Pakistan’s Security Dilemma and the War on Terrorism
Submitted by Muhammad Tariq Javed Ph.D. Scholar
Department of International Relations University of Peshawar December 2016
APPROVAL CERTIFICATE
Pakistan’s Security Dilemma and the War on Terrorism
Dissertation Presented By Muhammad Tariq Javed To the Department of International Relations, University of Peshawar In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Ph.D. in International Relations November, 2019 We, the undersigned have examined the thesis entitled ‘Pakistan’s Security Dilemma and the War on Terrorism’ written by Muhammad Tariq Javed, Ph.D. Scholar at the Department of International Relations, University of Peshawar, and do hereby approve it for the award of Ph.D. Degree.
Approved By: Supervisor: ______PROF. DR. IJAZ KHAN, Professor of International Relations, University of Peshawar
External Examiner: ______
Chairman: ______DR. Minhas Majeed Khan, Department of International Relations, University of Peshawar
Dean: ______PROF. DR. Johar Ali, Faculty of Social Sciences University of Peshawar
Dedication
I dedicate this study to my grandfather Mian Fazal Mahmood who instilled in me the fondness for learning.
i Declaration
I hereby declare that this dissertation is the outcome of my individual research and it has not been submitted to any other university for the grant of degree.
Muhammad Tariq Javed
ii Abstract
Pakistan‘s security issues have been spiraled to a ‗Security Dilemma‘. Pakistan‘s core issue of Jammu and Kashmir is central to its security outlook. Pakistan was militarily weak at the onset that pushed it to international military alliances, primarily aimed to overcome its military and infrastructural deficiencies through aid from Western allies. Participation in alliances was primarily against Indian threat. As a member of international alliances it could not use that lever to resolve the Jammu and Kashmir issue with India and rather became part of international political and ideological controversies escalating to a ‗Security Dilemma‘. The study finds out that Western strategic cultures are one of the factors and causes of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma besides Pakistan‘s chaotic political environment and inconsistent foreign policy. Pakistan is exposed to the global power players who exploit Pakistan‘s security fault lines to extract their interests. Pakistan is confronting the menace of terrorism from both NATO allies and Taliban. Pakistan is considered strategically facilitating the NATO alliance reinforcing NATO nations‘ strategies against Taliban insurgency. Pakistan is doubted at the same time by its allies in War on Terrorism of connivance with the anti-NATO Taliban. Pakistan has more strategic importance and significance than the abilities to handle it that put it in a state of Security Dilemma. The institutional imbalance and weaker political cadre is consequential to proactive institutional behavior that makes Pakistan politically incoherent. Nepotism, clanship, favoritism and authoritarian character of Pakistan‘s political culture has made it prone to foreign intrigues and ingress. Pakistan‘s borders with an irredentist Afghanistan on its West and India as rival involved in major issue of Jammu & Kashmir in the East. Iran is estranged on sectarian sensibilities and Russia (former USS.R) considers Pakistan as an ally of its rival capitalist camp. The Indian influence in Afghanistan quadrupled Pakistan‘s security problems. The Western concern for the terrorism and indifference to the sacrifices Pakistan has made in the ‗War on Terrorism‘ has created a ‘Security Dilemma‘. Pakistan‘s economy, society and geographical integrity are suffering due to international political intrigues. Pakistan‘s ‗Security Dilemma‘ has also been negatively influenced in the backdrop of its historical legacies and religious identity besides it‘s comparative potent military status among the Muslim fraternity and Islamic world vis-a- vis Western political dispositions and prejudice has compounded Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma with the advent of new security concepts.
iii This work studies extended variants of Pakistan‘s internal and external factors, Vis a Vis her capabilities and response. The study focuses on Pakistan‘s inconsistent security policies and indirect strategies to seek solution for Pakistan‘s only issue of Jammu & Kashmir with India. The study suggests solution to overcome Pakistan‘s security dilemma internally by improving political leadership, civil military relations, consistent foreign policy measures, reformation and extended education system to regain the control from extremist sections. Externally to have a neutral and national-interest-based foreign policies and not to act as foreign proxy with zero sum gains of her own. Pakistan needs to improve infrastructure and industrial base to be self-reliant. Our national stance and character need special focus for a cohesive and coherent response to threats leading to Pakistan‘s security dilemma. Only a self-reliant Pakistan will ensure its integrity and security.
iv Acknowledgements
All the praise to ‗ALLAH‘, the Almighty, the most merciful and beneficent and salutations on the Holy Prophet ‗Hazrat Muhammad‘ (Peace Be upon Him), a blessing for humanity and both the worlds and complete source of knowledge.
I am profoundly obliged for my academic achievements and endeavors to Pakistan Army and the University of Peshawar and above all; my parents, these institutions are major landmarks in my grooming and academic endeavors.
I acknowledge the support and guidance of all of my teachers, colleagues and friends for the completion of this work.
I am grateful to Professor Dr. Ijaz Khan Khattak, my Research Supervisor, who put me wise in so many ways, I learnt a lot from him. I am thankful to Professor Dr. Adnan Sarwar Khan, Professor Dr. Nasreen Ghufran, Professor Dr. Ghulam Mustafa and Professor Dr. Mansoor Khan, who all taught me different disciplines in International Relations which helped me understand concepts utilized in this study. I owe special thanks to Professor Dr. Taj Mehrum Khan for being kind enough to help me in reviewing some of my script. I also acknowledge Professor Dr. Touqeer Ahmad who was a great help and has gone through the fatigue of reviewing part of my study, he did it with utmost diligence. I thank Aysha Umair, Dr. Shumaila Farooq, Raza Rehman Qazi, Shakoor Safi, Saima Gul, Saira Bano Orakzai, Gul Marjan for their encouragement, understanding and cooperation. I thank Mr. Ishtiaq Ali for going through the draft.
I owe special thanks to Amir Aleem, Muhammad Najam-Us-Saqib Mujahid, Anushka Amir, and Muhammad Ashar Amir who gave all their love and peace of mind which was most encouraging in the accomplishment of this work.
I am grateful to the secretarial staff of IR department headed by Mr. Zahoor and Mr. Anees, who were always forthcoming and helping.
The best in this study is due to all those I have mentioned in acknowledgements however, I own all the deficiencies in my work.
v Contents Dedication...... i
Declaration ...... ii
Abstract ...... iii
Acknowledgements ...... v
List of Tables ...... xii
List of Figures ...... xiii
Acronyms and Abbreviations ...... xv
CHAPTER: 1 ...... 1
INTRODUCTION ...... 1
1.1: Introduction ...... 1 1.2: What Distinguishes this Work? ...... 12 1.3: Problem Statement ...... 13 1.4: Objectives ...... 13 1.5: Research Questions ...... 14 1.6: Subsidiary Questions ...... 14 1.7: Hypothesis ...... 14 1.8: Research Methodology...... 14 1.9: Theoretical Frameworks...... 15 1.10: Categorizations: Substance ...... 17 1.11: Scheme of Research ...... 18 CHAPTER: 2 ...... 19
THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ...... 19
2.1: Introduction ...... 19 2.2: Modern Theories ...... 21 2.2.1: Theory of Security Dilemma ...... 21
2.2.2: Theory of Realism ...... 24
2.2.3: Theory of Liberalism ...... 30
2.2.4: Metanarrative and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 32
2.2.5: The Concept of Islamic Co-Existence can overcome Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma .. 35
vi 2.3.6: Religious to Secular Political Thought and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 37
2.2.7: Conclusion ...... 41
CHAPTER: 3 ...... 43
INTERNAL FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA...... 43
3.1: Introduction ...... 43 3.2: Disintegration of the Muslim Empire and Colonial Impact on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 44 3.3: Kashmir Issue: Internal Aspects and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 46 3.4: Internal Discontent/Dissent and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 49 3.5: Social Injustice and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 52 3.6: Policy Formulation Process and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 55 3.7: The Overlapping Pak-Afghan Factors Impacting Pakistan‘s National Security ...... 60 3.8: Security Threat: After Afghan Jihad ended ...... 63 3.9: Pakistan: Political and Intelligentsia Contributing to Security Dilemma ...... 64 3.10: Muhajir Discontent and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 68 3.11: The Leadership Debacle ...... 69 3.12: Dependence and Its Impact on Security Dilemma ...... 71 3.13: The National Power Traits of Pakistan and its Impact on Security Dilemma ...... 73 3.14: FATA: The Tribal Culture and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 75 3.15: Institutional and Political Mistrust and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 77 3.16: NATO Incursion and Drone Strikes in FATA ...... 80 3.17: Taliban‘s Retaliation and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 82 3.18: Pakistan‘s Nuclear Capability ...... 85 3.19: Conclusion ...... 86 CHAPTER-4 ...... 87
PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA: EXTERNAL FACTORS...... 87
4.1: Introduction ...... 87 4.2: Pakistan‘s Geostrategic Location: A Major Factor of Security Dilemma ...... 90 4.3: Historical Factors: Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 95 4.3.1: British Legacy ...... 95
4.3.2: Great Game to Cold War ...... 96
4.3.3: Post-Cold War International Scenario ...... 97
vii 4.3.4: Muslims: In the Arena of Western Rivalry ...... 98
4.4: Political Concepts in post-9/11 Environment and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 101 4.4.1: Sovereignty ...... 101
4.4.2: National Interest ...... 107
4.4.3: Legitimacy ...... 108
4.4.4.: Strategic Communication ...... 109
4.5: International Political Realities and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 111 4.5.1: Post-World War-II Political Environment ...... 111
4.5.2: The Changed Structure of Nations ...... 113
4.5.3: Failure of Collective International Peace Forums ...... 114
4.5.4: The Character of Western Political and policy Approach ...... 116
4.5.5: International Interventionist Designs and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 116
4.5.6: Crafting of Interventionist Provisions and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 118
4.5.7: NATO: A New Formation with Old Legacies? ...... 120
4.5.8: The West‘s Strategy of Securitizing Elements of National Power of Rival Nations . 122
4.5.9: Strategic Reality and Political Crafting ...... 125
4.6: An Estranged Afghanistan and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 127 4.6.1: Post-9/11 Afghanistan and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 131
4.6.2: Pakistan Policy Shift and its Impact on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma...... 132
4.7: Pakistan Foreign Affairs and its Impact on Security Dilemma ...... 133 4.7.1: Rival Alliances and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma? ...... 135
4.7.2: Pakistan International Relations: Fault Lines ...... 136
4.8: The US Political Approach and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 137 4.8.1: The US Post-Cold War Shift: Reliance on Civilian Rule and Democracy ...... 138
4.8.2: Pakistan US Relations and its Impact on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 141
4.8.3: Strategy of Enemy Formation: The US Strategic Model ...... 143
4.8.4: The US Covert Operational Network in Pakistan? ...... 146
4.8.5: Contemporary Political Views and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 148
viii 4.9: Dependence: Impact on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 149 4.9.1: National Character as an External Factor Impacting Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma .. 152
4.9.2: Pakistani Leadership and US National Security Objectives ...... 154
4.9.3: Political and Religious Interpretations and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 156
4.9.4: Can a Regional IR Approach Overcome Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma? ...... 158
4.9.5: Low Intensity Conflict: War at the Doorstep ...... 160
4.9.6: China as Emerging Power Centre and its Impact on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ... 163
4.10: Contemporary Political Views and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 164 4.11: Conclusion ...... 165 CHAPTER: 5 ...... 167
WAR ON TERRORISM: IMAPCT on PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA ...... 167
5.1: Losses: Human/Life and Material ...... 167 5.2: Drone Attacks and its Negative Impact...... 168 5.3: Economic Fallout ...... 170 5.4: Prestige Loss in International Relations Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 172 5.5: Clash of National Interest and Response...... 173 5.6: Shifts under Coercion and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 174 5.7: The Impact of Abrupt Shift ...... 176 5.8: The Post-2004 Taliban Groups ...... 177 5.9: Interfaith Issues and the War on Terrorism ...... 178 5.10: Historical Outfall ...... 178 5.10.1: Collapse of Colonialism and Emergence of Nation States ...... 179
5.11: The Indian Intrigue and Policy of Low Intensity Conflict ...... 180 5.12: Impact of Terrorism on Pak-India Relations ...... 180 5.13: Indian Influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan Security ...... 182 5.14: Taliban and NATO: Divergent Causes and it Impact on Pakistan Security Dilemma ...... 182 5.14.1: How it Impacted Pakistan ...... 185
5.15: Elimination of Top Al-Qaeda Leadership has Increased Terrorism Threat? ...... 185 5.16: Example: Making a Strategic Space ...... 187 5.17: Foreign Ingress and Covert Operations ...... 187 5.18: Instances of Foreign Intriguing and Manipulations ...... 189
ix 5.19: Downgrading Pakistan Army in Foreign Game Plans ...... 191 5.20: MQM under Altaf Hussain: A Security Risk? ...... 192 5.21: Financial Corruption ...... 193 5.22: Media Manipulation and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma ...... 194 5.23: Negative Portrayal of Pashtun Society and the War on Terrorism ...... 197 5.24: Outfall on Pashtuns and Tribal Society ...... 198 5.25: Projecting Terrorism: A Precursor to Security Threat ...... 200 5.26: FATA Military Operations and its Impact on Security ...... 200 5.27: Pashtun Society and Fall out of Terrorism ...... 203 5.28: Conclusion ...... 205 CHAPTER-6: ...... 206
PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA: CAPABILITY AND RESPONSE ...... 206
6.1: Introduction ...... 206 6.2: National Index of Composite Power (NICP) ...... 207 6.3: National Character ...... 210 6.4: Education and Skill Factor ...... 213 6.5: Capability is not Dependent on Military Inventories only ...... 216 6.6: National Resolve and the Public Opinion Matters ...... 217 6.7: Indian Response to Freedom Fighters‘ Attack: Does it Reflect Pakistan‘s Capability? ... 218 6.8: Response Cohesiveness adds to Capability ...... 219 6.9: Strategic Depth: Is It Relevant to Capability? ...... 222 6.10: Nuclear Deterrence...... 225 6.11: Exploitation of Fractious Pakistani Society Erodes Capability and Response ...... 226 6.12 Zero-Sum Diplomacy ...... 227 6.13: The US‘s Historical Model as an Ally Undermine Pakistan‘s Capability ...... 228 6.14: Pakistan‘s Response in the Matter of War on Terrorism ...... 230 6.15: Effects of Internal Stability on Response and Capability...... 230 6.16: The Relativity of Corruption with the National Capability and Response ...... 232 6.17: Conclusion ...... 234 ANALYSIS ...... 235
Contextual Themes ...... 235 Content Analysis ...... 235 Finding...... 239
x Future Scenarios based on the Given Framework ...... 241 Scenario-1 (Short Term) ...... 241
Scenarios-2 (Medium Term) ...... 241
Scenario-3 (Long Term) ...... 242
Scenario-4 (Idealistic Approach) ...... 243
Recommendations ...... 245 CHAPTER-7: ...... 247
CONCLUSION ...... 247
Recommendation for future studies ...... 252
REFERENCES ...... 253
BIBLIOGRAPHY ...... 282
xi List of Table
Table-1: Casualties due to Terrorism in Pakistan ...... 168
xii List of Figures
Map-1: Political Map of Pakistan ...... xvii Map-2: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, NWFP (FATA) Pakistan ...... xviii Map-3: Jammu & Kashmir ...... xix Chart-1: The Scope of the Study ...... xx Map-4: Bangladesh ...... 45 Figure-1: Kashmiri Children ...... 47 Figure-2: Most Trustworthy Institution ...... 51 Figure-3: Dynamics of Freedom Movements gives Way to sub-Movements ...... 54 Figure-4: Afghan School Text Books during Jihad ...... 62 Figure-5: Reported Causalities due to US Drone Strikes ...... 81 Figure-6: Afghan Ethnic Groups and their Representation in Government ...... 85 Figure-7: The Share of GDP per capita in World Military Expenditure ...... 88 Figure-8: Durand Line ...... 90 Figure-9: The Dog Attack Faked as Propaganda against Muslims...... 110 Figure-10: Major Interventions in Muslim Countries by Projecting Terrorism as Justification ...... 118 Figure-11: The Technological Block, Iranian Nuclear Deal 2016 ...... 124 Figure-12: Pakistan and Afghan Elements of Common Heritage...... 128 Figure-13: Pakistan‘s Missile System bearing Name of Afghan War Heroes ...... 129 Figure-14: US aid to Pakistan...... 150 Figure-15: Number Think-Tanks ...... 151 Figure-16: Americans‘ Prejudice against Muslims ...... 157 Figure-17: Pakistan‘s Civil-Military Causalities 2003-2016 ...... 167 Figure-18: US Drone Attacks in Pakistan ...... 169 Figure-19: How People View Drone Attacks? ...... 169 Figure-20: Major Game Changers in the History ...... 179 Figure-21: Afghan Refugees in Europe ...... 204 Figure-22: Elements of National Power (Tangible) ...... 206 Figure-23: Composite Index of National Capability ...... 208 Figure-24: Elements of National Power ...... 209 Figure-25: School Dropout Data (Pakistan) ...... 214 Figure-26: The State of Dropouts from Schools in Pakistan ...... 215 Figure-27: Educational Institutions‘ Proportion ...... 216
xiii Figure-28: Composition of Council for Defense and National Security (CDNS) ...... 221 Figure-29: The Dynamics of Conflict ...... 238
xiv Acronyms and Abbreviations
CINP Composite Index of National Capability
Coin Counter Intelligence
CPEC China-Pakistan Economic Corridor
FATA Federally Administered Tribal Areas
GHQ General Head Quarters
KP Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
LIC Low Intensity Conflict
MFN Most Favored Nation
MQM Muttahida Qaumi Movement (Pakistan)
NAM Non-Aligned Movement
NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization
Pak-Af Pakistan-Afghanistan
R2P Responsibility to Protect
US United States (short form)
USA United States of America
USS.R Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
UN United Nations
UNSC United Nations‘ Security Council
xv Map-1: Political Map of Pakistan
Source: UN Cartographique Section (nationsonline, 2015)
xvi Map-2: Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, (NWFP) FATA, Pakistan
Source: Wikimedia (lahistoriaconmapas, 2015)
xvii Map-3: Jammu & Kashmir
Source: (WorldAtlas, 2016)
xviii Chart 1: The Scope of Study
Theoratical & Conceptual Perspectives
External Security Internal Factros Dilemma Facors
Capabilites & Response
xix CHAPTER: 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1: Introduction
Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma has been modified keeping in view the variant of security threats peculiar to Pakistani environment. This reformulation of Security Dilemma theory has been tested, proved and is central to the model of this study. It leads to same conclusion that is deduced in the theory of Security Dilemma consequential to more threats and insecurity. ―During the cold war the Security Dilemma was being interpreted as being essentially about the East-West conflict and Western policy was based on protecting its own interests without aggravating relations with the enemy.‖ (Robert J. Jackson, 2006 ).
I tried to experiment a new dimension of ‗Security Dilemma‘ concept on an expansive corpus using inverse triangle research method. Each of these factors can be singly focused for any further study with regard to our peculiar National Security Environment. My study entails major and sub variables to project a whole spectrum of factors contributing to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
The major element of ‗Security Dilemma theory is ‗mistrust‘. The usual academic discussion have so far been the conflict and rivalry between two powerful states. My argument is that Security Dilemma is not only specific to only two big powers who project their power and enhance it further in competition, in the wake of an emerging threat spiraling to a Security Dilemma . This kind of threat is not only military but extends to all that feeds the wholesome level of a National Power. This study is not an investigation into the mechanism of terrorism per se. This study finds out all the possible factors as to how a status quo power slips to other proactive and passive options that results in a Security Dilemma
However difference in Pakistan‘s situation and powerful states‘ scenario is that Pakistan as a status quo military power has been drifting to alliances and indirect security strategies due to its single Kashmir conflict with India where as big powers like USA and former USSR started enhancing military power to ward off security dilemma in making due to enhancement of the rival‘s military power.
1 The hypothesis, ‗Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is caused by the effects of dichotomous idealism that has led to tension between national interest and international power politics, short term and transient decision making and political and diplomatic complexities consequential to Pakistan‘s role in the international alliances including ‗The War on Terrorism.‘, modifies the scope of theory per se. This modification forms the originality of my work. The hypothesis presented in this study is not widely known in the academic literature contrary to existing academic literature in which security dilemma has been largely conceived as the result of security measures, which paradoxically undermines the security of the initially more security seeking state, this study argues that security dilemma could be the result of developments beyond the security policies of the security seeking individual state beyond post-World Wars paradigm. Keeping in view this modified theory the study of a number of variables considering Pakistan‘s predicaments lead to a comprehensive understanding of her Security Dilemma.
The study after introduction in first chapter explains the theoretical and conceptual framework in second chapter. This work investigates internal and external factors of Pakistan‘s security dilemma that encompasses multiple variables closely integrated as corollary to Pakistan‘s pursuits for security in third and fourth chapters respectively. Chapter 5 of this study is fully dedicated to Pakistan‘s most devastating security nightmare, The War on Terrorism: Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The chapter sounds culmination of all the lessons learnt so far through Pakistan‘s security history and ultimately brings Pakistan to a revisionist realization. It gives something to ponder what wrong had brought us to this increased security state and haunts of disability. Chapter 6 discusses response and capabilities vis a vis Pakistan‘s security dilemma. Chapter 6 ends with Analysis and Findings of the study. The 7th chapter is conclusion of the study that ends with the list of references and bibliography.
Pakistan is structured on political, ethnic, sectarian, ideological and cultural complexities. Pakistan became a phenomenal nation, a conglomerate of multi-ethnic, multicultural, sectarian, distinct tribal and communal groups bonded with the ideology of faith. Pakistan is situated on the geostrategic security junction that has historical legacies and is focus of present and future political game plans.
2 The real politic crafting with regard to the creation of new borders and thus social divisions has compounded Pakistan‘s security problems and makes it susceptible to internal and international power politics. The internal political instability and lack of elements of national power make it susceptible to the intrigues of power politics players. The divergent interests of Pakistan, United States of America (USA), and its Western allies entail an antithesis in their relations, as all are allies against War on Terrorism and remain in a state of confusion and mistrust to some extent in search of their own national interest.
All that Pakistan struggles to get material and moral support for the single issue of Kashmir with India; does not serve her national interest in this regard. The national interests of Pakistan and her Western allies‘ national interest has been strategically divergent. Thus it has been of lesser or no advantage. This has created a conflicting situation where Pakistan is expected to fight against all whom Western allies deem terrorists and a few among whom Pakistan considers good for her national interest. It is due to the fact that if the very Afghan political faction if sway hold on the government of Afghanistan will make a friendlier space and a security depth for Pakistan against its arch rival India.
Logically this is natural course of action in a region and particularly between neighbors. Afghanistan has even added merit on the base of common culture and tradition and above all a common faith. Pakistan proved Afghanistan as strategic depth and exemplified as ‗Ansar‘ when Soviet forces militarily intervened in Afghanistan and which led to a Jihad, supported by all the NATO nations in which Pakistan played a pivotal role. Pakistan became host to the world‘s biggest refugees‘ population of 3 million. It affected Pakistan‘s economy to its worsening security situation that has spiraled to her Security Dilemma.
Afghan insurgency against the presence of foreign forces is projected as terrorism to legitimatize the use of force to curb the local resistance. Meanwhile to legitimize their actions, Taliban project the presence of foreign forces on their land as an occupation and motivate their cadres to fight and resist against them. What creates a Security Dilemma for Pakistan is that what it harbors to support for its national interest has been widely projected a phenomenon of Terrorism. Pakistan lacks the resource and diplomatic articulation to justify its intentions of not attacking others or use Afghan factions loyal to her as an instrument of Terrorism but only to support them as friendly political actors in Afghanistan. This
3 international relation fault line has resulted in Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as her unintentional diplomatic ambition of friendly Afghan factions support creates suspicion and mistrust and makes it subject of a coercive counter actions aimed at changing its strategic course.
The term ‘Security Dilemma‘ the theory central to this study, was first used by John Herz (1950) in his article ‗Idealist Internationalism and the Security Dilemma‘ published in ‗World Politics’ journal. He described Security Dilemma as, ―Striving to attain security from [such] attack, they are driven to acquire more and more power in order to escape the power of others. This in turn, renders the others more insecure and compels them to prepare for the worst‖ (Herz, 1950).
According to the various theories, security is a multi-dimensional and multi-faceted study. The theory of ‗Realism‘ is the most implied theory of the struggle for power and peace (Morgenthau H. , 1948). This provides a major framework for US foreign policy that impacts international affairs and Pakistan as a nonmember NATO ally and so-called frontline state against communism since 1950s and finally in War on Terrorism. Theory of ‗Realism‘ has a complimentary relevance to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma; due to its strategic implications.
According to Booth and Wheeler (2007)‘, insecurity in general is not related to the scope of Security Dilemma. What makes its International Relation relevance is involving ‗others‘ mind‘, ―Security Dilemma is the unreliable uncertainty in the mind of the potential or actual target state about the meaning of the others‘ intentions and capabilities which create the dilemma…‖ Booth and Wheeler, define the concept of Security Dilemma as the inherent ambiguity in the military posture of a state, provoking another state for a fatal military response that puts it in a Security Dilemma. Security Dilemma is defined simply; that, what a country does to make it more secure will often make it less secure. (K Booth, 2007).
In another case Jervis one of the prominent scholar on Security Dilemma theory views:
―Great dangers arise if an aggressor believes that the status quo powers are weak in capability or resolve. This belief will lead to the former to test its opponent, usually starting with usually a small and apparently an unimportant issue. If the status quo power retreats they will not only lose the specific value at stake but, more important in the long run, will encourage the aggressor to press harder. Even if the defenders later recognize their plight and are willing to pay a higher price to prevent further retreats, they will find it increasingly difficult to convince the aggressor of their new found resolve.
4 The choice will then be between continuing to retreat and thereby scarifying basic values or fight …to avoid this disastrous situation, the state must display the ability and willingness to wage war.‖ (Jervis, 1976).
Thus, Security Dilemma is a condition where a state fails to predict an incomprehensible security threat. The Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is investigated by conflating and correlating it with the spiraling model and Security Dilemma frame.
Pakistan became part of international alliances to enhance its security and development of its economic infrastructure. This is a normal practice, but in the case of Pakistan it opted to become part of alliances by pledging outside its capacity and military capability; right at the onset when it was just a newly born state. In the mid-fifties, its Governor General Ghulam Muhammad put the visiting US Foreign Secretary John Foster Dulles in good diplomatic humor when he suggested becoming a frontline state against the perceived communist advances (Sattar, 2005). Pakistan circumvented its foreign policy beguiling as a frontline state against communism that in fact was a bid to harness international support for its primary dispute over the state of Jammu and Kashmir with India. By doing so it became subject to all the outfalls of power politics of the great powers putting it in a Security Dilemma which spiraled from bad to a worst state. Pakistan was sucked into international power politics of the big powers who adopted ‗Realist‘ and ‗Neorealist‘ strategies and became prey to the outfall of its own circumstances leading to her security dilemma.
Snyder, (1999) studied Security Dilemma within an alliance. It reflects on Pakistan‘s situation as an ally with the United States and the West on the war on terrorism. This focuses on Security Dilemma in a political alliance. The major theme of this work is, that
―Once an alliance forms, a counter alliance necessarily follows, since there is no way of knowing that the first alliance is intended for defensive purpose. The eventual result is the division of the system into two rival coalitions. This outcome is worse than all around abstentions (not being part of the alliance) because each state has incurred the risk and burden of alliance with little improvement in its security‖ (Snyder, 1984, p. 461).
Pakistan could not anticipate that in the coming decades Pakistan will be part of hot war against the communist ideology. Pakistan played up coldly aligning with the US and the West. This developed into a major cause of its security liability that has been formed into a Security Dilemma. The model seemed to be no different from the rest of its international,
5 political and security history. This tendency to jump over the conclusion is evident from the fact that in spite of a clarification from the US, that its military aid is not meant to be used against India, Pakistan still opted to be part of the treaties that were a direct concern for the ideological game plan of West against the ex-USSRand of a little or no avail to Pakistan‘s National Interest (Sattar, 2007).
Pakistan‘s diplomatic and strategic endeavors have mostly been blown back as these have been found inconsistent with peoples‘ aspirations, short term policy fault and predisposed to foreign interest and dictates at time. Pakistan‘s security strategies seem devoid of the considerations of international security cultures. This kind of dichotomy in Pakistan‘s foreign and security policy has led to its Security Dilemma.
The literature used in this study measures securitization that extends to other spheres than just military and explains Pakistan‘s fault lines leading to security dilemma. A brief literature review that follows will highlight it further.
(Barry Buzan, 1998)) work is a pioneer in presenting the extended concept of security to Environmental, Societal, and Political security. Previously, security studies were mostly discussed in terms of military security only. Peter Hough study is also part of a new school of thought which considers security an extended study and not just restricted to the realm of military security only (Hough, 2014).
The role of state actors and their strategies impacting security of nations is elaborately covered in (Emil J. Kichner, 2010) explores security culture of nations. This work has juxtaposed the strategic culture of the nations that make a crucial factor in the making of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Formulation of preemptive, interventionist and compellence theories and concepts like Responsibility to Protect (R2P) (UN, The Responsibility to Protect, 20114), a resolution passed by the United Nations that validates international intervention in a particular country to protect the people perceived to be suppressed by their government, have widened the scope of the security studies realm.
The Indian shift in security policy of ‗offensive defense‘ is a new heightened security concern for Pakistan. The Indian shift in operational posture is highlighted by Islamabad Policy Research Institute (IPRI) as following:
6 ―In an international politics where states exist in anarchy and prefer to maximize their security have two basic strategic options, i.e., defensive and offensive. ―Offensive-defense‖ theory also called ―security dilemma theory‖, given by Stephen William Van Evera, argues that international conflict and war are more likely when offense has the advantage over defense, while peace and cooperation are more probable when defense has the advantage over offense. It argues that in a world where there is an offensive advantage, expansionist grand strategies will be more common, states will adopt offensive military doctrines, arms races will emerge, foreign policies will be confrontational, crises will be frequent, states will shroud their capabilities in secrecy to conceal military & economic vulnerabilities, and preemptive and preventive strikes will become more likely. States that follow defensive strategy attempt to defend their territory and resources they control and don‘t seek to expand territory. The theory also goes on to say and suggests that states that adopt offensive strategies would tend to succeed in international politics, whereas those states that adopt defensive strategies would tend to fail.‖ (Chandio, 2015)
The nuclear threshold keeps both restrained but pushing them to ‗Low Intensity Conflict‘ (LIC) i.e. the urban sabotage acts and exploiting each other‘s weakness like social and religious divides, separatist movements, and sectarian splits. India now resort to strategic response. Pakistan‘s ‗diplomatic isolation, Indian support to Baluchistan separatists‘ movements, and carrying out terrorist acts like involvement in attacks on Pakistan‘s major military installations, schools and on vital national symbols. Pakistan foreign office issued a statement saying, ―India is financing terrorism in Pakistan and open evidence are available on its involvement in subversive activities‖ (Hindu, 2016).
India‘s national security advisor to Prime Minister Narendra Modi; explained his doctrine of ‗offensive defense‘ in two lectures delivered on two Indian forums, in 2014 and 2015. His views confirm India‘s involvement in terrorism in Pakistan. He implied that it is matter of spending more money to hire mercenaries (Taliban) to exploit Pakistan‘s internal weaknesses, naming Baluchistan trouble and implying to avail services of ‗so-called‘ Taliban to stage sabotage acts in Pakistan. He said, ‗The offensive defensive mode‘ required going into Pakistan and tackling the problem where it originated‖. To make it clear, he used the famous phrase. ―You may do one Mumbai; you may lose Baluchistan.‖ (AsiaTimes, 2016). Pakistan faces a Security Dilemma due to shift in India‘s threatening posture.
7 The counter actions are likely to up the ante as has been seen that India and Pakistan came to the brink of war very often provoked by a major incidents; threatening security and which both blame each other for.
Xe Services (a private foreign security agency, popularly known as ‗Black Water‘ which discarded previous name) and the intrastate terrorist groups have increased the level of security threat to the state and public safety. This became evident after the capture of CIA private operative ‗Raymond Davis‘ who killed two Pakistani intelligence operatives who were pursuing him for information on his activities. This model portrays a new kind of military threat deepening further the Security Dilemma and provoked response where ―Pakistan has demanded that the United States steeply reduce the number of Central Intelligence Agency operatives and Special Operations forces working in Pakistan, and that it halt CIA Drone strikes aimed at militants in northwestern Pakistan.‖ (Jane Perlez, 2011).
Instances of US armed intrusion into Pakistan‘s sovereign territorial limits, without the information and approval of the government of Pakistan are seen as major security breaches. Pakistan is pressed to act against the Haqqani network in Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) of Pakistan. US threatened that it would consider a direct military action in FATA. (Issam Ahmad , 2011). It is one of such compromising examples that has been kept deliberately ambiguous and is an indicator of fragility, weakness and lack of leverage in Pakistan‘s foreign policy (Aljazeera, 2011). The deteriorating Pakistan, US relations has upped the ante with the dispute with India still unsettled and a not-too-friendly; hostile government in Afghanistan and an estranged Iran. This all gathers to make it uneasy and crucial for Pakistan‘s national Security Dilemma.
Pakistan was threatened to be sent back to Stone Age if it did not comply with the acts conducive to the interest of the United States of America. Pakistan became trapped in popular aspirations of its people and the demands of international powers. The former President of Pakistan General (retired) Pervez Musharraf revealed this in an interview that, ―…the [Military] Intelligence Director [Pakistan Army] had told him that Mr. Armitage (then United States‘ Deputy Secretary of State) had said: ―…Be prepared to be bombed. Be prepared to go back to the Stone Age‖ adding, ―I think it was a very rude remark.‖ (NYT, 2006).
8 The security report for the month of March, 2012 released by the Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies indicates the level of threat posed to the state of Pakistan. 18,399 people were killed in armed conflicts and in suicidal attacks between 2004 and April, 2012, which shows a much higher rate than all the wars Pakistan has fought so far Between 2004 and first quarter of 2012 unmanned remotely controlled drones operated by United States‘ Central Intelligence Agency in Federally Administrated Tribal Areas killed 2,578 and injured 1,085 civilians (PIPS, 2012).
People‘s discontentment with poor law and order and lack of good governance has also contributed to the sense of insecurity and uncertainty. There are aspersions in certain quarters that the government itself is a major cause of a security risk as it remains oblivious to security threats. The case of a memo written by Pakistani Ambassador to United States of America in which he sought USA‘s help on the alleged connivance and on the behalf of President of Pakistan Asif Ali Zardari to ward off military takeover in return for compromising its own intelligence operations is an evident example, a fact denied by the former Pakistani Ambassador to United States of America, Hussain Haqqani but which has shown the permeating uncertainty and disharmony within Pakistan‘s civil military institutions contributing to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma (FP, 2011).
Former British High Commissioner to Pakistan, Sir Morrice James identifies the troubling dichotomy with regard to the Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. While pointing out provision of an airbase near Peshawar by Pakistan to United States for electronic intelligence gathering on ex-USSR during the cold war era he judged that ―These arrangements admirable though they seem on the surface in fact contained seeds of future trouble.‖ (James M. , 1992).
Brian Cloughley‘s work gives a modern view of Pakistan Army and the challenges it faces Cloughley possesses intimate knowledge of the Pakistan Army‘s professional and military role (Cloughley, 2016).
Ian Talbot has presented an elaborate and updated political history of Pakistan. This is a deep investigation with the latest facts and detailed commentary on Pakistan‘s political turmoil and security lapses. Ian observes Pakistan‘s transition from military to ‗democratic forces (Ian, 2009).
9 A modern view of evolution of warfare and the latest security issues in the global context is finely researched by a British military officer, General Rupert Smith on changing war paradigm from interstate industrial war to war among people and the phenomena of non-state actors, a study that reflects the impact of insurgency, terrorism and the fallout of NATO alliance‘s countermeasures on the state of Security Dilemma in the case of Pakistan (Smith R. , 2009).
Hussain Haqqani has dilated upon in his work ‗Pakistan: between Mosque and Military‘, on the military dictatorships, the religious extremists, and the politics of Pakistan (Haqqani, 2005). In the same tone, but with a different approach, Ahmad Rashid work ‗Descent into Chaos‘ is a sharp and critical analysis of Pakistan‘s predicament under susceptible chaos and security (Rashid, 2008)). In the context of Pakistan‘s traditional security concern make it mandatory to have an insight of the genesis of the Kashmir issue, has been considerably covered in an authoritative work, ‗Kashmir: a disputed legacy, 1846-1990‘ by [Alastair] (Lamb, 1998), has studied explain the roots of an issue most related to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
A unique factor has been explored by John G. Stoessingers is the anatomy of leaders, that put nations in a Security Dilemma. This study gives substance to analyze military and political dictators‘ tendencies, contributing to the creation of the Security Dilemma (Stoessinger J. G., 2003).
(Dupree, 1997) in a very elaborate historical work on Afghanistan to sense the legacy of Security Dilemma embedded in the historical chronicles. ‗Afghanistan: Mullah, Marx, and Mujahid‘ by Ralph and Naby‘s helps, to analyze historical, cultural, and ‗Jihad’ factors and its impact on the Security Dilemma of Pakistan (Ralph H, 1998).
Clapham‘s study goes into the foreign policy making idiosyncrasies, similar to Pakistan‘s situation. The study focuses on the external imperatives that restrain an independent approach with regard to developing countries‘ interest in foreign policy making process (Clapham, 1977, p.5).
After sixth century the clash between Islamic civilization and Judeo-Christians consisting mostly on Western civilizations erupted into so many interfaith and inter civilizations issues. Very well researched work by Moulana Syed Abu-al-Haasan Ali Nadvi ‗Islamiyat aor
10 Maghrabiyat ki Kashmakash’ (The Clash of Islam and the West) written in late sixties, appraises the interfaith tension between Islam and the West that makes the root cause of mutual insecurity between Islam and the Judeo-Christian world. According to the author the security threat faced by the Muslim states is due to inherent interfaith prejudices that has caused crusades and the present time wars and has put the whole Muslim world in particular and the world peace in general in a jeopardy and Security Dilemma (Nadvi, 1981). This makes it more asserting when read in the paper written by Samuel Huntington, ‗The Clash of Civilizations’. This study has some common ground, but with a different approach converges on the same theme as presented by Moulana Abu-al-Hassan Nadvi.
Samuel Huntington‘s ‗Clash of Civilizations‘ has been implied in two general clashing formations of Muslim and the Judeo-Christians world (Huntington S. P., 1993, pp. 22-49) This work is relevant to the Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as Pakistan is part of the Muslim world and is the second most populated Muslim state after Indonesia and the only Muslim Nuclear power among the Muslim world which confronts all the inter-civilization prejudicial effects that makes a factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The confrontational fault lines between Muslims and different civilizations has been discussed in Huntington essay which has been upgraded to the length of a book (Huntington S. , 1997).
Compilations of perspectives of different scholars around the world about the future vision with regard to new geopolitical realities faced by Pakistan, a comparatively latest literature edited by Shafqat Saeed revolves around the argument that, ―The context and contours of Pakistan are undergoing radical transformations; as the military regime realigns itself in the global arena; as Islamic forces re-evaluate and redesign their strategies in society; and as new dynamic with the United States, China, Russia, India and the Central Asian States are being forged‖ (Shafqat, 2007).
Rand‘s paper relating to the war on terrorism investigating the extent of involvement of the parties and their potentials is valued scholarly resource that would help in many regards to know some facts provided by the people involved and contributed by those related to the war on terrorism. To link the context of neighboring countries and to understand the related security impacts literature related to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma available on electronic and print media has been extensively used in this study. Due to lack of resource at the personal
11 level data, tables, and graphs related to the topic explain the study figuratively have been inserted from authentic sources.
This study is aimed to benefit research institutions and academia to further investigate new phenomena emerging in the changing geopolitical scenario in region affecting Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma and the consequence of Pakistan‘s status as an ally in War on Terrorism. Intelligentsia, policy makers, military leadership and in general all the foreign and diplomatic community will benefit from the outcome of this study and will facilitate some policy considerations in making a better national security strategy. The study will help mitigate threats posed by Security Dilemma.
1.2: What Distinguishes this Work?
Security Dilemma has been reformulated in this study as it fits Pakistan into it as a status quo model rather than how it uses to be applied on super powers‘ struggle to enhance their powers to make them secure that spiraled to a Security Dilemma rather. This reformulation of the theory of Security Dilemma makes it an original and new approach.
This work includes the new international relations concepts pertinent to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The new concepts of R2P, and changed and new connotations of national interest, and sovereignty makes it instep to contemporary security strategies.
The coercive and covert actions like more visible co-option of privates as state force organ is a new factor in security studies. This aspect has not so far been analyzed in the research works carried so far with regard to Pakistan.
Capabilities are normally focused in terms of purely military inventories. This work has discussed full range of elements of national power with particular focus on Pakistan. This study takes this important aspect into account to conclude composite view findings.
The concepts of just war, Islamic view, the Western modern political view and Judeo- Christian concept of war are reviewed in this work that impacts Pakistani security context as a leading Muslim state.
12 Securitization of so many factors has become the next debating point in academia. The study includes even education aspect in fairly detailed manner in the case of Pakistan and makes it relevant to Pakistan‘s security. We can save lot of our foreign exchange by creating indigenous skills. This can only be possible in a revolution in education curriculum contributing to various industrial sectors including military industry. US is one such example excelling in military industry which we know as ‗Military Industrial Complex‘. This study is in pace with fast changing geopolitical scenarios.
1.3: Problem Statement
Pakistan‘s endeavor to improve her security has entangled her into more acute internal and international issues beyond her national power capabilities. Pakistan‘s only problem was the issue of Jammu & Kashmir with India. Being a weaker state it slipped into alliances losing focus of her only issue and escalating National Security to a vast array of internal and international complexities to the apex issue of terrorism, ever increasing her security predicament and dilemma.
1.4: Objectives
1. To find out the causes of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. 2. To find out historical factors with regard to Pakistan‘s security history and its overall outcome. 3. Conceptualize Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma, in the light of social, political and military cultural constructs. 4. To find factors of security culture of NATO nations, impacting Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. 5. To find out effects of Pakistan‘s participation in the war on terrorism and its fall out on its national security. 6. To study causes of trust deficit that has contributed to the Security Dilemma. 7. To find out viable options for a better Pakistan‘s national security strategy to ward off Security Dilemma.
13 1.5: Research Questions
○ What are social, political, military and international factors, of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma?
1.6: Subsidiary Questions
Is Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma a historical legacy or a post-colonial phenomenon with regard to geopolitics? Is Pakistan more prone to regional or a wider range of international security threats? How does ‗War on Terrorism‘ impacts Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma? What are the viable options for a better security strategy in the wake of geopolitical trends of the international powers and their security cultures?
1.7: Hypothesis
Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is caused by the effects of dichotomous idealism, tension between national interest and international power politics and Pakistan‘s role as an ally in the War on Terrorism.
1.8: Research Methodology
Mixed Research Method has been applied to this work. This method ‗expands understanding from one method to another‘. (Tashakkori, 2003). Empirical research method is based on personal observations and field experience that gives added value to this study. Qualitative data with regard to security threats has been categorized in terrorist acts and causalities and have been tabulated and coded to quantify the terrorists‘ attacks and to assess the threat level that risks Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The data is in terms of number of drone attacks and the number of casualties it has caused to date, retaliatory and terrorist attacks and loss to economy. Within an overall framework of mixed method, qualitative method has been relied more in this study. ―…Qualitative procedures rely on text and image data‖ (W.Creswell, 2009). Since the investigations pertain to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemmas and war on terrorism
14 which is a perpetual contemporary issue in real time and conforms to personal observations too, therefore, the data thus obtained is highly reliable and credible. However, some of the military references remain wanting as a matter of operational confidentiality but does not impact much to achieve the objectives of the study. Images, tables, views of veterans have been gathered by interacting with them and meetings, on the side lines of seminars and workshops organized and conducted in the University of Peshawar. This study has not been sponsored and has been conducted on self-help basis therefore there is no conflict of interests involved. Data from Pew Research Center and South Asian Terrorism Portal have been relied upon and included in this study.
I have been to almost all the terrorist stricken areas of Pakistan mentioned in the study that gave me an intimate observational opportunity that forms part of empirical method of research. However evidence to this effect has been embedded by neutral an unbiased open sources supporting my hypothesis.
1.9: Theoretical Frameworks
Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma conforms to theory of Security Dilemma peculiar to its own environment. This theoretical framework explains as to how a state drifts into security crisis as a result of transient or wrongly perceived measures to improve it. Starting from the only issue of annexation of Jammu & Kashmir with Pakistan or India through a plebiscite it kept drifting to be part of foreign alliances not directly impacting its threat perceptions and finally and ally in the War on Terrorism which was owned as US client but which became its security nightmare pushing it to a devastated state almost beyond control. It add another dimension to the Security Dilemma theory that establishes a spiralling security threat due to increase in power of a certain state.
The sub theoretical applications are related to ‗Realism, Liberalism‘, and new concepts i.e. gender issues, feminism, human rights issue, financial regulation regimes like Financial Action Task Force (FATF), money laundering etc. Theory of Realism conflates in this study to effect the impact of Foreign Strategic Cultures and their National Interest. For example Pakistan‘s Nuclear power status is in conflict with the world‘s dominant powers practicing
15 the theory of Realism; deny any scientific or other resource that might affect their monopoly one power. This becomes one of the haunting security scenarios for Pakistan that is much talked about and is a form of security dilemma.
The theory of Liberalism, a hallmark of European and Western Renaissance believes in individuals‘ liberty and laissez faire, and in contrast with Pakistan‘s comparative conservative social character. Not that the whole Pakistan‘s social fabric is woven to conservative characterization. The urbanized and now fast becoming educated sections of rural communities aligns themselves with the Western liberal ideals. Same social character measure can be equally applied to Western sections of societies i.e. Catholic and orthodox and fundamentalist sections of the Christian and Western world. However, in broader terms Pakistan is perceived to be a developing but conservative society. Both might believe in a common good but different connotations results in international disharmony.
The study conflates the theories applied in this study to match respective regularities to shape causes and its effects and finally findings of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Theory of Security Dilemma is central to model this study with a slight reformation to fit into characteristics of Pakistan‘s political environment. The relevant literature corresponds to findings after it has been correlated and conflated with the matching regularities of other complimenting theories. A number of theories in this study give a framework that predicts the future prospects of Pakistan‘s Security predicament. It starts with the theory of ‗Security Dilemma‘ to find the spiraling model of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The interventionist concepts like R2P, the ‗Theory of Realism‘ and the ‗International Strategic Cultures‘ give a relevance to their impact on security perceptions and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as the content of this work fits into the model of International Political Economy and political strategies that relies on the elements of national power and real politick. The Constructivism Theory has been conflated with the religious and conservative mindset of the Pakistani society which contributes to their religious cultural and social sensibilities. The Neorealist concepts of sovereignty, national interest have been incorporated to predict the Security Dilemma of Pakistan under coercive strategies. The view of Henry A. Kissinger are specially deliberated under a main heading as he is most prominent international political scholar having great influence on the American foreign policy that impacts Pakistan‘s Security
16 Dilemma indirectly. He is the major driver of ‗Realist‘ school and has been deeply involved in US-Pakistan affairs and the world in general that directly relates to Pakistan‘s national security. The relevance of other doctrines and new political concepts to this work is explained within the text. An example of the political Islam by critically examining the Constitution of Medina ‗Meesaq-e-Medina‘ in full details have been inserted to juxtapose it with the modern international relations‘ approaches. The Islamic view on resisting the tyrant has been compared to differentiate acts of terrorism and resistance for a just cause. The Western concept of Just war is reviewed to contrast with conflicting views that impact on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. .
1.10: Categorizations: Substance
The period between 1980 and 2016 in this study is of primary focus relating to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma and the War on Terrorism. The period from 1947-1980 establishes Pakistan‘s international relations‘ orientation. Muslim conquests in seventh century and the advent of Islam and subsequent Muslim rules in Subcontinent have been revisited to establish the anatomy of perceptional, ideological and religious construct. Major emphasis of this study is about the Pakistan‘s dilemma culminating to its height between 1980 and 2016, encompassing all factors and events coded for the purpose of finding Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma and the War on Terrorism. Examples of society under Muslim rules in the Subcontinent and their plight at the end of the Muslim Empires and Caliphate have been explored to answer secondary questions to find out the evolution of Muslim character and perspectives in modern politics and democratic system. The sensibilities and perspective thus formed are relevant to strategies, politics and ideology of Pakistan and its impact on the Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma and War on Terrorism.
Mixed Research Method is used in this study. Evidences from primary and secondary sources, Published books, interviews and talks have been used for detailing necessary facts, to substantiate this study. Published and unpublished research work relevant to this study is also used. Mixed research method is used in this study. Proceedings of seminars, symposia and group studies during my tenure of research in University of Peshawar were very
17 important sources as it helped direct interaction with most renowned scholars, academics, military leaders and diplomats.
1.11: Scheme of Research
Chapter One: Introduction to the study, highlighting its significance, literature review, research question, hypothesis, methodology and objectives.
● Chapter two: Theoretical and Conceptual Framework: In this chapter the conceptual and theoretical setting for this study has been be discussed. ● Chapter Three: Internal Factors Contributing to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma: A detailed account of internal factors that makes Pakistan‘s national security critical. ● Chapter Four: Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma and the Factors of International Security Cultures: In this chapter relations between international security perceptions and its impact on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma have been analyzed. ● Chapter Five: Fallout of the War on Terrorism on Security of Pakistan. In this chapter the impact of the War on Terrorism affecting its national security and the role of Pakistan have been discussed. ● Chapter Six: Pakistan‘s response to security challenges, capability and potential: A critical analysis have been made as to what has been Pakistan‘s response to threats to its national security and what did it yield. This would lead the study to find out fault lines in Pakistan‘s security response that has apparently added to its Security Dilemma. ● Analysis: Analysis of the whole content of the study has been carried out in this section ● Chapter Seven: Conclusion: This chapter concludes the study.
18 CHAPTER: 2
THEORETICAL AND CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK
2.1: Introduction
Creation of Pakistan coincided with end of Second World War and the process of establishment of international order for peace, by war-torn Western allies. The West had fully transformed itself in modern secular thinking influenced by reason, rational thinking analogous to variants of human nature and objective political conditions. The development in science and technology also played a great role in influencing the Western political thinking.
Theoretical perspective weighs the constructs of a given issue to determine a model or paradigm. A theory is a set of regularities to correlate ground realities and facts to extrapolate historical evidence. It leads to predict or give a fair probability of future events those might help guide the future course of action to resolve problem areas. No one particular theory is sufficient to frame the facts in question needed to model a study. (Jill Steans, 2001). In most of the cases it has to be a variety of diverse political or social actions rooted in history and respective way of life that needs more than one theory to help a study conclude better.
The advent of modern theories is rooted in Greek philosophical traditions. Thinkers like Socrates, Plato and Aristotle based their philosophies on reason. Roman Empire used Christianity as political measure for Christians‘ unification. Church became a big authority in the hand of Christian clergy in Roman Empire. The fundamental feature of excommunication in the hand of Church to implement its authority became an anti-social element that created anti-Church and desire for secular feelings among the people and especially intelligentsia. That started movement for the separation of Church from the state. The Gregory VIII‘s reforms separated the Church from State affairs (Loughlin, 2016). Ironically about 800 years earlier in 313 AD the religious freedom was allowed by Edict of Milan ending the state suppression of those who practiced Christianity (Britannica, 2003).
Muslims‘ conquests spread to other continents starting from 7th century, remained averse to the development of natural philosophy, with strong belief in religious absolutes. ―It was far
19 better, many of the powerful theologians and opinion makers believed, to trust in the Qur‘an and the religious law and traditions to understand and cope with the world. To trust in the reasoning of natural philosophers-the falasifa- was regarded by many Muslim clerics as dangerous.‖ (Grant, 2006).
The Western aversion to religious influence in state affair is not directly related to Islam but it has an effect of their own not so good experience of sharing power with Church since the days of Roman Empire much earlier than the birth of Islam even. The Western nations viewed the Post-Second World War political world through the same historical ethos. However, the conflict with Islam entailed other issues and prejudices.
Islamic jurisprudence is an integral part of state affairs and the state itself called ‗Khilafat1’ is responsible to protect minorities. The West saw Islamic political order with skepticism as it did not conform to their modern political order that divided nations for the political ascendency.
The Occidental and Oriental local social experiences influenced the evolution of political and theoretical constructs. The historical conflict in religious and political perspectives became a factor of present time Security Dilemma which manifests, peculiar regularities in religious, philosophical and political practices internationally, influenced by perspectives in theoretical forms.
According to Faigley Lester of University of Pittsburgh, ‘Modernism‘ usually refers to Neo- Classical, Enlightenment assumptions concerning the role of reason, or rationality, or scientific reasoning, play in guiding our understanding of the human condition.‖ (Lester, 2009). As explained by Jean-Francois Lyotard a French postmodern political thinker, ―…postmodernism as it is generally understood involves a radical break, both with a dominant culture and aesthetic and with a rather different moment of socioeconomic organization against which its structural novelties and innovations are measured: a new social or economic moment (or even system), which has variously been called media society…consumer society…‖ (Lyotard, 1979). Theory of Realism, Liberalism and faith based precepts are discussed to evaluate the international social and political construct that
1 An Islamic ruling order set out by the close companions of the prophet Muhammad s.a.w. after his death.
20 has become a cause of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Answers to these questions will be sought by observing the regularities permeating in these theories, concepts and doctrines. These are conflated with the factors of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma to find out answers: What is Security Dilemma? What are the theoretical and conceptual dimensions that contribute to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma?
2.2: Modern Theories
2.2.1: Theory of Security Dilemma
‗Security Dilemma‘ in international relations is defined by (Ken Booth, 2007), ―That a country does to make it more secure will often make it less secure. This is because its actions will make other countries more likely to fear it and want to attack it before it gets too strong.‖, he further explains that, ―Security Dilemma is integral to the International Relations as states interact and are usually not sure of the other‘s intentions… A dilemma by definition is worse than a problem‖ Security Dilemma is a condition where a state fails to appreciate its responses in the presence of an incomprehensible security threat. Interfaith and civilizations‘ conflicts have become the most predominant national and international security issues which range in definition between, freedom fighters, Mujahedeen, Taliban, Jihadis, fundamentalists, Islamists and finally terrorists depending on the expediency and the pitch of the conflict. Transformation of international politics from a pluralistic, to unipolar status is prone to Security Dilemma in the absence of potent countervailing power. A pluralistic forum with countervailing synergic capabilities work as a restraining force to block hegemonic and unilateral actions threatening nation which resorts to coercive means at the cost of other national interests.
Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma in this study has been framed in the terms of multiple theoretical variables and not in response to a particular military action that spirals the security threshold. It is not a classic paradigm of an escalation that emits out of the single factor of military threat like Cuban crisis in October 1962 in which USSR and US became on the verge of launching nuclear war fearing nuclear attack from each other. Intensification of threats to Pakistan has many dimensions to it. Its single conflict with India sounds less threatening than the ‗awe‘ of foreign influence, intriguing, and manipulations due to its
21 character as a strategic, ideological and Islamic state in the contemporary international relations‘ realm. It has undercurrents of nationalist, ethnic, linguistic, provincial, and secessionist tendencies permeating its political folds. The factors of Security Dilemma of Pakistan are open to international power politick manipulations. Pakistan has given higher bids to international power players to assuage international opinion and favorable resolution on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir with India. Compensating weakness with alliances at the cost of becoming part a bigger and escalating confrontation as compared to primary regional issue of Kashmir has complicated Pakistan‘s security options not matching to its capability and political scope. The number of arms might not make it look security threat but how the people perceive about another society, or a group of people basing on fundamental difference of values and the way they perceive their intentions.
According to the modern terms a finer explanation comes from Barry Buzan who argues in his work ‘People States and Fear’ for a wider range of security study which includes political, economic, social, environmental as well as military aspects and which is also defined in broader international terms (Buzan, 2008 (Second revised edition)) For much of the cold war period the subject was dominated by the idea of national security which was largely defined in militarized terms. Buzan‘s extended scope leads to securitization of so many other areas of concerns that extends from military to environment. This extended security paradigm results in equally extended range of security threats; that adds to security liabilities. Thus it widens the scope of misjudged corollary leading to Security Dilemma.
The elements of security threat have been deemed, by modern political and social scientists embedded in human nature thus its response disregarding induction of morality but the reaction to reality. (Hobbes, 1914), said, ―We are needy and vulnerable. We are easily led astray in our attempts to know the world around us. Our capacity to reason is as fragile as our capacity to know; it relies upon language and is prone to error and undue influence. When we act, we may do so selfishly or impulsively or in ignorance, on the basis of faulty reasoning or bad theology or others‘ emotive speech‘. Thomas Hobbes emphasizes on, ―Natural condition of mankind…a state of violence, insecurity and constant threat‖. Hobbes finds a refuge for security in a power which he symbolizes with Leviathan. ―The best we can hope for is peaceful life under an authoritarian-sounding sovereign‖ or Leviathan. Hobbes keeps religion
22 subservient to Leviathan, although he believes in the presence of God, which is inherently contradictory to what he professes. Thomas Hobbes theory with regard to Security Dilemma has a relative importance, though it has been rebutted in certain regards to its application. Rousseau criticizes this by linking it to his ‗social contract‘. His criticism can be summarized that a contract between parties on a single security detriment that assures peace is impaired by the lures of their inherent appetite driven by their interest that renders the contract void and dissolved; resulting in mistrust and insecurity the basic ingredients of Security Dilemma.
