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Crude Oil Import of India from Its Major Oil Trade Partner Countries: an Empirical Evidence Using Panel Data Analysis

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Crude Oil Import of India from Its Major Oil Trade Partner Countries: an Empirical Evidence Using Panel Data Analysis International Journal of Advanced Research and Development International Journal of Advanced Research and Development ISSN: 2455-4030 Impact Factor: RJIF 5.24 www.advancedjournal.com Volume 2; Issue 6; November 2017; Page No. 726-735 Crude oil import of India from its major oil trade partner countries: An empirical evidence using panel data analysis * Narendra N Dalei, Hiranmoy Roy, Anshuman Gupta Dept. of Economics, School of Business, University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Kandoli Campus, Dehradun, Uttarakhand, India Abstract Considering United Arab Emirates, Nigeria, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Malaysia, Mexico, Qatar, Brazil for the time period 2000 to 2014 as the major crude oil trading partner of India effort has been made in this study to estimate crude oil import function of India using identified macroeconomic factors viz. GDP per capita, crude oil consumption and production and FDI of respective countries. Using fixed effect model of panel data analysis in terms of pooled OLS using country specific dummy and their interaction with macroeconomic factors, allowing intercept and slope coefficient to vary across countries we estimated the crude oil import function for India. Our findings show that UAE remained relatively most preferred nation than Saudi, Iraq, Iran and Malaysia for India in terms of import of crude oil; controlling all other factors except GDP per capita. UAE remained relatively and significantly least preferred nation for India than Nigeria, Iran, Mexico, and Venezuela to import crude oil. GDP per capita play important role in predicting crude oil import of India with UAE being relatively most preferred nation than Venezuela, and Kuwait other things remaining constant. We suggest that macroeconomic planners, policy makers, and crude oil import companies need to take judicious decisions in implementing oil import policies and import of crude oil from these major import partner of India. Keywords: crude oil, GDP per capita, FDI, trade, panel data 1. Introduction of crude oil during 2016-17. Indian’s real GDP has been Crude oil is regarded as the most critical energy source growing by 5-10% per year. Oil consumption is strongly globally. Aviation and motor gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, jet linked to economic growth. Petroleum has no large scale fuel, distillate fuel oil, residual fuel oil, liquefied petroleum substitute, so as countries improve and install more wide- gas, lubricants, paraffin wax, petroleum coke, asphalt and ranging transportation systems, oil demand increases. Since other products are obtained from the processing of crude oil. 2005, India has been responsible for 20 per cent of Furthermore, these byproducts are used as feedstock for the incremental global oil demand increase. India imports the manufacture of petrochemicals such as plastics, polystyrene, great bulk of its crude oil, and 65% which come from the polyethylene, and many other products that are used in our Middle East. daily lives. Crude oil hence forms the basis for a whole The Indian economy is at a serious stage of expansion. During spectrum of industries ranging from automobiles to 2014-15, the growth rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at pharmaceuticals. The price movements in crude oil therefore constant prices is estimated to have increased by 7.3 per cent. directly affect the prices of lubricants, petrochemicals, The revival in growth of the industrial sector and softening of fertilizers, paints, transportation costs, and have a direct international prices of crude oil led to increase in demand for bearing on our economy. As a result, oil prices and their petroleum products by 4.15% during April-March, 2014-15 volatility have substantial impact on exchange rate, industrial over the same period last year. The crude oil production for production, and the economy. Additionally, exchange rate also the year 2014-15 is decreasing of about 0.87% against last impacts the oil prices especially for oil exporting and year. Oil imports during August, 2015 was 42.59 per cent importing nation. lower than oil imports conforming period last year. Oil Therefore, global crude oil production and consumption gap imports during April-August, 2015-16 were esteemed at USD continue rising day by day. In India crude oil consumption 41502.37 million which was 38.79 per cent lower than the oil also increasing but production of crude is very less i.e. India is imports of USD 67805.81 million in the agreeing period last depending on its import partner countries for crude oil. All year. most all the countries depend on crude oil. This is why prices So Indian economy depends on its GDP which depends on of oil matter to almost every economy. The crude