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The Obama Moment. European and American Perspectives

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The Obama Moment. European and American Perspectives and Edited Marcin The election of Barack Obama has raised major expectations in Europe and opened up new by European Álvaro opportunities for dealing with global challenges – a task made more daunting by the current Zaborowski Union economic crisis. Authored by leading experts from both sides of the Atlantic, this book Institute for provides an authoritative analysis of the most topical issues facing the European Union de Security Studies and the United States’ agendas of today. The volume addresses some global questions – Vasconcelos multilateralism, engaging with China and India, the economy, disarmament and climate change – as well as key regional issues, including Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Russia, Africa and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The book concludes that it is imperative that Europeans and Americans seize ‘the Obama moment’ in order to capitalise on the urgency of acting now. They will also need to move to a new paradigm of the EU-US relationship and NATO’s role within it – one that takes account of the fact that the West needs ‘the Rest’ to deal with the most pressing issues of our time. ‘This book is an important contribution to the debate on how we can renew our Transatlantic Partnership for a The new age. As we grapple with pressing global problems … it is vital that Europeans and Americans continue to pull in the same direction. This book lays out the challenges and choices we face. It deserves to be widely read.’ Obama Javier Solana, High Representative for the EU Common Foreign and Security Policy ‘A timely contribution to the much-needed dialogue regarding transatlantic relations. Both sides need to understand each other better and this volume helps its readers understand the causes of discord and the key issues to be addressed.’ Moment Zbigniew Brzezinski, Former National Security Advisor to President Carter ‘The EUISS Transatlantic Book 2009 is a valuable contribution on a crucially important and most timely subject. Altogether, it does much to facilitate US-European cooperative efforts in very constructive ways.’ David A. Hamburg, President Emeritus, Carnegie Corporation of New York. Contributors James F. Dobbins Ibrahim Kalin Pawel Świeboda The Obama Alexandra Bell Nikolas Foster Andrew C. Kuchins Álvaro de Vasconcelos John Bruton Daniel S. Hamilton Michael O’ Hanlon Alex Vines Tom Cargill Bruce Jones Rouzbeh Parsi Marcin Zaborowski Joseph Cirincione Erik Jones Glen Rangwala Institute European Moment published by the EU Institute for Security Studies for European and American perspectives 43 avenue du Président Wilson Security F-75775 Paris cedex 16 ISBN 978-92-9198-160-1 phone: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 30 Union Edited by Álvaro de Vasconcelos Studies QN-80-09-940-EN-C fax: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 31 and Marcin Zaborowski e-mail: [email protected] www.iss.europa.eu € 12 Chaillot Papers 118 Oct 09 Global security in a multipolar world Feng Zhongping, Robert Hutchings, Radha Kumar, Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Paulo Wrobel and Andrei Zagorski; edited by Luis Peral with an introduction by Álvaro de Vasconcelos 117 Jul 09 EU security and defence. Core documents 2008 Volume IX, compiled by Catherine Glière (also published in French) 116 Jun 09 War crimes, conditionality and EU integration in the Western Balkans In January 2002 the Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) became an autonomous Judy Batt, Vojin Dimitrijevic, Florence Hartmann, Dejan Jovic, Tija Memisevic Paris-based agency of the European Union. Following an EU Council Joint Action of 20 and Jelena Obradovic-Wochnik; edited by Judy Batt and Jelena Obradovic-Wochnik July 2001, modified by the Joint Action of 21 December 2006, it is now an integral part 115 Avr 09 Maghreb : vaincre la peur de la démocratie of the new structures that will support the further development of the CFSP/ESDP. The Luís Martinez Institute’s core mission is to provide analyses and recommendations that can be of use and relevance to the formulation of the European security and defence policy. In 114 Dec 08 Negotiating the final status of Kosovo carrying out that mission, it also acts as an interface between European experts and Marc Weller decision-makers at all levels. 