There is another dimension to the Security Dilemma that is common to all the nations. (Stoessinger J. G., 2010), says that, ―We must bear in mind not only the ‘objective‘ causes, but also the personalities that tend to unleash wars. Who are these people that are dragging us to the abyss, what can we do to stop them? If we cannot stop them, can we limit the damage they are able to inflict?‖ This is a contemporary view of nature of mankind explained in the theory of Thomas Hobbes. What made Hobbes conscious of this fact were his own insecure circumstances as children. The modern military history scholar dilated on decisions that took nations to war and at the verge of Security Dilemma. ―They made them (war decision) in fear in trembling but they made them nonetheless. In most cases, they were not evil people bent on destruction but frightened and entrapped by self-delusion. They based their policies on fears, not facts, and were singularly devoid of empathy. Misperception, rather than conscious evil design, seems to have been the leading villain in the dramas.‖
The divergent interest creates conflicts, owing to inherent antithesis in the equally divergent actions of the parties even if it is a partner in an alliance. This enigmatic relation is reflected in a Washington Post article that makes it very clear, ―During the Cold War, Washington considered Pakistan an ally against the Soviet Union. Under President Ayub Khan in the 1960s and President General Mohammed Zia-ul-Haq in the 1980s, the United States gave Pakistan substantial aid — $3.2 billion in a five-year package in the early ‘80s, and about $8 billion in 2011. Yet, Pakistan followed its own path.‖ (Anatol Lieven, 2011). The parties in an alliance realize their goals through the strategies of proactive and defensive security mechanism depending on the inherent capability and powers of the parties in an expedient alliance. It also depended on the way the men at the helm of affairs appreciate a situation.
23 The anatomy of initiating a war has been historically seen embedded in evil ambitions of human nature.
Post-World Wars psyche was crucial to new international security paradigm. It resulted in creating international regimes for collective security. From the creation of League of Nations to the formulation of the concept of R2P it has mostly been West or Eurocentric thus reflective of European and US interests. This has resulted in securitization of so many social and economic areas even, which have never been directly related to the conventional security paradigm. The economic and political development gaps created vulnerability to newly emerging nation states with their inherent weakness of dependability thus becoming more prone to Security Dilemma. Pakistan is situated at an important strategic crossroads. It is exposed to threats emitting from any international confrontation. The legacy of international politics and great games involving North Western India; that is now Pakistan with Muslim identity tag is compounding the Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
2.2.2: Theory of Realism
Theory of Realism has become central to international politics in the post-World Wars‘ international politics. The Realists resort to actions expressed in interest and realized through power. According to Jack Donnelly explains, ―Political realism is a tradition of analysis that stresses the imperatives states face to pursue a power politics of the national interest. (Donnely, 2005).
E.H.Carr, in the book, ‗Twenty Years Crisis‘ (1939) wrote, ―There are two facets of political science‘, and therefore, ‗any sound political thought must be based on elements of both utopia and reality‖ viewed intimately, one observes, that the major part of the modern states consisting European Union is making use of the indirect realist approach influencing the world with its lead ally U.S‘s power based policies and are promoting their own liberal ideology in their own exclusive political sphere. (Carr, 1964). He argued that:
―… The tragic events of the 1930s bore witness to the fragility of international institutions, the realities of the underlying struggle for power among states and the fallacy of a world public opinion supporting pacifism. Carr also rejected the normative underpinnings of
24 idealism (a concern with questions of law, morality and justice) arguing instead for a ‗science of international politics‘…‖ (Jill Steans, 2001, p. 65).
(Hans.J. Morgenthau, 1948), Published his work ‗Politics among Nations‘, a major work on the realist theory which has most impacted the contemporary international politics. British academic traditions stick to idealism which after evolution became liberalism; make them a natural rival of theory of Realism as they discard State and power and consider war as irrational act. However, the West collectively converge on common strategies and complement each other in a, politically secular and religiously Christian sphere. They share political chauvinism against communist political economic ideology and resource rich Muslim world through the ethos of faith. Faith prejudices are not in pure form like crusade as Western societies have deviated mostly to secular, liberal and realist ideologies however, undercurrent of civilizations‘ and religious prejudices remain permeating in their international relation conduct. The West‘s political theories and modern political concepts circumvent religiously barred state practices like coercive policies.
Hans. J. Morgenthau contends that, ―Political realism is based upon a pluralistic conception of human nature. Real man is a composite of ‗economic man‘, ‗political man‘, ‗moral man‘, ‗religious man‘ etc. A man who was nothing but ‘political man‘ would be a beast, for he would be completely lacking in moral restraints. A man who was nothing but ‘moral man‘ would be a fool, for he would be completely lacking in prudence. A man who was nothing but ‘religious man‘ would be a saint, for he would be completely lacking in worldly desires‖ (Hans.J. Morgenthau, 1948).
A major division of security is based on morality and power based theories. The first charges itself with faith, values and normative inspirations and places interest second to divine like religion, faith and ideological and normative values. Theory of Realism defines the interest in terms of power. It is amoral in character if inevitable but not necessarily as an evil practice. Both, however, strive to make their responses to the perceived security threats as legitimate, in pursuits of their set goals and objectives grounded in respective theories, concepts and ideologies. The process to articulate a justification of response leads to the extended range of security and securitization. A third view empirically correlates security with the features of
25 power and trade. (Mansfield, 1994), argues that, ―The relationship between security and economics is empirical issue‖. It focuses on the relations between power, trade and war, within the ambit of security. It further argues that, ―One reason why many major issues remain unresolved is that empirical studies of war and trade generally fail to include the effects of both economic and political factors‖.
Moral model is a process of securitization of beliefs, ethos, dogmas, perceived values and abstract traditions of a nation that is inspired by religion and orthodoxy. In moral base model, a divine or moral obligation motivates for a certain security response. In moral model, force is used as a last resort under the underlying ethos of a moral obligation. In the case of power and realist model it is just the apprehension projected into fear and addressed by use of power and other coercive instruments to realize a perceived national interest. The fear emits from ideological and theoretical precepts shaped up by historical, societal prejudices and greed and grab of the economic resources of other nations. These goals are realized through political modus operandi based on modern political theories by looking at contemporary issues through the ethos of historical ambiguities. Crusades and civilizational prejudices which matter in quiet a different context and construe the aims of modern international political objectives.
Moral school of thought believes that security is about safeguarding values and traditions nurtured with religious absolutes. Commonly, a security response is provoked when security of a state is physically threatened. Editor-in-Chief of the largest Christians magazine ‗The Philadelphia Trumpet‘ says, ―Most people think the crusades are a thing of the past— over forever. But they are wrong. Preparations are being made for a final crusade, and it will be the bloodiest of all!‖ (Flurry, 2016)
The major part of those who keenly follow faith, idealism and moral base models are among traditional, conservative and normative societies. In contemporary era it is this arena where these major international theoretical perspectives confront and clash. Rest of the Asian and African nations have kept to the order of varying shades of idealist and moral ideologies. However all these nations are gradually drifting from its original base as urbanized and literate population of these nations has embraced Western liberal values, secular culture and
26 capitalist economy models whereas the majority population in rural areas have kept to their traditional and conservative base intact.
The idealists and proponents of traditional and normative values contest the modern political theories due to its disregard for the values identified with idealistic approach and morals. Sharif al Mujahid a rightist scholar explains Islamic precepts in which:
―Values such as right conduct, righteousness, probity, charity, tolerance, justice, equity, compassions and benevolence are underscored. Justice and morality should govern the relations not only between individuals, but also between various groups within a nation, as well as between nations Thus interstate relations should be based on the justice and morality, rather than that of real politick, which has governed such relations since Westphalia [treaty] (1648), leading to bloody convulsions, chaos, and world wars‖ (Mujahid S. a., 2001, p.134)
These precepts show the approach to human nature. The idealist approach is not based on the consequence of human action owing to his natural state. This rather warns of the consequences of an evil doing and promises reward for a good act by religious and ontological induction. This shows a clear line drawn between the adherents of ‗Real Politics‘ and those who have grounded their precepts in idealistic religious precepts. This difference of political and social approach makes the bane of all the world conflicts. The states in the power political world try to impose their will through power and the firm believer in morals and idealism confront them with resolve in the hope of divine promise.
The issue of terrorism and chaos in Pakistani can be assumed as a confrontation between Realism and orthodoxy, one grounded in interest and the other with a faith-absolute standpoint. Realism is a political theory representing political community institutionalized as a state whereas religion has no particular institution and is characterized by infinite boundaries of social and religious traditions.
The philosophical interpretation of political realism is explained as:
―Realism, also known as political realism, is a view of international politics that stresses its competitive and conflictual side. It is usually contrasted with idealism or liberalism, which tends to emphasize cooperation. Realists consider the principal actors in the international arena to be states, which are concerned with their own
27 security, act in pursuit of their own national interests, and struggle for power. The negative side of the realists' emphasis on power and self-interest is often their skepticism regarding the relevance of ethical norms to relations among states. National politics is the realm of authority and law, whereas international politics, they sometimes claim, is a sphere without justice, characterized by active or potential conflict among states (StandforEcyclopedia, 2013)‖
Marxist approach to security is diametrical. It swaps it with global international political economy and advocates that a political economy based on the judicious distribution of wealth and resources can only grant peace and render security expenditure redundant. Marxism and social constructivism theories adopt a common approach to place security exclusive in the Realism realm. As explained by, ―Wars are fought to preserve or maintain exploitative economic systems‖ (Hough, 2004, p. 5). Marxism describes it a class struggle to attain higher social level. These theories contend that economic and not the military or issue specific power determines the fate of the people. Marxism contends that military strategies serve the economic interest than the national interest. It takes International Relation synonym with the International Political Economy. It renders security studies superfluous and sweeps it with the Marxist theory punch line that the global security is dependent on the structural changes. Marxism concludes that individuals and people‘s fate are determined in the global system and not within the states and only the world socialist revolution can improve their prospects. (Marx, 1848)
The discontent with the earlier three paradigms brought to the fore yet another concept in 1990 known as social constructivism. According to constructivists; Realism, Marxism and Pluralism undermine the normative values and build ―value free scientific models to explain the actions of national characters‖ (Hough, 2004). It brought to fore the important questions: Who is being secured? Who is doing the securing? What is it to be secure? This provokes to agitate as to only the perceived interest of a few can only result in securitization of the issues or values? And why should international actors underplay values of less privileged groups and communities? The elements of constructive theory bring out a factor that provokes ideological tensions and perceptions ranging between resistance and terrorism. ‗Malmastaiya’, hospitality becomes abetting and harboring, Jihad or resistance becomes terrorism, traditional values are portrayed as dogmas and propensity to faith becomes fundamentalism. All these factors
28 become subject of realist orchestrations, targeting communities and groups pitched against the powerful political order. Constructivists conclude that normative values form part of the ideological thinking than wider theoretical frameworks those wouldn‘t pay much to achieve global peace objectives. Constructivism is the process of adapting to the surrounding and how a mind develops according to where a person lives. International relations‘ theories depend on the variants of development in different countries in a certain manner. Religion plays a role in social constructivism. Popular perceptions and religious constructivism impacts on state behavior and policies.
Pluralism is an antidote to the Realism theory. It is critical of the realist amorality and deems it inappropriate to guide foreign policy. It considers plurality of actors than just the state as a single actor exerting influence on the world political order. Pluralists believe that prosperity of individual people depends on mutual benefits. It contradicts national interest; the core concept of realism theory with contempt underlining its amoral nature. Pluralists contend that Inter-Governmental Organizations (IGOs) play a meaningful role to integrate national policies with a common interest in denying the centrality of just the national interest only. The ground realities suggest that even the IGOs‘ function has been manipulated in the favor of realist US policies.
Diana L. Eck, (2006), professor of comparative religion and Indian studies at Howard University defines pluralism with four points that highlights the advanced application of this concept. She writes that pluralism is not, ―…diversity alone, but the energetic engagement with diversity…is not just tolerance but the active seeking of understanding across lines of difference…pluralism is not relativism, but the encounter of commitments…pluralism is based on dialogue…with one‘s commitments.‖ Diana distinguishes diversity from the pluralism and seeks a common ground world religion with some give and take and where everyone on the table of negotiation must uproot from the grounded beliefs and should agree to a single agreed order. (Eck, 2016) .
The UN is widely believed to be an expedient tool in the hands of a few powerful states that use UN to realize their national interests. The UN is a pluralist IGO that has yielded ostensibly less of common interest that has helped safeguarding national interests of the
29 powerful and influential states mostly. Kashmir, Palestine, Kashmir and Cyprus issues are still lingering whereas after the breakup of USSR independence of pro-West Baltic States and withdrawal of Russian troops from Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania got prompt priority. Settlement in Balkans and Bosnia-Herzegovina by establishing peace and then preserving the same has been done promptly with focused diplomatic and political support of European Union (EU) and USA under UN umbrella as suited to their regional and national interests though quite late and only when they anticipated Al-Qaeda involvement which would have gone beyond their control and would have spilled over to the whole of Europe. The concept of pluralism has been included in the conceptual and theoretical frame to suggest measure to overcome Pakistan‘s ‗Security Dilemma‘ through pluralistic and interactive approach.
2.2.3: Theory of Liberalism
Liberal theory is based on the idea of scientific rationality, believing in individuals should be free from the arbitrary state power, persecution and superstition (Burchill, 2001). Liberals believe that war becomes unthinkable between liberal states. (Dunne, 2001). Liberalism‘s enlightenment concept revolves around secularism, progress, reason, science, knowledge, and freedom. Liberalist theories lay emphasis on integration or close union between states. Interdependence is another feature of liberalism that helps integration between states as the dependence of one affects the decision making of other in the matters of economy and trade. Liberalism suggests the arrangement of sharing the sense of collective security which is described as Security of one is concern of all, and agrees to join in a collective response to aggression. Liberalism disagrees with Political Realism on the assumption of State as the primary actor. Liberalism puts individual and groups first and their interests and non-state actors highly important within a state. (Internationalrelations, 2016).
According to Robert Keohane Liberalism has brought a paradigm shift in international relations. He says, ―Since the early 1990s we can observe three developments of note: an increase in legalization; increasing legalism and moralism expressed by people leading civil society efforts to create and modify international institutions; and a decline in the coherence of some international regimes with a failure to increase the coherence of others…increasing legalism and moralism might have been expected 20 years ago by those of us who studied liberalism; but in different ways increases in legalization and recent apparent decline in the
30 coherence of international regimes seems anomalous.‖ (Keohane, 2012). These entire Liberal concepts to administer in Liberalism institutions and organizations play central role. The foundational theme of pluralism in which individual have special importance is nucleus of Liberalism. There are three core assumptions as envisioned by Kenneth N. Waltz (Waltz, 1959) Essential social actors and their motivation. The relationship between state and civil society. The circumstances under which states develop strategies and make choices in the international system Liberalism defies allegiance of individual to the states against Realist view of allegiance to state by the individual. Andrew Moravcsid of Harvard University finds out three implications of these assumptions (Moravcsik, 1992).
Most fundamental determinants of politics lie in society itself. Progress can be realized only through institutions that channel private incentives towards social goals of wealth and security. Possibility of evolutionary social progress under republican form of government and private economies would prevail widely. The International Theory of Liberalism is based on the slogan, ‗Democracies don‘t attack one another‘ (Katehon, 2016). Philosophically Liberals follow Locke‘s view about the human nature and the ability of neutrality through education this is just opposite of Realist view of human nature which they count as aggressive and evil as ascribed by Thomas Hobbes.
A summary of IR theory of Liberalism (Katehon, 2016):
National states are not the only and in some cases not the main, actors in International Relations For the control of sovereign national States, a special institution may exist Anarchy can be overcome through democratic procedures. Preference of common values over national interest should be character of State behavior.
31 Not only State but the influence of a vibrant society has got a role in foreign policy and international relations. Democracy guarantees peace and stability. The State and human nature change permanently, improving and developing the growth of freedom, the strength of the democratization process, the increase in tolerance and civil responsibility. Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma lacks most of the factors discussed in the frame of Liberalism. Pakistan has been mostly under civil and military authoritarian rules. Institutional disharmony and weakness block progress which Liberal claim under strong institutions and rule of law. Pakistan needs to progress in democracy that can result in better policy formulation process and pluralistic input of non-state actors in Liberalism sense that can contribute to internal and external peace.
2.2.4: Metanarrative and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is caused by conflict in Muslim and Western political perspectives. After having discussed the modern political theories it is pertinent to discuss the construct of Islamic perspectives. Islam gives an elaborate concept of Jihad or security based on projection of power, primarily for deterrence and not as a free license for waging wars at an individual level and against all non-Muslims. Jihad‘s wrong interpretation has a catalyst effect on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as the concept of Jihad is owned by non-state groups and even at individual level by a single suicide bomber that has created a critical state of Security Dilemma for Pakistan. It is a major concept that helps investigate conceptual base for perspectives of Jihad, political theme of terrorism and its outfall on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The concept of power according to Quran2 is to preserve power and use it only to defend against aggression and under threat of annihilation. The first act to stop aggression is to be strong enough to deter and not attack. This Quran ayah explains it lucidly:
2 Quran The Muslims‘ Holy Book
32
(Prepare against them whatever arms and cavalry you can muster, that you may strike terror in (the hearts of) the enemies of Allah and your own, and others besides them not known to you, but known to God. Whatever you spend in the way of God will be paid back to you in full, and no wrong will be done to you.)
Quran explains it in the very next ayah that if the enemy inclines to terms of peace be contented with their pledge and rely on Allah.
(And if they incline to peace, then incline to it [also] and rely upon Allah. Indeed, it is He who is the Hearing, the Knowing.) (Quran: 8:60-61, al Anfal).
However, Quran enjoins upon Muslims to steadily fight when under aggression and threat of annihilation when physically threatened by the enemy. This view is further augmented by the saying of Muhammad (peace be up on him) which narrates:
―Never aspire for confronting your enemies (in a war). Pray to Allah to be among those who seek living peacefully with others, but if every you confront them (in a war) be patient and know that Heaven is as close to you as shades of the swords.‖ (Narrated by Bukhari, Muslim Dawood)
The concept of Jihad is fundamentally based on physical threat and not under the circumstance of passive disagreements or to kill any non-Muslim. As an individual, one can support and contribute to Jihad but it overall controls rest with the Islamic Emirate or state. According to American Supreme Council of America, ―…the position of the law is that only at such a time when it can be reasonably proven that; there are aggressive designs against Islam; and there are concerted efforts to eject Muslims from their legally acquired property;
33 and, that military campaigns are being launched to eradicate them. At such a time the ruler can declare and execute the provisions of combative Jihād.‖ (Kabbani, 2016).
The Islamic concept of Jihad or resistance motivates and glorifies death over life when it comes to fighting enemies of faith who resort to aggression and physically threatening a Muslim society. ‗Muslims… coexisted amicably with non-Muslims world. The Quran does not sanctify warfare. It develops the notion of a just war of self-defense to protect decent values, but condemns killings and aggression (Armstrong, 2002, p. 26)3. It is not just about the difference of faith but is similar in nature of response like just war against a tyranny and under life threatening conditions or use of force by an enemy that endangers a society or country. It is same when we analyze the preludes of wars generally perceived. However; Islamic concept of Jihad or war securitizes religious values and not national interest or to grab strategic energy resources like the NATO countries based the war waging strategies, securitizing from environment to economy.
US used the Islamic concept of Jihad as a political theme in Muslim regions during war against communism that ended in a low intensity conflict with former USSR and her defeat. The US model of formation, making4 has diversified variables. The Muslim-atheist formation, which worked in Afghan Jihad against USSR, the terrorist and NATO and its allies‘ formation against War on Terrorism beginning with the event on 9 September, 2001 that helped justify the War on Terrorism. This Realist approach has been observed catalyst for Iraq, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Yemen, Tunis, Egypt and Algeria. This Western war mongering model will impact Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as its circumstances can be simulated similar to where the Western power intended to awe it with their power and destroyed and disintegrated those countries and has almost physically annihilated those regions.
The wrong notion of Jihad and its wrong interpretation has helped non-state actors to lure Pakistani zealots for recruitment, creating individual fighters and series of suicide bombers creating a Security Dilemma for Pakistan.
3 Quran 2:194, 252, 5:65, 22:40-42 (Explanatory Note ‗19‘ given at the end of the referred book. 4 A strategy of crafting an enemy in US Strategic culture.
34 2.2.5: The Concept of Islamic Co-Existence can overcome Pakistan’s Security Dilemma Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma persists due to lack of grasp about the Islamic concept of co- existence or its misconstruction. The convoluted circumvention of Jihad has created turmoil in the Pakistani society and a factor of its Security Dilemma. The Islamic precepts are hedged against the social and normative ethos pretended to be faith obligations. International relations studies are dominated by European schools of thoughts. The Islamic concept of state and international relations are not given appropriate weightage and focused properly. As said by [Syed] (Khattab, 2007), a renowned Egyptian scholar on political Islam and international relations that, ―Religion has re-entered politics in many ways in most parts of the world‖ (p.1). The major contestants being Islam, Jews and Christianity, so it is appropriate to analyze the early statecraft practices of Islam vis a vis modern thoughts and theories. Islamic scholars claim the efficacy of articles enshrined in the Quran and drawn from the life of the last Prophet Muhammad peace be upon him. Muslims ruled many regions and became a faith of almost a quarter of the global population due to its inherent appeal of universal and simple approach that is not centered in a single communal interest but the whole of humanity. The foundational concept of Islamic statecraft, international relations and principle of coexistence are well documented in Islamic teachings, formulated and conducted by Prophet Muhammad S.A.W himself, under the guiding principles of the Quran. These concepts are not made in oblivion to the prevailing environment. It includes articles on plurality, diversity, social justice, rights of the minorities, freedom of religion and paganism even the rights of ownership, peaceful coexistence, collective security, and respect for life. If these Islamic concepts are grasped in its real essence contributed through intelligentsia and media, Pakistan can overcome it‘s Security Dilemma.
The establishment of state of Medina was first Muslim Model that guides us that not the difference of faith but a threat of annihilation of a community is only cause to wage Jihad. A comparative study of Mithaq-e-Madina5 or Covenant of Medina, a document of just 730 words shows that it includes almost all the imaginable security and human rights provisions effectively executed. With the implementation of the covenant of Medina there was all peace
5 The Treaty between Muslims, non-Muslim Arabs and Jews of Medina was put in writing and ratified by all parties in the year 622 AD know as ‗Misaq e Medina. For further reading, (https://www.researchgate.net/)
35 and not a single instance of its violation was reported. Charter of Medina was drafted by Prophet Muhammad, peace be up on him himself. It was an agreement between Muslims, Jews, Christians and pagans who were brought into the fold of one Ummah or community. This brought an end to the bitter intertribal fighting between Ows and Khizrij the rival blood thirsty Arab tribes. This paradigm that established the first Islamic state of Medina successfully gives foundation for the peaceful coexistence. According to the first Islamic covenant, Islam is not a recipe for suicide bombers and terrorism but guides to peaceful coexistence with people from all faiths and creeds that even includes pagans. The salient of these concepts of coexistence and plurality are embedded in the 48 articles of Mithaq-e- Medina or the covenant of Medina:
―The Constitution introduced a number of political rights and facilities to be provided by the state to all its members, Muslims and non-Muslims alike, in return for the duties . . . the Constitution promulgated: (i) standing laws defining the rights and duties of all members, (ii) arrangements for impartial decisions on matters of right and (iii) unfailing protection of the members of the community in the enjoyment of their rights…. (i) the freedom of belief, that is, every community has the right to live according to its belief; (ii) the freedom of movement from and to Medina: ‗whoever will go out is safe and whoever will stay in Medina is safe‘; (iii) the assurance that if there is an external threat to non-Muslims, the Muslims would help them and vice versa; (iv) the assurance that both Muslims and non-Muslims are believers and would stand together to defend Medina against any attack; (v) the agreement that no one should go to war before consulting with the Prophet (article 36); (vi) the assurance that when consultation occurs the representatives of all parties should be present; (vii) the assurance that in cases of negotiation with foreign states, representatives of all parties should be present, and that negotiations should not be concluded unilaterally; (viii) the understanding that when a person acquires guilt they acquire it only against themselves; (ix) that a person is not liable for their ally‘s misdeeds; (x) that charity and goodness are clearly distinguishable from crime and injury; and (xi) that God is the guarantor of the truth and goodwill of this covenant…These are the very characteristics of the political society defined by John Locke: ‗a society which fails to provide these facilities is not really a political society at all, but a continuation of the state of nature‖ (Sayed Khatab, 2007, p. 32).
The provision enshrined in the covenant of Median is the best recipe for a multi-religious and diversified society that is somewhat similar to Pakistan‘s social conditions. This model is based on pluralistic ideology focusing at social justice and protection to all members of society under a confederation to avert Security Dilemma. These universal principles can be
36 seen reflected in piecemeal in all the political philosophies of modern times written much later than the constitution of Median that is widely believed to be the first constitution mankind ever produced. The theory of statehood in Islam is enshrined in the teachings of Quran and drawn from the life of Prophet Muhammad S.A.W. Another peculiarity is that it was formulated according to the need of the time and was promulgated and implemented in letter and spirit for the human welfare a core characteristic that breaks the restraints of national interest and sovereignty. This encompasses universal human values differentiating from realist theory that relies on the notions of interest through power. Jews and Christians with pagans even were assured and pledged safety, protection and status of equality as allies. Pagans were even assured to be protected by Muslims in case of unjust aggression and a reciprocated assurance/pledge was sought from the all parties involved including pagans. The Constitution of Medina lays universal principles that prevents making of Security Dilemma by ensuring interest of the all the stakeholders based on equality and social justice irrespective of their biological, cultural and material status. The man-made ideology strictly denies space to well appreciated concept of Islamic social and economic code. It believes in the development of mankind through natural aspirations and not through corporate and capitalist or communist paradigms in which either people are forced to produce and profit or pretend to make them equal depriving them of their property and possessions in the name of equal distribution that is unnatural and impracticable.
2.3.6: Religious to Secular Political Thought and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma Christian world characterizes with West and the US. West made a transition from religious grounding to modern political ideas of just war with an aim to penetrate Muslim dissenting cadres and even to engineer a class whose tone and tenor supported Western political thought. Strategies are being evolved where Muslim thought is injected with the secular interpretations like Cheryl Benard, an influential scholar on US policies suggests in one of her study, ―Assistance in efforts to develop education and cultural activities by secular or moderate Muslim organizations should be a priority.6‖Cheryl Benard‘s recommendations to tame and manipulate the Muslim world are very intrusive and conspirational in character as
6 The source retrieval on the page from this reference is downloaded: Rabasa, Angel, Cheryl Benard, Peter Chalk, C. Christine Fair, Theodore W. Karasik, Rollie Lal, Ian O. Lesser and David E. Thaler. US Strategy in the Muslim World After 9/11. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2004. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB151.html..
37 she suggests the divides between Muslim sects as an opportunity. ―The United States may have an opportunity to align its policy with Shi‘ite groups, who aspire to have more participation in government and greater freedoms of political and religious expression. If this alignment can be brought about, it could erect a barrier against radical Islam7‖ (Benard, 2004).
During the crusades it was not possible for a Christian; though with secular leaning to speak against his own fellow Christians who might have misinterpreted the Bible that says, ―If someone strikes you on one cheek, turn to him the other also. And if someone takes your cloak, do not withhold your tunic as well‖ (Luke 6:30). In a secular political environment it is possible for Muslim dissenters in the garb of a secular political class to freely speak what could not have been easily expressed, had the West and Islam been contesting on purely religious grounds. Muslim world overwhelmingly characterized orthodoxy and religiosity and its concept of war didn‘t change much from the original concept of Jihad since the advent of Islam. In the restructured political environment the Western ideals were expressed through the medium of the state. At people‘s level in Muslim world they found state lacking to express the will of the people that caused the emergence of non-state actors‘ role among the wider Muslim world.
In the Muslim world, people believe in the concept of Ummah that transcended boundaries of state and entails a universal and International vision that contrasts the local sensibility and form of modern nation State. This religious spirit de corps (Ummah) motivates an international Muslim brotherhood. These results in homogenous religious pulse where action of one is deemed conflated on the whole of Muslim strata all over the world. In actuality this is what also causes threats as the Muslim majority countries‘ reaction to any atrocity or offensive action is reacted throughout the Muslim world. Since the consequence of Muslim political reaction at the people level is not filtered through the mostly secular Muslim modern states this is taken on by the non-state actors.
The role of non-state actors undermined the higher institution of sovereign states. It can be analyzed that it erodes the state‘s authority and their control leads to confrontation and result
7 which she refers to Sunni presumably
38 in creating Security Dilemma of most of the Muslim states with Pakistan at the top. The Muslim states‘ secular inclination also resulted in the making of Islamic factions. These groups emerged as a reaction to contest the modern political forces to block modern political and social changes. The modern political dynamism failed to overcome religious influence on the Muslim societies with their modern ideology and could not bring any change in state and religion‘s relations and Islamic beliefs of the people of Muslim countries but to create a minority of secular liberal class that further complicated the already worsening situations, The clash between these conflicting phenomena resulted in a Security Dilemma.
In the case of Christianity as observed by Johnson (1997) in his book, ‗The holy war idea in the Western and Islamic traditions’ has noted that, ―Perhaps the fundamental point is that the idea of holy war never enjoyed a secure place in the Western world doctrine on war and statecraft for a variety of reasons, of which three are most important. First, the idea of a holy war in Western culture had not one, but several often conflicting substantive forms rationales for such warfare, particularly conceptions of justifying authorization and conduct have accordingly been discontinued and sometime conflicting. Second, the relation of religion to the state has been ambivalent from the beginning, so that ideal of holy war is not at the core of Christian self-understanding, but is rather an idea associated with particular historical period and form of religion and political relationship. And, third, the major normative traditional war and statecraft in the West is not that of holy war, but that of the just war, a broad culture consensus shared by temporal as well as religious influences.‖ (Johnson, 1997).
The argument of just war has broadened the arena of war conception in the West. A Realism perspective extends all forms of justifications for a war beyond the religious or moral paradigms. This conception of realization of national interest objectives through power frustrates the religious sentiments and has broadened the range of securitization that includes trade to environment and human rights. Territorial integrity and security of state enterprise and trade routes used to be a few among security concerns before the advent of broadened securitization perspectives. The extended range of securitization gives equally extended range of coercive tools to the West for arms twisting of nations and regime changes where its interest is deemed at stake.
39 Pakistan is situated at the crossroads of strategic geographic hub, thus bears the brunt of confrontations and conflicts among all the militarily powerful nations. It remains dependent on the West due to the inherent weak industrial structure that leaves the only option of going by the West leaning international political tide than carve out its own ingenious international relation response. The Western military overtures in pursuit of their interest and lack of befitting response at the state level have pushed religious cadres as non-state actors to fill the gap. This makes the security paradigm more complex as non-state actors fight simultaneously internally and globally. They believe external powers in direct confrontation and their own state as supporters of secular world who perpetrate conspiracies against their faith. This is what has become a double security trap factoring the most in contemporary security threats faced by Pakistan and Muslim world in general. Pakistan is precariously finding ways to extricate from this state of Security Dilemma.
The man who led this 21st century Jihad against the Western and Judeo-Christian military and political preponderance was Sheikh Osama Bin Awad Bin Muhammad Bin Laden famously called Osama Bin Laden (OBL). Osama Bin Laden was not a typical terrorist caste. A former CIA officer who served for a long time writes, ―The threat America faces from Bin Laden is not the episodic terrorist campaign typical of those perpetrated by traditional terrorists groups. It is rather a worldwide, religiously inspired and professionally guided Islamist insurgency against ―Christian crusaders and Jews,‖ which is being waged by groups Bin Laden has controlled, directed, and inspired‖. Michael quotes the words of a prominent Islamist lawyer Muntasir al Zayyat making his view point more elaborate, ―They [the Americans] deal with Usama Bin Ladin, [Gam‘at al-Islamiyah spiritual leader] Shykh Umar Abd-al-Rahman, and [Egyptian Islamic Jihad chief] Ayman al Zawahiri, as if they were carbon copies of [the] international terrorist Carlos, and that reflects their inability to understand the facts of the matter. Carlos was a terrorist whose activities stopped when he was arrested. The fundamentalist movement‘s leaders are ideas, a heritage, a stature, and principles that do not disappear when they disappear‖ explaining what the American missed Michael writes, ―While we all have seen and viscerally felt the damage Bin Laden has unleashed on the United Sates, most do not have a coherent understanding of what motivates the threat his movement poses. Or, if some have heard what he has said-such phrases as, ―If we cut off the head of America, the kingdom in the Arab world will cease to exist‖. They
40 have dismissed it as hyperbolic rhetoric meant to win notoriety and thereby have missed the substantial kernel of truth at the statement‘s core‖ (Schueuer, 2006, p. xxiii). Another author Philip Towle from Cambridge department of politics writes, ―Recognizing that terrorists are not insane is the first step in understanding them.‖ (Towle, 2006, p. 130).
The emergence of OBL cast a direct bearing on Pakistan‘s present Security Dilemma. Osama bin Laden funded and fought with a religious perspective and motivation that converged tactically with national interest of USA to fight a common enemy. Taliban replaced Mujahedeen as an umbrella for Jihad continuum. As the later events were anti-US as Taliban deemed US as Afghanistan‘s occupant and now their enemy. Pakistan faced a dilemma as the depth it sought in Afghanistan was not possible without stabilizing it and after the US anti- Taliban stance things went rough and difficult and was rather shaping up in a perpetual turmoil. India remained the major problem with a dispute over Jammu and Kashmir still pending. The question arose whether India remained the only major threat or Pakistan has earned many more security threats due to its policy faults.
Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma can better be analyzed beyond its dispute with India on the issue of state of Jammu and Kashmir. Dispute with India is a major factor that has indirectly yielded even bigger security threats rather than solving single one. Pakistan is part of the Muslim world and at the international level a model has been established where Muslim states have contributed naively to the Western and US causes and lost their own interest and objectives. The Muslim world has been played up by the West and US, according to the respective regional issues manipulating through regional divides. The Western nations‘ nexus with US on top supported and played up these warring factions to create leverage with the calibrated political risk that has mostly culminated in favor of Western and US interest so far.
2.2.7: Conclusion
Pakistan‘s meek security and political situation can be exploited through Realpolitik. Pakistan if not conducive to the interest of US and other NATO nations can face numerous threats emitting from political philosophy of powerful countries. Pakistan is not fully sovereign in the wake of emerging political theories that explain sovereignty not a right but responsibility. The new emerging theory, R2P passed as UN resolution, answers the
41 questions raised by constructivists that, ―Who is being secured? Who is doing the securing? What is it to be secured? This shifts the responsibility of securing people in a sovereign state to international community when any such government if found by them failing to do so. This creates a threat of creation of a chaotic situation to bring a target state on anvil by the international real politic players as has been perceived in case of Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya are deemed to be projected in case of Iranian nuclear plans and potential theme projection about Pakistan‘s nuclear weapons that it might slip into the hands of Taliban thus qualifies to be rescued and controlled by the international regimes favorable to the interest of NATO nations. This concept of collective security and global security has a gap. In the case of NATO, collective security has implied in the sense of regional security. NATO‘s aims and objectives are not global but primarily to provide security mechanism to protect European regions as explained by NATO on its website, ―Article 5 is at the basis of a fundamental principle of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. It provides that if a NATO Ally is victim of an armed attack, each and every other member of the Alliance will consider this act of violence as an armed attack against all members and will take the actions it deems necessary to assist the Ally attacked.‖ (North Atlantic Treaty Organization, 2005). These factors pose a Security Dilemma to Pakistan. Pakistan is under disproportionate foreign influence in the matters of its policy making. Pakistan‘s policy lacks the hierarchal scrutiny and input in its policy making. There are signs of growing foreign ingress in Pakistan‘s policy matters aimed at influencing society, official working, media, and independent fraternization and recruiting Pakistani citizens, aimed at working for their own national interest with lesser regards for the national interest of Pakistan. Pakistan has been portrayed as a state ‗descending into chaos‘ and akin to the proportions of a failed state, an observation that is hard to be separated from fact and projection, purposeful to power politics that can paint such a situation causes belli and casus foederis to push turmoil ridden Pakistan in Security Dilemma. The lack of hierarchical, intellectual, scholarly and statesmanship input, political articulations, dynamism in Pakistan foreign policy as compared to the European and North Americans peculiar strategic cultures; make it all the more difficult to solve the security dilemma.
42 CHAPTER: 3
INTERNAL FACTORS CONTRIBUTING TO PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA
3.1: Introduction
In this Chapter internal factors contributing to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemmas have been discussed. Internal factors of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma are characterized by religious, ethnic, sectarian divides compounded by impediments of feudalism, kinship and chauvinistic society. ‗Ethnicity and different variables such as religion, language, territory and caste, which have potential to give birth violent conflicts among different ethnic identities of Pakistan.‘ (Majeed, 2001). It has been explained in previous chapter that the creation of Pakistan was a corollary to the independence of Indian Subcontinent. It was in the later part when the independence of Pakistan as a sovereign state was configured. The demand for a separate Muslim state indicated the underlying factor of religious divide processed through historical chronicles.
A history of Muslim rules in the Indian Subcontinent that started with the 7th century Muslim conquests and what Muslims of Subcontinent thought them as inheritors to carry it on. In subsequent Muslim rules Islam spread and became a distinct identity clearly dividing the Subcontinent in two major religious Hindus and Muslims. A Muslim order of assigning administration to locals and the Arab Muslims conquerors staying in the cantonments in urban areas was maintained that ensured equality and peace and avoided any major irritant caused by such conquests. (Columbia, 2017). Later Muslim rule helped spread of Islam and maintained peace and tranquility (Ibid). When the British came to sub-continent they changed the language which was deemed a major factor of Muslim civilization influence on the Subcontinent. This change of medium to alienate a society from their own local and normative identities; swapping it with what the new British rulers planned for them to adopt. The effect of such an influence is directly proportionate to education system in the country, region or world where it is designed to submit to an international order established by the influential and mighty powers. Nations with lesser literacy rate came to know at a very later
43 stage as to how it has been socially engineered to change their values to disorientate them and discourage resistance.
People of Subcontinent and colonies in general were divided in two classes. One was the conservative, traditional, and religious and the other was westernized with secular lifestyle and nominal religious affiliations. Such a class preferred to project themselves as more English than native. They considered being native; became a reference to their backwardness rather, not really but due to contrast of science and technological advancement that undermined the conservative lifestyle. ‗Although people were getting western education for the sake of job but Missionaries were trying to impose western culture and traditions through their religious education. And in result, there was a community, which was Indian by blood but western by thinking‘ (Panday, 2005, p. 35). Western civilizations facilitated society with mechanical inventions and destroying them at the same time by acquiring Air Power and Revolution in Arms. The conservative leadership of Pakistan movement was replaced with suit wearing foreign educated people. That made a difference. A society resists foreign cultural assault to preserve itself, when purely conscious of its own values and system and when it is engineered through alien education system and designed to produce proponents of a certain ideology and order, it becomes prone to easy subjugation. Quoting Lord Macaulay to this effect (Aziz, 1965) writes, ―We will have an effort to generate a group, who will be natively an Indian, but its thinking and living style will be British‖ (Aziz, 1965, p. 52). This religious and cultural disorientation is the major mechanism and reason that has confused Pakistan‘s national perspective that makes its Security Dilemma.
3.2: Disintegration of the Muslim Empire and Colonial Impact on Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
The historical flashback in this study is not mere history but a link to show the major construct of Pakistani society and roots that became crucial to its Security Dilemma. Movement for freedom of the Indian Subcontinent was launched by Muslims and Hindus together. In first phase of struggle against the British Raj in 1857, Hindus and Muslims sought leadership of last Mughal King, Bahadur Shah Zafar who was still reigning with all authority surrendered to East India Company. (Dalrymple, 2007). It reflects satisfaction and
44 faithfulness to Muslim rule that maintained peace and tranquility in a society with diverse castes, creeds, religions and faiths. By the time the Mughal dynasty came to its fall the Indian society had been assimilated into a ‘syncretic‘ model that embodied Hindu-Muslim cultural composite at every level. The Hindu elite of Delhi used to visit Sufi shrine of Nizamudin, could quote Hafiz, a famous Persian Muslim poet and were fond of Persian poetry. Their children, especially those of the administrative Khattri and Kayasth caste studied under Moulvis and attended the more liberal madrasas or seminaries, bringing offerings of food for their teachers during Hindu festivals. For their part Muslim followed the emperor in honoring Hindu holy men, while many in the court, including last Mughal King Bahadur Shah Zafar himself, followed old Mughal customs borrowed from upper caste Hindus, of drinking only Ganges‘ water‖ (ibid). However, this was possible due to rulers‘ own circumstances and stability of the Mughal Empire. The goodwill between Hindu, Muslim sociability led to the amalgamation of cultural and social integration. This was also due to the fact that King Bahadur Shah Zafar was degenerated vestige of Mughal dynasty that had a Hindu mother and there was too much ingress of Hindu elite in the Mughal Darbar and intermingling in lineage. The Mughal forgot their original language martial culture and assimilated with conquered rather than to enforce conqueror‘s cultural and influence. However, all was not surrendered as the Muslim identity was still part of the major social divide and its essence of Muslim faith remained nonnegotiable.
With the ‗British Raj‘ that worked like a leviathan and hedged differences and enforced order, stirred the major political forces in the Indian Subcontinent to become identity conscious. However, primary factor to provoke seeking freedom was Hindu prejudice who were about to regain their lost empire in a big leap from their primitive history to the modern era settings. What emerged out of changing political environment was a lost Muslim Empire whose major communities living within Hindu society became a clear minority unsure of their destiny. The feeling with the passage of time resulted in an increased sense of insecurity and losing identity in an environment where not King or Sultan but majority prevailed. Owing to these political factors struggle for freedom by the Muslims of Indian Subcontinent became inevitable who struggled vehemently for demanding a separate state on basis of self- determination. The nation they defined was not based on race, ethnicity or language; it was a unified entity bonded with faith identity. A secular overtone was sounded for minorities
45 living among the Muslim majority in Pakistan, as an assurance of coexistence within faith framework and not literally where religion could be undermined overwriting Muslim identity.
3.3: Kashmir Issue: Internal Aspects and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
People of Jammu and Kashmir are predominantly a Muslim majority. Kashmir is a mini civilization situated in beautiful valley of Himalaya. All the rivers flowing in Pakistan originates in Kashmir which is vital for its economy. People of Kashmir share common cultural and Muslim heritage with Pakistan. Kashmir is mother of all the security problems Pakistan has faced so far. All the strings of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma are tied to the issue of Jammu and Kashmir. The question is why people of Kashmir have been denied the option to accede to Pakistan through plebiscite? It is basically due to lack of supportive international political environment as most of the world does not want to exert and put their full weight against India for the resolution of Kashmir issue. The dispute works as leverage for the Western interests in many strategic ways as supporting India or Pakistan works as a leverage that the Western countries can use for their interest (Panigrahi, 2009).
There is a new view being promoted from the emboldened liberal media that Pakistan should not involve deeply in Kashmir affair leaving them to decide what they want, promoting a fully independent Kashmir. Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF) leader Amanullah Khan held this view, ―Though Pakistan and India are parties to the Kashmir issue, they just could not enforce decision of their choice on people of Kashmir‖ (Dawn, Archive, 2004).
However reality on ground on Kashmir issue remains different as majority of the people display their leaning to join Pakistan in so many ways. Member of the executive council of the Hurriyat Conference and chairman Jammu Kashmir People‘s league Sheikh Abdul Aziz, a pro Pakistani political party in Kashmir, gave statement that,
―…under the UN resolutions on Kashmir there were only two options either that the people of a Kashmir decide to join India or Pakistan. ―I don‘t think, there is any third option on Kashmir…the Kashmiri leader suggested that in foreign countries, Pakistani embassies and high commissions should supervise special Kashmir cells, which should work to bring the Kashmir issue to the attention of the world community.‖ (UAE, 2001).
46 Kashmir however remains a bone of contention and a major cause of Security Dilemma of Pakistan as all the security strings are tied to this chronic and fundamental issue between India and Pakistan with no immediate solution in sight.
Figure 1: Kashmiri Kids
Source: BBC
Pundit Jawahar Lal Nehru, the first Prime Minister of India after independence expressed his view about Kashmir in one of his dispatches which said, ―…In his statement in the Lok Sabha on 31st March, 1955 as published in Hindustan Times New Delhi on Ist April, 1955, Pandit Nehru said, ―Kashmir is perhaps the most difficult of all these problems between India and Pakistan. We should also remember that Kashmir is not a thing to be bandied between India and Pakistan but it has a soul of its own and an individuality of its own. Nothing can be done without the goodwill and consent of the people of Kashmir.‖ (Roy, 2010).
The UN Security Council adopted 47 (1948) Resolution of 21 April, 1948 which says, ―…Noting with satisfaction that both India and Pakistan desire that the question of the accession of Jammu and Kashmir to India or Pakistan should be decided through the democratic method of a free and impartial plebiscite, considering that the continuation of the dispute is likely to endanger international peace and security‖ (UN, UNMOGIP, 2017).
47 Kashmir has a special affiliation with the people of Pakistan owing to common faith bondage. Kashmir has an inherent security factor that has been manifested by involvement of non-state actors since the division of Subcontinent. The prevailing international political environment is not supportive of the resistance movements that margins on connotations of resistance and terrorism owing to international perceptions and apprehensions about its links to what they do not approve due to their security policy and strategy. Pakistan‘s Pashtun tribes took it a religious obligation to help Kashmiri Muslims actively by fighting the Dogra Raja forces to rid them of his tyrannical rule. Pakistan was ill-equipped and lacked military force to help Kashmiris or prevent Pashtun tribes to help their Kashmiri brethren in religious vein. British civil service veteran, Sir William Barton who had served 35 years in Indian civil service wrote in prestigious Journal; Foreign Affair8 in 1950 that:
―Much has been made of the culpability of the Pakistan Government in not preventing the tribal people from entering Kashmir in the winter of 1947-48. If an attempt had been made to drive them back, the whole border from Chitral south to Quetta would have burst into flame, and at that time Pakistani forces were still disorganized and largely unequipped, thanks to India‘s refusal to hand over Pakistan‘s share of the military supplies left by the British. They could not have held down a tribal rising and might have been driven across the Indus, which they look on as Afghanistan irredentism. In such an event Pakistan would either have been absorbed in India, or have become a satellite of that country.‖ (Barton, 1950, p.300).
This credible view of this veteran bureaucrat reflects the chronic Security Dilemmas of Pakistan linked to the issue of Jammu and Kashmir right at the onset of its creation.
The later events overlapped with the inspirations of Afghan Jihad (1979-1989) which are under direct focus of the West. Kashmiris fought in Afghanistan under the umbrella of Mujahedeen and it was natural to reciprocate at the end of Afghan Jihad. A prominent Kashmiri Taliban leader Ilyas Kashmiri was, ―…one of the most high-profile militant commanders and strategists in Pakistan and Afghanistan…‖ (BBC, South Asia , 2011). Ilyas Kashmiri was killed in a drone attack according to the same report. The persistence of Kashmir issue has the potential of more violence and instability that that can directly impact Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
8Foreign Affairs, Volume 28, Number 2. January 1950
48 3.4: Internal Discontent/Dissent and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
After the creation of Pakistan a new cycle of it internal communal discontent started which culminated in the separation of its eastern wing, the East Pakistan which is renamed as an independent state of Bangladesh. The separation of Bangladesh became a major part of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma since its independence. Further trend of political separation movements like Baluchistan separatists movement and beside this the undercurrents of nationalistic rhetoric which can prove catalyst for the Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma This view might entail a bit of exaggeration but it certainly shows an element of discontent permeating Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Muslims, living in central, southern and eastern regions of India, especially the Muslim majority of West Bengal felt politically insecure in the Hindu majority Indian Subcontinent. Muslim majority areas of Bengal and North-West regions of India became parts of Pakistan united with common faith but diverse in all other respects to a degree of totally aliens in culture, ethnicity, language, and customs. As the only force binding together was faith, an overdose of political intrigue and secular influence cracked the national unity due to diabolical pulls dividing Pakistan in passionate nationalistic and religious factions. A literate of Pakistan Army General (Retired) Kamal Mateenudin analyzes this aspect as follow:
―None of the demographic dissimilarities would have altered the loyalty of the Bengalis towards Pakistan if they had not been treated as inferiors or if they has been deprived of their legitimate rights‖ (Matinudeen, 1993 p.53).
This withered Pakistan‘s national coherence and integrity, and its Eastern Wing became the first political splinter, separated due to a mix of political, social disparities, grudges, intrigues and conspiracy by India who abetted and harbored dissident political elements of then East Pakistan. An article in Hindustan Times quotes from the Book of Salil Tripathi‘s book on Bangladesh‘s modern history that gives evidence to this fact while , ―India played a part in these events; it has been considered Delhi‘s most successful neighborhood intervention‖ (Jha, 2016)
The creation of Bangladesh also interjected the aspersions on two-nation theory but people rejected it by saying that it was birth of another Muslim country still separate from Hindus.
49 Map 4: Bangladesh
Source: Google, 2016
The defeat in East Pakistan gave Pakistan a justification for developing a credible strategic deterrence for its future defense and security. Pakistan became a declared nuclear power on 28 May, 1998. This however proved to be another factor of its security liability in the wake of international alarm for nuclear proliferation and the strategic thinking of the West9.
This institutional strength is casted in the comparatively better organization and discipline. The Army interventions in democratic process under ideal conditions are however, politically wrong and needs a strong democratic culture and political discipline to overcome. According to a survey carried out by the Pakistan‘s leading English daily ‗Dawn’ Pakistan Army has been rated most trustworthy institution in Pakistan. (Haider, 2015)
9 Pakistan‘s nuclear status factor has been discussed in section 3.18 with related details.
50 Figure-2: Most Trustworthy Institution
Source: dawn.com
However, the military‘s overarching role in security matters and foreign policy resulted in an institutional imbalance. Most of the leadership or founding members of Pakistan freedom movement were from areas that represented the Muslim majority regions of the Subcontinent. It is surprising that after independence large number of Muslims living in a Hindu dominated parts of India did not join Pakistan. The majority of Muslims of Subcontinent however; supported the creation of Pakistan. On the contrary partial opposition came from Muslims majority and religious factions that includes sub nationalists of Muslim majority North Western parts of India, now part of Pakistan, who argued for an undivided India and in Punjab it was landlords‘ party who opposed idea of creation of Pakistan. Khan of Kalat in Baluchistan being a Muslim majority area opted in a faithful vein quoting a dream in which the Prophet SAW asked him to do join Pakistan. The present generation of Khan of Kalat has a different view however Pakistan. (Youtube, 2009).
Sindh province, under the Sindhi leadership of that time prominent among them Sir Shahnawaz Bhutto, the father of former Prime Minister of Pakistan Mr. Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto; first got an autonomous status on linguistic basis on 1 April, 1936 (Tahir, 2012) and later joined Pakistan on basis of Muslim majority. The oppositions by sub nationalist, rightist
51 Islamic factions and Hindu communal opposition to the division of India did not impact negatively on creation of Pakistan.
Muhammad Ali Jinnah argued vehemently the case of division of India with two-nation theory on the basis of religious identity but with an inherent dichotomy of secular political structure, a conflated approach that has shaped Pakistan throughout and has been the major source of its identity crisis which and has led to its Security Dilemma. The creation of however Pakistan was overwhelmingly demanded at popular level on the slogan of ‗Pakistan Ka Matlab kia La Ilaha Illallah‘ [‗What do we mean by (demanding) Pakistan‘, that we want, (a separate state of the people, who believe in that), ‗there is no god but Allah]. Even Muhammad Ali Jinnah passionately expressed sense of nationalism in 1931 in a speech quoted in his biography ―mein pehlay Hindustani aor phir Musalamn Hoon‖ ( I am first Indian and then a Muslim) and that none can serve better this country by ignoring the interest of Hindustani Muslims. (Mujahid S. a., 1983).
National cohesiveness is an important element of ensuring national security. Communities in the Subcontinent are of diverse and dissimilar character. The impact of internal dynamics on security is a permanent feature of a state. Internal divide is always a welcome scenario for foreign intriguers and occupiers to meet their interest. Pre-partition India provided plenty of discord and divide that is akin to its communal, religious, and ethnic diversity. Mughals maintained the communal and social harmony by dispensing social justice, religious tolerance and economic prosperity and British consolidated their rule through divide and rule. Above all the natives‘ connivance with the rulers, against mutual rivalries also played an important role. The same pattern has been inherited when Pakistan was created and it threatens its integrity same as it did to sub continental divide.
3.5: Social Injustice and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
A theory can be devised from this paradigm to infer factors that create separatist feeling and movements within a nation. Having grasped this model one can make a strategy based on lessons learned from national disintegration. This can help overcome social desperation, secessionist sentiment and can curb such factions becoming a client and pawns of foreign intriguers and game players.
52 Political discontent of former East Pakistan has its seeds before partition on the issue of language. On the suggestion of former Vice Chancellor of Ali Ghar University, Dr. Zia Uddeen to make Urdu as national language of Pakistan; Bengali linguistic scholar‘s comments that, ―Urdu or Hindi instead of Bengali used in our law courts and universities would be tantamount to political slavery‖ (nvdatabase, 2017). This became a long term issue which escalated to widen Nationalistic‘ demands and resulted in separation of East Pakistan. That should have given a lesson that, if sensibilities of smaller provinces; in a federation are not taken seriously this will aggravate Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Afrasyab Khattak, a prominent nationalist‘s view entail an indicator of such discontent he writes in a major Pakistan daily about Pakistan‘s policy fault lines, ―Civil and military factions of the ruling elites are predominantly Punjabi, the aforementioned power struggle has largely obscured the deepening fault lines representing the growing alienation of oppressed nationalities like Baloch, Pashtun, Sindhi and those living in Gilgit-Baltistan from the Pakistani state system. The situation in the largest urban center Karachi also reflects the sense of exclusion felt in the rest of peripheral spheres. Such a development can be comprehended by acknowledging the fact that smaller ethnic groups are marginalized by the said power struggle since the political discourse of the country remains by and large hostage to artificially generated issues leaving no space for genuine and vital challenges faced by the people of oppressed nationalities.‖ (Khattak A. , 2016).
Bangladesh is one such example that separated from Pakistan and became a haunting security scenario in the short history of Pakistan. It faces repeated Security Dilemma as disintegration threatens Pakistan in the wake of deprivation and lack of social justice felt in parts of Baluchistan and to a lesser extent in interior and urban Sindh. A general grudge on the institutional, political and economic dominance of province of Punjab is shared by almost all the remaining three provinces, who deem the majority province of Punjab; hindering provincial autonomy. Identity crisis has been the biggest factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. That makes it a major political and physical force to reckon with. After British Raj and till partition and to date this aspect has played a vital role in its making and breaking as a state.
53 Figure 3: Dynamic of Freedom Movements gives Way to sub Movements
• It was an Indian freedom Movement
The End of British • Resulted in the Partitian of India Raj
• Rising of Freedom Movement in India Pakistan got divided
Creation of India • Bangladesh got independence from Pakistan and Pakistan
• There is an increased momentum of freedom movement in India.
After 6 decades of • Pakistan: Bluchistan, Mohajir, Sindhi, and Pashtun nationalists occasionally rise for their freedom of India separation on foreign instigation. and Pakistan
The 1857 sepoy revolt formed 65% of Hindus and non-Muslims Indians and very less percentage of Muslims but Muslims suffered the most as British Empire deemed them as major proponent of such a movement through Christian ethos. (Dalrymple, 2007). Any movement against a foreign rule was deemed under the leadership of Muslim cadres seen through historical prejudices and crusade mentality. The religion and ideological changes are rusted with the dogmas and normative tendencies less to do with the faith itself. Almost all the faith and in this case Islam as well was permeated with shades of local cultures and customs that have resulted in the creation of additional sects in it. Religion, dogmas, traditions, Roman law, and tribal cultures overlapped to make it prone to the hub of controversies and political intrigue in international relations. This anatomy of self- preservation can be taken as a natural consequence. This shows another phenomenon that the presence of a bigger enemy unites the local political entities and when they successfully defeat them; the exerting communities start focusing on their own interest and causes for their exclusive status that might end in chaos and separation. This vicious cycle leads to a persistent security threat to national integrity as it is always prone to foreign intrigues against which both struggled to get freedom from. This fission model creates so many weaker states that are prone to be dominated by the powerful international state actors.
54 3.6: Policy Formulation Process and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Pakistan has not seriously tried to learn from its failure in seeking a viable security option. It is due to Pakistan failure to an integrated and cohesive National Interest based National Security plan and policy.
Pakistan as part of South Asia has a peculiar character in its foreign policy making as ―within the broader context of South Asia… foreign policy is a small countries‘ survival game (Liao, January,2017)‖. Policy making in Pakistan lacks a particular theoretical perspective, working of a comprehensive systematic organization, bureaucratic input and political direction. Lack of economic development and a deficient intellectual input also is a factor that results in incoherent response of Pakistan in international relations. Such policies lack the process of debate and contribution of all the segments of society as it is monopolized by a politically privileged group due to their better foreign connections as is common in most of the illiterate and democratically less developed regions where Pakistan exists. Thus weak political culture, lack of parliamentary discipline and whimsical decision making by individual leaders increases security instability resulting in terrorism chaos and Security Dilemma. As observed by Christopher Hill in his paper‘ that, ―…Individual rulers can use foreign policy as a weapon in their competition with political rivals at home‖ (Clapham, 1977, p.5).
A policy lacking taxonomy, intellectual and technical support in its scrutiny adds to international relations complications thus chances of more insecurity due to distrust as a consequence of an incoherent foreign policy tool. Pakistan lacks that kind of bureaucratic input in its foreign policy to ensure taxonomy and balance to avail its own share of national interest. The kind of infirmity that results in Pakistan foreign policy impacts negatively on her International Relations mistrust. Mistrust is a major element of creating Security Dilemma.
