SESAR faces nontechnical hurdles A conversation with Richard Brookes NextGen A SLOW TRANSFORMATION 2010 APUBLICATIONOFTHEAMERICANINSTITUTEOFAERONAUTICSANDASTRONAUTICS May

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May 2010

DEPARTMENTS EDITORIAL 3 As the tanker turns.

INTERNATIONAL BEAT 4 Euro Hawk sparks UAS integration plans. Page 20

WASHINGTON WATCH 8 Feeling the pinch and fighting back.

Page 16 CONVERSATIONS 12 With Andrew Brookes.

THE VIEW FROM HERE 16 Space shuttle: An astronaut looks at its legacy.

AIRCRAFT UPDATE 20 Trainer aircraft: Long-term hopes for growth.

INDUSTRY INSIGHTS 22 Israeli UAVs find a competitive edge. Page 22 ENGINEERING NOTEBOOK 26 Measuring change in Earth’s wobble.

OUT OF THE PAST 44 Page 38 CAREER OPPORTUNITIES 46

FEATURES NEXTGEN:A SLOW TRANSFORMATION 30 Implementing the Next-Generation Air Transportation System will depend on cooperation by all stakeholders—and, as always, on funding. by J.R.Wilson

SESAR FACES NONTECHNICAL HURDLES 38 ToC: The main challenges facing the Single European Sky ATM Research program are not technological but institutional and policy-related. by Philip Butterworth-Hayes

BULLETIN AIAA Meeting Schedule B2 AIAA Courses and Training Program B4 AIAA News B5 Meeting Program B13

Page 30 COVER New technologies and programs for the next generation of air transportation systems both in the U.S.and Europe are making progress,to greater and lesser degrees.To find out how they are faring,turn to pages 30-43.

Aerospace America (ISSN 0740-722X) is published monthly by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc. at 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, Reston, Va. 20191-4344 [703/264-7577]. Subscription rate is 50% of dues for AIAA members (and is not deductible therefrom). Nonmember subscription price: U.S. and Canada, $163, foreign, $200. Single copies $20 each. Postmaster: Send address changes and subscription orders to address above, attention AIAA Customer Service, 703/264-7500. Periodical postage paid at Herndon, VA, and at additional mailing offices. Copyright © 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc., all rights reserved. The name Aerospace America is registered by the AIAA in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. 40,000 copies of this issue printed. This is Volume 48, No. 5. may edit.qxd:AA Template 4/9/10 2:12 PM Page 1

®

is a publication of the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

Elaine J. Camhi Editor-in-Chief Patricia Jefferson Associate Editor As the tanker turns Greg Wilson Production Editor Jerry Grey, Editor-at-Large Christine Williams, Editor AIAA Bulletin In late 2001, the USAF proposes leasing 100 air-refueling tankers from Boe- ing to replace its aging fleet of KC-135 Stratotankers, which had begun ser- Correspondents vice in 1957. The replacements are to be based on the Boeing 767 and are to Robert F. Dorr, Washington Philip Butterworth-Hayes, Europe come in at a cost of about $20 billion or so on a sole-source contract. Michael Westlake, Hong Kong This proposal, however, is met with a hailstorm of criticism, led by Sen. John McCain, who believes the company is being given a sweetheart deal, and Contributing Writers that there are alternative plans that should be examined before any contracts Richard Aboulafia, James W. Canan, Marco Cáceres, Edward Flinn, Tom are let. This eventually leads to investigations, a CFO dismissal, a CEO forced Jones, Théo Pirard, David Rockwell, into retirement and, by November 2003, a jail term. Frank Sietzen, J.R. Wilson By early 2004, the leasing deal is effectively scrapped. After the dust settles, the Air Force introduces the KC-X replacement Fitzgerald Art & Design Art Direction and Design program, and on January 30, 2007, the Dept. of Defense posts a request for proposals. Craig Byl, Manufacturing and Distribution Boeing again proposes a 767 derivative, and a joint venture between Mark Lewis, President Northrop Grumman and EADS offers the Multi-Role Tanker Transport, based Robert S. Dickman, Publisher on the Airbus A330-200 and called the KC-45. Both competitors file before STEERING COMMITTEE the deadline; both promise that manufacture of the aircraft would take place in Michael B. Bragg, University of Illinois; the U.S. Philip Hattis, Draper Laboratory; Mark S. In February 2008, the Pentagon announces that the contract, now worth Maurice, AFOSR; Laura McGill, Raytheon; $35 billion to $40 billion, will be awarded to the Northrop Grumman/EADS Merri Sanchez, National Aeronautics and joint venture. Space Administration; Mary Snitch, Lock- But it doesn’t end there. heed Martin; David W. Thompson, Orbital Boeing immediately files a protest, which is upheld by the Government EDITORIAL BOARD Accountability Office. In July 2008, Secretary of Defense Robert Gates calls Ned Allen, Lockheed Martin Aeronautics; for an “expedited recompetition” and issues a new RFP. Boeing then asks for Jean-Michel Contant, EADS; Eugene more time, which it eventually receives, as the RFP is cancelled, leaving the Covert, Massachusetts Institute of Technol- issue to be handled by the next administration. ogy; L.S. “Skip” Fletcher, Texas A&M Uni- Those Stratotankers are now seven years older. versity; Michael Francis, United Technologies; Among the ideas floated in Congress is a split award, offering contracts to Christian Mari, Teuchos; Cam Martin, both companies, making some states, and their representatives—and the main- NASA Dryden; Don Richardson, Donrich Research; Douglas Yazell, Honeywell tenance and overhaul folks—happy. Gates turns this suggestion down. In September 2009, the Pentagon formally releases a new RFP. Boeing ADVERTISING offers two proposals, one again based on its 767 and another based on the National Display and Classified: 777. Northrop Grumman threatens to withdraw, believing the new RFP offers Robert Silverstein, 240.498.9674 advantages to Boeing and its smaller offering, and follows through on that [email protected] threat in March 2010. EADS announces that it will not compete on its own. West Coast Display: Greg Cruse, However, no one, except Boeing, is happy about awarding an uncom- 949.361.1870 / [email protected] peted contract. EADS then decides that it may look for a new partner, or per- Send materials to Craig Byl, AIAA, 1801 haps compete on its own. But the company requests additional time to decide, Alexander Bell Drive, Suite 500, Reston, VA and to prepare a new response to the RFP. 20191-4344. Changes of address should be Rumors pop up and are quickly debunked. The Russians are going to bid. sent to Customer Service at the same address, No they’re not. EADS is going to protest. No it’s not. by e-mail at [email protected], or by fax at In the end, the decision may come down to a choice between two fine air- 703/264-7606. craft, either of which could fill the Air Force’s needs. But political pressures, Send Letters to the Editor to Elaine Camhi at the same address or [email protected] both domestic and international, may make a difficult call even harder, over- shadowing an evaluation of the merits of the proposals. May 2010, Vol. 48, No. 5 And the Stratotankers keep getting older. Tune in tomorrow. Elaine Camhi Editor-in-Chief BEATlayout510.qxd:AA Template 4/14/10 2:03 PM Page 2

EuroHawksparksUAS integrationplans

BY THE END OF 2010 THE GERMAN tronic intelligence radar and communica- defense ministry is due to take tions intelligence emitters is under devel- delivery of its first Euro Hawk opment by EADS Defence & Security, as unmanned air system. In Janu- are the ground stations that will receive ary 2007 the ministry awarded a and analyze the data from Euro Hawk. $559-million contract to Euro Hawk GmbH, a 50-50 joint ven- 2012 target for regulations ture between Northrop Grum- The various European regulatory bodies Eurohawk man and EADS, for the develop- are working toward development of cer- ment, test and support of the tification regulations for the key tech- Euro Hawk unmanned SIGINT (signals that will allow UAS platforms to share nologies by 2012 to integrate all shapes intelligence) surveillance and reconnais- airspace safely with civil aircraft: vehicle and sizes of UAS platforms within Eu- sance system. It will replace Germany’s airworthiness, remote command and rope’s airspace, with their implementa- aging fleet of Breguet Atlantic aircraft, in control systems, and ATM—especially tion from 2015. service since 1972. sense-and-avoid technologies. EUROCAE, the European Organiza- After the first demonstrator vehicle, But Euro Hawk is in many ways an tion for Civil Aviation Equipment, has four further Euro Hawk platforms, with atypical UAS. It operates above 50,000 been undertaking much of the work an operational capability, are scheduled ft—higher than the main traffic lanes— within Europe to develop the necessary for delivery between 2015 and 2016. and is large enough to accommodate standards for operating UAS vehicles in For Europe’s aviation safety regula- many of the sense-and-avoid systems civil airspace and proposing regulations tors and air traffic management (ATM) found on airliners. The platform is U.S. to the European Aviation Safety Agency, officials, the arrival of Euro Hawk within based, a derivative of the Northrop which will be ultimately responsible for Europe is a timely reminder that there is Grumman Block 20 Global Hawk, but a great deal of work still to be done to the on-board systems are European. The develop regulations on the three areas SIGINT mission system that detects elec- The MIDCAS consortium The MIDCAS consortium comprises 13 aero- space industries from five countries, with EUROCAE Working Group 73: Developing UAS draft standards and requirements Sweden’s Saab leading the project. Flight EUROCAE’s Working Group 73 has been formed to develop a requirements framework that will enable tests will be carried out at the CEV flight test- UAS platforms to operate within the current system without segregation from other airspace users. ing center in Istres, France. Thales and Sagem It held its first meeting in the Eurocontrol Brussels headquarters in April 2006. It works through four will research the “sense” technologies. subgroups: UAS operations—sense and avoid; airworthiness and continued airworthiness; command Thales will coordinate work on cooperative and control, communications and spectrum security; and light UAS (under 150 kg) and operations with sensors—such as radar, transponders and visual management and separation. TCAS—with Sagem coordinating work on noncooperative sensors (infrared imagers, EUROCAE’s work program has six main elements: video, radar). Full consortium members are: • Drawing up an “operational concept” to highlight airworthiness certification and operational Saab approval items that need to be addressed—completed January 2007. Alenia Aeronautica S.p.A. • Drawing up a plan of programs and timescales—ongoing. Diehl BGT Defence GmbH & Co. KG • Developing a concept for UAS airworthiness certification and operational approval in the context of Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und nonsegregated airspace. The object is to develop a report of recommendations—and a requirements Raumfahrt e. V. in der Helmholtz- framework for civil UAS—that could be adopted as a basis for regulatory policy by national Gemeinschaft administrations. The scope covers general regulatory issues, security, radio spectrum requirements, EADS Deutschland GmbH operational approval, airworthiness certification and maintenance. A specific volume focuses on ESG Elektroniksystem- und Logistik-GmbH UAS, typically less than 150 kg mass, limited to visual line-of-sight operations—final version of the Galileo Avionica S.p.A. document to appear in 2010. INDRASISTEMASS.A. • Developing a document to define the requirements for command, control and communication Italian Aerospace Research Center systems including autonomous operation—document to appear in the second quarter of 2010. CIRA S.c.p.A. • Developing a document to define the requirements for UAS associated with separation assurance Sagem (Safran Group) and collision avoidance—document to appear in the fourth quarter of 2012. Selex Communications S.p.A. • Developing a document to identify those aspects of UAS normal and abnormal operations that SELEX Sistemi Integrati S.p.A. would require special ATM consideration—ongoing. THALES Systèmes Aéroportés S.A.

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certifying and regulating these opera- UAVs in nonsegre- tions. This year, two important docu- gated airspace.” ments are due to be published outlining MIDCAS team draft regulations on airworthiness and members met for the command, control and communications. first time on February Working group 73 of EUROCAE, an 16 at Eurocontrol organization of European companies, is headquarters in Brus- drawing up the regulatory proposals in A forum on aviation cooperation was held in October in Montreal. sels, with around 70 consultation with the International Civil representatives from Aviation Organization, the U.S. Federal study on sense-and-avoid technologies various European aviation authorities, air Aviation Administration, Eurocontrol for long-endurance unmanned air vehi- traffic control (ATC) organizations, avia- and RTCA, among many others. Work cles in 2007 (http://www.edaeuropa.eu/ tion industries and research organiza- on accelerating the regulatory and oper- genericitem.aspx?area=31&id=305), tions. The work on developing standards ational frameworks to allow UAS plat- covering the mapping of applicable reg- and systems for sense-and-avoid equip- forms to fly within European airspace ulations, definition of requirements and ment—with standardization work taking has taken place in the past 12 months. definition of potential technical solutions. place under EUROCAE—will culminate Eurocontrol published the first ATM It also covered testing of the proposed in flight trials with the new equipment on specifications in December 2007 to set technical solutions through sim-ulations board an Italian Alenia Sky-Y UAS by out how UAVs should fly in European and assessment of how implementing the end of 2012. airspace. The organization’s UAV Oper- the solutions will affect the future use of A need for improved ATC datalinks ational Air Traffic Task Force concluded long-endurance UAVs, ATM procedures was also highlighted by the European that if UAS platforms are to operate in and safety considerations. Commission (EC)-funded Innovative Op- nonsegregated airspace—that is, in the erational UAV Integration (INOUI), a 24- same airspace occupied by airliners and Integration approaches month, €4.3-million research study com- general aviation aircraft operators—UAS In May 2007 EDA was given the job of pleted in October 2009 and led by platforms would have to meet the same addressing this challenge on the basis of German air navigation service provider requirements as manned aircraft to inter- a stepped approach toward integration. DFS Deutschflugsicherung, which inves- act with air traffic controllers and carry According to Carlo Magrassi, EDA dep- tigated how current data-link technolo- out sense-and-avoid maneuvers to main- uty chief executive (strategy), speaking in gies could be developed to fulfill the ATC tain separation. This means developing Montreal at a forum on civil/military co- role, perhaps through mandating satellite new sense-and-avoid technologies and operation in October 2009, “A major communications, given the requirement new procedures for certifying airworth- strategic technology development….is for UAV platforms to operate beyond iness, security operations and operator the so-called MIDCAS project [Midair line of sight. The report also highlighted training. Collision Avoidance System]. The objec- the potential for low-cost general aviation The European Defence Agency (EDA) tive of this €50-million technology dem- collision avoidance technologies, such as has set a target date of 2015 for UAS onstrator is to support the development those developed by Flarm Technology platforms to become integrated within of the critical sense-and-avoid technol- (http://www.flarm.com). the current civil airspace structure on a ogy and hereby, complementary with Another emerging technology that “file and fly” basis. The EDA produced its other activities, enable the operation of could provide the basis for sense-and- avoid systems on board smaller UAVs is automatic dependent surveillance broad- Air4All and ASTRAEA cast (ADS-B) services that would require There have been two other significant European SAAB AB (Sweden), Sagem Defense Systems a simple transponder with a backup programs to develop strategies to integrate UAS (France) and Thales Aerospace (France, U.K.). data-link transmission system. Such a platforms into civil airspace. Meanwhile the U.K. has been developing technology has been investigated re- The EDA commissioned the Air4All consort- its own UAS integration strategy in the form of cently under the NASA Aeronautics Re- ium to develop a detailed action plan to demon- the ASTRAEA program, a £32-million aerospace strate how UAVs are to be able to fly in civil air- program involving a consortium of companies search Mission Directorate Integration of space by 2015. The plan was released in 2008 including BAE Systems, EADS, Cobham, QinetiQ, Advanced Concepts and Vehicles into and included a roadmap for an implementation Rolls-Royce and Thales, working with the Next Generation Air Transportation plan with technological, regulatory and cost autonomous systems specialist Agent Oriented System (NextGen) study. estimates. Participants included Alenia Aeronau- Software. The ASTRAEA program focused on In planning for integration of UAS tica (Italy), BAE Systems (U.K., Sweden), Dassault assessing the viability of enabling autonomous platforms into European airspace, Euro- Aviation (France), Diehl BGT Defence (Germany), aircraft to operate within U.K. airspace and control is implementing a two-phase EADS CASA (Spain), EADS Defense & Security in October 2008 carried out a number of strategy: a near-term objective of enabl- Germany, Selex Galileo (Italy), QinetiQ (U.K.), simulated flights with an autonomous UAS, ing UAS integration into the ATM sys- Rheinmetall Defense Electronics (Germany), at the ParcAberporth range in the U.K. tem based on current technologies and

