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Equity Research Equity Research January 13th, 2020 Monthly Andean Strategy Update No changes to our Andean allocation. Social unrest is the key factor in our markets In December, our market posted a strong performance in USD terms (Chile: +10.0%; Colombia: +10.4%; Peru: +4.9%), in line with the CREDICORP CAPITAL RESEARCH performance of LatAm as a whole (+9.8%). On local terms, performance was positive but slightly lower due to a strong appreciation of the local currencies. Daniel Velandia, CFA We remain Overweight for the beginning of the year in Colombia; our +(571) 3394400 ext. 1505 investment thesis is unchanged from prior months related to a better [email protected] topdown approach. ▪ The local index advanced 1.8% in COP (+4.7% in USD terms). This Carolina Ratto contrasts with a 9.8% positive return from the MSCI Latam. Despite this +(562) 2446 1768 performance during Dec-19, we highlight that the COLCAP index was a [email protected] major outperformer during 2019 (24.1% vs 13.7% in USD terms) ▪ Social demonstrations faded in December while the tax bill was Tomás Sanhueza approved; the COP appreciated 6.24%. +(562) 2446 1751 ▪ Our equity strategy continues to be focused on banks; stronger loan [email protected] growth along with major improvements on the asset quality front support our view. In addition to banks, we continue to like the story of Canacol. Sebastián Gallego, CFA ▪ Forward multiples continue to look attractive. P/E and EV/EBITDA +(571) 3394400 ext. 1594 multiples trade close to one standard deviation compared to the [email protected] average of the last three years. ▪ Our top picks continue to be Bancolombia, Davivienda and Canacol. Daniel Córdova We are maintaining our Neutral rating in Chile. Although December +(511) 416 3333 Ext. 33052 was a better month, uncertainty on the political and macro outlook [email protected] remains strong. ▪ Top performers during the month were mostly companies related to the Utilities and Commodities sectors that offer less risk compared to other names indexed to internal activity. ▪ Despite a slightly more positive buying activity, trends remain the same. Local investors having a negative bias, while foreign investors mostly buying through baskets. ▪ The constitutional campaign for the referendum is taking shape and should be the main driving force for upcoming months. ▪ The main question comes from the potential adjustments that earnings could suffer for 2020 and 2021. In our view, the local market is not trading at multiples that offer significant discount and let us be more optimistic. ▪ Our Top Picks are Engie Chile, Concha y Toro and Parque Arauco. We maintain our Underweight recommendation for Peru, in the absence of domestic drivers and latent external risks. • Despite the expected signature of the initial phase US-China trade deal, the second phase is expected to be much more challenging. • Private consumption remained resilient despite the overall moderate economic growth deceleration in 4Q19. • No clear catalysts for Peruvian equities in the short-term; we believe the government pro-growth decrees are in the right direction, although their IMPORTANT NOTICE (US FINRA RULE 2242) This document is intended for INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS and is not subject to all of the independence and impact will be felt only gradually and mainly into the 2H20. disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports prepared for retail investors. Credicorp Capital may do or seek to do business with companies • We maintain our defensive strategy, preferring utilities and covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm consumption-related stocks. may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity1of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their • Solid fundamentals at InRetail and Ferreycorp, our Top Picks. investment decision. Refer to important disclosures on page 24 to 27, Analyst Certification on Page 24. Additional disclosures on page 27. Actualizar Contents Monthly Andean Strategy Update Chile: No major changes in our strategy. High volatility and uncertainty 5 Top Picks 8 Colombia: We initiate 2020 with an Overweight position; however, we have difficulties to select names beyond banks 9 Top Picks 13 Peru: Moderate optimism on US-China trade deal 14 Top Picks 16 Valuation Summary 17 Economic Forecasts 21 2 Actualizar LTM Andean Equities Performance (in USD) IPSA COLCAP SP BVL General Index MSCI Latam 130 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg Andean Equities Fwd P/E (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average P/E FWD vs Historical 5Y Average 20.0x 30.0% 18.0x 15.8x 15.8x 20.0% 16.0x 14.2x 14.0x 10.0% 12.0x 10.0x 0.0% 8.0x 6.0x -10.0% -16% -17% 4.0x -20% -20.0% 2.0x .0x -30.0% Chile Peru* Colombia *Peru: vs 2Y historical average Andean Equities