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Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Climate Update Seasonal Rainfall and NDVI, 7Th February 2011 Deyr 2010

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Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Climate Update Seasonal Rainfall and NDVI, 7Th February 2011 Deyr 2010 Seasonal Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia Climate Update Seasonal Rainfall and NDVI, 7th February 2011 Deyr 2010 This seasonal climate update, a joint effort of FSNAU, MARS-JRC, FEWS NET and SWALIM, is produced after every seasonal assessment (Gu and Deyr), to provide an overall view of the seasonal performance.The data and analyses in this publication are based on remote sensing (RFE and NDVI) and complimented by rain gauge data collected by SWALIM Highlights Map 1: Dec 2010 NDVI Difference from Long Term Mean Rainfall The Deyr season (October – December) was extremely dry in most parts of Somalia, leading to the lowest crop production in south and central Somalia since 1995. The dry conditions have also exacerbated the situation of pastoralists living in many areas. Observed rainfall indicates critically low recordings in most of the rainfall stations in the south and central parts of the country during the entire season. However, a few areas in the northern parts such as Borama, Qualenjeed, Elafweyn, Erigabo and Iskushuban stations recorded normal to above normal rainfall during the same period. The satellite rainfall estimate (RFE) imagery also confirms this with the Northwestern Somalia showing normal to above normal rains during this period and in particular, Awdal and Galbeed regions. In the Northeast, however, the rains were below normal in most parts except in the Hawd livelihood zone of Nugal as well as parts of Iskushuban and Alula districts. The RFE also indicate critically low rains in most parts of central and southern Somalia Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) Following the poor Deyr rainfall performance, the rangeland condition (water, pasture and browse) remains significantly poor in the Southern, Central and most parts of Northeast region. Compared to a long term mean, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) confirmed Data Sources by field reports indicate that, vegetation condition between October and December in key pastoral areas of the South Maps and graphs in this bulletin are produced from three sources: is in its worst condition in the last ten years (Map 1). This • Current Rainfall Estimates and NDVI data are derived from NOAA AVHRR and scenario prompted abnormal migration of livestock into SPOT VEGETATION, while the rain gauge data is collected by FAO-SWALIM • The seasonal profiles and long term trends on page 2 are produced in collaboration the Shabelle and Juba riverine areas as well as pockets of with MARS-JRC are utilise a combination of FAO-Africover and FAO-SWALIM land Bay, Mudug and Nugal regions where rains were relatively cover classes to derive RFE and NDVI summaries. For more information visit http:// better with improved pasture conditions . Field reports mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mars/About-us/FOODSEC also indicate slightly better pasture conditions in the most parts of Awdal and Galbeed regions in the Northwest and Alula district in Northeast. Technical and Managerial Support Funding Agencies Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia (FSNAU), P.O. Box 1230, Nairobi, Kenya. Tel: +254 722 - 202 146/ 733 - 616 881/ 20 4000500, Email: [email protected], Website: www.fsnau.org Seasonal Rainfall and NDVI Cummulative Rainfall Cummulative Rain Gauge Estimates (mm) (Oct-Dec) Data (mm) (Oct-Dec) Togdheer Pastoral (Savannah) Saanag Pastoral (Savannah) Source: NOAA Source: FAO-SWALIM Gedo Pastoral (Open Shrubs) Galgadud Pastoral (Herbaceous) Nugal Pastoral (Savannah) Hiran Agropastoral (Rainfed) Middle Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Lower Shabelle Riverine (Irrigated) Lower Shabelle Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bay Agropastoral (Rainfed) Bakool Agropastoral (Rainfed) 2 Long term rainfall and NDVI trends for selected districts Agricultural Areas Agriculture Generally the 2010/11 Deyr season was extremely poor with negative implications for the crop sector. Cereal production is significantly reduced in riverine areas of southern regions while there is total crop failure in the agro pastoral livelihoods of south and central Somalia. Preliminary finding indicate theDeyr 2010/11 yielded the lowest cereal production since Deyr 1995 (19% of Deyr Post War Average). In the Northwest however, the combination of the Hays rains compounded with the good Karan rains resulted in above normal cereal production especially in agropastoral areas of Northwest (Awdal, W.Galbeed and Togdheer) Source: SWALIM/Africover Selected districts with good crop production Hargeisa Agropastoral Borama Agropastoral (Irrigated) Selected districts with poor crop production Jamame Riverine Afmadow Agropastoral Buloburti Agropastoral Aden Yabal Agropastoral Taleh Pastoral (Savannah) 3 Long term rainfall and NDVI trends for selected districts Pastoral Areas Pasture Pasture conditions are generally very poor throughout Somalia with the exception of some regions of the Northwest such as Galbeed and Awdal regions as well as in Alula district in Northeast. In the southern regions, pockets in the agro pastoral areas of Bay, and Shabelle as well as the riverine areas of Juba and Shabelle yielded average pasture. As a result, abnormal livestock migration have been experienced into these areas. Livestock body conditions have also deteriorated with livestock deaths reported in areas where poor rains were experienced. Source: FAO-Africover Selected districts with good pasture conductions Afmadow Savannah Alula Open shrubs Borama Herbaceous Hargeisa Selected districts with poor pasture conditions Hudun Savannah Brutinle Herbaceous Taleh Pastoral (Savannah) For more information visit http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/adds/ and http://www.fsausomali.org/fileadmin/uploads/1308.pdf 4.
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