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The Role of Tidal Lagoons

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THE ROLE OF TIDAL LAGOONS FINAL REPORT CHARLES HENDRY DECEMBER 2016 Contents Foreword ............................................................................................................................... 1 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 5 PART ONE ......................................................................................................................... 10 2. What are Tidal Lagoons? ............................................................................................ 10 2.1. Technology Overview ........................................................................................... 10 2.2. Characteristics of sites suitable for tidal lagoons ................................................... 11 2.3. History of Tidal Power ........................................................................................... 13 2.4. The opportunity in the UK ..................................................................................... 15 2.5. Tidal lagoon projects under development in the UK .............................................. 17 2.6. Other Tidal Range Projects in the UK ................................................................... 19 3. What role might Tidal lagoons play? ............................................................................ 21 3.1 Energy Policy ........................................................................................................ 21 3.2. Security of supply ................................................................................................. 22 3.3. Decarbonisation targets ........................................................................................ 26 3.4. Impacts on the environment and other uses of the waters .................................... 29 3.5. Hybrid Infrastructure ............................................................................................. 33 3.5.1 Coastal and Flood Protection ..................................................................... 33 3.5.2 Regeneration benefits ................................................................................ 36 4. Supply chain ................................................................................................................ 38 4.1. Jobs ...................................................................................................................... 39 4.2. Skills and Education .............................................................................................. 44 4.3. Collaboration ......................................................................................................... 45 4.4. Benefits to supply chain companies and other sectors .......................................... 47 4.5. Other benefits ....................................................................................................... 50 4.6. Innovation and Cost Reduction in Tidal Range technologies ................................. 52 4.7. Caissons ............................................................................................................... 53 4.8. Supply chain conclusions ...................................................................................... 55 5. Export Opportunities .................................................................................................... 58 5.1. Canada ................................................................................................................. 58 5.2. France .................................................................................................................. 60 5.3. Mexico .................................................................................................................. 60 5.4. India ...................................................................................................................... 60 5.5. China .................................................................................................................... 61 3 5.6. Export Opportunities – Conclusions ...................................................................... 62 6. Generation Costs and the potential for cost reduction ................................................. 64 6.1. Site location and design ........................................................................................ 64 6.2. Project costs ......................................................................................................... 68 6.3. Financing costs and the cost of capital.................................................................. 70 6.4. Conclusions on generation costs and the potential for cost reduction ................... 73 7. Subsidy costs and other considerations ...................................................................... 74 7.1. CFD costs for tidal lagoons ................................................................................... 78 7.2. CFD Equivalent measure of subsidy costs ............................................................ 79 7.3. CFD cost per MWh over project lifetime ................................................................ 83 7.4. Conclusions .......................................................................................................... 85 7.5. Other considerations ............................................................................................. 85 8. Conclusion: The Strategic Case for a Tidal Lagoon Programme ................................ 89 PART TWO ......................................................................................................................... 91 9. First of a Kind Project .................................................................................................. 91 10. The relationship between the pathfinder project and a programme.................... 94 11. Future Programme ............................................................................................ 97 11.1. Competition........................................................................................................... 98 11.1.1. When to move to a competitive structure .................................................... 98 11.1.2. Approach to delivering competition ............................................................. 99 11.2. National Policy Statement ................................................................................... 103 11.3. Tidal Power Authority .......................................................................................... 107 11.4. Government Structures ....................................................................................... 111 12. Financing Structures ....................................................................................... 113 12.1. A range of possible structures for financing tidal lagoons .................................... 114 12.2. Illustrative options for financing structures .......................................................... 114 12.3. CFD model ......................................................................................................... 117 12.4. Regulatory model ................................................................................................ 119 12.5. Concession model .............................................................................................. 121 12.6. Procurement model ............................................................................................. 121 12.7. Various pathways for tidal lagoons ...................................................................... 122 12.8. Conclusions ........................................................................................................ 124 12.9. Sources of finance .............................................................................................. 125 13. Decommissioning ............................................................................................ 127 14. Summary of conclusions and recommendations.............................................. 130 Annexes ............................................................................................................................ 150 4 A. Terms of Reference of the Government Review on Tidal Lagoons ..................... 150 B. Call for Evidence ................................................................................................. 151 C. Technical Advisers to the Review ....................................................................... 153 D. List of respondents to the call for evidence ......................................................... 154 E. Supply chain facts and figures ............................................................................ 158 F. Excerpts from written evidence, particularly relating to impacts on the environment and other uses of the waters ......................................................................................... 163 G. Habitats and Birds Directives and Adaptive Environmental Management ........... 169 H. Energy system modelling .................................................................................... 171 I. Assumptions overview ........................................................................................ 174 5 Foreword I am pleased to conclude my review into tidal lagoons and to submit this report to Greg Clark, the Secretary of State for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy. In this Foreword
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