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Energy News Monitor June 23, 2017, Volume XIV, Issue 2 Energy News Monitor SUPPLY DRIVING DEMAND: SAYS LAW IN ACTION? Monthly Gas News Commentary: May - June 2017 India outlook for the industry. The demand from investors has been so strong that Indraprastha Gas Ltd, which supplies here is optimism on demand for gas that is driving to homes and vehicles in New Delhi, raised the cap on imports but pessimism on production of domestic T foreign ownership to 30 percent from 24 percent, and gas. H-Energy, the Mumbai-based oil and gas arm of may increase it again to almost half. India’s largest city gas Hiranandani Group plans to invest more than ₹ 45 billion distributor Gujarat Gas Ltd, where Aberdeen Asset in the natural gas sector in five years to develop LNG re- Management Plc is the biggest non-state investor, and gasification units on the west and east coast of India along Mahanagar Gas Ltd. have also seen an increase in with pipeline infrastructure. H-Energy is at an advanced offshore holdings. India’s gas demand is about a fifth of stage of setting up an LNG re-gasification unit at Jaigarh China’s due to weak domestic supply and poor port in Maharashtra. As part of its phase-1 plan, the infrastructure, though the government is trying to change company in 2017 signed an agreement with France-based this. Measures have been stepped up to improve air energy company Engie to charter a FSRU. After phase- 1 quality in cities by giving priority to distributors such as of the project stabilises, the company will be setting-up a Indraprastha Gas for accessing cheaper local gas. land based re-gasification plant with an annual capacity of Offshore holdings in Indraprastha Gas climbed to nearly 8 mtpa. Also, the company has already started work on 25 percent as of March 31, from about 21 percent a year Jaigarh to Dabhol tie-in pipeline which will carry natural ago, according to data. Aberdeen Asset Management held gas to the gas grid of GAIL (India) Ltd at Dabhol. The about 4.6 percent of outstanding shares in Gujarat Gas as company has also approached PNGRB, for laying a 700 of end-April. Foreign holdings in the company have km pipeline to connect the East coast FSRU to major climbed about 3 percentage points to 15.4 percent in the demand centres in West Bengal. past year. Mahanagar Gas, which sells the fuel in the Fidelity Investments and Morgan Stanley Investment financial capital Mumbai and its suburbs, has seen stock Management have increased exposure to Indian city-gas in the hands of foreign investors increase nearly six times retailers, as the emphasis on clean fuels burnishes the since listing last year. India’s government wants more QUICK FACT Solar power today has a share of about 18% to the total renewable power installed capacity while in terms of the electricity generation the share is about 12% urban households to use natural gas and LPG for rural down the value of its investment in Dabhol power plant. users. The company has taken up synchronised development of seven city gas distribution network projects at Varanasi, The supply side does not share the optimism of the Patna, Jamshedpur, Kolkata, Ranchi, Bhubaneswar and demand side. ONGC has said that producing natural gas Cuttack. The first LNG terminal at the east coast is also is no longer a profitable business for the company as the coming up in Dhamra in Odisha under a joint venture of government-mandated gas price is significantly below the public and private sector companies. cost of production. The oil major has sought a review of pricing formula from the government. ONGC wants a The oil ministry has formed all-powerful review floor or minimum price of natural gas be fixed at committees to monitor performance of ONGC and OIL, $4.2/mmBtu for the business to be viable. With the and will have power to relinquish any oil and gas field for current price, it does not make economic or commercial auctioning to private firms. Being dubbed as super- sense for any company to invest in new fields or in boards, the committees will be headed by the ministry’s augmenting production from existing ones. Fresh upstream nodal authority DGH, and will review and investment in unlikely if the price remains below the cost monitor performance of areas given to ONGC and OIL of production. In October 2014, the government adopted on nomination basis. The two panels, one each for a new pricing formula using rates prevalent in gas surplus ONGC and OIL, will review from annual work nations like the US and Canada to determine rates in a programme and budget to declaration of a discovery as net importing country. Prices have halved to commercial as also reservoir and production $2.48/mmBtu since the formula was implemented. India performance, monitoring