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procedures and a long-term strategy of and ATC. They will also research the making on UAS group of national Euro- enabling UAVs to fly alongside manned added value of satellite communications pean civil aviation authorities. Led by the aircraft within the Single European Sky for high-data-rate payload links; the vi- Netherlands, JARUS is working on de- concept of operations, due to be fully im- ability of such a solution for future ser- veloping a single set of airworthiness and plemented from 2020. vices based on UAS supported by space operational airspace requirements for INOUI also highlighted a require- systems; the investments that will be nec- consideration by the relevant regulatory ment for “dynamic replanning”—when a essary in the future; the next steps authorities. But with these small systems UAS flight plan would need to be altered needed in technical and regulatory terms about to enter the market in growing because of a potential conflict. It sug- for establishing such a service; and the numbers, there is increasing awareness gested that technologies developed road map for civilian, security and mili- within Europe of the need to focus regu- within the EC-funded SOFIA (Safe Auto- tary services. latory attention at this level of UAS. matic Flight Back and Landing of Air- craft) project (http://www.sofia.isdefe. Tackling smaller UAVs vvv es), which investigated the technologies But many in the industry believe the key For Europe, the key focus now is to pull and procedures to return an aircraft au- challenge will be to introduce new sense- together all the work undertaken by na- tomatically to a safe landing following a and-avoid technologies, procedures and tional and international agencies and de- hostile action, could be reconfigured for regulations for UAVs that are not large liver a cohesive regulatory structure that such a role. enough to accommodate current traffic meets the short-term aerospace safety “Two further important UAS work collision avoidance systems. requirements of national states while be- strands under the EDA umbrella are “Programs such as MIDCAS are ing able to harness the longer-term tech- worth mentioning, both initiated from aimed predominantly at the larger UAS nological promises of data-fusion, minia- the Air4All Roadmap development,” ac- vehicles entering the market,” said Peter turization and increasing autonomy. cording to Magrassi. “The first [is] the so- van Blyenburgh, president of UAS trade As ever in Europe, the issues of de- called SIGAT activity, with the aim to association UVS International, “but veloping joint approaches across na- support the preparation of the World there is very little work to develop ap- tional and international institutions are Radio Conference in 2012 and subse- propriate technologies for the smaller proving as much of a challenge as devel- quently in 2015. EDA participating systems, those under 150 kg.” oping the appropriate technologies. member states, in August 2008, tasked Much of the work to develop regula- Philip Butterworth-Hayes the Air4All Frequency Group to work to- tions of these smaller systems has been Brighton,U.K. ward the identification of appropriate led by the Joint Authorities for Rule- [email protected] spectrum requirements to consolidate a common European position regarding regulatory and operational UAS require- ments for the upcoming World Radio Conference. “Another activity being coordinated In Environmental regulations fly high about 2% of this CO2, reducing CO2 with the European Space Agency is the and wide (March, page 4), Mr. Butter- contributions by aircraft by 50% would common approach regarding command worth-Hayes states that the Carbon Re- reduce global CO2 emissions by about and control of UAS and satellite services, duction Commitment (CRC), a regula- 0.019 ppm per year. From 2050 to as well as the air traffic control data link.” tory scheme put in place by the U.K., 2100, this would mean a reduction of will attempt to reduce emissions by 60% only 0.95 ppm in atmospheric CO2 con- Satellite study contracts over 2008 levels by 2050. The emission centrations, or 0.2% of the 2008 con- In February 2010 EDA and ESA signed reductions demanded for aircraft by the centration of 385 ppm. Note that the contracts, worth €400,000 each, with CRC is unclear, but the International Air percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere is two consortia to progress the work on Transport Association is stated as pro- only 0.038%. command and control alongside ATC posing 50% reductions for aircraft by Given this minuscule difference in data-link services. EDA has contracted 2050. the percentage of CO2 in the atmo- EADS Astrium Services/EADS Defence Missing from the article are impor- sphere caused by this reduction, how & Security—Military Air Systems (France) tant numbers. Given that the rate of in- much cooler will it be in 2100 if the re- to investigate the command and control crease in CO2 levels, as reported from duction is made than if it isn’t? Also, segment. ESA signed a second contract the Mauna Loa, Hawaii, observatory and how much revenue will be lost by the air- with INDRA Espacio of Spain to investi- other sources was about 1.9 ppm per lines, the aircraft production industry gate the ATC link segment. year, and given that aircraft contribute (AIAA’s membership), and tourism in- The studies will examine how UAS platforms can be integrated into nonseg- regated airspace using satellite commu- All letters addressed to the editor are considered to be submitted for possible publication, unless it is expressly stated otherwise. All letters are subject to editing for length and to author response. nications and satellite navigation for Letters should be sent to: Correspondence, Aerospace America, 1801 Alexander Bell Drive, command and control, sense and avoid, Suite 500, Reston, VA 20191-4344, or by e-mail to: [email protected].

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dustry if the cuts are made (through in- sion. Augustine gave himself absolutely the technical expertise will be disbanded creased taxes and thereby ticket costs)? no wiggle room, such as suggesting that and lost. I sincerely doubt that manned Joe Sheeley Constellation could continue with the exploration of Mars can be handled by Tullahoma,Tenn. current funding if one assumed that the commercial spaceflight development. Reply by author: The huge current cost space station’s life would be extended. May I suggest that this issue be the of research into new fuels, more efficient That has now been done, but the Con- subject of much debate within AIAA and engines and air traffic management pro- stellation program is now, unless resur- its sister organizations, one in which we cedures will make it possible for the aero- rected, dead. consider the various options we might space industry to reach IATA’s target of a And, if Tom Jones thought that re- take to get us back to manned space- net reduction in carbon emissions of turning to the Moon was a public yawn, flight and the exploration of Mars? I be- 50% in 2050 compared to 2005, de- manned visitations to NEOs would be a lieve that we are now like Moses wan- spite trebling the number of aircraft in total sleepwalk. Exactly how do you build dering in the wilderness, and that it will operation over the same period. The excitement? The only goal that would at- be years of soul searching until we re- question is, is this investment worth it? tract public support is a manned Mars cover the will to move on—somewhat The industry can only respond with a mission and, right now, a hell of a lot of akin to the period following the end of technological solution to what is a politi- PR would be needed even for that. the manned Moon expeditions. I am dis- cal question. The results may seem, in If in the NASA budget there will now mayed by the matter-of-factness in both context, minuscule. But with regulators be money for advanced propulsion sys- the editorial, Space, safety—and risk in Europe and elsewhere contemplating tem development, success in this area (March, page 3), and in Tom’s article; we caps on air traffic growth on the basis of could resurrect the human spaceflight have been gored and are simply too ac- the industry’s carbon footprint, if you program. In the interim, I am afraid that quiescent to speak out. Richard Eiger can demonstrate that technology will de- couple growth and environmental im- pact there will be no justifiable reason to cap growth in the first place. Events Calendar MAY 4-6 vvv ASTRO 2010—15th CASI Astronautics Conference, Toronto, Ontario, I have just read Why asteroids beckon Canada. (March page 12), and, sad to say, found Contact: G. Languedoc, 613/591-8787; www.casi.ca Tom Jones’ arguments wanting. He has attempted to intermingle manned explo- MAY 11-12 ration of NEOs with the need to prepare Inside Aerospace—An International Forum for Aviation and Space Leaders, to deflect one of these should it endan- Arlington, Va. ger Earth, two very different objectives. Contact: 703/264-7500 The former is elective, the latter, not. MAY 13-15 But overriding this is the question: Fifth Argentine Congress on Space Technology, Mar del Plata, Argentina. whither human spaceflight. We are at a Contact: Pablo de Leon, 701/777-2369; [email protected] very uncomfortable crossroads. The “vi- sion” program was begun by President MAY 31-JUNE 2 Bush, who then chose to tacitly continue Seventeenth St. Petersburg International Conference on Integrated it without further verbal support, only to Navigation Systems, St. Petersburg, Russia. have it terminated by President Obama. Contact: Prof. V. Peshekhonov, www.elektropribor.spb.ru NASA geared itself around the Constel- JUNE 1-4 lation program, spending billions of dol- Fourth International Conference on Research in Air Transportation, lars on it, only to have it dumped in the Budapest, Hungary. waste can. Contact: Andres Zellweger, [email protected] As I have felt before, I thought re- JUNE 7-9 turning to the Moon was a lousy goal, a Sixteenth AIAA/CEAS Aeroacoustics Conference, Stockholm, Sweden. “been there, done that” effort that would Contact: Hans Bodén, [email protected] not attract public support. NASA ap- pears to have counted on the continua- JUNE 8-10 tion of the program without doing much Third International Symposium on System and Control in Aeronautics to sell the public on it. The coup de and Astronautics, Harbin, People’s Republic of China. grace to the program was the poker play Contact: Zhenshen Qu, [email protected] by the Augustine Commission, essen- JUNE 14-18 tially daring the president to put up or ASME TurboExpo 2010, Glasgow, Scotland, U.K. kill it. He chose the latter, probably quite Contact: www.turboexpo.org startling the members of the commis-

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 7 Feelingthepinchandfightingback

“THEPRESIDENTMADEAMISTAKE,” SAID proposal, NASA’s Bolden apologized for Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.) at a public space the abruptness with which the policy forum in Cocoa, Fla., on March 19. shift was announced. Nelson, Congress’s most visible advo- Ironically, at a time when federal cate for human spaceflight, was referring deficits and the national debt are issues, a to President Barack Obama’s decision to decision to drop Constellation will not re- delete the Constellation human space- sult in NASA returning any funds to the flight program from the administration’s treasury. The FY11 budget plan is actu- FY11 NASA budget request. Nelson ally slightly larger than FY10 spending, spoke of the “perception” that Obama with funds going to private rocket and “killed the space program,” but he also Rep. Ron Paul space companies, atmospheric physics called Obama “a vigorous supporter of research and climate science, as well as the manned space program.” reverse the proposal. However, the ad- robotic exploration of the solar system. In objecting to Constellation’s ab- ministration is listening, and there are When we went to press, the presi- sence from the funding proposal, Nelson preliminary signs that the White House dent had called for a “space summit” on has plenty of company on Capitol Hill and NASA are taking another look. April 15, at which, among others, offi- and in industry. Twenty-seven members The Constellation project, one goal cials in Florida—heavily impacted by the of Congress (two-thirds of them from of which is to return astronauts to the coming retirement of the shuttle and the Alabama and Texas) initially wrote to Moon by 2020, grew out of the far- cancellation of its replacement, Constel- NASA Administrator Charles Bolden sighted 2004 “vision” of a replacement lation—were scheduled to attend. Florida saying, “The termination of the Constel- for the space shuttle to deliver astro- Today reported that rally organizers were lation programs is a proposal by the nauts to LEO and eventually take them seeking to assemble 5,000 spaceflight president, but it is Congress that will ac- farther into space. But the public seems supporters to tell the president, as Bre- cept or reject that proposal. In the to have little interest. While Constella- vard County Commissioner Robin Fisher meantime, FY10 funds for the Constel- tion remains in the current (FY10) put it, “This current [NASA] budget, the lation programs are to be spent as if the budget, the idea of restoring it to FY11 way it is structured, is not acceptable to program will continue.” Among signato- funding appears to enjoy limited support this community.” ries to the letter is Rep. Ron Paul (R- outside Alabama, Florida, Maryland and In Florida and elsewhere around the Texas), who is usually a voice for smaller Texas, states where key NASA facilities country, supporters of a robust space government and a foe of federal spend- are situated. program believe that even if the White ing. Since that initial letter was written, If left unchanged, the administra- House does not change policy, Congress other lawmakers have joined in. tion’s new policy will be especially diffi- will force a change. Many in Washington With the nation’s capital and espe- cult at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center, view the agency and its administrator, cially Congress focused on the economy, which will have no manned space activ- Bolden, as performing a difficult balanc- health care and immigration, it is unclear ity to support, and at Alabama’s George ing act in order to satisfy both Capitol how much of their own personal clout C. Marshall Space Flight Center, which Hill and the White House as well as the lawmakers are willing to expend to try to has developed rockets from the Apollo- conflicting requirements of FY10 and era Saturn to the present-day Ares. proposed FY11 legislation. Under the administration’s plan, As the state’s Orlando Sentinel put it, NASA will scuttle the shuttle successor “NASA is...caught in a tug of war” be- Orion and the lunar lander Altair. The tween President Obama’s budget, which agency will also abandon both Ares I, the ends the program, and congressional launch vehicle for Orion, and Ares V, the legislation preventing the program from heavy-lift launch vehicle designed to ending without its approval. send Orion and Altair to the Moon. The Some NASA engineers are continu- revelation that the administration is ing to develop components of the pro- abandoning government-funded human gram, while other NASA staffers are space exploration was handled poorly. In canceling solicitations for components a telecast to NASA field centers soon af- for which contracts have not yet been Sen. Bill Nelson ter the February 1 release of the budget written. NASA is still working on Ares I,

8 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 F-18 F-16 F-15

Delays in the JSF program have the services looking at upgrades for the older fighters. arguing that it may have applications for “too optimistic.” Armed Services Chair- suffer unless a decision is made to pur- undefined future programs. man Rep. Ike Skelton (D-Mo.) signed the chase new aircraft. At press time, the agency was await- letter along with ranking Republican ing the April 18 return of the space shut- Rep. Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) and Reps. FAA funding tle Discovery on STS-131, with Navy Gene Taylor (D-Miss.) and Todd Akin (R- It may take months for the Senate and Capt. Alan Poindexter leading seven as- Mo.). Analysts have long spoken of a House of Representatives to reconcile tronauts to the ISS. The 13-day flight de- Navy-Marine fighter shortfall that could differing versions of a $34.5-billion two- livered supplies, a new crew sleeping leave the sea services with 300 fewer year authorization bill for the FAA fol- quarters and science racks that will be fighters than their force structure calls lowing the Senate’s passage of its ver- transferred to the station’s laboratories. for. Boeing assembles the Super Hornet sion on March 22. In a situation not A Russian TMA-18 Soyuz mission to the in Missouri and uses components built by atypical in Washington, the FAA’s statu- ISS also took place in the first week in Northrop Grumman in California. tory authorization expired on September April. The final flight in the shuttle pro- Gates called a Boeing proposal to 30, 2007, and the aviation agency has gram, STS-133, is scheduled for a Sep- supply an additional 124 Super Hornets continued to function since then under a tember 16 launch, but an analysis by the an “interesting offer.” Previously, the series of temporary extensions passed by agency office of the inspector general in- Pentagon boss was opposed to any pur- Congress. dicates that delays may extend shuttle chase of fighters that would be perceived A key provision in both versions of operations. as interfering with the JSF program. The the new bill would provide funding for Pentagon is also considering upgrades to the FAA’s NextGen (next generation) Fighter shortfall 150 older F/A-18C/D Hornets—used by program to update the nation’s air traf- With the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike both the Navy and the Marine Corps— fic system. A new navigation system for Fighter (JSF) confronting significant cost and reducing the number of fighters in the nation’s airways has been stalled for overruns and schedule delays, some in expeditionary squadrons. So far, no years, but the measure would require Congress and industry are arguing for an funds have been appropriated for a life “key elements” to be in use by 2014 at increased buy of F/A-18E/F Super Hor- extension of the Hornets, estimated at the busiest airports. nets, the Navy’s current, carrier-based $3.5 billion. The bill funds NextGen in part by an strike fighters. Production of 493 Super The fighter shortfall is not limited to increase in general aviation jet fuel Hornets was scheduled to end next year, the Navy and Marine Corps. In what out- taxes—21.9 cents to 36 cents a gallon— when it was expected that the F-35C siders call a pending “fighter gap”—offi- but does not impose new user fees. Sup- would begin replacing them on carrier cials say they do not use the term—the porters of the general aviation commu- decks. Now, four senior members of the Air National Guard and Air Force Re- nity say they have done their part and House Armed Services Committee have serve F-16 Fighting Falcons that provide warned Defense Secretary Robert Gates 80% of the air defense of North Amer- that the Navy and Marine Corps face a ica will exhaust their airframe hours by much larger shortfall of fighter jets than 2017. In the FY10 defense appropria- expected. The Marine Corps never in- tions bill, Congress halted plans to retire vested in the F-18E/F but is counting on about 250 F-15 Eagles and F-16s until a the F-35B version of the JSF to replace review of the situation could be com- its older F/A-18C/D Hornets. pleted and a report issued. That report, In a letter to Gates that was also sent once scheduled for April, “keeps slipping to Adm. Michael Mullen, chairman of to the right,” an official tells this author. the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the legislators But even without retiring its so-called said the Pentagon expectation of a “legacy” fighters, the air defense mission looming “fighter gap” of 100 aircraft is (officially called air sovereignty alert) may Sen. Byron Dorgan

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 9 ports are economic engines for many tween the two branches of the legisla- small communities, and everyone, every- ture, because the Senate bill contains no where, needs to be connected to our na- language on the issue. tional air transportation system.” The Senate measure includes provi- Missing from both bills is language sions aimed at improving cockpit safety, that mandates installation of monitoring including pilot rest rules and a law cameras on the flight decks of airliners. against pilots using laptops, cell phones Several recent incidents, including one and hand-held devices while piloting. fatal crash, have been blamed on pilot The measure also strengthens a federal inattentiveness, and safety officials favor rule, scheduled to take effect April 29, cameras that would supplement existing forbidding planes in most situations from Sen. Jay Rockefeller IV voice recorders. Pilots and privacy advo- sitting unmoving—and loaded with pas- cates oppose installing cameras, and the sengers—for more than 3 hr on the tar- that any additional taxes or fees would idea is on hold for now. mac. Major airlines object to the 3-hr harm small operators at the nation’s The biggest difference between the federal rule, citing backups at New York- smaller airfields. Sen. Byron Dorgan (D- two bills relates to an ongoing debate JFK when a runway is down. Critics say N.D.), chair of the aviation subcommit- about unionization within the airline and the rule is the wrong approach to the tee, told the Senate floor of the value of air cargo industry. The House bill would problem of being stranded on the run- small aircraft—“to travel around the state make it easier for FedEx employees to way: Airlines simply cancel flights to and the country to do commerce, to haul organize locally into union chapters. keep from breaking the rule, adding to parts, to haul people.” Sen. Jay Rocke- FedEx opposes this language, while their crowding and frustration at airports. feller IV (D-W.Va.), chairman of the Sen- rival UPS supports it. The conflict is ex- Robert F.Dorr ate Commerce Committee, said “air- pected to set up a difficult conference be- [email protected]

