controversy of gentrification does not stop with Salford Quays; other local-scale regeneration initiatives such as Housing Market Renewal and New Deal for Communities were also at the centre of bitter arguments. The Chimney Pot Park development by regeneration specialist Urban Splash, in the nearby Pendleton/Langworthy area, attracted a lot of press coverage. The conversion of rows of terraced housing into modern stylish townhouses was lamented by Allen 520 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

(2007) as a ‘middle-class makeover’ (Qureshi, 2013) that failed to share local residents’ values. Others argue that, as 30 per cent of the streets were vacant and properties were sold for £10,000, the redevelopment would improve the living environment of working- class families (Qureshi, 2013). However, the gentrifi cation dreams of other nearby areas were shattered by the 2007 fi nancial crisis. According to Wallace (2014), Many of those residents are still there; not because they have defeated the forces of gentrifi cation, but because those forces went into abeyance. A neighbourhood restructure was started, but stalled and stopped, resulting in a decimated landscape of semi-eviction and part-transformation.

Restructuring Salford Quays and neighbourhood change: 1980s–2010s After three decades of regeneration, Salford Quays has been transformed from a derelict dockland to a shiny modern cityscape. The public sector has been the major impetus behind the process by providing a strategic planning framework and fi nancial resources to carry out large-scale infrastructural and reclamation works. The approval of the MediaCityUK planning application was couched on the developer’s promise of bringing major socio-economic benefi ts to the wider area beyond the site. It is time to take stock of the spatial impacts brought to the area since the 1980s.

Methodology A number of statistical indicators and mapping analyses are used in this study to trace socio-economic change in the regenerated Salford Quays and its adjacent deprived neighbourhoods since the early 1980s. The challenge of any such longitudinal study is twofold: the lack of consistent time-series data and the changing boundaries of the spatial unit of analysis. This means that we have had to resort to the use of population census data and therefore examined changes up to 2011, the year of the last census. The analyses focus on examining workplace dynamics and the social sustainability of the area. For workplace analysis, census special workplace statistics were used to identify the changing structure and volume of the workforce in the area. This was analysed and mapped to identify locations from where workers with diff erent socio- economic traits commute. The novel classifi cation of travel-to-work fl ows, developed by the authors and others (Hincks et al., 2017), was analysed and mapped to identify where workers with diff erent socio-economic traits commute from. For social sustainability analysis, the offi cial Indices of Multiple Deprivation were used to ascertain the spatial distribution and temporal change of deprivation, and Land Registry data was used to track house price changes in the area. The impact of brownfi eld regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 521

With regard to the boundary change of statistical units, Figure 1 shows that, in 1981, Ward No. 11 included the Salford part of the docks and the housing area of Langworthy, while Ward No. 10 covered the Ordsall area. In 1991 and 2001 the ward boundaries changed again, with the Ordsall ward covering what is now the Salford Quays and Langworthy created as a separate ward. In the 2001 and 2011 censuses, the new Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) was used to report statistics. In this paper, GIS analysis was used to overcome the boundary issues as far as possible to allow meaningful comparison over time.

Figure 1 Boundary changes of statistical units of analysis, 1981–2011 Source: EDINA Digimap, © Crown Copyright and Database Right 2017. Ordnance Survey (Digimap Licence) 522 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

Workplace dynamics: employment structure and commuting flows The total workplace population shrank to fewer than 700 people just before the closure of the docks in the early 1980s. During the early regeneration planning stage, the number slowly climbed up to over 1,100 in 1991. As shown in Table 2, at the time, most workers were engaged in skilled manual and non-manual jobs and very few in professional and higher managerial occupations. Following the opening of the water sports centre, the Salford Wharf and the Lowry Art Gallery, and with the arrival of the Metrolink light rail, there was a major transformation in terms of the total number and socio-economic profile of the working population as recorded by the 2001 census. The total number of working population rose to 18,222 people, an increase of 16.5 times over 1991. More importantly, the occupation profile of employment in the area dramatically shifted to professional and higher managerial jobs (over 2,800), which were nearly absent in the previous two decades. A major shift was also found in lower managerial, technical and intermediate jobs, from 327 in 1991 to 9,881 in 2001.