of development activities and imports half its natural gas needs and the government is collaborations with other explorers. The order follows keen to cut import bill by raising indigenous production ministry’s unhappiness with state explorers particularly and ‘Make in India’. The price paid to domestic producers on delays in projects linked to output enhancement. It has is less than half of the rate paid for import of gas. ONGC already ordered a detailed review of board of directors of produces 80 percent of the 70 mmscmd which makes it ONGC for a possible revamp of the functional heads. the biggest gas producer in India. ONGC lost ₹ 50.1 ONGC produced 86 percent of its 26.13 MT of crude oil billion in revenue on natural gas business, and about ₹ 30 in 2016-17 fiscal from fields given to it on nomination billion in profit in just last one year. basis. Natural gas production from nomination fields accounted for 93 percent of the total output of 25.34 bcm. GAIL said it has drawn up investment plans of ₹ 300 The review committee will meet at least once every three billion for expansion. GAIL is currently executing gas months. Field development plans, feasibility reports of pipelines worth ₹ 200 billion and another ₹ 100 billion commercial discoveries in nomination fields and worth of lines are under various stages of evaluation. The monitoring of development activities for early pipelines under execution include Jagdishpur-Haldia line monetisation will also fall within the ambit of the that will take the environment friendly fuel to the east. committees. The visible hand of government Current projects will be completed by 2019-20, taking commanding and controlling the oil sector is unlikely to GAILs pipeline network to 15,000 km from the current produce more oil than what the invisible hand of the ₹ 11,000 km. The company has already spent capex of market can produce. Even if the invisible hand favours 21.8 billion in FY17 and plans to spend ₹ 42.6 billion in production, nature’s visible hand that dealt India its FY18 and ₹ 77.04 billion in FY19 towards setting up of meagre hydrocarbon has set limits on what can be pipelines, petrochemical and process plants. GAIL will produced. get charge of the LNG block, while state-owned power The ongoing rupee surge coupled with continuing price producer NTPC Ltd would be the largest shareholder in reductions of gas will push fuel cost down by around 5 the power block. The company reported 69 percent drop percent, which in turn will lower the gross margins of in fourth quarter net profit of ₹2.6 billion as it wrote upstream oil and gas players and deter fresh investment Rest of the World into the sector, Ind-Ra said. For the fifth consecutive Asian spot LNG prices edged lower as the early restart of time since implementation of the domestic gas pricing Chevron's Gorgon production facility in Australia formula in November 2014, the government in March weighed on sentiment, projects offered supply and lowered domestic gas prices by 0.8 percent to demand from Japan stayed weak. Spot prices for July $2.48/mmBtu. The price will be in force from April 1 to delivery LNG-AS were assessed at $5.40/mmBtu down September 30, 2017. The price ceiling for gas produced 5 cents from earlier. The early restart of Gorgon's first from discoveries in deep-water, ultra-deep water and high production line provided an unexpected boost to Asian pressure-high temperature areas for the period April- supplies after operator Chevron initially estimated the September 2017 is $ 5.56/mmBtu on gross calorific value outage would last until mid-June. Project stakeholder basis, while the domestic prices has been lowered to Exxon Mobil launched a tender to sell one cargo for $2.48/mmBtu on gross calorific value basis for this delivery in the second half of June days before news of period. However, it will marginally benefit the midstream the facility's restart was made public. The various supply entities like GAIL, which will see its trading revenue fall tenders from Angola, Nigeria and Australia, which ₹ by 2.5 billion from domestic sales during in 1H of FY18. offered June-loading cargoes, came amid muted summer But since GAIL sells its domestic gases on a cost-plus demand from north Asian buyers. Any downside to Asia basis, its gross margins will be protected. GAIL will open spot prices could be capped by relatively firm European a new energy route for India early next year by beginning demand, including in Spain, traders said. Results from the regular imports of shale gas from the US, adding to New Nigerian and Angolan sell tender are expected to emerge Delhi's bargaining power with its predominantly West in the coming days, but Asian LNG market participants Asian suppliers.
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