10 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 AndrewBrookes

Every time there’s an important mili- tem. You can now hang so much capa- Politicians have a duty to protect the tary aircraft acquisition decision, in bility on an aircraft in the 10 to 15 years country’s strategic industrial base and either Europe or the U.S., it always it takes to develop it. technical know-how. By going to the seems to end up in a major contro- How do you get around that? You open market you can lose valuable versy. How can we manage the pro- can’t set the program in aspic. In many skills and knowledge—some would ar- cess better? ways the capability of the Eurofighter Ty- gue that has already happened in the It’s the law of unintended conse- phoon, for example, was set in 1986. If U.K., where we have lost our space quences. In the U.S. and here at one you bought all the components for the technology capability, for example. So time there were quite a few manufactur- aircraft in 1986, and we bought quite a is there a better way to protect a skills ing companies. People could choose and few Motorola chips then for Eurofighter, base without distorting the market? competition could reign. But after con- they would now be totally useless. So The current system is not working— solidation, we arrived at one or two com- you have the dilemma about when to with the Joint Strike Fighter, for ex- panies in the U.K. and not many more buy, as over 10 years there is so much ample, there are still client countries in the U.S. So when a really big contract change. For example, the F-22 is a good trying to access the software they will is opened up to tender it might only in- example where there is so much obso- need to operate the aircraft in the way volve a single company—which means if lescence built in that you end up with not they want. you lose that contract it suddenly looks the aircraft you planned in the first place. If you look at what’s happened in as though Boeing, or whoever, is going the U.K. with the helicopter sector, you to opt out of the fixed-wing market. But a military tanker isn’t like that. had a government minister, Lord Dray- Soon there will just be two major facili- If there is anything that should be son, respected by everyone in the indus- ties in the U.S. for making military air- easy to do, it’s an A400M. I remember try, who said that in exchange for receiv- craft—Fort Worth and Seattle. Ten or 15 being briefed at the start of the A400M ing major orders the U.K. manufacturer years ago they were everywhere. program by EADS staff. “We can design would have to set up centers of excel- So you start by looking for efficien- it like an airliner,” they said. “We’ll agree lence in the U.K. at Yeovilton. This was cies, but you end up with just one or two on the design on the computer—where an idea that was also agreed to by the market players. When the C-17 closes you are going to place the doors, for ex- Italian partner who brought over the de- down in Long Beach, who will be left in ample—and 48 months later you will sign office from Rome. But look what the heavy-lift transport business in the have your aircraft.” But of course it isn’t happens. The minister leaves and the U.S.? I can see the A400M becoming like that. Because it’s then that the poli- whole strategy falls apart. If you look at the great transport aircraft of the USAF. tics come into the program—from the the major international helicopter orders There are better ways of doing it— politics of “you mustn’t close the aircraft recently, they’ve gone to Sikorsky, to but it’s not easy to do when you are try- everybody, in fact, ing to save money and give value to the apart from those taxpayer. “So the answer to the question is to take based in the U.K. And with globalization you have the politics out of the equation and go to the It’s back to ridiculous situation where Boeing is try- marketplace and buy what you want. joined-up thinking. ing to be the U.S. tanker leader against But I’m not naïve enough to think that’s The folks who are is- the wicked Europeans, when Boeing is suing the contracts widely subcontracting across the Pacific. how the business works.” for search and res- Boeing is arguably not much more Amer- cue aren’t necessar- ican when it comes to components than factory in my state” to the politics of ily the military who have signed up to the the EADS/Northrop Grumman aircraft. “you mustn’t have a Pratt & Whitney en- defense industry strategy—the Treasury It’s just that one is trading on its past and gine on it.” Even though it’s not high [the U.K.’s government finance depart- the other is trying to make up ground. technology it’s the political interference ment] aren’t signed up either, they just that stops these programs from pro- want value for money. So how do you But it’s not just the recent tanker bid— gressing as they should. get all the stakeholders to sign up to the it seems we still don’t know how to So the answer to the question is to strategy? If the strategy is to keep all procure military aircraft in general. take politics out of the equation and go these core skills within your country, it It’s because everything now is a sys- to the marketplace and buy what you will only work as long as people keep tem. The temptation is to hang more want. But I’m not naïve enough to think buying the kit. And as we haven’t had and more bells and whistles on the sys- that’s how the business works. any money to keep buying the kit, we

12 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 Interview by Philip Butterworth-Hayes

have not been keeping the strategy go- aerospace industry, especially in the The received wisdom is that China ing. It’s fallen flat on its face. wake of the recent World Trade Or- is just very good at copying and that’s it. ganization ruling [on European gov- The reality is China is very, very good at Are we becoming more protectionist, ernment grants to Airbus]? Will it copying. The latest Chinese helicopter on both sides of the Atlantic? mean that every contract will now be- gunship is powered by a Pratt & Whit- The U.S. certainly—all this ITAR come even more political, even more ney engine they acquired via Canada. waiver issue is nothing to do with tech- influenced by government-to-govern- This will continue to happen, irrespec- nology issues; it’s to do with keeping ment relations and less about what tive of any embargoes. jobs. I’ve been somewhat appalled, as the end user really wants? Is that Airbus has already given China Air- someone half American, that there is where we are heading? bus wing technology for the older Airbus this perception in the U.S. that it’s not We are heading to a world which wings, but as I said to Airbus: “If you are the American way to do the terrible we in the West have not really thought giving them the technology, don’t you things we do in Europe such as subsidiz- through. We’re really Western focused— think that in 15 years’ time they will be beating you in composites?” Once you give away the technology, even older “We’re really Western focused—the U.S. vs. Europe— technology, they will soon be adding the and in the meantime the real advances are being new technology themselves. made in the Far East.” What worries me is that we will be- come too involved in these trade issues between the U.S. and Europe. Chinese ing our industries. But everyone does it. the U.S. vs. Europe—and in the mean- military aircraft and the weapons they The loss by EADS/Northrop Grumman time the real advances are being made in carry are becoming awesome, and they of the tanker contract was a classic piece the Far East. While we are squabbling have acquired them through throwing of dirigiste policy—the French could have over these matters there are remarkable money at the industry. China plans to done it, but with much more panache. advances being made there. put a man on the Moon by 2020. There It’s not the way to do business. The B2 contract keeps going because the government has deliberately contracted out work on the B2 to each of the 50 states. So you know you have 50 states After graduating from Leeds University Staff College.He earned an Open signed up to the program. It might make in the U.K.,Andrew Brookes completed University MBA in 1995 and was trained political sense but it does not make any Royal Air Force pilot training and then in management consultancy at the Civil industrial sense—the best suppliers might logged 3,500 flying hours on reconnais- Service Staff College.His final tour was be in just five states. sance and strike tours.He then joined in Ministry of Defence Consultancy and It’s a great shame because increas- the triservice policy and plans staff of Management Services. ingly protectionism will now rise in Eu- Commander British Forces,Hong Kong. rope as a result [of the KC-X tanker de- After serving on the HQ Strike Command From 1999-2009 Brookes was an aero- cision], which for someone like me, Plans staff,and then in charge of the space analyst at the Inter- dedicated to moving on, is very sad. It multiengine,training and rotary wing national Institute for will give ammunition to those Europeans desks in the Inspectorate of Flight Strategic Studies in who should know better but who will Safety,he was appointed as the last London before now say: “We tried the American mar- operational RAF commander at the being appointed ket, with the presidential helicopter, with Greenham Common cruise missile base. as director of the tanker, but when we win fair and the Air League, square suddenly the goalposts are He spent a year studying international an organization changed.” They will now start saying relations as fellow commoner at that seeks to “why bother?” That worries me because Downing College,Cambridge,before influence U.K.gov- as taxpayers we will all lose and the becoming a group director at the RAF ernment policy vested interests will win out. Advanced Staff College and then on behalf of coordinator of air power studies at the aviation So where does that leave the global the Joint Services Command and industry.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 13 will also be superb long-range fighters, sidies going into communities in the U.S. nately, the Doha round proved that we supported by all the necessary infrastruc- that would otherwise be unsustainable; I are getting poorer at sorting out these is- ture and support assets, over the Taiwan don’t see anything wrong with that. But sues, not better, because of all the other Straits by 2020. the idea that somehow subsidies only baggage that comes into world trade If you are in the market for a new happen in Europe is wrong. talks. fighter you will soon be asking: “Do I In terms of the WTO, it is true that Until recently, far from there being really want to buy a JSF with all the the Europeans were at fault, but the idea more cooperation since the fall of the caveats or should I get one from Beijing that the pristine U.S. had just been taken Berlin Wall, there seem to be more argu- at half the price?” The U.S. is becoming to the cleaners is wrong. ments on issues such as missile defense— too prescriptive in what it does with U.S. an area very conducive to a level playing technology. But these trade issues have to be prop- field—which is a great shame, because erly regulated. In Europe we are mov- we could all end up chasing just one air- Was there any way EADS/Northrop ing toward a more openly regulated craft contract because the process has Grumman could have won the deal? defense market with the development become so expensive. They did win it—it was taken off of the European Defence Agency and them. I was talking with U.S. chiefs of the commission’s increasing involve- What is slightly strange about all this staff and they said it was their job to give ment in this area. Would it be possible is that operationally we are becoming the U.S. public the best product. They to set up an organization to regulate much better at sharing assets, espe- said they were not beholden to any com- transatlantic trade, an open and fair cially tankers, which are being used in pany but that their job was to pick the market—or is that just not possible? Afghanistan and elsewhere. For ex- best product for the U.S. Air Force. They No, it’s possible. The market should ample, Australian tankers are fueling went through an exhaustive procedure be the market. The market should rule— aircraft from many of the different coalition forces. At an operational level we’re much more advanced, and “But the trend is that manufacturers in the Far East will at the acquisition level we seem to be retreating. make the aircraft, and it’s pointless trying to undercut Defense is the last pork barrel in them because they will always be able to beat you.” town. As a politician the only lever you have left to pull is defense. and concluded that this [the EADS/ the winners should survive and the losers If you were running a European aero- Northrop Grumman KC-45] was the should go to the wall. Airbus started off space company now, the biggest mar- best product for the Air Force, at a time with a great deal of help but it did get to ket will still be in the U.S., but there when they really needed the asset as the stage where it was winning against are new threats coming from the Far soon as possible. Boeing on its own merits. You can ar- East. How would you align the busi- The same thing with the presiden- gue: Would it have got that far without ness to exploit the opportunities and tial helicopter—no one gave that contract government support? Well maybe not. defend yourself against threats? The to the Europeans because they owed the But once it was up and running it was selling opportunities are narrowing. Europeans anything. They gave it to Eu- winning contracts on merit and continu- The BAE Systems answer is that rope because it was the best aircraft. ing to win on merit. you opt out of making aircraft and con- Still, what happened? They wanted to Everyone subsidizes, but the idea of centrate on systems. In many ways that’s strap new equipment on the aircraft. bringing bureaucrats to try to regulate it a very creditable argument—but to me They said, “You’ve doubled the price,” is pure Soviet Union. It doesn’t work. that means that after Typhoon we will but that only happened because they no longer make an aircraft in the U.K. I wanted to strap new equipment on it. So But my point is that we should learn find that rather sad. But the trend is that it then became an issue of how can you from what has happened and try to manufacturers in the Far East will make have an American president flying an put in place a new regime that would the aircraft, and it’s pointless trying to Italian helicopter? look at issues such as the ITAR waiver undercut them because they will always and what constitutes fair and unfair be able to beat you. But the WTO issue didn’t help EADS subsidies. There must be a better way in the tanker contract. of organizing it. But that’s not where the value is in But that’s just a smokescreen to me. The WTO is the way. That’s where the supply chain. There are subsidies all over the place. it should be, through processes such as No, there’s no value in that; the No one would live in California if the wa- the Doha rounds, which develop proce- value-added is in the systems. The air- ter wasn’t subsidized. There are vast sub- dures we can all sign up to. Unfortu- craft will be increasingly made outside

14 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 and they’ll be shipped to the U.S. to be Is one of the problems for politicians need it, which means you buy things as riveted. But that won’t last for long. that the technology is now becoming they do in the civil world, on the open so complex—the strategic thinking re- market. I think we’ve gone too far in the How long will that last? quired for buying network-enabled ca- U.K. in not having a strategy that says to Once Far East competitors learn pabilities is so difficult and the plat- the local police chief, “I’m sorry but you how to make the whole wing they will forms themselves are becoming less have to give preference to European or make it themselves and sell it. Now the important in the overall scheme of de- U.K. assets to maximize the industrial competition for the U.S. tanker is be- livering a capability? Understanding base until the time it is really needed.” tween the U.S. and Europe, but in 20 that and putting it in a political con- years’ time there could well be a Chinese text is very difficult. But isn’t that what is happening in the competitor. And it won’t just be a tanker, The problem is, politicians are fight- U.S.? it will have all the latest fittings—like the ing next year’s war the whole time. They Yes, but not in the U.K. latest tanker for the United Arab Emi- are fire-fighting immigration issues or rates, which will be delivered with an Eti- health care and the only money left, in And in France, too? had airline interior. This will be their the U.K. at least, is for the current war in Yes. They wisely worked out that value-added. They will also fit it out as an Afghanistan. People like me are saying they need to invest in an infrastructure aerial communications and command “don’t forget the next war, which will that can expand when the war comes. post aircraft—so suddenly it won’t just be come as sure as God made little eggs.” No one knows what it’s going to be—but a tanker, it will be a tanker, transporter What wise people need to do is set we need to have in place the right peo- and communications platform as well. up a structure that will tick over until you ple to make the right decisions.

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Spaceshuttle: Anastronautlooksatitslegacy

THESHUTTLECOUNTDOWNCLOCKSTOOD orbit. The shuttle can launch 15,900 kg at “L-minus-three,” three launches re- to the 51.6°-inclination orbit of the maining—as engineers were able to deal space station, and routinely returns with the helium isolation valve leak 9,400 kg of cargo from the ISS in the found in Discovery’s right maneuvering Italian-built MPLM. By contrast, the system pod in time for an April launch, ESA-built automated transfer vehicle de- and President Obama had not yet an- livers 7,385 kg to ISS; the JAXA HTV, nounced whether an additional launch, 6,000 kg; the Russian Progress, 2,350 or launches, would be scheduled. kg. The cramped Soyuz can return a Reports of the orbiter fleet’s retire- mere 60 kg of cargo from ISS. Even ment may still be premature. I have a when commercial cargo services debut feeling that this year and next we’ll see in 2011, the shuttle’s truck-like hauling several “final” shuttle launches. capacity will be sorely missed. We are nevertheless nearing the end The shuttle has been the classroom in of the shuttle’s long career, an appropri- space for two generations of NASA’s en- ate moment to examine the craft’s his- gineers, scientists and managers. Its fre- toric and complex legacy. Even after 30+ quent flights, steadily advancing capabil- years of atmospheric tests and orbital ity and long career have built a bridge missions, the shuttle’s outstanding char- that has supported the nation’s space op- acteristics have yet to be matched by erations talent pool until the agency’s other space vehicles. The shuttle orbiters path could match its long-held ambitions. expanded our human capabilities in Carrying just two pilots on its first space a hundredfold. four shakedown flights, each lasting only But the spacecraft, built by human a few days, Columbia and its compan- hands, is an imperfect creation. Com- ions gradually expanded NASA’s experi- promised by tight budgets and conflict- ence base in LEO. Beginning with rela- ing requirements, its career has been Carrying just two passengers, Columbia lifted off tively simple launches of commercial twice marred by terrible tragedy. By rec- for the first time on STS-1, on April 12, 1981. communications satellites, the fleet ex- ognizing how it has fallen short of its panded its capabilities to national defense promises, and building on its many suc- times that), and NASA struggled to find a payloads and satellite rescue and repair. cesses, we can make the next genera- design that was both affordable and at- Commercial cargoes were dropped from tion of spacecraft safer, more efficient tractive to the widest spectrum of launch the STS manifest after Challenger’s loss and better suited to the demands of fu- customers. in 1986, but the orbiters stayed busy with ture exploration. To get the Pentagon to designate the a wide array of scientific missions, every- shuttle as the sole launcher for the largest thing from planetary probe launches to Born in compromise national defense payloads, NASA agreed repeated flights of ESA’s long-duration During its 30 years in service, the shuttle on an orbiter with a 60x15-ft cargo bay, Spacelab module. has averaged about four launches per far larger than necessary for most scien- year. Its large crews (up to eight astro- tific or commercial satellites. Air Force Flexible,reusable science platform nauts) have made it the initial route to requirements were also responsible for In the nearly 20 years between its debut space for about 61% of the 509 human the orbiter’s expansive delta wings. They and the start of ISS construction, the beings who have left the planet. But at delivered the hypersonic cross-range per- shuttle served as a versatile science plat- its conception in the late 1960s, its fu- formance for a first-orbit, high-inclination form, hosting an astounding array of ex- ture was by no means assured. satellite deployment from Vandenberg periments and major payloads, both in- President Richard Nixon, swayed by AFB, California, followed by an immedi- cabin and in the cargo bay. With launch his budget director, Caspar Weinberger, ate reentry and landing back at the base. costs approaching half a billion dollars approved the shuttle’s development Although the larger wings and pay- per liftoff, science customers could have early in 1972. The project was under- load bay required a bigger (and more vul- found a cheaper route to space. But the funded from the start (a $5-billion budget nerable) heat shield, the orbiter could orbiters did offer a reliable platform with target eventually swelled to nearly four then haul impressively large payloads to robust power, pointing and communica-

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tions budgets, and they could return sci- ence payloads to Earth for refurbishment and reflight. A purely robotic space sci- ence program would not hire the shuttle as a launcher. But the shuttle’s expansive The Space Radar Laboratory-2 capabilities for meeting national security in Endeavour’s cargo bay is and human spaceflight priorities allowed backdropped against the blackness of space. it to be made available for science. My two flights with the Space Radar Lab in 1994 were good examples. SRL included an advanced, multifrequency im- aging radar (http://www.jpl.nasa.gov/ radar/sircxsar/) to map the changing face of our planet. Its 40x12-ft antenna weighed 21,380 lb; if flown as a free- flyer it would have required a maneuver- able satellite bus, 10-kW solar arrays, and a high-bandwidth communications system. On STS-59, however, Endeav- our provided pointing, power and com- munications; the crew conducted over minated in complex “catch and release” With construction now more than 400 separate target-tracking maneuvers operations such as the 1992 Intelsat VI 90% complete, the station incorporates and captured the avalanche of digital im- rescue and the stunning recovery of three active research laboratories and a agery on high-capacity tape cassettes. Hubble’s optical performance. STS-61 six-person crew. Shuttles delivered the Best of all, the shuttle enabled the in 1993 restored the telescope’s flawed bulk of the structure, most of its supplies radar to fly twice more, each mission optics, while four subsequent visits re- (including tons of fuel-cell-derived water), more capable than the last, culminating placed its failing systems and upgraded all manner of experiments and outfitting in the shuttle radar topography mission its scientific capabilities to a level never hardware, and a steady stream of multi- (SRTM) in 2000. SRTM created a near- imagined by its designers. national astronaut crews. The end prod- global high-resolution digital terrain map uct is an outpost that now tops 800,000 of Earth’s land masses, a product still be- Not your father’s space shuttle lb in mass, spans 356 ft, and encloses ing used by our military forces and in Seventeen years of robotic, EVA and ren- 12,000 ft3 of pressurized volume, equiv- civil aviation cockpits. dezvous experience positioned NASA to alent to a five-bedroom house. The list of high-value science and se- begin space station construction in De- curity payloads carried by the shuttle is a cember 1998, when Endeavour joined long one, including Spacelab for long- America’s Unity docking node to the duration science investigations in LEO; Russian-built Zarya module. Building an The STS-61 crew planetary probes such as Magellan, Gal- orbiting station was one of the earliest serviced the ileo and Ulysses; the unmatched Hubble tasks envisioned for the shuttle, but not Hubble Space Space Telescope; and military payloads until nearly two decades after its first Telescope while docked such as the Defense Support Program flight did ISS construction actually begin. to Endeavour’s satellites. (In addition, 11 classified shut- During those decades when the nation’s cargo bay. tle missions launched a variety of de- future in space was not at all clear (a sit- fense or intelligence collection craft.) uation in which we find ourselves again The astronauts accompanying these today), the shuttle nurtured larger ambi- cargoes were also capable of dealing tions while providing a stream of re- with balky payload systems that might search results and invaluable operations have threatened loss of mission. The experience. crew on STS-37, for example, freed the From its inception in 1984, the ISS Compton Gamma Ray Observatory’s project depended on the versatile skill set stuck high-gain antenna, and the STS- of the shuttle fleet. The orbiters deliv- 51I astronauts brought the circuitry of ered, using all their unique capabilities— the comatose Leasat-3 satellite back to large upmass, precise proximity opera- life after the four months it spent adrift tions and complex robotics and EVA in LEO. On-orbit repair capabilities cul- functions—to tackle this ultimate mission.