Table 2 Workplace population in the Salford Quays Area, 1981–2011

1981 1991 2001 2011 Professional & higher managerial 28 43 2,815 3,022 Lower managerial & technical/ 129 327 9,881 10,349 intermediate Skilled manual & non-manual 332 538 2,050 1,919 Partly skilled (semi-routine) 128 137 1,965 1,680 Unskilled (routine) 78 52 1,511 1,787 TOTAL 696 1,103 18,222 18,757

Source: Population censuses 1981–2011 Note: Due to change of spatial boundaries and the shift of definitions from social classes in 1981 and 1991 to standard occupational classification in 2001 and 2011, the figures provided are based on best estimations to illustrate the scale of change rather than a precise comparison

The growth of the workforce in the area since then has been steady, with 535 extra new jobs recorded in the 2011 census. Indeed, about half (207) of the new positions were professional and managerial. Despite the opening of the Lowry outlet and cinema complex, the Imperial War Museum and the Digital World Centre at the start of the millennium, the slower job growth was partly affected by the 2007 global financial crisis. It is noted that, compared to the 2.94 per cent workplace population growth over this period in Salford Quays, the growth in the district of Salford (10.56 per cent) and Greater Manchester (10.79 per cent) was much higher (as calculated based on NOMIS data). MediaCityUK was opened in 2010 with the extension of the Metrolink and the relocation of the BBC, but these new developments might not be fully captured in the The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 523

2011 census. According to the National Audit Office (NAO, 2013), the relocation of various BBC operations from London to Salford was partly based on the argument that it would provide socio-economic benefits to the region, including up to 15,000 jobs. The NAO report pointed out that a total of 2,300 BBC staff were working at Salford at the end of 2012: of these, only 39 jobs were recruited from Salford and 215 from other areas in Greater Manchester, whereas 854 were relocated from outside the Greater Manchester region (with 574 from BBC London). The report also observed that the BBC planned to move an additional 1,000 posts to Salford by 2016. However, according to MediaCityUK’s current website, the BBC staff number is 2,700, which is only 400 more than the 2012 figure. Whilst the relocation of some BBC services has brought further employment and economic opportunities to Salford Quays and the wider region, these opportunities (which tend to be at a lower level than that which was promised) are largely taken up by workers relocating from elsewhere outside Greater Manchester. It is thus important to unmask the aggregate employment figures to pin down whether the newly created employment opportunities really benefit local residents, especially those in the adjacent deprived neighbourhoods. Since brownfield regeneration aims to provide a sustainable development strategy, the spatial patterns of commuting can shed light on this. The analysis is based on the novel classification of commuting flows devised by Hincks et al. (2017). This brand new geodemographic classification was based on origin–destination commuting-flow data from the 2011 census, using 89 demographic and socio-economic variables, for England and Wales. Each commuting flow of six or more commuters between MSOAs in England and Wales was analysed. The classification produces a ninefold typology: (1) consumer services; (2) typical blue-collar traits; (3) sustainable sorts; (4) supporting society; (5) friendly faces; (6) the nurturers; (7) traders, movers and makers; (8) high flyers; and (9) techs and the city types. A detailed description of the classification and the nine super-groups is available on the project website at http://www.commute-flow.net/classification.html. Mapping analysis of commuting flows into Salford Quays is shown in Figures 2 and 3.1 The maps highlight the fact that workers in Salford Quays are commuting from the Greater Manchester city-region and beyond. Of the 16,646 inflows to Salford Quays, over half are in the supporting society group (51.5 per cent) and the commuting origins stretch to Merseyside, Lancashire and Cheshire. This reflects the nature of the newly created employment following the economic restructuring: the majority of the jobs are for white-collar workers commuting from different parts of the North West region. The next major commuting group is sustainable sorts (13.7 per cent) who use sustainable transport modes (e.g. cycling, walking or public transport) to work. This shows some very interesting spatial patterns as they either live locally (walking or cycling) or commute from far away (probably by train).

1 We used MSOA 28 as the analytical spatial point. 524 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

Figure 2 Inward commuting flows to Salford Quays by geodemographic classification, 2011 Source: www.commute-flows.net

Figure 3 Commuting flows towards Salford Quays: consumer services, sustainable sorts, high flyers and supporting society, 2011 (clockwise from top left) Source: www.commute-flows.net The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 525

The third main group of workers are those in consumer services (12.5 per cent). Many of them are commuting from adjacent neighbourhoods, with the largest being a flow of 401 workers from Weaste and Seadley, followed by 237 from Blackfriars and 223 from the western part of Langworthy (including the Chimney Pot Park housing). However, only 161 commuters travel from the eastern part of Langworthy, which is still one of the most deprived areas in the country. The final major commuter group is the high flyers (10.11 per cent). The 1,683 flows of high flyers exhibit very diffuse spatial patterns of commuting and, in comparison with other groups, they have by far the longest commutes across the North West region.

