GOOD WAR OR BAD PEACE: PAGE ZBIGNIEW BRZEZINSKI: PAGE THE GOVERNMENT'S PAGE ANY OTHER OPTIONS PUTIN'S NOSTALGIA AND UKRAINE'S LANGUAGE POLICY: BUILDING WITH RUSSIAN GAS? 14 GEOPOLITICAL PROSPECTS 22 THE TOWER OF BABEL IN UKRAINE 30 № 2 (25) FEBRUARY 2012 WWW.UKRAINIANWEEK.COM FOR FREE DISTRIBUTION Featuring selected content from The Economist |CONTENTS BRIEFING FOCUS POLITICS Civil tsunamis in In Search Lock, Stock and the world and BELARU S ROUTES TO TRANSIT TURKMEN GAS of a Scam for Two: Two Smoking Ortrialsenburg in Kyiv: ALTERNATIVE TO THE RUSSIAN ONE RUSSIA The government’s Pipes: Kyiv TUKC pipeline 2011 HighlightsOrsk (Turkmenian-Uzbekian-Kazakhan-China) plans to decrease Who gets to UKRAINE Karachaganakfrom opinion ◀ The fir seion was launched in December 2009; KA Z AKHST AN capacity is continuously growing Ukraine’s dependence control energy ◀ Projeed total length is 7,000km including 188km through MOLDOVA leaders Turkmenian, 530km through Uzbekian, 1,300km through on Russian gas Kazakhan and over 4,500km through China supplies to ROMANIA ◀ Transfer capacity is up to 65bn cu m annually6 8 12 Odesа Novorossiysk Available pipelines Europe Conanta A E BLA C K S E A S Shymkent Almaty BULGARIA N GEORGIA UZBEKISTAN CHINA A Bishkek Burgas Tbilisi I Supsa P KIRGIZIAEnergy Quasi- Alain Guillemoles Down to Earth: Ianbul S Baku TURKMENISTAN Tashkent ARMENIA A NABUCCO C Empire: Post- on Gazprom and Shale gas in Ankara Ashgabat TAJIKISTAN ◀ Projeed length is 3,300km ◀ Initial projeed capacity TURKEY Dushanbe soviet countries Ukraine’s gas Poland Ceyhan is up to 32bn cu m annually Tebriz place a stake in prospects SYRIA Neka Tehran Kabul diversificationRussia to MEDITERRANEAN IRAN Islamabad is intereed SEA IRAQ Bagdad AFGHANIS TA N win thein building jackpot Isfahan these 14 16 18 pipelines JORDAN INDIA Quetta EGYPT Pipelines from Turkmenian to IranNEIGHBOURS TAPI pipeline P E ◀ Total transit capacity is up to 8bn cu m annually (Turkmenian-Afghanian-Pakian-India) R S PAKISTAN ◀ In January 2010, a new 30km long pipeline was I ◀ Total length is over 1,700km including over 700km JohnA N GF. Teft: built from the Dauletabad Gas Field to TheKhangiran inPrice Iran of Isolation: Zbigniew Brzezinski: through Afghanian QATAR U ◀ Total capacity will amount to 12bn cu m annually L F ◀ The capacity is nearly 33bn cu m annually RuleUAE of Law The pause in Mr. Putin is heads the list European integration motivated by of necessary makes Ukraine ever historical nostalgia reforms in more vulnerable to which is out of touch Ukraine Russia’s economic with reality 19 pressure 20 22 ECONOMICS Neither Sticks, Nor Under the Natalia Carrots: The 2012 State Macroscope: Nemylivska: Budget entails neither Projections Sustainable a significant increase for the current and effective in fiscal pressure nor year in reforms pre-election overtures Ukraine are vital for to the electorate 24 26 Ukraine 28 SOCIETY INVESTIGATION Creeping і How to Bring An Army for Sale: Up a Ukrainian- Corrupt officers DeUkrainization: Ї Language Out Єі Squeezing the Government Є Speaking Child and soldiers- Ґ ҐЇ Ukrainian is being pushed out of many areas of public life conducts an і Overin the pUkrainea two years, temporary improvements in the atus of the slaves in the Ukrainian language gained from 2005-2009 have been nullified. Things undeclared war went back to what they had been in 2005, when the decline of Ukrainian Ukrainian usage peaked under President Kuchma. Over the ten years leading up to against the state 2005, the share of Ukrainian-language print media had declined from Armed Forces 3047% in 1995 to 31% in 2005, accompanied by the growth of Russian- 34 36 language language print media from 47% to 64% respeively. HISTORY The print run More and moreCULTURE newspapers The & share ARTS of films dubbed of Ukrainian-language switch in Ukrainian and shown 39.4 books and brochures published 41.0 to Russian in movie theaters legally 49.9 50.5 Architects of 38.4 The Western The Painted Garden: in Ukraine is shrinking 40.0 is plum- meting 2009 Bygone(сopies perTraditions: 1,000 Brand: Youth Woodland art goes Ukraine citizens) 2009 49.7 Ousted by 49.8 subcultures in all the way from 66.5 8,7 10,4 63.3 60% Bolsheviks,2010 those the USSR native Americans to 8,2 who built Kyiv 9,5 Ukraine 27,527 2010 never returned 32.0 55.5% 56.7% 24,704 30.1 of the total print run 38 42 46 3.2 3,2 4.5 54.8% 4,5 of the total print run As of 2010 2011 2010 2011 2010 2011 20 Oober NAVIGATOR % of annual print run 2011 In Ukrainian Ukrainian Russian Bilingual (Ukrainian 47.8% In Ukrainian language language and Russian) 10 Wonders of the % of publications % of issues Chernihiv Region UKRAINIAN IS DISAPPEARING FROM TV AND RADIO Based on monitoring of the eight mo popular TV Based on the monitoring* of six mo channels from 6-10 p.m. on weekdays popular radio ations from 4-8 p.m. and 12-4 p.m. on weekends held Monitoring time on 31 Oober 2011 in late Oober 2011 0:10 *by the Freedom Space NGO 8:00 1:25 Total hours of monitoring 14:14 6:25 Hours of shows in