Another factor for such lacking is lack of training and political manipulation in appointments. Pakistan civil service has been prone to political interference. This is reflected in International Crisis Group Report:
―Decades of mismanagement, political manipulation and corruption have rendered Pakistan‘s civil service incapable of providing effective governance and basic public services. In public
55 perceptions, the country‘s 2.4 million civil servants are widely seen as unresponsive and corrupt, and bureaucratic procedures cumbersome and exploitative.‖ (Group, 2010)
It is markedly noted that Pakistan lacks a full hierarchical scrutiny in policy making. That means government lacks full control on the policy making process where it is debated and discussed and becomes a consensual product. That also impacts its security as this input deficient process makes it vulnerable to many international relations pitfalls by conflicting with the international political environment those result in isolation and lack of international support confronting a Security Dilemma.
The question arises why Pakistan which falls in the South Asian decolonized regions has not depended on or evolved a hierarchal system in formulating its policies in general and foreign policy in particular. This observation has been researched in the broader regional terms where Pakistan is located under somewhat similar political conditions. Michael Leifer, a British international political scholar who specializes in South Asian studies is of the view that ―…In South East Asia and the greater part of the decolonized world is a tendency to utilize foreign policy to serve as a domestic political function…within the states of South East Asia, the domain of foreign policy is normally the preserve of a few individuals and in few cases effective decisions are made only by one man… not only this practice insulates foreign policy from domestic influences, but it also makes the process unduly cumbersome and protracted as decisions, often of minimal import, cannot be made by the official foreign ministry hierarchy, but have to wait pleasures of one overburdened individual.‖ (Leifer M. , 1977, p.27,32,33).
The Pakistan policy parameters give a matching model. Pakistan foreign policy has remained out of foreign office hierarchy for decision making input. The foreign policy remained at the whims of either one person or a group disposed to oblige foreign influence to weigh in foreign support and blessing to hedge it against military or rival powerful political groups at home. Such a practice of courting foreign support has been used to remain in citadel, a peculiarity akin to Pakistani political culture.
The example of approaching US through a memo handed over by former Pakistan Ambassador to US, Hussain Haqqani seeking US‘s physical intervention to ward off what the
56 civilian government considered a military takeover threat to PPP government under President Asif Ali Zardari10is an example of stability degeneration that has reached to a level to call powerful supporters to intervene in domestic affairs which is considered an act of treason according to the law.
That indicates the extent of eroded sovereignty and potential of a Security Dilemma that can be caused with a little error in international political calculus.
―The memo allegedly refers to ―a dangerous devolution of the ground situation in Islamabad where no control appears to be in place‖. It adds that if the military does take over, Pakistan may ―become a sanctuary for Osama bin Laden‘s legacy and potentially the platform for far more rapid spread of al Qaeda‘s brand of fanaticism and terror‖ (Tribune, World, 2011)
As has been seen in the present international political environment that, a weaker nation state needs to be allied with powerful nations‘ interest. A state resorting to such an alliance aims to complement its Security, infrastructural, and economic deficiencies which results in dependence. This kind of dependence is always at the cost of compromising part of state sovereignty. Pakistan in the wake of its arch rival India has been projecting its role in anti-communist bloc which has been primarily aimed at countervailing India. After the end of cold war this leverage does not exist anymore. India was behind communists‘ bloc during the cold war time and switched after the cold war to fraternize with US quite pragmatically when it prevailed and became the sole predominant world power. It became all the more worrying for Pakistan to see this deteriorating balance of power to her national interest disfavor. National interest of the anti-communist bloc and Pakistan converged till the existential threat of communist advances towards the ‗warm waters‘. The reach to ‗warm waters‘ remained a long lasting desire of the Russian imperials which remained part of later strategic designs of former USSR and now Russia even: ―Fifty-one years prior to the birth of the United States Peter the Great died, leaving behind his celebrated will in which he advised his subjects to " ... approach as near as possible to Constantinople and India. Whoever governs there will be the true sovereign of the world. Consequently, excite
10 Although it is prime minister who is head of government but being most influential and iron hold on the party affair, Asif Ali Zardari is the one who was calling the shots then; including the decision to appoint prime minister whom under Pakistan political environment no one challenges and vetted by through parliament procedures.
57 continual wars, not only in Turkey, but in Persia And, in the decadence of Persia, Penetrate as far as the Persian Gulf advance as far as India." (In today's world, "India" ought to be read as "Pakistan" (Security, nd)
After the end of cold war the utility of Afghan Jihad became a liability for US and other NATO nations, whereas the Pakistan interest of creating a strategic depth with a pro- Pakistani government remained unaccomplished. The Mujahidin still had a cause to pursue; idealistically they thought what they won must be consolidated with imposition of the ideology that was the inspiration of their fight against communism, but which in the new environment became an anti-thesis for the next Realist move suiting US‘s national interest. It is from this point that a critical phase of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma started.
The realist theory provisions of the USA‘s foreign policy took a short time to swap tactical theme of Jihad for terrorism. For Mujahedeen, after the US expedient tool of Jihad defeated ex-USS.R, the leading communist state; US became by default as next occupying power of Afghanistan. For emerging Taliban resistance this was yet another phase of foreign occupation which invited Taliban resistance. ―The new leader of the Taliban…called on the United States to end its ―occupation‖ of Afghanistan and warned of more bloodshed if it failed to do so.‖ (Wellman, 2016).
Pakistan, showing its inherent ideological character first tried to coalesce with the Taliban by recognizing their government in Afghanistan in oblivion to the USA‘s national interest. The unfortunate Incident of 9th September, 2001, (9/11) proved to be the fateful that provoked a declared war on terrorism and the main battlefield where it was to be fought was Afghanistan and Pakistan. Culturally and ideologically, Pakistan was stalled to decide which way to go. The pursuit of national interest‘s failure resulted in Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma where it was trapped between allies and enemies.
Pakistan under the rule of General Pervez Musharraf was coerced to retreat under the threat that, ―Pakistan could either totally acquiesce to the Bush administration‘s demands for ―cooperation‖ in the ―war on terror‖ or ―Be prepared to be bombed. Be prepared to go back to the Stone Age.‖ Thought this was denied, but the effects of the tone were no different
58 when the then US President George. W. Bush said in his post-9/11speech addressing the world nations ―You are either with us or against us.‖ This created a threatening effect and a fear of Security Dilemma that superseded the pursuit of fraternization with the elements of a favorable Taliban government in Afghanistan aiming at strategic depth. ―Musharraf, in his autobiography, In the Line of Fire… claims that he ―war-gamed the US as an adversary,‖ but concluded that in any such clash Pakistan would have been crushed, especially since Pakistan‘s arch-rival India would have sought to exploit the situation. (Musharraf, 2006) The security conditions that followed, though saved a perceived immediate threat, but proved to be a protracted saga of imminent Security Dilemma, Pakistan is increasingly facing internally as well as externally. India adjusted to Pakistan‘s position in the war on terror and invested strategically in Afghanistan, making economic and development inroads successfully that added to the already persisting threat from India (Khattak M. U., 2011). India was also suspected of intriguing Baloch separatists by training Baloch Liberation Army recruits and harboring Baloch leadership. (Abbas, 2016). The complexity of scene shaped like, Pakistan role in the war on terrorism and neutralizing effects of international skepticism about its perceived favorable contacts with Taliban against whom Pakistan was a sworn ally. The negative projection of Pakistan by US backed Afghanistan ruling elite, secular and Northern Political factions, alleging that Pakistan is hosting the troubles and is harboring and abetting Pashtun factions astride the Durand line that triggers civil wars in Afghanistan. Iran estranged on sectarian killings reflected in a British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) analysis that ―Iran suspect covert support for Jundullah is coming from Pakistan's powerful intelligence service, the ISI‖ and although denying this in the very next lines that, ―But the two states have in the past co-operated in suppressing Balochi nationalism - and also have important economic ties - so it seems unlikely Pakistan would want to antagonize its powerful neighbor.‖ (Hardy, 2010) It shows the low shades of Pakistan‘s international policy and the discontent of countries that matter in the Pakistan national security.
59 3.7: The Overlapping Pak-Afghan Factors Impacting Pakistan’s National Security
With a parallel political development in both Afghanistan and Pakistan, Afghanistan was intervened by USS.R, as in Pakistan a military regime was busy dealing with the political outcries against dictatorship. US with Western governments was faced with the geopolitical threat due to communist advances and the recipe to stop it was none but again through tribal of Pakistan‘s FATA regions supplementing Afghan Jihad against Soviet occupation. American CIA and Pakistan‘s ISI worked together to arm, fund and supply logistics. Steve Coll, who wrote the famous book on CIA operations in Afghanistan, ‗Ghost Wars‘ said in an interview:
―… in 1979 when the Soviets invaded during the Carter administration, and it really swelled between 1981 and 1985. Essentially, under Bill Casey, the [Director] CIA created a three-part intelligence alliance to fund and arm the Mujahadeen, initially to harass Soviet occupation forces and eventually they embraced the goal of driving them out. The three-way alliance in each of the parties had a distinct role to play. The Saudi, their intelligence service primarily provided cash. Each year the congress would secretly allocate a certain amount of money to support the CIA‘s program. After that allocation was complete, the US Intelligence liaison would fly to Riyadh and the Saudis would write a matching check. The US role was to provide logistics and technological support as well as money. The Saudis collaborated with Pakistan‘s intelligence service, ISI, to really run the war on the front lines. It was the Pakistani army, in particular the ISI, that picked the political winners and losers in the jihad, and who favored radical Islamist factions because it suited the Pakistan‘s army goal of pacifying Afghanistan, a long-time unruly neighbor to the west, whose ethnic Pashtun nationalism the army feared. The army saw Islam not only as a motivating force in the anti-Soviet jihad, but as an instrument of Pakistan‘s regional policy to control Afghanistan. The US acquiesced with all of this in part because they thought that the only purpose that brought them to the region was to drive the Soviets out, and they didn‘t really care about local politics. But also because after Vietnam, the generation of CIA officers involved in this program were scarred by their experiences in Southeast Asia, and they essentially operated under a mantra of no more hearts and minds for us. We‘re not good at picking winners and losers in a developing world. Let‘s let the Pakistanis decide who carries this jihad forward. That‘s how the favoritism of the radical Islamic factions was born and nurtured.‖ (Goodman, 2004)
The approaches to Afghanistan and willingness of the people living along these approaches to Afghanistan made a big factor to recruit them as proxies of US and the Western alliance
60 which Pakistan became an important strategic ally. The theme of Islam was used as motivation tool for Afghan tribes and religious groups and Pakistan tribal people to compliment and facilitate recruitment to fight Communism; branding it Jihad. The use of term Jihad was widely misused and propagated as part of US strategic communication. Jihad theme was used to engineer the social fabric of Afghanistan society and became part of primary textbooks for Afghan children. This was so because US was working on a strategy to divert Muslim sentiment against former Soviet Union, who was its arch rival in the world or real politick.
The events that followed after the USSR‘s withdrawal from Afghanistan proved this fact when Mujahedeen were treated indifferently and were abandoned. Supplies of arms and logistics were stopped and rather pro-Soviet Afghan government of Dr. Najeebullah was increased the supply of Soviet arms. US stopped all kind of moral and material support to Mujahedeen who fought Communism as US ally. In the later events US supported Northern Alliances to dislodge the same lot of Mujahedeen who were at the forefront of fighting with USS.R and who made them retreat. The chronology of events suggests a sound strategic planning on part of CIA. Brigadier Yusuf a former ISI official writes, ―With the signing of the Geneva Accord, the whole fabric of the strategy to win the war started to come unraveled. Incredible though it may seem, when the Soviets left Afghanistan and military victory by the Mujahedeen was anticipated by everyone, including both the Soviets and Afghans, there was a deliberate change of policy by the US to prevent it. Both superpowers wanted a stalemate on the battlefield. The Soviets sought to achieve this by their massive beefing up of Afghan army and air force, by importing Scud missiles, by continued use of advisers and by getting Afghans to concentrate their forces in a few strategic cities and bases, particularly Kabul, in order to maintain them at all costs. Above all they had to keep Kabul. To do this they had merely to stay dug in, stay on defensive, make the maximum use of airpower and missiles and keep open an air and land bridge to the Soviet Union. The Soviet planners had grave doubts as to whether or not the Afghan army could survive after they withdrew. If Dr. Najibullah could hang on to what he had got, then chances of a compromise political solution were good. On battlefield winner takes all. Neither the Soviets nor the Americans wanted to see the Mujahedeen in that position‖ (Yousaf, 1992).
61 ―What converted the Afghanistan into this terror radiating machine? Perhaps the answer lies in a USD 53 million projects conducted from 1980-1994 from the US University of Nebraska, Pakistan campus. A US funded project that printed textbooks to teach Afghani children in school the art of war and terror. Dead Russians and guns and other weaponry were the material in these books made for the young readers, to imprint a culture of violence in their infantile minds.‖ (Rescue, 2012). ―Published in the dominant Afghan languages of Dari and Pashtu, the textbooks were developed in the early 1980s under an AID grant to the University of Nebraska-Omaha and its Center for Afghanistan Studies. The agency spent $51 million on the university's education programs in Afghanistan from 1984 to 1994.‖ (Joe Stephens, 2012).
Figure 4: Afghan School Text Books during Jihad
Source: (Rescue, 2012)
Soviets had gone, Jihad had ended but who achieved the objective? It was natural for Islamic resistance to seek out the answer. This is where problem started as the US abandoned their Afghan proxies, Mujahedeen. Pakistan was left to deal singlehandedly with the remnants of Afghan Jihad who made areas adjoining international boundary with Afghanistan as their home. People from all over Muslim world intermingled with local population owing to faith and tribal similarity with FATA Agencies of North and South Waziristan were among most populated with such foreign elements gathered from all over the Muslim world. Osama Bin Muhammad bin Owad bin Laden popularly known as Osama Bin Laden or OBL, an engineer
62 by profession, Yamani ancestry, Saudi citizen and coming from a rich lineage was identified to be the principle financier and coordinator of these foreign troops who fought against Soviet occupation. ―Bin Laden arrived in Afghanistan from Saudi Arabia in 1979, aged 22. Though he saw a considerable amount of combat - around the eastern city of Jalalabad in March 1989 and, earlier, around the border town of Khost - his specialty was logistics.‖ (Burke, 1999)
The resistance was to continue till the occupation of Afghanistan ended and it did. At the end of ‗Jihad‘ against communist Soviets, US objective of defeating communists and break up of Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USS.R.) were achieved so its theme of proxy ‗Jihad‘ became redundant.
3.8: Security Threat: After Afghan Jihad ended
After the last soldier of Soviet Union left on 16 February, 1989. The infighting between South and North factions of Mujahedeen or Afghans gave full control of Afghanistan to southern factions, predominantly Pashtuns and strict believers of Shariah. Keplan reported in ‗Atlantic’:
―Afghanistan fell apart in an orgy of banditry, madrassa students in Pakistan came into contact with uncorrupted backwoodsmen inside Afghanistan; together they filled the vacuum in authority. One of the backwoodsmen was Mullah Mohammed Omar, a Mujahedeen commander who is said to have ignited the Taliban revolt, in early 1994, by leading a small force in Kandahar that captured and hanged from the barrel of a tank a fellow commander guilty of raping two girls.‖ Keplan, characterized Taliban capture that could haunt and European sensibility that anticipated perceived threats he wrote, ―The Taliban rose and swept across late-twentieth-century Afghanistan much as Islam itself had swept across seventh-century Arabia and North Africa, filling the void left by the anarchy and decadence of waning Byzantine rule. In the process of overrunning 80 percent of the country, the Taliban captured Kabul, in 1996. There they carried out amputations and stoning11 and seized the Soviet puppet ruler of Afghanistan, Dr. Najibullah, from a United Nations compound, castrating and jeep-dragging him before hanging him from a traffic post.‖ (Keplon, 2000).
It was beginning of the haunting scenario for Pakistan as the next phase of resistance; directly threatened its own security and internal law and order situation. With the influx of
11 A ‗shariah punishment for thieves‘ dacoits and robbers and those indulging in adultery.
63 weapons and resistance groups who felt abandoned and duped made their own free domains to continue what they called Jihad against foreign occupiers, this time US who swapped Soviets in Afghanistan. It was US policy that aimed at their interest and not of their allies. US did not recognize Taliban due to their religious inclinations.
The internal effect of Taliban rule in Afghanistan impacted Pakistan security they influenced and fraternized Pakistan Jihadi groups as well. Pakistan groups reciprocated by aligning and participating in militant acts, widening it to their own inherent conflicts like Lashkar e Jhangvi, Lashkar e Taiba, Jaish e Muhammad who were found involved in sectarian killings and suicide bombing aimed at military leaders and installations. The highest among such incidents were suicidal attack on former Pakistani President General (Retired) Pervez Musharraf. The suicidal incident surpassed any time past and till to date after an incident in which government launched an operation in Lal Masjid12 in which too many seminary students including military personnel were killed and yet more in retaliatory suicide bombing by the religious cadres. (Iqbal, 2015).
Some of the leading Terrorist groups i.e. Tehreek e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and splinter Punjabi Taliban groups also became estranged with Pakistan government on her policy shift after Pakistan declared it a NATO ally against War on Terrorism. However; certain of the groups maintained their basic policy of fighting what they called foreign occupying forces in Afghanistan and Indian Kashmir. (ibid). In the same study it has been found that, ―overall, the number of terrorist attacks and the resulting casualties also increased manifold and country lost more than 32.000 people including civilians, personnel of laws enforcement agencies and the armed forces. A large number of militants were also included in the total of casualties.‖ (Iqbal, 2015, p. 57).
3.9: Pakistan: Political and Intelligentsia Contributing to Security Dilemma
The people have desire and urge for change, but not power to realize it as they depended on the colonial fixed power centers like feudalism and elitism. Muslim invasions and their
12 Lal Majid is a Mosque cum- religious seminary in the capital city Islamabad, Pakistan,
64 sustained rules, however, played an important role in the construct of parts of the Indian Subcontinent that is now Pakistan. According to Anatol Lieven, an international political scholar based in London, ‗Pakistan is a negotiated state that is weaker than its society, hard, but divided, and indifferent to international environment‘ (Anatol Lieven, 2011). That makes it prone to unintended consequences and has created Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan has so far been seen leaping into the international Realpolitik minefield and have caused much damage to its security and integrity. It is ironical to observe that in all their wars, expeditions and campaigns in India and Afghanistan the intruding foreign power operated against native people by a force recruited from among the same natives, and it worked well too. This establishes the compromising or negotiated character of the native people living in parts of Pakistan and in general is a common sub continental character. This character can be observed from people to leaders who, owing to internal political weakness, seek foreign favors or employment due to varying political and social reasons.
The British elite strived to safeguard their nation‘s interest by using the natives and by class exploitation in Subcontinent societies. The natives leaned more in their own self-interest; killed their own people under British Raj order. The shade of this kind of national character is prevailing today even with its evolutionary manifestations that is contributing to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan was no different to get its shares of people of such character who contributed to its strategic predicaments. In Tribal areas which are now part of Pakistan, to control tribes they built resistance out of the same tribal people which till today makes an ethnic territorial force in character and bear the same old name ‘Frontier Scouts’13. Pakistan Army which is predominantly composed of ethnically Pashtun and Punjabis has their roots in similar military traditions to serve British causes and wars. Pakistan Army units still refer to the same old British soldiery history displayed in their units in symbolic shields and souvenirs. After the creation of Pakistan however, the institutional motivation has changed purely on ideology of Pakistan however, the general character outside the ambit of institutional hierarchy, certain sections of Pakistan society are still prone to such lures to server foreign interest.
13 Frontier Scouts is the original name of what in media is mostly reported as Frontier Corps (FC) consists mostly on ethnic Pashtuns. For further reading in this regards‘ read ‗The Frontier Scouts‘ by Charles Chenivex Trench
65 ―During the First World War, despite the emergency, the recruitment number was sharply contrasted between the regions. Bengal, with a population of 45 million, provided 7,000 combatant recruits; the Punjab, with a population of 20 million, provided 349,000 such recruits.72NWFP, with a population of 2.25 million, contributed 32,181 combatant recruits‖ (Soherwordi, 2010)14.
Hussain Haqqani while serving as Pakistan ambassador to US was at the center of controversy ―… have written a memo to Adm. Mike Mullen, the top US military officer at the time, asking for his assistance in installing a ''new security team'' in Islamabad that would be friendly to Washington.‖ (Dawn, news, 2011). It is a matter of a general perception in Pakistan with the evidence of chronology of US law making and diplomatic communications that Pakistan‘s officials have been hobnobbing with foreign officials. Hussain Haqqani helped insert anti-army clauses, ―Provisions in Kerry Lugar Bill‖ (The enhanced partnership with Pakistan act 2009). ‗The Nation’ a major Pakistani English daily had called him an ‗American Agent‘ (Ahmad F. , 2011). Hussain Haqqani, the former ambassador to US under President Zardari‘s government, issued a large number of visas to unverified US persons by Pakistani security establishment tantamount to breach of national security. (Tribune T. E., 2011). Pakistan defense minister Khawaja Asif gave a veiled statement about Hussain Haqqani in the parliament in which he said that, ― a former ambassador and Indian lobby are conspiring against US supplying F-16 to Pakistan…Former ambassador and Indian lobby are on the same page‖ (Nation T. , News, 2016). The same newspaper explained this statement further writing, ―According to sources Khawaja Asif was pointing at Hussain Haqqani who was Pakistani ambassador to US during the Zardari government. He left Pakistan following the Memo scandal‖. (ibid). Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma can be measured from the fact an ambassadorial level official displayed highly unbecoming diplomatic conduct.
After partition, Pakistan could not address fundamental faults and Pakistan became the domain of land owning families and elite industrialists. Pakistan has not shown any resilience to have a firm social control to do justice to the greater interest of the populace. This gave birth to a kinship and chauvinistic society prone to corruption, discontent and military interventions. This also resulted in not too good, civil, military relation and eroded
14 Primary source from where the data was obtained by the author: Report of the Statutory Commission, RCIO, p.61 and RCIO 4th Volumes, East India Continued, p.96.( Marked as ref 71 and 72 on the cited paper)
66 the institutional efficacy due to which it could not develop a democratic political system and a formidable military power. Internally its elite has been inefficient and self-centered community that inclined to seek foreign patronage and local perks negotiating internally and externally by exploiting sub-national, sectarian, tribal and ethnic issues. This is sign of a politically weaker state that many of its political leaders live comfortably in foreign country and exert tremendous influence internally. These leaders control party affairs and make decisions by calling their party executive meetings in London, Dubai and elsewhere. Names of leader of Pakistan top political parties‘ leaders and their family members and others have appeared in an investigative report maintaining million dollars offshore accounts investigated and released by International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ). (ICIJ, 2017)
The politicians make on the top ten richest list of Pakistan with former Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif placed at 3rd and 5th positions. (abcnews, 2017).
Any state with the right sense of security will never allow external control of their political parties the way it is done in Pakistan. Foreign countries have provided Pakistani political parties a platform without any scrutiny. The question arises can the same be tolerated if Pakistan allows any anti-Western elements to use its soil to say what can undermine their national security? Altaf Hussain is free to make anti Pakistan speeches from London, UK. ―…Sayeeda Warsi, the former Conservative party chair, tweeted to say British citizens must not be allowed to use the country as a base for political violence against allies.‖ (Luke Harding, 2016)
US has a long list of their wanted people who were captured from Pakistan and taken to American jails. One of the most popular among them is a woman Afiya Siddiqui a well- educated lady whom the people of Pakistan think, have been dishonorably treated and unjustly tried in courts. Personal vendetta and institutional imbalance is one of the factors of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Military rules in Pakistan should not be traced in personalities and institutional misdirection but as a whole political consequence.
Political disorder rooted in feudalism, kinship and corrupt power houses is one of the major causes that irritates national pulse and results in undemocratic interventions in the notion of
67 straightening it up which has always failed. Pakistan political ‗mafia‘ has proved to be the worst foreign client against Pakistan‘s interest. Most of the political cadre of Pakistan stands on the shoulders of foreign support rendered to it for their all-out slavish services ranging from bombing own people via drones or help to undermine the security of Pakistan.
3.10: Muhajir Discontent and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
In Pakistan the only political party that claims professing the ‗Philosophy of Realism‘ is Muttahida Qoumi Movement, (MQM) [Pakistan]. Altaf Hussain, its party chief writes, ―Realism is an act of accepting reality in its actual spirit and essence including facts, physical universe, events, necessities of life, ground realities, favorable or unfavorable situations, conditions and atmosphere, as they are, as opposed to the abstract or ideal. In this regard a practical approach is adopted rather than having ideal, moral, religious or romantic approach.‖ MQM further elaborates sub-section of Realism as ‗Practicalism‘ it explains, ―Practicalism also means that ideas should not be based merely on truth but can change the world with success practically.‖ (MQM, 1998)15. MQM claims realism as its official political philosophy that has a direct bearing on Pakistan‘s security as this party has been seen offering its services to United Kingdom for human intelligence for survival based on the same ideology (TheNews, 2011). Since MQM politically controls the largest economic and strategic nerve of Pakistan in the port city of Karachi, it has direct bearing on the Security Dilemma of Pakistan with realism as its party philosophy and have an ‗active militia‘ of 10,000 ‗gunmen‘ and 25, 000 reserves. These facts strengthen the popular perception in Pakistan that MQM is extended domestic arm of international realism that believes in use of militancy and power in national politics that has aggravated Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. New York Times in a report published on 12 September, 2013 writes: ―Other major Pakistani parties indulge in similar behavior, but the Muttahida Qaumi Movement frequently brings the most muscle to the fight. An American diplomatic cable from 2008 titled ―Gangs of Karachi,‖ The report further quotes the details made public by the Wiki Leaks that estimates that the party
15 The link from where the primary information about MQM ideology of ‗Realism‘ and ‗Practicalism‘ has been obtains remain unstable and at time the link is down. As an alternative the information about the MQM ideology can be read on this link as a alternate source: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/document/papers/manifesto.htm Retrieved on 10th January, 2017.
68 had an active militia of 10,000 gunmen, with an additional 25,000 in reserve — a larger force, the dispatch notes, than the city police‖ (youtube, 2011). Further to above revelations, US Embassy in Pakistan dispatched this information included in the same quote, ―These armed men are involved in extortion, assassination of political rivals, shootings at campaign rallies, and the murder of people from other ethnic communities.‖ This gives substance to the fact that MQM realist philosophy makes a factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Altaf Hussain is one of such examples who allegedly orders killings of opponents and has the final say on law and order in the important strategic city of Karachi by living comfortably in London. A report published in the ‗New York Times’ quoted Farzana Sheikh, an academician and author of ‗Making Sense of Pakistan’ wrote ―He is immensely charismatic, in the way one thinks of the great fascist leaders of the 20th century.‖ (Declan Welsh , 2013) The report also quotes a primary document issued from US Embassy and leaked through Wiki Leaks giving MQM profile as, ―…MQM‘s armed members, known as ‖Good Friends,\‖ are the largest non-governmental armed element in the city. The police estimate MQM has ten thousand active armed members and as many as twenty-five thousand armed fighters in reserve‖. This is compared to the city‘s thirty-three thousand police officers. The party operates through its 100 Sector Commanders, who take their orders directly from the party leader, Altaf Hussain, who lives in exile in the United Kingdom. The Sector Commanders plan and monitor the activities of the armed elements. MQM‘s detractors claim these armed men are involved in extortion, assassination of political rivals, shootings at campaign rallies, and the murder of people from other ethnic communities.‖ The US Embassy situation report cable estimated MQM militia, a larger force than the city police.‖ (LeaksWiki, 2011).
3.11: The Leadership Debacle
After the Pakistan movement euphoria settled down with attainment of independence, the political section of dubious character, who kept a low profile in the clear anticipation of the divide of the Subcontinent, came to life once again to grab power and perks in the new state of Pakistan. This political class was composed of mostly clients of the Raj, allottees of large estates in exchange for supporting the Raj, who aimed at exploiting the comparative weakness of new political order still under the psychological awe of the leaving empire thus under the influence of their cronies. This resulted in Pakistan‘s leadership saga. Pakistani
69 society has the characteristics of sub continental stock, a sedentary society that tends to mostly serve than to lead. It is due to rich resources and settled way of life that makes one to maintain status quo and resist experimenting of change at risk of what one is provided with already.
Security of regions where Pakistan is situated has been at the mercy of foreign invaders which in the absence of a leader could not be defended formidably. It was after the end Mughal Empire and start of modern political ear at the end of British rule that provided an opportunity to struggle through a political system. This non-violent movement is a model which bred freedom.
Pakistani society‘s democratic ideals are trumped by kinship pitfalls. It would vote to feudal and on the basis of ‗Biradari‘ and would expect them to protect their rights. One can expect a known criminal elected by Pakistanis as member of their law making body at the cost of an honest and capable contender from the opposite clan. The political hierarchy in Pakistan remains within a family or clan, where son succeeds father and even not too mature next generation is considered by default the next leader of their illiterate masses as is in the case of Bilawal Zardari Bhutto who was declared chairman of Pakistan‘s biggest political party without any political credential but being son and grandson of two former prime ministers one hanged and one assassinated. It was more out of sympathy than qualification that made his status unchallenged. According to a report in the daily ‗Dawn’, ‗A former Election Commission Secretary recently alleged that up to 148 federal and provincial parliamentarians possess fake degrees — 46 cases are pending investigation by the commission‘ (Huma, 2010). This shows a glimpse of national legislators‘ character assigned the top job of statesmanship. This observation is common in studies about Pakistani political parties as with no different tone (Lieven, 2011) notes about the political parties that, ‗whatever their, ‗democratic‘ pretentions, both parties, (Pakistan People‘s Party and Pakistan Muslim League- N) in fact function as dynastic autocracies, with no internal election and all key decisions and appointments made by the head of the dynasty and his or her closest relatives and advisers at the time writing there is no sign that either of these parties is capable of transcending these deeply ingrained patterns of Pakistani life‘(p.80).
70 3.12: Dependence and Its Impact on Security Dilemma
Pakistan is a highly dependent country due to non-existence of industrial base and a fair economic structure, Pakistan‘s inclusion in foreign military alliances is not due to a direct interest in ideological or power politics but to extract its own share of aid and military advantage that it can milk through military alliances. The Security Dilemma can be assigned to the factor of joining alliances which put Pakistan under the obligation to do that all which resulted Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Pakistan‘s support to Afghan mujahedeen during Eighties cost her too heavy. Both the Super Powers dumped their war effects on Pakistan‘s major cities and town. During ‗Jihad‘ against communists, Pakistan faced sabotage activities that resulted in bomb blasts aided and planned by KGB the former USS.R.‘s intelligence agency. Giving details of such KGB/Khad activities Dr. Khalil R. Rahmany that Khad and KGB trained saboteurs killed hundreds of Pakistanis and mujahedeen to lower their morale (R.Rahmany, 2014) p.80. These sabotage activities affected economic activity and loss of innocent civil life resulting in a high sense of insecurity and Security Dilemma.
Another paper by a US military officer describes the same kind of Khad sabotage acts in Pakistan as following:
―KHAD operatives have also been instrumental in a subversive campaign among the refugee camps in Pakistan. There, they sow discord and rivalry among various factions and help promote ill-will by Pakistanis against the refugees by exploding bombs in the already over-crowded streets of Peshawar.‖ (Dick, 1987).
False flag operation by NATO forces were planned on the same theme after their war objectives in Afghanistan were fulfilled and mujahedeen as a proxy force became obsolete. Now the US glamorizing of mujahedeen came to an end and the new strategic jagon of Taliban became synonym to Terrorists. To defame the Taliban movement who started the second phase of resistance against the US needed an element of strategic communication to lower Taliban image to justify US War on Terrorism. James F Tracy wrote in global research portal that:
71 ―False flag operations and assassinations are a central component of the elaborate psychological warfare campaign waged on the American public to justify the so-called ―global war on terrorism,‖ (Tracy, 2014)
Staged sabotage acts were meant to show that this is due to the Taliban fighting foreign forces thus limiting their support base to portray them as terrorists. Besides US counter insurgency operation resulted in Afghanistan and Pakistan‘s border areas chaos and disorder as owing to tribal environment and an historical resistance base against foreign occupations FATA became the origin of resistance. This situation added to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as Taliban blamed Pakistan for conniving with US in the War on Terrorism.
Raymond Davis, a former special forces officer hired by CIA for coordinating covert intelligence operation who perused by Pakistani security agencies‘ operatives felt being caught red handed and resorted to shoot two of them but was captured however. (Walsh E. M., 2011). He was let free on a ‗Shariah‘ provision in the Pakistani law called, ‗Diyat’ according to which a murderer can give a monitory compensation to the family of deceased to save capital punishment. Raymond Davis crime was not just murder but corollary to his espionage act threatening national security which could not adjudicated under US pressure who took away their men overawing Pakistan. The Raymond Davis episode shows the limit of Pakistan response to the security threat and her Security Dilemma.
Pakistan, during the early 1980s was facing parallel Security Dilemma with Afghanistan after Soviet occupation. This development in Afghanistan had an indirect but dire effect on the internal politics and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The ethnic, linguistic, and sub nationalist movements became heavily armed, fed by influx of weapons spilling over from anti- Soviet Jihad in Afghanistan. The then military regime of General Zia-Ul-Haq decided to align with US anti Communist war to contain Soviets who had intervened in Afghanistan with the help of communist affiliates in Afghanistan. The concept was to wound Soviets with guerilla warfare with the logistics and communication lines running through the heart of Pakistan. ―Pakistan became frontline state. We fought the war [along] with the Afghans, the Americans, the Europeans, and the Saudis, and we won. But we aid a very heavy price. Kalashnikovs, mortars, rockets, Stringer missiles, and other sophisticated armaments found
72 their way into Pakistan‘s arms market. Soon Pakistan was awash with in weapons of the most lethal kind, weapons that remain in the private hands to this day.‖ (Musharruf, 2006, p. 160).
‗As the Afghan War wound down in the early 1990s, Pakistan was mired in what one Wall Street Journal article described as ‗the worst outbreak of lawlessness in its history‘, and ‗the US, it turns out, inadvertently helped supply the firepower‘ (Hilali, 2002)16. The weapon influx due to guerilla war logistic flow in Afghanistan supplied by helped, mushroom independent and political armed groups like Muhajir Qaumi Movement (MQM) modified later due to political reason to Mutahida Qaumi Movement, Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and comparatively dormant Sindhi sub-nationalists. Among these MQM is the most potent armed outfit having the potential to seize major economic activities of Pakistani, its coastal city Karachi. MQM maintains intellectual, political and militant equilibrium. It can be safely assumed that it is politically and militantly more dreaded than the official institutions. BLA has the potential to threaten mineral-rich regions of Pakistan dominating strategic sea lanes and emerging new Gwadar port linking sea and land routes with Central Asia, Middle East and with Iran and Afghanistan with more prominence as it neighbors Pakistan. This makes it a vital security concern as, in the case of any security criticality, Pakistan can be put to a dire state of Security Dilemma.
3.13: The National Power Traits of Pakistan and its Impact on Security Dilemma
A nation can safeguard and sustain itself only through political power. What is political power? Morgenthau defines it as the capability to impose the will of others by the ‗virtue of the authority…the promise of benefits, and the threat of disadvantages...political power is a psychological relation between those who exercise it and those over whom it is exercised. It gives the former control over certain actions of the latter. He adds further that, ‗Whatever the material objectives of a foreign policy, such as the acquisition of sources of raw materials, the control of sea lanes, or territorial changes, they always entail control of actions of others
16 Quoted from Bussey, John, to the feuds, malaise and guns of Pakistan comes the free market Wall Street Journal, 31 July 1991.
73 through influence over their minds‘. Pakistan occupies position at the ‗pole of indifference‘ in the international politics as it lacks leverage thus influence in international affairs. It can trade international favors to compensate this weakness by passive means of aligning itself with one of the better international relation bidder that has been generally at odds with the internal national perspectives and ideals. Nations ‗define their goals‘ in terms of a religious, philosophic, economic, or social ideal‘. The genesis of Pakistan was based on a religious ideal that was not compatible to the international social, economic and philosophical ideals of Capitalism, Communism and international political economy. Political power emits through the national power. ‗A nation‘ according to Morgenthau ‗is an abstraction from a number of individuals who have certain characteristics in common‘ (Morgenthau H. J., 1991).
To evaluate the power of a nation, certain factors are to be considered, these include geography: the strategic location, food; for self-sufficiency, raw material; for industrial production, energy resources; power and gas, industrial capacity, military preparedness, technology, quantity and quality of armed forces, population; includes national morale, national character, quality of governance, diplomacy and size and finally leadership. (ibid). Pakistan has a lopsided balance in all these traits. It has not even faith as common as it is vastly divided due to sectarianism, else all is but uncommon. It has resources but not right kind of governance to manage. It has a disciplined, well-sized and well-trained military that is usually stuck in political turmoil due to incapable political leadership. The national morale is spontaneous and is only projected on the occasions of national celebrations with projection of media hype and is not well rooted in the major elements of national power. The frequently quoted example to substantiate this argument is Pakistani complacency on US drone strikes, its role in handing over of certain Pakistanis demanded by USA and lack of resilience shown instead to try them at home.
Anatol Lieven characterizes Pakistani society as, ―A highly conservative, archaic, even sometimes quite inert and somnolent mass of different societies with two modern impulses fighting to wake it up.‖ (Lieven, Pakistan: A Hard Country, 2011). This typical indifference of Pakistan society drives Lieven to the conclusion that they reject both the concept of modern democracy and the reformation of Islam first due to the hatred for the Western modernity and US intrusiveness as an anti-thesis to their archaic lifestyle and the former due
74 to cultural and class reasons, as the Islam hit at the very roots of kinship or ‗nepotism and feudalism, pervasive in Pakistan society. ‗Both Westerners and Islamists see the battle between them as apocalyptic, and ending with the triumph of good or evil. Yet there is a fair chance that Pakistan will in effect shrug both of them off, roll over and go back to sleep.‘ This shows a split in Pakistan society, political party agenda, and the government and also indifference to the international political environment each working oblivious to others. This paints a bleak security scenario as without inter-governmental, social and political deep rooted coordination or harmony, a robust security response remains in doldrums and has added to Pakistani Security Dilemma. This view is reinforced by (James S. M., 1993) who observed that, ‗One problem was that the Pakistani government had no mandate from Pakistani people to enter into an alliance with the United States. Such an alliance had never been part of the Muslim League‘s program before the patrician‘ he observes that, had Pakistani people given a natural choice, suiting to the third world natural tendency, ‗…There was no good reason to suppose that the Pakistani people would choose differently if and when they were given the opportunity‘ He digs into another hidden dichotomy that, ‗There was a deeper motive for Ayub Khan and others in signing up as a military client of America. In their hearts they knew that their objectives and American‘s were not the same, for they believed- in common with almost everyone in Pakistan- that the real threat to their country was from India‘ James concludes, ‗I judged that these arrangements-admirable though they might seem on the surface (to James as diplomat) – in fact contained the seeds of future trouble‘ (p.21). What this diplomat veteran concluded in the early days of Pakistan has been vindicated in the events that reflect Pakistani Security Dilemma rooted in its wrong and dichotomous policy formulation.
3.14: FATA: The Tribal Culture and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Another factor that compounds Pakistan‘s security problem is the ‗martial‘ character of its tribal belt of North West region Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA) which defy writ of government. The option to use their marshal status has been almost an ardent option with Pakistan‘s foreign policy makers. Pakistan tried to address its balance of power with India using readily available option of tribal ‗Lashkar‘ or legions of FATA adjoining Afghanistan borders. The tribes, naturalized fighters have a history of readily available force
75 that could be lured with money, religious motivation and self-preservation. Tribal regions of Pakistan from Gomal to Broghal have been deemed a security buffer and threat at the same time, depending on their affiliations in the time in point. During British Empire they were instigated, bribed and religiously motivated or exploited to create troubles for British as a political leverage of Afghan rulers and after Pakistan was created they forcefully supported its cause of creation and displayed an enthusiastic role in instances where ‗Islam‘ was felt in ‗danger‘ as cliché goes under any kind of threat by any of the non-Muslims or secular section. This study doesn‘t intend to justify or negate a particular aspect of the people mentioned but to establish the character owing to which they become relevant to security study involving regions around them. Tribal being a constant variables of their political role has been numerous that all depended on the basic tribal character.
Pakistani tribes share family roots astride the Pak- Afghan international boundary. This makes them share effects of social and political upheavals on either side. Their posture depends on the promise of their preservation propelled with the motivation of a religion- tribal overlapping. They seemed at the forefront of militant response and resistance to British campaigns and advances, Hindu Muslim conflicts like famous Islam Bibi case (Musings, 2008) in undivided India.
After the partition, Pakistan took no time to identify their readily available zeal and sentiments to exploit or make good use of it for the liberation of the state of Jammu & Kashmir, a chronic cause of dispute between India and Pakistan. It was followed by three wars one of the last of these cut Pakistan‘s Eastern part in to Bangladesh and threatened the security of the remaining Western half. This resulted in a great military and national humiliation and a low international rapport in the comity of nations. Losing face in international community creates a natural sense of insecurity as pride is eroded and people are psychologically subdued. Pakistan desperately needed to impress with its strategic weighed to upgrade its international rating and to ameliorate its image.
Faqir of Ippi of North Waziristan was used against the government of Pakistan by the former USSRSir William Barton an Indian civil service veteran wrote in an article in ‘Foreign Affairs’ in 1950 that, ―…In Afghanistan, the Soviet Embassy in Kabul is intriguing with the
76 border tribes, and especially with the Faqir of Ippi, a declared enemy of the Pakistan government.‖ (Barton, Pakistan Claim on Kashmir, 1950, p.300).
According to a report there are 13000 ‗Madrasas‘ or religious seminaries in Pakistan, 97% of these are run privately with 1.8 million students enrolled. (Dawn, 2015). Pakistan was internally affected as the bulk of Taliban were identified with the seminaries, on the border fringes of Peshawar and Quetta. Punjabi Taliban joined the major cadre of Taliban from South Punjab semi-tribal and religious leaning populace, from where major chunk of Punjabi Taliban were recruited. This link should not be confused with special training facilities mean to fight Afghan Jihad which the US established. These seminaries were there; well before the start of Jihad against communists. The world Taliban is a plural of Pashto word Talib which mean student. USA took advantage of the religious sentiment and motivation of Taliban for using them as proxy in US-engineered Jihad. This however, had unintended consequences which US later considered as threat to its soldiers in Afghanistan after the former USSR left Afghanistan? US pressurized Pakistan to fight against these mix and in initial stages not-so- distinguished groups which could be told from good to bad. The friendly to foe treatment meted out to Taliban groups created retaliatory feelings against the Pakistani military and government and they started bombing and targeting Pakistan Army and anything identified with the officials and political parties supporting action against them became a valid target for the Taliban groups.
3.15: Institutional and Political Mistrust and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
The institutional distrust is another element that affected Pakistan internally. Civil-military mistrust was set in Pakistan‘s policy culture right from the early days it was trying to stand on its feet after its birth. It inherited a weak political and bureaucratic cadres but a discipline though not well equipped military with an impulse to act and organize where it was needed. The political parties have no grass root level leadership with the exception of MQM and right wing Jamaat-e-Islami. Pakistani political parties‘ the major political parties Pakistan Muslim League and Pakistan People Party are infested with feudal, kinship, oligarchic and dynastic political elite groups. There is no system of internal election for party leadership as all the decisions are made by the dynastic or oligarchic control. This political fault line has further
77 been aggravated by foreign support to this kind of political set up as an easy option or better suited to the interest of the foreign supporters. A factor of bad political culture is blamed at military interventions.
Military interventions-that involve major security establishment with politics and thus deny its working on the political aspect of the security- have been due to its view of political system as non-democratic in essence. Field Marshal Ayub Khan writes in his memoires, ‗How can you run a parliamentary democracy, when you have big landlords in the country who can influence thousands of votes….when you have ten or fifteen or more political parties without any program whatsoever…when you have not even reached the level of universal primary education?‘ And to justify the takeover he adds, ‗if we had gone on for another five or ten years the way we were going, we should have been doomed.‘ (Khan F. M., 1967). During the military rule under Field Marshal Ayub Khan the state did not tend to be religious. The emphasis during that period remained on economic and infrastructural development however, it remained permeated in the ideological ethos of military displayed on its website as ‗Eemaan, Taqwa, Jihad fi sabilillah’ the motto of Pakistan Army with a short statement explaining the concept ‗In Chapter II verse 190 of The Holy Quran the reference to the duty of the Muslims to ―Fight in the cause of God those who fight you and be not aggressors. God loveth not those who are aggressors.‘ (Army, 2014)
The way military affected the ideological orientation is viewed by (Haqqani, 2005), as, ‗Pakistan state institutions, especially its national security institutions such as military and intelligence services, have played a leading role in building Pakistani national identity on the basis of religion…this political commitment to an ideological state gradually evolved into a strategic commitment to Jihadi ideology- the ideology of war,‘ aiming at, ‗Strategic depth in Afghanistan and to put pressure on India for negotiations over future of Kashmir‘. He identifies that, ‗General Zia-ul-Haq( former military President of Pakistan) went farther than others in ‘Islamizing‘ Pakistan‘s legal and education system, but his policy of Islamization was the extension of a consistent state ideology.‘ He further links ideology of religion ‗to national cohesion between Pakistan‘s disparate ethnic and linguistic groups through religion, took on greater significance and its manifestations became more militant.‘ Haqqani further asserts that, ‗Religious groups, both armed and unarmed, have become gradually more
78 powerful as a result of this alliance between the mosque (religious groups) and the military. Radical and violent manifestations of Islamist ideology, which sometimes appear to threaten Pakistan‘s stability, are in some ways a state project gone wrong.‘ (p.3). Hussian Shaheed Soharwardy Prime Minister of Pakistan during 1956-57 was proponent of Pakistan as a secular and ‗in terms of a nation state‘. He was against visions of pan-Islamism as he deemed it impracticable and of little gain. (p.39). A very logical conclusion of his view in international relations is valid even today that ‗government should explain the rationale of Pakistan‘s external relations to the people and secure their support for its alliances abroad instead of operating secretly.‘(ibid). Morrice James an ex-British High Commissioner to Pakistan for a long time during that time was of the view that had Pakistan been on democratic track and elections were held regularly, Pakistan might have found a national leader like Hussain Shaheed Soharwardy that would have helped a steady and different Pakistan than a state prone with Security Dilemmas however, at the cost of faith, the pivot of its society and populace. It would have caused a fundamental change in social orientation. (James S. M., 1993).
For a society deeply engrossed in faith, it was not much possible. It is due to this fact that BBC‘s Owen Bennett-Jones who has authored ‗Pakistan: The Eye of the storm’ views Hussain Haqqani account controversial. The fact, which no viable Islamic model has ever been given by the Islamic political parties of Pakistan, has resulted in misinterpretations and delusions about Shariah. This lapse has resulted in societal polarization and militancy. Iran can be a fair model that has pragmatically co-opted provisions of Islamic Shariah according to the contemporary adjustments in entire Islamic history that has lesser internal tension between seculars and rightist factions. Iran could do it possibly; due to its natural national cohesion to withstand the pressure of foreign adversaries despite its severe and vocal opposition to the Western world and US in particular. Pakistan could not achieve this mark due to diversified social composition and lack of internal cohesiveness. In the case of Iran; she worked with full compliments under an Islamic state that could sustain a 8 years‘ war with Iraq and the whole brunt of Western and US military power and political pressures could not soften its resolve on fundamental Islamic ideology. Iranian model establishes national cohesiveness, a major internal factor to tackle Security Dilemma.
79 Internally the gulf between the elected civil government and military leadership has increased after the civilian government in a security conference presumably asked military leadership while discussing the national security that if a full and a whole-hearted anti-terrorism campaign is not launched, Pakistan is likely to be internationally isolated. Although this was denied after it went public and published through a leak not owned by anyone but which is believed generally true by all concerned circles and public in general. Army reacted to this security meeting and issued this statement after a Corps Commanders‘ conference where it was reviewed as, "Feeding of false and fabricated story of an important security meeting held at PM House and viewed it as breach of national security." (Dawn, 2016) The civil military relations seem to have gone further to a new low after this bitterness. This kind of disagreement is not good omen for Pakistan international relations and has increased Pakistan‘s vulnerability as civil-military leadership cannot cohesively respond.
3.16: NATO Incursion and Drone Strikes in FATA
The active NATO military incursions in Pakistani territory are one of the major breaches of Pakistani national security. In a covert deal with US, Pakistan consented to eliminate certain anti-state elements that brazenly challenged government‘s writ and became a nuisance. Pakistan on her side tried to calibrate drone strikes thinking it would be of some gain if carried out on its priority. CIA could not keep pace with Pakistan‘s internal security imperatives due to obvious reasons of their own; it extended drone operations in FATA beyond Pakistani military preferences and what they guessed on their screens as threat. Their guess was not that accurate on most of times and resulted in killing a lot of innocent people that created a worldwide uproar with Pakistan‘s own people‘s discontent. This covert drone deal that gave space to US drones operations in Pakistan started with the first shooting of a terrorist nuisance, Nek Muhammad in Waziristan on 18 June, 2004. It was consented and presumably directed by Pakistan and justified the rest of all the drone shoots that followed after the first amicable instance where Pakistan needed it as well to eliminate menace of a Taliban leader connected to Afghan Taliban and many other resistance or terrorist groups. Pakistan became frustrated with the nuisance of Nek Muhammad and sought CIA help to eliminate him. (Shahzad, 2004). Pakistan‘s government kept the drone deal ambiguous. Pakistan owned the killing of Nek Muhammad directly. In the same while military operations
80 were decided in Waziristan with the first time army entering into tribal areas after 1947 when founding father of Pakistan Muhammad Ali Jinnah ordered all the Pakistan forces to vacate it on the eve of Partition and independence. This covert drone deal was escalated by US and became a major weapon used abundantly by US President George W. Bush to President Barak Obama government in ‗War on Terrorism‘ unprecedented in the territories of a sovereign Pakistan. The number of drone strikes increased gradually from low to alarmingly high. The following table will help portray pattern of drone strikes in Pakistan. (Ross A. K., 2014).
Figure 5: Reported Causalities due to US Drone Strikes
Source: (Ross A. , 2014)
It was high number of civilian causalities that exposed the US liberty of Armed Drone Attacks inside Pakistan. Pakistan could not get control over the consented Drone deal due to lesser diplomatic leverage and lack of balance of power. The ambiguous Pakistani consent to allow US using drones had so many lapses, diplomatic and political cavities which made it impossible to believe and to deny the misuse of drone shoots and control over it. The governments following General (r) Pervez Musharraf were rather liberal to consent and continue a freelance drone license that shows a poor sense of security which has further added to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma, In a Wiki leak transcript the then Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gillani was quoted as saying, ―don’t care if they do it as long as they get the right people.We’ll protest in the National Assembly and then ignore it." (Guardian T. , 2010).
81 The apathy shown in this dispatch is reflective of national security comprehension and the influence of a powerful super power and Pakistan‘s dependence impacting her Security Dilemma.
An incident happened on 26th November, 2011 in which a Pakistani military post at 2.5 kilometer distance from Afghan border at Salala, Mohmand Agency, and FATA was deliberately air attacked by NATO planes killing 24 and injuring 13 soldiers. (Childs, 2011) This blatant violation was rather dumped on Pakistan military blaming it for bad coordination which Pakistani military denied but partially agreed the rest of US investigation Report of Salala incident. (ISSPR, 2012). The US operational unit too closer to international border between Afghanistan and Pakistan that was already noted as the same post came under attack from Afghanistan side killing Pakistani soldiers. The US air attack was a confirmation of suspicious operational activity observed by the Pakistani military post at Salala near Pak- Afghan international boundary. Pakistani military personnel present at Salala post retaliated to this NATO incursion which NATO under tacit US approval counter attacked with disproportionate air strikes that shows, it might have pinched the most vulnerable US operational activity near Pakistan. After a perusal to the tone of almost requesting US for an unconditional apology to pacify the popular sentiment internally US settled it with a reluctant sorry with no real sense of remorse shown. US air strike on Pakistani post was almost taken for granted, presuming Pakistan as too weak to actively retaliate in the face of preponderance of US air and military power This was possible in exchange for reopening of NATO logistic route.. (Foxnews, 2012). NATO supply route run thought the heart of Pakistan and was blocked after the Salala incident. NATO military logistics routed through Pakistan entails a potential threat to its national security. The Salala incident was most threatening US act. This has shown the limits of Pakistan security threshold.
3.17: Taliban’s Retaliation and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Since the war on terror was not declared on some newly born terrorists in Afghanistan but the same lot who were motivated to fight on a US Jihad narrative for political objective that remained unchanged for Mujahedeen regrouped as Taliban as a divine cause. Taliban rallied around the same cause of Jihad, this time against US as it ostensibly replaced former USSRas
82 the new occupier of their lands. The Islamic resistance factions represented fighters from all over the Muslim world assimilated with Afghanistan tribal culture. Pakistan was affected due to this new anti-Terrorism drive as the Pakistani faction including the Punjabi Taliban considered the state policy shift an action against them and considered Pakistan part of the NATO designs. After the 2004 when Pakistan Army moved in tribal area for anti-Terrorist operation and 2007 after the Lal Masjid operation the number of suicide bombing and terrorist attacks became unprecedented within Pakistan involving Tehreek Taliban Pakistan and its Punjabi affiliates. (Iqbal, 2015)
The concept of Ummah bonded these factions‘ together in any resistance movement with a common narrative. However, this also entailed infighting between these groups when their tribal pulse overcame the religious motivation. These factions undermined boundaries between states and secular-styled Muslim governments that created a linear extension and linked the trouble back home. Pakistan got the biggest shares of such troubles as all Jihad coordinating communities had established their launching pads and bases with the support of US and Pakistan since Afghan Jihad time in Eighties. This made Pakistan object of international concern as it had to deal demands of all those countries from where such elements migrated. Some of these were wanted at home as they threatened their home governments‘ stability; some of these were wanted by the Western governments with US claiming the highest quota on pretext of ‗war on terrorism‘ policy. This created complex decision making as it involved handing over of Pakistan‘s own citizens to foreign nations including Middle Eastern countries. This created an issue of sovereignty and national pride which were not acceptable to conservative and religious cadres of Pakistan and Muslim populace. This resulted in an unpopular and alarming surge of antagonism and hatred against the government and multiplied the security issues. Pakistan Government institutions and forces became a luring target of retaliatory Taliban suicidal attacks and other sabotage activities. Taliban deemed government alliance with US in war on terrorism a hostile action against them that included muted consent of US drone attacks and multiple operations against them.
Taliban emerged under Mullah Muhammad Omar of Kandahar during former Prime Minister of Pakistan Benazir Bhutto‘s government. Since Taliban were students from seminaries or
83 madrasas astride Pak-Afghan border, therefore, they were named as Taliban17. Haqqani network a potent group of Muslim warriors under famous war lord Jalal-ud-Din Haqqani18, enjoyed Pakistani patronage according to US official sources. (Walsh D. , 2012). Pakistan‘s strategic ambition of having a friendly government in Kabul to ensure a safe backyard, in case India threatens it from the eastern fronts is widely termed as ‗strategic depth‘. Keeping a political liaison with influential faction was part of Pakistan strategy to achieve that objective.
Pakistan did not grasp the nature and peculiarities of Afghan factions that added to her Security Dilemma. Pakistan invested in Gulbadin Hikmatyar who did not have a grass root support in Afghanistan and especially with Northern alliance commander Ahmad Shah Masood. There were incidents reported where both factions killed followers of each other thought they fought together against former USS.R. (Brigadier Muhammad Yousaf, 1992)19 Northern factions were totally alienated by Pakistan. This faulty and imbalanced political liaison of Pakistan resulted in strategic disequilibrium. This North South rivalry in Afghanistan factored in the fall of Taliban with the help of Northern alliances and covert support of USA to exact a regime change in Afghanistan.
The population ratio should have been a strategic consideration for Pakistan‘s support to Afghan factions. Jalal-Ud-Din-Haqqani restricted to the South Western corner of Afghanistan, proved of some utility but without any strategic advantage. Haqqani group rather proved another security liability as US demanded action against Haqqani group in North Waziristan, FATA. US extended use of armed drone attacks against Haqqani network and others anti US resistance groups.
The effects of such attacks resulted in retaliatory suicide bombing in Pakistani urban areas and against Pakistan military targets. There were no such incidents or sabotage activities reported before US intrusion in Afghanistan and against Pakistan Army; before it entered FATA in 2004. It was not readily possible for Pakistan to abandoned Taliban, perusing a local policy of strategic depth which however; was altered under pressure from USA.
17 Taliban is plural of Talib, mean Student. 18 The leader of Zadran tribe in Khost district of Afghanistan 19 The book was originally written in English by Brigadier Muhammad Yousaf and Major Mark Adkin by the name ‗Bear Trap‘
84 Figure 6: Afghan Ethnic Groups and Their Representation in Government
.
Source: Brookings, 2013
3.18: Pakistan’s Nuclear Capability
Pakistan is estimated to have about 120 nuclear warheads. According to a report in ‗The Diplomat’ Pakistan is capable of producing 20 nuclear warheads annually. That makes Pakistan the third biggest Nuke pile state. The report, co-authored by two scholars of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Stimson Center, notes that, ―Islamabad is successfully competing with and likely outperforming – New Delhi in the build-up of its nuclear arsenal.‖ (Gady, 2015).
The projection of this haunting nuclear scenario is being used; portraying Pakistan as an unreliable and pariah state whose nukes could be stolen by Taliban easily. These purposeful stories through media were aimed at creating caution and alarm in the international political circles and thus are harbinger of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma, to make a strategic case to dismantle Pakistan‘s nuclear program. One of USA‘s vital interest is, ―Prevent, deter and reduce the threat of nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons attacks on the United States or its military forces abroad.‖ (Graham.T. Allison, 2000). This element of US national interest can be politically crafted to have a serious security implication for Pakistan.
