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LBNL QM Recommendations Report

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LBNL QM Recommendations Report LBNL-1007267 Recommendations for Geologic Carbon Sequestration in California: I. Siting Criteria and Monitoring Approaches, II. Example Application Case Study Final Report Deliverable under ARB Agreement No. 15ISD007 Prepared for the California Air Resources Board and the California Environmental Protection Agency Curtis M. Oldenburg Preston D. Jordan Elizabeth Burton Energy Geosciences Division Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory June 15, 2017 QM Recommendations Report Rev. 3.1 This page left intentionally blank QM Recommendations Report Page ii Rev. 3.1 DISCLAIMERS The statements and conclusions in this report are those of the contractor authors and not necessarily those of the California Air Resources Board. The mention of commercial products, their source, or their use in connection with material reported herein is not to be construed as actual or implied endorsement of such products. This document was prepared as an account of work partially sponsored by the United States Government. While this document is believed to contain correct information, neither the United States Government nor any agency thereof, nor the Regents of the University of California, nor any of their employees, makes any warranty, express or implied, or assumes any legal responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information, apparatus, product, or process disclosed, or represents that its use would not infringe privately owned rights. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by its trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the United States Government or any agency thereof, or the Regents of the University of California. The views and opinions of authors expressed herein do not necessarily state or reflect those of the United States Government or any agency thereof or the Regents of the University of California. QM Recommendations Report Page iii Rev. 3.1 ACKNOWLEDGMENT We thank Xuping Li (ARB) for guidance and efficient project management. Support by LBNL was provided under US Department of Energy Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. This report was submitted in fulfillment of Agreement No. 15ISD007, Recommendations for Geologic Carbon Sequestration Siting Criteria and Monitoring Approaches and Example Application Case Study, by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory under the partial sponsorship of the California Air Resources Board. QM Recommendations Report Page iv Rev. 3.1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1. PART I. EVALUATION OF SITE-SELECTION CRITERIA AND MONITORING APPROACHES ........................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................... 1 1.2 RISK-BASED SITE SELECTION ..................................................................................... 3 1.2.1 Introduction ......................................................................................................... 3 1.2.2 Review of Approaches to Risk-Based Site Selection ......................................... 7 1.2.3 Risk-Based Site Selection in the California Context ...................................... 10 1.3 FAILURE SCENARIOS RELEVANT TO SURFACE LEAKAGE ............................ 10 1.3.1 Well-integrity failure ......................................................................................... 10 1.3.2 Well Leakage in the California Context .......................................................... 14 1.3.3 Faults and Fractures ......................................................................................... 15 1.3.4 Induced seismicity .............................................................................................. 18 1.3.5 Fault Leakage in the California Context ......................................................... 19 1.3.6 Well, Fault, and Fracture Surface Leakage Risk Mitigation ........................ 20 1.3.7 Summary ............................................................................................................ 21 1.4 MONITORING TECHNOLOGIES AND APPROACHES .......................................... 22 1.4.1 Introduction ....................................................................................................... 22 1.4.2 Practical Monitoring of GCS for Containment Assurance ........................... 23 1.4.3 Monitoring for Specific California Failure Scenarios .................................... 28 1.4.3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 28 1.4.3.2 Positive accounting ................................................................................................ 28 1.4.3.3 Negative accounting .............................................................................................. 30 1.4.3.4 Leakage Timing ..................................................................................................... 31 1.4.3.5 Surface Leakage .................................................................................................... 32 1.4.3.6 Subsurface Migration ............................................................................................ 32 1.4.3.7 Strategy for Detecting Baseline Levels .................................................................. 33 1.4.3.8 Sensitivity and Accuracy ........................................................................................ 34 1.4.3.9 Area to Monitor ..................................................................................................... 34 1.4.3.10 Frequency of Measurement ............................................................................... 34 1.4.3.11 Spatial Coverage in Terms of Where and How Much Density .......................... 35 1.4.3.12 Schedule and Phasing of Monitoring ................................................................ 35 QM Recommendations Report Page v Rev. 3.1 1.4.3.13 Attribution ......................................................................................................... 35 1.4.3.14 Proxy or Companion Gases .............................................................................. 36 1.4.3.15 Use of Tracers ................................................................................................... 36 1.4.3.16 Monitoring Workflow to Inform Annual Quantification ................................... 37 1.4.3.17 Assessment of Plume Stability ........................................................................... 37 1.5 EVALUATION OF SITING CRITERIA ........................................................................ 37 1.5.1 Historical use considerations (e.g., oil and gas production) ........................... 37 1.5.2 Minimum injection depth ................................................................................. 40 1.5.3 Minimum cap-rock thickness, spatial variability, and quality of cap rock .. 44 1.5.4 Delineation of an area of review (AoR); tiered or temporally variable AoR 46 1.5.5 Minimum pore-space capacity and injectivity ................................................ 47 1.5.6 Identification of potential leakage pathways for CO2 .................................... 52 1.5.7 Proximity to emission sources and potential for CO2 capture ...................... 68 1.5.8 Proximity to population centers ....................................................................... 68 1.5.9 Seismic hazard considerations .......................................................................... 71 1.5.10 Establishing pipeline or other transportation rights-of-way ......................... 75 1.5.11 Setting requirements for baseline data collection, including levels and other sources of CO2 emissions, groundwater chemistry, and microseismicity ...................... 75 1.5.12 Necessary geologic models and CO2 flow simulations .................................... 75 1.5.12.1 Surface leakage of CO2 ..................................................................................... 75 1.5.12.2 Subsurface migration and trapping of CO2 ....................................................... 75 1.5.13 Summary of recommended site-selection criteria .......................................... 76 PART II: SITE-SELECTION CASE STUDY ........................................................................ 79 2.1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 79 2.2 SITE-SELECTION CRITERIA APPLIED TO CANDIDATE SITES ........................ 79 2.2.1 King Island ......................................................................................................... 79 2.2.1.1 Overview ................................................................................................................ 79 2.2.1.2 Application of recommended site-selection criteria .............................................. 85 2.2.1.3 Likelihood of leakage via unknown wells and uncased borings ............................ 86 2.2.1.4 Likelihood of leakage via known uncased borings ................................................ 87 2.2.1.5 Likelihood of leakage via known wells .................................................................. 90 2.2.1.6 Likelihood of leakage via geologic pathways through seal (low brittleness) ........ 90 2.2.1.7 Likelihood of leakage through intact seal (overpressure)
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