IDEAS. INFLUENCE. IMPACT. IRAN TASK FORCE Yasmin Alem and Barbara Slavin SOUTH ASIA CENTER The Political Kaleidoscope Turns Again in Crisis-Challenged Iran: 2013 Elections Iran has never had what the West would regard as free, Atlantic Council Iran Task Force fair, and competitive elections. Some would point to the The Iran Task Force, launched in 2010 and chaired brief periods following the 1906 Constitutional Revolution by Ambassador Stuart Eizenstat, seeks to perform and between the end of World War II and 1953, when a a comprehensive analysis of Iran’s internal political CIA-backed coup re-installed Shah Mohammad Reza landscape, as well as its role in the region and globally, Pahlavi, as possible exceptions to this rule. The upcoming to answer the question of whether there are elements presidential elections this June will be no such exception, within the country and region that can build the basis with candidates restricted to eight proven loyalists to for an improved relationship with the West and how the regime. Nevertheless, the vote will be an important these elements, if they exist, could be utilized by US barometer of the stability and durability of an embattled policymakers. regime that is increasingly unpopular domestically and isolated internationally. The elections will also produce a The Iran Task Force is a project of the Atlantic Council’s new turn of the kaleidoscope within Iran’s shrinking political South Asia Center, and is supported generously by a elite, as existing factions break apart and regroup. The grant from the Ploughshares Fund. next president is likely to be more moderate in tone, if not in policy, and more competent and less divisive than revenues have been halved to under $70 billion last the outgoing Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. This could have year1 and inflation and unemployment are at record important implications not just for the country’s domestic levels. Iranian citizens will be voting in an atmosphere course but for Iran’s confrontation with the United States of extreme vigilance by the security services that fear a and the international community over the nuclear question. repeat of the 2009 demonstrations. The Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will seek to balance his desire The Context for a respectable turnout with his reluctance to allow a The 2013 elections will take place at a time of crisis popular candidate with an independent power base to run. for Iran, which is suffering from the worst economic Khamenei’s preferred replacement for Ahmadinejad would sanctions in its history. The Iranian leadership’s refusal be someone who combines loyalty to the regime with a to accept international demands for verifiable curbs on its nuclear program combined with its mismanagement 1 David Bird, Sanctions Cut Iran’s Oil Exports to 26-Year Low, The Wall Street Journal, April 29, 2013 (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412 of the economy have led to a dire situation. Iranian oil 7887323528404578452121121218106.html) Yasmin Alem is an expert on Iranian elections and domestic politics. She is the author of Duality by Design: the Iranian Electoral System. Barbara Slavin is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s South Asia Center, a journalist, and author of a 2007 book on Iran entitled Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S. and the Twisted Path to Confrontation (St. Martin’s Press, 2007). Important Events: Important Events: The election was held Important Events: Important Events: The Guardian Council two months after the After Bani-Sadr’s The election marked barred Mehdi resignat ion o fhf the impeachment, the the reversa l o f Bazargan, Iran ’s firs t provisional government government organized Supreme Leader post-revolutionary and without the vetting a hasty and barely- Khomeini’s opposition prime minister, from of candidates by the contested early to clerics running for competing in the Guardian Council. election. high office. election. Number of Number of Number of Number of Qualified Qualified Qualified Qualified Candidates: Candidates: Candidates: Candidates: 123 4 4 4 IIran’sran’s PPresidentalresidential 1st Preside nti al 2nd Presidential 3rd Presidential 4th Presidential EElectionlection TimelineTimeline Election Election Election Election 11980980 - 20092009 January 25, 1980 July 24, 1981 October 2, 1981 August 16, 1985 Winner: Winner: Winner: Abolhassan Mohammad Ali Ali Bani-Sadr Rajai Khamenei Fate of President: Fate of President: Fate of President: Bani-Sadr was dismissed Rajai was Khamenei was selected by from office in 1981 after assassinated on the Assembly of Experts to the Iranian Parliament August 30, 1981, succeed Khomeini, after his impeached him for less than a month death in 1989, as Supreme incompetence. after taking the oath