The Commission on American National interest lays down responsibility to guard against any such threat to one of its allies. That puts a restraint on Pakistan over maintaining its
85 nuclear capability. This is reflected in the Commission report that covers Pakistan‘s nuclear status and the concerns as following:
―While Pakistan is focused predominantly on the threat posed by India, it is is reportedly also concerned by the potential for the United States to launch a military operation to seize or disarm Pakistani nuclear weapons…Pakistan‘s sensitivity to such a disarming operation was heightened by the 2011 Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden because it revealed Pakistani vulnerabilities and highlighted the willingness of the United States to take unilateral military action on Pakistani soil‖ (Koblentz, November,2014, p.18).
This long term uncertainty makes a factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
3.19: Conclusion
The political discontent of smaller provinces can create a bigger Security Threat for Pakistan integrity. Pakistan is a diversified society where communal sensibility must be cared for as this can lead to a sense of injustice, inequality and deprivation. There are facts and some intriguing to project these feeling which must be guarded firmly. The internal discontent can be exploited by foreign intriguing power therefore delicate social divisions of Pakistan should be managed in a judicious and fair political way. Civil military relation must improve in Pakistan for a cohesive threat response and consensual policy making with full political and bureaucratic input. Pakistan nuclear programme makes a factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma besides its mega strategic project CPEC at Gwadar, Baluchistan. Pakistan needs to have a strict check on the foreign ingress and locals working with foreign funding and support. Media need fair scrutiny that must not encroach on freedom of speech but should cater to check negative propaganda against the state and its ideology. The provincial autonomy should be granted with judicious sharing of national resources and its provincial control can help overcome Security Dilemma of Pakistan as it would result in national cohesion.
86 CHAPTER-4
PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA: EXTERNAL FACTORS
4.1: Introduction
This chapter investigates influence of the external factors on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. There is a history to the making of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The historical to modern political era and in present time the neo- liberal and neo- Realist political environment have all along been in conflict with comparative-conservative social construct of Pakistan. In this part Pakistan‘s Geostrategic status, historical background and legacy, modern strategic and political cultures, dispute with India, Afghanistan affairs, irredentist and terrorism issues, and their corollaries are conflated to correlate as factors of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
The primary external factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is its conflict with India on the status of Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan joined Western alliance against Indian military threat. The issue of Jammu and Kashmir has drifted Pakistan to almost all the threats that she has confronted so far and is major factor of its Security Dilemma. The regional confrontation has pushed both Pakistan and India in a negative strategic competition which has made the both dependent on foreign powers and regional allies. These foreign and regional race of alliances against each other has invited more security threats and compromises at the cost of their own interests.
Pakistan and India seek foreign support and instead of mutually benefitting from a natural infrastructure available in neighboring Pakistan make long detours through other lesser viable resources of other countries that cost them more. India and Pakistan can save a lot if they share their own resources facilitate each other trade routes and spend less on their militaries and more to alleviate poverty and to spend on development of basic infrastructure. ―India has overtaken Saudi Arabia and Russia to become the fourth-largest spender on defense in the world. If the pound continues to weaken, India will spend more on defense than the U.K. by 2018, according to IHS Jane's‖ (NDTV, 2016). This ranks India number 4 in the world defense spending in 2016. India spends $ 51.3 billion in 2015 that was more than 0.4% from the previous year and further planned to increase it to 0.8% in 2016 that is
87 biggest spending after US, China and Russia. At the same time Pakistan spends $9.5 billion in 2015 up from $8.4 billion in 2015 on defense expenditure reported dawn newspaper quoting ‗Stockholm International Peace Research Institute‘, (sipri). (Dawn, 2016) . India is world‘s largest Arms importer. (thehindu, 2016). That shows how much they loose on spending on defense that result not in peace but more security threats. Pakistan faces a state of Security Dilemma, due to this amrs race as it shows far less comparative defense spending. The huge defense spending will keep pushing both India and Pakistan to spend more. This kind of arms‘ race has already created Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Figure 7: The share of GDP per capita world military expenditure
Source: Sipri20
When Pakistan came into being; the world was in process of formulation of a new international order. The people of the Subcontinent were focused on Independence as Britain promised them freedom after the war ended. Crips Mission to India in 1942 visited with this
20 Stockholm International Research Institute.
88 aim, ―Cripps delivered a promise of a new constitution for India with an electoral body (effectively offering independence after the war), along with immediate participation in the viceroy's Executive Council‖ (BBC, 2014). It was not a simple matter of freedom as the world was to be formed by the powerful international actors in a manner that would not harm their interest and would drive the world to act under the new order in making. ―The British decision to grant independence to India arose primarily out of necessity‖ (Pierce, 2009). The Western nations saw the world through the lens of their own Security Dilemma that climaxed with the advent and end of the Second World War. West was conscious of the miseries of war that intermingled with sub continental issue where British could no more sustain it rule over India at the cost of deteriorated economy back home.
America was an emerging power after it came out of self-imposed isolation and saw Europe with paralyzed economy after the Second World War. USA considered Europe; its first line of defense in international sphere. To erode threatening regional powers‘ mass, the mandated regions allotted to allied powers were politically crafted and cut to size in smaller geographical entities. Resultantly a surge of freedom movements unleashed to become nation states. The international regimes and Institutions were created as political controlling mechanism: spear headed by powers that all held some kind of power sharing in matters of international affairs like permanent status in the Security Council and the power of veto to block any resolution. Such was international setting at time of the creation of Pakistan.
The major external factors which impacted Pakistan‘s Security Dilemmas are as following:
Pakistan‘s Geostrategic Location: A Major Factor of Security Dilemma Pakistan India confrontation on the Issue of Jammu and Kashmir and its corollaries impacting Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma Historical Factors: Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma International Political Realities and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma Afghanistan Instability and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma Pakistan‘s International Relation impacting on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma Pakistan US Relations and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma The legacy of Jihad movements of Eighties and Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma
89 4.2: Pakistan’s Geostrategic Location: A Major Factor of Security Dilemma
Geographical location plays a vital role in determining the security of a state owing to external effects. The strategic importance lures powerful nations to play it for their own interest. The area where Pakistan is situated is a historical security zone and has been a regional gateway to Subcontinent for the invaders coming from the North. From seventeenth century onwards the events reversed the course and in changed geopolitical setting British India confronted Russia to block any further invasion from the up North. In present times Pakistan geostrategic location facilitates a commercial approach for the Central Asia and Middle East‘s energy resources and their considerably big commercial market. The same area was contested by British and Russia (later Soviet Union) due to their respective geopolitical interests. Area down the Khyber Pass till the confluence of Kabul and Indus was annexed with British India by signing of Durand Line Treaty by Amir Abdul Rahman Khan of Afghanistan on 12 November, 1893 (Khyber, 2017).
Figure 8: Durand Line
Source: Global Security
After the independence people of North West Frontier voted in a referendum to be part of Pakistan. (Miller, 1977). This legacy of the British Indian Empire persists till today and is one of the major factors of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
90 The vacuum left over by British Raj was filled by United State of America‘s show of preponderance in the world affairs. ‗Defense analysis in the United States had begun to recognize the value of Pakistan as early as March 1949‘ (Sattar, 2007, p. 41). After the cold war with former USSR ended, the United States and subsequent coalition of US and the West emerged in new international political formations. Pakistan became a linchpin in all the international foreign policy issues of the West. The present (as of 2017) Pakistan ambassador to United Nations (UN) has elaborated this fact in her article in ‘The Sunday Guardian’
―The tyranny of geography has imposed heavy burdens on Pakistan. It has influenced its security thinking and calculus, as well as posed enduring security dilemmas. The troubled history and colonial heritage of contested borders on both its eastern and western frontiers has meant that over the years, Pakistan has tried to avoid being confronted by a two-front situation — tensions with India on its eastern border and Afghanistan on its western one. The present fraught situation on the Line of Control and firings across the working boundary at a time when the Pakistan army is engaged on the western front and battling militancy within its borders is only the latest example of this security dilemma.‖ (Lodhi, 2017).
Pakistan shares 2430 KM long border with Afghanistan. Pakistan shares the outfalls of most of what happens in Afghanistan, hotspot for most of troubles. Afghanistan is a landlocked country and not a fully formed state as it lacks taxonomy. Afghanistan‘s internal stability is relevant to its tribal society than the state influence. Afghan police and official security forces are necessary to maintain law and order and guard its national security. Tribal culture overwhelms Afghanistan‘s total mass. Afghanistan‘s territorial security has traditionally been the obligation of its people as a tribal norm due to not so fully organized conventional armed forces.
The Afghanistan Police structure also has negligible authority beyond urban areas that mostly counts Kabul. Pakistan shares its North Western boundaries with South Eastern Afghanistan, where Pakistan and Afghanistan tribes, predominantly ethnically Pashtuns are populated astride the Pakistan and Afghanistan border. It makes Pakistan share what goes on in Afghanistan, which has mostly been chaos and political disorder. According to a fresh ‗Report‘ released by Special Inspectorate General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), a force of 320,000 strong force of Afghans raised by US funding. (SIGAR, 2017).
91 Henry A. Kissinger, an International Relations veteran has deliberated on Pakistan‘s strategic importance in a detailed article, ‗Two Paths in Pakistan: Security and Democracy,21‘ published in Washington Post and Tribune Media It starts with strategic importance of Pakistan, ―A state occupying strategic terrain but incapable of maintaining control over it could turn into the wildcard of international diplomacy.‖ (Kissinger H. , 2008). This does not belie the facts on ground as Pakistan has not been able to devise a sound foreign policy to play its strategically situated status. Pakistan has not used its strategic importance to cash it for resolution of crucial security issue for the resolution of Kashmir problem. All Pakistan‘s security problems are tied with this crucial issue
The British built disused railway line abruptly ends on Pakistani side of Durand line near Torkham, Khyber Agency (FATA). It shows metaphorically the political threshold of historical foreign influence and a divide that symbolizes troubles continuum. The history of Afghanistan shows that it has been resisting all along and yet not independent as while fighting one power it relied on the other to depend for support to continue resistance in exchange for grants and subsidies. (Dupree, 1997)
The territorial threat was remolded in the frame of new ideological conflict between Western Capitalist order and Communism with the advent of the Bolshevik revolution of October, 1917 in Russia. The times from 1917 to 1945 saw developments which fostered the threat perceptions of the Europe and the United State resulting in cold war. Pakistan became Western ally and its people divided on such a national policy. Eastern Europe was militarily impacted due to this power politics that changed map of Europe dividing it in Communist and Capitalist blocks and formations comprising of newly emerging nations‘ state aligning with either of the blocks owing to their inevitable dependence on them for economic, political and military reasons. US became active in the international arena. Emergence of Pakistan on map of the world with historical legacy to the regional issues changed nothing but perceptional, ideological and conceptual shifts with consistent denominator of international power politics.
21 Dr. Henry Kissinger article was published in more than one publication. Here one standard reference is being given to avoid repetition for the ease of readers for the authenticity of the article‘s content. http://databank.isranet.org/article.asp?article=40474 Retrieved on 2/1/2017
92 The period when US fully appeared on international scene after the World Wars (early to mid-20th century) till USS.R.‘s military intrusion in Afghanistan in April, 1979 seems a time of respite and refitting for the NATO nations, Sur Inqilab‘ or Red Communist Revolution of April, 1979 with help of its communist political clients in Afghanistan created a radical situation for US to intervene covertly. The military intrusion was portrayed by US as occupation of Afghanistan by former USSRPakistan owing to its geographical location became important actor and ally of the West. By doing so it was now prone to security fallout consequent to confrontation between United States of America and former Soviet Union. Pakistan made a nexus with the West and became part of their crafted theme of Jihad to alleviate internal discontent which would have been grudged had it been devoid of a cause identified with faith. The bait of Jihad, a US policy tool to further Western interest was luring and readily acceptable to the extreme right religious cadres. Call of West-crafted theme of Jihad was commensurate to the Pakistan and Afghanistan‘s Pashtun tribal culture.
After Soviet Union withdrawal from Afghanistan it dawned upon religious cadres that their misguided sense of fighting atheist and secular USSRwas in fact a proxy war. They might have known this fact but as it converged to define a common enemy therefore; it didn‘t bother them much and worked tactically well. At the end of Afghan Jihad, US replaced USS.R to sway on Afghanistan‘s affairs and a cause continuum for the Mujahedeen.
The Soviet withdrawal followed by Mujahedeen infighting and a short Taliban stint in Kabul was swept with event of 11 September, 2001. Mujahedeen disintegrated as rival factions against each other and a common faction of mostly religious seminaries reemerged, regrouped as Taliban (Laub, 2014). It gave impetus to a future confrontation cycle more lethal than the previous decade of Jihad that proved to be the end of beginning. Taliban primary aim was imposition of ‗Shariah’ Law and primary became to fight US who deemed their rule as oppressive.
Realist perspective is adept and flexible to changed political situations. The new US policy changed the strategic formations. US declared Taliban affiliate of Al Qaeda whom it now declared ‗Terrorists after the incident of September 11, 2001. Islamic resistance movements remained with fixed religious perspectives. Confrontation with dialectic perspectives became another round of Jihad for Taliban and for US the War on Terrorism. Pakistan faced a
93 predicament, double trapped between a pledge as a NATO ally and with a strategic ambition to court some of the Taliban factions whom she harbored to install in Kabul as friendly government but whom NATO didn‘t desire to spare to fight.
Aligning herself with US was Pakistan‘s first foreign affairs initiative. US; is apt to change its strategic posture frequently; suiting to the situation and her interest and without regard to any permanent political pledges. Assessing the situation realistically and not with political idealism; makes a core element of ‗Realist‘ approach, the major guiding theory in the making of US foreign policy. Henry Kissinger concludes it in these words, ―The idea that we have to choose between realism and idealism is a ―false dichotomy,‖ one must begin with an assessment of the situation as it is; if one cannot do that, one cannot make any predictions of the future‖ (DeMichle, 2016).
Pakistan has experienced this kind of US behavior after the so-called Afghan Jihad when American could not concede to the Pakistani terms of installing a pro-Pakistan government as a fruit of its efforts as US ally in defeating one of the biggest world powers. It was not possible after US abandoned its religious proxies who regrouped later as Taliban. It rather threw Pakistan in a chaotic imbroglio from which it has not been able to relieve and recover itself to date. The Afghan Jihad outfall became Pakistan worst security nightmare and a major cause of her Security dilemma. (Yousaf, 1992)
The questions arise, was Pakistan sticking to some cause or perspective its people believed in while supporting policies of US-sponsored Jihad in Afghanistan and against USSRor it was overawed with US dictate that made it change its stance expediently? If yes, was this the major factor of its Security Dilemma? Was it correct to go and fight one occupier and support other? What national interest Pakistan realized by this proxy game? Does that show Pakistan‘s whimsical and capricious foreign policy without many national interest base and international relation? The study would investigate in detail to find answer to these questions beside other external causes that caused her Security dilemma.
94 4.3: Historical Factors: Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
4.3.1: British Legacy Pakistan‘s is situated in the part of Subcontinent which comprised mostly British garrisons as a result of British forward policy of that time to countervail Russia advances toward British India. The old legacy from the time of British rule was a phenomenon hard to die very soon. Pakistan inherited the legacy of Afghanistan‘s prejudices by replacing British India. Pakistan was comparatively a different variant that never intended to occupy Afghanistan or to subjugate it. Pakistan strategically persuaded however; a friendly government in Kabul. Omar Sharif, director of American institute of Afghanistan Studies puts this fact in these words:
―Pakistan used to look toward Afghanistan, at least from 1947 till 1979 as a potential friend in the region. Realizing that landlocked Afghanistan was economically depended on Pakistan, and given that both countries are Muslim, Pakistan assumed that Afghanistan will be a natural friend, give up its territorial claims and maintain friendly, cordial and mutually beneficial relation.‖ (Sharifi, 2009)
North-West Frontier, previously part of Afghanistan was ceded to British India through a treaty with Afghanistan Amir Abdul Rehman Khan on 12 November, 1893 after Durand Agreement was signed on behalf of British government. (Charles, 1977). The North-West Frontier became a de jure and de facto British possession after this treaty.
The status of international border previously known as Durand line is occasionally contested by the government of Afghanistan depending on level of intrigue and opportunity. This claim is crafted on the political narrative that agreement was imposed on Afghanistan as a weaker partner. Owing to this underlying issue Pakistan has always sought a friendly government in Afghanistan to avoid any escalation on this issue. This dispute is analyzed by Omar Sharifi an Afghan analyst and director of American Institute of Afghan Studies:
―Great Game‖ between two major colonial powers, Russia and Britain, remained in the heart of Afghan government‘s strategic thinking toward Pakistan. From the time when the Afghan government signed the treaty in 1893, till 1947, it was reaffirmed three more times by successive Afghan governments. After the end of British rule in the Subcontinent, the Afghan government argued that the treaty is no longer legitimate and lay claims to all land between the border the Indus River. On the other hand, because Pakistan contends that Pashtuns voted for Pakistan in the 1947 referendum in
95 Peshawar, it, therefore, refutes validity of Afghanistan‘s claim. On the other hand, Pakistan claimed that Afghanistan concern for the unity of Pashtuns is not genuine because it does not include the Pashtuns on its side of the line...‖ (Sharifi, 2009)
4.3.2: Great Game to Cold War The expansionist designs of Russia were opposed by British Empire coded in history as ‗Great Game‘ (Fromkin, 1980). Cold War emerged as a modern version of the same with the end of the British Empire and emergence of its new variant USA. America had come out of its international political isolation, haunted by a weaker Europe after the World War-II. On the other hand Russian empire also ended. Bolsheviks with their communist ideology with an ambition to spread it globally threatened the war-torn West. US was the biggest remainder not much affected by the world war and the only power that could check the perceived threat from communist ideology. The balance of power in Europe needed equilibrium. Soviet Union started exerting to replace capitalist system with communism. This created a new round of conflict now between Soviet Union and USA. Since both were powerful states and later became nuclear power too. Their powerful military and nuclear status restrained them to engage in a full scale war.
Both Soviet Union and USA undermined each other‘s economic systems and ideologies. Both resorted to covert strategies to avoid a full scale war through intelligence covert actions, proxy wars, and formation of respective military blocks. This is what came to be known as the cold war. Russia exerted on the international scene in the wake of a new communist ideology to lure nation states to her camp. Same was done by USA and it was through this strategy that Pakistan became part of Western security alliances formed against USSR. The relevance of cold war to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is crucial phase of its history as this brought Pakistan to the brink of disintegration and Security Dilemma. After General George Marshal, the 50th US Secretary of State under President Harry S. Truman, visited Europe in the wake of post-World War II, he was shocked to see its conditions. He reported to President Truman that it would turn up communist if not helped by United States. President Truman had already pledged supporting the ‗free world‘ set in his own ‗Truman doctrine‘. The Marshal plan economically reinstated Europe to withstand the communist threat with $13 billion against $22 billion, requested by European nations. (Historian, 2017)
96 Prior to the Marshal plan Cominform (The Communist Information Bureau) had already been founded in 1947. This included Eastern Europe countries, Italy and France in a meeting of leading communists held in Poland, under the leadership of Soviet Union. This laid the foundation of the Communist bloc. The ‗Cominform‘ members were disallowed by Stalin to take part in Marshal Plan (BBC, 2017). This was the initial formation of capitalist and communist blocs.
George Kennan, a relatively junior US diplomat‘s famous ‗Long Telegram‘ sent from US Embassy in former Soviet Union on 24th February 1946, detailing Soviet Union‘s expansionist designs and its existing threat to Capitalist bloc. This telegram followed by an article by the same diplomat, George Kennan (July, 1946) set the conceptual framework of US Foreign Policy for the containment of communist ideology that set the stage for cold war. The creation of Pakistan coincided with the start of the cold war. Both almost happened at the same time. The salient of the long telegram setting the agenda for the cold war were as following:
Soviet Union is in a position to threaten the global balance of power Featured: Analysis of Soviet, US and British capabilities and world‘s key power centers Focus on narrow group interest, potential for conflict, balance of power, an in-depth and insightful analysis of domestic Soviet Union politics. ‗ (Kennan, 1946)
4.3.3: Post-Cold War International Scenario
The US and European concept of security against communism came to an end with the fall of Soviet Union. All the security apparatus US and the Europe built was to protect Western Europe from communist threat. The creation of NATO was a concept of common security and entailed almost all the elements of security common to all the members of alliance. Pakistan and countries out of European regions had only one thing in common, the international political support of Europe, and its aid and development assistance in exchange for opposition and complimentary military assistance to provide military bases to major antagonists bases and forward outpost against communism. After the cold war the aim of US security concept remained intact as it was not just issue based but was extendable to keep the
97 US security posture projected and dominant to safeguard its hegemony. ―Jason W.Davidson of University of Marry Washington argues …United States believed that with its position of great power came the responsibility to lead in the provision of international order.‖ (Davidson, 2009). US policy affected Pakistan as it shared the outfall of US military actions with zero sum gains.
Pakistan‘s conflict within regional framework was issue based. Pakistan‘s conflict with India on Kashmir was the only depute central to its security policy. It can be safely assumed that with the settlement of Kashmir issue India and Pakistan will have no major issue left and will advance to cooperate in so many ways. This would increase Pakistan‘s diplomatic scope and lessen diplomatic dependence like compulsion of joining alliances. Alliances augment defense of states facing common and direct threat but at the same time alliances pose threat to the same proportion to all its members. (Khan A. M., 1998)
Foreign policy is dependent on quality of national leadership who thrive on the fundamentals of national power. Ideals of democracy and economic independence are lofty and much wanting in case of Pakistan. Democracy needs institutional strength which was still in making with the exception of military which was best organized amongst all being a disciplined body with intact hierarchy by default. It was by default that military had to interfere time and again due to lack of institutions‘ strength in Pakistan. Since military was the only institution with comparative edge therefore, it embraced all the fixings with regard to Pakistan‘s political and foreign policy matters that range from Kashmir issue to be ally in the war on terrorism. Anatol Lieven, prominent International Relations scholar wrote quoting an interview with Nawabzada Aurangzeb Jogezai, a pathan tribal chieftain in Baluchistan,
―In Pakistan the only institution works-the army…the politicians themselves call for this [military intervention] when they have made enough of a mess of things or want to get their rivals out of power…now they say they are for democracy and against military rule, but in 1999 Benazir distributed sweets [ a traditional sign of rejoicing and congratulation] when the army overthrew Nawaz Sharif.‖ (Anatol, 2011, p. 164).
4.3.4: Muslims: In the Arena of Western Rivalry If John Kennan‘s long telegram was the main driver of the containment of Communism the Tony Blair‘s speech is a strong direction for the full focus on Islamic world. ―…Blair has
98 warned Western leaders they must put aside their differences with Russia over Ukraine to focus on the threat of Islamic extremism.‖ (BBC, UK politics, 2014). It advises a dedicated approach to fight what they perceive and codify as threat from Islamists. Since Muslim world is devoid of power and means to develop therefore; it will be asymmetrical and long lasting struggle to stabilize the world peace as it will remain an open ended war. It will also be unpredictable as it remains pregnant with unintended consequences as Muslim world if not industrially powerful is most populated controls approaches and routes to important energy resources and world markets. In case these Muslim regions remain unstable and wary, it will not help bring peace, Pakistan right on the very onset of its inception, had been diplomatically engaged wrong options, oblivious of unintended consequences these yielded. But with the passage of time the threats it confronts will be increasing. Its major element of foreign policy was cashing on Europeans and Western fears of communism owing to it legacy of Western orientation.
Abdul Sattar a foreign office veteran is of the view that, Pakistan‘s overtures to Western support for security and development has a trace in pre partition days, courting of the UK and later US. Muhammad Ali Jinnah assured the visiting US charged affairs in New Delhi in May, 1947 that, ―Pakistan‘s foreign policy would be oriented towards the Muslim countries of the Middle East, and they ‗would stand together against possible Russian aggression and would look to the US for assistance.‘ (Sattar, 2007, p. 35).
US had less consideration for Pakistan and South Asia but however, this compelling bait worked and Pakistan was able to benefit for its development and military organization. UK was not forthcoming in spite of the fact that it was first priority for Pakistan to rely on as it had an easy access and history of interaction with the British. Both UK and US were averse to the idea of a separate state in the name of religion. British were especially antithetical about Muslim league approach to divide India which however was a response to Congress unaccommodating of Muslim demands. It considered Muslim League a reactionary party and Congress a progressive one. Pakistan was ignored by US when its Indian counterpart was extended an invitation to visit USA in May, 1950. However, an invitation from Soviet Union made it possible to counter balance and render an invitation to Pakistani Prime Minister too to visit USA. This resulted in ostensibly prompt switching from accepting it from the first
99 invitee, Joseph Stalin and rather accepting the belated one from USA. This was probably due to incompatibility in Pakistan and Russians political stance as in general the communism was antithetical to the ideology of Islam. India kept a balance and approached both with the stance of neutrality to avoid proactive participation in any of the blocs ostensibly. India cultivated by being non-aligned options open to it and thus avoided a direct stakeholder in confrontation of two big powers the USA and Soviet Union that ensured its security better and both supported without any cost to its security. Pakistan however relied on total Western support and leaned too readily and deliberately towards Europe and USA especially, oblivious to future nightmare scenarios and Security Dilemma.(ibid)
The package included Pakistan‘s reluctance but final support to USA on Korean War (1950- 53) and its support to South Korea against China and Soviet support to North Korea, support on Suez Canal issue (1956) to British and France invasion in contrast to internal public opinion in the favor of Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser‘s pan Arab policies that aimed at indigenous control over the Canal. This pattern was carried on till the gulf war‘s (2003) and the war on terrorism which fixed Pakistan in double trap of foreign and internal threats to its security as what it strategically considered to align it with was in sharp opposition to what Pakistanis popularly believed. (James M. , 1992,p.21).
What was done is some time part of state wheeling dealing but the point to bring in focus is that it was devoid of any national interest or gain and rather proved a great security liability. There was no bureaucratic scrutiny or input for such deals or political consents and if there was any it was vested in the interest of individual who connived with their political appointer or some factor of external influence. This political idiosyncrasy has been well defined in a study that, ‗…In South East Asia and the greater part of the decolonized world is a tendency to utilize foreign policy to serve a domestic function‘. The study finds fault ‘…As political power in South Asian states has tended to become concentrated increasingly in fewer hands, those on whom the political system tends to pivot exercise a jealous control over such matters‘ it further analyzes its effect on foreign policy making, ‗…it also makes the process unduly cumbersome and protracted as decisions often of minimal import, cannot be made by the official foreign ministry hierarchy but have to wait pleasure of one overburdened individual‘ (Leifer M. , 1977, p. 33)..
100 4.4: Political Concepts in post-9/11 Environment and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
The old concepts of sovereignty, national interest and other intrusive political conceptual framework were defined with strictest possible interpretation in Westphalia by the European communities. The top among such concept that made the base of the treaty was ‗Sovereignty‘. A state was protected from outside intrusion by the sovereign rights. In contemporary global environment these and other connotations have been radically changed due to global power asymmetry. The powerful states are forwarding new interpretations as a world political controlling mechanism. Like France and UK intruded in Libya using R2P shield vide UNSC resolution 1973 authorizing the member states to take necessary action to act in Libya (UN, 2011). This action when compared to Gaza bombing of Israel makes it dubious as people in Libya enjoyed far better welfare than how Gaza is bombed by Israel frequently destroying and smashing the whole infrastructure. Following discusses the major Political concept those are now interpreted in a different and in a way which will in future allow the powerful who hold sway on the forum that approves these intrusive provision to militarily attack other nations. Pakistan can face the same fate as of Libya if it slips in disagreement of the order under the powerful states making War on Terrorism a pretext.
4.4.1: Sovereignty In a landmark ‗agenda for peace‘ report forwarded by Boutros Boutros Ghali in 1992, the former UN Secretary General said, ―The time of absolute and exclusive sovereignty, however, has passed; its theory was never matched by reality. It is the task of leaders of states today to understand this and to find a balance between the need of good internal governance and the requirements of an ever more interdependent world" (Ghali, 1992). New interpretation of sovereignty suggests more intrusive and acceptability of interventionist policies. It expands the political securitizations to attack nations when they fail to align with US world order designs and political preponderance. ―Sovereignty is being reduced in importance and belied in a kind of ‗limited sovereignty‘ is developing…sovereignty has begun to erode. It is under attack from globalization forces, economic and trade liberalization, the changing nature of technology and American hegemony. In some cases
101 these factors has caused state to collapse;22 in others they have given rise to transnational or trans-sovereign problems of refugees, disease, ethnic conflict, drug smuggling, terrorism, violence and civil war23. (Robert J. Jackson, 2006 ).
The ex-US Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff, giving idea of reciprocal sovereignty is that , ―…Each sovereign nation must respect the right of other nations, so that all nations are obliged to contain the external consequences of any security threat emerging within their borders‖ the author suggest further that, ―…And when countries fail to live up to their responsibility, international law should recognize- and indeed authorize-mechanisms that would allow protective action on the part of the world community and if necessary the injured or threatened states‖ the writer then talks of a generational task of evolving a new concept of ‗reciprocal sovereignty‘ with a sweeping disregard as to what constitutes the act of terrorism or to elaborate how people take different approaches to define resistance and terrorism. Chertoff draws principles to set a new security paradigm, ―Implementing international order that advances US security interest will require difficult decisions and sustained work for at least a generation. To begin, the United States and its partners must ground the reciprocal responsibility to contains on three core principles: no subordination, collaborative security, and reciprocal sovereignty.‖ (Chertoff, 2009).
This premise has potential of setting a dangerous trend where chaos in a target state can be circumvented, by a powerful nation to intervene militarily. This would become a law of privileged and powerful international political players only. This interventionist mindset is a critical fault line for the world peace as we see the military interventions in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Libya is lingering for over a decade with no end in sight. Such interventions have further provoked conflict and have proven as a war multiplier. With trillions of dollars budget, the whole NATO forces‘ resource and a huge combat and civilian‘ causality, the military interventions by international community have proven to be a failed concept. Our present internal and international political environment are prone with nationalists and secessionist and ethnic movements. Issues of nuclear proliferation and weapon of mass destruction have become the threatening elements of international power
22Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya are a few examples 23 The example of Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq Palestine are a few examples
102 politick. The Security Dilemma asserts that both weakness and strength in national security can be provocative to other nations. Nations have politicized military interventions through UN resolutions as a legal shield. The assertiveness by the powerful alliances to attack a particular nation has been so much urging that their action bypassed approval even by UNSC.
The NATO authorization of supporting a proxy group in attacking Libya for a regime change with France and UK‘s use of force to enforce a no fly zone substantiates this argument. However, a loose reference to provisions of R2P was made to work in this regard:
‗R2P is often described as an ‗emerging norm‘ in international affairs. But as Noam Chomsky has noted, Japan‘s attack on Manchuria, Mussolini‘s invasion of Ethiopia and Hitler‘s occupation of Czechoslovakia were ‗all accompanied by lofty rhetoric about the solemn responsibility to protect the suffering populations…… A second version of R2P, proposed by the [Gareth] Evans Commission (2001), goes much further. It authorizes ‘regional or sub-regional organizations‘ such as NATO to determine their ‗area of jurisdiction‘ and to act in cases where ‗the Security Council rejects a proposal or fails to deal with it in a reasonable time‘ (Evans, International Commissio on Intervention and State Sovereignty, 2001). Pakistan is prone to all the danger and politick use of R2P and collective security provisions due to the internal political weakness and problems. It has a nationalist movement in the Southern Baluchistan province, a sectarian tension, and its nuclear capability pursuits are ingredients readily available to grind a Security Dilemma to escalate what it is already going through. Pakistan‘s alleged interventionist role in Indian occupied Kashmir through its alleged covertly support of Islamic organizations like Jaishe Muhammad (JeM), Lashkar-e- Taiba, (LeT) and Mujahedeen of mix groups notwithstanding the justification, prove to be a pain in the neck.
The unimaginative policy shortcuts can be a dangerous move in totally transformed modern international political environment. By resorting to such trendy security measures Pakistan will put its national security on peril, if crossed international community‘s tolerance threshold.‘ Britain and America shocked Pakistan and its allies at the 23rd regular session of the United Nations Human Rights Council‘s general debate in Geneva on 7 June, 2013 when the two countries clearly supported nationalist leader Mehran Marri, Baluchistan as Baloch representative to the UN, who spoke against the recent elections and alleged that Pakistan
103 was committing rights abuses in Baluchistan. This is an indicator the way things can be construed or politicked in the present international political environment, leading to dire troubles for Pakistan security. The emerging doctrines and norms of collective security and responsibility to protect also compromise state sovereignty and defies a national government as a single agent to have a total writ over the geography and the its citizens. The nuclear program of Pakistan is under threat to be dismantled, as international powers are exerting to monitor it unusually and intrusively on generalized pretext that non-state actors might lay hands on it. (Washington post, 4 November, 2001, p. A27). A UN resolution 2325 (2016) was adopted to this effect, ―calling for a framework to keep terrorists, other Non-State actors from acquiring Weapons of mass destruction‖ (UNSC, 2016). The concept like R2P can be ‗worked out‘ by International game players to pose Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
The principle of sovereign equality of states is enshrined in Article 2.1 of the UN Charter. ―Article 2 (7) states that the United Nations has no authority to intervene in matters which are within the domestic jurisdiction of any State.‖ (UN, 2016). Westphalia model (1648) of sovereignty has been unhinged in recent times. Westphalia model was exclusive in nature that models a nation state as a single agent surpassing supranational influence. Sovereignty of nations now goes beyond a single state authority and territorial integrity. ―The question of which body was ultimately responsible was increasingly separated from that of which body was allowed competence‖ (Dugard, 1996). Sovereignty is explained now as being ultimately responsible. Sovereignty is not taken as right but responsibility according to the emerging literature that has culminated in an elaborate document, ‗Report of the International Commission on Intervention and State Sovereignty‘, ICISS ( December, 2001). This report expands beyond the Westphalia concept of sovereignty that ended supranational control in internal affairs of a nation state. This notion of sovereignty emits out of nationalism of post- world wars era. It establishes that, ―Thinking of sovereignty as responsibility, in a way that is being increasingly recognized in state practice, has threefold significance. First, it implies that the state authorities are responsible for the functions of protecting the safety and lives of citizens and promotion of their welfare. Secondly, it suggests that national political authorities are responsible to the citizens internally and to the international community through the UN. And thirdly, it means that agents of state are responsible for their actions; that is to say, they are accountable for their acts of commission and omission. The case for
104 thinking of sovereignty in these terms is strengthened by the ever increasing impact of international human rights norms, and the increasing impact in international discourse on the concept of human security.‖ (Evans, 2001) This connotation of sovereignty implies that this is a changed world and every nation is responsible to the global community for their domestic acts. This articulation of sovereignty, though, is wrapped around the core themes of human security and rights but in fact has scope of its exploitation as human nature can‘t be trusted in all cases as interventions in Cambodia by Vietnam or in East Pakistan now Bangladesh, by India, in Libya by UK and France, in Iraq and by USA., on the proven wrong pretext of possessing weapons of mass destruction which were never found by international regimes. Such acts of military interventions by powerful raised questions as these were based on not very sound presumptions and international law, but were carried out on the premise that these constituted humanitarian intervention aimed at preventing genocide, large-scale loss of life or ethnic cleansing.
On the contrary, following world war-II and the holocaust, the United Nations adopted a resolution on December 9, 1948, which stated that "The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to punish." (UNHR, 1948) Clearly, the massacres in Rwanda constituted genocide, so why didn't the world step in to stop it? These models create an ambiguity and a sense of Security Dilemma where nations feel threatened under emerging interventionist provisions.
These can jeopardize security of a nation on an invented pretext where a powerful nation creates such a chaos in a target state and use it to fit the provisions of military intervention that becomes an instrument of usurpation than a concern for human security. Like it is famously reported that in Libya it was Bernard Henry Levy who crafted such an intervention, perused French president Sarkozi to convince NATO members, UK and US for Libyan intervention to eliminate Libyan Col Muamar Qadafi and degrade the whole Libyan state on the pretext of no so visible human rights there. ―Qaddafi is the one who planned and waged war. I only supported the NATO intervention,‖ he in the very next reply to Al Arabia tv show said, ―The Libyan issue was not a priority for the French people, but [French president] Sarkozy wanted to do it because it was a fair war... Obama was in the back seat and Cameron
105 was hesitant, while Sarkozy was determined and led the initiative.‖ (Arabiya, 2012). That show how such international interventions are planned on political expediency. Pakistan has the shades of same vulnerability owning to its international political and strategic stature that might engulf it in such political intriguing on the Libya, Afghanistan, and Iraq or even like Syria model.
Pakistan is a playground of great gamers owing to its strategic locations and approaches to rich market, mineral and energy regions of Central Asia to Middle East. Its position as ideological ‗Time Square‘ compounds its predicaments. Pakistan‘s strategic position is a lure for the international power politics. Pakistan has a legacy of intriguing and foreign influences in its internal affairs which are ever increasing in present time. The tension between its interest and international demands and obligations are dichotomous thus prone to foreign pressures and security threats.
The Security Dilemma has already entered in its critical phase with drones having an implicit license to fly over Pakistani territories and bomb its people, killing few perceived terrorists and many innocent civilians. This is unprecedented in nations‘ history to have a covert understanding; that too under a military regime in Pakistan to allow foreign military intervention and creating a free bombing zone in a sovereign state. This kind of strategy can‘t be thought of; under normal circumstances as a tactical move even. This emerging interventionist model is an indicator of a mounting Security Dilemma as it would encourage from consented to forced foreign intrusion. Pakistan will be seriously vulnerable to this changing security paradigm that will make its Security Dilemma increasingly critical. Intervention has been traditionally defined as a deliberate incursion into a state without its consent by some outside agency, in order to change functioning, policies and goals of its governments and achieve effects which favored the intervening agency (Vincent, 1974). Pakistan‘s political and military state order should be read under this implication for most of intended international interventionist executions. Good cause of intervention was aimed at imposing conditions on new states after the First World War to guarantee the rights of minorities (Claude 1955). but state like USA deem it an exceptional right to intervene militarily as expressed by USA President Barak Obama on 10 September, 2013 in a statement on Syrian crisis (2013). President Barak Obama, in his speech to the American
106 nation, made a case for military strikes on Syria in response to an alleged chemical attack on its Sunni populated area said, ―United States‘ policy is 'what makes America different. It‘s what makes us exceptional.‖ Russian President Vladimir Putin promptly rebutted him in an op-ed piece that was published in the New York Times on 12th September, 2013 saying, ―It is extremely dangerous to encourage people to see them as exceptional, whatever the motivation," Putin continued. ―There are big countries and small countries, rich and poor, those with long democratic traditions and those still finding their way to democracy. Their policies differ, too. We are all different, but when we ask for the Lord‘s blessings, we must not forget that God created us equal." (Putin, 2013). This represents a tension between the theory of intervention and the dangers of its wrong implications. Russian response was in part to defend its interest that converged with wider interest of the Middle East particularly vital for Syrian civil war crisis. Pakistan lacks this kind of complimentary international or regional support that can ward off effects of any such interventionist approach and thus is prone to negative outfall of this kind of interventionist notion that has the potential of causing it a Security Dilemma like Libya and Syria.
4.4.2: National Interest National interest is an ambition to achieve national goals and objectives that make raison d’état, a French expression for the reason of the state or national interest. Interest has an isolationist character and is exclusive to a particular nation‘s necessities. Niccolò di Bernardo dei Machiavelli, (1469-1527) is deemed to be the first proponent of national interest. Joseph S. Nye, Jr, a prominent American political scientist wrote in ‗Foreign Affairs’ that, ―The national interest" is a slippery concept, used to describe as well as prescribe foreign policy.‖ (Joseh S. Nye, 1999). Why we discuss this concept in this study is pertinent to its implication on Pakistan‘s national security. According to Kenneth Waltz, ―The requirements of state action are imposed by circumstances in which all states exist‖ It drives us to analyze, can a comparatively smaller and weaker nation like Pakistan preserve its national interest while working in an international political system where powerful states with a bigger appetite seek their own national interest? This is what makes one of the elements of Security Dilemma for Pakistan as it is trapped between the NATO nations‘ regional national interest and the domestic idealist influences that are deemed an antithesis to NATO nations‘ interests. This has created internal conditions of civil war, insurgency, terrorism and external skepticism
107 prompting fear of military threats and interventions aiming at controlling Pakistan‘s foreign policy. Pakistan‘s probable strategy to contain blow back and retaliation of estranged resisting Islamic groups with a calibrated role in war on terrorism has the potential of being viewed as deliberate reluctance, and can become a major cause of Security Dilemma.
4.4.3: Legitimacy The Western strategic trending is based on dialectical legitimacy, where they need to act with force. What might be framed as legitimate, can be used as justification in international law. But in modern political world the powerful has always been able to craft legitimacy, manipulating through regimes, influenced or installed by foreign powers. One can draw a clear comparison in support of this argument as all issues relating to Middle East, Pakistan and Palestine fail to get priority i.e. Kashmir issue where NATO nations military actions are approved in shortest possible time and executed in days like the Gulf war and with regard to Iraq, where US got UN sanction under the pretext of wrongly proved theme of Weapons of Mass Destruction. This is because the NATO nations have a unified stance and wield enough power to prevail. The ‗Weapon of Mass Destruction‘ theme was a matter of crafting legitimacy for the Iraq war, Terrorism is used as a free card in case of Afghanistan and Libya was prey to R2P and new legitimacy tool for intervention what is deemed by the West a threat to their vital interest. Germany was the only country in Europe who did not approve interventions via R2P against Libya as it remained skeptical about the use of force for other than the humanitarian grounds. Germany‘s role in all other anti-terrorists and anti-piracy operations is an evidence to tell fairness from the maligned intentions of the rest of the NATO nations (Brockmeier, 2012).
Pakistan can in the same way learn from these vivid episodes to secure her from an aggravated Security Dilemma. Pakistan Army fought terrorism to micromanaging the internal law and order i.e. in Karachi and desirous to be doing the same in Punjab. Pakistan military was not successful to find headway for law and order operations as stipulated in national action plan. The federal government and their affiliates in Punjab government remain reluctant to approve, in case of Punjab, for the army to operate there. In a statement prime minister Nawaz Sharif said, ―There is no room for any [military] operation in Punjab as there are neither any safe havens of terrorists here nor a territory is controlled by militants‖
108 (Manan, 2016). Pakistan will face rise in its Security threats with the changing strategic priorities where Indian has come to the center stage in the region and Pakistan has drifted to security quagmire as it has now lesser relevance to Western strategic interest after the end of cold war. India will exploit any weakling in Pakistan security system and will try to make its strategic assests as illegitimate to put Pakistan under international pressure that can be catalyst for Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
4.4.4.: Strategic Communication ―In international relations, the news media are considered to be an external, yet critical factor in shaping foreign policy decisions to achieve broader national interest goals. (Graham.T. Allison, 2000)‖. According to a report that appeared in a Pakistani daily it was noted that US paid salaries to the correspondents stationed at Washington through an NGO, American Abroad Media (AAM). It is enough to understand how US can control the media. In the same report it quotes Aaron Lobel, President of AAM, ―I haven‘t encountered any Pakistani channel that doesn‘t want to work with us,‖ (The Express Tribune, September, 2011). Shumaila Farooq work finds that the, ―The results show that journalists tend to cover conflicting events and tensions rather than positive ones in foreign affairs analysis, highlighted through keywords which appeared with high frequency in each newspaper. This reveals the editorial policy of US elite media in particular‖ (Farooq, 2015). According to an investigative report by the Bureao of investigative journalism US paid half a billion dollar for secret propaganda during Iraq war for making fake Al-Qaeda videos. (Fielding-Smith, 2016). West played Communist mantra against USSRto keep it hyped and by keeping it on front burner now the West wanted to deal with the next perceived threat that was against Muslim states who possessed comparative military power were deemed threat to US interest like Iraq, Libya, Iran, Syria and some infer from this that all the resource rich Muslim states and the only nuclear power capable Pakistan is also West‘s war and occupation hit list. Very vital information confirms this analytical and manifested fact. A former US general who were privy to information which was disclosed to him said, the US electronic and print media unleashed all sort of propaganda against communist Russia to form and design certain perceptions against a country where they planned to impose war.
109 Figure 9: The Dog attack faked as propaganda against Muslims.
Source: (GlobalElitetv, 2015)
This picture shows how themes are made against Muslims. The referred link entails full details from where this news was picked to concoct. (GlobalElitetv, 2015). Muslim identity is different than Christians who are first identified with their regions and Muslims are taken as one whole community living anywhere due to their strong pan Islamism character. It is not so in the case of Christians living anywhere. The Western identify them as German, English, American and French etc. their Christians sub-identity remains secondary due to their political system. However, they insert religion expediently to the political narratives to juxtapose it with Islam or any other religion with who they are in conflict. This makes it evident that Muslim image anywhere matters and counts for the security narratives as a whole. This picture is intended to blame all Muslims that include Pakistan as well.
Everything about communists used to be characterized as villainous by the West and especially US This kind of political propaganda and projection is peculiar to Western strategic culture. If we see the movies made in USA and their themes we would know dozens of such movies. ―The Woman on Pier 13 (1949), The Red Menace (1949), Arctic Flight (1952), Atomic City (1952), Diplomatic Courier (1952), The Steel Fist (1952), My Son John (1953), Man on a Tightrope (1953), Savage Mutiny (1953), and Prisoner of War (1954) - to name just a few of many.‖ (blog, nd ). North Korea, China, USS.R, and even Arab and others have been subject of such characterization. The military industrial complex
110 called USA is the biggest war launcher on this earth. This video would show you how a retired US General Wesley Clark was told by George W. Bush that they are going to attack seven countries in next five years. General Clark was shocked and asked why? The answer was even shocking, ‗I don‘t know about terrorists but we have got a good military and we can take down governments‘ (youtube , 2012). A study carried out by Shumaila Farooq from International Relations Department, University of Peshawar has investigated that the US print media was unfavorable to Pakistan. (Farooq, 2015). Pakistan is portrayed negatively in the Western and US media. That should be something alarming as it always has proven a precursor of a coming threat. A serial propaganda campaign about Pakistan‘s nuclear plan on the theme of the command and control and creating doubts about is safety is done to make a case for its role up. US has a law ‗Passed as part of the National Defense Authorization Act (H.R. 4310), signed by Obama on 12/29/2012. Pages 326-328‘ it is meant to ―…Unbound the legal regulations against using propaganda against foreign audiences and American citizens. The intention is to influence public opinion by using television, radio, newspapers, and social media targeting the American and foreign people in controlled psy-ops24.‖ (GETV, 2013)
Prominent Journalist Naomi Wolf explains it in a lecture, how and why fake news are created and published. The fake news and stories are run in mainstream media like CNN without verification and to advance a particular agenda. (GETV, 2015).
4.5: International Political Realities and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
4.5.1: Post-World War-II Political Environment The post-First World War Wilsonian doctrine of self-determination ushered a new era of nation states after detriments of this doctrine established its theoretical credentials at the end of Second World War. How former US President echoes even today is reflected in the speeches of contemporary US presidents who referred to his doctrinal ideas most important in prescribing the present time world order.
―President Obama spoke at West Point, where he defined America‘s place in the world much as Wilson might have — propping up the international order, defending human rights, and walking eternally down the path of virtue. George W. Bush, so different in so many ways, also radiated
24 Psychological Operations
111 Wilsonian idealism, even as he claimed to be an un-Wilsonian realist. His second Inaugural Address, drawn straight from the Wilson playbook, declared ―the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.‖ (Ted Widmer, 2014)
The later modern political developments, model; events to suit the emerging nation state order. The emergence of nation states provoked a consciousness of identities variants which divided nations on ethnic, geographical, ethnic, linguistic, ideological religion and faith distinctions. With new political realities and a Westernized society that experienced cultural, educational and modern transition from their normative cult made the faith bonded ideology fractured into secular, nationalist, sectarian, inter-faiths and religions factionalism, resulting in sub conflicts at regional level. With these fault lines internally and at the regional level, Pakistan became an easy prey in the hands of international power politics players to serve their purpose for peanuts of foreign aid surrendering its own sovereignty at times. Departure from old ethos and adjusting to new world realities created disagreements, conflicts and confrontations which also impacted Pakistan as an important entity on the world map with Muslim identity and a cause of Pakistan‘ Security Dilemma.
On the international scene world war was afresh event with its post war international relation adjustments. A weaker Europe, assertive America, post empire, Russia transformed with three decades old Bolshevik revolution which started in 1917, flexing with its communist ideology. These events were making the next phase of the world power politics. The rest of the world was going through the process of emancipation and nation states. The newly emerging nation states were sandwiched between two political and economic systems each bidding higher to lure them in their ideological fold. This lead to alliances and pacts pitched against two major political economies the capitalist West and the communist Soviet Union. From North Africa to India however, the nationalist zeal was predominant on the political scene with the exception of two world states Israel and Pakistan that were basing their identity on faith but a secular functioning Pakistan leaned mostly on Western nations where India chose to join non alignment movement and avoided joining any anti-communist pact but harbored a communist leaning. This divided both the sub continental rivals in two Capitalist and Communists camps, adding to their security complexities as both got arms from the states of respective alliances. India had double advantage as it was getting from both. In the case of Pakistan the arms provided were meant against communist advances but
112 it was well understood that Pakistan is strengthening this way to ward off any aggression from India.
4.5.2: The Changed Structure of Nations The political development in India was parallel to Westphalia paradigm shift of 1648 in international relations and new democratic doctrines of West in the late 20th century. The post-World War international regimes and organizations provided a more integrated international political system that led to the formulation of fundamentals of self- determination and democracy. The phased out systems of classic empires came to a grinding halt and nation states mushroomed through a passive political movements replacing aggressive military conquests and expansionism. However, this shift did not rid the world of the imperialistic notions of powerful states under the new emerging political theory of realism. ―Formation of an imperial world order in the second half of the 19th century produced and faced the challenge of racial and geopolitical perception of global humanity‖ (Aladag, 2016)25.
US became the major proponent of realism, a countervailing super power against former USSR. The new international political strategy did not entail only physical occupation of other nations but through cultural and ideological engineering and political influence. The basic character of dominance of powerful nations thus remained unchanged and ostensibly became more aggressive by other means with power still the major driving force. This can be identified as the birth of ‗Realism‘, as a potent political tool that threatened the world peace as ―…of all the countries in the world land –locked Afghanistan was perhaps the most ‗secure‘ from US attack, yet as we have seen, in the autumn of 2001Washington was able to bomb it and encourage an uprising which, within a few weeks, overthrew the government.‖ (Robert Jackson, 2006, p. 53).
There emerged so many weaker nations without central power base like military and well engrossed leadership cadre to sustain it. Numerous weaker states created on the democratic principle of self-determination lacked the natural process of establishing itself with power and complete dominance thus remained dependent on powerful and abler international forces
25 Fatma Aladag interviewed global historian Associate Professor Cemil Aydin, (University of North Carolina)
113 for its security. Pakistan came through a political struggle and was part of this new international relation paradigm. Analyzing these deficiencies establishes that momentary cadre of leaders that led Pakistan movement proved a passing phase and their removal from the scene as soon as Pakistan came into being made a factor of its Security Dilemma as it left it without political direction in formulating a well deliberated security policy.
Pakistan‘s weak military and state structure could not cope with security threats right at the onset of its creation. Pakistan inherited dispute with India on annexation of Jammu and Kashmir through plebiscite which Indian initially acceded to and later changed its stance. This proved to be persistent predicament for the economy and the security of Pakistan as all the rivers originate from the state of Kashmir held by India. The issue of Kashmir became mother of all the issues Pakistan faces and it can be rightly said that this is the major cause of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. If this issue is resolved it would impact positively on the overall regional strength and the powers that be would be discouraged to manipulate either India or Pakistan.26
4.5.3: Failure of Collective International Peace Forums UN role in settling the issues between nations is not seen as assertive as it is towards the issues involving powerful nations. In the case of Pakistan Kashmir issue is one of such unresolved conflicts that has created Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. ―The UN had many successes, but it met the needs of another ear-the post-World War II period.‖ (Amin, 2006, p. 342). UN role in politically less influential regions has resulted in a bloody resistance in the Middle East, Caspian and Africa regions. The Palestine issue is a chronic cause of deterring peace in the Middle East. In Caucasia; Daghistan and Chechnya are still fighting for their independence and other Muslim Central Asian States still live under the iron hands of Russian Federation backed and installed rulers who are also partly backed with half opened eyes by the West and US i.e. Russian indiscriminate bombing of civilians and siding with Syrian minority sect leader Bashar al Asad regime, as it expediently considered. US is coordinating battle field procedures with Russia in Syrian regions that aims at blocking anti US elements who are immediate threat to her interest. (Liam Quinn and Alex Matthews, 2017). US perceived common threats of so-called ‗Muslim Fundamentalism‘ with the
26 Op-cit
114 Russian Federation. ―It increases the chances of greater US-Russian cooperation‖ (Gusovsky, 2015). This also serves their economic, resource and market interest in the region. In the same region, Georgia got a focused political support of Western nations to be free of Russian Federation control as it aligned itself with the USA and Western powers that have increased influence on international regimes with the erosion of the Soviet Union.
This seeming dichotomy weighs on the side of the powerful states and undermines the common interest of the nations as equal members of a pluralistic international regime. This has resulted in resistance movements in Kashmir, Palestine, Chechnya and elsewhere linked directly or indirectly to pan Islamic world movements like Al-Qaeda and various other resistance groups. Western perspective about such movements is understandably ‗terrorism‘ related which, however, has an equal opposite connotation as of oppressed and subject of injustice. These movements are deemed to enjoy wider sympathy in the Muslim world and most of Africa and else of the like who grudge benefits of pluralistic international regimes. The leadership that has emerged with an Islamic composure in Egypt, Tunis and Turkey is a strong indicator of this trend to find an alternative. Afghanistan and Pakistan‘s North- Western Pashtun belt show the effects of this inequality when their normative, tribal and traditional values are not taken into consideration resulting in the ongoing decade plus old resistance. Pakistan is directly affected by this international political discontent as it hosts a major portion of the people, groups and movements involved in the international ideological and political conflicts. The rest of Pakistan social fabric in general is permeated with the undercurrents of political perceptions that have become synonymous with resisting USA‘s influence. It will be hard to overcome the state of chaos and violence in less privileged regions of the world, in particular and world as a whole. Without universal pluralist approach aiming at common and granting a particular interest of normative and customary individuality.
With India prominent in the NAM pushed Pakistan to opt for joining Western alliance‘s as it needed immediate aid and political support under the feelings of international isolation where it could not muster enough support after India joining and leading NAM. Pakistan had more strategic importance for the USA due to its close proximity to its major ideological rival USSR around which it decided to make a ring of its international political affiliates bordering
115 or in the near proximity to former USSR as a part of the West‘s containment policy. Pakistan‘s alignment with the West against communist USSR was a naiveté diplomatic act as it did not bargain any diplomatic or military favor on the issue of Kashmir and rather pledged its support voluntarily at the cost of its future political and security miseries and dilemma.
4.5.4: The Character of Western Political and policy Approach To understand Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma it is necessary to know the Western strategic culture what affects it. USA is a major factor in this regard. With more than thousand military bases matter in global security. Pakistan is icon of Islamic revivalism as its national ideology is faith based and thus represents, if not in character in theory, the urge to resist Western secular, philosophical, political and religious influences that can undermine the fundamentals of Islamic faith thus becomes prime focus of the powers that seeks reasons to project their power. A natural making of insecurity is a conflict that needs settlement. As natural as its creation, it should logically end with resolution of conflict itself. Presumably Pakistan‘s single dispute with India on issue of Kashmir, if resolved should end dispute between them. But for US it would need more reasons to keep intact its power projection, which makes it androgenic. This is what adds to the security liability beyond conventional threat. Barry Buzan has elaborately explained the new realm of security theory practiced by US and the West; basing not only conventional threat but if that might be in form of human rights, environment, nuclear proliferation, democracy etc. The new concept of R2P (Right to protect) is one of lethal tool in hands of powerful nations especially USA, to intervene in other nations threatening their security like we saw it practiced in Libya, bringing democracy was made a theme in the case of Iraq, terrorism became keyword to occupy Afghanistan. Pakistan and Iran are also in the same line due to international concern for nuclear proliferation and terrorism which can be instrumental in its Security Dilemma.
4.5.5: International Interventionist Designs and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma According to a new study that appears in the ‗Journal of Conflict Resolution’ August, 2016, the American interventionist designs are going beyond the containment of the sort during cold war. It further says that Washington‘s capacity exist to act beyond a purely national interest. A military intervention in Bosnia, Kosovo, Libya and Somalia indicates that appetite. (Seug-Whan Choi, 2016). The NATO experience in Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq
116 and now in Syria has made US and its allies unscrupulous and unhesitant if they have to intervene to get the less powerful state under their quasi-imperial order. Pakistan‘s strategic position warrants caution in this regard owing to its high political and representative stature in the Muslim world and being a nuclear state. Any unwarranted proactive move can provoke international military threat and can cause Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. It is easier to assimilate this fact in present times, than it was possible a decade ago when foreign intervention was not that alarming a term and did not make sense beyond the theoretical realm. The recent interventions and its successful execution by the NATO nations in Middle East and Russia in Syria is a case to confirm this argument. The historical prejudices would be formed into justification for such actions. The use of coercive strategies by the powerful states like USA will have an aim to change the state behavior. Human rights, terrorism and political issue like democracy and governance would be circumvented and will be part of strategic communication to legitimize foreign interventionist actions. Western media27 is already projecting themes about Pakistan nuclear programme, human rights violations, anti-military themes and lack of democracy. Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has already been unleashed in case of Libya with partial human rights justifications which are presumed as not the exact cause but how it threatened the national interest of the NATO nations. Libya proved in practice a welfare state with some tribal grudges peculiar to the Middle East which were projected to put Libya on international politicking anvil and eliminate it, which was done swiftly and successfully leaving the ravaged country in doldrums‘. Any potent state in any region threatening US interests can face the same consequences. This would cause Pakistan more than what Security Dilemma it faces presently.
