www.africa-confidential.com 4 May 2001 Vol 42 No 9 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL CONGO-KINSHASA 3 War economy A report by a United Nations’ expert A hundred days of Kufuor group on the pillage of Congo The new government scores high on political tolerance but is blames Rwanda, Uganda and their struggling over how to tackle the economic mess it inherited rebel proteges for most of the damage. The business activities No one can blame President John Agyekum Kufuor for the economic chaos he inherited on 7 of Zimbabwean, Angolan and January, when he took over from Jerry John Rawlings. However, plenty of Ghanaians blame his Namibian forces fighting on the government for its slow start. In the first hundred days, he has won high marks for handling the government’s side are scarcely transition and making government more tolerant, low marks for dynamism and economic management. discussed. There still is much goodwill towards the President and his New Patriotic Party. He confidently fielded questions when national television broadcast a press conference live from the Castle at Osu 4 – something Rawlings never allowed during his 20-year rule. Journalists are no longer ‘enemies of the people’. Kufuor came over as presidential but accessible, Storm after the in an inquisition managed by his spokesperson, Elizabeth Ohene; she and Attorney General Nana storm Akufo-Addo want the obnoxious criminal libel laws abrogated this year. Since the NPP is the party of business, it is obviously much warmer towards local entrepreneurs of all political hues. A leading Ethiopia is in political crisis after businessman, Kwabena Darko, was in Kufuor’s office throughout the press conference. 41 people were killed in riots in . However, the The government has begun to dismantle the militarist paraphernalia of the Rawlings era, stopping underlying crisis is a split in the state expenditure on the celebrations of 4 June – the hitherto sacrosanct commemoration of TPLF, one of the main elements of Rawlings’ first successful coup d’état in 1979. That was followed by the execution of eight generals, the ruling EPRDF. During two including , Kutu Acheampong and , all of whom had been military years of war with Eritrea, no one heads of state. They will now be exhumed so that their families can give them a proper burial. Kufuor spoke out in public against Premier Meles. But they are doing so now. has also authorised the return of a house allocated to the family of first President , confiscated by the Rawlings regime, and of the property of former Prime Minister Kofi Busia, confiscated by Acheampong’s regime in the 1970s. 6 Bringing the torturers and assassins to book The plots thicken A much slower and trickier business is to address human rights abuses committed under Rawlings. Security Minister Steve Tshwete The government favours a South African-style Truth and Reconciliation Commission to hear shocked many when he evidence from victims and perpetrators. Attorney General Akufo-Addo is enthusiastic in principle; announced that police would investigate allegations of a plot by the human rights campaigner and journalist Kwesi Pratt claims that more than 400 Ghanaians were senior ANC figures against ‘disappeared’ during the Rawlings era, with many more illegally detained and tortured. Yet there President Mbeki. Few give the is little agreement on how the torturers and assassins can be tracked down and brought to book, and allegations credence but many how this might affect the (so far) polite relations between Kufuor and the previous regime. Akufo- want to know the political Addo’s priority is to unjam and reform the judicial system generally. The backlog of cases, the machinations that lie behind them. corruption of legal officers and the widespread resort to direct action to enforce contracts or deal with suspected criminals made nonsense of the legal system. 6 Kufuor must also deal with corruption, past and present. Multi-million dollar frauds at the Social Security National Insurance Trust and the Ghana National Petroleum Corporation are under Exit top brass investigation and expected to rope in several former apparatchiks. There is talk of tracking down President Obasanjo’s sacking on overseas property bought by former officials, partly to bring home some of the ill-gotten gains, partly 24 April of the three service chiefs to deflate the reputation of Rawlings and his National Democratic Congress as anti-graft crusaders. – General Malu, Air Marshal Alfa Some lawyers suggest that the Quality Grain case (AC Vol 42 No 8) could ensnare Rawlings and and Vice-Admiral Ombu – sparked his Vice-President, ; they are accused of negligence in allowing the state to talk about coup plots. In fact President Obasanjo’s decision guarantee loans of US$20 million to Juliet R. Cotton and her Quality Grain company, which followed months of argument about promised 20,000 acres of rice and planted only 500. Last month, Cotton told a court in Atlanta, military reforms and US advisors. Georgia (where she is being sued by her erstwhile United States’ business partner) that some of the money was used to buy a mansion there and a Mercedes-Benz car for senior Ghanaian officials. Any POINTERS 8 attempt to involve Rawlings and Atta Mills in the affair would be a political as much as a legal decision, open to interpretation as revenge. Angola, Côte Just before his January inauguration, Kufuor told journalists that his first priority would be ‘securing the state’ – no small matter, given the number of Rawlings-supporters in the army, police d’Ivoire & - and intelligence. The appointment of his brother Kwame Addo Kufuor as Minister of Defence got Africa mixed reviews. Addo is a physician with no experience of the military and not best placed to sniff 4 May 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 9

out coups. Yet he has assiduously toured the barracks and key debt is now running at $6 bn. The cedi lost half of its value although military formations, effusively praising the soldiers’ professionalism. the cedi-dollar exchange rate has now stabilised to 7,525:1. No one is We hear that many of the commandos, Rawlings’ ultra-loyalists who quite sure why but it seems some payments are being deferred and were integrated into the mainstream army last year, have been foreign creditors are trying to give the government some breathing redeployed within the conventional military hierarchy. Addo Kufuor space. Growth in gross domestic product, which slowed to 3.7 per cent has welcomed closer military cooperation with Washington, which in 2000 from 4.4 per cent, isn’t likely to boom this year. Cocoa and respects Ghana’s army and wants to involve it in more peacekeeping gold earnings fell last year and their export prices remain flat. Foreign operations. American soldiers are training and being trained at reserves are at their lowest for a decade: enough to cover just one Ghana’s jungle warfare school at Achiase. month’s imports. Bizarre rumours circulated in late last month about a coup, Faced with the cash crunch, Osafo-Marfo and Kufuor decided to planned for 15 May with the backing of officers from the Fante enrol in the World Bank and IMF’s Heavily Indebted Poor Country (coastal belt) and northern regions. No one suggested the supposed scheme, annoying NDC critics, who argue that it labels Ghana a plotters had any links to the former regime, though officers from the bankrupt state. Osafo-Marfo’s response is ‘That’s right and it’s your Bureau of National Investigations have annoyed some old politicians fault!’ The risk is that, if Ghana gets relief on its debt, Japan (which and civil servants by their tactics in corruption investigations. Over- has just changed its prime minister again) will slash its bilateral aid zealous agents bungled the recent arrest of former Deputy Minister of programme, though the Japanese Ambassador promises that aid from Finance Victor Selormey, giving rise to criticism that arbitrary arrests Tokyo will hold up regardless. and detentions, common under Rawlings, were still going on. Some claim that the BNI deliberately leaked the story of an attempted coup Britain backs debt relief for Ghana to test public and military reaction, others that a genuine plot was With Ghana’s former position as IMF and World Bank economic uncovered by US agents. reform star in Africa, a reputation much diminished in recent years, The rumours did not fluster the Kufuor government. Insiders say its Britain has promised it will back fast-track debt relief under HIPC. biggest enemy is inertia. To get things done, according to some of The Bank and Fund, keen to keep their former showcase on the Kufuor’s advisors, the executive will have to throw its weight around reform road, are likely to agree. The HIPC debate, about national and push ahead with unpopular decisions – which would mean pride and worries about credit ratings, seems to have fizzled out. sidelining parliament, where the NPP has only 98 of 200 seats. That The Pro-HIPC group in cabinet won the argument because the technique worked under Rawlings but his NDC had a comfortable government desperately needs breathing space to restructure its majority and could be relied on to rubber-stamp executive edicts. domestic debt. The World Bank recommends Kenya’s approach of converting short-term treasury bills into three-year bonds; but if Finding the right policies the government is going to wind down its short-term borrowing, it Kufuor, trying to run a more constitutional and consensual government, will still need a pool of capital ready for those investors who didn’t has to delay tough decisions such as putting up fuel prices, selling off want to buy the bonds. state companies and cutting state jobs. The government needs a strong Then there is the government’s financing gap, reckoned at centre and some hard men, conspicuously lacking in a team said to be around $300 mn. Although the IMF and Bank are prepared to help ‘full of articulate gentlemen’. The President’s Secretary, Daniel plug the gap, they are demanding tough conditions: a 100 per cent Kuffuor Osei, and his Chief of Staff, Jake Obetsebi-Lamptey, excel rise in fuel prices and 300 per cent rises in water and electricity to at presentation but cannot make up for the lack of policy direction. bring tariffs up to ‘market rates’. The latest prices increases will Kufuor cannot spare the time for a national debate on the grave just be the first round. At the same time IMF and Bank officials economic crisis, especially the rising debt, budget deficit and inflation. regard the government’s target of reducing inflation to 25 per cent Ministers differ widely on how fast they should administer tough this year as ‘unambitious’. economic medicine and the gradualists are winning for now. Most At the centre of the economic crisis lie the legacy of economic Ghanaians want the government to stop the rot fast but their prescriptions mismanagement and the limited possibilities of generating revenue differ radically. The NPP’s business backers see redemption in free in the short term. Traditional exports such as gold and cocoa don’t markets and privatisation. hold out much prospect for higher growth this year; both cocoa Trades unions, harshly dealt with in Rawlings’ final years, give farmers and the mining companies are lobbying government for a Kufuor qualified support in exchange for more tolerant policies. This bigger share of export revenues. The most likely scope for growth week, they won a rise in the minimum wage from 4,500 cedis a day to is in the newer economic areas – food and commodity processing C5,000 – a small bonus for workers who faced a 64 per cent fuel-price – as well as information technology. Local entrepreneurs such as increase in March and doubled water and electricity tariffs on 1 May. Kwabena Darko are investing in new plant to process local foodstuffs The government was under heavy pressure from the International and raw materials, and a couple of US companies have started data- Monetary Fund to hold the minimum wage but did not dare to put an processing operations in Accra. end to its political honeymoon. There aren’t any signs of an investment breakthrough yet. The Kufuor has little room to manoeuvre. Finance Minister Yaw government and its diplomats have a tough struggle to bring in Osafo-Marfo says the government spends 45 per cent of national sceptical foreign companies. Many foreigners regard Ghana and revenue just to service the domestic debt – much of it caused by huge as mere oases of political stability in an otherwise turbulent budget deficits chalked up in the final Rawlings years. Treasury Bill region. To make them put their money in, the Kufuor government rates are almost 50 per cent, inflation is just over 45 per cent, according will have to persuade more of its own citizens in North America to the IMF’s latest figures, and a main cause is the outgoing and Europe (probably as many two million people) to do so as well, government’s refusal to raise fuel prices before the elections, when investing their money in productive enterprises in Ghana. Until fuel subsidies were costing some $25 mn. a month. then, Ghanaians will not make much of a living out of the goodwill Domestic debt doubled in 2000 to some $1.4 billion and foreign which the Kufuor government has generated so far. 2 4 May 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 9

