Pulse: Navigating the New Normal April 8th Edition For more information please contact [email protected] Dentsu Pulse | Navigating the New Normal A weekly curation of key trends and insights for marketers and brands. “We cannot choose the challenges we face, but we can choose how we respond to them.” –Greek Philosopher, Epictetus It is becoming clear that COVID-19 presents a challenge unprecedented in modern times - disrupting nations, economies and lives in ways not thought possible a few weeks ago. Our ability to respond to this change in productive and constructive ways depends on our ability to sift through the overwhelming torrent of news and information: to understand key dynamics and derive actionable insights that allow us as marketers to adapt in meaningful ways to safeguard and enhance the well-being of our people, our brands and our consumers. It is in that spirit that we developed the Dentsu Pulse: to bring together and curate the most up-to-date information, insights and thinking from across the Dentsu network to help marketers navigate the shifting road ahead. We’ll be with you as we push through the immediate crisis into recovery and, ultimately, a return to growth. Our goal is to publish this report on a weekly basis. A final thought (and silver lining). As you will see from our research in this report, consumers are looking for brands to take an active leadership role in helping them weather this storm. That means, more than ever, brands have an opportunity (dare we say mandate) to not just MARKET AT consumers as transactional buyers of products, but MATTER TO people as individuals and members of communities. As devastating as this crisis is, it offers a unique chance for brands to truly live their purpose. We stand ready to support you in this journey. 2 This Week’s Summary 1. COVID HEADLINES The US confirmed the highest number of confirmed cases across the globe. The most heavily affected states include New York, New Jersey, Michigan, California and Louisiana but all 50 states report infections at this point. With the exception of a few holdouts, social distancing initiatives are now in place across most states. The US government delivers a grim outlook and advises citizens to hunker down as President Trump warns of “painful 2 weeks ahead. Unemployment claims hit a new record high and economic conversations are shifting from a “slower then expected recovery” towards the likelihood of a recession. 2. MEDIA MARKET PLACE TRACKER While digital usage is still shifting, the extreme growth we’ve seen in key areas such as Entertainment, News, Ecomm, has started to level off in the past week; this growth has resulted in opportunity for Digital marketers, decreasing CPM/CPC’s overall. Dentsu performance agency MuteSix provides us a look at how DTC marketers are capitalizing on the moment. As we all know Streaming TV has been exploding during this time, with Netflix and YouTube leading the way; this week will see the entrance of a new competitor: Quibi, a mobile-only, short-form content streaming service (for access to a recent Dentsu-Google proprietary study on Video Streaming behavior, please click through to the extended version of this week’s Media update). Google and Amazon search data gives us a unique view into the new and shifting “homebound” consumer reality. Dentsu Media Investment arm Amplifi outlines three possible scenarios of how the Media marketplace will evolve over the course of 2020, along with in-the-moment advisory and recommendations. 3. DENTSU COVID-19 CRISIS NAVIGATOR The theme of this week’s survey results is “nowhere to run, nowhere to hide.” Respondents previously denying the severity of the outbreak are now experiencing “Initial Shock”, while the majority of US consumers are moving into the “Coming To Grips” phase. Sentiment has turned from ambiguity to negative as no clear end is in sight and the economic impact is spreading. Consumers are increasingly looking for distractions as evidenced in streaming video & entertainment replacing news and social media as the media channel seeing the biggest bump in usage. In this time of uncertainty, consumers’ inclinations is to stick with ”tried & true” brands they trust - although willingness to try new products or brands differs across generations. 