27 This fact has been investigated in a study carried out by Dr. Shumaila Farooqps (2016), IR Department, University of Peshawar.
117 Figure 10: Major Interventions in Muslim Countries by Projection Terrorism as Justification
Libya 2011 Iraq 2003
Afghanistan 2001
4.5.6: Crafting of Interventionist Provisions and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma The emerging extended security concepts haunt Pakistan of a Security Dilemma in making as following narratives and conceptual interpretations of interventionist reasoning. The new concepts of R2P, sovereignty, national interest and others fall in postmodernist category to view the world in its objectivity; framed with other modernist theories. It would therefore, be pertinent to discuss the new emerging concept and postmodernist explanations of Responsibility to Protect (R2P), Sovereignty and National Interest.
The concept of protecting the civilians from their governments‘ ‗atrocities‘ or where the governments fail to protect them, is projected by Western nations part of international consent to allow military intervention. These are presented as a set of principles or international norms that define sovereignty not as a right but a responsibility. When sovereignty is divorced to responsibility, it becomes a collective responsibility shifted from a government to the international community to protect the people anywhere on the globe. This disregards generally perceived right of sovereignty to protect people from genocide, war crimes, crimes against humanity, and ethnic cleansing. In the world summit in 2005 R2P provision were included in para 138 and 139 reaffirmed by UN in April, 2006 through resolution (S/RES/1674) formalizing UN support for the R2P. These provisions prescribe:
―138. Each individual State has the responsibility to protect its populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. This responsibility entails the prevention of such crimes, including their incitement, through appropriate and necessary means. We accept that responsibility and will act in accordance with it. The international community should, as appropriate, encourage and help States to exercise this responsibility and support the United Nations in establishing an early warning capability.‖
118 139. The international community, through the United Nations, also has the responsibility to use appropriate diplomatic, humanitarian and other peaceful means, in accordance with Chapters VI and VIII of the Charter, to help protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. In this context, we are prepared to take collective action, in a timely and decisive manner, through the Security Council, in accordance with the Charter, including Chapter VII, on a case-by-case basis and in cooperation with relevant regional organizations as appropriate, should peaceful means be inadequate and national authorities manifestly fail to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. We stress the need for the General Assembly to continue consideration of the responsibility to protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity and its implications, bearing in mind the principles of the Charter and international law. We also intend to commit ourselves, as necessary and appropriate, to helping States build capacity to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity and to assisting those which are under stress before crises and conflicts break out. (Outcome, 2005)
The concept of collective security is a corollary for regional alliances. At regional level countries integrate into a group or alliance on common grounds of culture, religion, political, economic interest and shared values peculiar to a region. All these factors become divergent in a global scenario. In some global conflicts totally different perceptions make it ambiguous and ill-defined, as to what makes an ideal case for military intervention. The regional collective model like EU has successfully ensured security in Europe to a greater extent, but the disintegration of USSR, the emergence of non-state actors, interfaith issues, and transnational threats in post-cold war era mushroomed, making it additional burden on national and international security due to its extended and radically divergent character.
Concepts of Security from alliances to the most intrusive articles of Responsibility to Protect (R2P) has created the most critical element of Security Dilemma for states that lack in field of real politick and has caused an ever increasing threat within paradigm of nation states that has resulted in the end of big Empires and emergence of two big powers now reduced to one only. In contemporary power politics, it has skeptically created a fear in weaker states those defy powerful states‘ political order. An engineered chaos in politically discriminated states; can be construed by the powers that matter, to justify military intervention in energy, resource and market lucrative zones to exact regime change. Iraq, Afghanistan and Libya have become fresh models in this regard notwithstanding the justification of use of force, but its impact on the security and application of the latest doctrine of military intervention. Pakistan falls in strategic zone having potential to become a prey of critical Security Dilemma owing to strategic abrasiveness and a declined trust factor and rapport with
119 international community. Pakistan is seen playing double game as an ally in war on terrorism by NATO nations and others. CIA discarded any sharing with its ally in the War on Terrorism in the killing mission of Osama Bin Laden in the Pakistani city of Abbottabad on 2nd May, 2011. US while planning the raid excluded Pakistan as confidante doubting, it might not tip, if it harbored, Osama Bin Ladin. The CIA Director Leon Panetta said that, ―It was decided that any effort to work with Pakistanis could jeopardize the mission. They might alert the targets‖ (Time, 2015). This skepticism is a loud indicator of any future Security Dilemma in the wake of Pakistan‘s assertiveness in perusing its perceived interest in the region and international pledges as an ally in the War on terrorism at the same time. This creates another question, can a nation have full liberty to choose between tactical and strategic options to achieve its foreign policy objectives that implies like harboring people as a tactical tool of influence and at same time act as strategic partner in collective international security. Nations do need a strategic space to keep intact their interest finding a way out in its collective international obligation. It is fair to have this right disrespecting big or small size of nations. Lack of national power keeps this option out seemingly in loud and clear terms which is reflected the way ex-US President George. W. Bush declared in his speech on 20th September, 2011 to joint session of Congress addressing the world ―Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists.‖ The implicit consequence of not joining the team effort is to be deemed an enemy and is therefore a harbinger of a Security Dilemma in making. The May US raid in Abbottabad was based on notions of big power preemption and intervention the political thinking which undermines the classic concept of sovereignty.
4.5.7: NATO: A New Formation with Old Legacies? The US power projection is shared indirectly by all the NATO members. This power projection depends on a reason to justify it. US strategic culture has been the formation of enemy and to weave around it its security policy. America is historically relevant to Muslim resistance thus security as the fall of Muslim rule in Granada and start of Voyage of Columbus to find new lands happened at the same time. One of the aim of Columbus voyage was, ‗Whereas, Most Christian, High, Excellent, and Powerful Princes, King and Queen of Spain and of the Islands of the Sea, our Sovereigns, this present year 1492, after your Highnesses had terminated the war with the Moors reigning in Europe…I saw the royal banners of your Highnesses planted by force of arms upon the towers of the Alhambra‘
120 (Guide, nd). After greeting the queen, clearly showing his religious inclinations, Columbus goes on to describe his passion for the voyage in these words, ‗Your Highnesses, as Catholic Christians, and princes who love and promote the holy Christian faith, and are enemies of the doctrine of Mahomet, and of all idolatry and heresy, determined to send me, Christopher Columbus, to the above-mentioned countries of India, to see the said princes, people, and territories, and to learn their disposition and the proper method of converting them to our holy faith‘ (ibid). This journal is widely known and contested due to save respect to Columbus as he has become an American national symbol but the very presence of this kind of literature that date back to the start of Columbus voyage explicitly reveals the political roots of the present American character and that of European in general. What have mostly been contested about this document are the details of atrocities by the Columbus contingent that went with the voyage, and recorded in the journal. His intentions with regard to the followers of ‗Mahomet‘ as he mentions Muhammad, peace be upon him are not seen contested however.
The prevailing studies and political theories explain European and US strategic culture that has the impact of its historical roots. A recent study (Emil J. Kirchner, 2010) elucidates it like, ‗…Security cultures predict and determine the importance countries place on certain policy domains (e.g. the military rather than the civilians). The security strategies base varying emphasis on the major security domains that includes prevention, assurance, protection and competence or a combination of all these. British have visualized itself, …‗a leading member of world most successful alliance- NATO, the European Union‘ in the word of British Chief of Defense Staff, Air Chief Marshal Sir Jock, who suggested in Defense Committee proceeding that, ‗…UK is going to play a substantial role in delivering the right degree of global stability in that extremely challenging environment‘ (Smith M. A., 2010). In a recent key note speech at Bloomberg the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair said, ‗The important point for western opinion is that this is a struggle with two sides… It is in fact a struggle in which our own strategic interests are intimately involved…Underneath the turmoil and revolution of the past years is one very clear and unambiguous struggle: between those with a modern view of the Middle East, one of pluralistic societies and open economies, where the attitudes and patterns of globalization are embraced; and, on the other side, those who want to impose an ideology born out of a belief that there is one proper
121 religion and one proper view of it, and that this view should, exclusively, determine the nature of society and the political economy. We might call this latter perspective an ‗Islamist‘ view‘‘ This mindset indicates clear security lines drawn. Pakistan not been mentioned by name as a major concern. The British involvement in Afghanistan and supporting US initiatives is part of Pakistani security liabilities. With this strategic assessment, Tony Blair pinpointed the threatening region that clearly shows the increased worries for Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma while indicating our region and Pakistan in particular he says, ‗What is presently happening there, still represents the biggest threat to global security of the early 21st Century. The region, including the wider area outside its conventional boundary – Pakistan, Afghanistan to the east and North Africa to the west – is in turmoil with no end in sight to the upheavals and any number of potential outcomes from the mildly optimistic to catastrophe.‘ The speech closes on to the specific element of strategic threat that haunts the Christian West making a case for the religious bias in their security strategies that is alarming, ‗from Iraq to Libya to Egypt to Yemen to Lebanon to Syria and then further afield to Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan – this is the essential battle… there is something frankly odd about the reluctance to accept what is so utterly plain: that they have in common a struggle around the issue of the rightful place of religion, and in particular Islam, in politics.‘ This makes a paradigm shift from containment of communism to confrontation with Islam in modern political parlance. He however, identifies the internal complexities derived from tribes, traditions and territory of regions including among the top Pakistan, (Spector, 2014). This makes it a protracted and persistent scenario prone with conflict that would add to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
4.5.8: The West’s Strategy of Securitizing Elements of National Power of Rival Nations The Westphalia political experience established an order aimed at balance of power. Balance of power restrained the power level of all regional nations not to exceed a certain threshold where it threatened the other nation. In modern times after the making and extension of NATO and with keeping in view the prevailing global implications, power has been monopolized by the few. Europe has a collective military and defense system in the form of NATO with US in lead. Civilization and major clash between the religious orders and the modern political ideologies that in present time prominently interprets into the West, Islam and other major international actors like China and Russia has been spiraled from regional to
122 global level where not the balance of power but the curtailment of power destruction of societies of rivals has become a new Western strategy.
Pakistan being a leading Muslim country with other Muslim nations confront this new rivalry on front lines. For example the US keeps a strict vigil on Pakistan‘s nuclear program and other aspects of social trending like extremism, the development of economic, science and technology and means of power projection of any regional power or single smaller state to cross a certain threshold. USA expresses its reservations and skepticism about Pakistan‘s mega project CPEC as it can extend China‘s economic and military reach through Indian Ocean. USA is also wary of China‘s extension in the South China. USA has diplomatically put a restraint on Iran to stop its nuclear program. According to Whitehouse on 16th January, 2016 the International Atomic Energy Agency IIAEA) confirmed that Iran has completed necessary steps under the Iran deal that will ensure Iran nuclear program is and remains exclusively peaceful. (Whitehouse, 2016).
The denial of science and technology is part of the Western Strategies to keep the weaker nations dependent on them or to control the arms proliferation. According to Amitav Malik of Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ―The relevance of technology to security is manifold and the role of ‗technology control‘ as an important tool for national security strategies is significant… During cold war years, the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (COCOM) was a technological embargo regime to prevent the transfer of dual-use technology and equipment to communist bloc states.‖ (Malik, 2004) p.14.
123 Figure 1: The Technological Block, Iranian Nuclear Deal 2016
Source:https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/foreign-policy/iran-deal retrieved, 23 October,2016.
Salient points of Iranian accomplishment according to the deal:
Shipped 25,000 pounds of enriched uranium out of the country Dismantled and removed two-thirds of its centrifuges Removed the calandria from its heavy water reactor and filled it with concrete Provided unprecedented access to its nuclear facilities and supply chain
It has put caution on Pakistan‘s nuclear program and now is wary of its CPEC mega project of Gwadar to block Chinese influence and Pakistan‘s economic development that would imply in terms of eroding US influence at its cost. The CPEC project might lessen Pakistan‘s dependence on USA as it would open so many new avenues for the self- sufficiency and future economic development of Pakistan and will result in furthering China‘s influence. USA has been observed annoyed and helpless in checking North Korea‘s nuclear and missile program development. The North Korean nuclear and missile development would affect the US influence in the region as it directly threatens its ally, South Korean and Japan and might compromise its security. Israel under the economic and military influence of US doesn‘t allow cement and basic construction material in Gaza strip as Palestinians might use to
124 smuggle weapons and logistic that might impact negatively the defense of Israel. All the measures of blocking Iran and any other have no effect in case of Israel if criteria are to block a state‘s military and economic development for the world peace. Israel is an undeclared nuclear power the biggest recipient of military aid instead. Pakistan is exposed to all such strategic trending and threats that has put it in Security Dilemma.
Pakistan has been evading this level of confrontation and blocking measures to its nuclear and missile programs due to certain concessions and owing to its inevitable strategic importance for the USA. Pakistan has even approved certain unpopular acts for USA which in normal circumstances would be deemed a denial of its sovereignty. Pakistan‘s present political elite have a quite willing composure to assuage American concerns for their own survival in competition with internal soaring civil-military relations. This kind of shady practice is also causing a national security hazard and the Western powers are apt in exploiting such an opportunity as part of their strategic cultures.
4.5.9: Strategic Reality and Political Crafting US support to military or democracy depends on its strategic designs. It support for either of these two instructions depends on the level of affinity with international order and US foreign policy. In case of Pakistan and in other parts of the world US has focused on individuals as installed leaders with pro-US approaches or the one aligned with U.S‘s fundamental strategic interests. US has a history of covert regime changes (Bonicelli, 2015), where a national leader acted against US‘s national interest. US shifted its stance from supporting military governments to democracy or civilians rules to take all onboard. US in fact had their interest not to rely on military only this time, as they wanted to accomplish it with a new strategy of courting civilians‘ governments for realizing their foreign policy objectives, maintaining parallel relationships with military governments in Pakistan. US did so keeping in view the popular view about dictatorship and democracy. US support for military government only would have created an impression as if the war on terrorism does not enjoy people‘s support. Elaborating on US policy in this regard, Henry Kissinger writes in his article, ―US policy has been to urge President Pervez Musharraf into forming a coalition government with one or more civilians‘ parties, which would pursue the anti-fundamentalist war (or the war on terrorism) in a more coherent and determined manner.‖ Purpose of such a combination in a
125 country where mostly military had been involved in security policies is to balance it with civilians control over it.
This enemy crafting is processed through media projection and for demonizing the target entity to legitimize counter actions under coercive strategies. Stephen Kinzer‘s view is very important to substantiate this fact owing to his vast experience. In an interview he explains this formation crafting as US as a strategy, ―The invasion of Iraq in 2003 was not an isolated episode. It was the culmination of a 110-year period during which Americans overthrew fourteen governments that displeased them for various ideological, political, and economic reasons.‖ (Guernica, 2007). The US doesn‘t lay down regime change as an element of foreign policy but as a strategy of international relations. This strategy haunts Pakistan‘s stability and adds to its Security Dilemma.
Kinzer answers in the interview (ibid) as to how a regime change is conceived and executed, ―The first thing that happens is a foreign government … try to control their own natural resources, …The directors of these companies [usually US citizens), outraged at attempts of some foreign government to regulate them, come to the White House and complain. That‘s the first phase… The second phase … They transform the motivation from an economic one to one that they call ‘political‘ or ‘geo-strategic‘. They allow themselves to become convinced that any government that would be bothering, harassing, restricting or taxing an American company must be anti-American, anti-capitalist, evil, repressive… that‘s trying to subvert American power in the world. That‘s the way the motivation morphs in the political process… It then morphs one more time when American leaders have to explain to American citizens and others around the world why we carried out a particular intervention [legitimacy]. At that point, we usually do not use the economic, or even the political, motivations to explain our actions. Instead, we say that we are intervening out of charity— that we are doing it to help an oppressed people who are being brutalized by an evil regime‖ [or as part of ‗Responsibility to Protect‘ or delivering democracy]. The example of Musadiq government in Iran, occupation of Iraq and regime change in Libya under the ‗Responsibility to Protect‘ propositions substantiates this view. In case of Afghanistan and Pakistan they apply no different strategy. Afghan Jihad was an official version when waged against former USSRand has become terrorism when the same lot started resisting the US itself as occupier.
126 US kills the same lot in Afghanistan and forces Pakistan to kill them in war on terrorism and aid and help them fight in Syria where the same so-called terrorists are dubbed as moderates because they serve the US interest there fighting as proxies. Chris Folyd notes, ―All these ideological and religious labels don't matter at all to the leaders of the Terror War; the only thing that matters are the temporary expedients of power." Fight al Qaeda in Iraq; fund al Qaeda in Lebanon; arm and train Shiite militias and death squads in Iraq, then fight Shiite militias and death squads in Iraq‖ (Soccerdad, 2007).
4.6: An Estranged Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Pakistan became neighbor to an irredentist Afghanistan in the West and with India on its East as arch rivals. A country‘s security policy is shaped by its threat perceptions (Hussain S. R., 2015). Pak-Afghan sensibilities have the British legacy permeating their sore relations. As Muslim states both countries have less to grudge If not wedged by modern political, ideological and nationalistic influences, Afghanistan and Pakistan in particular and the Muslim Ummah in general have too much in common to make one unified block. Dr. Allama Muhammad Iqbal has symbolized the pan Islamism in his poetry:
(We the Muslim are one, from the Nile to the lands of Kashghar)
Pakistan onwards till the tip of North Africa) make a continuous and contiguous region. Arab Muslims had crossed the strait of Gibraltar to enter Europe and have ruled Spain for 800 years and have left their indelible cultural civilization imprints which the Muslim could not hold due to their internal disunity. It includes important cultural and historical landmarks from Pakistan to the farthest parts of Middle East. Muslim heroes, sages, scholars and leaders are common Ummah heritage. After the international intrigues began, the whole Muslim
127 Ummah has been divided on nationalism and sectarian basis. Besides, Muslim‘s secular elite has undermined the collective Ummah‘s concept by partisan approach and becoming part of modern political theories and ideologies.
A few elements of common belief and respectability for Muslims anywhere are:
Faith Culture History Heroes What makes this bond strong is a common belief in divine faith order and not on manmade ideologies and doctrines. That is what constructs the hard and fundamental stance of Muslim Ummah.
Figure 2: Pakistan Afghan Elements of Common Heritage.
Faith
The Common Culture Pak -Aghan Heroes Heritage
History
Many of the most revered Sheikhs came from Afghanistan. Some of these migrated to areas now included in Pakistan where they have great following. Ali Hajwairi of Jajwair, Ghazni, Afghanistan, known locally as Data Gunj Bakhsh is one of such common elders. The revered Afghan Muslim Shiekh has a great following in Punjab, Pakistani who seek supplication by visiting his tomb in Lahore, Pakistan, as per the belief and sectarian approach they follow.
128 Pakistan has named a few of her strategic weapons on the names of Afghan conquerors in Subcontinent through the ethos of past conquests and their rule afterward. Ghouri, Ghaznavi and Abdali are Pakistan‘s long range missiles named after Afghan war lords.
Figure 3: Pakistan Missile System bearing Name of Afghan War Heroes
Source: Google Images
The relations of Pakistan became estranged with Afghanistan on the issue of Durand line as Afghanistan tried to reset its position on this issue with new irredentist claim on area that became part of Pakistan after the partition of sub-continent into. The change of political attitude and relations was caused by the formation of political perception of Afghanistan, after British great game, and US policy shifts at the end of Soviet‘s withdrawal and US new role in Afghanistan. The interim period of Afghan Jihad and a short Taliban stint proved politically favorable to Pakistan which Pakistan could not sustain due to backing out of the major US support. Durand Line is open to International stake holders in Afghanistan and their installed regimes to manipulate this issue as per their strategic and political taste. It is open to US international designs. India and Afghanistan make an ‗enemy of the enemy friends‘ combination, one as Pakistan rival on Kashmir issue and the later to play up the issue of Durand Line. Iran patronizes as anywhere else the Shia population of the Northern Afghanistan who are deemed not favorable to Pakistan. The crux of the situation in Afghanistan is that she has become hub of US, India, and Iran‘s strategic interest.
129 Afghanistan herself is suffering as a strategic playground emitting terrorism and Pakistan facing a Security Dilemma as a neighbor, and downgraded US ally.
This development in Afghanistan after 11 September, 2001 was a nightmare scenario for Pakistan. Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma grew with a hateful Northern Alliance against Pakistan, Indian domination in Afghanistan, its nexus with, Afghanistan intelligence and Afghanistan political and operational space lost to Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), the Indian intelligence agency that let India free to lay an enveloping covert network from east and west, with no Pakistani sympathizer in Afghan government. US consent cannot be ruled out as nothing could of this sort be possible under the US vigil that is in full control of Afghanistan. It is meaningful that, ―When Leon Panetta, the then US Defense Secretary, visited India in 2012; encouraged Indian leaders to assume a greater role in Afghanistan.‖ (Reuters, 2012). Prior to his portfolio as US Defense Secretary Panetta was chief of US intelligence agency, CIA. India consulates in Afghanistan assumed proximity of Pakistan‘s Baluchistan and North- West province to launch subversion and support anti Pakistan and secessionist elements. India operated with comparative ease due to nexus with Afghanistan nationalist and secular elite who promoted the cause of Pashtunistan on the lands of Afghanistan and Pakistan that they deem a common Pashtun region. India has calibrated its involvement in Afghanistan with a full control on covert and diplomatic maneuvering. ―India has trained 650 Afghan officers and members of its special forces, but has equivocated on Afghanistan‘s request for arms. In a ‘wish list‘ submitted to the Indian government during a visit in 2013, Karzai requested tanks, field guns and aircrafts.‖ This is due to fact that, ―Delhi is aware of the fears in some quarters of Pakistan over India‘s increasing involvement in Afghanistan‖ (The Diplomate , 2014).
Pakistan‘s concern is obvious from the statement of its Chief of Army Staff General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani, ―Strategically, we cannot have an Afghans Army which has an Indian mindset and capabilities to take on Pakistan.‖ The report further goes on to analyze the threat posed to Pakistan in these words, For the Pakistani military, the existential threat posed by India has taken over all the other geopolitical and economic goals…it has led the ISI to take steps that put Pakistan‘s own security at risk, as well as Pakistan‘s relationship with its main strategic ally, the U.S….Pakistan has sought to restore the Taliban to power so that it can oust Karzai and his Indian friends‖ (Brookings, 2013).
130 At the same time Pakistan has its own complaints against Afghanistan‘s (former Afghanistan president) Karzai government whom it blames for supporting splinter Terrorists groups using the Taliban umbrella, operating against Pakistan military and also involved in sabotage acts in its urban areas. A statement submitted to the Supreme Court of Pakistan by the ISI stated, ―Anti-Pakistan elements, particularly from across the border in Afghanistan, had provided ‘strong support‘ in terms of money, logistics and training and this was ‘one of the main factors for increased militancy‘, The effect of such militancy have resulted in, ―3,871 Pakistani security personnel, more than 3,000 militants and more than 5,000 civilians had been killed … There had been 235 suicide attacks, 9,257 rocket attacks and 4,256 bombings during the same period, the report added‖ (NBC, 2013). This is an indicator of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
4.6.1: Post-9/11 Afghanistan and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma After the US intervention in Afghanistan Indian influence increased in Afghanistan. India made a nexus with US influenced and anti-Pakistan establishment of Afghanistan. Pakistan faced what it remained worried all along about its relations with Afghanistan with its favorable factions replaced by predominantly Northern Alliances factions and secular and nationalist Afghan factions installed by the US patronage. Pakistan has stopped using the name of Muslim heroes belonging to Afghanistan that shows the shift from pan Islamism to the new political realities. Names of Pakistani missiles are now symbolized with names picked from Quran referring to the names of swords and Javelins used by the Prophet S.A.W. This change of name phenomenon can be seen in names like, Hataf, Anza, Raad, Azab etc. The dichotomous manifestations of the faith and cultural affinity and the modern time political irredentist between Muslims are an evidence of international intrigue, the internal betrayal and self-centered interest of authoritarian rulers who traded it at the cost of Muslims living anywhere. The sense of affiliation and estrangement as juxtaposed here establishes the effects of British legacy and how it has affected the Pak-Afghan relations. Same can be true about Indians who have kept the name of their military arsenals showing a tit for tat symbolism like Prithvi, Trishol and Agni, just the opposite of what the Pakistani names symbolize their chivalrous past. All this spirals to escalate conflicts and confrontations. Hindu extremist RSS provokes Islamic fundamentalism bitter statements to challenge each other led to soaring of relations and to the brinks of war.
131 4.6.2: Pakistan Policy Shift and its Impact on Pakistan’s Security Dilemma In the contemporary global setting it is less possible for a regime or government to sustain itself without adhering to global political environment‘s renewed resolve for democratic order and civilian rule mostly with few strategic exceptions where civil democracies have proven threat to the powerful states‘ strategic designs. General (r) Pervez Musharraf‘s U-turn on the support to Taliban was not too willing a decision but under compulsions of unfavorable balance of power. It was under the threats of ‗Either you are with us, or you are with the terrorists‘, a statement of US President George. W. Bush in the wake of 9 September, 2001, which started with this dictating tone, ‗Every nation, in every region, now has a decision to make.‘ (House, 2001). Analyzing Pakistan was first to recognize Taliban government in Afghanistan due to the obvious strategic choices. Pakistan faced a predicament as it had no space left for its own interest. As US ally it was expected and rather coerced to abandon Taliban and as strategic assets Taliban were most suited in Kabul. Such a shift to turn back on Taliban had a traditional element of sense of betrayal less relevant to real politick. It resulted in a state behavior wandering in search of making two friends happy one of which, ‗Taliban‘ became disputed due to divergence of interest between US and them. In pursuit to contend with whatever strategic option Pakistan was left with created a complex diplomatic and Security Dilemma. Pakistan slowly and gradually drifted into chaos due to over spillage of new security challenges posed by a new phase of a renewed Jihad or resistance against US. US intervened for a regime change from Taliban to a select political regime in Afghanistan by promoting and supporting ex-CIA asset Hamid Karzai, an ethnic Pashtun from Kandahar. The new Afghan government was predominantly anti-Pakistani and pro-Indian. Afghanistan‘s Northern Alliance formed prominently as components of Afghanistan‘s post-Taliban government. Pakistan felt caught between the Eastern and Western fronts facing a Security Dilemma. Presumably Pakistan strived to promote and support favorable political faction heading Afghanistan government basing on the concept of strategic depth.
The concept of strategic depth seemed logical but politically complex. It was prone to fault lines of diverse perspectives. The anti-Pakistan foreign influence in Afghanistan projected Pakistani political and operation endeavors a recipe for the destruction of Afghanistan, as if it remained peaceful throughout its history. Afghans‘ negative political view about Pakistan
132 was projected on the propaganda narrative of ISI‘s involvement in the affairs of Afghanistan. Afghanistan‘s destruction during the course of Jihad against former USSR occupation was blamed on Pakistan. This makes it double standards as Afghans boasted of being the graveyard for invaders. Pakistan supported Afghans to rid them of Soviet occupation. Pakistan‘s role to support Mujahedeen is propagated as intriguer.
Pakistan has blamed India for such propaganda through its influence via Northern Alliance factions who view Pakistani support to predominantly Pashtun factions of Afghanistan not with a good view. The destruction, Afghanistan faced was not first as its history is replete with resistance and killings all along. It was only that this time when it happened Pakistan was on the world map and was contributing to the event in Afghanistan not to occupy but to measure its own security.
4.7: Pakistan Foreign Affairs and its Impact on Security Dilemma
Pakistan was adjusting it International orientation in the early stages of its creation. It sought military alliances in the wake Indian military threat. US could not ignore India and shipped weapons to it. USA engaged in general trade as it could not ignore a massive nation in the region. US diplomatic engagement with India was a balancing act, to compete rival super power USSRIn 1950s it started giving military aid to India, Chinese deemed it a measure of its encirclement thus it leaned to engage and support India‘s arch rival Pakistan. Pakistan was deemed by China as a compliment of strategic security against India another kind of front line state from Chinese perspective. USS.R and China had ideological differences and it was a matter of crucial decision making in International affairs to go which side as even it harbored to go with USS.R to countervail India it would have lost a better option of more viable relation with China who had a longer border and lesser liability as an ally. (Hussain D. S., 2015, pp. 9-26)
The other dynamic was that with India gone to the middle as non-aligned, with USSRleaning; had left the only slot to fill for Pakistan in the Western military block It probably was correct to choose between two most powerful friends one already gone with India and what left was USA which became a naturally left out and probably more likeable among the Pakistani ruling elite who had a pro-Western orientation as most of them were
133 West educated and lived in the West more often. India had adopted a nonaligned foreign policy and was closer with USSR than USA. USSR was probably less focused on relation with Pakistan than India due to her nonaligned status and anti-imperialist and colonial stance which converged with that of socialist and communist ideology. NAM as can be observed is predominantly full with the leaders sharing socialist ideology which USSRclaimed leading i.e. India‘s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, Gamal Abdel Nasser of Egypt, Yugoslavia President Josip Broz Tito, Soekarno of Indonesia, the founding fathers of the NAM were all with socialist leanings.
A British veteran diplomat analysis the option of Pakistan in its initial stages of International Relations in his book ‗Pakistan Chronicle’ which show the anatomy of opting for international allies:
―Pakistan would have opted firmly for non-alignment between the two superpowers; at heart, what they wanted was a special relationship, not with Britain or America but with the other Muslim countries and or any other country that would give them open support against India.‖ (James M. , Pakistan Chronicle, 1992,p.76)
It shows that from the very start the mother of all the troubles of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is its sore relation with India. India and Pakistan need to address this aspect of their relation as in this real politick world any strategically important region can be played up disfavouring both India and Pakistan. Only good regional relation can improve their respective security situation and can grant them both peace and overcome Security Dilemma.
India chose to join Non-Aligned Movement (NAM). NAM being an anti-imperialist body characterized mostly against West, imperialist and capitalist stance. By doing so it saved herself of the obligation of being in a certain camp and rather took advantage of maintaining a balance to milk good out of this diplomatic balance. India got Arms from both Soviets and USA without becoming their formal ally in an alliance. NAM consisted on post-colonial era countries from Asia and Africa with the exception of Cuba, the only country from Latin America who participated as NAM member when it was founded. This forum aimed at providing its own independent perspective and input. One of such purpose laid down in its constitution says:
134 ―To coordinate actions and strategies in order to confront jointly the threats to international peace and security, including the threats of use of force and the acts of aggression, colonialism and foreign occupation, and other breaches of peace caused by any country or group of countries. (Government of India, 2012)
The member countries however, kept a distance from joining alliances to save direct bearing on their political bias. The NAM had a precursor to it‘s founding as the, ―Bandung Asian- African Conference is the most immediate antecedent to the creation of the Non-Aligned Movement. This Conference was held in Bandung on April 18-24, 1955 and gathered 29 Heads of States belonging to the first post-colonial generation of leaders from the two continents with the aim of identifying and assessing world issues at the time and pursuing out joint policies in international relations‖ (Government of India, 2012).
4.7.1: Rival Alliances and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma? The scenario of the extended and global nature of US posturing was well painted and cautioned by Walter Lippmann, an American public intellectual who rejecting George Kennan‘s theory argued containment policy would ―Draw America into the hinterland of the Soviet Empire‘s extended periphery‖, he further visualized that US would be ―Forced to organize a ‗heterogeneous‘ array of satellites, clients, dependent and puppets, which would permit America‘s new fold allies to exploit containment for their own purpose.‖ (Lippmann, 1947)28.
Pakistan in the doldrums of making the decision to be aligned or non-aligned still lacked its constitution till 1954 whereas India formulated its constitution and decided its international political status as non-aligned. With the setting of communist and capitalist blocs, the aligned and non-aligned international political status formed the similar pattern. Pakistan‘s economic compulsion and anatomy with India factored in making a choice to become US partner. A Pakistan foreign office veteran and former Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Abdul Sattar has quoted the instances of this early tendency in his book:
28 Quoted in ‘Diplomatic History’ portal of Oxford University Press by Fredrik Logevall DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-7709.2004.00425.x, published on 21 July, 2004, Retrieved on 13/1/2017
135 ―Pakistan leaders lost no opportunity to project the country‘s strategic ‗importance. Speaking to a visiting assistant secretary of state in October 1949 Finance Minister Ghulam Muhammad stressed the importance to the United States… of the establishment of a block of (Islamic) nations…as a check to any ambition of USSR‘. Ambassador Georg McGhee, impressed by the directness of Pakistan leaders and communist encroachments in South Asia, recommended limited American military aid to Pakistan (Sattar, 2007).
Sir Morrice James the ex-UK High Commissioner to Pakistan noted in his book ‗Pakistan Chronicles’ that, ―Here was a deeper motive for Ayub and the others in signing up as a military client to America. In their hearts they knew that their objectives and America‘s were not the same- in common with almost everyone in Pakistan – that the real threat to their country was from India... As has been already mentioned the then President Ayub Khan did not have the mandate to do so as James observes, ‗Pakistani electorate would choose differently if and when they were given the opportunity.‘ (James M. , 1992,p.21). Pakistan‘s diplomatic course should have been fair not through way to put its national integrity at stake for the gains that never was. It was also due to the fact that Pakistan posed more of a security than a progressive state however; with certain of serious causes predicaments.
4.7.2: Pakistan International Relations: Fault Lines Pakistan-China (Sino-Pak) relations hinged on a balance proving less annoying for USA, countervailed India and had less diplomatic interruption to offset Pakistan‘s relation with USA. Pakistan proved a help in improving Sino-US relations playing its role as a friendly mediator between both which could make US President Richard M. Nixon visit possible to China the first ever in the history after it became a Socialist Republic. Diplomatic prowess of Former Pakistan Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto played vital role in bringing communist China closer to USA by making USA accepting People‘s Republic of China (PRC). Pakistan became US ally, China‘s friend and wary of India with no-so-good relations with Afghanistan, a neighbor on its North-West. USSR obviously noted this but felt comfortable to have India on its side with all the practical political manifestations if not in her military bloc formerly. USSR reacted sharply when Pakistan facilitated a surveillance facility in the south of Peshawar at Badaber airbase, from where US air force used to carry out missions to gather military intelligence and surveillance of USSR The base was abandoned by USA after
136 threat from President Khrushchev but left a sore point deemed by USSR, an act of military offence on the part of Pakistan.
The present Pak-Russia relations are however in nascent stage of improvement. Both the countries have conducted combined military exercises in 2016 as the first step to improve the relations between them. Russia however, kept the combined military activity calibrated as it clarified on an objection from India that Russian troops are not operating in Gilgit-Baltistan which India consider as part of Jammu & Kashmir integral to India which is controlled by Pakistan and declared by its people as part annexed with Pakistan informally. Pakistan‘s relations with China, Russia and USA have a risk of an additional security liability as any imbalance in the reality of influence by the major powers can result annoying any one left out the favoring loop, barring China that is contiguous to Pakistan and has far deeper engagement, both US and Russia are capable of exerting coercive means threatening Pakistan national security.
4.8: The US Political Approach and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
The bigger job to countervail Soviet Union was a task beyond Atlantic and borders of Europe. It entailed making of alliances with a number of states next and around Soviet Union among which Pakistan stood at the forefront. With the consolidation of powers that mattered in the world of realpolitik; national interest became the core aim of nations. The lion‘s share of political advantage went to winners of World Wars with emerging US political, industrial and military power that replaced empires. The new international relations programmed on US international theory precepts of ‗Realism‘. The theory of realism entailed elements of manipulation and security threats as it lays emphasis on realization of national interest manifested in projected power that could set aside morality if inevitable to achieve set goals. With the passage of time the precepts of realist policy in US and NATO security policies kept intertwining with the factors of post-world war international security elements like alliances, regime changes, proxy wars Jihad and nationalist insurgencies like in Libya, Algeria and Sudan. International manipulative powers under the auspices of NATO weighed on the side of who could serve their interest better and recruited nations through SEATO, CENTO and NATO military alliances all with the common aim to contain communism, a
137 threat to the European and American interests. Pakistan inherited a fragile political and military structure right at the onset of its inception. Pakistan‘s unintended consequence of joining alliances against the popular approval and due to realist political foreign policy effects on the Muslim world caused emergence of non-state actors, the major factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
4.8.1: The US Post-Cold War Shift: Reliance on Civilian Rule and Democracy US shift is related here to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma due to its peculiar US approach to benefit, keeping in view the Pakistan political environment. It was mostly due to the US mistrust of Pakistan Army in their role in the War on Terrorism and the military and what US thought Pakistan Army reluctance to act indiscriminately against all segments of Taliban resistance. The US expediency to bring Army under political order was keeping in view as to who can in the next phase of US strategic designs serve better. In Pakistan, US made a switch from supporting military regimes to democratically elected government after former US president Obama was elected. In normal circumstances it is fair for military to work as it should under the political system but in a country like Pakistan where military acted prominently in Pakistan‘s political affairs owing to regional and Pakistan security environment makes it dialectic and not simple to view US approach, without counting her global strategy. US relied Pakistan Army in the beginning of Pakistan creation as it was only viable institution comparatively intact. It was about the time of the start of cold war and US strategy was to bring Pakistan in Western military bloc against Communist Soviet Union. It is thought generally that owing to Pakistan Army institutional superiority where it could deliver to the Western interest; the West in general and US in particularly relied on this institution. The US shift from Army to civilian government owed to increase of religious extremism which in fact was promoted by US for to promote resistance against former Soviet Union and which became obsolete after the Soviet Union was defeated in Afghanistan. Army courted some of the rightist faction to see them as friendly rulers of Afghanistan which US thought as increased religious extremism under the Army in power. This shift impact Pakistan not for the choice of democracy but to support a political crafting that trades their being in power and for compromising national interest in return in competition with the Army whom they struggle to bloc into power. This compromising state interest and promotes the interest of individual who use democracy and not implement it.
138 At the same time it is also criticized in intellectual circles that Pakistan Army Generals used security situation in their favor to remain in power. However, Army grasp on security matters granted limited give and take while being a Western ally. Like drone attack during Musharraf time was on conditions and on Pakistani identified limited targets where as it escalated after civilian government in Pakistan (op-sit). US carried out a raid inside Pakistan and India claimed surgical strikes under civilians‘ government. However, it should be a fair and good electoral system and not the military to make a short cut to avoid these security threats that can be tackled by a good leadership and in an effective political way.
US made a shift to engage elected democratic government as Army lost weight after the end of cold which resulted in lesser dependence on army with regard to US regional strategy. US doubted Pakistan Army for its alleged double deal of being a US and NATO ally and engaging with segments of Taliban which US now dubbed as Terrorists. For Pakistan; doing so was in Pakistan‘s national interest if not a confrontation with US. US undermined Pakistan‘s strategic working and shifted to seek support for their political and strategic design to viable political set up. It was a welcome development for the political cadres of Pakistan that cosmetically put Pakistan on a democratic path unleashed with the signing of Charter of democracy in London in 2006 to deny space to Army intervention. Both the leaders of Pakistan People Party and Pakistan Muslim league issued a statement after signing the ‗Charter of Democracy‘ that, ―They will return to the country to take part in the campaign and to work for an end to the rule of Gen Musharraf‖ (BBC, 2006).
The military role in Pakistan‘s politics has a history to it. There are blames and counter arguments by both democratic and supporters of military regimes in Pakistan. Idealistically there is no room for military intervention in a democratic order. Military remains under political order and is subordinate to the executive. International power players exploited the apparent discomfiture of its anti-democratic and dictatorial character that could be used expediently, to approve when it worked and switch to expedient democratic ideals when it lacked to deliver. As is obvious from the events after the end of cold war, when US found Pakistan military‘s diminishing role in containing communism as the cold war ended.
With the change of Pakistan‘s military posture from the generalities of its role as an ally against communism to the specifics of internal compulsions to realize strategic depth by
139 installing a pro-Pakistani government in Kabul, the US had to make a shift from military to democratic or civilian rule in Pakistan owing to strategic dictates. US have supported despotic and dictatorial regimes throughout its history. The mantra of an anti-communist rhetoric was deemed enough to qualify for US support, at time at variance with the ideals of democracy. It is same in present times as communism cliché has replaced the new strategic rhetoric of ‗terrorism‘ to seek US support.
[Theodor C]. (Sorensen T. C., 1990), a senior partner at Paul, advised to overcome this tendency in US foreign policy at the end of cold war in an article in ‗Foreign Affairs’ ‗…Our financial, military and other support for oppressive and corrupt regimes in Africa, Asia, the Middle East and Latin America should now come to an end…No longer can we maintain that their willingness to speak in opposition to Soviet expansion is more important than their willingness to tolerate serious opposition parties and newspapers at home…‘, preceding to this conclusion (it was before terrorism became central to US security concept).
Sorensen says, ‗Where we have most clearly failed has been in our recurrent attempts to impose democracy on others by force of arms or covert operations…we have no wish or right to engage in what Dean Acheson, (United States Secretary of State in the administration of President Harry S. Truman from 1949 to 1953) once called ―messianic globaloney‖ to direct the destiny of peaceful people…we should look not for pawns or clones of United States…not every mistreated regional, tribal or ethnic minority proclaiming the right of self- determination deserves our embrace…a world ―made safe for diversity‖ must take into account historical, cultural, social and economic differences.‘ (Sorensen, 1990, pp. 1-18).
However, the factor that most of Pakistan‘s democratic governments proved more corrupt than under dictators or military regimes is also a cause of trusting Army regimes more externally as well as internally. Pakistani social structure has not matured for democracy under undemocratic feudal elite, chauvinistic clan and kinship, family rule and oligarchs of business and industrial elite and above all a conservative and illiterate society who elect them with all such lacking. According to a Pew survey a, ―median of 76% across 34 countries say corrupt political leaders are a very big problem in their country‖ (Pew, 2014).29
29 Pakistan public opinion was 59% who deem political leaders as problem.
140 According to Dr. Ilhan Niaz, professor of history at Quaid e Azam University, ―since 2008, the reluctance of the military to intervene overly in politics has been repeatedly demonstrated. This reluctance, however, has not resulted in improvement of civilian capacity or better governance by elected leaders.‖ Dr. Ilhan points out, ―the fundamental philosophical problem with [political] stability argument is that it supposes that repetition of a process produces improvement and better outcomes over time. This may be true for individual skills but there is very little historical evidence to validate the idea that repetition leads to better results for any political system.‖ He further goes on to say that, ―The great question that has engaged political philosophers from the dawn of recorded history is the challenge of bringing the wise and capable to power. (Niaz, 2015). The public opinion in the favor of Army and mistrust of politicians thus proves this fact. (Op-sit).
This does not imply to advocate a military rule but to create the environment for democracy with true essence. A truly practiced democratic order will itself be repulsive of a military rule or dictatorship and would block any unconstitutional military intervention or take over.
The estrangement of civil military relations and the US role for its expedient created Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as it entailed decisions made without political direction and able statesmanship that spiraled Pakistan security threats.
4.8.2: Pakistan US Relations and its Impact on Pakistan’s Security Dilemma Pakistan as a state variable that replaced British became a front line state against USSRUS and Pakistan entered into a security agreement on 5th March 1959. An agreement is different than a treaty as US bypasses approval from the US Senate. Pakistan did not condition it with its own part of national security clause as it pledged to mutual defense from communist theater and did not guarantee US military support to Pakistan if the threat was posed on in other context i.e. from India. The article one in the Pak-US agreement commits US in the case of aggression against Pakistan, ―Take such appropriate action, including the use of armed forces, as may be mutually agreed upon‖. This commitment was tied to the instances of communist aggression and not in the case of an attack by India. (Kux, 2001) .Pakistan‘s joining anti-communist alliance was not based on its inherent strength and capability but weakness as this was the only good source and option of the that time to improve its military and economic deficiencies oblivious of the future cost and gain considerations.
141 Although Pakistan was ostensibly and at times impressively playing its part in the war on terrorism as US ally but US kept airing its skepticism initially with one eye closed as it had so much at stake without Pakistan‘s support on the war on terrorism. With US‘s comparative consolidation in Afghanistan and Pakistan deteriorating political and law and order situation due to Taliban factor, US started pressing to abandon what it perceived support to Pakistan‘s favorite Afghan resistance faction so-called Haqqani network on top. US aired through informal and formal diplomatic channels to avoid a full confrontation as US depended on Pakistan for its tactical and strategic options in Afghanistan. However, Western media and semi-official channels consistently focused on skepticism about Pakistan‘s role on war on terrorism. A statement by US former Joint Chief of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen reflects this doubt in which he said that ―Pakistan‘s intelligence agency supports Haqqani network, based in Pakistan‘s tribal areas, as a way to extend Pakistani influence in Afghanistan Admiral Mullen made clear that he believed that the support extended to increasingly high-profile attacks in Afghanistan aimed directly at the United States.‘ (NYT, Asia Pacific, 2011). Bruce Riddle, a former CIA officer wrote in ‗Newsweek, Pakistan’ ‗…a Jihadi take over in Pakistan is not imminent, but if it happens it will be a global game changer.‘ (Riedel, 2011). In a new book by Carlotta Gall, a UK journalist and a New York Times reporter has brought to the fore focus on Pakistan. Its provoking title, ‗‗the wrong enemy: The America in Afghanistan 2001-2014‘ is enough to understand what is going to be the future security focus of US and the other NATO allies. The allegations like she writes: ―…The first years, Afghanistan was completely at peace. But slowly the Taliban started coming back and foreign fighters also started crossing the border and attacking American troops. ... We on the ground could see that the problem was coming from across the border and, over the decade, it just escalated into a huge, intractable problem that now Afghanistan still faces, of a state-sponsored insurgency from their neighboring country.‖ (Ahmad A. , 2014). In a nutshell, she concludes, ―Pakistan, not Afghanistan, has been the true enemy,‖ (Times, 2014).
Carlotta Gall view is misleading as after Soviet withdrawal a major phase of fighting came to an end and during the time of consolidation and to refit there had to be a lull. US achieved their objective of defeating USSR but what Mujahideen had in aim was still not realized. It proved with the time after Soviet withdrawal that the boggy of Jihad was just for the consumption of US proxies or Mujahedeen to fight with an overall US strategic control.
142 Mujahedeen, Afghans or tribal‘s aim, perspective and concept of Jihad was different than the strategic aim of the US. After this diversion on the part of Mujahedeen and US interest and with the strategic US pause in Afghanistan, Mujahedeen struggled to take direct control of Afghanistan. As a natural consequence of a post unconventional victory, infighting started between Mujahedeen factions. The strongest among them allied with Al-Qaeda and Osama Bin Laden succeeded to disliking of US and other Western nations as they posed an antithesis to American strategic designs. Mujahedeen infrastructure was dismantled by US as all the ammunition reservoirs meant to supply them war logistics against Soviet occupiers were mysteriously blown one by one very soon after Geneva accord. In a not too publicized understanding US and withdrawing Soviets, the pro-Soviet government was made strong by Soviet arms Supply. (Yousaf, 1992). What is pertinent to this study is the Security dilemma Pakistan is facing due to great games of the powerful international players.
4.8.3: Strategy of Enemy Formation: The US Strategic Model In new emerging international scene US became the sole unchallenged economic and military power. However, normative and religious forces emerged as non-state actors and next perceived threat by the West after communism. Pakistan was a strategic field for the NATO nations‘ game plans to contain ideological and physical advances of their communist opponents and now a target itself with shift of the West from communism to focus on Islam as rival force in international arena. This is second phase of Western consolidation in the world affairs after the world wars. The first phase culminated with the demise of USSR and a new world order with an unchallenged US military might and its nexus with European nations and its confrontation with Islam. The US theme of Jihad tactically played up to recruit local resistance against communists became a redundant political theme after the demise of USSR. This change of posture by US proved politically abrasive to moral model that converted semi-state controlled religious proxy groups to non-state actors. Defeating former USSR through the ethos of morality and faith the nations professing power model re- characterized the same motivation as terrorism, a vivid example of realist somersault compatible to their national interest. This is a typical case of remolding of scenario fitting into US security cultures through identity formation (others vs We) by forming a formation of ‗others‘ like ‗Fascism and communism in the twentieth century; and Islamic after
143 September 11, 2001 as perpetrators of terrorism to claim a ‗we‘ formation that is an alliance to fight it like war on Terrorism (Sperling, 2010).
US reliance on realist theory and concepts made it easy to switch over; expediently thus Jihad replaced terrorism as political theme. This entailed an inherent dichotomy for moralist right for whom it was change of variable of an international actor and not the situation itself as they saw their territories still occupied for them became a cause based the concept of Jihad according to their religious beliefs comparable to just war concept.
The interest that made them united against a common enemy relegated their relations to another cycle of conflict in absence of the same. The lesson emerging out of this situation brings us to the point that alliance with divergent theoretical practices with convergent interest will result in yet another cycle of confrontation. It is due to these realities that Pakistan found itself trapped between two theoretical perspectives part of each it professed and denied thus lacked resonance on either part. It is due to the same dichotomous reason that Pakistan‘s international relations response manifests expediency than a correct foreign policy direction to realize national interest that can help beef up its security parameters. Pakistan‘s expediency in foreign affairs that started right from the onset has rather increased its security liabilities.
Theoretical perspective and policy making are related to national power. Ideal Policies cannot be implemented without the full compliments of power. The nation states in contemporary international political framework do not enjoy classic sense of sovereignty. Pakistan doesn‘t enshrine rigidly with any kind of theoretical perspective to draw elements of its foreign policy. The transient approach leaves a choice of band wagon style in international politics due to deficient leverage and lack of a coherent national power.
There is another model that makes a combination of religious and Realist political perspectives. In the case of Israel; Western nations support it‘s a religious state.
―Most American Jews feel at least some emotional attachment to Israel, and many have visited the Jewish state. Four-in-ten believe Israel was given to the Jewish people by God, a belief that is held by roughly eight-in-ten Orthodox Jews.‖ (PewResearchCenter, 2013).
144 Whereas they undermine Islamic states with Muslim identity. Faith and divine approach for establishing a state is played up in case of Israel to advance interest of all the Western stakeholders. On the other hand in the same breath most of the Western nations make Islamic identity in veiled statements; as a destructive and a motivation for terrorism justifying their own interventionist strategies that invite retaliation. According to PEW Research Center Survey:
―Americans view more warmly the seven other religious groups mentioned in the survey (Jews, Catholics, mainline Protestants, evangelical Christians, Buddhists, Hindus and Mormons).…most Americans (57%) believe there is a lot of discrimination against Muslims in the US today,… Majorities in Hungary, Italy, Poland and Greece say they view Muslims unfavorably, while negative attitudes toward Muslims are much less common in France, Germany, the United Kingdom and elsewhere in Northern and Western Europe. People who place themselves on the right side of the ideological scale are much more likely than those on the left to see Muslims negatively.‖ (Lipka, 2017).
Pakistan is among the largest Muslim majority states in the world therefore, this negative trend impacts social and religious sensibility that also impacts on its security. Such a negative trending against Muslims leads to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
The classical concept of evil and good has been made more abstract in this case. Western states exploiting interfaith divide between Islam and the Judaism in their favor. Elsewhere this clash is telescoped to varying societal divides to create chaos in target region to weaken it internally to secure a good diplomatic leverage to exploit and tame nations, leading to control them better. It descended weaker nations, slowly and gradually, in to instability, chaos and Security Dilemma. Pakistan has a political and ideological similarity with Israel with regard to its creation. There is nothing more than other religions which can outcast faith of Islam as the worst. Pakistan and other Islamic states have been failed to project the reality. However; a renowned scholar on comparative religions opines in an interview that,
―Terrorism has nothing to do with Muhammad, any more than the Crusades had anything to do with Jesus. There is nothing in the Islam that is more violent than Christianity. All religions have been violent, including Christianity. There was nothing in the Muslim world like antisemitism: that is an import of the modern period‖ (Thooft, 2015).
145 Pakistan is situated on the juncture of important strategic regions opening up to Central Asia, Middle East, China, Russia, Iran and India. The ground realities suggest that Pakistan has failed to fathom a sound strategic base to enhance its security on both at regional and international level that makes it security problem complex. A classic ideological approach is possible with political and material independence and a predominant national power that was reflected in the Muslim Empires of the previous years but what needs to be projected to the need of modern times. Pakistan has been designed with an ideological tag within framework of nation states and concepts of collective security under the United Nations umbrella. That sets an international relations obligation to step in with rest of the global vision of the modern political world. Deviation from the modern international relations charter enforced by a few powerful states would render it to confront Security Dilemma.
4.8.4: The US Covert Operational Network in Pakistan? United States also made a shift but it was based on permanent interests and expedient friendship that implied change of means for foreign policy objectives thus US is considered a shaky and not too reliable a friend. However, tactically it used the Machiavellian tip to leave a force of privates to consolidate and cop with the impending chaos or to defend against reprisal. The ‗Xe Services‘ a private force popularly known as ‗Black Water‘ phenomena emits from this Machiavellian concept of establishing writ of the king through personal military legion. An investigation by Pakistan daily ‗The Nation‘ in a report revealed about the secret operations of a private security company in Pakistan and Afghanistan:
―It wouldn‘t surprise me because we‘ve outsourced nearly everything,‖ said Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, who served as Secretary of State Colin Powell‘s chief of staff from 2002 to 2005, when told of Blackwater‘s role in Pakistan.‖ (Scahill, us-war-Pakistan, 2009)
Sustaining an occupation or favorable ruling elite installed as local clients of the foreign power as agents of their political interest is also not akin to US national security. This modern trend has made the security much engrossed and critical. Foreign intrusion based on Western interest seems the major cause of Pakistan‘s political and state fragilities threatening security.
The history of change of regimes makes a model in evidence. The major divisions of player can be categorized in major threes. First, the founding fathers of Pakistan who wielded
146 greater influence in the initial days of independence with Muhammad Ali Jinnah and Liaqat Ali Khan on the top. The founding party All India Muslim League had predominantly rightist leanings. This initial political setup was gradually replaced by the US and the West leaning ruling elite starting from then Prime Minister Muhammad Ali Bogra. Secondly the legacy of bureaucratic order was also disposed to the Western norms and practices owing to their educational background, lifestyle and bureaucratic orientation. Thirdly, but which proved to be most dynamic and influential class was military which was the outcome of tensions between above two that set the precedent for military interventions. Military had the same leanings that of bureaucratic order but its dependence on the West and the US for military hardware factored in such an alignment.
After the death of its founder leader, Muhammad Ali Jinnah, Liaqat Ali Khan became prime minister who could not firmly decide with whom to align as a state. An abrupt switch from USSR to USA visit showed its initial leanings which was disrupted by his killing on 5th October, 1951. This remains intriguing phenomena instrumental in demise and their replacement of the most of Pakistani ruling elite suspected of blocking Western political game play. This is reflected in the popular perception and conspiracy inspired thinking with some clues to the evidence that the assassination of Liaqat Ali Khan and Pakistan‘s ex- Foreign and Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto was a consequence for perusing anti-West interest, as was manifested in their actions.
Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto, former Prime Minister of Pakistan was perceived by the Western powers to instigate Middle Eastern oil embargo and Liaqat Ali Khan‘s tilt towards socialist block were important anti-Western interest indicators. These factors of foreign intriguing blocked consolidation process for Pakistan as a state right on the onset of its creation as her not so firm diplomatic initiatives. Pakistan since then remained in doldrums unable to steer a set direction to determine foreign policy and security strategies. It leads to a conclusion that without a coherent and dedicated leadership and political order a sound policy making is not possible. At least two of such leadership eliminations are comparatively clearly reveal the modus operandi of the US covert operations one Liaqat Ali Khan killing and second former President of Pakistan General Zia ul Haq, who toppled the government of former Pakistan
147 Prime Minister Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and later hanged him too, was himself killed in an air crash near Bahawalpur, Pakistan.
The leaked US documents reveal that CIA hired an Afghan to assassinate Liaqat Ali Khan. Content of a document declassified by the US state department revealed, ―Washington contacted the US Embassy in Kabul, offering Zahir Shah to search an assassin for Khan and in return they will ensure Pashtunistan‘s freedom.‖ (pt, 2015). They mystery of former dictator General Zia Ul Haq remains shrouded with strong pointers to US intelligence agency‘s working.
All the rest of Pakistani diplomatic alignment was affiliated with USA that gradually grew complex with emergence of religious movements and a sense of unity with the broader Muslim causes at people‘s and to some extent at government level. Ian Talbot an expert of Subcontinental affairs asserts ―Their divisions increasingly crystallized around whether Pakistan should persue a pan Islamic foreign policy or enter a cold war driven regional defense organization sponsored by the USA.‖ (Ian, 2009). The lack of resonance to both conservative and the modern political order made the space for cited covert and coercive US policy which however; permeates the US ‗Realist‘ policy framework where morals have less to do with the realization of US national interest. This make a factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma,
The core government and administrative character however remain committed to the modern and secular colonial tradition of Raj‘s legacy as a consequence of social engineering through highly intrusive British education system for its colonies designed to tame the middle class and setting up an intermediary class system to sustain the Raj. The same model with some modern time adjustments was adopted by the US and Western governments when it got proactive in region after cold war ended in early 90s. It could not have been possible without the help of governments in Pakistan who were highly dependent on the US and the West for infrastructural development.
4.8.5: Contemporary Political Views and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma Another dimension that can impact Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma are widely influencing views by renowned Historian and Political thinkers ‗The End of History‘ by Francis
148 Fukuyama (1989) and ‗Clash of Civilization‘ by [Samuel] Huntington (1993). The implication for Pakistan is not direct as state but as one of the largest part of the Muslim entity that has formed in to a civilization. This can impact negatively on the relations between different civilizations and can lead to ideological misperceptions.
