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The Determinants of Military Recruitment Policies University of Pennsylvania ScholarlyCommons Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations 2018 Patrons And Personnel: The Determinants Of Military Recruitment Policies Max Margulies University of Pennsylvania, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations Part of the International Relations Commons Recommended Citation Margulies, Max, "Patrons And Personnel: The Determinants Of Military Recruitment Policies" (2018). Publicly Accessible Penn Dissertations. 2980. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/2980 This paper is posted at ScholarlyCommons. https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/2980 For more information, please contact [email protected]. Patrons And Personnel: The Determinants Of Military Recruitment Policies Abstract This dissertation examines why some states develop conscript militaries while others rely solely on volunteers. I argue that two variables determine what recruitment decisions states make when initially designing their military. First, either domestic or foreign policymakers can dominate the decision-making process. These actors often have different perceptions about the military’s most important goals and how to achieve them. When foreign powers view new states as sufficiently important enough to their interests, recruitment policies reflect their preferences, rather than those of domestic policymakers. Second, the threat perception of the actor making recruitment policies affects how they approach military design. Major external threats to the new state’s territory constrain recruitment options in the interest of immediate defense, leading to conscription, while lower threat environments permit more freedom to adopt different practices. I test this argument using an original dataset of 224 cases of state creation and major regime change from 1918–2011, including original variables that measure different types of foreign military influence. I also use qualitative evidence—including archival documents and interviews—to conduct a series of case studies focusing on the Middle East and Europe that are designed to control for alternative hypotheses and establish the causal processes. The results support my initial hypothesis, demonstrating that military design is often affected by hierarchy in international relations. This research suggests important lessons for policymakers interested in effecting military reform by highlighting a role for foreign security assistance in processes of military design. Degree Type Dissertation Degree Name Doctor of Philosophy (PhD) Graduate Group Political Science First Advisor Michael C. Horowitz Keywords conscription, International Relations, Military design, Military recruitment, Patron-Client Relations, Political Science Subject Categories International Relations | Political Science This dissertation is available at ScholarlyCommons: https://repository.upenn.edu/edissertations/2980 PATRONS AND PERSONNEL: THE DETERMINANTS OF MILITARY RECRUITMENT POLICIES Max Z. Margulies A DISSERTATION in Political Science Presented to the Faculties of the University of Pennsylvania in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy 2018 Supervisor of Dissertation ____________________________ Michael C. Horowitz, Professor of Political Science Graduate Group Chairperson ____________________________ Matthew S. Levendusky, Associate Professor of Political Science Dissertation Committee Beth Simmons, Andrea Mitchell University Professor of Law and Political Science Jessica Stanton, Associate Professor of Public Affairs, University of Minnesota Alex Weisiger, Associate Professor of Political Science PATRONS AND PERSONNEL: THE DETERMINANTS OF MILITARY RECRUITMENT POLICIES Ó COPYRIGHT 2018 Max Margulies This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License To View a copy of this license, visit https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/4.0/ Dedicated to My Parents, and to Roxanne iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I have heard that a dissertation is not a sprint, but a marathon. It often simultaneously felt like both. Nonetheless, there were many people who made it not only possible, but frequently enjoyable. First, I owe much to my patient and attentive dissertation chair, Mike Horowitz, and committee members, Beth Simmons, Jessica Stanton, and Alex Weisiger. Much like the military patrons I write about in the process of military design, they acted as vital guides throughout the dissertation writing process and I expect and hope their imprint is apparent in the final product. Mike helped me by pushing me to think about the big picture framing of the dissertation and with careful consideration of the minutiae of my argument, right down to word choices. I am also grateful to him for the many introductions to other scholars he has given me over the years. Beth joined my committee later than the others, but her enthusiasm and attention made an immediate impact on me. This dissertation was initially developed in the first semester of my third year over the course of an independent study with Jessica on security institutions in post-conflict settings, without which it would look very different. Beyond this independent study, she also devoted many hours to conversations about my research and professional development. She served as a model mentor throughout graduate school. Lastly, I could not have done this without Alex’s close readings of all my drafts, which were a huge help in particular when it came to thinking about the evidence I needed to make a persuasive argument. I also want to mention my appreciation for the opportunity to learn from him over four semesters as his teaching assistant, which has made me infinitely more prepared for the teaching aspect of the profession. Mike, Beth, Jessica, and Alex: your comments and encouragement helped me through the hardest parts of graduate school, and made my dissertation much better. There are many others in the department of Political Science at the University of Pennsylvania I need to thank. Avery Goldstein, Julia Gray, and Ed Mansfield gave interesting and challenging classes in international relations that molded the way I approach our discipline. They also gave valuable feedback at many different stages of my dissertation. Marc Meredith has been a constant source of support, both in general and with specific instruction in statistics. I do not know where I would be without his willingness to walk me through the quantitative aspects of my research, or without the many opportunities he has provided for dog therapy. Eileen Doherty-Sil, Julie Lynch, Brendan O’Leary, Rudy Sil, and Yuhua Wang also provided important guidance many times along the way, and impacted my development as a political scientist. The expert assistance of Megan Kauffmann, Jenn Bottomley, Naya Blackwell, and Pat Kozak made sure everything ran smoothly at the department. I could always count on their positive attitude and solutions when things got stressful. Additionally, I learned a lot during my one year terminal master’s degree at Columbia University’s Political Science department. Richard Betts’s class on War, Peace and Strategy opened my eyes to Clausewitz and the world of strategic studies. Tanisha Fazal’s seminar on Civil Wars was probably my best introduction to the academic discipline. I would not have applied to or gotten into graduate school without her advice and encouragement. I am also immensely grateful for everything I learned as a research iv assistant for her and Page Fortna. In addition, it was through her that I met Dana Burde, who has been a dedicated mentor and source of professional development ever since. I am fortunate to have been helped by many others throughout the dissertation process. At Penn, everyone who participated in the International Relations Workshop endured several presentations of my dissertation drafts, and I thank you for your comments and for making the workshop a success. In addition to benefitting from his friendship, a conversation with Keith Carter in the graduate student lounge sometime in late 2014 provided the necessary nudge toward exploring a dissertation topic about which I had long been interested but uncertain. I also appreciate the panelists at many conferences, especially at APSA 2016 when I first presented preliminary results of my research. My archival research in the United Kingdom was much aided by the helpful archivists at the National Archives, Kew and by Debbie Usher at the Middle East Centre Archives at Oxford. Carole Brougham provided convenient housing and was a gracious host for my three weeks in London. I also thank everyone I interviewed as part of this dissertation, especially Jim Hooper, who provided the initial snowball for my sample of interviewees in Chapter 6, and John Drewienkiewicz, who spent an informative and pleasant day with me in Cambridge. Additionally, much needed and appreciated funding for my research was provided by the Feirson Family Fellowship at the University of Pennsylvania, the Browne Center for International Politics, the Teece Fellowship, and the American Political Science Association’s Centennial Center Second Century Fund. Of course, I would never have survived without the support of my friends. A strong, impressive cohort made the University of Pennsylvania a fun place to do a dissertation. Anthony Grasso, Danielle Hanley, Isabel Perera, and Robinson Woodward- Burns in particular were constant sources of support, and thankfully, distraction. Conversations
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