113 Nov 08 Towards a European Defence Market Erkki Aalto, Daniel Keohane, Christian Mölling and Sophie de Vaucorbeil; edited by Daniel Keohane 112 Oct 08 EU security and defence. Core documents 2007 Volume VIII, compiled by Catherine Glière (also published in French) 111 Sep 08 Bush’s legacy and America’s next foreign policy Marcin Zaborowski 110 Aug 08 Rethinking Iran: From confrontation to cooperation Christoph Bertram 109 May 08 Partnerships for effective multilateralism: EU relations with Brazil, China, India and Russia Ummu Salma Bava, Feng Zhongping, Sabine Fischer, Marco Aurélio Garcia, François Godement, Giovanni Grevi, Dimtri Trenin, Alfredo Valladão, Álvaro de Vasconcelos and Christian Wagner; edited by Giovanni Grevi and Álvaro de Vasconcelos Books 2009 European Security and Defence Policy The first 10 years (1999-2009) edited by Giovanni Grevi, Damien Helly and Daniel Keohane The European Union Institute for Security Studies . Paris 2009 What ambitions for European Defence in 2020? Director: Álvaro de Vasconcelos Claude-France Arnould, Juha Auvinen, Henri Bentégeat, Nicole Gnesotto, Copyright for front cover photograph: REETZ/STAR PRESS/SIPA Jolyon Howorth, F. Stephen Larrabee, Tomas Ries, Jacek Saryusz-Wolski, Stefano Silvestri, Alexander Stubb, Nuno Severiano Teixeira, Álvaro de © EU Institute for Security Studies 2009. All rights reserved. No part of this publication Vasconcelos, Alexander Weis and Richard Wright; edited by Álvaro de may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any Vasconcelos; preface by Javier Solana means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise without the prior permission of the EU Institute for Security Studies. 2006 The New Global Puzzle. What World for the EU in 2025? directed by Nicole Gnesotto and Giovanni Grevi Published by the EU Institute for Security Studies and printed in Condé-sur-Noireau (France) by Corlet Imprimeur, Graphic design by Metropolis (Lisboa) All Occasional Papers can be accessed via the institute’s website: www.iss.europa.eu The Obama Moment European and American perspectives Alexandra Bell, John Bruton, Tom Cargill, Joseph Cirincione, James Dobbins, Nikolas Foster, Daniel Hamilton, Michael O’ Hanlon, Bruce Jones, Erik Jones, Ibrahim Kalin, Andrew Kuchins, Rouzbeh Parsi, Glen Rangwala, Pawel Świeboda, Álvaro de Vasconcelos, Alex Vines and Marcin Zaborowski Edited by Álvaro de Vasconcelos and Marcin Zaborowski Institute for Security Studies European Union 43 avenue du Président Wilson 75775 Paris cedex 16 tel.: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 30 fax: +33 (0)1 56 89 19 31 e-mail: [email protected] www.iss.europa.eu ISBN 978-92-9198-160-1 Director: Álvaro de Vasconcelos QN-80-09-940-EN-C Acknowledgements The editors would like to thank all of the authors who contributed to this volume. We also gratefully acknowledge SG/HR Javier Solana, Dr. Zbigniew Brzezinski and Dr. David A. Hamburg for their endorsements of the book. We would also like to thank Gearóid Cronin, EUISS publications editor, for all his work, Anna Kalista, Assistant to EUISS Research Fellows, for constantly liaising with the con- tributors, and Noelle Tomas for the formatting of the text. Contents Introduction – Responding to the Obama moment: the EU and the US in a multipolar world 11 Álvaro de Vasconcelos The Obama-EU agenda 14 Priority areas for Euro-American joint action 16 Revisiting the transatlantic paradigm 21 Pa r t o n e – Ch a n g e i n t h e US a n d t r a n S a t l a n t i C r e l a t i o n S 25 1. EU-US transatlantic relations: the Obama moment 27 John Bruton Introduction 27 Obama’s new agenda 28 Obama versus Bush: continuity as well as change 30 Constraints in the conduct of US foreign policy 32 Constraints facing Europe as a foreign policy actor 34 Conclusion 36 2. The Obama administration and Europe 39 Daniel Hamilton and Nikolas Foster Introduction 39 A new paradigm for the transatlantic partnership 40 Seven challenges 42 Conclusion 56 Pa r t t w o – wh a t d o w e d o ? 59 Global questions 61 3. The coming clash? Europe and US multilateralism under Obama 63 Bruce Jones 5 Introduction 63 Background: the transatlantic relationship in the post-Cold War and post-9/11 eras 64 Obama’s multilateralism 69 Pathways ahead 75 Conclusion 77 4. Transatlantic economic relations 79 Erik Jones Introduction 79 Macroeconomic imbalances 80 Emerging markets 82 Global financial integration 84 Trade and development 87 Globalisation 89 The new transatlantic economic relationship 90 5. Prague and the transformation of American nuclear policy 91 Joseph Cirincione and Alexandra Bell Introduction 91 Today’s threats 92 Arms control as the new realism 94 What is behind the shift? 95 Implementation 98 Effect on the 2010 NPT 100 European cooperation 101 Sources of discord 107 Conclusion 108 6. Climate policy: the quest for leadership 111 Paweł Świeboda Introduction 111 The EU on the offensive 112 6 Domestic progress key to US leadership 114 China moving to centre stage 115 Prospect of trade wars 116 Development and transfer of low carbon technology 118 Technological rivalry 119 Searching for a multilateral solution: the risk of a low common denominator 119 How meaningful would the eventual agreement be? 122 Regional questions 125 7. From drawdown to partnership: Iraq after the American exit 127 Glen Rangwala Introduction 127 Challenges from within 128 Flashpoints 132 Iraq in a multilateral environment 134 8. Obama’s Af/Pak strategy 139 James Dobbins The Obama policy review 139 Complex strategy, weak machinery 142 Nation building on the cheap 142 The institutional legacy 144 Promoting unity of effort 147 Looking for an exit strategy 150 9.
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