Pakistan is one of the largest populated Muslim country to bear the brunt of such a reflex. William Pfaff, (Pfaff, 2010) is critical of Huntington views that, ‗…Next ‗world war‘ would be not a clash of states but of civilizations.‘ He speculates example of, ‗…A war between Western and Islamic civilizations for global domination‘. It is though wrong perspective as he rebuts this with a strong reasoning and argument that, ‗The objective of the Islamist movement are to purify Islam and the practices of Muslims and remove Western influence, not to conquer West‘ Pfaff goes on to explain Islamic resistance saying, ‗Islamic world has always considered itself a spiritual community under religious leadership, when this community is threatened, it generates political resistance.‘ (p.136.). The contemporary political environment are all the more relevant as pan Islamism obligations are shared more visibly and widely. This has been manifested in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria (ongoing civil war, 2014) that people from all over the Muslim world take part beyond any other identity but faith. This is what creates a phobia and panic in antagonistic NATO powers and as a response leads to a Security Dilemma for the Muslim world in general and for Pakistan in particular. Pakistan is among the important and prominent Muslim countries and overtly professes pan Islamism, claiming every Muslims cause to contest in international arena. It is said that when crusades were happening the rest of the world was not aware. It was latter part of history that people came to know about crusades through literature and historical narrative. It is on the same model that the new political and historical analysis can lead to aggravate Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma in an increasingly global proactive military environment.
This theory if has not invented the clash itself but set the ideas for such a contest.
4.9: Dependence: Impact on Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Dependence is another factor that has compromised elements of Pakistan‘s National Security. Right at the onset Pakistan, due to weak infrastructure and resources became dependent on foreign aid and military support. It had nothing in exchange but to offer itself as an ally of
149 Western bloc with US in lead against communist USSR. Pakistan‘s part as an ally against communism was incompatible with capability and capacity of Pakistan.
Figure-4: US Aid to Pakistan
Source: US overseas Loans and Grants
The approach to be part of Western alliance was an indirect measure for security that could not ensure Pakistan‘s national interest. Pakistan‘s political and military leadership contended with Pakistan‘s status in international politics as a proxy state. This belittles Pakistan‘s status as a valued international political entity as is the fate of a proxy in the international realm. The endeavor to become part of the West and US alliance resulted in regional bitterness and animosity. India at the same time chose to be non-aligned and neutral. Indian international approach was more mature as it did not pledge declared support to USSR or USA that saved it from the belligerent onslaught in case it was part of either of the alliances. India however, had a propensity towards USSR. It was not possible for USA to ignore India owing to its strategic and market volume. On the contrary Pakistan chose to a party to USA and former USSR confrontation and became an outpost for the US and the Western interests thus the first to bear the brunt in case of any confrontation as fact well proved on basis of evidence
150 of last two decades starting from 1980. Pakistan‘s unchartered foreign policy proved to be disastrous and it was devoid of well deliberated vetting.30
There are multiple factors leading to this deficiency in making a good security strategy. The lack of think tanks, system of debate and analysis and a foreign policy deficient of theoretical seasoning has not yielded positively in case of Pakistan. Compared to world intellectual input to rightly orientate the policy makers, Pakistan situation is too poor in this regard.
Figure 5: Number Think Tanks
Source: dawn.com
Pakistan has been observed exercising wider range of popular moral, religious and secular mix in its security response. From Jihad rhetoric to switching to aligning with secular and immoral policies have been instances of ambiguous and a clueless strategy that proved to be inherently dichotomist. From participating in US-sponsored Afghan Jihad against former USSR to a U-turn on a single telephone call from the US President bring out a lesson that Pakistan did not stand firmly on its diplomatic grounds and this act fed to its Security Dilemma. Now it is trapped between Taliban, drones, and shadowy infiltrators who kill, bomb, blast, and drone freely. Pakistan‘s mounting military losses are an indicator of poor morale of its armed forces who are not clear about the cause they are dying for. The inherent contradiction in fighting Jihad and terrorism based on diabolical political perspective and conceptual base; makes a worst case scenario. Apparently US formation theme of terrorist
30 Op cit
151 and war against it has been acquiesced to remain part of US alliance for military and economic aid and fear of threats to be sent back to Stone Age. Carrot and stick has less been seen working so effectively than in case of Pakistan. For a clear International Relation perspectives system of think forums should be evolved and academia should be encouraged to participate, a thing Pakistan society lacks which leaves most of International Relation working out of the grasp of leadership and at the general people level.
4.9.1: National Character as an External Factor Impacting Pakistan’s Security Dilemma National character is seasoned in generational normative behavior that becomes a phenomenal identity. Nations go through wars, crises and other evolutionary experiences and manifest certain character traits rapidly which becomes iconic of their phenomenal identity. These idiosyncrasies are directly proportionate to the strategic culture of the nations which impacts the responding strategy of confronting rivals. The West as a whole is materialistic and world goes to grab resources anywhere in the world. This is proven fact. India was contested by French, Portuguese, Spain and last of all the Great Britain. Same model we see in the tussles of the Western nations in the making of the USA. Within their own arena they have specific national characters like Morgenthau has given example in his book, ‗Politics Among Nations‘, National Character never fails to influence National Power…and supports its policies…molds public opinion‖, he further elaborates specific national characters of major International actors like, ― …‘the elementary force and persistence‘ of the Russians, the individual initiative and inventiveness of the Americans, the undogmatic common sense of British, the discipline and thoroughness of Germans‖ (Hans.J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations , 1991 (Sixth Eddition)) p.151.
The question is how one is led to form cohesive response reflecting the strength of national character. Is it biological or constructive in form? Many studies analyze that the environment impacts behavior that when seasons in ages becomes a collective phenomenal character of a nation. The crux to take into account national character is to adjust to the same to create the capacity to respond. Pakistan‘s national character cannot be assessed on the classic scale like Germans or Japanese due to diversified nature of its formation. Pakistan is conglomerate of sedentary and mobile communities who came with invaders in the Subcontinent from North
152 with the exception of Arabs who came from both sides North and South. So it has a mix trending in making and manifesting the national character. The West uses these distinct traits to their advantage who boast of bravery become their proxies and the communities living in plains with natural love for land ownership are tamed and controlled through revenue department which is now famously identified with the popular reference to ‗Patwari culture31‘ mean taming society through influence of Patwari32, a low tier revenue clerk who is instrumental in manipulation of revenue and land ownership and records set since the time of British rule in the sub-continent. This character of Pakistani society has been developed from land owning passions to becoming influential elite some of whom become industrialists and top businessmen with close official collaboration traded with their political loyalty.
The same elite class of landlords and businessmen when becomes rulers their appeasing character becomes a national security threat as they become a sellout of national interest and a pawn that is well played up in the great strategic games of powerful nations who use them. Subcontinent and Pakistani history is replete with such examples. The government decision making process has been complacent. From presenting Pakistan as front line state against Western interest at the start of cold war to ambiguous approval of US unmanned aerial vehicle (Drone) bombing in FATA confirms this fact.
Indian involvement in Afghanistan and its military collaboration with the present Afghanistan has contributed seriously to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan ambassador to UN, Maliha Lodhi in an article in Sunday time writes,
―During the Russian occupation of Afghanistan, India's support for Russian-backed Communist regimes was, by and large, limited to diplomatic and political backing. But at present, India has decided to engage in the security sector in Afghanistan and sought to position itself as a military ally of Kabul (Lodhi, 2017).
This goes beyond training as the evidence of Afghan intelligence and Indian RAW nexus have been found in many sabotage incidents inside Pakistan. The latest episode at the close of this study happened in Army Public School (APS)‘s minor school children killing. The
31 This is a social gossip reference most talk in social circles and on social media 32 Revenue Record keeper of lands and properties.
153 transcripts of the Terrorists‘ telecommunication were shown to Kabul government as an evidence.
4.9.2: Pakistani Leadership and US National Security Objectives What America expects from Pakistani leadership civil or military? Kissinger clearly lists this, control of nuclear weapons, counterterrorism cooperation and resistance to Islamists radicalism. Proceeding to set these objectives he writes, ―In dealing with emerging Pakistani leadership, American policy should focus on national security objectives.‖ Kissinger‘s views emphasis on realization of US National Security Objectives. Kissinger goes on to predict consequences in case of failure to achieve these objectives and says, ―If that effort fails, main countries will be affected and, perhaps more immediately, Pakistan‘s stability should not be viewed as an exclusively American Challenge.‖ The US shift after the end of cold war diverging with Pakistan‘s national interest is one of such example.
The incident of Salala Army post in Mohmand Agency in FATA on 26 November, 2011 confirm the application of this view when US attacked it and killed 25 Pakistani soldiers in retaliation to Pakistani soldiers‘ security action to obstruct a suspicious military movement near Pakistan-Afghanistan borders. (Salman Masood, 2011). This was a major military escalation between Pakistan and US militaries.
US covert action in Abbottabad on May 2, 2011 to kill or capture Osama Bin Laden without even informing the Pakistani side. (Brown, 2012) US view is categorical on common security approach with its allies. Mentioning particularly in the Pakistani context the American view is stipulated through their veteran diplomat Kissinger, ―Common approaches on the security issues are necessary, including an end of ambiguity towards terrorist enclaves.‖ This clause of the article refers to FATA which US considers is a terrorists‘ enclave and against which Pakistan must take action as US deems it a threat to its troops in Afghanistan.
In 2008, Pakistan‘s fourth military ruler General Pervez Musharraf resigned. Pakistan People‘s Party came into power after the London Charter of Democracy (2006) was signed and both Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif returned to Pakistan from exile. Benazir Bhutto was killed in an assassination attack in comeback procession and Pakistan People‘s Party‘s
154 Yousaf Raza Gillani became Prime Minister and later Asif Ali Zardari got himself elected as the President. This shift to start of civilian rule and the end of military dictatorship has been explained as hinted in the referred article of Henry A. Kissinger. Why Musharraf was sent home? The reply is right in the same article which was published in March 2008, ―The future of President Musharraf will undoubtedly become a major issue as the potential coalition partners seek his removal.‖ (Kissinger H. , 2008).
This hints at something that was agreed in the Charter of Democracy in May 2006 and by 2008 the political scene in Pakistan changed altogether. Musharraf gone Benazir killed and first turn of Zardari‘s PPP ended completing full term and Nawaz Sharif became Prime Minister for the third time with all the major criminal and other cases ended or got decreed in his favors. The part of civil-military relationship got special mention with regard to steps about full civilian control of ISI and the appointment of Chief of Staffs and abolition of National Security Council and appointment of judges by the chief executive. One could clearly make out a full moving hand pulling the string behind the curtain although, measure seemed needed apparently. (Dawn, Text of the Charter of Democracy , 2006)
Conflating the American political manipulations with Pakistan‘s internal political changes, after signing of Charter of Democracy in May 2006 and Henry Kissinger‘s analysis in his article shapes a political model where military is sidelined to an extent, democracy is being tolerated with all its faults of corruption and not so good governance as it is serving the American national interest and the new civilian governments in Pakistan are trying hard to off balance the military predominance in foreign and internal affairs. Military or civilian government aside, a question arises that any proactive strategic divergence with the international power that be, can threaten Pakistan internally or externally and what Pakistan can do to avoid a dilemma in making?
Henry A. Kissinger characterizes military and civilian elite in these words, ―The difference between feudal leaders who wear uniforms and those in civilian‘s clothes is in their constituencies, not in their commitment to a pluralistic process as we understand it.‖ Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma is relative to this fault line indicated by Henry A. Kissinger as this can lead to foreign intrigue in their interest for example they can deal with one person at the cost of the whole nation. (Kissinger H. , 2008)
155 4.9.3: Political and Religious Interpretations and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma After the events of 9 September, 2001, there has emerged another addition of a force that represents a non-state power. Non-state actors are now a reality. This has become an important international relations and national security factor. It is devoid of state to state level apparatus thus complex and more threatening to security of the nations in present environment notwithstanding justification of cause and pursues. The new model of resistance shows that where state undermines faith and normative values at individual level, people themselves take over to defend it. The factor of non-state actors has a history to it, but of late it is mostly identified with the Muslim faith. The wars of physically annihilations have been transformed into an ideological and a war based on modern political, conservative values and religious absolute belief. Social engineering aims at projecting just cause and terrorism with same measuring yard, whereas defining these depends on normative and local values, religious, beliefs, and divergent political environment and perceptions nurtured in divided civilizations and societal perspectives.
The West is in a state of Islam phobia that is creating security threats in the host country for Muslim migrants which has a negative effect back home where people perceive not so good image of the Christian or the Western world. These feelings ultimately create hatred, chaos and uncertainty leading to security dilemma. Islamophobia is defined as:
―An exaggerated fear, hatred, and hostility toward Islam and Muslims that is perpetuated by negative stereotypes resulting in bias, discrimination, and the marginalization and exclusion of Muslims from social, political, and civic life.‖ (GALLUP).
156 Figure 6: Americans Prejudice against Muslims
Source: GALLUP
When applied to case of Pakistan, normative model is pervasively manifested at popular level and impacts state response in international relations. Pakistan was cut from greater mass of Subcontinent on the ideology of faith. It singled out itself as a separate state with the Muslim identity, divorcing itself from greater mass and markets of Subcontinent. The greater mass of geography and population plays a vital role in security of a nation. Pakistan sacrificed both in favor of its religious ideology. State of Israel is another example of foundation upon religious ideology. The creation of Israel is also based on the faith and divine precepts. Ex-Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf drew comparisons of similarities between Pakistan and Israel and was strong supporter of recognizing Israel however; he succumbed to pressure from religion-political parties. In an interview the former Pakistan President General (r) Pervez Musharraf said,
157 ―Pakistan has to keep demanding the resolution of the Palestinian dispute ... [but] Pakistan also needs to keep readjusting its diplomatic stand toward Israel based on the mere fact that it exists and is not going away." (Danna Harman, 2012)
US realist policy implications don‘t regard moral aspect of religious considerations that has become an accepted norm of their strategic culture. Judeo-Christian relations have more bitter interfaith history and difference but these considerations don‘t hinder strategic partnership among US, the West and Israel. However, both maintain their religious stance permeating their political and international relations and have shared their common interest to redirect their mutual hate at the common rival, Islam. It is possible due to converging interests, balance of political, economic, corporate and to a considerable extent military power. Jews maintain this strategic balance with its diaspora across the world as a whole and in US and Western sphere specifically. Pakistan in comparison lacks these elements of political parity. With such asymmetrical realist and moral based political conditions, Pakistan‘s security is increasingly threatened resulting in widespread terrorism, instability and Security Dilemma. The international power politics intrigues and pressures compounded with its policy and ideological inconsistencies have resulted in internal chaos, compromising sovereignty that has left little diplomatic space for making independent foreign policies. One important factor that adds to Pakistani predicament at the state level is that it is playing a role of buffer between internal loathing of modern ideological influx and external realist international political preponderance. The power deficient, limited military capability and inevitably interdependence creates a classic state of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
4.9.4: Can a Regional IR Approach Overcome Pakistan’s Security Dilemma? Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma aggravated due to its ambiguous international relation‘s approach. It could not determine whether to anchor its position first in its own region or overseas. Pakistan‘s former Director General of Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) while giving a talk at a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Moscow Centre forum, gave presented this view:
―Pakistan, Iran, China, India, Afghanistan, and Russia must develop their relations by remembering and acting on historical traditions, because these countries are historically connected with one another, Durrani said. He added that these countries should make use of international regional organizations, like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation and the Shanghai Cooperation
158 Organization…In Durrani‘s opinion, keeping and establishing security in the region is not an American interest‖. (Asad Durrani, 2012).
India diplomatically cultivated first in the region and later beyond that i.e. Non-Aligned Movement. Pakistan preferred Western military alliances due to its inherent military and infrastructural deficiencies which could only be fulfilled with the Western aid. Pakistan achieved the objective of restructuring it Armed Forces at the cost of isolated belligerence in the region, causing Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. It was only China due her sore relations with India that she became closer to Pakistan as a strategic option. China at that time was in the process of fresh revolutionary chaos and settlement.
There are two approaches to international relations. Regional approach is to integrate economic and security affairs and might widen its scope to other social and political spheres. Beyond region and a wider approach is based on multilateralism that extends the scope of international relations beyond a certain geographical sphere. A regional approach works better in synergizing contiguous states closer to each other. In adopting regional approach, a state can have a better leverage and becomes less dependent beyond its region. A regional approach thus proves better as it enhances security and decreases dependence to a greater extent. The regional dynamics of sharing trade and joint strategies is a power multiplier. In a region a weak state is not singled out and is defended by friendly regional state as it is psychologically deemed a matter of mutual gains and any threat is thus considered posed to all. In the case of a conflict within a region a negative trend starts which is tantamount to the very state that indulges in it and in a wider circle proves a security setback for the region. In such a situation, conflicting regional states try to depend on friends outside the region as countervailing ally. The outside region overtures results in weakening regional partnership and shifts control to a foreign state by depending on it for letting down any regional entity. Enhancing regional power results in regional harmony would have gained much more in terms of economic prosperity and better security.
A divided region is the best bate for external powers to manipulate and exploit states within it. Pakistan lives in a disharmonious and not too favorable regional environment. Out of its five neighbors it enjoys best friendships with just one, China. Except China, all other neighbors have a varying level of skeptical relations that ranges from unsatisfactory to bitter.
159 This is not very favorable international relations situation which can have an adverse bearing on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. India on the other hand has been a successful regional player. It exerts considerable influence in the international arena owing to its regional influence. The concept of regional amicability has given it much advantage over Pakistan. India is the best reliable friend of Afghanistan which is Pakistan‘s next door neighbor. Despite the fact that it routes it‘s logistics through Pakistan for huge projects India is implementing in Afghanistan due to good friendly and trusted relations. Pakistan is just four hour from its North Western province but does not enjoy confidence and good relation with Afghanistan a factor that has contributed to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The Indian Afghanistan intelligence nexus and their involvement in coordinating sabotage attacks in Pakistan support this argument. . According to a recent poll most of the Afghans deem Pakistan responsible of its problems and instability. Pakistan has been seen wanting to address this aspect as it has failed in the absence of any viable foreign policy strategy. Not so good regional relations are also one of the major factors that have caused a state of Security Dilemma for Pakistan. It has been seen in the case of Gulf War I and II and later in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq that despite some disagreements on use of force NATO went ahead with its military plans and resolved such issues at the regional level on NATO and EU forums. The International Relations‘ disregarding regional coherence invites spiraling completions within the region to become client of out of the region powers to countervail each other within the region, escalating conflicts between them. This has become a model in contemporary power politics.
4.9.5: Low Intensity Conflict: War at the Doorstep Low Intensity Conflict (LIC) has become a military imperative in present security environment in the wake of widening of securitization that range from geographical security to matters like global environment. The increased imbalance in military power of the world nations, economic interdependence, technological advancement and deterring military tools like advanced military technology and revolution in arms, and above all the nuclear deterrence Chemical and Biological warfare has shifted war strategies from an all-out war to perpetual coercive piecemeal minor operations to diplomacy as part of LIC.
160 LIC has too many variables it includes all forms of asymmetrical and unconventional warfare like insurgency, counterinsurgency, terrorism, guerrilla warfare among the most salient the phenomenon of non-state actors globally; has become increasingly an alternative to conventional wars. LIC involves wider engagements that have shifted from battlefields to directly engaging the people, cities and streets impacting negatively on military capabilities resulting in piecemeal internal law and order employments that spare fewer bayonets when national security is threatened conventionally. This impacts the whole social fabric of the object countries drive public pressure to herd a nation in a desired policy shift. However, it facilitates flexible threshold that saves belligerent states from an all-out war.
LIC is politically viable option for use of force in a clandestine manner avoiding a full scale war, a cushion between all-out and complacent postures. It entails an inherent element of denial to circumvent international law to act in comparative ease. It is aimed at acquiring diplomatic leverage by coercive means to change the will of subjected entity. It proactively targets social segments and groups who acts in defiance thus engages and neutralizes all segments of society as a whole indirectly complimenting threat.
False flag attacks are part of LIC functionality for example staging bomb blasts and sabotage acts to create a bad impression about a certain terrorist‘s entity, state or group for political mileage. ―A US Congressional committee admitted that – as part of its ―Cointelpro‖ campaign – the FBI had used many provocateurs in the 1950s through 1970s to carry out violent acts and falsely blame them on political activists.‖ (Washingtonblog, 2015). LIC actions initiated by state are direct impingement on the collective will of the belligerent state or group or non-state actors and other militant echelons and is proportionately lethal when done by the non-state militant groups and actors against a the state.
The Pakistan‘s present circumstances are prone to present and future LIC engagements in the wake of increased threats of terrorism as a consequence of former Soviet Union‘s occupation of Afghanistan and resistance against it and later emergence of Taliban resistance against the US presence in Afghanistan and Pakistan‘s role as an ally in fighting communist Russia and as an ally in War on terrorism. Pakistan‘s unfavourable relations with Afghanistan, Iran, and an all-out belligerence with India on the issue of Jammu and Kashmir are not good omen and haunt Pakistan‘s security and engagement in LIC increasingly. Tensions permeate under
161 diversified human terrain where sub national, sectarian and ethnic tensions lead to LIC. Understanding Human Terrain System thus becomes important in counter terrorism in LIC operations. (Sims, 2015)
Change, discontent, poverty, violence, injustice, poverty, religious motivation and instability create an environment conducive to LIC. LIC seeks local and foreign political support to legitimate its actions especially in the case of non-state actors and by states in general. The legitimacy of such a force or a state counter action makes it eligible for engagement in a negotiated settlement when necessary as without it the international norms do not approve a body to be engaged for a negotiated settlement. It is therefore an imperative for a LIC operator to prove the legitimacy of its militant actions that depends on foreign or massive local support for a genuine and broader cause like resistance against foreign occupation and the counter claim of a state for war on terrorism. In the case of Taliban Pakistan‘s facilitation is sought to bring them on negotiation table as US directly deems it illegitimate to negotiate with Taliban. Pakistan on its own part was reluctant to avoid a supportive posture for Taliban. However, Hamid Karzai planned a visit in 2013 for setting up Taliban official office in Doha, Qatar (Telegraph, 2013) to anchor them for proposed negotiations, so for of no avail but which however shows the significance of the process. This makes it an important manifest of LIC.
Pakistani intelligence agencies followed such acts and have not made it public due to diplomatic niceties and to contain worsening of relations from the present level. But what can be assumed from reports appearing in the press and confirmed through informal sources prove the truth underlying such sabotage incidents. For example when Raymond David was caught he had certain contacts of people stationed in tribal areas and with whom he used to interact. Some of these CIA agents belonged to TTP the infamous tribal terrorist groups who operated under the guise of Taliban label and for anyone who could pay from Indian RAW, Afghanistan‘s National Directorate of Security, practically a sub branch of CIA. Authenticity to this observation on ground and press is partly confirmed by no less than the former Pakistani Chief of Army Staff Mirza Aslam Baig in an article that was published online in Eurasia Review, a Journal of analysis and news. It unfolded shocking revelations about the US lethal and security threatening act increasingly adopted and exported from war zones
162 where American intelligence operatives resorted to such lethal intelligence and covert working disregarding normal human life and targeting out of the lawful arena. The excerpt of the article reveals:
―Davis is somebody very important because of all the people, the President of United States, himself intervened, demanding that the Pakistan government must release him immediately on the grounds that Davis enjoyed diplomatic immunity and the Pakistani courts of justice could not try him for the cold- blooded murder of two Pakistanis… Obama lied, knowing fully well that Davis was no diplomat and enjoyed no immunity… The Black Water, agency has been operating in Pakistan since 2004... This agency also worked in Iraq and its gruesome activities have been testified by many writers and human rights activists… The Special Investigation Centre (SIC) was established in 2005… It is this agency which kidnapped hundreds of Pakistanis and handed them over to the CIA, killed and tortured many and carried out number of ‗terror attacks‘ to foment trouble and discredit the government by creating despondency amongst the people… Davis‘s true identity has been revealed by an American, named Robert Anderson, a CIA agent of the past… I was affected to carry-out a systematic assassination of people who were identified as not loyal to US goals. It was called the ‗Phoenix Programs‘ and eliminated an estimated 60,000 people across Indochina. We did an amazing amount of damage to the civilian infrastructure of the country and still lost the war… We were told if captured we were to ask for diplomatic immunity, if alive… How many Pakistanis have been assassinated, eliminated, kidnapped and dumped in the torture cells in USA, no one will ever know‖ (Baig, 2011).
4.9.6: China as Emerging Power Centre and its Impact on Pakistan’s Security Dilemma China is an emerging power, international political analyst like Joseph A. Nye, Jr. views USA , ― …Power relative to China‘s, much will depend on the uncertainties of future political change in China…Barring any political upheaval, in growth will almost certainly increase its relative strength vis-à-vis the United States. This will bring China closer to the United States in power resources, but it does not necessarily mean that China will surpass the United States as the most powerful country.‖ This relative increase in China‘s world status would benefit Pakistan as a counter weight. The CPEC mega project would further better Pakistan‘s regional position which is a good omen but at the same time Pakistan‘s future relations with USA. will have their due importance. Quoting British strategist Lawrence Freedman has not that the United States has ―two features which distinguish it from the dominant great power of the past: American power is based on alliances rather than colonies and is associated with an ideology that is flexible….Together they provide a core of
163 relationship and values to which American can return even after it has overextended itself‖ (Joseph A. Nye, November/December 2010).
Pakistan‘s relations with Russia and with any other regional country would strategically give it better security choices. Its dependence on USA will decrease that will give is more international space for self-reliance and better leverage. The foremost, Pakistan‘s relations with India remain a top priority resolving which would end the major part of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
4.10: Contemporary Political Views and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Another dimension that can impact Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma are widely influencing views by renowned Historian and Political thinkers ‗The End of History‘ by Francis Fukuyama (1989) and ‗Clash of Civilization‘ by [Samuel] Huntington (1993). The implication for Pakistan is not direct as state but as one of the largest part of the Muslim entity that has formed in to a civilization as it is influencing the Western thoughts and policies. While discussing this phenomenon in their book Jackson and Towle (2006) write in their Book, ‗Temptations of Power: The United States in Global Politics after 9/11 that:
―Whatever his own attitude to the phenomenon, Huntington‘s ideas have influenced those who believe that the United States must protect its own values in a sea of conflicting viewpoints. It underpins the principles which neoconservatives in particular wish to foster and provides some justification for the actions and goals of the US administration. Among President Bush‘s supporters, the Christian evangelist Franklin Graham was one of the prominent church leaders who denounced Islam and encouraged the Bush administration to overcome it‖ (Robert J. Jackson, 2006 , p. 22).
This can impact negatively on the relations between different civilizations and can lead to ideological misperceptions. Global historian Cemil Aydin of North Carolina University felt the effects of this these views as he witnessed in person. He said in an interview that:
―Before I finished my Ph.D., September 11 happened in America. It was my last year as a graduate student. I had a fellowship in a room at the Center for International Affairs at Harvard. And Samuel Huntington, the man who wrote about ―Clash of Civilizations,‖ had an office in that center situated just across my office. I was very struck by people who were interpreting September 11 in terms of clash of civilizations, as clash between Islam and the United States‘ Christianity. Suddenly, the debates I was hearing in the corridors of the Center for International Affairs and in the broader public seemed very
164 similar to idea of clash of civilizations I was writing about in the context of Pan-Islamist and Pan- Asian thought from 1905 to the 1920s or 1945‖ (Aladag, 2016).
Pakistan is one of the largest populated Muslim country to bear the brunt of such a reflex. William Pfaff, (Pfaff, 2010) is critical of Huntington views that, ‗…Next ‗world war‘ would be not a clash of states but of civilizations.‘ He speculates example of, ‗…A war between Western and Islamic civilizations for global domination‘. It is though wrong perspective as he rebuts this with a strong reasoning and argument that, ‗The objective of the Islamist movement are to purify Islam and the practices of Muslims and remove Western influence, not to conquer West‘ Pfaff goes on to explain Islamic resistance saying, ‗Islamic world has always considered itself a spiritual community under religious leadership, when this community is threatened, it generates political resistance.‘ (p.136.). The contemporary political environment are all the more relevant as pan Islamism obligations are shared more visibly and widely. This has been manifested in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria (ongoing civil war, 2014) that people from all over the Muslim world take part beyond any other identity but faith. This is what creates a phobia and panic in antagonistic NATO powers and as a response leads to a Security Dilemma for the Muslim world in general and for Pakistan in particular. Pakistan is among the important and prominent Muslim countries and overtly professes pan Islamism, claiming every Muslims cause to contest in international arena. It is said that when crusades were happening the rest of the world was not aware. It was latter part of history that people came to know about crusades through literature and historical narrative. It is on the same model that the new political and historical analysis can lead to aggravate Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma in an increasingly global proactive military environment.
4.11: Conclusion
Pakistan‘s geostrategic location makes it vulnerable to many intrigues and a central actor of International controversies. These controversies are catalyst to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan international relation is influenced by its rivalry with India. Pakistan settlement of issue with India can settle many of its predicaments. India and Pakistan should fast try to resolve mutual issue as both can become vulnerable to international power politick and political game plans. Pakistan needs to be aware of its surrounding and the changing world
165 trends in international politics and in step with fast global changes with firmness on its national interest vis a vis the prevailing international order. Pakistan need to improve international relations and the world also needs to stabilize Pakistan understanding its security concern and render help in resolving its chronic issue with India.
166 CHAPTER: 5
WAR ON TERRORISM: IMAPCT on PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA
5.1: Losses: Human/Life and Material
Pakistan has played major role as an international ally with NATO nations in the War against Terrorism. It has sacrificed in all respect i.e. people, economy, and peace. Pakistan has suffered the most as partner in the war on terrorism. In terms of human cost it lost between 60,000-80,000 people and more than $200 billion worth of economic loss that is still mounting. Its social fabric has been shattered and weakening state order has triggered latent threats from belligerent forces that have a chance to exploit from the chaotic conditions at hand.
Figure 7: Pakistan Civil-Military Causalities 2003-2016
2004, 863 2005, 648 2006, 1471 2003, 189 2007, 3598
2008, 6715
2009, 11704
2010, 7435 Total, 61213
2011, 6303
2012, 6211
2013, 5379
2016, 1519 2014, 5496 2015, 3682
Source: sapta.org
167 Here the figures clearly show a rise in casualties including civilians, military and resisting/terrorists‘ groups after the forces moved in FATA, Swat and elsewhere from 2004 onwards. Yet another increase in fatalities can be observed after operation in Swat (2009) and attack on Lal Masjid, Islamabad (2007). After the operation Zarbe Azab that started in 2014 the causality rate and terrorist activities came, nose down as can be seen in this chart. According to another source the casualties detail is as following:
Table-1: Casualties due to Terrorism in Pakistan
Civilians 48504
Journalists 45
Civilians killed by drones 416-951
Pakistani Security Forces 5,498
Militants 26,862
Total 81,325-81860
: Source: (The Express Tribune, 2015).
5.2: Drone Attacks and its Negative Impact
Drone attacks created a great amount of hatred against the Western aerial bombing on the targets; loosely considered or risking innocent civilian‘s lives as collateral damage. It created an atmosphere of scare and uncertainty that resulted in tribal discontent and insecurity. People could not sleep during night hearing to the buzz of drone hovering over their heads and followed by a big bang and cries of wounded and dying people. ‗The Economist’ gave a detailed account of drone attacks its toll and cited a clue about the complicity of Pakistan with US drone strike operations.
168 Figure-8: US Drone Attacks in Pakistan
Source: The Long War Journal
‗The Economist’cited (Washingtonpost, 2013) revealing that, ―Pakistan‘s complicity in the American covert strikes is no secret‖. Pakistan launched its drone strike with indigenous ‗Buraq‘ on a terrorist‘s hideout in North Waziristan. DG ISPR, Pakistan Army PR head, Major General (now Lieutenant General) Asim Bajwa tweeted to claim the drone strike, ―First ever use of Pak-made Burraq Drone … hit a terrorist compound in Shawal Valley killing 3 high profile terrorists…‖ (The Economist, 2015). However; support for drone attacks in Pakistan was just 17% conducted in a survey by Pew Research Center (Pew, Global Attitudes and Trends, 2012):
Figure 9: How People View Drone Attacks
Source: PEW Research Center
169 5.3: Economic Fallout
Economic security makes most dynamic factor of a peaceful, civilized, cultured and educated society. Post-World War-II economic scenario was well realized and the timely remedial measure and an all-out US financial aid famously known as ‗Marshal Plan‘ to European nations saved it from disintegration. Post-World War-II environment leads to perceptions of enhanced security which resulted in the formation of US-led Western military alliance, North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in April, 1949. West never looked back ever after which has been escalated to alliance‘s military interventions of, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Balkans, prominent among these. The cornerstone of this progress has been economic prosperity projected into military power. This power projection proved catalyst for the world peace and all the Security Dilemmas emitted out of such military formation that followed to countervail rivals state military response and actions in a manner of action and reaction. Smaller States like Pakistan bore the brunt of such military turmoil as the member of Western alliance since they were dependent on them in so many ways i.e. economically and militarily.
The NATO nations due to their internal disputes and long, civil wars that culminated into what formed modern sovereign state. These states became more conscious and disposed to extended securitization of the International Relations affairs. The West learnt lessons from their Wars and their security experiences and their response has been prompt and steady when it occurs. Pakistan has been seen devoid of this change and adjust dynamic from the lessons learnt .from its own security dilemma.
Barry Buzan was trailblazer33 of Copenhagen school of thought with Waever and De Wilde in a ground breaking work on security that says, ―Threats and vulnerabilities can arise in many different areas, military and non-military, but to count as security issues they have to meet strictly defined criteria that distinguishes them from the normal run of merely political. They have to be staged as existential threats to a referent object by a securitizing actor who thereby generates endorsement if emergency measures beyond rules that would otherwise
33 A man who make a new track in a wild country
170 bind.‖ (Hough, 2004). According to Buzan, ‗International Security Studies is, all that Western centralism entails‘. (Hansen) 2009.
Pakistan‘s eroding law and order situation due to resistance or terrorism movements has negatively impacted investment-shy business community local or foreign. There is a consistent brain drain and factory lockups. The cases of kidnapping of business community and tradesmen for ransom have increased manifold. Karachi the commercial hub of Pakistan is at the mercy of MQM who have the political and terrorizing capability to shut it down for any period and any time. Forthcoming Gwadar port project is strategically important is hostage to Baloch resistance and international intrigue due to its strategic value. Bloch Nationalist movement is reportedly armed and funded by Indian intelligence agency RAW. India‘s national security adviser Ajit Doval openly mentioned this intelligence theme plan in his speech quoted in chapter 4 of this study (Dailymotion, 2015).
Pakistan is heavily dependent on foreign funding and loans which are mounting without any monetary input to pay back through GDP growth. Pakistan faces a deficit balance of trade and payment. GDP growth rate has been on wavering curve with an overall downward trend, depending on law and order situation. The lowest it came down to 2% during FY 2009 (Ali, 2014) and presently is holding at 3.3% during FY 2014 (under Nawaz Sharif government) from 3.6% (During PPP government. (Tribune, Business, 2014). World Bank has noted that the modest improvement in growth ―was underpinned by external influences such as low oil prices and strong remittances while private and public investments continue to remain low.‖ (worldbank, 2016).
IMF has forecasted of a slow growth projected at 4% to 5% provided law and order remain under control. Pakistan needs to grow at the rate of an annual GDP growth of 7% that was nearest possible with an average of 6.4% under a military government of General Pervez Musharraf and has been the best ever. (Dawn, Archive, 2007 ). This law and order restrained growth show a visible impact on Pakistan economy. A steady growth is mandatory for upcoming increased population of young educated lot to adjust in national economy.
Pakistan received a total of $19.4 billion from US as war related reimbursement and during FY 2001-2014. (Costofwar, 2014). Pakistan Economic Survey reports a total of $102.51
171 billion or Rs 8,264.4 billion, a loss over 13 years, i.e. from 2001 to 2014. ―Pakistan suffered a mega economic loss of $28459.89 million from January 2011 to March 2013.‖ (dailytimes, 2014). This being a broader national view of terrorism outfall on economy the local analysis of such impact would give a clearer picture indeed. Pakistan‘s North-Western province including tribal strip adjoining Pakistan-Afghan border and areas under direct effects of terrorism, counterinsurgency and resistance had most adverse effects on local economy. This is significant as it is here that people are recruited and any adverse economic outfall can impact negatively due to the environment, prone to security instability and insurgency that result in counter measures by state. This results in putting a heavy toll on economy and development as the Security Dilemma blocks such developmental activities. It affects the overall lifestyle of the native or locals who can resort to join anti-state activities for readily available under chaotic environment by an intriguing entity or cause based resistance and as a natural consequence ultimately damages national growth when people find them abandoning conventional means of livelihood i.e. agriculture that make 80% of economy. ―National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC) shows that nearly 48 per cent of Pakistan‘s total fruit is produced by KP with Swat district being a major contributor… since 2007…According to the government of Pakistan estimates, the loss to agriculture alone amounts to PKR. 35 billion. The local media, citing Swat-based agricultural officials has reported that 55 to 70 per cent of the total fruit produce has gone waste.‖ (Ali, 2014).This was due to a terrorists and militant activities in the area and a major anti-terrorist operation by the Pakistani security forces; this however; is improving due to now permanent military presence that keeps a strict vigil on law and order situation there. How it is going to be maintained when military leaves, remains open to hopeful and haunting guess.
5.4: Prestige Loss in International Relations Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Pakistan used to be considered a useful Western ally during cold war era. It‘s weakening strategic value after the collapse of the Soviet Union and in the wake of post 9/11 anti- terrorism campaign in the eyes of NATO nations are now a bygone era. Pakistan is no more bracketed vis-a-vis India on equal footing with the changing international paradigm. This new International political trending is reflected the way Zalmay Khalilzad, a senior US diplomat recommends:
172 ―Recognize India as a great power both regional and globally so as to allow New Delhi to secure all the benefits in capabilities, prestige and status that would enable it to contain Pakistan‘s repeated challenges and deal with Beijing on an equal footing.‖ (Khalilzad, 2001).
Pakistan has lost leverage on Kashmir to a considerable extent its support for Kashmir resistance has become a shade of terrorism in the changing global environment. Pakistan‘s role in the war on terror is viewed with skepticism and dubious by the Western world. Pakistan has lost good standing as a credible and dependable state in the eyes of NATO nations, notwithstanding its right or wrong about how the West views Pakistan; its practical international implications are grave and impact Pakistan‘s security. The impression of duplicity in case of Pakistan does not characterize betrayal to partners in an alliance. Pakistan considers it as a strategic option and obligation to serve its national interest, without compromising on the war on terrorism. Balance of interest and crafting its strategy is a nature discourse in international norms.
5.5: Clash of National Interest and Response
The preponderance of Western nations on the international scene has, however, resulted in the clash of national interests. The former Pakistani president explained this clash of interests giving example of Indian influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan reaction in this regard General (Retired) Pervez Musharraf said, ―Pakistani spies in the Inter-Services Intelligence directorate (ISI) cultivated the Taliban after 2001 because Karzai‘s government was dominated by non-Pashtuns, the country‘s largest ethnic group and officials who were thought to favor India. ―Obviously we were looking for some groups to counter this Indian action against Pakistan,‖ he said. ―That is where the intelligence work comes in…definitely they were in contact, and they should be.‖ (The Guardian, 2015). He further elaborated that when the situation changed after arrival of the next Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani who is considered the last hope, so Pakistan as well welcomed and cooperated as he sent Afghan military cadets to Pakistan Military Academy for training. Karzai had sent Afghan cadets to India, where they were indoctrinated against Pakistan. ―[Ashraf] Ghani has not only suspended a planned weapons deal with India, but also diverted troops to fight against anti- Pakistan militant groups in eastern Afghanistan.‖, Musharraf said in the same interview. (ibid).
173 But what the Afghan President started with could not be sustained due to probably his not fully status and certain affairs not under his full control. With the US and Western forces and their strategic influence compounded with the Indian nexus has made it not possible for the improvement of the security situation. Ashraf Ghani has appointed an anti-Pakistan and pro- Indian former Afghan Intelligence Chief Amrullah Saleh as advisor on Afghanistan‘s security reforms. He is an ardent supporter of former Northern warlord and present Chief Executive of Afghanistan Abdullah Abdullah a known pro-India and anti-Pakistan group. His appointment has far reaching effects for Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma as ―The post aims to institutionalize meritocracy, improve leadership cadre, accelerate reforms in security sector and assess appointment of high-level officials in defense and security institutions, according to the presidential decree.‖ (1tvnews.af, 2017).
5.6: Shifts under Coercion and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Another factor is becoming part of today‘s political world where powerful state resort to unveiled coercive communication to change the behavior of target state. This model has been seen displayed in the case of Pakistan. This coercive practice entails elements of Security Dilemma as any miscalculation or taking position on a certain issue can result in serious conflict and consequences. A powerful state can shift its foreign policy stance by circumventing the committed position easily owing to might of its economic and military power and the political influence and leverage it wields. A weaker state can be coerced to a policy shift not deemed ideally suitable for its national interest. After the threatening Bush speech on 20th September, 2001, the US, after 9/11 conveyed clearly, "Either you are with the US, or you are with the terrorists… amounting nearly to the declaration of American hegemony… Under the hammer of the Bush doctrine, Pakistan was forced to relinquish its long-time support of the Taliban and its tolerance of al Qaeda," (Hirsh, 2002) .
Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states took a U-turn and abandoned its support to Taliban government in Afghanistan just after this communication. Besides, a wider gap in public opinion and government policy impacts internally led to political disharmony at the international level; this anomaly prominently exists in case of Pakistan. Pakistan was hassled to make a shift from its Afghan Jihad scenario to post-cold war US shift against Taliban. It
174 suited Pakistan to support Taliban government in Kabul (Kandahar) after US had left. Northern Alliance dominated government in Afghanistan which was predominantly influenced by India, would have been at a great strategic disadvantage for Pakistan. This shift was internally opined as duplicity and going back on pledges. This has been a horrific experience for FATA in Pakistan, where till 2004 there was no major military incursion. In 2004, Pakistan Army‘s regular military troops were dispatched to Waziristan to take on war on terrorism on the insistence of US. US remained insensitive to Pakistan‘s predicament as at home the people grudged Pakistan Army‘s military action. The Army action in Waziristan was projected through the narratives of good and bad Taliban. The operation in FATA proved chains of follow up operation against now real terrorists whom Pakistani government identified as planted anti-Pakistan Taliban groups. These anti-Pakistan Indian RAW and estranged Karzai government in Kabul, Pakistan thought are sponsoring these new creeds of Taliban who attacked Pakistan Army, destroyed schools, and stopped girls from going to school and bombed urban areas and civilians too. The anti-Taliban narrative was supported with fake video showing so-called Taliban beating a girl in Swat (The Express Tribune, 2016). Under the Taliban umbrella there were many fake groups working on the behest of foreign agencies with multiple aims that include from creating chaos in target states and to penetrate the resistance; against the NATO presence on their native land which they call occupation.
In the ‗Realist‘ world, power justifies that all what is implied for the realization of national interest. US did it with all the might at its disposal using all the resources to work out its strategy against Taliban whom US abandoned after they became strategically redundant. Pakistan and Kabul were left with a lethal liability of terrorism. This started a phase of bloody blasts, suicidal bombing, terrorists attacks, US private contractors‘ killings of Pakistani civilian population, drone attacks by the groups of Afghan, Pakistan and those launched by its traditional belligerent, India and others. The terrorism after the 2004 operation in Waziristan escalated to other parts of Pakistan. A rein of terrorism was unleashed by anti-Pakistan forces with the covert approval of the Western intelligence agencies. Blasts in every major city of Pakistan including all the major military installations, schools, police training centers and important urban places became a new normal for Pakistan. The period after 2004 was a real spell of foreign planted terrorism against which
175 Pakistan Army is still fighting which has resulted in thousands of killings. ―… Spokesman for the Pakistani Taliban said the group accepted responsibility for only some of the recent suicide bombings in Pakistan, laying the blame for others, including a deadly attack on a market last month that killed more than 100 civilians, on the American security firm formerly known as Blackwater.‖ (Machkey, 2009), (Scahill, 2009), (Nlmmo, 2009).
5.7: The Impact of Abrupt Shift
NATO nations‘ political orientations are based on precepts of modern political traditions and theories. Under circumstances like these; an abrupt shift by a weaker ally on the whims of a powerful partner in an alliance sounds humiliating, devoid of a moral base and human consideration, detested at home. It was hard for Pakistan, whose social fabric characterizes with moral ethos to abandon what in a very recent past it has been spearheading and vehemently supporting. Taliban‘s inspiration was Jihad against an occupation and when Soviet Union collapsed they naturally desired and strived to hold the power for which they struggled and sacrificed. Anatol Lieven an International Relations teacher at Kings‘ College London, whose grandfather and mother served in British India and he himself has traveled a lot to have a personal view of the social and political affairs of Pakistan which he has produced in a book, ‗Pakistan: A Hard Country‘., wrote in ‗Newsweek‘, as a precursor to his book launch that, ―Western media‘s portrayal of Pakistan has also been extremely skewed…Audience in the West require a deeper, more sophisticated and sympathetic view of Pakistan‘s realities‖ (Lieven, NewsweekPakistan, 2012). Lieven‘s view vividly throws light on contrast the way the West views and the way the reality actually exists. This is exactly what makes a local political adjustment sound duplicity in the West Lieven refers to the West‘s legacy to compare it with predicament Pakistan faces, ―…Pakistan has become the key element in a challenge which my European ancestors faced and failed. In their case, the challenge was managing relations between different European nations and cultures without conflict. Their failure led to catastrophic wars that destroyed the continent‘s greatness‖ (ibid). West‘s less thoughtful and ‗Realist‘ approach puts Pakistan in further political and security complexities, these convoluted international strategies have further pushed Pakistan towards increasing Security Dilemma.
176 5.8: The Post-2004 Taliban Groups
The state-free groups have been seen nurtured and manipulated by realpolitik world under a situation where their goal converged with the overlapping causes. The manipulative powers politically projected these non-state actors with their inherent inspirations and beliefs as a tactic to motivate them as proxy. It can be analyzed from the events that later creed of these non-state actors was in fact the outcome of foreign alliances and collaborations that contradicted the popular will of the people after their strategic objective was achieved i.e. the end of cold war. Pakistan collaboration with the Mujahedeen or Taliban was without the consciousness of the unintended consequences. It was rather an unthoughtful security measure that became a compulsive security liability.
The non-state actors disintegrated to realize their own causes at the end of Afghan Jihad in independent groups. Both tried to regain control of their respective interests and causes which was at variance with the abstract political aims designed by NATO nations. It gives a Western strategic model to use potential enemy against the immediate one and later kill them too, whom they strategically courted pretending friend but in actuality a proxy.
This pretentious strategy or tactical affiliation is important to understand for Pakistan which is based on national interest and is different than the social relations bound by some moral. Pakistan as an ally enjoys not different status in the Western strategic schemes. The future is prone for the same consequences as the first thing after executing deals of any alliance, what Pakistan has experienced so far is that its aid was blocked immediately and the Western international behavior got unfriendly or of least relevant to Pakistan‘s national interest. Pakistan financial aid is blocked, the supply of F-16 are held in abeyance and condition to release of a Pakistan who breached the Pakistani law and has been put in jail. That gives a disappointing situation against what Pakistan has lost in the war on terrorism. The consequence of such dichotomous strategy resulted in a wider security threat posed mutually by same goal but divergent causes. (Nation, 2014)
177 5.9: Interfaith Issues and the War on Terrorism
Interfaith issues have merged into political conflicts that have created tensions between non- state actors and the nation states which linger on the margins of terrorism and just war. This created chaotic conditions in the regions predominantly populated by Muslims. The historical depth of such conflict is rooted in the events from 7th century Muslims‘ expansions; Western nations‘ counteractions resulting in crusades, to the spread of Islam in shortest span of 80 years after the death of Prophet Muhammad (peace be upon him) with universal vacation (Chaliand, 1994). This transforming religio-political development caused a haunted and threatening security scenario cautioning established powers of that time. The security perceptions emitting out of such an environment laid the foundation of rivalries persisting till now in one form or the other.
5.10: Historical Outfall
Two major events of 1492 that pushed back the Muslims from Spain with the fall of Granada and pushed forward Columbus to discovery of the Americas. Portuguese, Spanish and Western European diasporas incursions to Americas and emergence of most powerful state in the history of mankind known as the United States of America made the major factor around which most of world security depends and threatened at the same time. USA. is a distinct state; immune to conventional security threats owing to its isolated geographical location from the trouble spots of the rest of the world. It is substantiated by military, industrial complex and technological superiority. Pakistan shares these aspects of security and threats depending on geopolitical environment of overlapping interests and divergent religious and inter-civilizations pulls.
178 Figure 20: Major Game Changers in the History
Creation of Fall of Granada/Start Pakistan/Start of of Columbus Traval Cold war 1492 1947
Fall of Mughal Empire/British Raj 1700-1858
5.10.1: Collapse of Colonialism and Emergence of Nation States After the world wars colonial period started collapsing. World gave way to the creation of nation states. This resulted in further divisions on faith and ideological basis. The underlying religious-political currents spiraled to Security Dilemmas; enveloping North Africa, Middle East, Central Asia the Subcontinent and Eastern Europe. Consequent to emergence of nation states that in fact was breakup of Eastern Europe Habsburg and Muslim empires in weaker Nations‘ divisions based on ethnic and religious lines, withered their power and resulted in comparatively weaker states those became dependent on powers of the time for their security. Pakistan thought it convenient to become part of their geopolitical game plan. Pakistan thus became one of the most complex political reality that entailed both antithesis and ally character with regard to its relations with the Western nations and the world in general. This historical legacy and political divergence has become its biggest liability and major cause of its Security Dilemma. As a natural security strategy, with Pakistan‘s major bias against India, it wanted strategic depth in Afghanistan to ward off Indian manipulation against it from Afghanistan, where Indian wields considerable influence.
179 5.11: The Indian Intrigue and Policy of Low Intensity Conflict
What devastated Pakistan out of terrorism fiasco was growing number of terrorists‘ groups having shades of perpetrated and launched by Indian RAW and Afghanistan Intelligence agency National Directorate of Security (NDS). This fact was disclosed by the Chief of Intelligence Bureau of Pakistan. (Sajid, 2016). US‘s CIA cannot be absolved from knowing about such activities as they have an strict control over affairs in Afghanistan due to their military presence, although apparently they have given an Afghan face to their occupation. The widely used name Taliban gave free for all umbrellas to all self-proclaimed groups, thought to be purposefully aiming at maligning original target Taliban by the West, using their activities for pushing Pakistan for aligning with NATO‘s anti-terrorism strategy and in case of India to deter Pakistan from pro-active anti-India resistance in Kashmir and elsewhere. The Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval under Prime Minister Narendra Modi government; very openly gave out elements of such a strategy in a public forum. He cautiously outlined the shift from defensive to offensive-defense strategy in his speech at a public forum video tapped when he said, ‘You do Bombay and you lose Baluchistan‘ (Dailymotion, 2015). It seemed a precursor to ongoing and future Indian shift to offensive strategy that aims at resorting to terrorist acts within Pakistan with low intensity conflict framework. In the same talk Indian National Security Advisor notes that now Pakistan is far away from the cause of Kashmir than ever before. India has successfully cultivated in Afghanistan diplomatically and has made it harder for Pakistan to do the same in spite of common faith, adjoining borders and overlapping social strata. In yet another speech at a young leaders‘ forum the Indian National Security Advisor Ajit Doval said, ―When Pakistan used to fire, we always had a shield in our hand. This time we also had a sword,‖ (Nation T. , National , 2014). Consistent in his views on India-Pakistan relations the Indian National Adviser Ajit Doval said, ―India has to be prepared for a two-front war and build deterrence that ensures conflict is not an option for its adversaries‖ (Hindustantimes, 2014).
5.12: Impact of Terrorism on Pak-India Relations
The element of terrorism has a visible impact on India-Pakistan relations as Jihadi groups in Kashmir, Afghanistan and Pakistan have been reciprocating each other on availability. After
180 the cold war and in early stages of Soviet withdrawal when it seemed the Jihad in Afghanistan had a pause; the next place where it was likely to escalate was Indian held Kashmir. Saroj Kumar, writer of, ‗The Secret History of Mumbai Terror Attacks (Routledge, 2014)‘ and an assistant professor at University of Delhi writes that, ―Post-2015, Afghanistan will be the launching pad of international terrorism, a place where extremists will find safe haven. Using Afghanistan as springboard, the militants could restart Jihad and chaos in India.‖ (Rath, 2014).
The key to such escalation is the resolution of Kashmir dispute. Indian hard stance on Kashmir is a major hindrance. Pakistani Prime Minister Muhammad Nawaz Sharif‘s government has made an earnest effort for confidence building with India, out of the way, which is against the popular will of Pakistani people even. Pakistani people do not trust India and assail India for its atrocious treatment of Kashmiris, in Indian held Jammu and Kashmir and Muslims living in other parts of India as a minority. The Gujarat massacre in Ahmadabad, India, under present Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi government who was the then Chief Minister of Gujarat state; is an often quoted instance in which Hindu mobs, ―Blaming Muslims for the deaths of the [Hindu] pilgrims, (which was investigated and found as an accident). Hindus unruly mobs rampage, rape, loot and killing in a spasm of violence that rages for more than two months. Mothers are skewered, children set afire and fathers hacked to pieces….About 1,000 people, mostly Muslims, are killed. Some 20,000 Muslim homes and businesses and 360 places of worship are destroyed, and roughly 150,000 people are displaced.‖ (NYT, Asia Pacific, 2014).
This atrocious Indian behavior makes a cause of Muslim zealot groups to resist Indian atrocities with armed struggle that may be defined terrorism or insurgency depending up on ideological, political, religious and strategic variables. This kind militant Hindu attacks under state patronage of right leaning government of Narendra Modi is consistent with history of having connections with Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) founded in Nagpur India on 27 September, 1925, the world‘s largest nationalist volunteer extremist Hindu organization maintaining the largest militant group US ally criticized for its anti-Muslim violence has redoubled Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
181 5.13: Indian Influence in Afghanistan and Pakistan Security
Pakistan‘s role in Afghanistan has broadened India‘s sphere of anti-Pakistan counter intelligence moves, countervailing Pakistan‘s overtures in Afghanistan that aims at cultivating groups ideologically favorable to Pakistan. India has adopted the format that set the precedent to fight Afghani Jihad. India is cultivating in mercenaries and splinter warring groups‘ dissidents and other emerging groups readily, available to render mercenaries services for money and weapons, partially prejudiced towards Pakistan army and the state and partially as part of local tradition of militant client-ship for economic sustenance, ever ready to fight for who weighs and pays. A study that appeared in the ‗Foreign Affairs‘ observes that, ―Afghan battles have often been less decided by fighting than by defections.‖ (Semple, 2009). It will be hard for Pakistan to match dolling out money to ‗flip‘ any such groups on its side, due to its weak economy and dependability and above all; eroded influence, and even if it is possible, loyalty of any such group changing sides will always remain doubtful and with no surety to where this vicious cycle will end. A narrowed option left with Pakistan has been to inspire its relations with favorable faction of Taliban on the motivations of faith and Muslim brotherhood that is less possible under given circumstances but will remain dormant in minds of Pakistan‘s policy makers as a last resort for which they will have to wait for the right time, not in sight in near future unless some big radical scenario emerges.
Pakistan with its meager resources cannot afford long battles of any kind. The best way to settle peace is through negotiated mode that Pakistan must strive through its foreign policies and by avoiding foreign influence and member of an alliance that can bring the battle on its soil.
5.14: Taliban and NATO: Divergent Causes and it Impact on Pakistan Security Dilemma
Taliban factions with ‗puritan faith indoctrination‘ are politically difficult to break up after they perform the US designed strategic task to defeat ‗Communist Russia‘ as a product of tactical engagement crafted by the NATO nations with US leading. The Afghan Jihad or
182 more realistically the West‘s ‗War on Communism‘ was to the full advantage of Western nations who fought it with Arab money and Afghan and Pakistani people were used, as one can put in sarcasm as ‗gun fodder‘. The core concept of such a tactical engagement is exploiting the tribal martial traditions and their beliefs. These beliefs and cultural orientations are worked out to craft a strategy to achieve political objectives under ‗Realist‘ theoretical framework.
Pakistan miscalculated when it was indulged in organizing and making Taliban formations against the former USSR. Pakistan could not control their spread as independent fighters or warlords. After Soviet occupation the groups operated under seven Afghan parties based on sect, ethnic clan and geographical identity. A member of a resistance movement or faction can be disciplined better once if that is among a group; mutually affiliated on the basis of factors just mentioned. These parties were headed by strong figures and with fully complimented robust logistical system, command and control, tactical guidance, directly supported by the ‗General Staff‘ of a powerful Western alliance superimposed by USA. These proxy formations availed assistance of Pakistan that mattered the most during days of Afghan Jihad against Soviets that in fact was designed by US and the Western nations through military organization, NATO. After the end of work when former Soviet Union collapsed, USA abruptly abandoned without any plan to settle peace after the War on Communism war over. Robert Gates the then deputy director of CIA (later Director CIA) testified this fact before the House Armed Services Committee in December 2007: ―…the Soviets did withdraw from Afghanistan, and the United States essentially turned its back on Afghanistan.‖. (Sprung, 2009). The US returned only to bring more war. According to ―Robert Parry…US did worse than ‗abandon‘ Afghanistan. In belated pursuit of Cold War aims, the administration of George H.W. Bush fomented further civil war…After the Soviet pullout, the regime of Soviet-backed President Najibullah survived for another three years, in defiance of Gates‘ expectations. During that time, rather than support a negotiated settlement between Najibullah and the Mujahedeen, the US continued to fight a proxy war.‖ (ibid).