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shuttle has written volumes full of hard- won lessons advancing the science of hu- man spaceflight. Some of the “Do” les- sons: Do design for crew safety and robust escape capability. Split cargo and crew when feasible, to enhance crew survival. Design for minimum life-cycle costs, anticipating a service life meas- ured in decades. Do enable your human crew with provision for robotics and EVA. Design for ease of future upgrades to computers, communications and hu- man interfaces. The “Don’t” lessons are even more Astronaut Nicholas Patrick participates in the mission’s third and final spacewalk as construction and valuable: Don’t expect multiple users to maintenance continue on the international space station. During the spacewalk, Patrick and astronaut guarantee cost savings or streamlined Robert Behnken completed all of their planned tasks, removing insulation blankets and launch restraint operations. Don’t assume reusability is a bolts from each of the Cupola’s seven windows. cost saver—it can limit upgrades and raise turnaround costs. Don’t carry land- There are many ways to build a sistently skirts this life-and-death issue. ing gear and wings to orbit and back un- space station, but without the shuttle, The U.S. owes its astronauts a better less a runway landing is truly a mission the one circling 200 mi. above Earth for chance at survival than the current or- requirement. Don’t keep your vehicle sit- the past 11 years would never have ma- biter can offer. ting exposed on the launch pad for terialized. As the ISS approaches 10 The shuttle has other shortcomings weeks. Don’t retire your sole downmass years of continuous occupancy, the shut- as well. The external tank thermal insu- capability until you have a replacement tle is arguably the one tool whose exis- lation and orbiter tiles are vulnerable to payload return system ready. tence was essential to the permanent severe weather damage on the launch Spacecraft designers will use the habitation of humans off the planet. pad, and to debris impacts during ascent shuttle as a case study for decades to and orbit. The orbiter’s inability to with- come. Brilliant but flawed stand the impact of raindrops in flight In 30 years, no nation has matched the (without suffering severe tile damage) has Into the orbital sunset space shuttle’s capabilities, adaptability caused months of cumulative launch de- Today, the space shuttle approaches its and flexibility. But after two horrifying lays. Although NASA has been recertify- final missions at the top of its game. For accidents that claimed the lives of 14 ing critical orbiter systems over the past crewmembers, shuttle astronauts take an few years, the aging of the fleet means STS-59, the author’s first shuttle ride, began “eyes-open” approach to the vehicle’s thorny problems are sure to keep turn- on April 9, 1994. shortcomings. The design compromises ing up, from corrosion and damaged of the 1970s gave the shuttle large delta wiring to balky valves and propellant sys- wings (protected by thousands of brittle tem leaks. The shuttle’s Achilles heel has heat shield tiles) and stacked the orbiter always been the intensive (and expen- next to millions of pounds of explosive sive) maintenance required for turn- liquid and solid propellants. The crew es- around; that factor is bound to worsen if cape system, a minimal bailout capability extension becomes reality. added after the 1986 Challenger acci- Each time I flew in space, I believed— dent, ties the crew’s fate to that of the I think correctly—that I was strapping orbiter itself. into the best maintained, most thor- In 1986, and again in 2003 after oughly vetted vehicle that human beings Columbia’s loss, NASA examined pro- could ready for launch. In 2010, I be- posals for an escape “pod” that could lieve the machine is in even better rocket the crew clear of a crippled or- shape, with respect to the operations biter. But the cost of such a major modi- team’s corporate knowledge and the skill fication was deemed prohibitive. Post- of its maintainers. But shuttle managers Columbia, the shuttle would fly for at are aware that the storied spacecraft is most five more years, NASA thought, so always just one serious in-flight anomaly forgoing an upgraded escape capability away from being grounded in its tracks. seemed an acceptable risk. Ill-informed congressional talk of adding shuttle mis- Learning from the shuttle sions to close the LEO access gap con- Even if it stopped flying tomorrow, the

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30 years, albeit at great human and eco- the shuttle’s attributes, as part of a broad home at mission’s end. Perhaps I over- nomic cost, it has provided unmatched LEO services contract. looked its shortcomings too easily. But capability for U.S. ambitions in space. This new orbiter would take on EVA when Americans see these magnificent On the day it retires, the nation will lose and robotic operations that cannot be vehicles up close at Udvar-Hazy and a significant portion of its preeminence performed at ISS. Ideally, the successor other museums across the country, we in space. When we will see its equal in would reside on-orbit, robotically ser- should swell with justifiable pride. orbit again is impossible to predict. viced and refurbished. Its crews would The shuttle gave us incredible com- Of greater importance than the loss visit only temporarily (bringing their re- petence and sophistication in space op- of specific capabilities will be the ques- entry vehicle along) to carry out high- erations. It seasoned us with the maturity tion of whether we can retain the talent value repair, rescue or assembly tasks. needed to take on the space challenges pool and collective experience that built This orbital work platform could be re- of a new century. The shuttle’s match- and maintained the orbiter fleet. The configured for various tasks, then up- less legacy should inspire us to craft ma- near-term answer from the administra- graded and expanded as new technology chines even more versatile, able to carry tion seems to be no. makes economic and operational sense. explorers far beyond the orbiters’ lofty Whatever direction the nation adopts The first time I felt the three main reach. Their lasting record of accom- for human spaceflight, we should not as- engines roar to life under me, the first plishment, and that of the team that sume the capabilities lost at shuttle re- time I felt twin solid rocket boosters jolt made it possible, deserves nothing less. tirement will be easy or cheap to resur- and rattle my body to the bone, I was in The final call of “Houston, wheels stop” rect. NASA will not have the budget to awe of the space shuttle. Indeed, I felt should be only the beginning of an excit- build a beyond-LEO transportation sys- somehow indebted to this machine—and ing new story in space. tem and replace the shuttle’s many ca- the people who designed, built and oper- Thomas D.Jones pabilities. Instead, the commercial sector ated it—for enabling ambitious tasks to [email protected] should be asked to provide some mix of be tackled in space, and for bringing me www.AstronautTomJones.com

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Trainer aircraft: Long-term hopes for growth

FOR YEARS, THE TRAINER MARKET HAS BEEN were the smallest turbine-pow- the smallest segment of the world avia- ered aircraft segment—worth tion industry, with annual deliveries in between $1 billion and $2 bil- the $1 billion-$2 billion range and few lion a year. Over the next 10 hopes for growth. The introduction of years, the market will stay at new products and the appearance of about this level. Teal Group new requirements for light attack and ad- forecasts a world market for vanced jet trainers provide some hope, 1,550 turbine-powered trainers but only one program offers genuinely worth $14 billion over the next impressive numbers. Hawk 10 years, up (and down) from 1,383 worth $14.4 billion in A difficult market giving,” pilot training increasingly em- 2000-2009 (all in constant 2010 dol- While the fighter aircraft market grew at phasizes information and systems man- lars). However, this excludes the T-50 a compound annual growth rate of 5.7% agement, rather than aerial flight skills. and any supersonic trainers that may be between 2003 and 2009 (in value of de- This too means more simulator work for delivered. We include these in our jet liveries), the trainer market registered no pilots, and less actual trainer flying. combat aircraft forecast. growth at all. Several factors have kept Meanwhile, more countries are out- the trainer market from growing along sourcing their training requirements, A high-end resurgence? with combat aircraft demand. sending pilots to private schools, other For years, the high end of the trainer Although force structures and train- countries or shared trainer services such market was dominated by BAE’s Hawk. ing requirements have remained intact, as NATO Flying Training In Canada Since 1989, over 50% of the jet trainer air forces inevitably give trainer acquisi- (NFTC). Of course, shared fleets like market has been controlled by the Hawk tions the lowest priority. Combat and these have much greater aircraft utiliza- and Boeing’s T-45 Goshawk, a license- surveillance assets always come first, and tion rates than national fleets, consider- built derivative used by the Navy for car- trainers are at the bottom of the list. As a ably reducing aggregate demand. Since rier training. result, trainer fleets are kept in service shared trainer programs offer a com- However, Alenia’s Aermacchi unit for a very long time. There are plenty of modity service, they do not care what has introduced the M-346, an advanced Saab 105s, Cessna T-37s, Northrop plane does the job, just so long as it jet trainer aimed directly at the Hawk’s T-38s and myriad other old planes still in meets the requirement. They are more share of the market. Launched by the service. Even Israel, with its top-class air likely to use secondhand aircraft such as Italian air force, the M-346 has also force, relies on ancient Fouga Magisters AlphaJets or Impalas. been selected by the United Arab Emi- and TA-4s. In 2008, the country decided Despite all these downward pres- rates for its longstanding 48-unit trainer to rely more on T-6 turboprops, a low- sures on the market, one positive cata- requirement. As of this writing, the UAE cost departure from its traditional re- lyst for growth has emerged. Like its contract has not yet been firmly signed, liance on more capable jet trainers. forebear the F-22, Lockheed Martin’s F- and has been delayed by negotiations Also, as simulators have improved 35 Joint Strike Fighter is distinguished over price. (largely through software advances), they by a purely single fighter configuration. Meanwhile, South Korea has begun have taken over a greater percentage of Unlike almost all jet fighters built, the manufacturing and operating the T-50A the pilot training regime. As modern F-35 does not come as a “B” model, fighter aircraft have become more “for- with room for two pilots. Therefore pi- lots now need to transition directly from an advanced jet trainer to an F-35 solo T-6 flight. This increases the need for a truly superior high-end advanced jet trainer with a relatively seamless transition ca- pability. That means, among other fac- tors, a cockpit that is compatible with the F-35’s. Yet even before the other downward T-50 pressures impacted the market, trainers

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Golden Eagle, the first dedicated super- (through the original shared fleet, the took delivery of the first of eight Hawker sonic trainer built since Northrop’s T-38 Euro-NATO Joint Jet Pilot Training pro- Beechcraft T-6s in December 2009. It ended production in 1972. Designed by gram) and other training services (such as will likely take additional T-6s, including Korean Aerospace Industries and Lock- NFTC). This may prove difficult as Euro- the AT-6 attack version. The AT-6 pro- heed Martin, the T-50 is also being de- fighter and F-35 come on line, increasing totype first flew in September 2009. rived into two combat versions, the A-50 the required level of sophistication. Also in September 2009 Hawker attack jet and the FA-50 fighter. So far, Meanwhile, even Russia is boosting teamed with Lockheed Martin to pursue the only firm customer is South Korea. the high-end market: After decades of the LAAR competition with the AT-6. Since the UAE is technically still up relying on an aging fleet of Czech-built The other leading candidate is Embraer’s for grabs, the T-50 might have a chance Aero Vodochody jet trainers, it has be- EMB-314 Super Tucano. Boeing pro- there (although the M-346 remains the gun procurement of the Yakovlev Yak- posed restarting production of its OV-10 likely winner). Beyond the UAE, Singa- 130. The first production Yak-130 was Bronco, which had ended in 1976. pore has an imminent competition be- delivered to Lipetsk air base in February. It is important to note, however, that tween the M-346 and T-50, a super- LAAR and its cousins will provide only sonic trainer built by Korea. Also looking USAF: LAAR and beyond an incremental level of market demand. at a new trainer buy is Saudi Arabia, While high-end training offers some lim- Production of 200 light combat aircraft whose large Hawk fleet will need re- ited opportunities for aircraft primes, the over five years means just $500 million placement sometime this decade. USAF has announced plans to buy a few a year in business. This will barely com- Europe has the biggest problem with squadrons of turboprop light attack air- pensate for the conclusion of USAF T-6 aging trainers, and 12 European coun- craft for counterinsurgency warfare. In procurement. tries have been contemplating a shared July 2009 the Air Force announced a trainer fleet. In December 2001 they CRFI (capability request for information) The return of T-X agreed to create an Advanced European for its Light Attack and Armed Recon- The one possible catalyst for significant Jet Pilot Training program, also known naissance (LAAR) program. A contract trainer market growth is the USAF’s T-X as Eurotraining. Aircraft selection had is expected this year. The program will program. For years, the service main- been scheduled for 2009 but has been involve procurement of 100 aircraft, tained that it did not need new advanced delayed. Funding for this effort is highly with deliveries beginning in 2012. Addi- jet trainers until after 2020. While the uncertain, despite big plans to couple it tional LAAR aircraft could be procured last T-38 had been built in 1972, the ser- with a new Eurotrainer aircraft. for National Guard units, especially as vice’s fleet of over 500 T-38s had re- This year the situation seems as older fighters are retired. ceived a steady stream of upgrade work hopeless as ever, with the U.K. purchas- Meanwhile, similar smaller require- over the past 15 years. This involved ing additional Hawks and Italy going with ments have emerged for the Iraq and new wings, major engine and engine M-346s. In the interim, European na- Afghanistan air forces. Afghanistan will housing work, and a digital cockpit up- tions will continue to coast on legacy take six firm and 14 option planes under grade. The planes had been redesig- fleets, joint training with U.S. services the light air support requirement. Iraq nated T-38Cs, and looked set to enjoy 50+ year lifespans. However, there have been serious WORLD TRAINER/LIGHT ATTACK MARKET SHARES problems with these fixes, and with T-38 Share by 2010 $billion value reliability in general. After five safe years, two T-38s were lost in crashes in $2.5 May 2008, followed by an Air Force de- cision to ground the fleet temporarily.