Leader of the Islamic of office. Republic of Iran. proven record of managerial competence. A frustrated include members of the Revolutionary Guards who control and disillusioned electorate, to the extent it is willing to turn large portions of the Iranian economy and industrialists and out, may be seeking the same. “Everyone is looking for a importers struggling to contend with sanctions. The Leader competent CEO,” said Farideh Farhi, an expert on Iran at will seek to engineer the vote and might resort to fraud the University of Hawaii.2 if necessary to anoint his preferred candidate. Tensions could still flare if the outgoing president tries to thwart the The pool from which this competent steward can be Leader’s desire to marginalize the Ahmadinejad camp. chosen is smaller than at any period in the history of the Islamic Republic. Since he came to power in 1989, the History of Iranian Elections Supreme Leader has marginalized major factions in Iran, Frequent elections have been a salient feature of the including pragmatists and reformists, and reduced space Islamic Republic. Subject to state intervention and for authorized political expression.3 However, he has also manipulation—and thus far from inclusive conduits for failed to reduce the country’s endemic factionalism. New genuine power contestation—the outcomes of Iranian coalitions, which often represent important economic elections still matter. Although the Supreme Leader constituencies, are fighting over diminishing spoils. They makes the final and key decisions on both foreign and domestic policy, important aspects of Iran’s management 2 Comment to co-author, April 12, 2013. have switched from the hands of pragmatists (1989-97) 3 Yasmin Alem and Barbara Slavin, “The Supreme Leader Grows Ever to reformists (1997-2005) and then conservatives (2005- Lonelier at the Top,” Atlantic Council Iran Task Force, March 2012 (http:// www.acus.org/files/publication_pdfs/403/031912_ACUS_IranInternal. 13). These electoral shifts were reflected in more than PDF). 2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL Important Events: Important Events: Important Events: Important Events: Important Events: Important Events: For the first time in Incumbent Mahmoud A constitutional Calling the election Khatami’s election Khatami’s reelection the history of the Ahmadinejad’s refdferendum was ceremonilial, campaign galvanized bid was overshadowed Islamic Republic of disputed reelection held in conjunction several prominent the electorate and by a conservative Iran, run off elections led to eight months with the reformist groups brought out 80 backlash against his were held between of unrest and a harsh presidential boycotted the percent of voters on agenda for political the top two crackdown on civil election. election. Election Day. reform. challengers. society. Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of Number of Qualified Qualified Qualified Qualified Qualified Qualified Candidates: Candidates: Candidates: Candidates: Candidates: Candidates: 2 4 4 10 7 4 5th Presidential 6th Presidential 7th Presidential 8th Presidential 9th Presidential 10th Presidential Election Election Election Election Election Election July 28, 1989 June 11, 1993 May 23, 1997 June 8, 2001 June 17, 2005 June 12, 2009 Winner: Winner: Winner: Akbar Hashemi Mohammad Mahmoud Rafsanjani Khatami Ahmadinejad Fate of President: Fate of President: Fate of President: Rafsanjani is the current Chairman of the Following his second term in office, Khatami Ahmadinejad's second term in office was Expediency Council. He registered for the founded the Dialogue Among Civilizations marked by controversy. He was summoned to 2013 presidential election, but was later and Cultures Institute but was marginalized and questioned by parliament twice, an event disqualified by the Guardian Council. for supporting the Green Movement in 2009. unprecedented in the history of the Islamic Republic of Iran. just a change of tone and at times resulted in genuine and 85 percent in 1997 and 2009, respectively—have overtures to the West and internal relaxation of strict occurred at the height of popular dissatisfaction with the Islamic rules. During the presidency of Mohammad country’s political course. In both instances, citizens used Khatami, for example, restrictions on the press and on the elections to register their grievances and challenge the dress and public participation of women eased. Iranian status quo. In 1997, the ruling establishment heeded the officials under Khatami also made repeated efforts to call for change and respected the landslide victory of begin a comprehensive dialogue with the George W. Bush Khatami, a relative moderate in Iranian terms. In 2009, administration, which were largely rebuffed.4 Essential however, the Supreme Leader chose repression over for