Contentious Politics in Turkey: the Changing Patterns Of
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CONTENTIOUS POLITICS IN TURKEY: THE CHANGING PATTERNS OF POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN PROTEST, 1945-2007 by Masaki Kakizaki A dissertation submitted to the faculty of The University of Utah in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Department of Political Science The University of Utah August 2015 Copyright © Masaki Kakizaki 2015 All Rights Reserved The University of Utah Graduate School STATEMENT OF DISSERTATION APPROVAL The dissertation of Masaki Kakizaki has been approved by the following supervisory committee members: M. Hakan Yavuz , Chair 12/11/2014 Date Approved Howard Lehman , Member 12/11/2014 Date Approved Yanqi Tong , Member 12/11/2014 Date Approved Samuel Handlin , Member 12/11/2014 Date Approved Wesley Makoto Sasaki-Uemura , Member 12/11/2014 Date Approved and by Mark Button , Chair/Dean of the Department/College/School of Political Science and by David B. Kieda, Dean of The Graduate School. ABSTRACT This dissertation analyzes popular participation in contentious politics such as protests, demonstrations, and other forms of disruptive actions in Turkey. It seeks to explain how and when the patterns of popular engagement in protest have changed during the last six decades by quantitatively and systematically examining various data on protest events in the public space. This dissertation seeks to answer the following three central questions. First, how have the patterns of protest participation evolved over time in Turkey? Second, is Turkey moving toward a “social movement society” in which protest becomes a conventional mode of politics? Third, how do age-related variables including life cycle, political generation, and period affect individuals’ propensity to join protest? To answer these questions, I used a variety of data. The first source is the information compiled in the World Handbook of Political and Social Indicators that presents a set of cross-national aggregate data of protest events and state control in the world. The second source is my original data set that covers more than 1,000 protest events through the coding of a Turkish national newspaper, Cumhuriyet . Third, I used the Turkish components of the World Values Survey that were carried out in 1990, 1998, 2001, and 2007. iii Analyzing the interactions between protest participation and political and socio- economic factors in Turkey, this dissertation argues that we should integrate protest behavior and state control into an interactional framework. I demonstrate that the rise and fall of protest politics between the late 1940s and the late 1970s was significantly affected by the state’s ability to sanction political dissidents. It also quantitatively presents the change and continuity of protest participation in the post-1980 military coup period. At the individual level, this dissertation finds that protest is not diffusing to various sectors of the population. Furthermore, it shows that protest potential among Turkish citizens is influenced by lifecycle and period effects rather than a generational effect. iv Dedicated to My Family TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... ix LIST OF TABLES ...............................................................................................................x ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .............................................................................................. xii Chapters 1. INTRODUCTION ..........................................................................................................1 1.1 General Problems ..............................................................................................1 1.2 Focus of the Study and Research Questions .....................................................5 1.3 Data and Methods .............................................................................................8 1.4 Significance of the Study ..................................................................................9 1.5 Plan of the Dissertation ...................................................................................11 2. THE LITERATURE ON CONTENTIOUS POLITICS IN TURKEY ........................13 2.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................13 2.2 A Strong State Thesis in Turkish Politics .......................................................13 2.3 Civil Society ....................................................................................................17 2.4 Contentious Politics ........................................................................................23 2.5 Conclusion ......................................................................................................28 3. THE EVOLUTION OF CONTENTIOUS POLITICS (1945-1980) ............................30 3.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................30 3.2 Modeling the State-Society Relations in Contentious Politics .......................33 3.3 Data .................................................................................................................38 3.4 Indicators of Political Protest and Social Control ...........................................40 3.5 Four Phases of Contentious Politics in Turkish Politics .................................43 3.5.1 Period I (1948-1949): Nonconfrontation ................................................45 3.5.2 Period II (1950-1959): Suppressed Civil Society ...................................48 3.5.3 Period III (1960-1970): Confrontation ....................................................53 vi 3.5.4 Period IV (1971-1977): Dual Power .......................................................60 3.6 Conclusion ......................................................................................................66 4. PROTEST EVENT ANALYSIS (1980-1999) .............................................................74 4.1 Introduction .....................................................................................................74 4.2 Protest Event Analysis ....................................................................................75 4.3 Data .................................................................................................................80 4.4 Civil Society in Turkey after the 1980 Military Intervention .........................84 4.5 Protest Events in Turkey between 1981 and 1999 ..........................................87 4.5.1 The Cycle of Protest ................................................................................87 4.5.2 The Rhythm and Size of Protest .............................................................95 4.5.3 The Spatial Distribution of Protest .........................................................96 4.5.4 The Protest Actors ...................................................................................99 4.5.5 The Claims of Protest ............................................................................105 4.5.6 The Forms of Protest .............................................................................110 4.5.7 Associations between Claims and Forms of Protest .............................111 4.5.8 The Targets of Protest ...........................................................................112 4.5.9 Associations between Issues and Targets of Protest .............................113 4.6 Conclusion ....................................................................................................115 5. TOWARD A MOVEMENT SOCIETY? ...................................................................127 5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................127 5.2 The Social Movement Society Thesis ...........................................................131 5.3 Protest Diffusion in Contemporary Turkish Politics ....................................136 5.3.1 Protest Diffusion to Religious Women .................................................138 5.3.2 The Saturday Mothers ...........................................................................140 5.3.3 Republican Meetings ............................................................................141 5.3.4 Anti-Iraq War Protests ..........................................................................143 5.3.5 Social Protests by Merchants and Artisans ...........................................145 5.3.6 Gezi Protests .........................................................................................146 5.4 Continuity and Change in Protest Participation in Turkey, 1990-2007 ........148 5.4.1 Bivariate Analysis .................................................................................148 5.4.2 Logistic Regression Analysis ................................................................150 5.5 Discussion and Conclusion ............................................................................154 6. EFFECTS OF POLITICAL GENERATION, LIFE CYCLE, AND PERIOD ON PROTEST POTENTIAL IN TURKEY ......................................................................165 6.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................166 6.2 Theoretical Background ................................................................................167