2.0 Another T-38 crashed in May 2009. Because of these incidents and other factors, the service has decided to accel- 1.5 erate the T-X, which will replace the T- 38. New plans call for a request for pro- posals in February or March 2011, with 1.0 a downselect to two teams scheduled for September 2011. This will be followed 0.5 by prototype demonstrations, culminat- ing in an award to a single contractor in October 2012. The plan calls for T-X 0 2000 19 2002 1 9 2004 2 2006 20 2008 2010 04 2012 20 2014 6 2016 20 2018 initial operating capability with 12 air- craft in late 2017. Our forecast, how- ever, calls for an 18-month schedule slip, (Continued on page 25)

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Israeli UAVs find a competitive edge

ISRAELI UAV COMPANIES HAVE RACKED UP tems for urgent operational requirements Early on that even led to sales of Israeli an impressive series of victories in recent in Afghanistan. Five of the European mil- systems such as the Pioneer and the months, demonstrating their competitive itaries are now using leasing of Israeli sys- Hunter to the U.S. military. This head strength even when large U.S. budgets tems to meet their needs. start has enabled Israeli companies to and procurements should bolster their build up impressive lists of international American competitors. Innovative services customers. For example, IAI has cus- A number of U.S. allies recently In focusing on the export market, Israeli tomers in 20 countries. have turned to Israeli companies to companies have come up with innova- Elbit, Israel’s other UAV giant, also meet their UAV urgent operational re- tive leasing services that offer customers cites Israel’s long experience as a key ad- quirements in Afghanistan. Poland an- rapid access to UAVs. This has been ex- vantage. Israel and Elbit understood the nounced in February that it would buy tremely important recently in light of ur- advantage of UAVs long ago, says Haim gent operational requirements Kellerman, executive vice president and in Afghanistan. While Boeing general manager of Elbit’s Unmanned has been active in doing leas- Aerial Systems Division. “We started ing for tactical UAV services, fighting the war of terror long ago, and unlike IAI no U.S. company UAVs are a good tool.” has been offering leases of large tactical and MALE (med- Sharing technology,funding R&D ium-altitude, long-endurance) Israeli companies also began gearing Aerostar systems. early for the export market. While U.S. Aeronautics signed the manufacturers have a windfall of orders first leasing contract with the to meet the demands of U.S. forces in Israeli Defense Force in 2001, Iraq and Afghanistan, the Israeli armed says Itay Sherman, director of forces cannot support three companies marketing communications for contending for the domestic UAV mar- Aeronautics Defense Systems’ Aerostar the company. That three-year contract ket—IAI, Elbit Systems and Aeronautics UAV for a $30-million contract to pro- for UAV services enabled the IDF to use Defense. Export orders are essential if all vide reconnaissance and surveillance in Aeronautics’ Aerostar UAV as needed. the Israeli companies are to survive. Afghanistan. In winning the contract, its IAI had its own leasing contract with the Thus they have often been more will- competitive field consisted of only two IDF. That early experience enabled Is- ing than U.S. companies to be more ag- other Israeli companies—Elbit Systems raeli companies such as IAI to refine the gressive in their pricing and provide and Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI). concept, says Uzzi Rozen, president of technology transfer to customers, ac- In October Germany rejected a pur- IAI International, the U.S. arm of IAI. cording to Israeli executives. Israeli com- chase of General Atomics’ Aeronautical This innovative marketing approach panies also pursue joint research pro- Systems Predator B in favor of leasing is only one element of the way Israeli grams with foreign customers to bolster IAI’s Heron. The Netherlands signed a UAV companies are succeeding in being their own research funding. “Since $50-million agreement in March to lease competitive against a larger and better UAVs are a strategic asset, each country Aeronautics’ Aerostar system. financed U.S. industry. wants to have the technology,” and does With these most recent agreements, not want to have to rely on another at least eight armed forces in Afghanistan A head start country for it, says Kellerman. So Elbit will be using Israeli UAVs they have ei- Israeli UAV executives point to their works to help each customer become ther purchased or leased. The Canadian, early presence in the market and three self-sufficient. French, German, Australian and Spanish decades of experience. “We were the “We understand that without sharing militaries will be using IAI’s Heron. The first,” Rozen points out. “Being without our capabilities with local industry, we Dutch and Polish armed forces will be us- any competition [for a long time] is a big are dead,” says IAI’s Rozen. ing the Aerostar and the British military advantage.” The Israeli approach to remaining is using the Elbit Hermes 450. Israeli companies came into the mar- competitive involves generous amounts Germany’s Heron agreement was ket before U.S. and European compa- of company-funded R&D money, often only the most recent lease of Israeli sys- nies could develop their own systems. considerably more than their U.S. coun-

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Skylark customers seek to use UAVs Variety and completeness for different missions such as Creating a broad array of UAVs also electronic intelligence, com- gives Israeli companies an advantage in munications intelligence and marketing their products. For example, maritime patrol, it is impor- once a customer has bought a Skylark tant to develop larger UAVs. UAV from Elbit, the company can de- In addition, Elbit has velop the customer intimacy to aggres- been improving its current sively market Hermes 450, or vice versa. tactical and small UAVs. “It is important to have the full range Over the past several years it to give the customer a variety of UAVs has introduced the Hermes for different missions,” says Kellerman. 90 tactical UAV and the Sky- IAI offers the full array, from 1 lb to lark long-endurance small 10,000 lb, says Rozen. This is funda- UAV, and is continuing the mentally different from the approach Hermes 450 upgrade by used by U.S. companies that generally adding new engines. specialize in one or two niches in the IAI, which builds the market rather than offering a broad Search III tactical UAV, is de- choice of UAVs. veloping the I-View, a new Israeli firms also offer complete UAV terparts spend. IAI targets 4% of rev- family of tactical UAVs, as well as the systems. There is no need to go to sepa- enues for its research funding. Elbit Mosquito, a micro air vehicle weighing rate companies for the air vehicle, avion- spends 8% of its revenues on R&D, an only about 1-2 lb, depending on its con- ics, electrooptical and/or radar pay- exceptionally high level for a defense figuration, says Rozen. In addition, the loads, datalinks and ground station. Elbit company. company has a mini-UAV that comes in and IAI both offer integrated solutions. three versions. This approach offers advantages for op- Company strengths Even Aeronautics, a much smaller timizing the performance of each un- Each Israeli company has a different private company, offers a mini UAV and manned aerial system, says Kellerman. strength. IAI is tremendously strong in a tactical UAV and is also in the process the MALE market through its Heron. El- of developing its own MALE UAV, the Cost advantages bit has considerable clout in tactical and Dominator. This approach of having one company small UAVs through its Hermes family Strangely, this intense competition do everything, with the vehicle and the and Skylark I and II UAVs. Aeronautics, between Israeli companies has strength- payload viewed as a single package, also the smallest of the three, has focused on ened the country’s UAV industry, say translates into greater affordability, says tactical UAVs. several Israeli executives. There is no IAI’s Rozen. Systems such as the Heron Yet each company is using its robust sense of having an indefensible market emphasize affordability in other ways, he UAV funding to introduce products that niche when another Israeli company is adds. In addition to cost, there is a bene- would enable it to compete across the always trying to penetrate it. Having fit to having only one supplier to go to spectrum of UAV capabilities. Elbit has such expertise in multiple companies for system support. just developed its new Hermes 900 to provides synergy as well as the competi- Elbit’s family approach allows the use address the MALE market. It is also look- tive edge to drive a very competitive in- of a common infrastructure such as a ing at larger vehicles, says Kellerman. As dustry, Sherman says. ground station between different UAVs.

WORLD UAV EXPENDITURES FORECAST ($Millions) R&D 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total U.S. 1,520.0 2,200.0 2,100.0 2,300.0 2,250.0 2,100.0 2,100.0 3,600.0 4,100.0 4,700.0 26,970.0 Restofworld 510.0 590.0 650.0 725.0 770.0 805.0 850.0 910.0 1,100.0 1,300.0 8,210.0 TOTAL R&D 2,030.0 2,790.0 2,750.0 3,025.0 3,020.0 2,905.0 2,950.0 4,510.0 5,200.0 6,000.0 35,180.0

Procurement 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Total U.S. 2,020.0 2,775.0 2,435.0 2,045.0 2,160.0 2,620.0 2,545.0 3,030.0 3,320.0 3,370.0 26,320.0 Rest of world 877.4 1,172.4 1,341.4 1,584.0 2,055.8 2,286.9 2,185.6 2,456.2 2,431.5 2,181.9 18,572.9 TOTAL procurement 2,897.4 3,947.4 3,776.4 3,629.0 4,215.8 4,906.9 4,730.6 5,486.2 5,751.5 5,551.9 44,892.9

Total expenditures 4,927.4 6,737.4 6,526.4 6,654.0 7,235.8 7,811.9 7,680.6 9,996.2 10,951.5 11,551.9 80,072.9

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would have the presence it Despite massive UAV budgets in the Heron needs to win U.S. military U.S., Israeli firms believe that continuing and homeland security pro- their current strategy will enable them to grams. In particular, it is in- survive growing U.S. competition. terested in competing with Israeli companies recognize the diffi- General Atomics Aeronau- culties ahead in the market. U.S. firms tical Systems’ Guardian are increasingly focusing on the export variant of the Predator B market, and one or two European UAV for a Coast Guard mar- competitors will likely emerge in coming itime requirement. IAI also years. “We used to be the only ones in demonstrated the capabili- the world,” says Rozen. “The main chal- ties of its Heron for a pos- lenge [now and in the future] is to oper- sible antidrug role in Cen- ate in such a saturated market.” tral and South America, the Caribbean and the Pacific in trials for Focus on selling points Israeli companies also recognize the the U.S. Southern Command in El Sal- The approach Israeli UAV companies need to compete aggressively in the U.S. vador during a month-long demonstra- are adopting is to continue to elaborate market, the world’s largest. Teal Group’s tion that ended in May 2009. strategies concentrating on perform- newly issued World Unmanned Aerial Despite these successes, there have ance, affordability and customer needs. Vehicle Systems 2010: Market Profile also been setbacks. IAI and Elbit recently “We have to excel in order to succeed,” and Forecast estimates that from 2010 paid a steep penalty for Heron deliveries says Kellerman. to 2019 the U.S. will account for $30 being two years behind schedule. They While U.S. industry is now competi- billion of the $35.2 billion spent world- attributed the problems to the contrac- tive, European industry continues to lag, wide on UAV R&D. The U.S. will also tual requirement that they integrate a offering a larger market that Israeli firms account for $26.3 billion of the $44.9 heavy Turkish payload on the UAV that have been very successful in exploiting. billion spent on UAV procurement Indeed major European countries have worldwide. often turned to Israeli industry for their Hermes 450 UAV development needs. In a joint ven- Targeting the U.S.market ture, Thales and Elbit are developing the The importance of the U.S. market is Watchkeeper tactical UAV system for particularly pronounced now. The U.S. the U.K. army. France turned to IAI in will spend $2 billion of the $2.9 billion its development of the Eagle 1 system, spent worldwide on UAV procurement now deployed in Afghanistan. in 2010, according to the Teal Group IAI argues that part of its competitive study. It also will spend $1.5 billion of appeal comes from its focus on reliabil- the $2 billion spent on UAVs in 2010. ity and safety. The same engineering That makes it essential for Israeli group that developed manned aircraft companies to be present in the U.S. mar- for IAI also developed its UAVs. That ket. Elbit has established itself there has helped reassure customers about the through Elbit Systems of America, a busi- safety of the aircraft. Indeed the com- ness that has been developed through a pany was the first to get the approval to string of acquisitions in the U.S. dating operate its UAVs at a regular airshow, back more than a decade. Last year Elbit the Singapore airshow, six years ago, also set up a joint venture with General Rozen says. Dynamics Armament and Defense Prod- Elbit Systems’ approach has been to ucts, targeted at penetrating the U.S. was incompatible with the system. In focus on the UAV as a tool for gathering UAV market. That venture put in its first September 2008 a team of IAI and Boe- information. That makes the command, bid as one of the competitors in a hotly ing Australia lost a contract with Aus- control, communications, computer and contested Navy and Marine Corps small tralia to provide the I-View 250 follow- intelligence system critical. Elbit’s ap- tactical UAS competition. For the com- ing technical problems and a delay of proach is to make the system easy to use, petition, Elbit introduced the Hermes 90, more than two years. to ensure that operators are able to focus a robust, deployable UAV. Still, the Israeli companies appear to on actual operation of the system to ex- IAI also has a history of teaming in have resolved their problems. IAI and El- ploit its intelligence. With a very smart the U.S. to win competitions, having bit paid a penalty to the Turkish govern- platform with autonomous systems, op- worked, for example, with Northrop ment. Moreover, Australia was suffi- erators can focus on the payload. Grumman on the RQ-5 Hunter UAV. IAI ciently interested in IAI’s UAVs that it Philip Finnegan established its Stark Aerospace sub- contracted with the company to provide Teal Group sidiary in Starkville, Mississippi, so that it its MALE services in Afghanistan. [email protected]

24 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 AIRCRAFTlayout_0510.qxd:AA Template 4/13/10 12:24 PM Page 4

(Continued from page 21) on the market. However, there are no based on reasonable expectations of clear indications that the Air Force wants budget availability. supersonic flight training to be part of the Beyond the baseline T-X require- post-T-X training syllabus. The second T- ment, which will cover 350 aircraft, the 50 strength is that it already has an im- Air Force might buy another 150 T-Xs portant U.S. backer, Lockheed Martin. In to replace its T-1 fleet. The T-1s are rel- addition to a significant Washington pres- atively new Hawker Beechjets procured ence, the company has access to possi- in the 1990s to train tanker and trans- ble manufacturing sites across the U.S. It port pilots. However, if the Air Force de- can decide to put its line in any politically cides to merge training of transport/ expedient location. tanker and fighter/bomber pilots, T-Xs The M-346, by contrast, would likely would be tapped to do the job. need a U.S. partner for domestic assem- There is also the potential for a light bly. However, it does offer considerably attack adaptation, a kind of follow-on to lower acquisition and operating costs. LAAR, but more robust and capable. Alenia Aermacchi is also gaining consid- This could even be used to help maintain erable experience creating an M-346- the USAF combat aircraft force structure based training system for the Italian air force. Also, as a subsonic plane, the M- 346 might be more appropriate for any light attack requirements. This is particu- larly true since current plans call for the integration of an active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar, which would be useful for combat missions. The M- 346 is the world’s first trainer/light at- M-346 tack aircraft to be offered with AESA. As a subsonic plane, the M-346 as older types retire and if the F-35 would be far more appealing to the Navy proves too expensive to be purchased at for carrier training, while the T-50 may the currently planned rate. Also, the not be suited for this role at all. How- Navy may purchase a navalized carrier ever, T-X is not a joint program, and the version to replace the T-45 Goshawk. Air Force is under no obligation to take The total requirement for T-X and note of Navy concerns when making an those notional adjunct programs could aircraft selection. be as high as 1,000 planes. This in- cludes the 350-500 baseline T-X train- vvv ers, 200 carrier versions for the Navy, Over the next few years, the trainer mar- and 200-300 light attack versions. ket offers several respectable prizes, If the Air Force adheres to the new both in the U.S. and international mar- schedule, T-X will be filled by an existing kets. If nothing else, it offers actual un- aircraft. This is particularly true since the decided new programs, and most de- Air Force budget has no money for new fense primes are hungry to bid on any trainer aircraft development. kind of new platform. And at a procure- Therefore, unless the Air Force de- ment rate of 48 planes a year, T-X has lays the program to make way for a new the potential to add $1 billion-$1.5 bil- competitor, there are basically three lion a year to a $1 billion-$2 billion a (somewhat predictable) candidate T-X year market. That represents nearly designs: the Hawk, M-346, and T-50. 100% growth. While the Hawk cannot be ruled out, it However, until USAF T-X procure- is a rather old design and will probably ment begins, there are no real drivers be- be eliminated from the competition hind sustainable market growth. The in- fairly quickly. The two remaining com- dustry continues to be hobbled as well by petitors have very different strengths overcapacity, particularly at the high end and weaknesses. of the market. Richard Aboulafia The T-50 has two great strengths. Teal Group First, it is the only new supersonic trainer [email protected]

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MeasuringchangeinEarth’swobble

PICTURES OF WIDESPREAD DEVASTATION rebound.” After the last great glacial pe- in January is about 1 msec longer than a leave no doubt: The 8.8-magnitude riod some 11,000 years ago, many typical day in June. The roughly six- earthquake that struck coastal Chile on heavy ice sheets disappeared. This un- month variation is driven mainly by sea- February 27 was strong. How strong? loaded the crust and mantle of the Earth, sonal winds. There are also changes on NASA scientists say it might have allowing the planet to relax or “rebound” time scales of weeks, years, decades and shifted the axis of Earth itself. back into a more spherical shape. The centuries. “If our calculations are correct, the rebounding process is still under way, Earthquakes throw a “spike” into quake moved Earth’s figure axis by about and so the figure axis naturally moves. GPS signals, and Gross believes he can 3 in. [8 cm],” says geophysicist Richard find it. “I have to take the GPS Earth ro- Gross of JPL in Pasadena, Calif. Measuring a seismic shift tation measurements and subtract the ef- You might think you would have no- The February Chilean quake may have fects of tides, winds and ocean currents,” ticed the Earth suddenly tilting 3 in. But moved the figure axis as much in a mat- he says. “Then the earthquake should that is not how the “figure axis” works. ter of minutes as it normally moves in a stand out.” “The figure axis defines not how Earth is whole year. It was a seismic shift. In addition to GPS, researchers use tilted, but rather how it is balanced,” ex- So far, however, it is all calculation VLBI (very long baseline interferometry) plains Gross. and speculation. “We have not actually to monitor Earth’s rotation and figure Consider the following: The planet is measured the shift,” says Gross. “But I relative to the quasars at the edge of the not a perfect sphere. Continents and intend to give it a try.” universe. oceans are distributed unevenly around The key is GPS. “Using a global net- the Earth. There is more land in the work of GPS receivers, we can monitor The real news north, more water in the south, a great the rotation of Earth with high preci- Recent news reports have focused on ocean in the west, and so on. Because of sion,” he says. He explains that changes Earth’s length of day, noting that the these asymmetries, Earth slowly wobbles in Earth’s spin and the orientation of Chilean quake might have shortened as it spins. The figure axis is Earth’s axis Earth’s axes affect the phase and timing days by as much as 1.26 microsec out of of mass balance, and the spin axis wob- of signals we get from the satellites in 24 hr. That is true. But it is also negligi- bles around it. Earth orbit. ble compared to the normal effect of “The Chilean quake shifted enough GPS already monitors the seasonal wind and tides, which can lengthen or material to change the mass balance of changes in the planet’s spin. Factors shorten days a thousand times more our entire planet,” Gross says. such as tides, winds, ocean currents and than earthquakes can. A shifting figure axis is nothing new. circulation patterns in the planet’s The real news, as Gross sees it, is the On its own, the figure axis moves about molten core modulate its rotation on a possible shift in Earth’s figure axis. The 10 cm per year as a result of “Ice Age regular basis. For instance, a typical day geophysicist has a very “JPL perspec- tive” on the issue: “The antennas we use Scientists will map the rupture site of the 8.8-magnitude earthquake in Chile. to track spacecraft en route to Mars and Credit: Jared Kluesner, David Sandwell, SIO/UCSD. elsewhere are located on Earth. If our tracking platform shifts, we need to know about it.” No one has ever measured a shift in Earth’s axis due to an earthquake before. Back in 2004, Gross looked for a shift from the magnitude-9.1 quake in Suma- tra, but failed to find a signal. The Suma- tra quake was less effective in altering Earth’s figure axis because of its location near the equator and the orientation of the underlying fault. The Chilean quake, albeit weaker, may have produced a big- ger shift. The stage is set for discovery. “Com- puting power is at an all-time high. Our

