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Linköping Studies in Arts and Science No Linköping Studies in Arts and Science No. 475 Water Realities and Development Trajectories Global and Local Agricultural Production Dynamics Mats Lannerstad Linköping Studies in Arts and Science No. 475 Linköping University, Department of Water and Environmental Studies Linköping 2009 Linköping Studies in Arts and Science No. 475 At the Faculty of Arts and Science at Linköping University, research and doctoral studies are carried out within broad problem areas. Research is organized in interdisciplinary research environments and doctoral studies mainly in graduate schools. Jointly, they publish the series Linköping Studies in Arts and Science. This thesis comes from the Department of Water and Environmental Studies at the Tema Institute. Distributed by: Department of Water and Environmental Studies Linköping University SE - 581 83 Linköping Mats Lannerstad Water Realities and Development Trajectories Global and Local Agricultural Production Dynamics Cover: Bhavani basin, Tamil Nadu, India. Photos: Mats Lannerstad. Design: Dennis Netzell and Mats Lannerstad. Edition 1:1 ISBN 978-91-7393-665-1 ISSN 0282-9800 © Mats Lannerstad ([email protected]) Department of Water and Environmental Studies Printed by: LiU-Tryck, Linköping, 2009 ABSTRACT Water constraints for humans and nature are gaining more and more public attention as a critical environmental dilemma that needs to be addressed. When aquifers and rivers are running dry, the debate refers to an ongoing “world water crisis.” This thesis focuses on the water and agricultural production complexity in a global, regional and local perspective during different phases of development. It addresses the river basin closing process in light of consumptive water use changes, land use alterations, past and future food production in water- scarce developing countries in general, and a south Indian case study basin in particular, the Bhavani basin in Tamil Nadu. The study focuses on early phases of global agricultural development and addresses consumptive water use and river depletion in response to land use change and irrigation expansion. It shows that focus must be shifted from a water use to a consumptive water use notion and that consideration must be given to both green and blue water resources. The Bhavani basin development trajectory reveals a dynamic interplay between land and water resources and different socio-political groups during the “green revolution” period. The present system has emerged as a step-by-step adaptation in response to hydro-climatic variability, human demands and infrastructural development. The study reveals three kinds of basin closure: allocation closure, hydrological closure, and perception-wise closure. Many concerted actions on multiple scales have contributed to an increasing water use complexity even after closure. The study shows the extent to which natural variability hides creeping changes and that the “average year” is a deceptive basis for water allocation planning. Future consumptive water requirements to feed growing populations in the developing world is analysed with a back-casting country-based approach. The study shows a doubling of water requirements by 2050 and how the challenge can be halved by increased water productivity. Since accessibility of blue water for irrigation will be clearly insufficient, additional green water has to be acquired by horizontal agricultural expansion into other terrestrial ecosystems. The task will be substantial and increase the importance of global food trade. CONTENTS ABSTRACT.........................................................................................................................vii CONTENTS..........................................................................................................................ix FIGURES................................................................................................................................x TABLES................................................................................................................................xi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMNS.........................................................................xii GLOSSARY........................................................................................................................xiii FAOSTAT DEFINITIONS................................................................................................xiv MEASURES AND VOLUMES...........................................................................................xv LIST OF PAPERS............................................................................................................xvii NAVIGARE NECESSE EST...................................................................................................1 1. RISING CONCERNS IN A THEORETICAL AND REALITY CONTEXT.................7 WATER SCARCITY: A GROWING GLOBAL INTEREST..........................................................7 HUMAN WATER USE DIMENSIONS.............................................................................................9 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION AND WATER USE................................................................9 MORE PEOPLE EATING MORE AND ANIMAL FOODS.......................................................12 CONSUMPTIVE WATER USE AND WATER PRODUCTIVITY...........................................15 RIVER BASIN TRAJECTORIES AND BASIN CLOSURE........................................................22 STILL MORE PEOPLE DEMANDING STILL MORE FOOD..................................................29 2. OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE.............................................................................................33 3. METHODS AND MATERIALS...................................................................................35 PAPERS I AND II.................................................................................................................................35 PAPERS III, IV AND V.......................................................................................................................35 CASE STUDY AREA: BHAVANI BASIN......................................................................................39 4. FINDINGS AND INTERPRETATIONS.....................................................................43 HISTORICAL LAND AND WATER USE INSIGHTS................................................................43 DOWN-TO-EARTH STUDY.............................................................................................................46 CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND POPULATION INCREASE...............................................46 AGRICULTURAL BLUE WATER USE RESPONSES.............................................................48 WATER-RELATED LAND USE AND CROP CHANGES......................................................53 BLUE WATER OUTCOME.............................................................................................................57 BASIN DEVELOPMENT MOVING UPSTREAM.....................................................................59 THREE TYPES OF CLOSURE.......................................................................................................60 ix BHAVANI BASIN WATER USE CYCLES..................................................................................61 VARIABILITY AND WATER ACCOUNTING...........................................................................61 DRIVERS OF BHAVANI BASIN CLOSURE..............................................................................63 FROM FAMINES TO FACTORIES...............................................................................................64 REAL-LIFE ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT.................................................................................66 FUTURE OUTLOOK...........................................................................................................................68 GLOBAL CONSUMPTIVE WATER USE....................................................................................68 WATER CHALLENGES...................................................................................................................69 WHICH WATER RESOURCES?...................................................................................................70 WHAT TRADE-OFFS AGAINST NATURAL ECOYSTEMS?...............................................71 5. FUTURE-ORIENTED COGITATIONS......................................................................75 HARD OR SOFT LANDING?............................................................................................................75 THE ONE-ACRE DILEMMA............................................................................................................76 NEEDS, AVERAGE CONSUMPTION LEVELS AND LOSSES...............................................78 WHO WILL FEED WHOM?.............................................................................................................80 CLIMATE CHANGE, VARIABILITY AND INTERVENTIONS..............................................81 6. CONCLUDING REMARKS...........................................................................................83 NOTES.................................................................................................................................87 APPENDICES.....................................................................................................................89 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.................................................................................................95 REFERENCES.....................................................................................................................97
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