Fwd EV/EBITDA (12 month rolling) vs 5Y historical average EV/EBITDA FWD vs Historical 5Y Average 10.0x 10.0% 9.0x 7.4x 5.0% 8.0x 7.0x 7.0x 7.0x 0.0% 6.0x -5% -5.0% 5.0x 4.0x -10.0% 3.0x -16% -15.0% 2.0x -20.0% 1.0x -21% .0x -25.0% Chile Peru Colombia Source: Credicorp Capital, & Bloomberg 3 Strategy Summary within Andean Context Long view Short view (12-to-18 months) (1-to -3 months) Chile Allocation: Neutral (+) Attractive entry point in some specific names Fundamentals have become less relevant in the (+) Proper fiscal accounts responsibility to take on new social demands current context of social unrest that has been (-) Uncertainty on long term outlook for the economy unfolding in Chile in the last month. We believe the (-) Short to mid term impact in economy is strong, impacting performance of market will continue to be highly volatile, until there companies is a clearer sense of stability in the country. (-) Correlation to the US-China trade war is still latent (-) Weaker position of the government against the opposition Strategy: We are favoring shares that do not have a clear risk regarding new macro outlook and potential regulatory changes under the current scenario in Chile. Top picks: Engie Chile, Concha y Toro, Parauco Colombia Allocation: Overweight (+) Better operating/financial trends at the banking sector. The most important issues in the short term are: (+) Solid macro data that support our 3.3% GDP growth forecast. global tensions, oil prices, exchange rate (+) Stable rates & inflation performance, corporate governance issues/news, (-) Volatility across foreign markets. expectations on 4Q19 results. (-) Twin deficits. (-) Social demonstrations and labour market. Strategy: We remain overweight in Colombia. Our investment thesis continues to mainly rely upon: i) strong economic activity, ii) stable inflation and interest rates, iii) strong earnings momentum across the financial sector, and iv) special operations that may boost current market prices. Top picks: Bancolombia, Davivienda, and Canacol Peru Allocation: Underweight (+) Private consumption proves resilient, despite a softening in domestic demand IFS and InRetail lead our short term portfolio given growth in 4Q19. their exposure to domestic consumption and strong (+/-) US-China phase one trade deal final details are being negotiated; second fundamentals. Luz del Sur upgraded to third as the phase is expected to be tougher. expected public acquisition offer draws near. Engie (-) Uncertainty remains on the next Congress' composition, as political parties are downgraded mainly to give Luz del Sur more space. having a hard time attracting voters two weeks before the election (polls show ~50% Lastly, we are swapping Nexa Resources for blank/null votes). Buenaventura as the latter lags behind gold and (-) No clear catalysts for Peruvian equities ahead of the congressional elections. base metal mines and should catch up, in part on expectations about its 4Q19 results. Strategy: Trading ideas: We remain defensive as most external risks have not cleared yet and domestic IFS, InRetail, Luz del Sur, Engie and Buenaventura. catalysts are still not evident. Our portfolio is still exposed to private consumption and utilities. Top Picks: InRetail and Ferreycorp. 4 Chile No major changes in our strategy. High volatility and Although December uncertainty the market outperformed, the In December, the Chilean market was a strong outperformer in CLP (+2.9%) uncertainty is still recovering after two weak months in October and November (-10.5% in both high. October and November). This month the FX played in favor of the market’s performance in USD (+10.0%). Despite that the environment of unsafety, protests, and political uncertainty maintains, the economy had a break from the negative trend seen I previous months boosted the by the year-end holidays. The capital city had less protests on the streets which helped small and medium enterprises to operate normally. However, despite this break in the turmoil, the uncertainty is still latent, and the risk aversion remains. In terms of the market, some investors took a position in certain names that are not highly correlated with the internal macro scenario in sectors such as commodities and utilities. In terms of flows, the local investors are still on the sidelines and with a negative bias, while foreign investors are passively buying through baskets which has boosted the market in the past few day. Although recently the market has outperformed, we believe this is temporary and the interest for the local market will be low in the upcoming months, awaiting the first stage of the constitutional process that starts in April 26th. We continue to have a selective strategy, focusing on low-beta, low-risk names with limited exposure to the current cycle and higher certainty for 12-months earnings.
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