society and the unarmed opposition. According to the rebels, the CONGO-KINSHASA agreement confirms that there are three ‘de facto administrations’ on Congolese territory. Further, Onusomba says that mining and trading are authorised by existing Congolese laws. A decree, made in April 1981 and still in force, War economy entitles Congolese individuals and mining cooperatives to prospect and The UN report on the pillage of Congo saw exploit mineral deposits, under rules distinct from those for formal just one side of the issue companies. The RCD has also tracked down a 1984 law to liberalise the mining sector, which permits citizens to sell their minerals to anyone A report from a United Nations’ expert group on the pillage of Congo- they want. The RCD denies that it is itself a trading organisation but Kinshasa’s wealth by outsiders is having unexpected consequences. accepts responsibility for the application of the law. A group of President Joseph Kabila’s advisors touring Europe last The UN report passes over in a few paragraphs the involvement of weekend to drum up financial support for the Kinshasa regime were Angola, through (for example) the creation of Sonangol-Congo, a bolstered by the findings of the report, released on 16 April: it blames company owned 60 per cent by the Angolan government and 40 per cent rebels fighting the government for the bulk of the pillaging of resources. by, mainly, the late President Laurent-Désiré Kabila; ditto for the Kabila’s aides insist the report will make it easier to bring in legitimate Congo-Angola letter of intent for shared development of offshore oil. investors and financiers: there is talk of suing Rwanda and Uganda As for Namibia, a diamond concession in Western Kasai has been for reparations for the plunder of resources. Then on 29 April, granted to a company whose main shareholder is the Namibian Defence Ugandan President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni announced in Kampala Ministry, together with an American and a Congolese company. The that he would be pulling his troops out of Congo forthwith. He added, experts report the official Kinshasa line that arms and assistance have however, that Uganda would also withdraw from the Lusaka peace never been granted in exchange for natural resources; the joint ventures process. The UN report accuses Museveni’s brother Salim Saleh of are ‘a sign of gratitude rather than an incentive to maintain assistance’. involvement in mineral exploitation in the Congo, a charge Museveni vehemently rejects. connections Alongside Museveni’s announcement, one of his rebel protégés in On Zimbabwe’s involvement, the report cites ‘incentives to military Congo, Jean-Pierre Bemba of the Front pour la Libération du assistance by means of concessions’ to various companies – Sengamines, Congo, strongly rejected the UN report’s findings and a joint venture by Zimbabwean officials; and Comiex, a firm controlled recommendations. The report strongly condemns the Congolese by Kabila Senior and Oryx Zimcon (in which Omani millionaire rebels and their patrons, the governments of Uganda, Rwanda and Thamer al Shanfari was a lead investor), which was granted diamond Burundi, and proposes an embargo on exports of minerals and timber concessions in Tshibua belonging to Minière de Bakwanga (Miba), plus from those countries and from rebel-controlled areas of Congo; the others at Senga-Senga in Western Kasai (AC Vol 41 No 11). Similarly, prosecution of rebel leaders, including Bemba; payment of damages the report mentions the granting (dated February 2001) of cobalt and by the offending states and groups; and freezing the assets both of their copper concessions in the Katanga Copperbelt to the Kabambola leaders and of the companies which were their customers. Mining Corporation group, under the management of John Bredenkamp The report frankly admits that its collection of facts is not balanced. (AC Vol 42 No 6 & Vol 41 No 11). ‘Material is plentiful about Uganda, Rwanda, the RCD-Goma Several Western intelligence sources, including French ones, have [Rassemblement Congolais pour la Démocratie], the RCD-ML reported the presence of North Korean instructors in Katanga, in [Mouvement de Libération] and the MLC [Mouvement pour la connection with the grant of a uranium concession at Shinkolobwe. The Libération du Congo]. On the other hand, the quantity and quality of UN team treats this story as unconfirmed and fails to mention North the information available on Angola, Namibia and Zimbabwe is far Korean involvement in Afridex, a company which made explosives for less, although the Group visited those countries. This lack of balance Gécamines – and for the government’s Forces Armées Congolaises. is reflected in the report’. The UN report correctly identifies some acts of pillage. Like Human On the trade in minerals, the report focusses on those found in rebel- Rights Watch, it tells of 1,500 Rwandan prisoners at Numbi, Kalehe controlled areas – colombo-tantalite (coltan), diamonds, gold and District, who were forced to mine coltan while under guard by troops of cassitirite (tin-bearing ore). It admits that it should have considered the Armée Patriotique Rwandaise. It mentions that, starting in November other products, such as copper and cobalt from Katanga, where the 1998, Rwandan soldiers and their RCD allies took stocks from the Zimbabwean army is in control, but ‘lack of time’ meant that they were Société Minière et Industrielle du Kivu (Sominki). Some 2,000-3,000 not subjected to a ‘systematic study’. In other words, the report is one- tonnes of cassitirite and 1,000-1,500 tn. of coltan were transported to sided. Its basic proposition is that activities carried on without Kigali in 1998-99. authorisation from the ‘legitimate government’ in Kinshasa are The report quotes ‘reliable sources’ who claim that the main unlawful. Yet the Kinshasa government was itself set up by the shareholders of Uganda’s Victoria Group are President Museveni’s uninvited forces of Rwanda, Uganda and Angola, and its democratic brother Salim Saleh (Khaleb Akandwanaho) and his wife Jovia. Victoria credentials are no stronger than those of the rebels. trades in Congolese diamonds, gold and coffee and has also been Adolphe Onusomba of the RCD-Goma has complained directly to accused, the report states, of currency counterfeiting. A company called the President of the UN Security Council, Britain’s Jeremy Trinity, run by Aseenyi Tibasima, Second Vice-President of the Greenstock, appealing to the principles of the Lusaka agreement of Ugandan-backed RCD-ML (initially based in Kisangani, now in Bunia) August 1999. He agrees that Lusaka involves re-establishing state is described as a front for the business activities of Salim Saleh and his authority throughout Congo, but not necessarily that of the current wife in Congo’s Orientale Province. government. Lusaka is intended to produce legitimate institutions, General James Kazini, a former Commander of Uganda’s People’s through inter-Congolese negotiations involving the Kabila government, Defence Force in Congo, is repeatedly accused of having ordered his the rebels (who would have equal status under the agreement), civil troops, in late August 1998, to remove stocks of high-value timber from 3 4 May 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 9