Social sustainability: deprivation and house price changes Other than examining the changing composition of Salford Quays’ working population, it is important to understand the socio-economic situation of local residents. The official Indices of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) provide detailed small-area analysis of different aspects of deprivation, though any time analysis can only show an area’s change in relative position rather than its absolute performance (Smith et al., 2015). According to the 2015 Index, Salford is ranked as the sixteenth-most-deprived local authority in England, in terms of the proportion (28.7 per cent) of neighbourhoods falling within the most-deprived decile nationally, which is a 4 percentage point (3 ranks) improvement from the 2010 Index (DCLG, 2015). Deprivation in Salford is very much concentrated on income and the employment problems of its neighbourhoods, with a respective deprivation rank of fifteenth and nineteenth nationally. The place suffers less severely from other forms of deprivation such as housing, education, crime and living environment when compared against the national context.

Table 3 IMD ranks for areas around Salford Quays, 2004–2015

IMD IMD IMD IMD 2004 2007 2010 2015 Western part of the Quaysa (the Lowry and 10,946ab 11,983ab 16,456ab 13,439a b MediaCityUK ) 24,254b Ordsall neighbourhood 165 89 399 973

Area along Trafford Roadc (first part of development 1,740cd 2,086cd 3,651cd 2,241c d along docks and Exchange Quays ) 19,686d Most eastern part of Ordsall ward, bordering Manchester 387ef 658ef 872ef 1,607e ef e f city centre (south-eastern part and north-eastern part ) 8,310f

Source: DCLG IMDs (www.gov.uk and https://data.gov.uk) Note: The higher the rank, the less deprived out of over 30,000 LSOAs. The spatial description of an area is based on the Ordsall ward/MSOA area and there is a change of definition of LSOA in IMD 2015. 526 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

When zooming in on Salford Quays, we can see some significant changes and different spatial patterns in the deprivation ranking of the area (see Table 3). The Quays’ core regenerated area had a significantly higher rank (less deprived) in the 2004 IMD when compared to its neighbouring areas, as the latter are the residence of the country’s 10 per cent most-deprived population. These spatially polarised patterns can be explained by the completion of the first wave of new housing development in the SQDP. The gap between the regenerated core and its surrounding areas has actually increased over time, with the range widened from 165 to 10,946 in 2004 to 973 to 24,254 in 2015, out of over 30,000 neighbourhoods in England. As the latest 2015 IMD shows, the regenerated core of the Lowry, MediaCityUK and Exchange Quays is now amongst the nation’s least-deprived areas; they exhibit very different profiles from their neighbouring areas, with the most stark contrast found in the new development along Exchange Quays (19,686) and other areas along Trafford Road (2,241). Since the area was derelict in the past, all of the housing developments are brand new. The ‘Manhattan-inspired’ lifestyle in the Quays contrasts sharply with the adjacent neighbourhoods, as parts of these are still among the country’s 10 per cent most-deprived areas. Some areas have shown signs of change by attracting new residents to the area. The changing demographic dynamics are a result of private apartment developments along Metrolink routes to Manchester city centre and in designated housing market renewal areas. Due to the methodological limitations of IMD change analysis, performance can only be meaningfully tracked via the ‘economic deprivation index’ (EDI) that was published up to 2009 (Schulze Bäing and Wong, 2012). The EDI change analysis between 1999 and 2009 is mapped in Figure 4. Significant improvement in the employment deprivation of residents, by 38 per cent, is found in both the western part of Salford Quays and the Langworthy area, where Urban Splash’s Chimney Pot Park housing development is located. The adjacent areas around Salford Quays all show signs of improvement, though not to the same extent as the core regenerated area. It is nonetheless important to note that, adjacent to the significantly improved area around the Chimney Pot Park development, there is an upsurge of EDI score by 75 per cent in the core of Pendleton, also known as Salford Shopping Centre, where the 2011 youth riots took place. Some areas east of Salford Quays in Ordsall and north of Salford Quays in Pendleton are still amongst the 10 per cent most-deprived neighbourhoods in the ‘Education, Skills and Training’ domain of the IMD 2015, with one area in Langworthy only ranked 170 amongst all 32,844 LSOAs in England, which can explain the lack of skilled labour supply in neighbouring areas. House price inflation and housing affordability have been critical planning issues in Britain and are indications of an area’s socio-economic sustainability. The UK had a major housing boom in the early 2000s until the financial crash in summer 2007. The house price inflation level was much higher in Greater Manchester (by over 124 The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 527