As a natural consequence the left over Jihadi groups split without a central power. Al-Qaida grabbed the direct leadership of most of left over Jihadi groups, as non-state entities that wielded tremendous influence due to its financial resources, a strong and full-bodied and
183 vigorous leadership, clear-cut ideology that was rigidly faith-based which deemed work unaccomplished after the Soviets left. Mujahadeen in real essence were not fighting American‘s war but their interest converged with the strategic objective of NATO nations. US was using them expediently just to counter communism in Soviet Union. After a short civil war, Taliban took control of Afghanistan. Pakistan recognized Taliban government in Kabul immediately; deeming it strategically friendly as a natural choice, filling the gap after US departed. Pakistan made a haste in recognizing Taliban although they suited their strategic choice however, to be in step with the international community and to articulate their strategic ambition was what Pakistan lacked which engulfed it in a security dilemma. Former President General (R) Pervez Musharraf said to this effect that,
―Pakistan was looked at negatively by the world because of recognizing the Taliban regime and conceded that in 2000 the then US President Bill Clinton came to Pakistan to reprimand the government for recognizing the Taliban. (TOI, 2014).
It can be analyzed from the above events that American and Jihadi groups‘ interests diverged after the defeat of USSR. Al-Qaeda and US relations became estranged and the next round of Western and Muslim conflict started. The senior Al-Qaeda leadership became target of US and NATO military operations. Mujahideen/Taliban started considering US as an occupier same as they thought of former USSRUS started direct operations to eliminate senior Al- Qaeda and Jihadi leadership and used its influence on Pakistani government and military to fight against them which included operational leaders and ideologue of Al-Qaida including its founder Osama Bin Laden. After first line of leadership was killed leaving second and third tier of petty leadership which became prone to go to the side that bet them well or make what they could at their own. As a consequence there were so many splinter groups using same name but with different character of their own which aimed at cashing the moment and opportunity that was suitable for them to survive under the given environment. When there was a need to use Jihad word as inspiration to fight communists. The literature was provided by the American CIA. Now the Mujahideen or Taliban became redundant in the US policy framework and rather became a threat to USA. CIA shifted their efforts to tarnish their image which was possible through false flag attacks stage through hired groups from among the
184 splinter Taliban fighters. This time it targeted government of Pakistan, its installations, cities and military creating a new phase of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
5.14.1: How it Impacted Pakistan
Pakistan became target of all these groups. Pakistan became battleground for NATO to directly or indirectly take on the war of terrorism. Pakistan‘s ambiguous connivance, with NATO nations in the war on terrorism in which drones were also being used which killed children, women and other civilians who were not involved directly in any act of terrorism. This kind of indiscriminate killing of civilians created a bad situation difficult for Pakistan‘s internal security. In Pakistani tribal areas i.e. FATA, it resulted in instances of armed retaliation against security forces in which 50,000 security personnel and civilians have so far been killed. This proved another worse addition to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. This kind of escalation is due to emergence of splinter groups led by second and third tier of command whose were directly linked with the Al-Qaida ideology cannot be equated to a higher degree and who as is common to such groups work without a cohesive umbrella like Al-Qaeda did and are usually at their own using their former credentials and partial motivation. These loosely formed splinter groups lacked a higher authority to control or represent them for any negotiated compliance not possible when these are too many and without any central authority. Consequently such groups become a lethal violent force doing on the directions of who can afford to pay them, becoming an object of interstate exploitation. Some of these groups didn‘t know exactly as if they are working for some foreign agency but only sought the funds and weapon to fulfill their own retaliatory agenda under not-so-much disciplined outfit.
5.15: Elimination of Top Al-Qaeda Leadership has Increased Terrorism Threat?
US strategy is to dismantle Al-Qaida organization and eliminate its senior leadership. After elimination of influential and senior leadership, small splinter groups are hard to be controlled. It is only possible when working under a well-structured and organized entity representing the majority of a movement or resistant group like Al-Qaida. By killing most of
185 Al-Qaida leadership, the splinter groups have become more violent in their terrorist tactics and are prone to be hired by enemy states and intelligence agencies beyond their apparently declared reason of carrying out Jihad. Pakistan is facing this situation in the wake of emergence of TTP and ambiguous terrorist groups who were involved in attacks on civilians, schools and military establishments including Pakistan Army General Head Quarters in Rawalpindi. Some of these groups were identified with a tattoo painted on their bodies. People of religious credentials observed that such painted tattoos are not permitted in Islam. Talking to media, Mufti Naeem of Karachi‘s Jamia Binoria seminary told The Express Tribune that, ―There was no exception to drawing tattoos in Islam as Shariah has clearly imposed restrictions on it‖. The head of Pakistan‘s Ulema Council Allama Tahir Ashrafi also endorsed the view ―It was astonishing to see the body with a horrible face tattooed on his body. Islam does not allow drawing tattoos,‖ he added. ―This cannot be the body of a Muslim‖… Associated with Jamaat-e-Islami, [Professor] Khursheed [Ahmed] maintained that the Peshawar airport attack confirmed ―Our fears that some foreign hands are carrying out these terrorist attacks in the name of Islam.‖ (Tribune, Express, 2012). In another attack claimed by TTP, it was revealed from their cell phone conversation shared by Inter Services Public Relations (ISPR) with media that the terrorists were getting instructions from their handlers in Afghanistan. (Dawn, 2014). This evidence confirms the doubtful nature of such splinter and proxy groups working as mercenaries that add to the terrorism phenomenon and its outfall on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
The elimination of top leader of Al Qaeda was a tactical mistake as it resulted in more lethal groups of Taliban with lesser control. Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is major among such groups that are linked with anti-Pakistan foreign agencies using Taliban umbrella. Government of Pakistan is primarily fighting against such anti-state terrorist groups. The first drone ever used was against TTP young leader in June, 2004. The Pakistan connivance was soon uncovered when Pakistan accepted the responsibility to kill Naik Muhammad, the Taliban leader which was proven untrue as it was a quid pro quo to allow US drone strike against him. (Newyorktimes, 2013). This sounds that a short time advantage was availed for a long time security risk. Such ambiguous approval of US drone strikes by Pakistan, with the passage of time became a national issue and security threat; an irony of wrong decision
186 making. What comes to be counted for this study is a conclusion where a state doesn‘t go by a farsighted input in foreign policy planning and invites bigger troubles and external intrusion than to resolve local threats within its means. It also gives power politics work out design, to first create conditions through a client force or hired mercenary group; posing threat to a target state for the accomplishment of future intrusive designs.
5.16: Example: Making a Strategic Space
We make an assumption based on observations in the ongoing war on terrorism. USA crafts TTP that threatens Pakistan. Pakistan seeks US help to eliminate this threat. US ask for permission to use drone. US, after eliminating requested shoot US extends its drone operation to eliminate Al-Qaida leadership that is her original objective. This is apparently what has happened and haunts Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. From the first drone kill to what still continues to-date, the literature on subject and practical events in Libya and now in Iraq with an ambiguous entity called Islamic State of Syria and Iraq (ISIS) working like TTP, makes it a well-thought-out recipe for international intrusion aiming at controlling the region by justifying their war actions with strategies of helping target nations and crafted legitimacy through Responsibility to Project (R2P) provision now part of UN authorization list, extending drones operations in the garb of helping target states to counter threats they face whereas a strategy that aims at reaching their own registered targets. All this ultimately results in establishing a US military base and troops‘ deployment on the pretext of protecting troubled regions of Iraq making ISIS a reason that it is posing threat to Kurds, whose autonomy has been helped by US again. Establishment of such a US military base in Kurd held Erbil province has been strongly advocated by an American think tank. Erbil borders with Turkey and Syria, both vital to long term US strategic designs. (Knights, 2014).
5.17: Foreign Ingress and Covert Operations
The conflicting priorities to fight the threat between Pakistan and US have created a sense of mistrust. USA has been emphasizing Pakistani authorities to do more. ‗Do more‘ rhetoric has become identified with the command to kill whom US considers as serious threat. TTP is priority one for Pakistan to fight it as they directly threaten state of Pakistan, at the same time
187 Haqqani network who US considers affiliate of Al-Qaeda, the former Jihadi partner against Soviet Union; presently turned enemy is, on US top hit list. US has been working to create an intelligence faction as an alternative to Pakistani army and intelligence services. In a report, ‗America’s Shadow State in Pakistan’ published in Newsweek; observes that after the capture of newly appointed Al-Qaeda‘s external operations Chief, Younis Al Mauritani in September, 2011 at Quetta, by pro-US faction of Pakistan‘s Inter-Services Intelligence, ―Many in US government regarded the capture as a crowning achievement of a decade long multibillion-dollar effort to build a secret network of Pakistan‘s security forces, intelligence operatives, counterterrorism fighters and detention centers.‖ (Lake, 2011). The Raymond Davis, a CIA contractor and intelligence operative who killed two Pakistani intelligence operatives who were eavesdropping on his activities and what it revealed about his connections with people in tribal area and finally; for what it worked later that helped kill Osama Bin Laden. Raymond Davis gives a window to give credence to the fact of foreign ingress in Pakistan. Raymond Davis became the face of ―Numerous US operatives who worked with elements of the US aligned shadow forces in Pakistan to target and apprehend terrorists‖. Although intelligence cooperation is part of intelligence working but in the case of third world countries US has traces of creating direct affiliates bypassing host country‘s control. These groups work with CIA who controls them directly. This is possible only because the huge funding required for such intelligence manipulations is only possible for a rich and influential state like USA. This is possible due to lavish financial affordability, influence and global intelligence network of CIA. This is not possible for fund starved technically deficient third world countries. Pakistan faces same intelligence limitations like other third world countries. Michelle Bachmann a member of [US] House Intelligence Committee called attention to some $20 billion secret US funding over the years to Pakistan and said, ―Whatever our action is, it must ultimately be about helping the US and our sovereignty…‖. Mark Lowenthal, an ex-CIA Assistant Director for analyses explained such a direct dealing with field operators of Pakistan intelligence agency, ―If it was a coherent government, then when we made a deal with the President or the Prime Minister you would know as the orders come down the line they would be obeyed…you have all these competing power centers. We are not doing this because we are trying to be clever by half; we are doing this because this is the nature of the state we are dealing with…‖ This established quite
188 enough as to what has befallen on Pakistani security establishment that has scrambled its national security due to terrorism and its related activities. (Telegraph T. , World , 2011).
A study, ―The Fight for Legitimacy: Democracy vs Terrorism” finds the traces of CIA involvement in Iran (1953), Congo (1961) and Chile (1973). All these cases trace intrusive CIA working, with its proxy groups. The writer claims that he was given access to primary sources. This study reveals US instigation in toppling Iranian President Mussadaq at the background. Ray Takeyh, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations writes, ―Even before the Western intelligence services devised their plots, Mussaddeq‘s conduct had already alienated his own coalition partners.‖ (Takeyh, July/August 2014).
5.18: Instances of Foreign Intriguing and Manipulations
The war on terror needs likeminded people all over from head of government to institutions at all tiers. This is not an easy task as with ideological and cultural differences only a certain kind of elite is possibly lured and manipulated with the influence and plentiful resources to create conditions through such proxy elements working within a target government for interest of a certain power to achieve a strategic objective. Pakistan, since beginning has been an open field for foreign political manipulations. The governments installed through this process care less about the will of the people but for those who use their influence and resources to help them grab power and perks. Osama Bin Laden once said, ―If we cut off the head of America, the Kingdoms in the Arab world will cease to exist‖ Hamid Mir, ‗Interview of Osama Bin Laden‘, Pakistan, 18 March1997, quoted in (Scheuer, 2007) p. xxxiii. America has a history of regime changes, where governments are not deemed favorable to its own or its allies‘ national interest. Mysterious murder of Pakistan‘s Prime Ministers of Pakistan, Nawabzada Liaqat Ali Khan, Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and President General Muhammad Zia-ul- Haq have elements of skepticism but a pattern of beginning and an end that gives some clues when juxtaposed to events in Iran, Congo and Chile. CIA‘s involvement has been confirmed after the release of US state department‘s declassified primary sources, ―CIA undertook the covert activities [Chile]…There were sustained propaganda efforts, including financial support for major news media, against Allende and other Marxists. Political action projects
189 supported selected parties before and after 1964 elections and after Allende‘s 1970 election.‖ (CIA, 2000). In the case of Pakistan too, this political patronizing Western model can be observed throughout its history. After the charges of duplicity, General Pervez Musharraf was portrayed as untrustworthy in security literature of that time published in their prestigious political journals, which led to political change in Pakistan. Although certain political and social circle sentiments were material in crafting a case against Musharraf on the generalized premise of preference of democracy over a military rule that is replete in history of Pakistan. Military rulers were supported by US when expedient and suiting to its national interest. Pakistan People‘s Party (PPP) and Muslim League‘s (now know as Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz Shairf) (PML-N)) carcasses were reincarnated for transition from military to civilian rule in Pakistan. This was done with a covert precondition or surrendering sovereignty. This kind of foreign political support pivots on certain compromising internal acts like; closing one eye on drone shoots in tribal areas aimed at hunting Al-Qaeda‘s senior tiers. Majority of Pakistani see the government of Asif Ali Zardar and Nawaz Sharif a product of such a deal covertly helped by Western powers to disparage military rules that the West and the US specially deemed not working to its full advantage as a supported government entity in Pakistan caring for US and NATO‘s fullest interest. Pakistan military could not pass the Western ‗qualifications‘ in the environment of decade long post 9/11 developments, an all-out partner in the war on terrorism. On many occasions on official and in media Pakistani military was blamed for having a soft corner for so-called ‗Haqqani group‘, that is considered an Al-Qaeda affiliate by NATO nations particularly. It is fairly assumed that military considered Jalal-ud-Din Haqqani faction, a former warlord commanding the most influential resistance faction in Southern Afghanistan who leads a big and robust Zadran clan in Khost province of Afghanistan with the suspected launching base in North Waziristan Agency. Pakistan military considered Haqqanis‘ favorable in their strategic designs to have a ‗strategic depth‘ that implies government of favorable Pashtun faction in Kabul to countervail India.
190 5.19: Downgrading Pakistan Army in Foreign Game Plans
When Pakistan was created Pakistan Army was the only institution which was better disciplined and organized. The West wanted Pakistan to beef up against their Communist rival Soviet Union. This is what made Pakistan Army an important strategic choice to engage with as political cadre of Pakistan was irrelevant to the military schemes of the West. That is what made Pakistan Army the first priority for the West relegating the Political cadres of Pakistan. With the change of situation and after the Cold War ended the Western posturing changed from relying on Army to Political and democratic order. In the contemporary times and with the changed scenario; NATO nations have remained skeptical of Pakistan role in the War on Terrorism.
The view of Mark N. Katz, professor of government and politics sums this complex relationship in these words:
―Pakistan‘s relationship to the ―War on Terror‖ has been highly ambivalent. On the one hand, Pakistan played a key role in facilitating the US-led intervention in Afghanistan from shortly after 9/11 up to the present. It has permitted the transit of materiel across Pakistani territory to US forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan has also tolerated American missile attacks launched from Afghanistan against Taliban and al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan‘s lawless border region with that country.‖ (Katz, 2017)34
Pakistan role however has not been a declared belligerent but her actions to protect her interest have led to much misconception about its role in the War on Terrorism. Trading all out support is not possible in International Relations that would not assure part of a partner‘s state interest. Pakistan has faced this predicament that her powerful partners wanted to do it more without granting it its due share in the strategic stakes. This aspect has created the Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan army considered not much ‗intimate‘ as partner on the war on terrorism though they supported and became declared partners with the NATO nations. In Pakistani political traditions, military, ―…Enjoys an unchallenged monopoly over the making of national security and foreign policy.‖ (Humayun, 2011). This was a thing which the Western intelligentsia was becoming more critical as it defied their strategic
34 Mark N. Katz is a Visiting Senior Fellow at the Middle East Policy Council and a Professor of Government at George Mason University. Links to many of his publications can be found on his website: www.marknkatz.com http://www.mepc.org/articles-commentary/commentary/pakistan-and-war-terror?print Retrieved 3/1/2017
191 designs in the region. The US shift to support civilian‘ government was also due to public opinion which principally was critical of army rules although after establishment of civilian rule they also disparaged civilian government of Asif Ali Zardar and now Muhammad Nawaz Sharif for the alleged corruption. The most serious incident in this regard was famous ‗memo scandal‘ in which US support was sought by the government of Asif Ai Zardari against military whom President Zardari doubted to topple his government. A memo to this effect was conveyed through Hussain Haqqani; the then Pakistani Ambassador (Shah, 2012) to U.S who handed it over to Admiral Michael Mullen; who confirmed its receipt. (Rgin, 2011). This jiggery–pokery is plausible evidence of Pakistan‘s politicians‘ collaborations with the foreign power for the sustenance of their government.
5.20: MQM under Altaf Hussain: A Security Risk?
There is a lot which cannot be said with full force at the back of this observation but analyzing the Pakistani pulse; Altaf Hussain is deemed in public opinion and through investigative journalism sources that, he is involved in inciting violence in the Pakistan port city of Karachi. While living in the comforts of London‘s posh locality he wields tremendous influence on Mohajir community through coercive methods of target killings and burning people of a production unit who refused to pay him ‗coercion money‘ (Dawn, Pakisan , 2015). Pakistan suffer this kind of Security Dilemma as it lacks enough leverage to ask for the culprit from foreign governments and is rather helpful to arrest and handover any local or foreign residing person suspected as ‗terrorists‘ or criminal wanted by a foreign nation with US at top. Pakistan itself seems less interested to go after such law violators and patrons of militant wings within the political cadres due its inherent weakness as a state. It seem incapable to handle and prosecute cases of known criminal like Altaf Hussain prominent among which is the famous Dr. Imran Farooq case who was murdered in London and two suspects who were allegedly involved in his murder were arrested while landing at Karachi airport, who still are in jail and have not been handed over to British‘s Scotland Yard Police department who are investigating the case. These kind collaborative governments feel it easy to get away with the crime they commit and remain unaccounted for their illegal and criminal activities; that serves their political and self-interest along with their foreign patrons, for
192 whom they become tactical tools for the realization of their strategic objectives. (Dawn, Pakistan, 2014) .
5.21: Financial Corruption
Financial corruption is an ultimate lure for a collaborative government installed and supported purposefully by international community under geopolitical compulsions as in the ‗war on terrorism‘ there is not a safer bet than readily available PPP and PML-N who are in a winnable situation under the corrupt Pakistani political system and so-called democracy. Political character emerging out of corrupt political system; work willingly with international power who support to install them, at the risk of national security and public opinion. Governments in Pakistan are suspected of coming into power as a result of political deals after hobnobbing with foreign handlers, to grab government. The installed ruler after coming to power gives free hand to their foreign handler that puts the national security at stake. Pakistani politicians have been availing the international political situation in their favor by indulging in financial corruption like Altaf Hussain in London whose money laundering cases have been dropped in the influence of India. Altaf Hussain‘s former close associate and now leader of the dissident party claimed, ―that Indian spy agency, RAW, was involved in funding MQM; hence New Delhi influenced Britain to drop money laundering charges against MQM founder Altaf Hussain and his colleagues.‖ (Sammaa, 2016).
Such planted and installed political moles feel assured that their job is protected in the absence of any other political alternative that lacks competing them in serving foreign interest. There are numerous instances where public opinion and national interest crosses decision of Pakistan‘s ruling elite popularly alleged by masses and opposition parties for conniving with the foreign powers compromising national interest and sovereignty. A local political party that speaks fair and intoned with popular notion, doesn‘t get approval of the power that be, as it might be hindering a smooth one sided war on terrorism without speaking fairly where it hurts national and security interest. The amount of corruption can be weighed by the statement of Director Swiss Bank, who said, ―97 billion dollars of Pakistan is deposited in respective banks and if this money would be utilized for the welfare of Pakistan and its people then Pakistan can make tax less budget for next 30 year‖ (The Nation, 2011).
193 In another statement the fact has been confirmed by the sitting Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar [2015] who quoted statement of, ―One of the directors of Credit Suisse AG stated on the record that $97 billion worth of Pakistani capital was deposited only in his bank. Similarly, Micheline Calmy-Rey, a former Swiss Foreign Minister, is reported to have put the amount of Pakistani money hidden in Switzerland at $200 billion — a statement that was never contradicted‖. Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed this on the floor of parliament while replying to a question of a parliamentarian, ―Saying that he believed the figures were correct‖ (Dawn, Report , 2014). The fact is indicative of a situational political exploitation due to the Western expediency whose merit to support a government is convergence with its strategic objectives. In the environment of the war on terrorism or Jihad against communist Russia, military and civilian governments have been taking situational advantages to sustain a military rule and in the case of civilian government to take protection from such support to do rampant corrupt and remain unaccountable as an inevitable option to give foreign intrusion a free hand in manipulations and field operational activities. This on the short term can sustain a local political government but is tantamount to Pakistan security on the longer run as Pakistan risks slipping under a full foreign military and political dominance and the end of freedom and integration. This conforms to the new extended theory of security that not only comes from military force but the aspects of a corrupt government, a criminal mafia, and above all allowing a free foreign intrusion traded to stay in power.
5.22: Media Manipulation and Pakistan’s Security Dilemma
Intellectual and media manipulation has a direct bearing on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. In a statement US Secretary of State said that, ―… [US] government [is] falling behind in media marketing‖ that in simple words is that US government is failing in public relations‖ (RT, 2015). After US proactive involvement in South Asia in the wake of war on terrorism, it is spending $50 million on Pakistani print and electronic media to influence Pakistani audience through paid Public Relationing. The amount spent on Pakistani media comes to about 7% of $721 million, spent on US media by US State Department. (Hussein, 2010),35 is of the opinion that in the end US would be judged by it action and not for how much it spends.
35 Anushay Hussein is a prominent Bangladeshi writer residing in Washington DC. She regularly features in CNN, New York Times and Forbes. She can be reached through www.AnushayPoint.com
194 Certain TV channels are given contract for running campaigns on political and social themes to create a favorable perception about US strategies and political game plans, based on human rights, educational, and crucial themes related to civil military relations that pour scorn on military and support a political government favorable to US interest.
The history of US policy of supporting military regimes in Pakistan and now in Egypt and a despot in Arabian Peninsula or elsewhere around the globe shows her expediency and Realism. US strategies on ground are opposed to what it tries to project through such funding. This media amorality affects Pakistani public opinion and splits the society creating local troubles on many national and international issues putting the factions of society at loggers head leading to political and social disability (CSM, 2011). This is not a fairly based straightforward media communication but part of strategic communication that aim at influencing the public opinion. American law does not allow propaganda that might influence the original public opinion. What has been observed in present time according to a Fox News report is that US government is mixing public relations with propaganda that include funding ads meant to raise funds for Armed Forces thus influencing them through ads to support them against the overwhelming opinion against foreign intrusions at home. Rear Admiral Gregory Smith, Director of Strategic Communications for the US Central Command said in response to investigations in this regard, ―We have to be pragmatic and realistic about the game that we play in terms of information, and that game is very complex‖ (Foxnews, Defense , 2009). Strategic and public relations are two important aspects of US media spending in Pakistan. Secular elements are recruited to file stories that embed propaganda themes to show classic faith beliefs as extremist and terrorists. Cherry Bernard recommends building moderate Muslim networks identifying with liberal and secular values. According to a study, ‗Building Muslim Networks‘ by Cherry Bernard with other co researcher recommend, ―We must never place religion above the laws of democracy‖, She sets goals that tantamount to be engineering a liberal and secular Islam by setting goals like, ―Tailor a set of pilot programs on the basis of these needs launch an international network of liberal and moderate Muslims, convening them in a location of symbolic salience‖ and ―Ensure visibility and platforms for them. For example, ensure that they are included in congressional visits and meetings with senior officials to make them better known to policymakers and to maintain support and resources for the effort‖ (Cherry Benard, 2007).
195 Sharmeen Obaid-Chinoy, a Pakistani documentary maker won Oscar on a short documentary ‗Saving Face‘ seems part of the same recommendations as it fits into the goals set by the study as both the characters adopted by US and European media who give them much media hype which does not corresponds to their home popularity. Another movie, ‗Humaira the Dream Catcher‘ (Telegraph T. , 2013) made on the same theme produced by Chinoy was released with the help of an NGO ‗Chime for the Change‘ campaign and its hyped glamorization by the presence of Hollywood celebrity, Jennifer Lopez and American singer Beyoncéis at Twickenham stadium, in the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames, south west London is indicative of going by the recommendation in the study by Cherry Benard to ‗Ensure visibility and platforms‘ (ibid) for liberal and secular social grafting woven around a native character to counter the traditional ethos of a conservative society. This kind of media management ultimately aims at tactical social engineering that fits into propaganda model set in the suggested framework of the study.
Pakistani political party leader gave a calibrated response while commenting on negative projection in the Western media saying. The prestigious UK daily, ‗Guardian‘ reported that this kind of projection, ―…drew some skeptical responses from Pakistani conservatives suspicious of western motives (Guardian, 2014)‖. People were so much skeptical of International intriguing that they did not respond to the full recognition of one of the prestigious award which is deemed an honor for a nation deeming it a political tool (NYT, 2014).
196 5.23: Negative Portrayal of Pashtun Society and the War on Terrorism
Western media projects a society according to its own agenda and strategy. Pashtun society as usurpers of women rights and presents the society as ignorant. Although fact that Taliban get rigid on women education is true but mainstream Pakistan and specially Pashtun society still in a vast majority send their women folk and girls to school. According to a study carried out by it has been found that, ―The Madaris not only contribute to the enhancement of the literacy rate but also produce Ulama and scholars in their respective fields, yet there is a general feeling that the students of Madaris lack understanding of English & Mathematics.‖ (UNESCO, 2012). According to the same report UNESCO pledged funding for sponsoring 2000 Madaris out of which 600 were proposed for female keeping to the local traditions. The UNESCO report showed a marked shift from the fact the later propaganda against Pashtun society where religious institution are projected as terrorists‘ dens only. An allocation in KP budget in the year 2015-16 budget in which PKR. 300 million was criticized in the same vein in a piece by Khusro Tariq in these words, ―This is a very unfortunate, and in all honesty, perilous state of affairs.‖ (Tariq, 2016). Madrasas can be moderated with engagement to overcome fundamentalism and not by maligning propaganda. A tactical approach to challenge religious cadres cannot work for peace and add to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. The reality is that this propaganda theme is not really meant to help the society progress but to justify NATO‘s War on Terrorism in the region to justify military‘s US funding for the consumption of US Congress approval.
Terrorism is causing securitization of Pakistan‘s social aspects and general societal trends where Western liberal and secular values are imposingly projected to undermine the native normative ethos creating an element of discontent as Western style of liberty and secularity is in sharp contrast to Pakistani suburban conservative ethics and moral traditions. Western propaganda cannot be oversimplified just a bit to eradicate ignorance and promote education but resort to influence a society by conversion, a US strategic tradition that it demonstrated against former Soviet Union and now it is displaying against Muslim world. Pakistan and specially Pashtun society a symbol of ignorance. In Pashtun regions it is a tradition that minor girls till the age of puberty go and learn Quran and Hadith, a moral and accomplished code of learning at local madrasas or seminaries in the absence of government schools.
197 However the girls education in madrasas are seen with skepticism by the West as they deems learning Quran. What they deem expect the Pashtun society to be adept in is to follow the general school syllabus which includes diversified curricular than just learning Quran and moral teaching in a Taliban madrasa. According to a survey carried out by Al Jazera in a small place like Qaduz only there are 6000 girls who attend the biggest madras known as Ashrafull Madaras. ―Arguably the most controversial of these madrasas is Ashraf-ul Madares in Kunduz, founded by two local senior clerics, where 6,000 girls study full time. (Aljazeera, Taliban, 2014). Some of these madrasas or seminaries provide boarding and lodging even free of cost like Christians missionaries. Socially madrassa contribute to moral teaching though these are more maligned for contributing to terrorism. George Kenan, a US diplomat posted in USSR in early 40s ‗raised the Soviet challenge to the level of philosophy of history‘…the way to defeat Soviet strategy was by ―…A policy of firm containment, designed to confront the Russians with unalterable counterforce at every 36point…‖ (Kenan, July, 1947) in the word of Henry Kissinger, ―What he sketched was the age-old American dream of a peace achieved by the conversion of the adversary‖ (Kissinger H. , May/June 1994). The contemporary model in the light of foregone US strategic traditions, aims at countering adversaries and matches strikingly with propaganda tools demonstrated in the model character of Chinoy which are used against its adversaries under the grand strategic umbrella of so-called war on terrorism. A separate study and deep insight in investigating the leanings and character of the models of Chinoy can reveal a lot to further augment this postulation.
5.24: Outfall on Pashtuns and Tribal Society
Phenomenon of terrorism has impacted generally Pashtun tribal society. Local migrations, expeditions and campaigns have showed marked social and anthropological effects on North- Western populace of Pakistan. The world population of Pashtuns is 45 million out of which 28 million live in Pakistan.37 Pashtun is a distinguished South Asian ethnic group. Pashtuns boastfully claim standing to invaders and tyrants who came to subdue them. They consider
37 World Encyclopedia: Pashtun People https://www.cs.mcgill.ca/~rwest/wikispeedia/wpcd/wp/p/Pashtun_people.htm
198 any entity assaulting their way of life in any manner as enemy. This is a natural tendency common to all human societies but intense in tribal and semi-tribal cultures. Pashtuns are increasingly becoming urbanized but are still in part frozen in times, self-centered and less inclined to modernize due to inaccessibility to modern means and education. The increased gap between urbanized Pashtuns spread over urban locales, huge diasporas, spread all over the European, Middle Eastern and American regions and the Pashtuns still living in backward areas makes the Pashtun dilemma redoubled in the wake of terrorism and its related issues. The exaggerations about their involvements in fighting and chaos have negatively affected their image. This negative image could not be countered due to lack of communicative skills and resources. The remote tribal spots have become within the preview of a general tactical understanding as ‗all enemy areas‘, The FATA in general and Waziristan in particular have become a battlefield which NATO and local military is free to engage as a counterterrorism target. This kind of rules of engagement in the campaign zones, due to resistance/terrorism activities and tactical consideration to counter it, have resulted in unintended loss of human lives. Pashtun society like all other societies has equal share of sober and zealots but the terrorism phenomenon has dubbed it almost a whole troubled society. The counterterrorism strategy results in random causalities, causes discontent and provokes retaliation on the loss of every single Pashtun. At times, under the environment created by terrorism phenomenon, even a criminal is mourned and generalized as a national loss. Ironically even the nationalist secular parties, who have spearheaded campaign against resistance and Jihad movements of religious cadres mourn too such losses. They condemn them only in their life time. Due to its remoteness and lying on a strategic path of the world nations powerful and proxies, Pashtun s or Pashtun as they call themselves owing to variation is northern and southern dialect, the society has become in the cross fires of nations partly due to normative idiosyncrasies and partly due to global geopolitical imperatives. Pashtuns have been double trapped first for their martial identity which makes them a priority target of the West. Second due to the added phenomenon of faith, a fundamental motivation that overrides their marshal status and which the West is now confronting like it did communism makes their miserable plight redoubled.
199 5.25: Projecting Terrorism: A Precursor to Security Threat
The connotations of resistance, terrorism and Jihad depends on faith absolutes and Western political and strategic cultures. Pakistan aligned itself with Western narrative of ‗War on Terrorism‘ due to its diplomatic and political complexities. It proved an anti-thesis to the sensibilities of its religious cadres who deemed their resistance as jihad consequential to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan had no option to sustain her position in International Relations realm by becoming part of UNSC Resolution 1373 that was unanimously adopted in just 5 minutes session of UNSC on 21 September, 2001 mandating War on Terrorism. This resolution was meant to legitimize military interventions by NATO and its allies. The conflicting perspectives led to further escalating the confrontations. US had this kind of experience throughout its history with natives and other estranged communities living in America. US settled it with forced conversion of native societies with enslavement and coercive tools, enforcing reality of submitting to blend of modern European culture exercising commanding awe of emerging power of USA.
5.26: FATA Military Operations and its Impact on Security
A major development that led to internal security deterioration was the military action in FATA, starting from 2004. The operation in the North-West and Swat started on the US and other NATO nations‘ pressure as Pakistan mostly relied for foreign aid for its economic sustenance for the supply of military hardware which it imported from USA and the rest of the West in the wake of threat on its Eastern front with India. Pakistan had already consented behind the scenes to allow US drone attacks on Taliban hot spots which resulted in certain violations of agreed rule of engagement on ground and went rampant after Obama was elected President of the USA. These drone strikes resulted in the killing of a considerable number of civilians that included children and women. This negatively affected the tribal and was equally grudged by internally and at the international level too. It was not declared policy to allow drone attacks but perception at the popular level predominantly blamed government‘s consent in this regard. However, section of society supported these operations as the only way to bring calm in their lives. Overall this made Pakistani situation prone to retaliatory acts by those whose children and houses were destroyed as unintended
200 consequences of military operations. The foreign actors also played up the situation in their favor and it resulted in the increase of false flag attacks on schools, military officer colonies air bases, military HQs and GHQ itself blaming it all on Taliban to keep the pressure on Pakistani military to take a full action against them.
5.27: Waziristan IDPs
There are about 3 to 4 million Temporarily/Internally Displaced Persons (T/IDPs) from North Waziristan languishing in camps away from their native places as the entire area was evacuated before military operation in 2014. US is supporting and funding military operations and maintenance of the IDPs causing political discontentment. This desperation on the part of Pashtun society, particularly in FATA areas will have negative effects on its security as Pakistan would need their help on the dormant issue of Durand Line, a card of dispute that Afghan government still holds closer to their chest to take up when the opportunity arises. Tribal people have been traditionally and historically incited by successive Afghan governments against British and later Pakistan governments to create conditions of political leverage coercively. In contemporary geopolitical environment, Pakistan is trapped between super power‘s ambitions and not-so-friendly Afghanistan‘s political elite who can create troubles for the sake of with whom they affiliate and are realistically dependent for their political power. They can play on the issue of Durand line for their own sake and as proxy to coerce Pakistan for NATO intended political and strategic objectives. Pakistan Pashtun society thus is a must factor to neutralize any such move. The Pakistan‘s ambivalent Pashtun society has to be treated politically correctly as their grievances, due to persistent military operations and an aversion to negotiated solution will alienate them in the long run. As the history has precedent, these alienated communities would become recruitment areas for the foreign intriguers to play them against Pakistan as a political tool.
War on terrorism should not sideline the Pashtun society as a whole. Historically it has been treated discriminately by British as has been observed by Charles Miller (1977) in his book ‗Khyber‘. Miller attributed revolting tribal behavior due to lack of grass root official contact and doing it through the wrong intermediations of Arbabs or Maliks who played double
201 games. He points out that tribal and north-west frontier had its peculiarities which could not be handled from a distant command and like they do in Punjab or the rest of the India. Pashtun society characterizes with Central Asia and is thus differs in code of ethics and rule to conduct them. (Miller, 1977). British experience has it that most of their troubles were owing to wrong handling of the tribal and Pashtuns as a whole.
In Afghanistan and Pakistan Pashtun‘s intra-tribal and scions‘ feuds for power were basic cause of chaos and infighting. Afghans just after it threw the gauntlet of subjugation from Safavids in 1709 under the leadership of Mir Wais Khan Hotak. Pashtun society has a history of resistance on the basis of faith. Mir Waise Khan, ―Steven Otfinoski referred to him as Afghanistan's George Washington in his 2004 book Afghanistan ...rebelled against his Persian masters on the issue of faith as the Persian rulers resorted to sectarian conversion of Afghans, Pashtun Sunni Muslims, around Kandahar, an area under Persian Safavid rule government by Gurgin Khan. (Wikipedia, Mirwais Hotak, 2015). Mirwais Khan rebellious act set the first imitative against a foreign ruler that progressed into Afghanistan‘s final state under its modern political leader, Ashraf Ghani who is presently (2015) its head of government and state. It has been split always in two factional grouping one conniving and the other killing the foreign intruders however, the faction mostly victorious consolidated only fighting and then settling down with negotiations and those who mostly leaned and depended on foreign help faded out. The present passing phase is still chaotic to say if the modern Afghan leadership who are aligned with intruding NATO powers with US as master of stratagem, will stay the course of else. The outfall of terrorism on the Pashtun society and its malleability to contemporary global order will dictate fate of Pakistan and Afghanistan Pashtun society who are presently in political doldrums. This will depend on the outcome of test of resilience of resistance and NATO power. The speech of Mirwais Khan on his victory over Safavids in early 18th century makes this notion very clear (ibid): "If there are any amongst you, who have not the courage to enjoy this precious gift of liberty now dropped down to you from Heaven, let him declare himself no harm shall be done to him: he shall be permitted to go in search of some new tyrant beyond the frontier of this happy state‖ (Mirwais Hotak, April 1709).
202 5.27: Pashtun Society and Fall out of Terrorism
Pashtun s are living astride the Afghanistan and Pakistan borders. 2/3 of approximately 45 million Pashtun s‘ live in Pakistan. Pashtunwali or Pashtun Wali code of social conduct is the preferred way of life for them over any other law of imposition. Pashtun society preserved itself in almost in original form resisting invaders all along its history. The present phase that started in 80s after former USS.R‘s invasion and a decade-long occupation was deadliest which has shattered the Pashtun social fabric. Pashtun resistance was taken as Jihad and later terrorism, their traditions and cultures as ignorance, their social practices of modesty and woman exclusiveness as violation of modern charter of human rights that depended on modern political, social and liberal interpretations. Pashtun s became the biggest migrates community due to the conflict between the world‘s two super powers. The military operations rendered them homeless and deprived them of their sources of livelihoods. Waziristan, Swat and Malakand were hit worst. Swat a fruit growing region was fully engulfed by terrorism and military operations. The local population of Peshawar and other big cities of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa was overpopulated with Afghan migrants with increased crimes and sabotage activities. Most of the major terrorism acts were found work of Afghan agents working for RAW. This forced the government to speedily send them back to their native Afghanistan. A UNHCR official confirmed this and said, ―In the past only ten families were repatriating voluntarily (a day), but now more than five hundred families come here." (Tolonews, 2016). Pashtun communities are moving to foreign regions where they are not accommodated as an unwanted guest. They are being sent back to their native country.
These expulsions are due to terrorism threats and partly due to European countries‘ immigration policies who want to contain the refugees‘ influx. This social insecurity has caused great desperation and some time it leads to security threats to Pakistan due to some of the Afghan people‘s involvement in terrorism. Pakistan is the most attractive place for the people of Afghanistan for good businesses and comparatively better protection. Sometimes these communities become sympathetic with their countrymen who live with them and work for foreign agencies to carry out sabotage acts.
203 Suffering caused to Pashtuns due to anti-terrorism operations in their native areas has resulted in widespread Pashtun resentment against the government although educated and urbanized Pashtun circle go by the logic for what these are needed. The desperation caused due to counterinsurgency measures to Pashtun society makes them prey as proxy client to intriguing belligerent powers. The martial nature of Pashtun society blinded by the emotions of revenge become prone to wage a militant resistance, as has been seen in the case of TTP, against the Pakistani military in exchange for money and weapons, sometime oblivious of their handlers‘ real designs. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Taliban and some other militant factions have been blamed by Pakistan Army, working for Indian RAW and Afghanistan‘s anti- Pakistani intelligence establishment with muted consent of US to some extent.
Figure 10: Afghan Refugees in Europe
Source: (The NYT, 2016)
204 5.28: Conclusion
Pakistan has contributed to the War on Terrorism and has suffered a lot. Its civilian and military casualties are many times more than the collective causality rate of the whole NATO nations civil and military losses. All the important Pakistan military and civil vital places have been hit by terrorists‘ attacks.
The fall out on its social life in general and its Pashtun society is too grave. Terrorism factors like conflicting interest and different approaches to tackle it; have resulted in political misunderstanding and distrust at the international and regional level prompting mounting on Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Pakistan predicament due to terrorism has resulted in escalating it security situation as the situation renders a chance to its arch rival India and estranged Afghanistan that has contributed to the Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Pakistan is under obligation of multiple International Relations complexities. Calibrating its own interests and international obligation it has become prey to foreign coercive strategies. Pakistan has thus become the hub of covert and terrorist operations creating a chaotic situation.
Most of Pakistan media and intellectuals are not playing a meaningful role to portray a positive picture and to counter negative propaganda against Pakistan. Pakistan is being casted in secular and liberal ethos and by undermining normative values thus creating a social confusion about its beliefs and international order. This social and political trending is casting a heavy toll on the social fabric of Pakistan and is creating a dilemma.
205 CHAPTER-6:
PAKISTAN’S SECURITY DILEMMA: CAPABILITY AND RESPONSE
6.1: Introduction
Capability emits out of national power. National Power is a total sum of elements of power. National power is composed of tangible and intangible characters. Capability is not just counting of inventories but encompasses all elements of national power, guts to guns. Capability is not mass of power but the quality of its correct use. This part of study will conflate element of national capability and response to Security Dilemma with a conceptual approach by putting it in the framework of national power. Military means are fraction of national capability i.e. physical capability to guard national security. More than power itself a better stock of elements of national power capability can deter the use of force by a belligerent. Hans J. Morgenthau lists down elements of national power elaborately in his book, Politics among Nations’. (Hans.J. Morgenthau, Politics Among Nations , 1991 (Sixth Eddition))
Figure-11: Elements of National Power (Tangible)
Geography
Natural Industrial Resources Capacity
Military Population Preparedness
206 Tangible Elements of National Power are:
Geography Natural Resources Military preparedness Industrial Capacity Population Pakistan is a hugely populated state with a well-trained and among the most organized and disciplined militaries in the region. Its British organized and trained military institutions provide it a fairly reliable infrastructure to keep supplying fair amount of military leadership. It was able to maintain its basic military discipline from unit to formation, level none of whom ever interfered at their own in the politics directly or acted against a collective military decision at higher level. Pakistan military always acted in unison under a unified decision of General Headquarters and resorted to use politicians and civil institutions than involving the full range military institution in civilian affairs after it distrusted chaotic political order. The politicians segregated from procedural democracy were however, mostly the same lot who compromised to work under dictatorship than to mend their democratic ethics. Bureaucrats deemed it convenient to work with military to at least save the political interference in their affairs thus making an establishment with military to influence Pakistani politics.
They further included intangible aspects of national power which influences the national capability, security and standing of a nation in international arena vital for its survival. The enhancement of all these elements will make a country as powerful as these elements are found in abundance and quality.
6.2: National Index of Composite Power (NICP)
The concept of security has been transformed tremendously in the modern age, earlier it relied on military might but now it is counted in terms of composite national power. Till the advent of industrial era military might use to be the only convention of subduing and prevailing as conqueror. Science and technology and surplus caused by machines have created interdependence in so many areas. Search of market to dispose of surplus products
207 have resulted in securitization of areas ordinarily deemed as normal economic activity. To code a comprehensive National Index for Composite Power (NICP) it is coded in six components. The following figure shows these components:
Figure-123: Composite Index of National Capability
Population Size
Total Steel and Iron Total Urban Population Production
Total Primary Energy Total Military Personnel Total Military Budget Consumption
According to the calculation of Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) Pakistan was at .1377 positions with the average world percentage of .0138 percentage average. (Omniatlas, 2007)38 This ratio is percentage of total world average of National Capability Index (CPN) that shows hard power of a nation. Relying on just military power is not enough as we see in the case of Russia that relied on hard power ratio that overestimated its comprehensive national capability in comparison to US which did not help sustain its military capability and led to its collapse. China has learned a lesson and has evolved a new method to quantify national power encompassing the entire spectrum of strategic, economic, industrial, political and military standing. According to Wu Chunqin the pioneer of the study, ―CNP can aid a nation not just for war but also to ―coordinate a political and diplomatic offensive to psychologically disintegrate the enemy forces and subdue them.‖ (Bajwa, 2008), it further elucidates it, ―CNP generally means the sum total of the powers or strengths of a country in economy, military affairs, science and technology, education and resources, and its influence.‖ The gap between these two phenomena impacts the response and total capability of a nation. Pakistan has great potential as a resourceful and dynamic political, geographical and strategic state but that all is relevant to its stability, quality of leadership, economic robustness and national character. According to Atlantic Council, a US think tank; Pakistan position is projected to be at the top ten by year 2060 and consistently falls among 20 top ranging years 2010-2060. (wikipedia, 2015). The question is during all these years how it can maintain and further develop
38 See https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/index20111129.pdf retrieved on 9th December, 2019 as an alternative link.
208 its national power and capability as a security response under the international political environment that presently seem impeding it. The major obstacle posed to national security is terrorism. Terrorism might not be a total religious phenomenon but a cluster of intriguing events, religious and real politics that range between resistance and sabotage posed by non-state actors as retaliation to international injustices like occupations and atrocities by big powers as covert operations to achieve objectives of their international interests. Pakistan is a dynamic country which depends on the quality of its leadership and democracy to improve upon all other areas of national power that includes skills, education, welfare, governance, economic growth, energy exploration, science and technology and above all political influence. Pakistan‘s population and geographical preponderance in the international helm is not complimented with industrial base. Pakistan remains dependent for much of its military hardware to modern technology of West. Without economic viability and a robust industrial base it is not possible to be free willed.
Figure-134: Elements of National Power
Natioanal Morale
Quality of Governance and Diplomacy
National Charachter
Intangible Elements of National Power:
National Character Quality of Government and Diplomacy National Morale
209 6.3: National Character
Pakistan compared to Iran is a bigger nation in population and size. We can observe that US thinks twice when it moves to take an action to countervail Iran due to its security perspective that makes Iran a threat to US interest, as a major player in the Middle East and how it can threaten security of Israel. The recent statement of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the US congress joint session was fervidly applauded throughout and specially when he circumvented a proverb and said, ―…when it comes to Iran and ISIS, the enemy of your enemy is your enemy‖ (NYT, 2015), pointing to the ground realities in which US is collaborating with Iran to fight shady Sunni organization ‗Islamic State in Iraq and Al Sham‘ (ISIS) or Islamic State in Iraq and Levant (ISIL). Although Iran is fighting partly own and partly US interest but its inherent character is that of enemy of the West ultimately. This diplomatic calibration sets apart expediency from reality. Same model when juxtaposed to Pakistan case as an ally give a disappointing view as Pakistan has only been kept at an arms distance from Afghan affairs after the end of ‗Jihad‘ against former USSR. It has only been used as proxy military tool to eliminate threats posed to US that makes it target of Taliban‘s retaliations of all kind, spiraling its Security Dilemma. This establishes whether quality or mass makes the capability. It is not that Iran bluntly refuses to work with international community or stops works out diplomatically to adjust such collaboration in its national interest. Iran has been seen fighting jointly in Northern Afghanistan against Taliban with US and was a major partner and facilitator in toppling Taliban in 2001. Iran inserted its affiliated Shia and Persian speaking population in the Afghan administration to the advantage of US and its own interest. But when tantamount to its national security also downed a US surveillance drone RQ 170 flying over its air space in 2011 (Guardian, A Guardian web site, 2012), boycotted London conference on Afghanistan in 2010, attended by 66 ―Primarily due to Iranian accusations that Britain is fomenting anti-government protests in Iran and that the United States and Britain are obstructing Iran‘s nuclear progress.‖ (Mir H. Sadat, Spring 2010, Volume XVII, Number 1). Prior to this, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatullah Ali Khamenai made it clear in a statement, ―Show us if really anything other than your language has changed …. Should you change, our behavior will change too.‖ (Tehrantimes, 2009).
210 Presently (as of March 16, 2015). Iranian forces are fighting a full pitched battle against ISIS with Iraqi Shia regime in Iraq, installed after US occupation of Iraq.
A nation‘s capability rests on its cohesion which depends on it homogeneity of faith, race, and confidence in its ideology. Pakistan is a multi-faceted society representing ethnic, religious, political and sectarian divides. Even creation of Pakistan was opposed by certain groups harboring prejudices rooted in their factional perspectives that include all the major Islamic groups and scholars, North-Western Pashtun nationalists, Punjabi Unionist Party, representing landlords, and hardliner Khaksar groups all wielding influence on considerable section of Muslim population that was going to become Pakistan. Less Punjab based Unionists Party the opposition of Pakistan by all other groups was based on ideological difference. Unionists view was based on opportunistic character of the party. A eulogizing statement of Khizr Hayat Tiwana; at an occasion when he presented himself in front of a British official Mr. Owsley, reflects the opportunistic character of the landlord community of Punjab, ―I have fifty horsemen and I can raise three hundred. I can clothe them and feed them, and if no questions are asked, I can find them arms too. They and my life are yours." (IanTalbot, 1996). Quaid e Azam view also supports this fact which points at the internal politics disharmony adding to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma, ―The Punjab is the most official ridden province and that some leaders of the Punjab were the creators of the British government‖ leaders of the Punjab were the creators of the British Government‖ (Abid, 2008). Whatever their stance opportunistic or ideological worked negative and created subsequently Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Britain became too weak to sustain their rule otherwise this kind of opposition would have given them sufficient reason to make these opposing characters play up politically to block creation of Pakistan. Britain rather wanted to leave as early as it could which it did so leaving a haphazard and blood-soaked partition of Indian Subcontinent. Almost all the armed engagements to battles between British and people of Subcontinent as a whole were won by British Raj till they left it under economic and political pressure. Central to such conquests and Indian defeat were traitors and fifth columnists within native stock. Starting from Battle of Plassey in 1857 in Bengal to war on terrorism in 2015 the Western powers always lured the natives with money and perks to make them do their bids. It is ironical that the Indian
211 natives have always been seen under the awe of Westerners show and prompt and mastery style. Muslims, Hindus and Sikhs have always been part of English contingents in great numbers fighting their own people who struggled against East India Company and later British imperialism. That shows the ignorance and indifference of sub continental stock that have been observed ignoring collective interest of native people. The number of native foot soldiers and junior or mid-level leadership mostly consisted on natives in British military columns. Guides Cavalry, Punjab Irregular Frontier Force, Frontier Scouts were predominantly Muslim recruited British force, created in early 19th century, meant to fight Muslim resistance against English rule in the former North-West India. In the first Afghan war about 75% the English expedition force consisted of natives who were all killed less one British Medical Officer who could manage escape. This is not just to tell the history but helps explore the local culture of naivety of not too serious in knowing the reality of intrigue and threat. This self-defeating situation is a consequence of ignorance, poverty, leadership and lack of confidence are common phenomena found in introvert communities and nations which Subcontinent seems, heavily engulfed. This creates a distinct cultural pattern where a junior British officer of a lieutenant level becomes a pillar of national building and expansion and a native general like Mir Jaffar of Bengal becomes a tool to help British expansion to the whole of Subcontinent. It took 200 years to dislodge British from Subcontinent that could not have been possible without the dynamics of two world wars that weakened Europe and Britain particularly to leave India to save total economic collapse. West under the emerging leadership of US perpetuated and kept it engaged in schemes to revisit the abandoned regions after refitting and stabilization. Post- world wars followed international real politicks with the emergence of newly created international regimes staffed and influenced by the West and its allies to manipulate and install West-friendly elite classes from landowners to present time corrupt politicians with a process of eroding and compromising national capability. It included a series of arms control and nuclear proliferation talks and treaties, all imposed on mostly non-European nations disproportionally and targets opposite camps like former Soviet Union and wider parts of Muslim world. For example Pakistan‘s nuclear program got projected focus in Western media and discouragement at state level in the West which included economic and military sanctions by US and other European Union countries. Pakistan however, managed to become nuclear power that blocks confrontation to a certain
212 threshold but remains under the strict watch of international community who aim at taking full action to dismantle it at a future opportunity on the pretext of blaming it from proliferation to its hijacking at the hands of terrorists groups. Pakistan‘s factional divisions are rigidly attached to their cause owing to insecurity and lack of confidence in the state to protect them, dissipate national cohesion and erode national power and capability. The evidence to this effect is the militant wings of political parties and their connections with the external powers that deteriorate the security environment of Pakistan. Indian sponsored RAW and CIA‘s ingress to influence from politicians to Taliban grouping Pakistan. Raymond Davis arrest revealed clue to this evidence when lot of contacts were revealed when his cell SIM was tracked and record investigated. One from tribal area has been found guilty of working for CIA who helped bring out information working on what was designed and planned by CIA that led to a diplomatically shocking raid by US seals on Osama Bin Laden‘s living place in Abbottabad near a Pakistan military installation.
Response depends on knowing the menace factually. The oft asked question whether terrorism is just a social menace or rooted in some cause? Our actions as an ally in the war on terrorism are in our national interest or proving just the opposite and eroding our national security due to social disintegration? Is external political and military intrusion more threatening than terrorism itself, which might have been projected maliciously as a theme of realist school of thought for their own interest? Should we rally around the terrorism mantra or should we try to find out the reality about this issue in the light of historical and strategic thinking of the West and develop our capability accordingly? Should we depend on the diversionary literature that is increasingly inserted to concoct terrorism and help craft Western themes or rely on historical models with constants of space and actors playing up great games with variants of times and tragedy?
6.4: Education and Skill Factor
Education and literacy is prime factor in enhancing a nation‘s real capability. Without education a nation can never develop its society. The modern societies‘ main pivot of development and national power is their education standard. According to UNESCO fact sheet Pakistan has second highest number, 5.1 million (2010) out of school, two third among
213 these school drop outs are girls. 49.5 million adults are illiterate that makes it third largest globally. One in three young people in Pakistan have not completed primary school. Equivalent to a total of 12 million 15 to 24 year olds lack basic skills, second highest in the developing countries. Women are the worst hit in acquiring education as 69% are not in labour force due to lacking education and skills. (EFAGMR, 2012). According to ‗Alif Ailaan‘ a prominent NGO, currently 25.02 million boys and girls between the age of 5 and 16 who are not in school. It says, ―…the proportion of out-of-school children (OOSC) increases as the level of education rises so that by the higher-secondary level almost 85% are not in school,‖ (Dawn, 2015).
Figure-145: School Dropout Data (Pakistan)
Source: (Dawn, 2015)
According to the same report more than half of the total out-of-school children is from the biggest province of Punjab i.e. 52%. The following graph shows an overall state of dropouts from all the regions in Pakistan:
214 Figure 156: The state of dropout from schools in Pakistan
Source: Dawn 2015
With this pathetic state Pakistan will have to make a great effort to improve its national education status. Otherwise this data will translate into a bleak future for national development and capability. This would affect our national power and thus national capability.
Amartya Sen, a prominent Economist and Nobel laureate, in an interview while on a visit to London School of Economics and Political Science expressed, ―…Separate out the process of economic growth from the quality of the labour force is a mistake against which Adam Smith warned in 1776. It‘s an ancient danger, and he might have been right to think that the British government at the time did not pay sufficient interest in basic education for all‖ (LSE, 2015).
Pakistan has a minimal up to higher education, as said above 85% of students don‘t not make up to intermediate the following state of institutions show how much is the gap between primary and higher education institutions:
215 Figure 167: Educational Institutions Proportion
Source: Dawn 2015
To complete an education cycle it takes a long term planning. If Pakistan failed to do so, it would be out of step with the rest of the world and would overall as all depends on the enhancement of national education. Pakistan needs to have a very sound and priority projects to improve its national education standards. Pakistan is a Muslim country. Islam emphasizes on education and deems an illiterate like a dead and says the educated and uneducated cannot be equal as not being educated stop one where he is, like a dead who can move nowhere.
6.5: Capability is not Dependent on Military Inventories only
This study is not focused on military power comparison but to compare overall national power status and how it can dissipate military threats and Security Dilemma. In a conflict, neighbors, regional and international players get entangled due to one or other reason major being their national interest. This kind of conflict multiplier either stalls or escalates the confrontations. Like during world wars the entry of USA ended it effectively. And in case of Syrian infighting and its multiple actors it has gone out of control seeing no end to it anywhere in near future. Militarily stands off is not now one versus one nation conflict but a more orchestrated affair in which nations contribute to a conflict to escalate it or help maintain peace. In case of Pakistan, during the cold war era the Western Nations wanted a
216 stable Pakistan and used its influence to control wars between Pakistan and India and resolve Kashmir issue which proved to be the major cause of conflict between them, threatening peace. In the new emerging scenario, the West and especially US tilts towards India to pressurize Pakistan to be more assertive in the war on terrorism, which US deem is causing a threat to US troops in Afghanistan, by weighing in on India‘s side creates a new surge of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. India‘s new aggressive rhetoric under Prime Minister Narendara Modi‘s Rashtria Sawak Sang (RSS) oriented government using terrorism theme as justification for its recent threats of Indian hot pursuit inside Pakistan. Superiority of inventories is not enough overawe other nations.
6.6: National Resolve and the Public Opinion Matters
US left Vietnam in 1975 facing a national resolve and negative public opinion at home, Britain abandoned its colonies due to economic non-viability in mid-20th century and Russian left Afghanistan in 1989 due to big gap between the elements of national power or capability. Pakistan has faith and ideology as a core of its creation. Its hard faith and ideology based national mindset defies the international political order. It is not a middle power even but mostly dependent on foreign aid and assistance even for its security. It is directly exposed to a Security Dilemma that threatens its integrity as an imbalance and deficient nation state in the comity of nations. Pakistan needs to augment elements of national power for enhancing national capability. Pakistan needs to be in step in continuum with the changing world political imperatives. It is not possible without developing fully orchestrated strategies in present times. The question arises whether from Crusades to fall of Granada and from the fall of Ottoman Empire to post-world wars geopolitical scenarios, is a continuum of Western political order for the world hegemony, putting all the rest in political, cultural, economic and physical turmoil and Security Dilemma. The international political practices under conceptual framework of modern political theories of international relations with Realism as leading political framework of international order. The Real Politick is in work in international affairs to establish Western predominance.
217 6.7: Indian Response to Freedom Fighters’ Attack: Does it Reflect Pakistan’s Capability?