Amex-Bois, at Bagboka, and of having confiscated the entire timber and a solitary English-speaker, Mel Holt (USA). stock of La Forestière company. Kazini is also said to have organised The experts’ recommendations would put the squeeze on Rwanda the confiscation of coffee, in Equateur Province in January 1999. The and Uganda if it persuaded the international donors to restrict those UN group also claims to have evidence that Museveni’s family has countries’ funds. However, that would not stabilise Congo. The inter- shares in a company working in the Ituri, called Dara Great Lake Congolese dialogue will not work unless Joseph Kabila agrees to Industries (DGLI), which is said to have failed to observe international reactivate the political parties – but when Etienne Tshisekedi wa standards when exporting hardwoods to customers in several Malumba of the Union pour la Démocratie et le Progrès Social came industrialised countries. home from exile on 23 April, the thousands who greeted him at the Yet the report’s analysis is often weak. It assumes that all Rwanda’s airport were promptly driven off by Kinshasa’s security forces. exports of coltan and cassitirite were of Congolese origin. Rwanda Tshisekedi’s followers will not easily accept dictatorship. Bemba itself, though, has small deposits of the same minerals and the will not hand over his territory without a struggle. Rwanda will not European Investment Bank once financed a tin-smelter there. Equally, pull out its forces until the former regime’s Forces Armées Rwandaises an embargo on Uganda’s exports of gold and tantalite would affect and Interahamwé militias have been neutralised; in Kivu, the war genuine local products, not just stuff stolen from Congo-K. The continues with RCD-Goma and Rwandan troops on one side, with minerals are said to have been shipped by the Belgian airline Sabena ranged against them ex-FAR soldiers, the Mai-Mai and Burundi’s and (through Mombasa and Dar es Salaam) by SDV, a French opposition Hutu-led militia, the Forces pour la Défense de la transport firm. These accusations remain unproven. Sabena points Démocratie. It is hard to imagine the Kigali regime accepting defeat out that, when the report was being written, there was no restriction on other than by force of arms. export of minerals from Congo. The report confirms that Aziza Kulsum Gulamali is a main ETHIOPIA exporter of coltan. It records that Jean-Pierre Bemba took over 200 tn. of coffee-beans belonging to SCIBE, a company owned by his father, Jean Bemba Saolona. It mentions factories dismantled by the Rwandan army, which is believed to have stolen spare parts from the Storm after the storm Kiliba refinery in South Kivu. It also recalls that, under Kabila Snr., A split in the dominant party may be good for large companies made daily or weekly cash contributions to presidential national unity funds, listed in the accounts as ‘parafiscal taxation’, a system coordinated by former Minister of State Pierre-Victor Mpoyo. Miba Ethiopia is in political crisis. In most countries, this would be natural kicked a share of its profits back to the President and all significant after such riots as those of 17 and 18 April. Perhaps 41 people were companies, nationalised or not, were expected to open special accounts killed (according to hospital figures), while more than 400 were at the Banque de Commerce et du Développement. The UN experts injured and over 3,000, mainly students, were arrested. However, the censure none of this but call for the prosecution of Jean-Pierre Bemba country is in fact in crisis because of the split in the ruling group – not and Aziza Kulsum Gulamali. the formally ruling coalition, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front but one of its components, the Tigray People’s Missed targets Liberation Front. The TPLF pulls the strings and provides the Prime Moreover the report misses some relevant targets. In 1999, Ernest Minister, (AC Vol 42 Nos 4 & 6). During two years of Wamba dia Wamba’s wing of the RCD-Kisangani (backed by war with Eritrea, nobody spoke out in public against Meles. Now, Uganda) authorised Gilbert Albert Ziegler aka Van Brink, an like his Eritrean counterpart President Issayas Aferworki, he faces American citizen and boss of the First International Bank of Grenada, pent-up grievances from his own faction. to open a private central bank in Kisangani and to issue a new currency Despite appearances, the TPLF has never been monolithic but backed by gold and diamonds. Similarly, on 22 February 2001, thanks partly to Meles himself, has managed to preserve a certain Sominki signed a pre-agreement handing over all its tin-ore concessions consensus and policy coherence. The TPLF’s last public row was in to Medival Minerals Limited, based in Kigali and represented by 1994-95, ending when Meles’s critics, including the then Defence Chris Hubert. Minister, Siye Abraha, were posted back to Tigray and out of the way. The report provides ammunition for the Kinshasa government’s The latest, more serious, quarrel involves almost half of the Central suit at the International Court at the Hague, where it is demanding Committee and it threatens the Front’s unity and its control of the reparations from the governments of Burundi, Rwanda and Uganda. It EPRDF. has also upset the delicate balance of the Lusaka agreement, which Things came out into the open with a Marxist-style procedural row enabled the RCD and MLC rebels to regard themselves as equal in March, when twelve Committee members walked out of a meeting. negotiators with Kinshasa. If the Security Council followed its Meles and 17 remaining supporters suspended the dissidents, labelling experts’ recommendations, it would criminalise some of those who them a ‘clique’, a serious sin in TPLF terminology. The clique replied are supposed to be partners in negotiations – which might match the with yet more procedural finesse, saying it had not been suspended general intention of Brussels and Paris, and to a lesser extent of Berlin, since there had been no quorum when the decision was taken. This Washington and London, to stabilise the regime of Kabila Junior. That quibbling veils a real debate about the TPLF’s future. may just stiffen rebel resolve. Later this year, the EPRDF is to hold a congress. All its constituent The report strengthens the rebels’ assumption that the UN has sided parties – the TPLF, Amhara National Democratic Movement, Oromo against them. The RCD, always suspicious of France and nervous People’s Democratic Organisation and Southern Ethiopian Peoples’ about the Moroccan UN soldiers in Kisangani, points out that three Democratic Front – are supposed to evaluate their own records first. members of the panel were from countries with close ties to Paris – an The TPLF’s own congress is due in June or July and its Central Ivorian (Safiatou Ba-N’Daw), a Cameroonian (François Ekoko) Committee began its evaluation last September. By January, it had and a Senegalese (Moustapha Tall) – with one Swiss (Henri Maire) grown hard to conceal the divisions. 4 4 May 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 9