Figure 4 Economic Deprivation Index, employment deprivation score change, 1999–2009 Source: Authors’ own calculation based on deprivation data

Figure 5 Average house price (mean) for Ordsall and Salford city, 1995–2015 Source: Land Registry house price data 528 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

per cent) than the national average during 2000–2007, including Salford City Council area (with an 80 per cent rise), which was partly due to cheaper house prices in these areas. As shown in Figure 5, the average house price levels of Ordsall (the Salford Quays area) and Salford were rather low, with an average price of less than £60,000 in 2002 before the property boom took off. The price level kept rising and, at the peak, the average property price in the Quays area was £160,000, which was low in comparison to the more affluent parts of Greater Manchester, but more expensive when compared to the local area, as the average price level of Salford city was only around £140,000. However, the impacts of the recession were spatially different across the Greater Manchester city-region (decreasing by over 6 per cent), while Salford suffered from a 10 per cent drop in house price (median price). The situation of the Salford Quays regenerated area was more depressing, with a drop of 20–35 per cent, but the neighbouring areas’ house price levels did not fall as much. This was partly related to the structural issue of the flats/apartments market, which was found to be the most volatile sector across the country during the economic downturn (Wong et al., 2015). As new developments in the Quays are disproportionately concentrated on the apartments market, the price peaked in 2007 but plummeted afterwards (see Figure 5). Despite the recovery of the housing market in 2014, the prices of flats in many areas of Greater Manchester have not been able to return to their 2007 level. This is also very true of the situation in Salford Quays, though the market performance of the area has improved well over the last eighteen months and is now more or less back to the 2007 price level. The irony is that the recession has juxtaposed the relative position between Ordsall and Salford city, with the average price level of Salford city outper- forming that of the Ordsall area since 2012. This may reflect the Quays’ less resilient housing stock composition of flats, often associated with high shares of buy-to-let ownership (Leyshon and French, 2009) and more prone to house price decline (Jones and Evans, 2013).

Discussion and conclusion This paper has aimed to investigate the extent to which flagship brownfield regeneration in Salford Quays has long-term beneficial effects on the regenerated area and its neighbours, which are amongst the most deprived in England. The analysis of the socio-economic neighbourhood dynamics of Salford Quays over time highlights some key planning and regeneration issues that have resonance not only in Britain, but also in other spatial planning contexts. In particular this applies to other similar waterfront regeneration projects, such as the planned Liverpool and Wirral Waters scheme, also by Peel, or the Hamburg Hafencity project. Throughout the 1980s, flagship regeneration projects in Britain, such as in The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 529

Liverpool and London Docklands, were carried out by central government designated development corporations which were quasi-autonomous non-governmental organisations that operated outside the usual town and country planning system. The waterfront regeneration of Salford Quays is a rather unique case as its planning was carried out by Salford City Council with an SQDP. The failure to attract private investment into the derelict dockland, despite being an enterprise zone, prompted the council to take charge of the regeneration destiny by developing a master plan for the area. The focus has been very much on the physical redevelopment of the blighted dock areas to stimulate private investment, as observed by Bennett and Krebs (1991). Salford City Council, central government and European Community funding were the major impetus behind the transformation, which then attracted private investment, especially the MediaCityUK development in the adjacent site owned by the Peel Group. By focusing narrowly on the regenerated area of the Quays, the redevelopment and rebranding of the derelict dockland into a flagship cultural–media magnet with office, leisure and residential development is indeed remarkable. The occupancy of the signature NV buildings in 2005 has boosted the image of the place as the dream of modern luxury apartment living at the midst of the art and cultural scene. Since then, more stylish apartment buildings are sprouting in the area. From the analysis above, it is clear that major employment opportunities have been created in the last two decades and especially in professional and managerial jobs. The analyses of the neighbourhood dynamics of the area show that it has been totally transformed by the process of ‘social upgrading’ (Davidson and Lees, 2005) of incoming residents and qualified commuting workers across the North West region. Since there were hardly any residents within the site in the early 1980s, the transformation of middle-class, high-rise apartment living in the area has not caused any displacement of lower- income residents and thus the issue of gentrification does not really apply. One may even argue that the success of Salford Quays is judged on a wider spatial perspec- tive of being strategically important to the development of Greater Manchester and north-west England. Since major public resources were involved and the masterplan was made by Salford City Council, the expectation is, however, that positive effects should also be brought to the adjacent deprived neighbourhoods. Indeed, successive UK governments adopted deprivation indicators as the funding allocation mechanism for area-based regeneration projects (Wong, 2000). To describe the relationship between Salford Quays and its neighbours one can use the analogy of a ‘jam doughnut’ – with a lot of jam filling the middle of the dough; while some jam slips out to the surrounding dough, most of the doughnut remains dry, without any jam. The analysis of commuting patterns and EDI change demonstrates the splintering spatial effect of different types of employment opportunities. After 530 Andreas Schulze Bäing and Cecilia Wong