26 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 NOTEBOOKlayout.qxd:AA Template 4/13/10 12:17 PM Page 3

reported that the principal cause of the itational torque exerted by the Moon, Chandler wobble is fluctuating pressure Sun and planets, displacements of mat- on the bottom of the ocean, caused by ter in different parts of the planet and temperature and salinity changes and other excitation mechanisms. wind-driven changes in the circulation of The observed oscillations can be in- the oceans. He determined this by ap- terpreted in terms of mantle elasticity, plying numerical models of the oceans to Earth flattening, structure and properties data on the Chandler wobble obtained of the core-mantle boundary, rheology during the years 1985-1995. These nu- of the core, underground water, oceanic The research vessel Melville will take advantage of merical models had become available variability and atmospheric variability on an unprecedented opportunity. Credit: SIO/UCSD. only recently through the work of other time scales of weather or climate. Un- researchers. Gross calculated that two- derstanding the coupling between the models of tides, winds and ocean cur- thirds of the Chandler wobble is caused various layers of our planet is also a key rents have never been better. And the by ocean-bottom pressure changes and aspect of this research. orientation of the Chilean fault favors a the remaining one-third by fluctuations Several space geodesy techniques stronger signal.” in atmospheric pressure. He says the ef- contribute to the permanent monitoring In a few months Gross hopes to have fects of atmospheric winds and ocean of the Earth’s rotation by IERS. For all the answer. currents on the wobble are minor. these techniques, the IERS applications are only one part of their contribution to A century-old mystery Monitoring Earth’s rotation the study of planet Earth and the rest of In 2000 Gross offered a solution to one Gross credits the wide distribution of the the universe. of the wobbles manifested by the spin- data that underlay his calculations to the The measurements of Earth’s rota- ning Earth: the century-old mystery of creation in 1988 of the International tion are under the form of time series of Earth’s “Chandler wobble.” The phe- Earth Rotation Service, based in Paris. the so-called Earth Orientation Para- nomenon is named for its 1891 discov- Through its various bureaus, he writes, meters. Universal Time (UT), polar mo- erer, Seth Carlo Chandler Jr., a U.S. the service enables the kind of interdisci- tion and the celestial motion of the pole businessman turned astronomer. The plinary research that led to his solution (precession/nutation) are determined by Chandler wobble is one of several wob- of the Chandler wobble mystery. VLBI. The satellite-geodesy techniques, bling motions exhibited by Earth as it ro- The International Earth Rotation and GPS, satellite laser ranging and DORIS tates on its axis, much as a top wobbles Reference System Service (IERS) is (Doppler orbit determination and radio- while it spins. tasked with monitoring the irregularities positioning integrated on satellite) deter- Scientists have been particularly in- of the Earth’s rotation. mine polar motion and the rapid varia- trigued by the Chandler wobble, whose The variability of the Earth-rotation tions of UT. cause has remained a mystery even vector relative to the body of the planet The satellite-geodesy programs used though it has been under observation for or in inertial space is caused by the grav- in the IERS give access to the time varia- over a century. Its period is only around tions of Earth’s gravity field, reflecting 433 days, or just 1.2 years, meaning it the evolution of the globe’s shape, as takes that amount of time to complete POLE CORDINATES (XP,YP) well as the redistribution of masses in the 1/1/09 one wobble. The wobble amounts to –170 planet. They have also detected changes about 20 ft at the North Pole. It has 12/27/09 in the location of the center of mass of been calculated that the Chandler wob- –250 the Earth relative to the crust. This dis- ble would be damped down, or reduced 10/16/09 covery makes it possible to investigate to zero, in just 68 years, unless some –370 global phenomena such as mass redistri- force were constantly acting to reinvigo- 3/14/09 butions in the atmosphere, oceans and rate it. solid earth. But what is that force, or excitation –410 UT and polar motion are available mechanism? Over the years, various hy- 8/5/09 daily with an accuracy of 0.5 mas (mil- potheses have been put forward, such as –490 liarcseconds), and celestial pole motion

atmospheric phenomena, continental Y (MAS) TOWARD 90° EAST 5/25/09 data are available every five to seven water storage (changes in snow cover, –610 days at the same level of accuracy. This river runoff, lake levels or reservoir ca- –140 –60 20 100 180 260 estimation of accuracy includes both pacities), interaction at the boundary of X(MAS) TOWARD GREENWICH short-term and long-term noise. Subdaily Earth’s core and its surrounding mantle, variations in UT and polar motion are The normal wobble of Earth’s axis since January and earthquakes. 2009 is reported by the International Earth also measured on a campaign basis. Past Writing in the August 1, 2000, issue Rotation Service. The grid is scaled in milliarc- data, going back to the 17th century in of Geophysical Research Letters, Gross seconds, one of which equals 1/3,600,000 deg. some cases, also are available.

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Exploring the rupture site Several years ago IFM-GEOMAR re- JPL’s researchers are not the only scien- searchers conducted a detailed multi- tists interested in the consequences of beam mapping survey off Chile. Their the Chilean earthquake. Others, funded data will be valuable for comparisons by the National Science Foundation with the new survey to expose changes (NSF) and affiliated with the Scripps In- from the earthquake rupture. AIIAAA stitution of Oceanography (SIO) at the “We would like to know if the gene- University of California at San Diego, sis of the resulting tsunami was caused FORMMS are undertaking an expedition to explore by direct uplift of the seabed along a the rupture site of the 8.8-magnitude fault, or by slumping from shaking of NEWW EARTTH quake, which was one of the largest in sediment-covered slopes,” says Dave recorded history. Chadwell, an SIO geophysicist and chief OBBSERVATTIOON The scientists hope to capitalize on a scientist of the expedition. He says they unique scientific opportunity to capture will look for disturbances in the seafloor, TAASK FFORCEE fresh data from the event. They will including changes in reflectivity and pos- study changes in the seafloor that re- sibly shape, by comparing previous data sulted from movements along faults and with the new rapid response data. AIAA has created a new submarine landslides. The rapid response cruise is possible The “rapid response” expedition, because Melville is currently in Chilean task force to assist in the called the Survey of Earthquake And waters, where a research team has been formulation of a national Rupture Offshore Chile, will take place conducting an investigation of the geol- road map for the U.S. to aboard the research vessel Melville. The ogy and biology of the Chilean margin. address investments in the Melville was conducting research off “This is a unique case in which we Chile when the earthquake struck. have the shipboard assets, the scientific Earth-observing industry “This rapid response cruise is a rare agenda and the funding all in place,” to adequately inform future opportunity to better understand the says Bruce Appelgate, associate director climate change debates processes that affect the generation and for ship operations and marine technical size of tsunamis,” says Julie Morris, NSF support at SIO. “The earthquake was a and decisions. Composed division director for ocean sciences. tragedy for the people of Chile, but we of leading experts on policy “Seafloor evidence of the quake will con- hope this opportunity enables important and climate-monitoring tribute to understanding similar earth- new discoveries that can help us plan for quake regions worldwide.” future events.” technology from within The rapid response mission includes The logistical details of undertaking AIAA and in collaboration swath multibeam sonar mapping of the the expedition are enormous and con- with other organizations, seafloor to produce detailed topographic stantly evolving because of uncertainties maps. Data from mapping the earth- regarding transportation infrastructure in the task force is developing quake rupture zone will be made public Chile. Port facilities are limited by wide- a strategy to come up with soon after the research cruise ends, spread earthquake devastation, which recommendations to help Morris says. has made fueling and provisioning the The new information will be com- ship difficult. reach this goal. pared with prequake data taken by sci- Chadwell and SIO scientist Peter entists at Germany’s Leibniz Institute of Lonsdale, plus graduate students Jared For more information, Marine Sciences (IFM-GEOMAR). Kluesner and Ashlee Henig, and Scripps Geological Data Center analyst Aaron contact Craig Day Sweeney will be aboard Melville for the at 703.264.3849 eight-day expedition. The scientists, along with Scripps re- or [email protected]. searchers Mike Tryon and Mark Zum- berge, also will deploy depth sensors on the seafloor to record possible abrupt vertical motions over the next year. Joining the U.S. scientists will be Chilean researchers Juan Díaz and Matias Viel González from Universidad The chart shows observed changes in Earth’s Católica in Valparaíso, as well as scien- length of day caused by tides, winds, ocean currents and other factors. (From Treatise on tists from IFM-GEOMAR. Geophysics, 2007, section 3.09, “Earth Rotation Edward D.Flinn Variations—Long Period” by Richard Gross.) [email protected]

28 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010

A slow transformation

The technologies needed for making the Next-Generation Air Transportation System a reality are already available,says the FAA.But real progress,which so far has been frustratingly slow,will depend on cooperation by all stakeholders—and, as always, on funding.

he past two decades have seen the Changing conditions rapid evolution of several new tech- When NextGen was inaugurated, air travel nologies that are already having an was at a peak, with growth expected to con- Timpact on commercial air traffic tinue at a significant pace. Boeing and Airbus management. In 2004, the Dept. of Trans- had new jetliners under development to help portation announced the Next-Generation Air airlines increase and modernize their fleets. Transportation System (NextGen), an effort to That influx of new aircraft was expected to transform U.S. air traffic management (ATM) help speed NextGen implementation by in- by bringing those technologies together in a corporating required airborne capabilities with unified new system. the initial purchase rather than as retrofits. NextGen, a partnership of the FAA, in- Anticipating such developments, some dustry, NASA and the Departments of De- airlines had begun including GPS and other fense, Commerce and Homeland Security, advanced system capabilities in aircraft they calls for a three-phase program, in the near purchased as early as the mid-1990s. Accord- term (through 2013), midterm (2013-2018) ing to the Air Transport Association (ATA), and far term (2018 and beyond). These ef- some aircraft already are being retired with forts also are to be coordinated with the Sin- equipment the airline was never able to use. gle European Sky ATM Research (SESAR) “The industry has spent hundreds of mil- program of the European Organization for lions of dollars on NextGen already. All the the Safety of Air Navigation (Eurocontrol) and aircraft developed in the last several years had other international ATM organizations and NextGen technology built into them. At one modernization programs. point, that was probably optional equipment; “The aviation industry—from the makers today it is standard, so it is hard to calculate of planes to the people and companies who that cost,” says ATA vice president for opera- fly them, from foreign air navigation service tions and safety Basil Barimo, the associa- providers to local airports—all agree that, with tion’s NextGen technology lead. adequate resources, we, government and in- “And airlines are investing in upgrades to dustry can work together to bring NextGen to existing aircraft, such as new displays, flight implementation in 3-5 years instead of the management systems and GPS capability. I 10-15 years that is currently pegged,” Aero- don’t have a specific number, but it is probably space Industries Association president and north of $1 billion when you add in new deliv- former FAA administrator Marion Blakey told eries and retrofits.” a symposium on ADS-B (Automatic Depend- ent Surveillance-Broadcast) last fall. Estimating costs “So, what is holding us back? Funding. From the beginning, estimates for the total Not an inconsequential barrier when you con- cost of NextGen were roughly $40 billion, sider the economy, the state of the airline in- split about evenly between government and dustry and multiple priorities weighing on the industry—half for ground infrastructure, half by J.R.Wilson administration and Congress.” for airborne equipage. With changes in both Contributing writer

Copyright© 2010 by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics. AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 31 “The operators are saying, before they equip with the next generation of technology, they would like to see some benefits from what they’ve already invested in, which will go a long way toward making the case for further investments.”

Margaret Jenny, president, RTCA

technology and political leadership, however, fits, is decades away, while we had something the estimates have become somewhat murky. that could generate real benefits, add capacity “Those numbers were created several and remove a lot of delay and frustration to years ago, and I really don’t have any new the flying public in a few years.” numbers to cite, but I don’t think we want to The airlines are even more unhappy rely too heavily today on that $20 billion,” about increasing tariffs and taxes to pay for says Michael Romanowski, the FAA’s director the government’s side of NextGen. of NextGen Integration and Implementation. “That is not an acceptable way to fund “We’re continuing to refine the expenditures our nation’s aviation system. We should have required, but they will be significant on both a funding mechanism that is equitable and re- the government and industry side. If you look liable and provides for investment in new ca- at the 2010 budget request, that is some- pacity and capability,” Barimo argues. “The where around $6 billion-$7 billion in the next key there is equity. The system today collects five years.” money from airline passengers to subsidize Industry is concentrating on near-term the use of the system by others. If we use 70% costs, trying to ensure that what is spent now of the FAA’s services, we should pay for 70%, puts both sides on the right path and sched- not 94%, as it is today.” ule. As a result, a primary focus is on ADS-B Romanowski says NextGen is on sched- and Area Navigation (RNAV), considered ule and on budget for nationwide deployment NextGen front-end components. of major components by 2013, with ADS-B now installed and operational in south Florida, Gauging results performing aircraft separation in the terminal But progress to date, Barimo says, has been phase for the first time in Louisville, Ky., and, “a huge disappointment” to the airlines, air- as of January 2010, in the Gulf of Mexico. craft manufacturers and the business and gen- “Any equipped aircraft flying at altitude, eral aviation communities. “We saw an invest- but more significantly the helicopter commu- ment of several billion in NextGen as really nity [servicing offshore oil rigs], will have sur- smart, when you consider the benefits associ- veillance coverage in the gulf for the first time, ated, the jobs that would be created and the interfaced with the en route host system,” he fact it would put us at the leading edge of this says. “In February, we will go operational with new capability compared to the rest of the ADS-B in the Philadelphia area, a terminal world—and so in a position to export the tech- environment integrated with STARS [Stan- nology and services,” he says. dard Terminal Automation Replacement Sys- “It made perfect sense, so the airlines tem]. And in April, we have Juneau integrat- were absolutely frustrated that the govern- ing ADS-B with MicroEARTS.” (Philadelphia ment spent tens of billions on high-speed rail is now live.) development that, if it ever brings real bene- Commenting on those plans in mid-Janu- ary, Blakey expressed the mixed feelings that have begun to permeate the industry’s view of NextGen: “While we are greatly encouraged by the progress demonstrated so far, there is still much to be done. Congress has opportu- nities in the jobs bill and the FAA reauthoriza- tion to promote accelerated implementation of NextGen and incentivize further investment in our aerospace infrastructure. We estimate the total number of direct and indirect jobs generated by an approximate $6-billion in- vestment in NextGen equipment at more than 150,000 through 2012, with 30,000 jobs generated the first year.” Among the most outspoken critics of the FAA’s efforts in general and NextGen in par- A helicopter takes off from ticular is aviation consultant Michael Boyd, a Gulf of Mexico platform. president of Boyd Group International: “We

32 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 get the same speech from the FAA every year, see no results, then say we’re making prog- ress. But at the end of the day, we’re no fur- ther ahead than we were in 2000, when Bill Clinton dragged airline presidents to the White House and said we’re going to end delays.” “We have a new FAA administrator, new Transportation secretary, RTCA report—but no results. They point to ADS-B—which is late. Where are the results to give the nation the air transport results it needs? There aren’t any. The one iron-clad, unshakable truth is they haven’t made any progress in 20 years. None,” Boyd notes.

Task Force report Boyd was referring to the final report of the RTCA Task Force on NextGen Mid-Term Im- plementation, issued on September 9, 2009. Next Gen technologies are under The task force was created in January 2009 test in many different labs. at the request of the FAA to develop a com- Image courtesy Lockheed Martin. munity-wide consensus on NextGen opera- “The big focus is on RNAV, in which tional improvements to be implemented some have invested heavily. That requires new through 2018, with a focus on how to maxi- routes, procedures, training, potentially even mize benefits to justify industry investment. some changes to airspace, all of which are be- “We came up with a set of recommenda- yond technology—if we can’t get them done, tions that are very airportcentric, starting at we don’t get benefits. [Airlines] are saying they the surface and making traffic safer and more already have some of this equipment and so efficient on the runways, then using the exist- far are not seeing all the things that need to be ing capacity of the runways—focusing on air- accomplished for them to get full benefits.” ports with closely spaced parallel runways— and using those to the full extent before trying “Things are going forward aggressively, with a lot of progress to do new things,” RTCA president Margaret on the ground infrastructure side.” Jenny tells Aerospace America. Next would be “moving out to metro ar- Michael Romanowski, director, NextGen Integration and eas with multiple airports and using technol- Implementation, FAA ogy to let them operate independently, so problems at one airport don’t affect the oth- The report also concludes that the FAA ers. If you can reduce delays at the airports, already is well positioned, from a budget per- you go a long way toward reducing problems spective, to implement its recommendations, system-wide,” says Jenny. which Jenny says require little, if any, new in- The report says an incremental imple- frastructure. “A lot of what is being asked for mentation of en route procedures and data is procedures, streamlining processes, train- communications (datacom) would allow for ing, potential airspace modifications, etc. more direct, user-preferred routes, increase That’s step one,” she says. “As we move into air traffic controller productivity and reduce midterm and beyond, they need to finish what errors associated with voice communications. is currently planned, such as the en route au- For example, controllers would be able to re- tomation system to accommodate Datacom. route multiple aircraft around weather with a In accommodating the recommendations, they single push of the button rather than dealing may need to reprioritize what they are doing, with each individually. but it doesn’t call for any new programs. “Every piece of technology must be “The airlines might be looking at some linked to an operational capability that deliv- upgrades to their flight planning system to take ers new capacity. So it isn’t just putting in new advantage of some of this, which would be the equipment on the ground or on the plane, but major ground infrastructure investment. For being able to fly differently—better routes, re- airborne, the majority of near- and midterm duced separation among aircraft, etc. You really depends on how a carrier’s fleet is cur- have to go all the way to the operational ca- rently equipped. Some already have RNAV, pability and not just have infrastructure pro- some Datacom. Getting to midterm is a mini- grams. That was a pretty loud, clear message mal investment for the airlines, while getting to from the task force,” Jenny says. long-term is a substantial investment.”