The anti-Meles group included five members of the TPLF Politbureau elections; its vigorous manipulation of the electoral process was quite who have helped to make the party what it is: Tewolde Woldemariam, unnecessary. The trouble this caused is still felt in the Hadiya area of head of organisational affairs; Abaye Tsehaye, former Secretary the Southern Regional State, where the opposition won. Special General; , President of Tigray Regional State; Siye forces are deployed and have killed some thirty civilians during the Abraha, ex-Defence Minister; Alemseged Gebreamlak, head of past year). Political Affairs. Seven Central Committee members allied with them The paradoxical effect of the TPLF’s crisis is that it has pushed included former federal Police Commissioner Hasan Shifa and Bitew Meles to call in the other EPRDF parties, which he has in the past taken Belay, head of Regional State Issues in the Premier’s office. Siye is for granted. An extraordinary meeting of the EPRDF Council in usually regarded as the leader of the group but the real organiser is March backed Meles, who afterwards claimed victory flanked by Tewolde. They form a respected group within the party and all belong Kumsa Demksa, Secretary of the Oromo People’s Democratic to ‘Terarotch Yanketekete Tiwlide’ (‘the generation which shook the Organisation (OPDO) and Oromo regional state President; Abate mountains’). Kisho, regional President of the Southern Nationalities Region; Kassu Ilala, national Deputy Premier and Chairperson of the Southern Moving mountains Ethiopian Peoples’ Democratic Front; and Addisu Legesse, EPRDF The pro-Meles group, known as the ‘Palace group’, includes Foreign Vice-Chairperson and Chairperson of the Amhara National Democratic Minister Seyoum Mesfin, Ambassador to Washington Berhane Gebre Movement. Days later, several other EPRDF surrogate regional Christos and security chief Kinfe Gebremedhin. The anti-Meles parties backed him, too. group, known as the ‘Tewolde clique’, has been attacking on three In recent weeks, all dissidents have been suspended from the TPLF fronts. On the ideological front, it says the others have been selling out Central Committee and excluded from party meetings. Now their jobs to capitalism, abandoning ‘popular revolutionary democracy’ in favour are being taken away. Siye Abraha has been dismissed as Effort of a ‘bourgeois’ alternative, dropping anti-imperialism and being Chairperson and replaced by Meles-loyalist Arkebe Ouqubye. Siye ready to accept partnership with the United States and international no longer heads Ethiopian Airlines; his brother Assefa Abraha has financial institutions. Meles accuses his critics of ‘Bonapartism’; he been ousted from control of the Privatisation Agency and the State has indeed been looking to the free-market economy, in a limited Development Agency; corruption allegations have been flying around. version combined with state capitalism and state ownership of all land. Meanwhile, Alemseged Gebreamlak and Abaye Tsehaye have been All is not economically rosy. Both sides have been naming names dropped as prime-ministerial advisors. in corruption allegations, fuelled by the current investigation of the Endowment Fund for the Rehabilitation of Tigray (Effort), a consortium Controlling the media of companies mostly headed by TPLF Central Committee members. Meles is concerned about Tigray Regional State. Delegates for the At the heart of these disputes lie the TPLF’s control of private-sector TPLF congress are picked by conferences held in its four zones – and enterprises and Effort’s efforts to expand into other regional states. most of the dissidents spend far more time there than Meles himself, State capitalism notwithstanding, Meles has indeed tilted towards in close contact with the party rank and file. Nevertheless, Meles has the international institutions. In a welcome boost to his economic kept control of the Regional State Council, which in mid-April sacked strategy, the Paris Club agreed on 5 April to reschedule or cancel Gebru Asrat as President, replacing him with his deputy, Tsegaye nearly 70 per cent of debts of US$430 million; in March, the Berhe, and expelled three other anti-Meles Executive Committee International Monetary Fund produced a loan of $112 mn. and agreed members, including Gebru’s wife, Yewubmar Asfaw. When Gebru to back Ethiopia’s poverty reduction programme. claimed the meeting was unconstitutional, Meles purged the TPLF’s The critics’ second prong of attack is the war strategy: they complain media outlets: Gebremeskel Hailu, head of the Tigray radio, Voice that the victory over Eritrea was less than it should have been, of Woyane, lost his place on the Executive; Ato Atakiltie, Editor-in- suggesting this is explained by the Eritrean origins of some in Meles’s Chief of the TPLF paper Woyine, and Mulugeta Gessesse, Manager faction. The Palace group (not clique) angrily retorts that this is of Mega Printing, were sacked. More media firings are expected. ‘below the belt’. Meles is more vulnerable to criticisms that his team Some nervous dissidents have changed sides. Hasan Shifa, who failed to recognise that Asmara was preparing for war, then failed to recanted from a hospital bed, remains on the Tigray State Council. prepare for it themselves and later agreed to unacceptable terms Abaye Tsehaye wrote an open letter to party members defending the (proposed by the Organisation of African Unity) to end it. They blame right to criticise policy and attacking the suspension of the dissidents him personally for the defeat at Tserona in March 1999 and for halting by Meles but also describing their walk-out as ‘a contravention of the advance on Asmara in June 2001. Yet Meles can still apparently democratic principles’. He raised three options for the Tewolde count on the army, depoliticised in 1994 when soldiers were banned group: to sort things out at congress, to form another party or to return from party membership. to the Central Committee. Tsehaye prefers the last option and is Some dissidents seem to want to reconquer Eritrea, saying that expected to make his peace with Meles soon. In the meantime, the Ethiopia should never have given up the port of Assab and that TPLF rolling meetings have continued, leaving many embassies ‘Ethiopia and Eritrea are in a state of war’. This view, incidentally, under-staffed as a result. unites them with nationalists and some other opposition members who Before the war with Eritrea, Meles was widely perceived as a argue that Ethiopia has a moral and historic right to Assab. Opposition Tigrayan rather than an Ethiopian leader, emphasising the roles of the claims that Meles had an unpublicised meeting with Issayas in Saudi federal states rather than of national institutions. To win the war, he Arabia on 23-5 April will only inflame his critics, even if they are summoned up Ethiopian nationalism to combat Eritrean nationalism. welcome elsewhere. Now Ethiopian nationalism is helping to beat the Tigrayan hardliners. The third prong of attack is political liberalisation (such as it is), The Amhara and Oromo, in particular, used to be cautious towards devolution and the federal experiment. Provided the kernel of power Meles. Now they can demand a high price for their support, including remains in Tigrayan hands, Meles supports a greater role for the a much greater role within the EPRDF. Tigrayan political domination regional states than do his critics. The EPRDF easily won May’s is beginning to look distinctly fragile. 5 4 May 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 9