India in 2016 after the Uri attack stop short of a full scale war and threatened verbally to go for surgical strikes inside Pakistan. An Indian action in this regard which probably was a normal skirmish that continues throughout the year was declared by the Director Military Operations of Indian Army as surgical strike but after assessing its veracity it seems as if it was to sooth public opinion as a show of power much less than a real surgical strike with an aim to alleviate the effects of the tall claims Indians made after Uri attack and which they respond practically as they claimed. It was not fully confirmed whether the strike the Indian DGMO claimed was carried out or not but its shows the extent of the escalation threshold directly proportionate to Pakistan‘s capability to at least restrain it with matching demonstration of countering the posed threat by signaling counter moves. The Lt. General Ranbir Singh, Director General of Military Operations (DGMO), told reporters in New Delhi, ―The operations were focused on ensuring that these terrorists do not succeed in their design to cause destruction and endanger the lives of our citizens. The operations, he said, have since ceased and the Indian Army does not have plans for further continuation.‖ (The Indian Express, 2016). Pakistan activated its air force as an initial step and put its troops on short notice for any eventuality. However it was not bad to bring the situation to normal by any tricks agreed as real or not. What they achieved by mutual restraints was the normalcy itself. It could have posed yet another Security Dilemma had it been prey to a miscalculation and a step in the wrong direction.
The UN Resolution Number 48 was removed from the list of pending issues by United Nations Security Council to appease India as a new actor aligned with the West against Chinese upgradation to upcoming super power and Kashmiri resistance as well has been drifted (although to lesser extent) to acts of terrorism from a high moral stand of struggle for freedom against Indian military occupation. Pakistan lacks conventional parity, however it can pose a higher threat in terms of nuclear capability unacceptable in ordinary circumstances but inevitable for survival as a last resort. Nuclear capability, though makes a major deterrence, but at a cost that create its own kind of Security Dilemmas by spiraling counter measures by the West using Pakistan, India dispute over Kashmir to either deprive it
218 of its nuclear capability or keep it under constant Western control through political manipulations and regime changes besides a constant political pressure.
6.8: Response Cohesiveness adds to Capability
Pakistan civil-military lack coherence in terms of political and military leadership. It is primarily due to a comparatively strong military institution in the absence of a mature and up to the mark political cadre who could influence by giving political directions in strategic affairs in peace and war emitting out of parliament discussions. The best political influence Pakistan has ever had was right at the onset of the creation of Pakistan under the founding fathers, which either died or assassinated just after the creation. Pakistan was cut from the major mass of Indian Subcontinent and was not commanding full compliments of statehood. It faced difficulties from men to material to run the affairs of the government. The political cadre was in the process of concentrating as to how Pakistan would be run after the independence and still coping with the issue of what it needed necessary to run the country with resources bulk of which was still in areas where India had born as an independent state, after the British left as colonial rulers. These weaknesses were played up or deemed necessary to be filled by comparatively powerful national characters. It started with bureaucratic interference and was replaced by yet another powerful competitor the army.
The mindset to overcome political weakling was due to readily reason of threat to national security which Pakistan faced right from the onset of independence. It might have not been ill-willed but hindered the development of political institutions of Pakistan weakening the very base of its strength. Pakistan was dominated with the anti-colonial leadership and needed a national leadership to steer its way in through international politics which is not done better under a military rule as modern political environment abhor any kind of autocratic and authoritarian rule might it be able to deliver better than the political representative who are perceived to be inept and corrupt or ineligible. The modern democratic world order desire people to sort out incompetent and corrupt political leadership through election and societal strength and not with a short cut of readily available power. Military is not competent to do two works at a time specially the governance for which it is not trained. The major drawback of undermining civil institutions and leadership is that this
219 sideline and deprives it on job development eroding national capability that makes it vulnerable to foreign intrigues and intrusions.
Another effect of a weak political leadership cadre is the foreign intriguing who would always desire a strong ruling institution that they can be trusted and made business with the International community. In the prevailing international circumstances trustworthiness and reliability is mostly considered for remaining under the given international political order without any shade of giving the prior to World war experience in Europe that led to destroy peace in Europe. The new world environment are constructed under the same notions thus abhorrent of any instability and authoritarianism.
Cold war scenario needed a stable Pakistan under a viable leadership cadre that has always been military in case of Pakistan. The military alternative though not internally ideal has been an expedient choice of big powers as this institution was a primary element of their great games to check perceived advancement of USSR. However, as a consequence of cold war and the collapse of USSR, the Western powers shifted to the political leadership‘s choice for the first time in the history of Pakistan when Musharraf was eased out from power bringing in Zardari - Nawaz era.
The civil-military prejudices affected decision making on national security. The civilian government remained somewhat wary of military presence on National Security Council forum. A defense and National Security Council was formed by President Farooq Leghari in January, 1997 consisting of 10 members. This forum was dismantled when Nawaz Sharif came into power in 1998. ―Its responsibilities included advice to the federal cabinet on formulation of defense policy, its coordination with external and domestic policies and other matters with implication for security and stability.‖ (Askari, 2010). CDNC was dissolved when Nawaz Sharif took over government after victory in February, 1997 elections. General Jahangeer Karamat then Chief of Army Staff in October, 1998, ―during his address before the Naval Staff College Lahore, ―maintained that a National Security Council or Committee at the apex would institutionalize decision making if it was backed by a team of credible advisors and a think tank of experts‖ because of Prime Minister‘s displeasure on the suggestion of General Karamat, the later submitted his resignation three months prior to his retirement.‖ (Ahmar, 2015).
220 Making and breaking of a council on National Security shows the wide gap in civil military relations which has badly affected the ability to make an agreed forum for a cohesive decision making.
Figure-178: Composition of Council for Defense and National Security (CDNS)
Council for Defense and National Security (CDNS) Joint Chief of Staff Committee with Amy,Navy President/Prime Minister and Air Chiefs of Staff
Ministers
Defense Foreign
Ministers
Interior Finance
This shows Pakistan‘s inherent weakness in establishing democracy as either it is not directly people but external influence that works in putting these in place which when not worked had been swapped with military. Pakistani capability can be enhanced with the improvement of democratic norms at all costs otherwise it is going to pay much more in the longer run relying on short cuts like military takeover under presumptions and notions of considering civilian lot not very capable and worthy of trusted with government. A good electoral system and fair election with accountability reformation in Pakistan can come up and can effectively enhance its national power and capability under improved leadership. Under the present international environment, Pakistan can no more afford to such short cuts, doing so is likely to cut Pakistan in size to curtail its national power by the powerful international political order. This caution should be taken seriously as without adhering to this kind of political correction Pakistan cannot be capable of defending its eroding national security effectively.
221 6.9: Strategic Depth: Is It Relevant to Capability?
Strategic depth in simple is a trouble free backward space when a state is facing a classic and bigger enemy from a main front. A strategy of strategic depth enhances the capability to countervail the imminent and major threat. In case of Pakistan, India is its major belligerent and Afghanistan a Muslim brother state and a natural extension for safety at its back. However, due to intriguing and not-so-good understanding right at the onset of creation of Pakistan with a mindset of British era legacy, both Afghanistan and Pakistan experience difficulties in making relations good.
It is experienced through analysis of events related to a particular regions that ideology or change of a political order rarely changes its pattern of geographical and strategic drives. Russians under Tsars or communists maintained their thrust towards regions outside their original boundaries with varying focus towards the South and North. Soviet Russia after its disintegration still strives to sustain its possessions in Ukraine and adjoining regions or influence as a last resort where retaining a territories is beyond its military capability like in Baltic States of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in the wake of a strong Western political and military and diplomatic resistance directly or indirectly. Russia‘s estranged regions‘ desire to integrate politically with Western Europe which has been achieved and now these are independent states almost out of Russian influence. All the three phases of Tsar, communists and now a mixed trend Russia manifests same strategic model with regard to their interest in regions and territories beyond their borders.
Modern history of Subcontinent with the advent of British arrival till the creation of Pakistan maintains the legacy of strategic dictates. After failing in establishing itself in North Western regions of Subcontinent, East India Company whose borders extremities were till Ludhiana considered Punjab till cis Indus under Ranjit Singh rule as a buffer and after it was annexed and it had a comparatively friendly government in Kabul by installing Dost Muhammad Khan after the death of British friendly, Shah Shujah who reconciled his earlier belligerent stance towards British, had Afghanistan as buffer between Russian and British Empire. After the creation of Pakistan and in the wake of former Soviet Union‘s southward drive and the new reality of India-Pakistan controversy compounded by the Western moves to contain
222 Communists, Pakistan needed to have a buffer against Communist Russia and a depth or friendly Afghanistan to countervail Indian threats from the eastern border. However, one thing that distinguishes Pakistani interest in Afghanistan is just its being friendly and not as possession.
Pakistan‘s initial abrasions with Afghanistan were on the overlapping ethnicity factor that in terms of Pashtuns dwelled on both sides of international border the British era Durand line that demarcated divide between Subcontinent and Afghanistan as agreed by Afghanistan Amir Abdul Rahman Khan in 1893 through a treaty. On the commonality of socialist affiliation both in Afghanistan and Pakistan the issue of Pashtunistan became a factor of estrangement between them. After British left on the eve of independence, Pakistan took over the most troubled areas in the North-West of the Subcontinent.
A chaotic Punjab due to hanging fate of Sikhs, an agriculture commanding community in most parts and closer to where Pakistan had its Muslim majority. In Punjab, both Muslim and Sikhs resorted to violence due to expulsions and migrations from their lands to the newly created Pakistan and India. North-West Frontier and its Pashtun population living astride the Durand line (now international border between Pakistan and India) with a tribal strip consisting seven clan based federally administered Agencies called in short FATA was always a pain in the neck for British Raj due to their unruly and independent character. Just after the creation of Pakistan Quaid-e-Azam Muhammad Ali Jinnah ordered military to withdraw from tribal areas. It has good effect and since the creation of Pakistan till the start of Afghan ‗Jihad’ against communist USSR no significant disorder or event took place at the scale which was seen during British Raj. Pakistan was threatened by India only from eastern direction due to unsettlement of Kashmir issue both India and Pakistan were contesting it militarily. Post-world war state nations were in fact Western political strategies to split major power blocs into small pieces of nations‘ dependent on one or the other power to sustain and secure them by becoming big powers proxies. Pakistan became an ally to US-led alliances that finally shaped into North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). That explains this argument.
What Pakistan pledged by becoming a NATO ally was matured for action with US‘s decision to wage a proxy Jihad against Soviet Union? All the developments and military supplies that
223 Pakistan got by becoming NATO and thus Western ally was internally based on the strategy to counter Indian threat. Pakistan became a conduit to provide logistics to Afghans and their foreign supporters hailing from Arab, Caucasia, Pakistan, Gulf and elsewhere hand in glove with CIA and other Western intelligence agencies. Jihad ended with the collapse of Soviet Union and with no further planning in sight Pakistan was left to build broken blocks at its own. Pakistan‘s capability to respond to its security threat characterizes with the issue of Kashmir and is relevant to its major rival, neighboring India‘s perceptions. Pakistan has been circumventing to resolve its security issues by finding solutions by becoming part of alliances that had no direct bearing on its security problems. Pakistan became embroiled in the international real politick that were pertinent to the power that be and have rather added to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma in so many internal and external security threats with the progress of international political developments. A pro-Pakistan government has been Pakistan‘s earnest desire due to its major belligerent in the East. It wanted a friendly Western border with Afghanistan as it could provide a strategic depth with no threat with a friendly government in Kabul. It could only be possible with the help of Pashtun dominated factions with whom Pakistan had long standing liaison and rapport since over a decade, as one of the handler of Afghan Jihad against communist Russia.
In recent years Afghanistan‘s intelligence services has been observed conniving with Indian RAW to stage sabotage acts and promoting anti-Pakistan propaganda. An op-ed piece in daily news which describe this nexus:
―Karzai is against the good neighborly relations with Pakistan? The answer is simple as he has been playing in the Indian hands for personal interests since long. He always kept criticizing Pakistan at every forum during his thirteen years of corrupt rule. Why is he doing so? The fact is that he has been getting millions of dollars from India on monthly basis to finance anti-Pakistan propaganda. He spends the money on media people, parliamentarians belonging to his camp, academicians and writers to propagate against Pakistan. Strangely, Hamid Karzai government has signed about a dozen of such agreements with foreign countries but there was no such reaction from the media and parliamentarians. Nobody talked of selling national interests at that time. The patriotism and loyalty of Hamid Karzai to his country can be judged from the fact that he had openly admitted in 2013, that he had been receiving stacks of cash from CIA and Iran on monthly basis. But no one could dare to question him why did he get the money from CIA and Iran, as being head of the state, and where and how did he spend the same?‖ (The News, 2015).
224 6.10: Nuclear Deterrence
Talking in terms of Pakistan‘s capabilities and response to security threat is defensive in nature as Pakistan lacks elements of power projection having no complimentary industrial base to build on its defense capabilities. According to Dennis Hevesi, ―Two events were the catalysts that drove Pakistan in its campaign to build an atomic bomb. In 1971, India defeated Pakistan in the war that gave East Pakistan its independence as the new nation of Bangladesh. Three years later, India exploded its own nuclear device, prompting Prime Minister Bhutto to declare that Pakistanis would ''eat grass'' if necessary to match India.‖ (Hevesi, 1988) However, it has made a detour and has acquired sufficient strategic capabilities in terms of nuclear and missile defense which has provided a retaining strategic defense line. This strategic capability however, is without full complements of self- sustenance. Nuclear power works to a limited scope and has the chances of becoming a liability if a state is not strong enough to project its stability and power to show an influencing state composure that can impress the belligerent enemy/neighbor and the international community with its deterrent value and awe, as it would meet so many international political and strategic counter measures that would render it just a shelf show piece. Morgenthau in his work, ‗Politics Among Nations’ asserts, ―A nation armed with nothing but high-yield nuclear weapons could draw very little political power from its military posture, for it would have no military means by which to impose its will upon another nation, aside from threatening it with total destruction.‖ (Morgenthau H. J., Politics Among Nations, 1991).’The lack of political and security influence and capability can mar the nuclear capability deterrence in anticipation of apprehensions of nuclear proliferation and safeguard, political issues projected by international community and anti- proliferation lobby or real one. Pakistan‘s nuclear program is so far fairly effective, it has become a security threshold however, but needs complimentary developments to exact a strategy for example a reliable and robust tirade of ground, air and sea launch capability.
225 6.11: Exploitation of Fractious Pakistani Society Erodes Capability and Response
Pakistan‘s major problem is its fractious society and foreign intriguing. Pakistan is suffering from a power vacuum. It is being filled by power that has their own strategic and national interest priority and would practically want Pakistan to be used than be assisted in fulfilling its own security obligations. The irony is that Pakistan is playing major security part by default contributing to who pay for it, as no one pays for nothing that implies that who pays and gets the services, it is as simple as can be commonly known. Pakistan is being given monitory and military assistance in combating terrorism. The Terrorism menace can be better dealt with negotiated mode than by indulging in heavy political and security cost. Pakistan should craft its own way to deal with the terrorism problem. Pakistan‘s advisor on national security said in a statement that US is being facilitated by Pakistan for negotiations with Taliban (Pakistantoday, 2015). Such a strategy has a similarity what Fotini Christina and Micheal Semple has suggested in their study published in the issue of July/August, 2009 that process of reconciliation will have to start in Pakistan owing to Pakistan‘s local influence. It goes on to suggest that such reconciliation based on ‗accommodation with the key network of commanders within the insurgency-rather than with the whole of the Taliban leadership‘ (Fotini Chrstina, July/August 2009). Now first, the US talks with Taliban are as a tactic means to pacify Taliban by luring politically to gain time and consolidate meanwhile. It doesn‘t aim at some kind of a peaceful settlement by quid pro quo or to give them a living space for a final settlement with them. What US is working is to establish a normal pro-West government with minimal and controllable level by raising an administrative and police order with mildly armed military capability trained by NATO. The American tradition of conversion than negotiated settlement with whom it take on at the global level should make this clear to Pakistan‘s policy makers. Pakistan lacks requisite power projection to annihilate warring factions by conversion. Going by US policy bottom lines will never resolve the Security Dilemma as it is apparently fights a common enemy but diverges in respective national interest and mechanism to do it. US‘s intriguing and covert working in Iran, Libya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Cuba, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Jordon, Egypt and elsewhere will not entail any restraint. In worst case scenario, which is not possible in near future, if there is a
226 condition and opportunity to strategically flip Pakistan in the oft-repeated and strategically modeled US way which in clear terms can be called military intervention, US has the capability and resources to do it without any moral regard and as it is based on realism, but is only restrained till the accomplishment of half pending work in neighboring Afghanistan to stabilize it. The cushion between US strategic accomplishment and Pakistani strategic behavior in this while will dictate the fate of Pakistan security. Pakistan will have to evaluate its security option independent of US strategic design though not by out rightly alienating it from its international obligation but by not going what all it is told to do. Pakistan, due to its political and asymmetrical military capability is not doing better and rather seems taking all that it can get, from drones to dollar complacently complying under the given international order.
6.12 Zero-Sum Diplomacy
Organization of Afghan Jihadi groups was aimed at defeating former Soviet Union. United States projection in South Asian region is to check rising China whom US wants to deny regional influence. There was no piece of cake left for Pakistan when it aspired and made a bid to avail her own part of strategic gain in the shape of installing Taliban in Afghanistan. After defeating Soviets in Afghanistan, Taliban became a strategic liability. Taliban after the Afghan Jihad against Soviets were of no strategic advantage to Americans. That is a reason of Mujahedeen becoming terrorists. Historically this pattern can be matched with the way British manipulated Maharaja Ranjeet Singh making it a sub continental buffer against troubled Afghanistan that it had only interest to use against Russia and subsequently its new version the Soviet Union with different ideology but same designs. In present times even it is just the Russia and not particularly its ideology that bothers Western powers as they are against lining up and pitched against Russia under the exerting rule of Vladimir Putin, pampering and supporting on the same model as has been done throughout history to encroach and push to where once Russia reigned. Forces of Maharaja Ranjeet Singh were fully utilized till his death when one of his son Sher Singh was jointly venturing into Afghan territories to help British advances creating a strategic depth by capturing part of North-West Frontier till Khyber and to install one of the British favorite Shah Shuja, like Hamid Karzai whom US installed as Afghan President after it occupied Afghanistan. Coincidently the
227 scenario is not much different, Taliban whose chief leader Mullah Omar is from the same clan of Afghans Amir Dost Muhammad Khan and Hamid Karzai the US picked ex- Afghanistan President hailing from the clan of great game time British favorite Shah Shujah, has commonality of characters, former being pro-West and the later anti-West, swapping US for British as leading driving force further developed into present time Western military alliance NATO. Pakistan extended geographical model matches the Ranjeet Singh‘s buffer state of Punjab between Afghanistan and British Raj that did no different to assist than what models Pakistan in its present role in war on terrorism. Khushwant Singh in his book the ‗A History of Sikhs‘ explores Western political crafting when British installed Shah Shujah died. Shah Shuja was made to rule Afghanistan through the Khalsa Forces of Maharajah Ranjeet Singh. British kept Dost Muhammad the rival Emir of Afghan under its protection across Sutluj at Ludhiana for an intended political move in future. Shah Shuja who could not stabilize Afghanistan became a liability and was killed mysteriously when English were busy fighting back with the Afghan opposition, just outside the Kabul vicinity. After Shah Shuja murder British, ―Decided to scrap the ‗tripartite treaty and make terms with Dost Mohammaed‖ and reinstall him… Sher Singh, one of the sons of Punjab Maharaja Ranjeet Singh, who was leading the Khalsa contingent of Maharaja Ranjeet Singh to help British regain control of Afghan terrorizes beyond Peshawar that was aimed at having Shah Shuja as a friendly Emir in Kabul and priced inclusion of the area North-West of Indus in Punjab Durbar. With the end of tripartite treaty in the wake of Ranjeet Singh and Shah Shujah death and the weakening State of Punjab, through intrigue or else this could not be possible. The shift in British behavior of the Afghan campaign in which Sikh under Sher Singh were playing a part ―He saw how they had used the Punjab as a stepping stone to reach Afghanistan, and having done so, scrapped the treaty without considering the Durbar‘s interests‖ (Singh, 1966).
6.13: The US’s Historical Model as an Ally Undermine Pakistan’s Capability
US‘s political culture of abandoning her allies at an opportunistic time has become a well acquainted model. US gets away with lion‘s share disregarding all others in an alliance. The
228 US‘s behavior puts weaker members of alliance in Security Dilemma. This historical account fits in the Rousseau‘s parable of a stag-hunt, ―Widely regarded as expressing the essential predicament of relations between states.‖ Rousseau describes, ―… five hungry cooperating to hunt for a stag. The hunger of each would be satisfied by the fifth proportion of a stag, but the hunger of one would be satisfied by a hare. When one of the men spies a hare within reach he leaves the groups to grab it, so allowing the stag to escape. His own hunger is satisfied, but the defection and the collapse of cooperation this causes leaves fellow hungry‖ what leads to further problems out of this situation is that, ―… even if each hunter prefers cooperation in chasing stags for all, rather than trying to help himself to a hare, the fear that one or all the others might defect as soon as the first hare comes within grasp leads to a suboptimal outcome for all the players‖. To paraphrase Rousseau‘s theory, ―to pursue ‗real‘ interest in a world pursuing ‗apparent interest‘ is a kind of irrationality.‖ (Williams, 2005).
This parable is a simple way to explain the Security Dilemma. Pakistan has to see whether it is a character reincarnated to play foreign assigned strategic tasks with assisted capabilities to hunt for an apparent strategic objective at the cost of real one which are vital to its own national interest or should it be deliberate and more calculative in its strategic partnership preferences as going by the flow has not worked that well. We see Pakistan is pressed to fights whom US want her for repeated ‗mantras‘ of ‗do more‘ with a flow of military and monetary assistance. It has acquiesced and co-operated often, out of the way. It is evident from the military and civilian causalities far exceeding the US itself that makes a heavy toll of more than 50,000 men and women besides children. When it comes to a Pakistan‘s security obligations on the Afghan border to check a border trespass involving US forces at the point of Salala, Mohmand agency, US retaliates fiercely with its lethal and disproportionate firepower and kills 24 of Pakistani soldiers who were manning the post. (Expresstribune, 2011). This dichotomy shows the insensitivity of US foreign policy to only use an ally for its own strategic designs and deny sharing respective strategic interests or a security measure. Can Pakistan discreetly examine the character of such a strategic partnership and the capability to adjust according to its own notational interest? That is what is going to determine the real capability which, if found lacking, will lead to a spiraling Security Dilemma.
229 6.14: Pakistan’s Response in the Matter of War on Terrorism
Pakistan‘s response has not been calibrated to have its say or way on the matters of war on terrorism as it shifted from its national stance to support diplomatically Pashtun factions, found mostly in Taliban groups, in the hope of their success to Kabul citadel and thus to have a strategic depth. The balance of power vacuum was filled with inconvenient acquiescence as Pakistan lacks conventional power as a foreign policy lever like most of the West has and what is much wanted to match with US Pakistan has not very vigorously contested its role on war on terrorism but has resorted to diplomatic murmuring to insert in its foreign office statement ‗terrorism in all kinds‘ that includes by the state and non-state actors and might include only those fighting Pakistan army and remains partly ambiguous about whom it actually meant as national menace. Probably Pakistan operations in North West province are meant to avoid US‘s direct confrontation and to eliminate what it deems a must elimination factor in the war on terrorism that keeps on priority those elements of Taliban like TTP who have become proxy mercenaries of Indian RAW and else to create a strategic chaos to keep Pakistan fighting them than to spare them to unleash against forces occupying their native lands. Pakistan has been vehemently blamed for harboring sympathy for Haqqani group which is strongest among whom Pakistan strategically courts.
6.15: Effects of Internal Stability on Response and Capability
Capability of a state depends on internal stability. The foremost element is its inherent and internal force, which comes with unity, national spirit and quality and character of its people. Nations have always been doomed at the hands of self-interest groups who sold the national interest for their personal benefits and in the end lost what they intended to hold and possess. Pakistan was created under modern political environment and conditions that warranted making of new nation states and breaking of most of the Asiatic powers including Ottoman empire, that created a piecemeal Arab world, and a divided sub-continent, a lame duck Germany, a defeated and dependent Japan and emergence of international regimes like United Nations Organization (UNO), World Bank (WB), International Monetary Fund (IMF) and else. In all these cases internal situation mattered. In the case of Germany and the Europe the national spirit to rebuild and the resilience to reemerge boasted the morale of those
230 nations and now they top the progress and pleasures of welfare state resting their sustenance on science and technology and above all military power. West developed and institutionalized their security on the concept of collective security that gave birth to NATO. A united West under NATO made inroads in Asiatic Eurasian and African regions as we see in Iraq, Afghanistan, Ukraine and West Africa, French and Italian military actions in Libya, US‘s covert assistance by deep ingress in Egyptian military brass and toppling an Islamic elected government of Al- Ikhwan was only possible through crafted and inherent instability in those states and regions. Pakistan too is not immune to such chaotic practices as it is already experiencing a Baloch insurgency, terrorist threat particularly in North-West and in the whole of Pakistan in general by TTP and the remainders of Jihadi resistance groups that threats, harms and haunts US forces and national interests and thus puts Pakistan under pressure to fight them at the risk of dividing its society deeply creating religious and sectarian divides and political discord. This all leads to create desperate and disgruntled elements prone to work for their interest by identifying them with the powers that be at the risk of national security. Pakistan‘s biggest commercial hub Karachi is hijacked by an ethnic political group that has been shaped into a mafia like organization who resorts to coercive and criminal practices to peruse its political agenda. MQM leader Altaf Husain is staying in safe havens of London and incites killing and chaos in Karachi through speeches he delivered telephonically. Altaf Husain is a political pariah defying scrutiny of his criminal acts. When juxtaposed to a character wanted by the Western on the same account would have resulted in a big issue with the state where he could be found. If matched with the famous case of Afia Siddiqui who was handed over to US by Pakistan government on their demand, Altaf Husain merits much above to be handed over to the government of Pakistan. This dichotomy shows seriousness of response and a lopsided capability gap and the state leadership quality, too complacent to assert much in diplomatically lacking levers of power and capability. This apartheid in international politics also adds to desperation and incites zealots. Pakistani response to the issue at the beginning of creation also reflects limits of its capabilities. Power drives policies and Pakistan needs that to develop. During the famous Suez Crisis (1956) Pakistan diplomatically was not able to give out its diplomatic stance as boldly as it warranted in the wake of its affinity with the Arab world. It could not express public sentiment with a bold stance to stop a joint attack by UK and France conniving with Israel
231 who by threatening Egypt and thus making a case for UK-French intervention. Pakistan‘s declared stance was attuned with the public opinion but practically its ruling elite consented to the Franco-British plan to attack and occupy Suez Canal to deter Egypt against its nationalization plan. While describing the Suez Canal situation Sir Morrice James the then U.K. Deputy High Commissioner to Pakistan writes, ―Iskandar Mirza was preparing to leave on state visits to Iran and Turkey. Mirza summoned me from among the row of diplomats who had assembled to Tarmac, ‗well‘, he said, ‗If you and French are going to do anything you‘d better do it quickly.‖ (Morrice, 1993). Pakistan has been seen less thoughtful and to the tune of being complacent when assessed in its response to critical security decision making like allowing drones, handing over its citizens for trial in foreign lands on the demand of powers that be, and ambiguous consenting the cases of foreign aggression putting it wide apart from public opinion.
6.16: The Relativity of Corruption with the National Capability and Response
Corruption has become a sophisticated crime by politicians and corporate bodies who manipulate government affairs by supporting candidates in elections and later when the supported one is elected getting benefits for their business concerns. Corruption is practice in so many ways by both in government and others. Government is responsible for making and approving development schemes, certain imports from foreign countries, import of military hardware and bulk national logistics for various purposes and internally making and executing development plans. In doing all these plans and purchases government have been allegedly involved in corruption by overbidding and promoting its own interest extracted from the mega projects making. The other parliament members who mattered in some way are projected are bribed for supporting the government on a political and heavy budget projects. Pakistan according to Corruption Perception Index 2015, was at 117 out of a total of 167 countries and scored 30/100 (TI, Corruption Perception Index, 2015). According to yet another report in 2011-12, 73% of people of Pakistan feel their government is ineffective in dealing with corruption, 77% thought it increased and in people‘s perception, politicians (76%) and civil servants (82%) were among the most corrupt. (TI, GCB 2013/Pakistan,
232 2013). This level of corruption hinders in national development as most of the money goes to the personal accounts of the politicians and officials and is not utilized properly to realize national development plans to increase industrial base. Corruption mostly comes through non-productive projects that contribute negligibly to GDP. Projects that are low on priority like motorways, mega mass transit schemes i.e. metro busses and projects like orange trains take away considerable chunk of budget. And what further haunts the national economy is that for these projects huge loans are obtained which cause a great burden to block better and strategic areas like health, education, science and technology, research and human resource with enhancing skills of people. The best way to enhance national capability is to expand, education, industrial and skilled based sectors as these make major contributions and components of national power and thus capability. Corruption eats up most of it. According to statement of incumbent Finance Minister, Ishaq Dar an amount of $200 billion was stashed away in Swiss accounts by Pakistani nationals. (Dawn, 2014). In another report based on the Swiss Banks itself was quoted in Indian Express newspaper, ―Defying a global trend, money kept by Pakistani nationals in Swiss banks has risen by over 16 per cent to 1.5 billion francs (over Rs 10,000 crore), exceeding that of Indians…As per the latest data released …by Switzerland‘s central bank SNB (Swiss National Bank), the total funds linked to Pakistan in Swiss banks stood at CHF 1,513 million at the end of 2015‖ (The Indian Express, 2016). This much amount it was just kept in Pakistani banks, would have enabled Pakistan to offer loans to others rather than taking it from the international donors and paying back double with interest.
As if this was not enough Pakistan was shocked to know first by a confession by the family of the ruling elite in Pakistan that they have their foreign assets not declared or what was denied before. Panama leaks by the International Consortium of Investigative Journalists (ICIJ) informed with any other world leaders, politician and elites running off shore companies worth millions of dollars without any declaration domestically. Pakistani Prime Minister‘s children own these assets since their childhood and as if they became entrepreneur at a very early age an abnormality that leads to trace corruption by the Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif itself. Pakistani court issued notice to Prime minister and his three children to reply in response to a petition filed by various political parties and others to seek
233 prime minister‘s disqualification on the charges of illegally taking money abroad and owning off shore companies which he did not declare and neither shown the source of the alleged amount invested through off shore companies. Pakistan Chief of Army Staff General Raheel Shareef had to issue a veiled statement on Panama leaks scandal involving the ruling family saying, ―Across-the-board accountability is necessary for the solidarity, integrity and prosperity of Pakistan. Pakistan‘s armed forces will fully support every meaningful effort in that direction, which would ensure a better future for our next generations,‖ (The Express Tribune, 2016).
6.17: Conclusion
National power is the total some a nation‘s power. Contemporary world doesn‘t depend on military might only as used to be the character of medieval states. Nations‘ geography, population and its skill play an important role in its existence and integrity. National cohesiveness and unity is a fortress against foreign threat. Institution harmony plays an important role in a cohesive response. National cohesion is a major power factor of nations.
234 ANALYSIS
Contextual Themes
The chronology of internal, external and historical constructs and legacies make the contextual themes for Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma analysis. The units of analysis for this study are internal and external factors and capabilities to fight terrorism and other security threats. Civilians and military causality rate, number of drone attacks, number of terrorists‘ attacks, major sabotage and terrorist attacks have been used for gauging the magnitude of threat perceptions and their intensity. The substance of this study and its contextual relevance has been analyzed to find out threats posed to Pakistan‘s security to measure and predicts the future security scenarios. False flag attacks, Indian/Afghanistan‘s involvement in sabotage acts besides the capture of American secret service agents and observations about the ‗Black Water‘ or ‗Xe Services‘ activities are categorized to deduct the factors of intrusive foreign strategies to coerce Pakistan into action in war on terrorism.
Content Analysis
The events relating to security and terrorism are based on the events in real time and not a distant history. My direct interaction with people and those who are familiar to Pakistan‘s security situation were prime resources to investigate Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. These interaction include seminars and symposiums held in University of Peshawar in which I got a chance to listen to debates and met high Western and US military and state department official that includes US ambassador John Simon Junior, US Army Chief of Joint Staff Admiral Mike Mullin Commander, famous Afghan historian Barton Rubin with Ahmad Rashid researching who conducted a symposium for their his article in ‗Foreign Affairs‘ journal. The former Pakistan chief of Army staff Mirza Aslam Baig was probed in one of the seminar on Pakistan Nuclear capability. Pakisan ambassador to Afghanistan Rustam Shah Mohmand and Brig Mehmood Shah have been part of discussions directly related to my study. Published interviews of 2 former Pakistan military chiefs, Perverz Mushrruf and Mirza Aslam beg are also part of this part to help analysis and findings.
235 My familiarity with the trouble spots like FATA and other parts of Pakistan also have been useful in understanding and facilitating to conflate and correlate personal knowledge with descriptive and co-relational research method resource, to shape regularities of Pakistan‘s security perception and response to make a research model. Since these events are happening in real time and in contemporary environment and not a distant matter of observation lost to history, therefore, degree of available data is most reliable and handy. Following has been concluded from the content of this study. The data has been empirically tested to assess the terrorism and security effects comparing it with the variants of operational inputs i.e. the number of sabotage attacks and causalities before and after year 2004, after the military operation in Swat, Lal Masjid Islamabad, and increase in number of terrorist attacks on institutions, schools and urban areas as retaliatory outcome or to coerce Pakistan into US intended action. Like the increase in attacks on security forces after Pakistan military‘s entry in FATA for military operation in 2004 and before that the increased number of urban sabotage and terrorists acts projected in false videos, which were though named on Taliban but were in fact were false flag attack and projection through media to blame it on resistance groups. This was done with an aim to project public perception against Taliban and put the government under pressure with this effect to do more and launch operation in what the US considered safe heavens in FATA. However, terrorists‘ attacks after the military carried out an operation in FATA and inside Lal Masjid‘ show a different character that is purely counted as Taliban retaliation with increased intensity which resulted in more numbers of casualties of all involved. This discreet analysis is necessary to characterize their true nature and purpose. This has helped in identifying and classifying from where the threat is being posed. The analyses have been done sifting through the variants, impacting Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Pakistan‘s certain securities strategies are portrayed as hostile actions. Our neighboring countries, Afghanistan and distant Western friends and allies play up certain of our strategic initiatives some time as compliment of terrorism in Afghanistan, India and threat to NATO nations‘ interest elsewhere. This makes them all band wagon against Pakistan adding to its security liabilities and dilemma. An understanding of Pashtun society through research would make Pakistan security strategies and policies more compatible to its apprehensive and estranged communities. Security Dilemma to any of the community of Pakistan becomes a
236 factor of Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Therefore, a studies of local phenomenon and causes of estrangement would help overcome threats by settling and satisfying basic societal issues and reservations. Such a study would creating a positive understanding as to good intention. This would create an approach owning a coming causes and a common struggle.
During the initial phase of Indian Subcontinent independence the struggle was against British Colonialism. A disagreement on patrician of Subcontinent into Pakistan and India in the later stage made some of the Muslim leaders look bigot. In essence it is not so. Bacha Khan, a Pashtun elder and sage like leader‘s Philosophy of peaceful struggle and one India has been misconstrued widely in Pakistan sections of society. This factor has led to a distasteful political outfall creating cleavage between Pakistan communities on wrong presumptions. An inclusive and not exclusive approach would help mitigate disunity and National cohesion. A fractious society is fodder of chaos and menace and a united one harbinger of peace and tranquility.
Direct ingress is another area to be taken seriously as discussed in chapter 4. Foreign ingress and recruiting of certain factions willfully owing to lures of life style or aligning with foreign ideology is a common menace to National Security anywhere.
With lesser development or lack of full focus on education especially in the remote areas of Pakistan, madrasas become a major reliance for the poor people. This results in to religious only affairs without any skill enhancement. Madrasas like any religious institutions have been found less scientific and more conservative in their curriculum approach that results in sectarian and inter faith divide and misunderstanding. Less Madrasas influence and religious education with a modern insight can neutralize a major factor that in some cases has led to extremism like Christians sect of fundamentalists. This extremist mindset became a motivational source, as discussed in chapter 3 of this study, and has produced suicide bomber resulting in most killing in Pakistan.
The historical, religious legacies like crusades and Muslim conquest also add to the negative narratives that provoke sentiments and hate. This needs to be overcome by regulating well researched education curriculum and discussion, symposia, and seminars at inter faith forums.
237 Figure-189: The Dynamics of Conflict
Foeign pressure False Resistance Flag attaks and Media /Retaliations mixed projection to Push Military Operations with Indian Pakistan for Policy /War on Terrorism /Afghanistan joint shift and Military sabotage activities Operations
Internally Pakistan will be prone to increased pressure from Nationalist, religious and sectarian sections. Pakistani‘s political and business elites involved in corruption and money laundering have the potential to create political disability that would double effect the security as it would be a welcome scenario for India to exploit and divert focus from Kashmir issue.
Externally India would be a major threat. India would try to create clients among estranged sections within Pakistan to mount pressure on military to shift their counter focus on India. India will increase her Low Intensity Conflict efforts to craft disability hedging terrorism narrative. Maligning Pakistan military would be part of main India agenda with the new generation of hybrid warfare.
Pakistan Nuclear programme is a source of added security threat. US and its allies want this to contain. Pakistan would be made to face tough economic aids conditionality with regard to any funding needed to balance her budget deficits.
Pakistan needs to enhance her self-reliance to increase her capabilities. A strong economy will only guarantee this. Pakistan needs to develop skills through development in education curriculum to increase National skills. It would promote home industry to lessen dependence on exports.
Pakistan response to her security dilemma lies in her own realities and not by towing her fate with any foreign alliance which has so far proven futile and her role as just a proxy devoid of any of its own strategic gain. Whereas the cost has been too much. Pakistan must focus on
238 regional first approach than reliance on distant unreliable alliances. However, a non-aligned overall International Relations approach would be the best option.
Pakistan will have to evolve gradually a robust accountability system and ensure Rule of Law. Its absence is eating it basic structure like termite eats wood. Nepotism and personal rules including dictatorship is major cause of this menace. A transition to mature political cadre is need of the time to curtail Landlordism and clan based politics. Pakistan needs to bar big industrialists and business tycoons to enter government business as it results in conflict of interest. A business tycoon and Industrialist moulds the system rule and procedures and all the major earning streams to his and his family business benefit and thus deprives others the opportunity to grow resulting in public discontent and insecurity.
The competition and tension among institutions will increase. International concern for democracy in which strong institutions are emphasised would weaken military role in politics and its comparative influences that would be shifted to other institutions especially judiciary, afforded by constitutional protection. However, under the reality of a wanting political leadership cadre military role would be felt in a certain manner for a longer period in Pakistan Politics.
Finding
Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma has been caused due to incoherent foreign policy shifts. The not-so-good civil-military relations and institutional imbalance is cause of incoherent military strategies and inconsistent foreign policy Authoritarian civil and military rules have rendered Pakistan‘s national security at the whims of the man on top lacking policy refinement and serious bureaucratic input The predominant military influence on foreign policy has made professional and skilled technocrats‘ institutions weaker resulting in blow back initiatives (i.e. Kargil), resulting in diplomatic failure and Security Dilemma. Pakistan role in War on Terrorism has been catalyst to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan is mistrusted due to not fully agreeable international agenda thus ambiguous consent to approve US drone strikes that creates internal discontent.
239 The radical policy shift and military operations against non-state actors on the rhetorical demands of ‗do more,‘ whom Pakistan supported with US as an ally in Afghan Jihad against Soviet Union, became worst security scenario. Internally Pakistan has been divided in political and military camps. The civil institutions have become partisan by the lures of perks and positions involving them for political and other purposes. These institutions due to civil-military estrangement are exploiting the situations in their favor as they are now interwoven in the political system manipulations and have lost their relevancy to system hierarchy as a government machinery to complement the policy formation and decision making process. Pakistan army due to off-balance institutional structures (in comparison to other institutions) has power and authority and limited ability to restructure and reset the governance system. What it had been claiming after every takeover has not been a new product but partial contribution not impacting or cast a viable and reliable governance system. Pakistan is losing influence in Afghanistan due to the increased Indian diplomatic influence in Afghanistan at the end of cold war. Pakistan‘s relevance is curtailed by promoting India in Afghanistan due to skepticism and mistrust. The lurking Pakistani situation is due to internal tussles and external strategic games and intriguing in which Pakistan is played as proxy or stepping stone with zero- gain
Civil and military leadership both have undermined the core issue of Kashmir by not linking it to the elements of War on Terrorism to pose it one of the cause leading to
terrorism in Pakistan People of neighboring Afghanistan are prey to Indian propaganda. Strategic complexities are portrayed as intriguing and intervention such as creating strategic depth by installing a supportive regime in Kabul. This creates cleavages and misunderstanding that has the worst impacting Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Misinterpretation of the addicts of Islam remains in the hands of less enlightened Muslim clergy, a major cause of individual and non-state jihad initiatives. Unregulated religious curricula is a major feeder of extremism.
240 Future Scenarios based on the Given Framework
Scenario-1 (Short Term) The civil-military conflict escalates. The political camp tries to seek foreign support for survival. India and Afghanistan are working to diverge and deflect army‘s reflex on the situation impacting negatively on its institutional influence, and established as a political reality. The false flags sabotage activities through foreign sponsored native apparatus to offset military.
Following is predictable in view of foregoing visualization:
Kashmir issue will linger for a considerable time War on Terrorism will consume much of the military effort for the next 2 to 5 years Civil-military tensions would rise but would render military to remain engaged operationally and less to afford to check political intrigues or involve in it The civil and political governments will have an edge due to democratic procedures that grants them legitimacy if not credibility Army would lose its institutional strength leading to increased threats to Pakistan‘s security Pakistan would surrender its nuclear program under zero leverage conditions and on increased foreign pressure
Scenarios-2 (Medium Term) CPEC gets geared up with increased Pakistan and Chinese joint venture. Army‘s image and institutional strength is increased. Civilian government is marred in corruption cases. Judiciary is worked to be effective and accountability process gets fairer and speedy. Emergence of alternative political party i.e. Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insafe (PTI) and masses become effectively active to impact the elections‘ outcome bringing in educated and energetic leadership role. System is restructured in next 5-7 years.
241 Following is predictable in this case:
Pakistan‘s security is likely to be affected further by Indian sabotage activity and by the Western affiliates and their masked governments in the regions occupied by the NATO nations Afghanistan would increasingly be the center of anti-Pakistan activities with the connivance of Indian RAW (Research and Analysis Wing) The militants‘ wings of religious and political parties would benefit from these environment and would become clients to anti-Pakistan forces. This would threaten Pakistan severely Baloch separatist movement would gain momentum Pakistan‘s military would engage in their own battle against the original cause to fight the battle against anti-Pakistani element at their own China‘s help would be limited and calibrated as they would be cautious of the terrorism factor not fully comprehensive and converging with Pakistan‘s position to fight the menace it would face critical to integrity to Pakistan. This would result in an acute Security Dilemma
Scenario-3 (Long Term) The Western powers and Russians covertly connive to support Muslim factions in Middle East and Pakistan, creating a civil war situation. Pakistan is stuck in situation with the scheme threatening, Mecca, which has a potential to becomes a matter of hypersensitivity for Pakistani government and a popular cause at the masses level. Iran gets bitter with Pakistan and supports its Shias affiliates to stage chaos to compel Pakistan to recoil inward to address security at home. RAW of India and NSD of Afghanistan contribute a composite effort to offset Pakistan‘s security capability to put Pakistan under severe security threat. Chinese moral and material support proves insufficient for Pakistan to ward off threats and confrontations emitting out of scenario-3. Pakistan is pressurized to surrender its nuclear and missile program in the name of protecting regions from the weapons of mass destruction. Pakistan‘s nuclear program is kept under the strict supervision of international atomic control
242 regimes and ultimately dismantled. The timeframe would be like 15-20 years for this kind of scenario to develop.
Following can be predicted as the consequence of a situation like scenario-3:
This would be the worst case scenario for Pakistan Pakistan‘s integrity will be at the most threatening level The whole Muslim belt from Pakistan till Tunis including Africa will become subservient to the Western political order Since the resistance groups would have either been eliminated or negligibly effective, they would lose their potency due to restricted operational space Pakistan would be transformed into a secular social and political order with the curbs on native observance and religious activities Within next 15-20 years no significant resistance groups will be left fighting back as the society reformation would be strictly monitored, engineered and constructed with the hyper media projection and psychological operational themes. Western values and education would be promoted, luring the next generation to assimilate them in newly crafted political and social environment There society swap faith with materialistic insensitivity to moral human values where marriages would break unprecedentedly and crime would be as higher as in any developed Western society, replicating indicators that the Western society shows us contemporarily Pakistan would lose relevance to the idea of its creation and would merge with the world as a Muslim country in name and else totally disposed off like any fully Western controlled enterprise
Scenario-4 (Idealistic Approach) Pakistan is able to set up a good electoral procedure, neutral judiciary and comparatively better political and civil setup, balancing military role in the national affairs. Corruption is overcome and decreased. Pakistan deters Indian and other threats successfully with strategic deterrence and is able to get comparatively better relations and support of the Western
243 nations vis a vis India that would also work better in case of an improved posturing with Afghanistan. Pakistan‘s trade and economic conditions are improved and the international imperatives become favorable to Pakistan due to China-Pakistan deeper connectivity and Russia‘s improving powerful posture and role in the region which the West would countervail with its luring and better policy shifts towards Pakistan.
This situation would result in:
This would result in the best situation for Pakistan Pakistan will try to be more vigorous in the war on terrorism to consolidate the opportunities offered by scenario-3 Pakistan‘s relations with China and Russia would get on a better course and improved leverage India and Afghanistan would be restrained due to favorable policy shifts towards Pakistan The civilian control over government will improve and would strengthen its roots in democracy In next 8 to 10 years Pakistan would transform its complete political system for better Pakistan‘s prestige in international relations and scene would improve The institutional scales would be weighed with these structural developments to affect balance The menace of terrorism would be eliminated or will become negligibly effective The new dynamics of the enjoinments would make better conditions for the resolution of the issue of Jammu and Kashmir between India and Pakistan Pakistan relations with Afghanistan would get better with increased trade and cooperation of all kinds Pakistan‘s security situation would shed off most of the threats and confrontations It will bring peace to Pakistan, region and internationally
244 Recommendations
Resolution of Kashmir issue should be a top priority of Pakistan. Pakistan needs a robust and strong institutional base Civil-military relations need improvement A dialogue system must be evolved internally to alleviate the internal discontent of estranged groups fully integrated with media Less emphasis should be on the use of force and more on talks and negotiations The intelligentsia and national security should be harmonized on matters that needs a unified stance not confusing it with freedom of speech generalities Relations with neighboring countries should be a top priority Foreign ingress must be scrupulously monitored and disposed without any delay A robust intelligence surveillance of the native collaborators should be done to caution easy going relations between their foreign handlers and their tentacles Pakistan must stick to its nuclear programme with unambiguous credibility and good command and control system and organization Pakistan should promote the true image of Islam without any sectarian tilt and the essence of its peaceful agenda Madrassas (Islamic seminaries) should be reformed and converted into proper government schools by national and international funding. Good International Relations based on neutrality with Afghanistan and Muslim world should be a top priority to improve diplomatic credentials. National Interest should be a firm base of our foreign policy to dispel our proxy image. Pakistan needs to evolve good strategic communication system to create a positive image at International level Extended network of government schools to remote and terror stricken areas of Pakistan will curb the tendency of ill interpreted madrasa indoctrination. Education should be free to the matric level with enlightened and scientific curricula to promote sagacity and curb hate
245 Pakistan needs to advance her relations with all the Abrahamic faith zones on the traditions and understanding of ‗meesaaq e Medina‘.
246 CHAPTER-7:
CONCLUSION
The effects of Pakistan‘s indirect policy of joining military alliances to compensate for its weaker national power and to get some leverage on its core Kashmir issue was at a very heavy cost. What emerges from the events in Pakistan history concludes that without a coherent and dedicated leadership and political order a sound policy making is not possible and lack of it invites threats and Security Dilemma. Pakistan lost lives and material and was engulfed by ever increased security threats. Pakistan is facing a security paradox. Its legacies have become its fait accompli and existing social divisions. Pakistan‘s doctrinal and policy think line is notional and not realistic. Its policies are devoid of cost and gain factors, divergent to its core interest i.e. Kashmir issue and its conflict with India. Pakistan‘s approaches to its core issue indirectly by pledging much beyond it can sustain and handle. Pakistan is intrinsically involved in international strategic controversies that have impacted negatively on its internal peace and national security.
The existential sub national identities sometimes clash with the national ideology of Pakistan which in the pre-partition times was based on two-nation theory. The sense of nationalism in Pakistan‘s ideology was based on faith and religion i.e. Muslim and Hindu. The sub national sensibilities and sectarian divisions in society have led to foreign intrigues and manipulations. Former USSR and USA made efforts to create their own blocks of political affiliates and sections in civil societies to realize their strategic objectives to compete with their international rivals. Adversaries‘ influence during cold war between former USSR by USA and in present times both Russia and China and others occupied regions by USA. This resulted in the creation of military alliances to rally all such political affiliates under one or the other powers of the time. What we followed was the consequence of the clash of two super power which created Security Dilemma for Pakistan as both either used it as proxy or tried to deter through intimidation and creating chaos. The latest alliance Pakistan has joined is 34-States Islamic Military Alliance under the auspices of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) against terrorism. (Dawn, 2015). This is yet another recipe which might lead to more sectarian tension in Pakistan as what permeates under this making of the new alliance is an
247 anti-sectarian and Iranian pulse that might deteriorate/aggravate/exacerbate Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Pakistan right at the beginning became engaged in military option on the issue of Kashmir which followed two major and occasional escalations with India which led to UN meddling and resolution but could not help address its security concerns and further pushed it relying on military alliances more as it was comparatively a non-industrial and lacked infrastructure to grow military power at its own, it opted to join Western Alliances oblivious of it future military and proxy engagements against communism, antagonism with Russia and the counter threats. With zero contribution to its core issue of Kashmir it became hub of foreign fighters inspired by the propaganda of political Jihad which created the Security Dilemma
The non-state actors have created a Security Dilemma where they act outside the realm of state and diplomatic order. Their perceived just cause bypasses the international order and the state apparatus leaving it to open-ended interpretation of being Mujahedeen and terrorists depending on the political expediency of the power that they serve as proxy. Pakistan since became host to these Jihadi and non-state foreign fighters in Afghan-based Jihad against communism in 1980s and when it was no more needed by US, became strategically redundant. The desire to continue Jihad further to where it exceeded US strategic interests made Pakistan hub of political pulls and tensions bringing it amidst non-state actors and foreign powers cross-fire making it an unprecedented security state.
The easy weapon movement led to weaponization and creation of armed political, religious and sectarian groups that resulted in Terrorism.. In an environment of a security paradox, Pakistan‘s social fabric was critically divided creating the issues of civil-military relations, political corruption and emergence of opportunists political, intelligential and establishment groups all making their own political pies that has resulted in more chaos and security issues.
India, Pakistan‘s primary rival removed the gauntlet of non-alignment and in the wake of post-cold war environment started developing its foreign relations with the West proving catalyst for Pakistan‘s international relations and security. India got all the favors for remaining even neutral during the proxy war against communists and rather aligned with former USSR whereas Pakistan became prey to the Western war on terrorism as it was asked
248 to put down the spent forces of Jihadis, the same lot that fought the Soviet Union and made it possible for the West to prevail over former USSR and end of cold war that became start of War on Terrorism yet another devastating recipe for Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
US installed government of its own affiliates in Afghanistan run through democratic procedures where Taliban were secluded from political process and resisted government militantly. Moderate and liberal segments of Afghan society were allowed to participate in the political process. Afghan people were alienated from Pakistan due to Indian influence as US thought and the new Afghan generation made to believe through media and other communication projections in connivance with Indian RAW that Pakistan supports its own side of Taliban groups with Haqqani network (a group in southern Afghanistan based in Khost adjoining Pakistan‘s North Waziristan Agency and led by a tribal warlord, Siraj-Ud- Din Haqqani). The new government in Kabul under the direct US influence connived to stage false flag attacks in Pakistan with the active operational support of Indian Intelligence agency aimed to create chaos and social harassment which were to be blamed on Taliban and religious cadres in Pakistan with an aim to dismantle anti-American occupation Taliban groups by defaming them in the eyes of general public who during the Afghan Jihad of 1980s were brainwashed to support them during their fight against communism. Taliban retaliated to what they thought was betrayal and what added to the already chaotic Pakistan‘s security situation.
Pakistan‘s struggle to seek strategic depth spirals the Security Dilemma as India aggressively endeavors to compete in exerting influence in Afghanistan. The Afghanistan‘s north-south predisposition and indifference is exploited by India in promoting her influence in Afghanistan. The northern regions of Afghanistan view the southern Pashtun regions with sectarian and ethnic indifference. Pakistan has mostly been engaged during Afghan Jihad against Soviets with Pashtun warlords and the northern side has mostly been either supporting Soviets or its Shia factions have been under the influence of Iran due to sectarian affinity. These divisions and lack of access to the northern regions have made Pakistan‘s strategic communication capabilities weaker. Thus the northern part of Afghanistan popularly known as ‗Shomali‘ has become alienated to Pakistan‘s overtures. The secular and nationalist Pashtun faction too with roots in Pakistani political arena has facilitated a
249 considerable portion of southern part too, lean and work for India. This all favored India diplomatically and improved its influential status and has a negative bearing on Pakistan‘s diplomatic and military capabilities.
Pakistan is pressurized to act against the Taliban directly and by projecting public opinion against anti-US occupation, Taliban groups who it had been supporting and organizing at the behest of Western powers as an ally. The Pakistan military operation that targets groups fighting its own forces was taken by the NATO nations with USA in lead as selective. This proved to be the biggest security threat Pakistan has had ever faced and has resulted in more than 50,000 sabotage related deaths of Pakistanis including personnel of Pakistan Armed Forces and civilians creating an new dimension to Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma.
Pakistan‘s indirect approach for the resolution of Kashmir issue with India increased her Security Dilemma. India effectively countered Pakistan‘s moves and had far better relations with Afghanistan at much cheaper cost to use it against Pakistan. ―Out of the 865 terrorists arrested during the last three years, a significant number had connections with India‘s RAW and the Afghan NDS,‖ (Dawn, 2016).
Taking mileage from bad security environment, other armed actors belonging to religious and sectarian groups played up and Karachi became hub of target killing, extortion, and political bigotry by one of the most influential political party who planted their armed wing in the city of Karachi to maintain their political control through the use of force and free weapons wielding. It also gave way free hand to other militants and mafia to operate freely making the prime strategic and economic port city earning for Pakistan its more than 69% revenue in shambles and chaos.
India did not miss the opportunity and it according to the government and military sources was involved sponsoring and organizing estranged political groups and patronizing the terrorists‘ groups recruited with the guise of Taliban to act against Pakistan‘s military bases using the theme of avenging what they called the Pakistan Army operation against them.
Sectarian groups representing the two leading sectarian patrons Saudi Arabia and Iran with their tacit support killed each other‘s leading scholars, men in their respective praying and worship places and elsewhere indiscriminately. Qadiyanis were also killed and attacked.
250 Blasphemy issue came up after it was misused for personal vendettas and became a tool in the hand of uneducated and illiterate sections of society to settle scores on personal account. Foreign active support to the person executed under blasphemy law meant to protect the honor of the Prophet Muhammad s.a.w made it look controversial and liberal and secular sections demanded to undo the unlawful practice of this law which proved too sensitive for the majority of the Pakistan Muslim strata. The murder of Punjab Governor Salman Taseer and later the hanging of his killer, Mumtaz Qadri was the highest point in this regard to project the issue of blasphemy and its annulment. That all made Pakistani security further in shambles as internationally such issues were badly affecting Pakistan‘s projection as a safe place for minorities notwithstanding the ground realities.
Pakistan has a poor education system and spends too less on education. Lack of national education and skill deprives Pakistan of good labor force that is instrumental in enhancing national power. Pakistan needs to prioritize education in its National Development Plan for the long term. It needs badly to improve quality and higher education which will contribute to its national growth and development. A strong economy is best security assurance.
The institutional imbalance in Pakistan is in the favor of Pakistan military as other institutions have been weakened due to politicization and weak organizational discipline and working. The civilian government due to weaker party structures and authoritarian approach within parties has not matured in grooming future leadership that causes leadership debacle every time a party chief is sidelined. With the party leader gone it creates void that is filled by the fittest among them i.e. army. However, after taking over it is always with the help and support of the party dissidents who serve under military leadership after they take over. This vicious political circle has resulted in stagnation and the political process in Pakistan has not developed far beyond from where it started. The absence of institutional hierarchy has resulted in inconsistent foreign policy and depended on authoritarian regimes civil or military to decide at their own. The state function thus has not been part of processing ensuring elements of national interest and national security. Pakistan for a long time will not get rid of this political gridlock. However, Pakistan, notwithstanding all these scenarios had been proving too hard to go down the way it has always been analyzed due to impromptu variants
251 and international strategic preferences. That however, remains out of the scope of this study but an optimistic note to end with.
Recommendation for future studies
I recommend a list of future studies which can help further insight into Pakistan‘s Security Dilemma. Pakistan lacks research culture which becomes an academic predicament to understand the problem leading to her Security Dilemma. Following studies are suggested for future Research and Development:
Social engineering and internal security threats to Pakistan after 9/11 The Western private Security Agencies operating in Pakistan and their threatening effects on Pakistan A review of security discussions in University of Peshawar framing the national and international visitors to international forums like International Relations department, Area Study Centers and seminars conducted at universities‘ level The security history of Afghanistan and its effects on Pakistan Pakistan‘s contribution to the regional and international peace, 1980-2016 Pak-Afghanistan international border, historical legacy and its effects on futuristic Pak-Afghan relations American influence on Afghan Foreign Policy and its impact on Pakistan Pashtun Society: Security Dilemma and Future Prospects Pashtun -Punjabi interdependence and Pashtun nationalism Bacha Khan: A Disowned Peace Activist
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