Ukrainian 19:49 Total: 24 hours of monitoring Hours of Ukrainian/Russian shows 29:57 2:39 Hours of shows in Russian Total hours of monitoring 8:00 2:20 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 by language segments 3:01 48 0:03 8:00 1:00 6:57 25% 7.1% 12.1% 24.2% 7.5% 91.7% 0:41 14.9% 0% 0% 4.5% 0% 30% 8:00 3:00 31.0 4:19 international monthly edition 0:00 Total % of airtime Total % of songs 8:00 6:00 in Ukrainian in Ukrainian 2:00 1:38 8:00 2:00 22.2 4:22 46.8% 4:05 The Ukrainian Week № 2 (25) February 2012 8:00 1:15 Mailing4.6% address: PO Box 2, Kyiv, 03067 2:40 28.1% al: 64 hours of monitoring 4:58 Founder: ECEM Media Ukraine LLC Publisher: Thet Ukrainian Week LLC Publisher address: vul. Mashynobudivna 37, Kyiv 03067 Ukraine 8:00 2:49 % of hours for % of hours for % of hours for To First published in JanuaryUkrainian shows 2010bilingual shows Russian shows 0:13 E-mail: [email protected], Tel.: (044) 351-1300 Based on the following research: The Language Balance in Ukraine in 2008-2009 by Olena Medvedeva, The Status of the Ukrainian Language in Ukraine by the Freedom Space volunteer campaign, and data State registration certificatefrom the State Statiics 16412-4884P Committee of March 13, 2010 www.ukrainianweek.com Bohdan Andriytsev, Director, ECEM Media Ukraine LLC Print: ТОV SKIMP, TOV ART STUDIYA DRUKU; vul. Boryspilska 15, Kyiv Serhiy Lytvynenko, Editor-in-Chief, The Ukrainian Week Ordering number: 48-01. Print run: 15,000 Natalia Romanec, Shaun Williams, Editors; Sent to print on 27 January 2011 Anna Korbut, Translator Free distribution № 2 (25) FEBRUARY 2012|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|3 BRIEFING| 6 January 18 January 20 January The Court bans the sup- Viktor Yanukovych replaces Fedir The Kyiv Court of Appeal finds porters of Yulia Tymosh- Yaroshenko, Premier Azarov’s that the closure of Kuchma enko from protesting in right hand, with Valeriy Khorosh- case is legitimate. The Pros- front of the Kachanivska kovsky, ex-Chief of the SBU, as the ecutor General is preparing a Prison in Kharkiv new Finance Minister* reversal of the judgment QUOTES ANDRIY KLIUYEV heads the election team First Vice Premier Mr. Kliuyev will lead the Party of Regions’ 2012 election cam- paign YURIY VYNNYCHUK gets censored Based on a complaint from Leonid Hrach, MP and poet, the police checks Mr. Vynnychuk’s poetry to find indications of pornography and calls to violence ALEXEI MILLER mocks Mykola Azarov The Council of Europe Is Not “If you say Ukraine’s gas transit system is a historical trea- sure, then Ready to Make Ultimatums you can lock it away in a museum,” says Gazprom’s lthough the conclusion of the PACE their MPs and sympathizers — made a CEO. resolution on Ukraine contains a vain attempt to convince its leaders that paragraph, which in principle allows the current Ukrainian government gives Athe imposition of sanctions, none of preference to a different style of commu- YULIA TYMOSHENKO the heads of this international organization nication. For a long time now, official Ky- are actually ready to define such possibility. iv’s means of persuasion have been prohi- takes a snipe at the “Sanctions would be an admission of de- bition and imprisonment. Not everyone President feat,” stated new PACE President, Jean- has been put “under pressure” yet, just In her letter Claude Mignon, in an interview with The the ones who are the government’s most from jail, Ms. Ty- Ukrainian Week. “We are here with you active political competitors. But this moshenko tells Mr. Yanukovych: “Your in the house of democracy. A different lan- could all change. The opposition is trying family has grown guage is used here — it is not brutal or au- to respond duly. But since it does not have so strong, that it will thoritarian. People seek dialogue and con- at its disposal such mechanisms of influ- soon be able to crush viction here.” ence as the government, it is looking for the whole country” During the winter PACE session, the external support. Internal resources are Ukrainian opposition — in the words of not enough. The month 13 January 1877 15 January 1992 19 January 1912 in history Levko Matsievych, construction en- The Verkhovna Rada Yaroslav Stetsko, an activ- gineer, inventor and first Ukrainian approves the music ist of Ukrainian Nationalist aviator, is born for the State An- Organization and Premier them of Ukraine by of the Ukrainian State in Mykhailo Verbytsky 1941, is born 4|THE UKRAINIAN WEEK|№ 2 (25) FEBRUARY 2012 |BRIEFING 22 January 24 January 25 January The united opposition, which *Go to http://ukrai- Ales Bialiatski, Belarus politician The registration of nianweek.com/ for includes all members of the more details on critical and human rights campaigner, presidential candi- Committee for Resistance to changes in the govern- remains behind bars even after dates is completed Dictatorship, signs a Memo- ment and develop- the public collects USD 90,000 in Russia, leaving 4 randum of Joint Actions* ments in the opposition to pay his fine to the state rivals for Mr.