not go into exile. His business affairs keep him very busy (with SOUTH AFRICA setbacks, as well as successes) and at 48, he’s a year younger than Mbeki and can afford to wait. He’ll still be around in 2004. One newspaper report suggests there will be challengers next year for all five top ANC posts – president, deputy president The plots thicken (Zuma), chairperson (Lekota), secretary general (Kgalema Allegations of conspiracies against Mbeki are Motlanthe) and treasurer general (Mendi Msimang). The widening ANC divisions opposition Democratic Alliance hopes so, encouraged by ex- President F.W. de Klerk’s decision to join it. Within the ANC the The Minister of Safety and Security, Steve Tshwete, is not known idea is spreading that it could regroup as a set of rival parties, now for political finesse. Nevertheless, he had to be taken seriously that it’s no longer a liberation movement stuck in its tripartite and when he announced that the police would investigate allegations of what many see as outdated alliance with the South African Congress a life-threatening plot by senior African National Congress figures of Trade Unions and the SA Communist Party. against President . Despite the torrent of criticism Its partners may not want to quit the alliance but they object that Mbeki has been drawing on AIDS and Zimbabwe (AC Vol 42 vigorously to the use of police and intelligence services to investigate No 8), a serious challenge to his leadership of the ANC and the what they see as legitimate lobbying by aspiring candidates. Cosatu nation looked unthinkable. Tshwete had made it look not only says Tshwete’s statements were irresponsible. possible but probable. Cosatu General Secretary Zwelinzima Vavi said: ‘We are sending Mbeki’s re-election as President of the ANC is due at its national a warning that nobody should be tempted to settle a score of a conference in December 2002. In July, congresses will be held in purely political and democratic nature within the structures of the the nine provinces and these choose the delegates for the national ANC and the Alliance by involving the might of the state’, adding conference. Rivals, if any, have little time for lobbying. All ANC that the government’s treatment of the allegations could turn South branches have a say in the choice of delegates and some small Africa into a ‘banana republic’ (for once, potential investors may branches have just over the minimum of 100 members. It would be agree with him). hard to subvert the party, especially since Mbeki’s supporters have It’s still not clear whether Tshwete named the three men on deployed key officials in the branches. orders from Mbeki or with his tacit consent. The Minister, in a Xhosa-language TV interview, did not volunteer the names but Tshwete’s alleged plotters gave them in answer to a question. Perhaps he simply made a silly 1. , former General Secretary of the National mistake? Mbeki is smart and must understand that smearing Union of Mineworkers, chief negotiator with the regime, possible rivals can only give them valuable publicity, at a time former Secretary General of the ANC, ex-President Nelson when anti-Mbeki feelings run deep. If he did tell Tshwete to go Mandela’s (unsuccessful) choice as his successor and now a rich public, it is yet another reason to question his judgment. If Tshwete businessman; blundered, Mbeki can regain credibility only by firing one of his 2. , former ANC Premier of Gauteng Province, closest allies. Since insiders think this unlikely, the alleged coup pushed out by Mbeki’s supporters into the mining business, who leaves the President dangerously exposed. calls the allegations ‘complete hogwash’; The crowning irony is that the story of an ‘investigation’ stems 3. , former ANC Premier, Province, from allegations of an ousted ANC Youth League leader who is and another casualty in a clash with Mbeki’s faction, says the story now himself under investigation for defrauding the government. is ‘rubbish’. James Nkambule, now in protective custody as a star witness, Mandela has described all three as ‘honorable men... I hold them faces (with an accomplice) 77 fraud and theft charges. He admits in high esteem’. Mosiuoa ‘Terror’ Lekota (formerly Patrick), the offences, claiming they were methodically milking state who was Free State Premier before becoming Minister of Defence, resources partly to fund the ANC (some money did go to the party). says that the ANC’s National Executive Committee first heard of Further, Nkambule has tried to implicate Zuma, Phosa and other the story when Tshwete gave his TV interview last week. ANC heavyweights in Mpumalanga of fraud and impropriety. Hints have been dropped of involvement by Deputy President Back in 1998, he signed an affidavit alleging a plot against , who recently made an unsolicited statement saying Mbeki; that was when he admitted to taking public funds to help he had no ambition to challenge Mbeki – some understood him to Phosa’s unsuccessful candidature for the deputy presidency against mean the opposite. North-West Province Premier Popo Molefe Mbeki’s choice, Zuma. Phosa’s political career in politics ended a has been questioned about a pamphlet calling for ‘one President, year later and the security services have till now kept quiet about one term’; he has distanced himself from it. the suspect’s statement. Zuma would be an unconvincing rival, even without his financial We hear Nkambule is being investigated by the Scorpions, the ties to Schabir Shaik, who was involved in the government’s investigation unit in the office of the National Director of Public controversial arms deal (AC Vol 42 No 3). Phosa is implicated in Prosecutions. The ordinary police, backed by Tshwete and Police an investigation into corruption. The personable Sexwale is a Commissioner Jackie Selebi, resent the new unit’s status and lightweight, not a potential President. Ramaphosa counts. He relative success; some speculate that Tshwete’s revelation could be moved out of active politics after 1994, when he turned down a devious move to discredit the Scorpions’ witness. The ANC has Mandela’s offer of a cabinet post; Mbeki had already manoeuvred been debating whether to back Mbeki for a second term as state him into declaring that he had no presidential ambitions, a denial president after the 2004 elections. he has not repeated this time. He is popular in the party, with none The coup allegations won’t help. Yet Mandela’s views will of Mbeki’s remoteness or evident insecurity, and was a key figure count for more votes than anyone else’s and this week he has been in the ‘internal’ camp of the liberation movement, those who did unequivocal: let Mbeki serve his two terms. 6 4 May 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 9