oil price of crude oil price, so crude price is most important while India the Indian basket was around USD108 per barrel during late import from different countries are concerned and those May 2014. The same price stood around 56 per cent lower, at countries economy also depend on crude oil price, production, around USD 48 per barrel just after three years. India’s import and export. So far as India crude oil import from dependence on crude oil import has been rising continuously. different countries is concerned, 80% crude oil is imported by India imported around 82.1 per cent of its total consumption India and only 20% crude oil is domestically produced by 726 International Journal of Advanced Research and Development Indian PSUs companies like ONGC, OIL and other private Economy uses a structural VAR approach to understand and players. Crude oil in India is refined and processed by quantify the nature and extent of the impact of oil prices on different PSUs companies like IOCL, BPCL, HPCL and China’s Economy. They observed that an oil-price increase private players like Reliance and Essar. Indian is one of the negatively affects output and investment, but positively affects major importer of crude oil in the world. Mainly from Middle inflation rate and interest rate. East India importing crude oil. Besides now India is also Bhanumurthy, Das & Bose (2012) [1] explored the impact of importing crude oil from Latin America, Africa and Asia- transmission of international crude oil prices and domestic oil Pacific also. price pass-through policy (Administered Prices) on major Thus in line with this effort has been made to study India’s macroeconomic variables in India using a macroeconomic crude oil trade relationship with its major crude oil import policy simulation model. They observed that given the current partners and to study determinants of crude oil import by India policy, one-time oil shock has adverse impact on growth and from its major trading partner countries. inflation in the year of shock and is mitigated slowly over time The remaining part of the paper is as follows. We conducted a and the oil shock and with current partial pass-through regime, literature review keeping in mind the objective of the study a 10 percent rise in oil prices result in a 0.6 percent fall in which shows that crude oil import function of India has rarely growth while in the full pass-through situation, it can reduce been studied by scholar, which has been presented in section the growth by 0.9 percent. Jimenez-Rodriguez and Sanchez 2. Considering major 11 oil trade partner country of India for (2005) [10] have a view that oil consumption is affected the time period 2000 to 2014, we used fixed effect panel data indirectly through its positive relationship with disposable model, which is described in section 3. India’s oil trade income. The magnitude of this effect is in turn stronger the relationship has been examined in section 4 followed by result more the shock is perceived to be long-lasting. and discussion in section 5. The conclusion and policy It is widely accepted that fluctuations in the price of oil have suggestion being most important part of this study has been significant effects on the macroeconomic indicators of a presented in section 6. country. Due to the fact that oil is an important input for various key industries, the fluctuations in prices indeed have 2. Literature Review significant repercussion. According to Hamilton (1983) [7], oil Crude oil is the most indispensable commodity and also the price increases seem to be one of the main cause of recessions most traded product which influences an economy. About 35 in USA prior to 1972. Using a vector auto regression (VAR) percent of the world’s primary energy consumption is met by framework Hamilton (1983, 1996) [7, 8] found a strong causal oil, followed by coal at 25 percent and natural gas at 21 and negative correlation between oil price change and real percent (EIA, 2013). The abundance of natural resources, U.S. GNP growth from 1948 to 1980, i.e. whenever the oil particularly crude oil, has been often described as a blessing to price increased, the US GNP reduced. The study of Mork & many nations since its presence is said to spur economic Olson (1994) [14] opined that any oil price change regardless of growth, by encouraging investment, both foreign and domestic direction causes some costly resource allocation. Thus, if oil for the economic exploitation of the natural resource (Riman, price upturns result in the reallocation of resources an Akpan & Effiong, 2013) [16]. However, the consequences of investment from other sectors to the oil industry, price oil price increase impacts differently amongst countries. downturns exerted an opposite effect. Ceteris Paribus, oil price increase generally is considered to Analysis of the industry-level effects of oil price changes have a positive impact for oil exporting countries and a warrants understanding of the oil price transmission negative impact for oil importing countries, while the mechanisms.
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