major economic restructuring, the types of new jobs created require a highly educated and qualified workforce, which is unlikely to be filled by those living in the country’s 10 per cent most-deprived neighbourhoods. Local residents only fill the lower-level jobs, which tend to have a slower growth rate over time. A case in point is that the relocation of the BBC resulted in the recruitment of only 39 staff from Salford. Even for consumer service jobs in the Quays, only half have been taken up by nearby residents and fewer than 8 per cent are from the most deprived Langworthy area. Nevertheless, for the population in these deprived areas, even such small numbers of jobs are important. Despite this less rosy picture, the commuting-flows analysis shows that Salford Quays has become the main employment destination of residents from nearby areas, as are Manchester city centre and the Trafford Park Industrial Estate. Analysis of the IMD and EDI shows that the deprivation situation in the wider area has improved over time, though there are clear signs of spatial polarisation of development between Salford Quays and its neighbouring area. Critics such as Davidson and Lees (2005) argue that high-density urbanisation brings destructive and unsettling changes within the neighbourhood, which are dubbed ‘gentrification-induced social change’ in their study of London’s riverside. This process may have already been under way in Salford, as reflected in the Brexit voting patterns. Salford city as a whole is a strong Brexit area, with 56.8 per cent voting to leave. However, Ordsall ward, including Salford Quays and MediaCityUK, was one of the four Salford wards that voted to remain, with a majority vote of 67.5 per cent. The mixed outcomes in the improvement in economic deprivation are closely associated with the socio-demographic change in the neighbourhoods. The price swing in the apartment sector in the area is a sign of the volatility of that sector in a weak housing market. Apartments and flats tend to be favoured by single and couple households, but less so for families in the British context, especially in the less pressur- ised northern housing market. Also, as the area prospered, more high-rise buildings were constructed to increase housing density within a limited space. The dynamics of the socio-demographic composition of the newly created neighbourhoods brought by new forms of high-density housing schemes thus remain to be seen. Finally, one has to return to the role of planning in balancing the need to attract investment and safeguard sustainable development. The most recent phase of development of Salford Quays, the MediaCityUK project, was finished after the period analysed in this paper. It is worth noting that the scheme was approved with an open acknowledgement that the Peel Group did not propose environmental mitigation measures, nor affordable housing or financial contributions towards public open space. The planning application was approved on the ground that some vague spatial benefits would be brought to the area in the years to come. This point was seriously challenged and questioned by the House of Commons Public Accounts Committee The impact of brownfield regeneration on neighbourhood dynamics 531

over the BBC’s relocation to Salford. It is interesting to note that the chair, Margaret Hodge, commented that talking to people who live in the area, Peel – whatever it is they call themselves, as they have lots of different companies – have almost a monopoly on capital investment in this area, which always worries me as to whether or not the BBC then get the best price for them. (House of Commons, 2013, Q51) There are very complex arguments over the trade-offs between economic growth and socio-environmental costs and, as demonstrated in this paper, the crux is how to measure them in terms of spatial and temporal benefits. The analyses and methodological approach presented in this paper, in particular the analyses of commuting flows, could be applied to the impact analyses of other large-scale brownfield regeneration projects. While similar small-area commuting-flow data are rare to find in many other countries, it could be done by conducting local questionnaire surveys on home–work locations. This applies to longitudinal and spatial analyses of existing regeneration projects by academic studies, but it could also provide a framework for policymakers to carry out more systematic impact monitoring.

Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge funding support from the UK Economic and Social Research Council (Ref. ES/L014459/1) and the University of Manchester– Chinese University of Hong Kong joint research fund.

This article was published open access under a CC BY license. https://creativecom- mons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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