1. American trainers. Most publicly, Malu criticised Obasanjo and NIGERIA Defence Minister Yakubu Danjuma’s decision to hire the US Military Professional Resources International to retrain and restructure the military. MPRI’s brief was to look at military reform, civilian control of the military and the de-militarisation of society. Now, MPRI has Exit top brass become a fixture in Nigeria’s Defence Ministry, with its own office Big policy differences are behind the and complement of US staff. This infuriates nationalist Nigerian departure of three military chiefs soldiers such as Malu who regard MPRI’s training programmes as pointless and see its non-negotiated reform agenda as an intrusion into Nigerian sovereignty. When Malu went public with these views, Did they jump or were they pushed? The retirement on 24 April of the Obasanjo had little choice but to sack him. Chief of Army Staff, General ; Chief of Air Staff, Air 2. Military mission. Malu and the other service chiefs believed Marshal Ibrahim Mahmud Alfa; and Chief of Naval Staff, Vice- Obasanjo’s cabinet had come with preconceived notions about what to Admiral Victor Ombu, has rekindled conspiratorial talk about coup do with the military: to cut it down to size and bring it under much plotting and dawn broadcasts. A group of middle-ranking officers tighter civilian control. Senior officers complained they weren’t passing through London and Washington last month confirmed that consulted on this reform programme. They also objected to the use of the military was in restive mood and unhappy with its lot under the military to suppress internal dissent without agreed guidelines. President Olusegun Obasanjo’s government. That doesn’t mean a The military’s already poor image was further damaged after its coup is imminent, though – still less that the long arm of former clashes with protesters in Odi, Bayelsa State, in November 1999, when President had been pushing Malu to challenge soldiers razed the town. Officers also objected to the plan, as Obasanjo, as some of the country’s livelier newspapers suggest. recommended by external consultants, to create a fifth division to Yes, the three service chiefs were sacked by Obasanjo. People are specialise in protecting oil installations. Theye are also unhappy with often appointed to and ‘voluntarily retired’ from military and civilian the government’s defence review in which they claim they have not posts in Nigeria. The main target was Gen. Malu but the retirement of been properly consulted. Air Marshal Alfa and Vice-Admiral Ombu gave some diplomatic 3. Improving professional standards. Malu voiced publicly what cover for his sacking. In March, Malu told the Lagos weekly Tempo many senior officers said privately: that the government had done little that he had another two years of service before his retirement ‘ ...unless to re-equip and retrain the military and improve conditions in the I commit an offence and you know I will never do that. I’ve jailed too barracks, so professional standards and morale were continuing to fall. many people to know the law’. Despite competing demands on state finance, even civilian legislators Both blunt-speaking military men, Malu and Obasanjo clashed over argued that more money should spent on training and accommodation personality and policy. A former commander of the Economic for the troops. Community of West African States Monitoring Group (Ecomog), 4. Civilian control of the military. Malu and other officers deeply Malu had strong but not always consistent views about the role of the resent what they consider overbearing civilian control of military military and its need to stay out of local political interventions. On matters. They agreed that the civilian authority should decide on the several occasions Malu pointedly condemned military rule as bad for military’s size, shape and organisational structure, on weapons the country and its armed forces. On his appointment as Chief of procurement and conditions of service but neither the Presidency nor Army Staff on 31 May 1999, he said that under military rule, it had the Defence Ministry should have operational control of these strategic become ‘difficult to distinguish, at times, between ourselves and issues once policy was agreed. Obasanjo’s decision to appoint businessmen, except that we are wearing the green uniform.’ ministers of state to oversee each service was designed to improve the However, at Justice Chukwudifu Oputa’s panel investigating military-civilian dialogue. Evidently it hasn’t succeeded. human rights abuses, Malu said he was proud to wear a badge with the The new service chiefs – General Alexander Ogomudia (army), late Gen. ’s image on ‘I believed in it, and in loyalty to Vice-Admiral Samuel Afolayan (navy) and Air Vice-Marshal Jonas the then Commander-in-Chief, Abacha.’ He added that Abacha’s Wuyep (airforce) – are unlikely to raise such concerns publicly but chief security officer, Major Hamza Mustafa, accused of numerous that doesn’t mean the argument over military reform is ended. As one human rights abuses and plotting the assassination of anti-military strategist remarked, it is perhaps the ‘end of the beginning’. activists, ‘was given a responsibility far above his rank and he performed well.’ These comments were said to have been the last straw for Obasanjo, a political prisoner under the Abacha regime and Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at nearly the victim of a planned assassination attempt in gaol. 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, . Yet Obasanjo knew Malu’s military and political history well when Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. he appointed him army chief two years ago. Then his street credibility Copyright reserved. Edited by Patrick Smith. Deputy: Gillian Lusk. in the ranks of the army, the fact that he had never held a political Administration: Clare Tauben. posting during military rule and his effectiveness as Ecomog Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa commander worked in his favour. Malu’s good professional standing, Confidential in advance: though, didn’t stop him from quarrelling with the Chief of Defence Institutions: Africa £289 - UK/Europe £310 - USA $780 - ROW £404 Corporates: Africa £354 - UK/Europe £373 - USA $864 - ROW £466 Staff, Admiral Ibrahim Ogohi, and his civilian masters (much to the Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £83 or USA $129 annoyance of the three service chiefs whom Obasanjo had appointed All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept ministers of state to oversee each of the services, to whom the military American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. chiefs were answerable). Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 1FH England. Tel: 44 1865 244083 and Fax: 44 1865 381381 Malu’s views on the accountability of military service chiefs to Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. civilian authority did not accord with Obasanjo’s. Then the two ISSN 0044-6483 differed over policy in at least four areas: 7 4 May 2001 Africa Confidential Vol 42 No 9