3 This Week’s Summary (continued) 4. CULTURAL & CONSUMER TRENDS The COVID-19 crisis has forced society to make vast changes in a very short amount of time. The unprecedented uncertainty has both revealed and exacerbated underlying tensions in American culture, many of which many have a significant impact on consumers’ mental health and wellbeing. This week’s rising trends highlight a selection of those tensions – from American’s unhealthy relationship with productivity to the negative impact of a constant news cycle to how American values of self-reliance and generosity are being redefined. Most importantly, we outline ways in which companies and brands can best respond to consumers’ current experiences amid the crisis and rise to meet new needs. 4. INDUSTRY VERTICALS • Financial Services: Seeing upside as result of trading volatility and credit extensions • Media & Entertainment: Video viewing explodes while networks adjust • Travel & Hospitality: Airlines raise $17B in bank loans and lobby for bail-out while some US hotels are on verge of bankruptcy • Automotive: Sector sees continued decrease in demand as branded searches drop by 11-14% and “dealerships near me” by 25% • Retail: While in-store retails continues to suffer (see report for latest foot traffic trends), eCommerce and grocery demand continues to grow • Luxury & Beauty: Pressure builds as disruption from the pandemic could wipe out the industry’s cumulative sales gains over the past 5 years • High-Tech & B2B: Big tech mobilizes to address COVID-19 while the electronics industry continues to work through supply chain issues • Health & Wellness: Digitally connected work-out providers are succeeding while health insurers re waving COVID-19 treatment costs • CPG: Sales continue to rise, but supply chain concerns as panic buying and stocking-up continues • Restaurants: The trauma experienced by restaurants is starting to ripple through the supply chain, affecting farmers, distributors and food banks • Insurance: Insurers warn of legislative repercussions as congress discusses insurance pay-outs and considering Pandemic Insurance Act • Non-Profit: Decline in donations while food banks are coping with unprecedented demand 4 1. This Week’s Data ​and Headlines​ 2. Dentsu Media Marketplace Tracker​ Contents 3. Dentsu COVID-19 Crisis Navigator​ 4. Cultural and Consumer Behavior ​Trends and Insights​ 5. Insights and Implications by Industry Vertical This Week’s Data and Headlines April 8th Edition Spread Trend: Global and US (as of 4/8/20) Total Cases (Millions) 1.6 1.4 1.44 1.35 1.2 1.27 1.20 1.0 1.12 1.02 0.8 0.94 0.86 0.6 0.78 0.66 0.72 0.4 0.40 0.2 0.31 0.34 0.37 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.28 - 29-Mar 30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr World USA Total Deaths (000s) 90 80 83.41 70 74.77 69.43 60 64.69 50 58.89 53.18 40 47.20 42.31 30 37.77 30.86 34.07 20 10 2.22 2.58 3.14 4.05 5.10 6.08 7.12 8.45 9.62 10.94 12.86 Source: New - York Times, Worldometers, John Hopkins 29-Mar 30-Mar 31-Mar 1-Apr 2-Apr 3-Apr 4-Apr 5-Apr 6-Apr 7-Apr 8-Apr © 2020 Dentsu Aegis Network 7 World USA Global and US Snapshot (as of 4/7/20) Global USA Confirmed Cases Deaths Recoveries Confirmed Cases Deaths Recoveries (+7%) (+12%) (+8%) (+9%) (+18%) (+10%) 1,447,893 83,412 309,183 400,549 12,857 21,711 China Confirmed Cases Deaths Recoveries % Change % Change (+0.1%) (+0.1%) (+0.1%) State Cases from Deaths from Yesterday Yesterday New York 142,384 8% 5,489 15% 81,802 3,333 77,279 New Jersey 44,416 8% 1,232 23% Michigan 18,970 10% 845 16% Italy California 17,620 8% 450 17% Louisiana 16,284 10% 582 14% Confirmed Cases Deaths Recoveries (+3%) (+4%) (+5%) Massachusetts 15,202 10% 356 37% Pennsylvania 14,945 14% 250 40% Florida 14,747 8% 296 17% 135,586 17,127 24,392 Illinois 13,549 10% 380 24% Georgia 9,156 21% 348 18% Source: New York Times, Worldometers, John Hopkins © 2020 Dentsu Aegis Network 8 Weekly Snapshot: Global and US (as of April 7th) North America Europe The US recorded the In Europe, Italy, Spain, France and highest number Germany are the most affected countries of confirmed cases with 2.2K, 3K, 1.6K, and 1.3K cases per across the globe. million people, respectively. Spain recently Top affected states overtook Italy in having the highest in US include New number of confirmed cases amongst York, New Jersey, European countries. Michigan, Louisiana, and California. Asia China being the origin of the pandemic has the highest number of cases in Asia. Other worst-hit countries in Asia include Malaysia and South Korea with 4K and 10K confirmed cases, respectively. South America Amongst South American countries MEA Australia Brazil, Ecuador, Chile, and Peru are the Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia are the most most affected. affected countries in Middle East. Although the Australia recorded around 5K confirmed whole African continent is affected, the number cases until now with 232.2 cases per million of confirmed cases is very low but is increasing people.