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 33 of international carriers on the task force. While standardization has always been a driver in global aviation, she notes, the seven months the group had in which to complete its work was not enough to permit a thorough mapping against international efforts. “We want to ensure what we deploy is fully interoperable with what is being deployed in other regions of the world,” Romanowski adds. “It doesn’t make sense to have systems that are incompatible and force aircraft to be dually equipped. So we are spending a great deal of effort to develop harmonized stan- dards for elements of NextGen and SESAR. “We work very closely with our partners, from the regulatory environment for national standards to a broader international frame- work, such as ICAO. We also use groups like RTCA and EUROCAE [European Organisa- tion for Civil Aviation Equipment] to help us NextGen will provide controllers develop the technical standards for avionics, the tools they need to safely for example.” handle the projected steady Next steps increase in air traffic forecast The primary short-term goal is to map the through 2025 (operations are Keeping up with Mongolia expected to increase 1.2% a task force recommendations into the FAA’s In some ways, having no major legacy ATM year at TRACON facilities, current plan. This may involve what RTCA system has been an advantage for certain na- 1.3-1.9% a year at towers, and terms slight modifications within each time tions in developing NextGen-like systems of 2.4% a year at ARTCCs, according to the FAA Aerospace Forecast, frame. The most significant of those would be their own. “While we have a great infrastruc- Fiscal Years 2009-2025). moving to an airport-centric approach, imple- ture that has worked well, it also makes it menting as much NextGen technology as pos- more challenging for us to transition to a new sible—with accompanying procedural changes system. China and India don’t have that ex- and training—within a few major metropolitan tensive infrastructure in place, so it is relatively areas, rather than following the original na- easy for them to embrace some of this new tional deployment plan. technology and capability,” Barimo explains. “Frankly, Mongolia has a more advanced sys- tem than we have in the U.S. “This may be a tough challenge, but really—what are we waiting for? “We’re anticipating those nations will continue to move aggressively on this and will The challenge is clear and the way forward is plain; we have the tech- have a system we envision as NextGen in nologies and we can garner the resources if we have the political will.” place before us. It’s not really who gets there Marion Blakey, president, Aerospace Industries Association, first, but that we are all heading in the same and former FAA administrator direction. A major concern by the airlines is we end up with different requirements in dif- ferent parts of the world. So we want to make Collaboration with the airlines is consid- sure whatever way nations move, we all move ered critical to success. This would include the toward the same objective.” Barimo believes development of technical standards to be fol- that is happening at this point, with the world lowed, not only for the FAA NextGen system, embracing ADS-B and RNAV, which are sig- but worldwide. nificant for global harmonization. “We [in RTCA] work, often on joint com- mittees, with our counterparts in Europe and Maintenance,money and politics with ICAO,” Jenny says. “At the concept Another concern for ATA is the cost of con- level, there also is work between the FAA and tinuing to pay for upkeep on the current ATM Eurocontrol to come out with harmonization system even as it is being replaced. between NextGen and SESAR. A lot of work “We have a network that is, in some has been done to compare those two and cases, nine layers deep in the U.S. that we keep them in synch.” won’t need when we complete this transi- Because the RTCA report focused on tion,” Barimo says. “Today, the vast majority near- and midterm issues, in which new stan- of the money the FAA spends goes to main- dards were not an issue, it did not really ad- taining the current system instead of investing dress harmonization, despite a large number in new capability. And that is part of the chal-

34 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 lenge, because it will become political. “If we have an 85% solution with existing “These [legacy] installations are in all 50 technology, we should go ahead and imple- states, in almost every congressman’s district, ment that and not wait until we have the providing high-paying jobs for their constitu- 100% solution, even though that might re- ents. So when we talk about consolidation of quire a lot bigger investment in the next incre- facilities, we’ve already seen politics come into ment of that technology,” Jenny says. “We play. For the military, the BRAC [base reloca- have to stop getting halfway down the road, tion and closure] process has provided an an- seeing a new technology coming around the swer to a similar type of process; that might corner and waiting for that instead of imple- be valuable at some point.” menting what we’ve already got. Many in industry were concerned by the “A lot of people say you don’t want to slowness of the administration in naming its open the airplane infrastructure more than new secretary of transportation and FAA ad- once, because it is very expensive to upgrade ministrator—and even more so by the lack of an airplane. But the task force said if you have funds devoted to NextGen in the president’s a positive business case every time you open trillion-dollar economic stimulus plan. Randy the airplane, you shouldn’t worry about it.” Babbitt, who was the original RTCA Task While the ADS-B installations will dra- Force chairman before being named FAA ad- matically improve operational efficiency and ministrator, has pledged to make NextGen his safety, especially in the gulf, Romanowski number-one priority, but some in industry are says, the airlines still need to make additional not sure he has sufficient backing from the ad- investments to take full advantage of NextGen ministration or Congress. capabilities as they are brought online. “I think the fact the stimulus money did not come pouring into NextGen has a lot to “We are getting the new technologies faster than anticipated do with us failing to make our case on what and hope to gain most of the benefits in the next five years.” the return on investment might be,” Jenny says. “I agree things could be expedited, ac- Randy Babbitt, FAA administrator celerated; but we have to accelerate the deliv- ery of benefits, not just programs or equipage. So it is a complex, integrated problem. “We see three capabilities the aircraft will “I would agree we need to have much have to have to get NextGen benefits—ADS- more explicit, measurable near-term goals B, Datacom and RNAV. Currently, most air- than we have had. So far, NextGen has been craft are not equipped for ADS-B. With Data- too far out in the distance in actually being com, the task force said, there is tremendous able to deliver benefits to those being asked to ability to leverage installed—but not turned invest; 2025 is pretty hard for an airline los- on—communications capability from FANS ing money today to care about. What is im- [Future Air Navigation System],” he says. portant to focus on is getting the first phase “They asked us to accelerate deployment done, which will help incentivize investment in of Datacom capabilities for departure clear- the next phase.” ances, revisions and moving to some en route Romanowski says NextGen has “incredi- services. We can do that very effectively by bly strong support from the administration turning on and leveraging that FANS capabil- and Congress and the stakeholders,” but ity, which will provide operators with a benefit while some technologies have been available they already have installed. A very high per- for a decade or more, it is essentially a new centage of the fleet also is already equipped program. for RNAV, so we can take advantage of that “It is a large-scale integration issue, inte- right away.” grating technology into a system that is oper- ating at an extremely demanding pace today. Incremental,or intolerably slow? We have to have the right policies, the right Given the wide range of capabilities involved— procedures, the right technologies, the right and continued technological evolution—Next- commitment—not just from the FAA, but from Gen and its counterparts such as SESAR will the operators, manufacturers, airports—and never be completely finished, the FAA notes. the right political environment. But,” he con- Nor will it have a specific start date. tiues, “it is achievable.” “The systems will not turn on at the throw of a switch anywhere. What you will see, wher- The role of industry ever capability is being implemented, is a Making NextGen a reality also depends heav- staged, incremental approach. So saying when ily on how the airlines approach whatever NextGen becomes operational really means changes they must make, in areas including when various parts of it become operational in pilot training and on-board equipment. various locations,” Romanowski says.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 35 An aircraft equipped with ADS-B (a moving map display showing FIS-B and terrain) flies over Alaska.

“The FAA is delivering NextGen, in a some of his central concerns. number of areas, a number of ways—from sys- “Historically, FAA and industry have been tems deployment to demonstrations of capa- very much technology focused—buy some bility to providing operational capability in the piece of equipment and put it on the airplane, field today, moving forward with future de- buy some infrastructure on the ground and ployments and delivery of procedures. In the magically something good would happen,” coming years, we will see significant capabil- Barimo says. “What we found is the benefits ity brought to bear that, when installed, will never really surfaced and, while we had new result in a fundamental change in how ATC is technology in the airplanes and on the done and a new foundation on which we will ground, we didn’t invest in the development be able to grow our continued infrastructure of the procedures and new standards and poli- to even greater capacity in the long term.” cies that enable us to take advantage of that. But critics like Boyd remain unconvinced. “So today, rather than talk about new “NextGen does not look at the needs of technology, we talk about new capability. America, but at what the FAA can or cannot That may seem a subtle difference, but it is ex- do. And that approach is fatally flawed,” he tremely important. We built a lot of slop into argues. “We have to start from scratch—not the system due to limitations in place; now we what the FAA can do or has done or wants to want to change the protocols that govern how do. Why do we have separation gaps when we space traffic, using the new precise infor- we are only dealing with 4% of the sky? The mation we have to move aircraft closer to- free flight system we outlined 15 years ago gether while maintaining the same level of showed we don’t need separation gaps. safety. That would translate into additional ca- “We have to stop trying to modernize the pacity, which translates into fewer delays.” buggywhip. The horse is dead. You have to Jenny agrees. “At this point, NextGen is clean out the current system and start using all not a technology issue,” she concludes. “You the sky; put in a sat-based conflict probe free- probably could characterize it as an institu- flight system, where the airplane takes the tional issue. We have to find a way for all of us best route for its purpose. The FAA is now ir- to work together and couple the technology relevant to the solution. They can’t do it. The with all the other things we need to do to airlines are going to have to work harder to make this whole system work better. That will adjust and manage their own production line.” take some pretty skilled leadership, continued collaboration and openness to doing things Capability,not technology differently by almost everyone. Boyd’s position marks the harshest criticism “We still have a little work to do on the facing NextGen. But even those who support operator side to further prioritize what we do it as the best solution for airports, airlines and first and, on the FAA side, to figure out ways a critically strained ATC system often reflect to do these very complex, integrated imple- mentations that require working across multi- ple organizations. Somehow all that has to co- “I have no confidence this is going to work.The public is simply being alesce and get people focused on the end bamboozled by the FAA about how this is working.” implementation. And that is not going to be Michael Boyd, president, Boyd Group International, aviation consultants easy.”

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or many reasons, 2010 Fwill be a decisive year for Europe’s $30-billion Single Eu- ropean Sky ATM Research (SESAR) program. With the technology devel- opment phase of the effort well under way, it should start to be- come clear this year how the mature technologies will be de- ployed throughout the conti- nent in 2014 and beyond, and where the main synergies and differences lie between the Eu- ropean SESAR and U.S. Next- EUROCONTROL’s Maastricht Upper Area Control Centre is a hive of activity. Gen ATM programs. The real challenges facing SESAR are not technical but institutional. When Europe decided it would develop its new ATM system on a transnational rather than state-by-state basis, it loaded several layers of complexity onto the program.

Implementation and other challenges “The technical challenges are relatively easy to solve,” says Patrick Ky, executive director of the SESAR joint undertaking, responsible for implementing the development phase of SESAR. “The real difficulty is finding the right compromise to make those technologies implementable—the com- promise between the cost and the return on investment, and the compromise between the needs by Philip Butterworth-Hayes of specific stakeholders and other stakeholders. In Europe we have 27 member states, and that Contributing writer means 27 regulators, 27 air navigation service providers (ANSPs) and 27 air forces. This compli-

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The Single European Sky ATM research program faces key challenges, most of them institutional and policy-related. Harmonization of all SESAR elements—both among European countries and with the U.S. NextGen system—is a major issue facing this $30-billion program.

cates the issue of decision-making. So SESAR is about 20-30% technical challenges, and the rest is about decision-making and finding the right compromises.” Every European state has a different way of defining the role of the regulator—a government function—and the role of an ANSP, which may be a government function but may also be a corp- oratized organization. That means that in some countries, functions such as safety-critical aero- nautical information services are seen as primarily the responsibility of the state, while in others they are ANSP obligations. In some European countries (such as Ireland), airports and ANSPs are linked in the same organization, while in others (like the U.K.), airports are mainly privately owned and their ATM functions put out to tender. And every country has its own way of coordinating mil- itary and civil ATM functions. This fragmentation is a major cause of the relative inefficiency of Europe’s ATM system com-

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SESAR: Goals, scope and methodology The SESAR goals are to triple airspace capacity by 2020 in Europe,halve the costs of providing air navigation services,reduce the environmental impact per flight by 10% over 2005 levels and improve safety by a factor of 10. A new concept of operations SESAR plans to overcome the problems of Europe’s fragmented ATM system by introducing a new concept of operations. The new architecture will be de- signed to enable the aircraft of the future to choose the safest and most efficient route from origin to destination by building a “network-enabled” ATM capability, linking aircraft operators, ANSPs, airports and others. Many of the current functions will be automated. Data-link messages will replace voice messages in many areas, and automatic dependent surveillance broadcast technologies will be widely employed to broadcast aircraft identity and altitude positioning information, greatly increasing the scope for “self-separation.” This implies the development of new technologies that would support: •4D trajectory management, introducing a new approach to airspace design and management •Collaborative network operations planning •Integrated airport operations, contributing to capacity gains •New separation modes, allowing increased capacity •System-wide information management (SWIM), integrating all ATM business-related data •A shift in the role of controllers from operators to managers Funding The overall cost of SESAR will be around €30 billion, with the deployment phase responsible for most of this. Most of the costs will come from installation of new SESAR-compatible airborne systems—which will cost €15 billion-€20 billion. The total estimated cost of SESAR’s development phase is €2.1 billion, shared equally between the European Union, Eurocontrol and industry—each providing €700 million. The SESAR joint undertaking The founding members of the SESAR joint undertaking are: •Aircraft manufacturers: Airbus, Alenia Aeronautica •Airport operator: SEAC •ANSPs: AENA, DFS, DSNA, ENAV, NATS, NORACON •European bodies: EUROCONTROL, EC •Ground-based technology suppliers: Frequentis, Honeywell, Indra, NATMIG, Selex •Airborne systems manufacturers: Thales, Honeywell Since June 2009 the joint undertaking has been launching, on average, one new research project a day and now has 1,000 employed on SESAR work, rising toward 3,000 in 2011. How the research is being organized The development of appropriate technologies is being researched in the following work packages: •WP 3 Validation Infrastructure Adaptation and Integration involves all ATM stakeholders in looking at the benefits of employing existing expertise, tools and validation platforms for use in the SESAR development phase. •WP 4 En-Route Operations provides and then validates new operational concepts of en-route operations. •WP 5 Terminal Maneuvering Operations provides and then validates new operational concepts of the arrival and departure phases of flight. •WP 6 Airport Operations is developing new collaborative decision-making, safe taxiing and efficient use of runway concepts. •WP 7 Network Operations prepares and supports trajectory-based operations including airspace management and collaborative flight planning. •WP 8 Information Management is developing a European-wide SWIM “Intranet for ATM.” •WP 9 Aircraft Systems is planning the evolution of the aircraft platform to progressively introduce 4D trajectory management functions in large, regional and business aircraft. •WP 10 En-Route and Approach ATC Systems designs, specifies and validates en-route and TMA systems evolution, encompassing trajectory management, separation modes, controller tools, safety nets, airspace management supporting functions and tools, queue management and route optimization features. •WP 11 Flight Operations Centre System develops airspace-users operations systems to support the implementation of SESAR components. •WP 12 Airport Systems outlines R&D activities to define, design, specify and validate airport systems needed to support the SESAR ATM target concept. •WP 13 Network Information Management System (NIMS) is developing a technical strategy for implementing the NIMS, AAMS (Advanced Airspace Man- agement System) and AIMS (Aeronautical Information Management System). •WP 14 SWIM Technical Architecture provides a link between the European Commission-funded work on SWIM concepts and aligning them with SESAR. •WP 15 Non-Avionic CNS System assesses requirements for CNS technologies development/validation and their compatibility with military and general aviation user needs. •WP 16 R&D Transversal Areas defines the improvements needed to adapt the Transversal Area (safety, security, environment, contingency and human performance) management system practices to SESAR. •WP B Target Concept and Architecture Maintenance provides strategic and conceptual guidance for the entire work program, including all operational, technical and SWIM concepts, to ensure the consistent development of SESAR improvements. •WP C Master Plan Maintenance. •WP E: SESAR Long Term and Innovative Research outlines priorities in these two research areas. Timetable The definition phase (2004-2008) has already delivered the ATM master plan defining the content, development and deployment plans of the next genera- tion of ATM systems. The development phase (2008-2013) will produce the required new generation of technological systems, components and operational procedures. The deployment phase (2014-2020) will see the large-scale production and implementation of the new ATM infrastructure.

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The flight control room screens in Maastricht show how complex the pared to that of the U.S.—but there have been Costs,capacity and emissions issues flight patterns are. major improvements in efficiency over the Costs too are increasing. Eurocontrol meas- (Photo copyright Paul past 10 years in Europe. Between 1999 and ures the cost of ATM service performance in Veronique.) 2007, according to the International Air three ways—en-route charges to aircraft oper- Transport Association (IATA), performance ators (€6.5 billion in 2008), delays as a result improvements to the European ATM network of ATM en-route inefficiencies (€0.9 billion) led to a 66% drop in flight delays despite a and the number of extra miles flown by air- 25% increase in traffic, together with a short- craft operators beyond their optimum flight ening of around 4 km, on average, in routes profiles ($2.6 billion in 2008). While charges flown. to airlines have been decreasing since 2004 at But recently these performance gains a rate of 1% a year (though many ANSPs had have stalled. According to the latest Eurocon- to raise their air navigation charges in 2009 trol Performance Review Report for 2008, as a result of traffic declines), the savings have only in the safety domain—where there were been more than canceled out by an increase no ATM-induced accidents that year—has in delays and inefficient routings (called “route there been a marked improvement. extensions” by Eurocontrol). And as aircraft The capacity of the European ATM sys- are flying farther than their optimum route, tem is measured by the number of delays di- their fuel burn and greenhouse-gas-forming rectly attributable to ANSPs. This figure is on emissions are also rising. the rise. In 2008 the number of ATM-related This is particularly worrying as 2008 was delays rose for the fourth consecutive year the year that traffic numbers started to stall— and exceeded the agreed target by 90%. The there were just 0.4% more aircraft flying in target was an average of 1 min delay per flight Europe in 2008 over 2009, so capacity issues due to ATM causes; the actual figure was 1.9 should not have been a major problem for the min per flight. continent’s ANSPs. While most ATC centers

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with a single regulator for airlines and airports. There is no reason to treat ATM differently.”