Maintien de la Paix. ‘Recamp’ is meant to promote Pointers ANGOLA peacekeeping in Africa by Africans, with equipment, training, technical back-up, transport and funding from outside. Its first exercise, in CÔTE D’IVOIRE Talking to Jonas West Africa in 1996-8, involved soldiers from five Economic Community of West African States’ The government may be getting ready to talk to its members: Ghana, Guinea, Mali, Mauritania arch-enemy, Jonas Savimbi of the União Nacional and Senegal; and four donors sponsored it. The Home and away para a Independência Total de Angola. The new exercise in Gabon in 1998-2000 comprised eight parliamentary commission of the ruling Movimento France, at least, backs President Laurent Gbagbo. participants and donors. Popular de Libertação de Angola includes The head of a team it sent to help draw up aid The third round (probably a political-military members favourable to talks, which ended in late requests (AC Vol 42 No 4) is none other than seminar, a general staff exercise, then a full exercise 1998 after the Lusaka peace accord collapsed. Jean-Michel Severino, who on his return became with troops on the ground) will be prepared in Dar The MPLA must get ready for the elections due at head of the Agence Française de Développement es Salaam next week by officers and diplomats the end of 2002. on 18 April. He pushed for devaluation of the from 36 participant and donor countries. The Savimbi says, credibly, that they would be CFA franc in 1994, is an ex-Vice-President of the regional partner is the Southern African impossible without his consent and he has offered World Bank and wants to change France’s Development Community. Tanzania got non- to join a national reconciliation forum and ‘accept traditional ways in Africa. SADC Kenya and Madagascar included. But the errors pointed out to us’. On 25 April Interior Otherwise, Gbagbo’s life is less rosy. The Uganda and Rwanda, facing Angola and Minister Fernando da Piedade Dias dos Santos widespread success of Alassane Dramane Zimbabwe in Congo, will have to wait, probably ‘Nando’ (tipped as a future premier) welcomed Ouattara’s Rassemblement des Républicains at till phase four, to be held with the Inter- Savimbi’s stance, suggesting that new talks could the local elections in February weakened him and Governmental Authority on Development. start if UNITA disarmed. That is, of course, a big his Front Populaire Ivoirien, which postponed its The Dar meeting is a big step in France’s bid to hurdle to jump. congress, due last month. This may reduce Abou transform its age-old military presence in Africa General Armando da Cruz Neto replaced Drahmane Sangare’s chances of succeeding from post-colonial bilateralism to a hub of Gen. João de Matos as Chief of Staff in January Gbagbo as chief of the FPI (which Gbagbo multilateral peacekeeping and ‘humanitarian but the army is no closer to catching Savimbi. apparently opposed). intervention’. This follows the barrage of criticism Popular moderates, such as MPLA ex-Secretary Gbagbo’s predecessor as head of state, General triggered by its Opération Turquoise in post- General Lopo do Nascimento and ex-Premier Robert Gueï, seems bound to stand trial, though genocide Rwanda, seen as protection for those Marcolino Moco, favour new talks, though they he is still protected by some of Boka Yapi’s who had committed genocide. are queasy about dealing with Savimbi. They militia and some Liberian fighters. He is deeply Paris wants to lock other Western powers into reckon the government needs a stronger ‘hearts involved with the cross-border Yacouba people future interventions. For a while, Washington and and minds’ campaign to improve the terrible and during the polls mediated a factional conflict Paris squabbled to take the lead, until London got schools, clinics and water supplies, on top of the at Zouhan Houenien. He’s also in touch with the them to work together (AC Vol 42 No 7). Paris US$20 million Peace and Reconciliation Fund, former Abidjan representative of the União still sees Africa as a prime theatre for a pet project, the Fundo para Paz e Reconciliação, launched in Nacional para a Independência Total de Angola, the European Rapid Reaction Force: this has ruffled February to encourage former UNITA combatants John Marques Kakumba – Ivorian by marriage United States’ feathers. French-led Recamp and their families to seek amnesty. Quietly, the and once a key UNITA link to France and gathered momentum while Zimbabwe fell out government is backing a conference on 2-4 May Francophone Africa. Gbagbo has pleased many with its British friends and the US affair with on ‘Law, Democracy, Peace and Development,’ by reversing his predecessors’ support for UNITA; Ethiopia and Eritrea was spoilt when brothers organised by the Agostinho Neto University. he has withdrawn diplomatic passports from fought each other. Speakers include former United Nations Special UNITA people, including members of Jonas The next exercise will involve Tanzania, the Representative to Angola Margaret Anstee (from Savimbi’s family. In turn, Luanda has appointed United Nations and the Organisation of African Britain); former United States Ambassador to a new Ambassador, Bernardo Ndombele, a Unity. The 20 donors in Dar will include most Luanda Paul Hare; an eminent US academic Francophile Mukongo who spent 20 years as European Union states; veteran peacekeepers specialising in Angola, Gerald Bender; and two envoy to Gabon trying to stem UNITA’s Argentina, Canada and India; Australia, Brazilian academics, Fernando Mourão and Francophone advance. Japan and the USA plus, remarkably, China Paulo Magalhães. Some fear that Gueï’s supporters might take and Russia. Much legwork has been done by US President George W. Bush wrote to up arms, with or without help from President Guy Azaïs, Paris’s Special Ambassador for President José Eduardo dos Santos last week, Charles Taylor. The Liberian President boasts of Recamp. Equipment will come from French urging a ‘peaceful solution’ to the war while still good relations with Gbagbo. This, however, may stocks in Djibouti and UK stocks in Kenya. backing UN sanctions on Savimbi. The good not last. Gbagbo lent Taylor his presidential jet in France hopes for closer relations with news in Luanda is that exports to China rose by April to fly back from a regional summit in Abuja, Tanzania, with its independent-minded foreign over 400 per cent in 1999-2000, reaching $1.8 Nigeria. Taylor kept the plane for days, failing to policy and investment opportunities. For billion, nearly 30 per cent of total exports. That is notify Abidjan that he was off on a tour that Britain, the Dar meeting may help identify a new almost all oil; tighter environmental rules in China included Gambia and Chad. Gbagbo had to go SADC location for its small regional military have raised demand for low-sulphur crudes, which abroad by car. training team, which pulled bitterly out of Harare offers Angola a useful counter when bargaining Gbagbo’s relations with Ouattara are also tense. on 31 March. with American big oil. Togo’s President Gnassingbé Eyadéma fixed up Present in Dar next week are Angola, a meeting between them in March in Lomé. ADO FRANCE/AFRICA Botswana, Congo-K, Kenya, , thinks he was cheated of the presidency; Gbagbo Madagascar, Malawi, Mauritius, Mozambique, blames the RDR for last year’s murderous clashes. Namibia, South Africa, Tanzania, and After the meeting, ADO told journalists he wanted Recamping out Zimbabwe. Also in Dar, as donors, will be his full civil rights back and his RDR militants representatives from: Argentina, Australia, released from gaol. This enraged Gbagbo who Rwanda and Uganda must pay for their military Belgium, Britain, Canada, China, Denmark, saw it, we hear, as a betrayal of their in camera involvement in Congo-Kinshasa by exclusion Finland, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, agreement: that Ouattara would recognise from the French-led peacekeeping programme, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Russia, Gbagbo’s presidential election victory. the Renforcement des Capacités Africaines de Spain, Sweden and USA. 8