Hurry up and wait Thus the ATM problems of Europe are only partly technical issues. One of the biggest bot- tlenecks is a chronic lack of runway space at Europe’s busiest runways. “When you look at airports, the biggest challenge will be to increase the capacity of runways,” according to Ky. “In SESAR we are talking about trebling the capacity of the over- have been increasing their capacity, there all system—but I don’t think we will be able to were a number of highly congested centers— treble the capacity of runways. We can signifi- mainly outside the busiest traffic areas—where cantly improve runway capacity by working staffing and systems problems contributed to on wake vortices to have actual separations many of the delays. based on actual occurrences, rather than the- Small improvements in the ATM network oretical occurrences, as today. I think we can can have large impacts. According to an ATM decrease runway occupancy time by having efficiency improvement plan drawn up in Sep- more rapid exits from the runway, and I also tember 2008 by IATA, the Civil Air Naviga- think we can be much better in coordinating tion Services Organization (CANSO) and Eu- arrivals and departures.” rocontrol, a potential reduction of 0.1% in Here is the problem: If three or four distance flown is equivalent to 4 million n.mi. highly congested European airports are con- per year, generating potential savings of €20 straining the capacity of the total European million per year. A 1-min reduction in taxi ATM system, then all SESAR will achieve will times at Europe’s 50 busiest airports, for ex- be to move traffic more swiftly and efficiently ample, would save €120 million annually. between the bottlenecks. Identifying the bot- The short-term measures introduced by tlenecks is a tiny part of the problem—increas- IATA, CANSO and Eurocontrol were aimed at ing capacity by adding new runways may not reducing annual fuel consumption in European be an option, as local and national govern- airspace by 470,000 tonnes, saving an esti- ment planning regulations could prohibit the mated 1.55 million tonnes of CO2 emissions building of new runways without a 10-year per year and trimming their fuel bills by around public inquiry. In which case, the efficiency of €390 million. The plan is seen as having little the whole European ATM system could be overlap with SESAR “and yet is expected to compromised by local government planning achieve nearly 10% of SESAR’s emissions- regulations. reduction target within 18 months,” according The European Commission has recog- to the three organizations. nized that this is a major issue and in 2008 set So is a $30-billion program like SESAR up a “Community Observatory on Airport Ca- really necessary? After all, there are now next- pacity,” which advises the commission what generation technologies available—automatic measures will be needed to improve the ca- dependent surveillance, satellite-based preci- pacity of the overall European airport net- sion landing systems and data-link communi- work. According to the EC, “It will issue non- cations—that provide many of the technical binding opinions, either at the commission’s solutions to the problem of developing new request or on its own initiative, which will capacity, and these are already being imple- serve as a basis for producing guidelines or mented on a state-by-state basis. regulatory instruments. The commission will “The larger the area you cover with a sin- therefore be able to seek its opinion on meth- gle ATM system, the more efficient it is,” ac- ods for assessing airport capacity.…All the cording to Andrew Charlton of Geneva-based member states, Eurocontrol, the SESAR JU ATM consultants Aviation Advocacy. “You [joint undertaking], academia and the commis- only have to look at the relative costs of pro- sion will be represented, as will airports, air- viding ATM services in Europe compared to lines, the local authorities concerned, airport those in the U.S. to see how much more effi- coordinators, environmental groups and peo- cient it is to cover a large area with a single en- ple living or working near airports.” tity. Apart from that, Europe has for many The airport capacity problem has, for the years now treated aviation as a single market moment, dropped out of the limelight as traffic

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has declined in the wake of the global fiscal cri- One simple way of solving the issue sis. For the moment at least, Europe’s airports would be to have U.S. industry teams inte- are not facing an immediate capacity crunch— grated within the SESAR JU and European but this is an ongoing issue that will need to be teams integrated within NextGen. After all, resolved if SESAR is to reach its goals. the SESAR research philosophy is to develop It is also indicative of why the SESAR ar- two parallel technology platforms so perform- chitects have had to take a different approach ance can be measured and compared. to introducing a next-generation technology “We are in process of trying to see how system to that of the U.S. In Europe, agree- we can enlarge the industrial base of SESAR ment in detail on new systems and procedures to see how we can include new companies, has to be reached between all stakeholders— including U.S. companies,” says Ky. “I hope airports, airlines, ANSPs, governments, in- through the negotiation between the FAA and dustry, civil and military authorities and so the commission on reciprocal arrangements on—before programs can be implemented. we’ll be able to make progress in this area.” NextGen is deploying baseline technology and then, if it is successful, rolling out the new sys- Procurement and planning tems nationwide as soon as possible. The one big unknown about the program, “There are pros and cons of doing it the which should become clearer during 2010, is U.S. way and the European way,” says Ky. who will implement the mature technologies “The main benefit of the European approach throughout the continent in the deployment is that we have a system-wide view of what we phase of SESAR. There are a wide number of need and a system-wide consistency. The big options, from the creation of a new, central- paradigm shift in SESAR is that we are devel- oping components which can be shared and distributed between the air and the ground, so SESAR research contract winners it makes sense that we have a system-wide Candidate members Numberofprojects Millionsofeuros view....The drawback to this is that it takes a Airbus 51 €79.4 Alenia 30 32.1 longer time, especially in the implementation Frequentis 30 26.3 of the components. This is where the U.S. ap- Honeywell 24 39.7 proach is better, because when the FAA de- INDRA 99 119.3 NATMIG 29 35.3 cides to implement a new technology such as Selex 64 77.3 ADSB, it goes all the way through to imple- Thales 128 237.3 mentation. We are more R&D and system- Table compiled December 2009.Source:Thales. wide focused than the FAA.”

Compatibility and coordination ized European ATM systems procurement of- Ky acknowledges that the difference in ap- fice to evolving the role of current European proaches could possibly lead to a problem of bodies in order to harmonize technology pro- “desynchronization,” especially where new curement—more or less a planning role. technology programs are led by different op- At the start of 2010 the SESAR program erating priorities. Establishing common data- was keeping to schedule, despite the turbu- link protocols, for example, is complex, be- lent times in the aviation market. Europe’s cause in Europe the new data-link concepts airlines have been pushing for such a pro- have been driven by the challenge of VHF gram for decades—although their priorities congestion, whereas in the U.S. the priorities have changed in recent years from reducing are different. delays to cutting air navigation charges. “The only way to deal with this is to have The next few months and years will be the proper level of coordination between the critical to the program’s success; this is the U.S., Europe and other parts of the world,” time when political details will be worked out Ky says. “The European Commission has on how to implement the new technologies started to negotiate with the FAA a more po- on the ground and in the air. The task is tough litical agreement that will ensure these difficult enough within the European context—but decisions will be supported by the political au- given that most expenditure on new ATM sys- thorities. The new paradigm is called ‘trajec- tems will take place in the cockpit rather than tory based operations,’ and the really difficult on the ground, it may be that integrating issue is to define what ‘trajectory’ means. I SESAR with NextGen and other new ATM would expect those issues to be covered in technology programs emerging around the 2010 and 2011.” world will prove the toughest task of all.

AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 43 OOPlayout0510.qxd:AA Template 4/13/10 11:40 AM Page 2

25 Years Ago, May 1985 range in Australia to test hypersonic reentry. The second May 6 STS 51-B, the17th space shuttle flight and the seventh flight of Challenger, stage is a separable solid-fuel lands at Edwards AFB, Calif., after 111 orbits and seven days in space. On board rocket with an instrumented for its first operational flight is ESA’s Spacelab 3, where astronauts performed nose cone for measuring delicate experiments in materials processing and fluid mechanics during the reentry conditions. Flight, mission. Also on board are two monkeys and 24 rodents for studies of weight- June 3, 1960, p. 746. lessness and its physiological effects. NASA Space Shuttle Launch Archive. May 27 An Office of Naval 50 Years Ago, May 1960 Research (ONR) Aerobee-Hi May 9 The first production model of the one-man Project Mercury spacecraft sounding rocket is launched is successfully launched from NASA’s Wallops Island, Va., facility, for testing of from the White Sands Proving the escape, landing and recovery systems. This unmanned test version of the Ground, N.M., to an altitude spacecraft reaches 2,540 ft when it is parachuted into the Atlantic Ocean and of 135 mi. It carries eight retrieved by a Marine helicopter. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics telescopes for mapping the 1915-60, p. 123. sky by ultraviolet light. ONR scientists expect the analysis May 12 X-15 No. 1, flown by Joseph A. Walker, of the results to provide the reaches a speed of Mach 3.2 and a 78,000-ft altitude Black Knight most complete mapping of the stars before landing at Edwards AFB, Calif. This is the first to date. Flight, June 10, 1960, p. 784. remote launch of the plane, 100 mi. from its carrier “mother” aircraft. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and May 28 The Soviet Union sets a new Astronautics 1915-60, p. 123. flight speed record of 2,910 kph (1,298 mph) over a 1,000-km (62-mi.) May 14 The International Astronautical Federation closed-circuit course for a single-seat and the Florence Guggenheim Foundation announce turbojet aircraft. Flight, July 1, 1960, the founding of the International Academy of Astro- p. 3. nautics. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics and Astronautics Joseph A. Walker 1915-60, p. 123. May 31 NASA chooses the Rocket- dyne Division of North American May 17 Members of Parliament witness an SR-N1 Aviation to develop a 200,000-lb- Saunders-Roe Hovercraft demonstration near London’s Tiros 1 thrust liquid oxygen and liquid hydro- Westminster Bridge, on the River Thames. Flight, gen rocket engine. This engine May 20, 1960, p. 674. becomes the J-2. In upgraded versions, May 19 The recently launched Tiros 1, the world’s five are used to power the second first weather satellite, tracks a tornado storm stage of the Saturn V launch vehicle, system around Wichita Falls, Texas. E. Emme, ed., while a single J-2 powers the third Aeronautics and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 123. stage. The Saturn V later launches the first men to the Moon under Project May 24 The Midas II (missile defense alarm Apollo. E. Emme, ed., Aeronautics system), an Air Force reconnaissance test satel- and Astronautics 1915-60, p. 123. lite designed with infrared 75 Years Ago, May 1935 sensors to detect and May 3 Large-scale Navy air and sea provide an early warning of long-range maneuvers are conducted in the missile launches, is launched by an Atlas-Agena Pacific in Fleet Problem XVI, which launch vehicle. However, it operates for only covers 5 million mi.2. The exercise, two days. When it is fully operational the which lasts until June 10, involves Midas system is designed to give the U.S. 20-37 520 naval aircraft and four aircraft minutes’ warning of an attack. Flight, June 3, carriers, as well as battleships and 1960, p. 746. cruisers that also carry two to four May 24 Britain’s two-stage version of the Black catapult seaplanes each. It is Knight rocket is launched at the Woomera test prompted by Japanese military

44 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 OOPlayout0510.qxd:AA Template 4/13/10 11:41 AM Page 3

An Aerospace Chronology

by Frank H. Winter, Ret. andNational Robert Air van and der Space Linden Museum

buildups and aggression in Asia. One of the May 30 Donald W. Douglas, president problems is to determine whether naval and air of the Institute of the Aeronautical forces based in Hawaii can fend off an enemy Sciences and Douglas Aircraft, delivers attack on the U.S. The Aeroplane, June 12, 1935. the 23rd Wilbur Wright Memorial Lecture before the Royal Aeronautical May 3 A British Aircraft Eagle airplane, baptized Society in London. He discusses the the Costa Esmeralda by the Spanish ambassador to development of civil aviation in England, leaves Hanworth, England, for a 9,000-mi. America from its beginning in 1926, flight to Mexico City. The pilot, 21-year-old Spaniard when the Don Juan Ignacio Pombo, reaches Bathurst, Gambia, Post Office by May 17. On May 20 he makes a 17-hr flight over Eagle handed the the sea to Port Natal, Brazil. This is the eighth successful Atlantic crossing by Gipsy- carrying of powered aircraft. When taking off from Port Natal on May 26 for Mexico City, the mail over to aircraft crashes and is destroyed, but Pombo is unhurt. The Aeroplane, May 29, private oper- 1935, p. 639. ators. The May 18 The world’s largest air- mail revenue plane, the Soviet Union’s ANT-20 and a govern- Maxim Gorki, crashes at an airport ment subsidy near Moscow, killing the crew of allowed the new airlines to grow and 11 and 36 passengers. A small prosper. The Aeroplane, June 5, 1935, single-engine airplane, whose p. 653. pilot is also killed, had been May 31 An 84-lb gyroscopically performing stunts near the Gorki controlled rocket reaches the highest until it hit the bigger plane. The smaller craft is later identified as an I-5 fighter. altitude of any rocket yet built by The ANT-20, designed by A.N. Tupolev, had a 207-ft wingspan, a gross weight of Robert H. Goddard. It lands 5,500 ft 92,594 lb and eight 900-hp engines. An improved version, the ANT-20 bis, flies from the launch tower in the desert later. The Aeroplane, May 22, 1935, p. 610; Air Britain, April 1966, p. 151. near Roswell, N.M., and then digs a May 19 At Etampes, France, Raymond Delmotte wins hole 10 in. deep. E. Goddard and G. the Coupe Deutsch de la Meurthe in his Caudron C, Pendray, eds., The Papers of Robert H. powered by a single 460-hp Renault engine. He Goddard, pp. 921, 1664. covers the 2,000 km (1,242 mi.) at an average speed of 276 mph. France thus becomes a three-time winner of the coveted 100 Years Ago, May 1910 trophy. During the contest a new world’s speed record is broken May 21 Frenchman Jacques de when Maurice Arnoux in his Caudron C flies at 291.5 mph over a Lesseps, piloting his Bleriot XI, Le 100-km (62-mi.) stretch of the course. This breaks the previous Scarabee, makes the second crossing record of 268.235 mph set by Delmotte. The Aeroplane, May 22, of the English Channel. For this 1935, p. 608. achievement de Lesseps wins the May 19 T.E. Lawrence, also known as Aircraftsman London Daily Mail Cup. A. van Shaw when he joined the RAF, dies as the result of a Hoorebeeck, La collision between his motorbike and a pedal bicycle. Conquete de L’Air, World famous as “Lawrence of Arabia,” the scholar- p. 83. soldier-adventurer was a leader of the Arabs who May 25 At rebelled against Turkish rule during WW I. Following the Huffman Prairie war he continued to work toward their independence. outside Dayton, This goal did not succeed and Lawrence, who felt betrayed Ohio, Orville and by the politicians, wrote The Seven Pillars of Wisdom and Wilbur Wright fly Revolt in the Desert. Still in despair that his cause together for the was lost, he first joined the Royal Tank Corps under first (and only) time. the name Ross, then transferred to the RAF as Shaw, A. van Hoorebeeck, a name he legally adopted later. The Aeroplane, La Conquete de May 22, 1935, p. 588. L’Air, p. 83.

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46 AEROSPACE AMERICA/MAY 2010 DEPARTMENT OF MECHANICAL,MATERIALS AND AEROSPACE ENGINEERING DEPARTMENT CHAIR The College of Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Central Florida solicits applications and nominations for the position of Chair of the Department of Mechanical, Materials and Aerospace Engineering. A doctorate in an appropriate engineering discipline or a closely related field is required, as is a distinguished record of scholarship, teaching, research funding, and professional visibility that would warrant an appointment as a tenured full professor. Administrative experience is highly desirable. UCF is located on a beautiful, modern campus in a suburban setting outside Orlando. Enrollment is approximately 53,000 at the 3rd largest university in the U.S. The MMAE Department is home to 30 full-time faculty (including 4 NSF CAREER awardees and several fellows of professional societies), over 1500 undergraduate students, and nearly 200 graduate students. The department’s annual research expenditures exceed $5 million. Opportunities abound for research and partnerships with local high-tech industries, governmental agencies, the military, and other academic and research units at UCF, including UCF’s new College of Medicine. Many departmental faculty have joint appointments with research units such as the Advanced Materials Processing and Analysis Center, the Center for Research and Education in Optics and Lasers, the Institute for Simulation and Training, the Florida Solar Energy Center, and the NanoScience Technology Center. The MMAE Chair will provide leadership and vision that builds on the department’s strengths; identifies promising new programs and initiatives; and encourages innovation, creativity, collaboration, and professional growth for the faculty, staff, and students. Under the Chair’s direction, the department is expected to participate in cutting-edge, multi-disciplinary projects and to contribute substantially to the College’s growing reputation for excellence in research, education, and professional service. Applications must be submitted electronically at: www.jobswithucf.com/applicants/Central?quickFind=74737 and should include a cover letter; a complete CV; a one-page statement on the role of a department chair at a major research university; and a list of at least three references, with addresses, phone numbers, and email addresses. Nominations may be sent to: Dr. Charles H. Reilly Associate Dean for Academic Affairs College of Engineering & Computer Science University of Central Florida P.O. Box 162993 Orlando, Florida 32816-2993 [email protected] Screening of applications will begin July 1, 2010. Applications must be received by October 1, 2010, in order to be considered for this position. The position is expected to be filled January 2011, or as soon thereafter as the right candidate can assume the position. The University of Central Florida is an Equal Opportunity/Affirmative Action employer.

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